It is better to use the search box to the right to find information in this blog rather than the box at the top left hand corner.
For any new readers, RB stands for my Right Brain and LB for my Left Brain, both in a constant state of discord. The Headknocker (HK), the ultimate boss here at HQ, sometimes referred to as the Great Leader with a tinge of sarcasm, is exactly what the name describes, a real hard case, a more enhanced and older version of the young LB sometimes pictured in the profile section of the post. The LB still believes it is 16 years old (or not a day over 21), with a lot of hair, capable of running a mile without drawing a deep breath, without an ounce of body fat, referring frequently to itself as the Young Stock Stud. The LB is the only Focus Machine at HQ.
The Old Geezer (OG) is a more mellow version of the HK, who reads theology and philosophy, and who is at least willing to listen to the RB, but frequently is subject to a case of nerves which has never afflicted the HK for even a nano second. The HK frequently sends the OG to the Old Folks Home for one or more transgressions involving a failure to advance HK's capital position as Head Trader, which is rarely important to the OG, but is the only important matter to the HK.
All of these characters are caricatures of different personality traits of one individual investor, who is finely attuned to all of their voices, now in his fourth decade of managing his own money.
The left brain (LB) is serious, rational, logical, analytical, organized and highly focused, a linear thinker absorbed with details and looking at the parts rather than the big picture. The right brain (RB) is the antithesis of the LB. The RB is subjective, intuitive & led by feelings, impulsive, creative, emotional, unfocused, and capable of seeing the big picture unlike the LB.
Most of these discussions, involving these personalities and brain characteristics, are intended for instructional purposes, and sometimes for humor. The topic of the role played by the brain structure in making investment decisions is explored in Jason Zweig's book : " Your Money and Your Brain: How the New Science of Neuroeconomics Can Help Make You Rich" Zweig would call my LB the reflective brain and my RB the reflexive. The reflexive brain gets the first crack at decision making, often the only crack for many investors, which would be viewed as a mortal sin here at HQ.
Being a prolific and wordy writer, this blog has expanded in a short time to over 1000 posts since October 2008, mostly long ones. Consequently, the best way to find specific information in this blog now is to use the Google search box on the right hand side rather than the search box at the top left hand side.
I would recommend that anyone interested in Trust Preferred, Trust Certificates or other exchange traded bonds register at the free site QuantumOnline.com. That site has links to the prospectuses and has other helpful information including credit ratings and a list of the preferred stocks that pay qualified dividends under current U.S. tax law.
To find information about a firm's bonds, just enter the stock symbol, click go, then scroll to bond in the "search box", and then you will be on the bond page for that company. You can also search for each bond the trades by customized dates at the bottom of each page.
Some links in this post may cease to work with the passage of time.
READERS OF OLDER POSTS HAVE TO ASSUME THAT THE DATA MENTIONED IN SUCH POSTS WAS CURRENT ONLY AT THE TIME SUCH POST WAS WRITTEN, AND THE READER NEEDS TO CHECK FOR MORE RECENT INFORMATION.
ANDY HALL and The Infamous Stringdusters: Andy HALL SINGING LIVE: YOUTUBE VIDEO LINKS
Gateway Posts for Asset Allocation Theory and Practice:
VIX ASSET ALLOCATION MODEL:USING THE VIX MODEL AS A TIMING INDICATOR FOR LONGER TERM STOCK ALLOCATIONS: The market has been in an Unstable Vix Pattern since August 2007, viewed as a dangerous market for most individual investors and all investors facing significant situational risk.
VIX Chart from 2007: Alerts and Triggers Major Disruption of Cyclical Stable Bull VIX Pattern (August 2007)
More on VIX AND ASSET ALLOCATION
Trading and Asset Allocation in Stable and Unstable VIX Pattern
Further Discussion of Volatility and Asset Allocation
Stable and Unstable VIX Patterns Impacting Changes in Allocation to Stocks, Bonds and Cash
Trading and Asset Allocation in Stable and Unstable VIX Pattern
Further Discussion of Volatility and Asset Allocation
Stable and Unstable VIX Patterns Impacting Changes in Allocation to Stocks, Bonds and Cash
Current Status of the Vix Asset Allocation Model (item # 1 6/13/11 Post)
Continuation of Unstable VIX Pattern/Possible Head and Shoulders in the S & P 500 Forming (July 28, 2011 Post)
VIX and Trading Rules in An Unstable Vix Pattern Within the Context of a Long Term Secular Bear Market (8/5/11 Post)
More Discussion on Asset Allocation in Unstable Vix Patterns (item # 3 10/6/11 Post)
Mark Hulbert and the Use of the VIX as a Timing Model/Modification # 1 To Vix Asset Model Approved re: Hedging (October 10, 2011 Post)
Continuation of Unstable VIX Pattern/Possible Head and Shoulders in the S & P 500 Forming (July 28, 2011 Post)
VIX and Trading Rules in An Unstable Vix Pattern Within the Context of a Long Term Secular Bear Market (8/5/11 Post)
More Discussion on Asset Allocation in Unstable Vix Patterns (item # 3 10/6/11 Post)
Mark Hulbert and the Use of the VIX as a Timing Model/Modification # 1 To Vix Asset Model Approved re: Hedging (October 10, 2011 Post)
DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION:Time for a Paradigm Shift in Asset Allocation Theory: Need Dynamism, Better Assessment of All Forms of Risk, and Due Regard to Volatility Patterns
Using Volatility as a Risk Management Tool for Equity Preferred Stocks: Embracing Volatility as A Risk Management Tool In the Sub-Asset Class of Equity Preferred Stock
Stocks for the Long Run and Professor Siegel: To Professor Siegel: Time for a Re-Think The Roller Coaster Ride of the Long Term Secular Bear Market Duality of Long Term Risks Long Term Stock Risks and Situational Risk/Managing Lost Opportunity Risk in a Long Term Secular Bull and Bear Markets 1974 or 1982: Start of Cyclical Bull in a Long Term Secular Bear Market or the Start of Secular Bull Market? More on 1982 or 1974 Continued Discussion on 1982 or 1974 Historical VIX Patterns The Importance of Identifying the Underlying Causes of Long Term Bull and Bear Markets LONG TERM SECULAR BULL PATTERN 1950 TO 1966/ Long Term Secular Bear Pattern from The Great Depression VIX Chart from 2007: Alerts and Triggers Major Disruption of Cyclical Stable Bull VIX Pattern Static v. Dynamic Asset Allocation Instability & Volatility in Asset Correlations
Gateway Posts for Bonds, Preferred Stocks and European Hybrids:
TRUST CERTIFICATES: Trust Certificates: New Gateway Post
FINRA Links to Underlying Bonds In Trust Certificates: LINKS TO FINRA INFORMATION ON UNDERLYING BONDS IN TRUST CERTIFICATES
ING PREFERRED (Hybrid Securities): ING HYBRIDS: Links in one Post
Junk Bond Ladder Strategy
Personal Risk Ratings For Junk Bonds
FINRA Links to Bonds in Junk Bond Ladder Strategy
Realized Gains Junk Bond Ladder Strategy
Year End Junk Bond Ladder Table
Personal Risk Ratings For Junk Bonds
FINRA Links to Bonds in Junk Bond Ladder Strategy
Realized Gains Junk Bond Ladder Strategy
Year End Junk Bond Ladder Table
REIT CUMULATIVE PREFERRED ISSUES: REIT CUMULATIVE PREFERRED LINKS IN ONE POST/Advantages & disadvantages
ETC:
Lottery Tickets: Lottery Ticket Strategy: New Gateway Post
LOTTERY TICKET PURCHASES: LINKS IN ONE POST Lottery Ticket Portfolio Table as of 2/1/2012
LOTTERY TICKET PURCHASES: LINKS IN ONE POST Lottery Ticket Portfolio Table as of 2/1/2012
Last Update of Table 12/23/2011: Snapshot in Item # 4 Regional Bank Basket Table Realized Gains Regional Bank Basket Strategy
There are well over a 1000 posts in this blog and the foregoing are just some of the major stock and bond topics.
4 comments:
I was looking at PAI financials released,
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/nuveeninvest-com/html-story.asp?guid={abb9ae32-eea1-4d04-b2af-f0fd0dd1e918}
it shows .61 of realized gains as yet distributed as ROC(?) this looks unleveraged yet mimics selling we saw in leveraged CEFs to a decent discount. Do your scans show UNleveraged issues also sold more than usual in the last week?
If you adjust for the ex dividend for PAI, its decline was around 1.3%, more in line with the 1.74% decline in the ETF LQD. The leveraged municipal bond CEF NPF fell 3.94% and HPI declined 3.94% also, adjusted for the dividend.
Three other corporate bond funds which do not use leverage that I own are BDF, GDO and IGI. Generally, the unleveraged funds fell less than the leveraged funds with comparable securities. And, since the sell off is tied to changes in interest rate risk perceptions, at least for last week, the bonds with longer durations fell more than ones with shorter maturities which shows that this is an interest rate risk driven correction rather than a credit risk one.
The leverage will magnify the interest rate risk for obvious reasons. When the fund has long maturity bonds, and uses leverage, it will react more negatively than an intermediate term fund with no leverage, when investors become more concerned about interest rate risk. The change in perceptions about interest rate risk is clearly tied to QE2, and its duration is uncertain. Maybe it will continue or maybe it will abate. If it continues, leveraged funds with long bonds will continue to suffer, possibly not as much as the 30 year treasury which would be the most sensitive to changes in interest rate risk perceptions. In fact, as I mentioned, the TLT which is a 20 year plus treasury bond ETF fell 5.12% and is not leveraged.
You can check whether the fund is leveraged at the sponsor's website or at Mornginstar which also has the information. In fact, you can check all of the information for yourself.
The S&P has support at 1260, look at this chart>
http://www.windchart.com/stockta/analysis?symbol=SPY&country=USA&cobrand=stockta
Tuesday-Thurs is an "island top" left out in nowhere land, a break below 1260-1262 is 1250, a break below 1250, you should be out of stocks completely, unless you think the economy is on any "recovery" absent the Fed Mafia putting in $1.5 Trillion indirectly, thru POMO, where the Primary Dealers buy Treasuries and scalp profits, buy the indixes, then repo back to Fed 2 weeks later, this is the greatest Con-jog in US financial history. If QEII Fraud is over, the market is over, and a break below 1250 means be OUT, period, bevcause even dividend stocks will not be spared. I have only $20k in stocks, no reason to participate in this Grand Fraud, or try to short, which is also futile unless you are more nimble then I.
WCO-Wells Fargo TP called, haven't checked the others (not in them) Dodd-Frank allows early call because of regulatory change so paying a premium definitely suicide. Was supposed to go to 2013.
http://www.quantumonline.com/search.cfm
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