tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post451119897396358608..comments2024-03-26T21:50:50.895-05:00Comments on Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: 5/20/19 (PPLPRG, VIVHY)TENNINDEPENDENThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-85105365941406138402017-05-23T21:27:19.316-05:002017-05-23T21:27:19.316-05:00SG - thanks too on Ford. I'm going to call th...SG - thanks too on Ford. I'm going to call this a mistake in handling. It was one of my first individual buys. Got it right after the 2014 QE ending and right before the market pullback that resulted that fall. <br /><br />Good grief - I went to post and was signed out even though I just posted a moment ago.<br />Land of Milk and Honeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16833911218906382663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-76718971423019088292017-05-23T11:51:58.014-05:002017-05-23T11:51:58.014-05:00I have published a new post:
https://tennesseein...I have published a new post: <br /><br />https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/05/observations-and-sample-of-recent_23.htmlTENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-15760134656870862162017-05-23T09:36:07.545-05:002017-05-23T09:36:07.545-05:00LMH: Here is a list of the currently known U.S. in...LMH: Here is a list of the currently known U.S. intelligence agencies:<br /><br />http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-17-intelligence-agencies-20170112-story.html<br /><br />There may be others, off the record.InAvalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11099271792479219061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-71921089385414340462017-05-23T06:55:25.855-05:002017-05-23T06:55:25.855-05:00LMH: The NSA does the electronic interceptions. Th...LMH: The NSA does the electronic interceptions. The Director of National Intelligence is supposed to aggregate and integrate intelligence from all of the intelligence agencies and to provide the President an independent assessment. Dan Coats, its Director, is a cabinet member. <br /><br />I did own 175+ Ford shares but sold all of those shares at a $219.9 loss on 2/15/17 when it looked to me that the price was headed lower. The price was $12.61. The loss was lessened somewhat by realizing a profit on one 50 share lot and some lots bought with dividends. The 50 share lot was bought 1/15/16 at $11.79.<br /><br />Another reason for selling is that new car sales looked to me like they peaked late last year, something that I have mentioned here several times. The prior peaks were near the peak hit last year as shown in this chart: <br /><br />https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ALTSALES<br /><br />I doubt that I would sell at $11 now however, if I still owned shares. I have contemplated buying back one 50 share lot when the price fell below $11 but decided to wait until I see a more positive sales trend than the recent numbers. TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-15019392279660206402017-05-22T22:54:17.565-05:002017-05-22T22:54:17.565-05:00Cathie - :), made me laugh!
Sadly, I do think Tru...Cathie - :), made me laugh!<br /><br />Sadly, I do think Trump is beyond repair. It's no longer a matter of his learning a few skillsets. Too many, way too many ways in which he's not able to do this job properly, and has shown not even understanding of what skills he's lacking. Kusher too doesn't seem like a gem. <br /><br />Saw an interesting media guest's "expert opinion." He said leaks are usually one faction inside trying to get back at another faction inside WH. But these have a different quantity (WAY many more) - and quality to them. They look like real leaking, not policy positioning. Thank goodness for that at least happening or we'd know nothing.<br /><br />Land of Milk and Honeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16833911218906382663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-14313664455239579462017-05-22T22:42:22.595-05:002017-05-22T22:42:22.595-05:00"director of national intelligence, Daniel Co..."director of national intelligence, Daniel Coats (his appointee), and Adm. Michael S. Rogers, the director of the National Security Agency"<br /><br />Do you have information on what intelligence agencies there are? There seem to be so many.<br /><br />Listening to news right now as I type. Have to pause to grrr. WHY do media and guest -need- to keep justifying that as "he's not experienced, and always had authoritarian power in his organizations before" so probably he doesn't know better is why he does this? Being an adult spoiled brat, is not a justification for (alleged) interference! He's never read a book or newspaper or heard any stories about how the world works? Even a 10 year old knows if they tell their mom not to tell their dad what they did - it's "interference" and it's -- risky. <br /><br />(Followed by, he's pandering to his base with the strawman claim that he never mentioned the word Israel, when that's not what anyone alleged.)<br /><br />It reminds me of media during campaign over and over saying "if he stays on message" like his going off message was NOT A STORY all of it's own.<br /><br />At any rate, I'm just wondering who all these intelligence people are, relative to the situation.<br /><br />---<br /><br />F did a big shake up today. As a F holder, I'm hoping it does shake up the stock price. My impression is they've more progressive than other manufacturers, and a survey apparently showed that -- but most investor money thinks they are behind. So they cited need for better communication as a goal in the shake up. I'm well underwater (bought around 16, 3 years ago now), but just holding. Do you have any auto/F observations?<br /><br />Land of Milk and Honeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16833911218906382663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-91603081017243158982017-05-22T18:35:26.966-05:002017-05-22T18:35:26.966-05:00I have performed a nip and tuck in my bond allocat...I have performed a nip and tuck in my bond allocation by selling some bonds, with low current yields, and moving the proceeds into bonds that have higher current yields and YTMs. I am assuming by that reallocation slightly more interest rate risk. <br /><br />I increased my Tennessee municipal bond allocation by another $10K today. Both purchases were 5 bond lots. <br /><br />One of those bonds was issued by the Health and Education Facilities Board of the Metropolitan Nashville Government. The proceeds were loaned to Vanderbilt University pursuant to an unconditional and unsecured loan agreement. <br /><br />Coupon 3.25%<br />Federal Tax and AMT Free According to Bond Counsel (page 12 of offering statement)<br />Matures 10/1/37<br />Optional Redemption at Par: On or After 10/1/22 (a possibility) <br />Credit Ratings: <br />Fitch at AAA<br />Moody's at Aa2<br />S & P at AA<br /><br />EMMA Page: <br />https://emma.msrb.org/SecurityView/SecurityDetailsRatings.aspx?cusip=AF11656226BEACC50F1A37ED390F9D73F<br /> <br />Bought 5 at a total cost of 99.95. <br /> <br />++++++<br /><br />Flynn has refused to produce documents or to answer questions invoking the 5th Amendment. His testimony can not be compelled after asserting that constitutional right, but the protection has far more limited protection to document production. <br /><br />Supreme Court Decision in <br />United States v. Hubbell <br />530 U.S. 27 (2000)<br />https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/530/27/case.html<br /><br /><br />Trump Statement on Those Who Invoke the Fifth: <br /><br />"You see the mob takes the Fifth. "If you're innocent, why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?"<br /><br />He was then referring to a Clinton aide who invoked the 5th in the email investigation. <br /><br />No accusation made by Trump against another person applies to Trump. <br /><br />+++++++++ <br /><br />The Washington Post is reporting this evening that Trump asked the director of national intelligence, Daniel Coats (his appointee), and Adm. Michael S. Rogers, the director of the National Security Agency, to publicly deny the existence of any evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians. This occurred according to two anonymous sources after Comey testified on 3/20/2017 that the FBI was investigating the nature of any links. They refused to do so deeming such a denial to be "inappropriate." <br /><br />The Post also reports that Trump is about to hire a legal team to help him deal with the investigation. <br /><br />++++<br /><br />Manchester Bombing <br /><br />"At Least 20 Killed After Possible Explosions at Manchester Concert Featuring Ariana Grande"<br /><br />http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/deaths-injuries-confirmed-after-explosions-heard-u-k-concert-featuring-n763286<br /><br /> http://www.cbsnews.com/news/manchester-arena-emergency-services-respond-incident/<br /><br /> TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-71844029461651967152017-05-22T15:38:52.097-05:002017-05-22T15:38:52.097-05:00FOLD: Today's largest percentage pop in my sma...FOLD: Today's largest percentage pop in my small cap biotech basket was Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD): <br /><br />$8.41+0.64 (+8.24%)<br /><br />The company has been making some progress in launching drugs in Europe: <br /><br />http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/05/09/980918/0/en/Amicus-Therapeutics-Announces-First-Quarter-2017-Financial-Results-and-Corporate-Updates.html<br /><br />The most recent press release was 3 days ago: <br />http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/05/19/988168/0/en/Amicus-Therapeutics-Announces-Planned-Analysis-of-Primary-Endpoints-in-Phase-3-Epidermolysis-Bullosa-Study.html<br /><br />The company did make a presentation today at a UBS conference: <br /><br />http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/05/10/981738/0/en/Amicus-Therapeutics-to-Present-at-Two-Upcoming-Investor-Conferences.html<br /><br />I bought and still own 50 shares as part of this lottery ticket basket: <br /><br />2. Bought 50 FOLD at $5.72:<br />https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/434935-south-gent/4898825-update-healthcare-basket-strategy-7-15-16TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-36854991488619107812017-05-21T15:01:22.464-05:002017-05-21T15:01:22.464-05:00IMGN (own 50 shares, small cap biotech lottery tic...IMGN (own 50 shares, small cap biotech lottery ticket basket) <br /><br />IMGN has an ovarian cancer drug that is progressing in mid-state trials. <br /><br />http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170517006236/en/ImmunoGen-Announces-Clinical-Data-Mirvetuximab-Soravtansine-Ovarian<br /><br />http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-cancer-immunogen-idUSKCN18D2Q4<br /><br />That release was made after the close on 5/17. The shares closed that day at $4.73 and popped to $5.4 the next day before retreating $.15 on Friday. <br /><br /><br />https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IMGN/history?p=IMGN<br /><br />I needed a 50% rise in my 100 share lot in order to sell those shares profitably which occurred earlier this year.<br /><br /> 3.C. SOLD 100 IMGN AT $3.55:<br />https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/03/observations-and-sample-of-recent_8.html<br /><br />That has proven to be premature in that the shares closed at $5.25 last Friday. <br /><br />I currently own 50 shares bought at $1.77 (12/12/16), now up about 196%. TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-76719424104435486672017-05-21T12:04:16.407-05:002017-05-21T12:04:16.407-05:00Y: I have kept a 100 share position in MACK and ha...Y: I have kept a 100 share position in MACK and have requested my broker to reinvest the upcoming $1.06 per share dividend. I may buy back the recently sold 50 shares, as I mentioned earlier, after the ex dividend date depending on far the price falls below the ex dividend adjusted price. <br /><br />IMDZ may have a public offering to raise money. The company stated that it had enough cash to fund operations into the second half of 2018. <br /><br />The last stock offering was in April 2016 at a public offering price of $6.25: <br /><br />https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1437786/000119312516712112/d234213d424b5.htm<br /><br />The IPO was priced at $12 per share back in 2014.<br /><br />The only other public offering that I found was at $26.5 per share in April 2015: <br /><br /> https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1437786/000162828015002323/imdz424b4041615.htm<br /><br />There is also the possibility that it can obtain financing through a partnership. Without funding from another drug company, IMDZ will need to raise cash within the next 6-8 months. None of the pipeline drugs are in Phase III trials so there is a long way to go before the company has an approved product. <br /><br />With a market cap of $187M at $7.3, the acquisition cost would not be material for larger companies, and IMDZ will not need much success for the price to move up in the absence of being acquired. <br /><br />One reason for using a basket strategy in the small cap clinical biotech space is that no one really knows who will ultimately succeed or who will fail. I have no idea whether one or more of the IMDZ pipeline drugs will succeed. <br /><br />The market is expressing skepticism with the price that any will succeed. <br /><br />The current price is itself indicative of a consensus market opinion that the common stock is more like a warrant or lottery ticket. So the question is how much will I bet, and the answer is not much. And if one of those compounds generates $1B per year in revenues, I would not have to own many shares to have an excellent return. <br /><br />One approach that I am taking now is to sell some shares and to hold onto some. I can do this cost effectively through commission free trades or using IB's $1 commission for odd lot trades. <br /><br />I own for example 60 shares of OMER which has done well. I may sell 30 on another pop and then keep 30 to see what happens. <br /><br />I have followed the same path recently with CYTK and MACK. <br /><br />I am also eliminating some positions and then buying back at lower prices. I have sold PGNX several times, with the last sell at $10.42:<br /><br />C. Sold 50 PGNX at $10.42:<br />https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/02/observations-and-sample-of-recent_5.html<br /><br /><br />I just bought back that lot. <br /><br />The shares have fallen due to disappointing revenues from its one approved drug (Relistor, marketed by Valeant) and less than expected efficacy report for a pipeline compound called Azedra (Phase 2b). <br /><br />Progenics Pharmaceuticals<br />$6.99 -0.17 -2.37%<br />Last Updated: May 19, 2017 4:49 p.m. EDT<br /><br />http://www.progenics.com/product-pipeline/overview/<br /><br />I certainly would view PGNX as more risky now than when I last sold shares. The question is how much of the increased risk is priced into the stock at $7 and that depends on factors that require guesses. TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-56439248470269004572017-05-21T10:52:39.535-05:002017-05-21T10:52:39.535-05:00South Gent,
Thank you for the IMDZ update. I migh...South Gent,<br /><br />Thank you for the IMDZ update. I might sell my shares into this rally. This type of clinical-stage development companies are in constant need of raising capital and I will not be surprised if a stock offering will come soon after all these good news. <br /><br />Separately, I am keeping my MACK shares (at a -6% unrealized loss). I followed your lotto ticket basket strategy to build a small cap biotech basket of 45 positions in late 2016. I have since sold AXON (+69%), VCYT (+22%) and VRAY (+120%). The remaining basket is up 2% from cost, ranging from AVGR (-84%) to STDY (+151%). A daily swing of +/- 5% to 10% is not uncommon to the individual stocks in this basket.<br /><br />The overall weighing of this basket is immaterial but I have learned valuable lessons in the process. I have invested in biotech for some time with varying degree of success but your lotto ticket basket strategy seems more appropriate for my current situation.<br />Y2000https://www.blogger.com/profile/07490088548749061927noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-59577277167614203102017-05-20T13:58:14.629-05:002017-05-20T13:58:14.629-05:00IMDZ, one of small cap biotech lottery tickets, ha...IMDZ, one of small cap biotech lottery tickets, had a pop last Friday: <br /><br />$ 7.30 +$0.60 (+8.96%)<br />Volume 222,901<br />Avg. Volume 90,568<br />Market Cap 186.67M<br /><br />There as some news on the 17th: <br /><br />"New Clinical and Biomarker Data Validate Immune Design’s Lead Programs and Discovery Platforms"<br /><br />http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/05/17/987224/0/en/New-Clinical-and-Biomarker-Data-Validate-Immune-Design-s-Lead-Programs-and-Discovery-Platforms.html<br /><br />http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/05/17/987216/0/en/Immune-Design-Reports-First-Quarter-2017-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Corporate-Update.html<br /><br />Pipeline: <br /><br />http://www.immunedesign.com/pipeline/<br /><br />Major Shareholders: <br /><br />http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=IMDZTENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-61668735761741355662017-05-20T13:11:57.731-05:002017-05-20T13:11:57.731-05:00Cathie: Trump has insulted the CIA repeatedly.
...Cathie: Trump has insulted the CIA repeatedly. <br /><br />I believe that there are multiple leakers that include people in the intelligence services (FBI, CIA, NSA) and one or more people in the White House. <br /><br />The leaks are occurring far more swiftly and in larger numbers compared to prior administrations. A lot of people view Trump as a total nut job who is clearly unfit to be President. <br /><br />It would not surprise me that Kushner is the FBI's person of interest in the collusion probe. <br /><br />He initially failed to disclose contacts with the Russian ambassador and and the head of Vnesheconombank which is personally controlled by Putin. A graduate of Russia's spy school, Sergey N. Gorkov, heads up the bank. <br /><br />He failed to disclose those contacts on his security clearance application. <br /><br />https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/06/us/politics/jared-kushner-russians-security-clearance.html<br /><br />A reporter for the NY magazine has confirmed with 4 sources that Kushner is the person of interest. <br /><br />http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jared-kushner-russia-investigation-trump-song-in-law-probe-person-interest-a7745916.html<br /><br /><br />Kushner is reported to have been the primary moving force behind Comey's dismissal. <br /> <br />I would withhold judgment until more facts are known. <br /><br />This is currently speculation. When speculating, I am speculating when I say that Kushner is the most likely person given the words "close" and "senior advisor" found in the WP article. TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-84714206906665817972017-05-20T09:45:47.609-05:002017-05-20T09:45:47.609-05:00Trumpty Dumpty tweets on his wall.
Kushner will be...Trumpty Dumpty tweets on his wall.<br />Kushner will be the next to fall.<br />All the King's horses and all the King's men,<br />Couldn't put Trumpty together again.<br /><br />(I wonder if, as in the Watergate story, the source of the leaks turns out to be someone at the FBI. Or possibly the CIA, who Trump has insulted too. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/21/cia-donald-trump-first-meeting) InAvalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11099271792479219061noreply@blogger.com