tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post8022989057887093299..comments2024-03-28T09:42:38.695-05:00Comments on Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Observations and Sample of Recent Trades (AZN, BSCL, CCP, CGL:CA, LXP, VOD) TENNINDEPENDENThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-81530818146273766592017-06-20T16:01:50.807-05:002017-06-20T16:01:50.807-05:00I have published a new post:
https://tennesseein...I have published a new post: <br /><br />https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/06/observations-and-sample-of-recent_20.htmlTENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-69747895135689229442017-06-20T11:06:19.825-05:002017-06-20T11:06:19.825-05:00Drug stocks including the biotechs are moving up n...Drug stocks including the biotechs are moving up nicely today. <br /><br />iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB)<br />306.94 +$7.15 (+2.39%)<br />As of 11:58AM EDT<br /><br />SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF (XPH)<br />$42.59+0.60 (+1.44%)<br /><br />My 60 OMER shares now have an unrealized gain of $1K+. <br /><br />Omeros Corporation (OMER)<br />$25.85+1.34 (+5.47%)<br />As of 12:00PM EDT<br /> <br /><br />Some other small cap biotech movers that I own in my basket include: <br /><br />IMDZ 60 shares<br />$7.95+0.40 (+5.30%)<br />As of 11:59AM EDT.<br /><br />ImmunoGen, Inc. (IMGN)<br />$5.56+0.65 (+13.24%)<br /><br />Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR)<br />$18.90+0.51 (+2.77%)<br /><br />Cytokinetics, Incorporated (CYTK)<br />$14.35+0.30 (+2.14%)<br />As of 12:03PM EDT<br /><br />While FOLD is down some so far today, it has had a good % run since closing at $7.66 on 5/30/17: <br /><br />https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FOLD/history?p=FOLD<br /><br />TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-38481415864234119952017-06-18T11:44:05.094-05:002017-06-18T11:44:05.094-05:00Y: Historically, there have been long periods wher...Y: Historically, there have been long periods where the total return for the S & P 500, adjusted for inflation and before taxes, was a significant negative number.<br /><br /> That was the case between 1/1/1966 through July 1982 and between March 2000 through March 2009. <br /><br />The S & P is weighted as a large cap index which means that a substantial number of large capitalization stocks are producing significant negative real rates of return before taxes on dividends. <br /><br />-1.813% Annualized Total Return Adjusted for Inflation January 1966-July 1982 <br /><br />-6.957% Annualized Total Return Adjusted for Inflation March 2000 through February 2009<br /><br />Click Adjust for Inflation Box <br /> http://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/<br /><br />Total return includes dividend reinvestment but has no adjustment for taxes paid on dividends. <br /><br />We were lucky that the financial system was saved from collapse in 2008-2009 or another repeat of the Great Depression period would have occurred. <br /><br />September 1929 through December 1941: -3.784% total annualized returns adjusted for inflation and significant periods of deflation <br /><br />There was a turn in the market for the better with the onset of WWII. A positive trend was in place after the U.S. won the Battle of Midway in June 1942, when the market decided that the U.S. would end up being victorious. <br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Midway<br /><br />A lot depends on the stocks selected in the large cap basket as well. How would a potential retiree have fared by buying GE, PFE, Intel, CISCO, KO and GE in the 1995-2000 period, all of whom may have seemed like good long term investments back then? <br /><br />The total return of GE shares bought on 1/3/2000 through last Friday is a -1.01%. Purchasing CSCO on the same day would have netted a -30.42 total return. Intel's total return over that 17 year period would be .96% per year. <br /><br />But, if I had bought CISCO on 3/8/2009 after the big shellacking, the total return would be 176.03%.<br /><br />At current valuation levels, the reversion to mean valuations would be most painful. <br /><br />And, the odds of a mean reversion caused by a major external shock linked to debt would potentially be more catastrophic than the Near Depression due to exponential and parabolic growth in debt since 2007 worldwide. <br /><br />https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-05/a-record-152-trillion-in-global-debt-unnerves-imf-officials<br /><br />I do not believe McKinsey & Company has updated yet its February 2015 report that showed a $57 trillion increase in global starting in 2008 and into 2014: <br /><br />http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/debt-and-not-much-deleveragingTENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-18494036251747506742017-06-18T10:04:26.687-05:002017-06-18T10:04:26.687-05:00South Gent,
I could not agree with you more that ...South Gent,<br /><br />I could not agree with you more that "...The issue has to be addressed by each individual in the context of their situational risks...". Many of the studies on this subject have a "survival" bias.<br /><br />Re. "... stocks become riskier as time increases ..." a basket of small cap biotech stocks will definitely fit the bill. On the other hand, a basket of diversified large cap stocks might fare better as time increases.Y2000https://www.blogger.com/profile/07490088548749061927noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-9651305417867187112017-06-18T09:08:16.472-05:002017-06-18T09:08:16.472-05:00I will be discussing in my next post two articles ...I will be discussing in my next post two articles that argue that stocks become riskier as time increases, which is contrary to the accepted wisdom. <br /><br />http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-risk-is-much-greater-than-we-thought-2017-06-15<br /><br />https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/06/05/the-latest-look-at-the-total-return-roller-coaster<br /><br />I have discussed this issue in the past including these two posts written in March 2009. <br /><br /> https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2009/03/long-term-stock-risks-and-situational.html<br /><br />https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2009/03/duality-of-long-term-risksstocks-under.html<br /><br />The issue has to be addressed by each individual in the context of their situational risks. TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.com