tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post8269641865805920459..comments2024-03-28T09:42:38.695-05:00Comments on Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Cramer Likes UBSI/Gannett/Links to Fed Tables: Real & Nominal Rates/Dividends & Interest/The Importance of History in the Investing ProcessTENNINDEPENDENThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-47523974934345460302009-12-11T15:50:51.884-06:002009-12-11T15:50:51.884-06:00I would add the following to my last comment. So ...I would add the following to my last comment. So far, EWBC is up almost 300% and WBS is up over 200% since my purchases. And, I still own those two. I am cognizant that there is a duality of risk over long periods of time, a frequent topic of discussion in this blog. In fact, I believe that a longer holding period can increase risk rather than diminish it. I discuss that issue in the following blogs: <br />http://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com<br />/2009/03/duality-of-long-term-risksstocks-under.html<br /><br />http://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com<br />/2009/03/long-term-stock-risks-and-situational.html<br /><br />http://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com<br />/2009/04/rb-wants-to-tell-storyvzposts-on-tax.html<br /><br />By holding EWBC longer, say for another five years, I increase my risk of something going terribly wrong and then losing my profit. On the other hand, if I held another five years, maybe it will go from 5 to 35 too. And maybe one of the banks held in category 1 will go from 3 to 30. That is why I would look at this strategy at the group level rather than focusing on individual security gains or losses. <br /><br />Still I am mindful of the long term risk of the unexpected happening. So, in five years, I may start to take profits in one or more regional bank names. For example, assume EWBC is at $30 in 2015, I may sell even if it could go higher, just to lock in the profit at some point. But the key to this strategy is to let many of the investments run, and culling only when I view a failure is near at hand.<br /><br />I would add that I can afford to patient because I am not risking much capital. The total amount invested so far is not material to me. That is an important psychological factor for the Old Geezer, who has a tendency to hit the sell button during one of his panic attacks.TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-83264037120874471802009-12-11T14:40:58.018-06:002009-12-11T14:40:58.018-06:00LUTHER: All of the bank stock buys since March are...LUTHER: All of the bank stock buys since March are pursuant to a strategy modeled on what worked subsequent to the 1990-1991 near death experience for the banks. The intent is to hold them as a basket, not investing too much in any of them, and hold for five years or more. Occasionally, it will be necessary to sell one when it starts to look like road kill which I did with a small bank in California. I was reading a transcript of its earning call, and the CEO was saying that management had just recognized there was a downturn in the condo market in California. LB said that it knew about that downturn for at least a year before it occurred to this bank CEO, and LB was sitting at a desk in the SUV capital of the world, unable to even see California from his window. That was a sign of something amiss, so I sold, and it later turned out that the bank had not exactly been forthright in taking losses, the management was sacked, and the FDIC later seized it. I sold before all of that happened for a $50 loss. <br /><br />So, that is my strategy for all of these regional bank buys that I add to this post as I make them: http://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com<br />/2009/11/regional-bank-stocksdivorcing-demand.html In short, I am looking for several five baggers over the course of five to fifteen years, and I do not know now which ones will give me that kind of return or whether any will. Maybe one of those that I have placed in Category 1 will surprise me. But several banks produced those kind of returns for purchases made in the 1990-1991 period, and held for 10 years or so. The past is sometimes prologue, history does repeat itself, and this time may or may not be different, or maybe this latest bank debacle is different and the recovery will not be the same, not as robust or taking much longer to happen. So no one knows the future but that is how I am going to play it. <br /><br />But I understand why others would clip profits on fast moves in this kind of dicey and uncertain market. <br /><br />I would hasten to add for the strategy to work, something like a repeat of the 1992 to 2007 period for the banks will need to happen. UBSI, for example, was at over $35 in 2006, twice its current price.TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-36933675493623863612009-12-11T14:14:32.856-06:002009-12-11T14:14:32.856-06:00Speaking of good buys, I noticed a few of your reg...Speaking of good buys, I noticed a few of your regional bank picks had some spikes recently. This particular post mentioned UBSI which is up around 14% since you bought a couple weeks ago. It's probably decreed in a fiat here on the blog by HK or in the "trading rules", but has HT decided to hold for now or take some profit?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04353197462456757440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-71812203317157901882009-12-10T13:27:03.076-06:002009-12-10T13:27:03.076-06:00THANKS Cathie: Sometimes the trading team here at...THANKS Cathie: Sometimes the trading team here at HG hits on a good buy every now and again too. <br /><br /> I do not expect many bold moves from the Old Geezer at the helm of the trading desk today. The OG tried to make a trade a few moments ago, and the LB noted that it was necessary to turn on the Imac first. Then, the OG said let's buy 50 of MI pursuant to the LB/RB Regional Bank strategy, LB said no, and RB said buy a 1,000. OG saw that the spread was 5.86 Ask & 5.87 bid, and entered an order to buy 50 at the limit of 5.84. You know, to save one dollar, and the order was just filled. The OG looked around for the "others" to give him the high five in triumph of his trading acumen but no one has yet to offer congratulations on a job well done, another dollar save is almost as good as two earned, the OG said in closing.TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-6427165483788292942009-12-10T11:23:00.100-06:002009-12-10T11:23:00.100-06:00Two things that make your blog valuable and intere...Two things that make your blog valuable and interesting (to me):<br /><br />1. Your fine-grained knowledge and analysis of historical cycles in markets and politics;<br /><br />2. Your insightful use of alter-egos and sub-personalities, and the continual, amusing balancing act between them. <br /><br />The new blog picture says it all. <br /><br />Many thanks for your efforts!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com