tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post8311970933489377362..comments2024-03-28T09:42:38.695-05:00Comments on Stocks, Bonds & Politics: More on GE/Merrill Lynch Bonuses/Barron's Roundtable/More on AEB-Buy $5.5/add of TGB in IRA/tax law changes: property taxesTENNINDEPENDENThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-40472450017083470002009-01-24T19:59:00.000-06:002009-01-24T19:59:00.000-06:00Patience is the operative word on General Electric...Patience is the operative word on General Electric but one year of patience may be optimistic. Two may be more like it with three possible. For many of my buys now, I am taking a long view of three to five years. This will be true for the purchases of Intel, Cisco, Microsoft, and other Tech Titans. I have the same view of General Electric. I remember 1982 and GE was yielding about 8%, before the start of the long term secular bull market in August 1982, when most stock investors had lost faith in the market. After all, the DJIA was then below where it had been in the late 1960s. I knew someone who bought a couple of hundred shares of GE in early 1982 and kept it for almost 25 years. She ended up with something like 5000 shares and a 30% or so dividend yield based on the original cost. Don't hold me to those figures but they are close. When the economic recovery starts and it will start, GE will recover. Now, GE may start its recovery from 8 or 10 or 12 and who knows the answer to when and where it bottoms. Maybe it will not start to recover this year or even in 2010. All that I can say about buying now is that I believe the odds are in my favor with a 3 to 5 year perspective. And, I have the ability to hold onto these positions for as long as I need to hold in order to make it pay. Strong hands and an even stronger stomach are necessary ingredients now for individual investors. Keeping the dividend as is will give me a head start on my goal for GE. I will buy more if it continues to float down. Unlike institutional investors, I am not concerned with where it may be six months or a year from now and how it might impact my quarter or a year end bonus.<BR/><BR/>During a bull market, I may have 50 small cap names. I got rid of them in 2007. I look at them as a group rather than by focusing on the success or failure of any one or two names. I expect some failures so I try to focus on the group's return. TGB is one of many small caps that I have started to add. TGB is a little thin on cash at less than 30 million and is facing, most likely, a few tough quarters. I would anticipate several quarters of losses, as is the market judging from the last six months of price action. Success or failure will depend on how long economic stagnation continues, which can not be known now. If a recovery starts as the Fed expects in the later half of 2009, and cooper starts a bottoming process (hopefully it has started the bottoming process at the current level), and starts to turn back up late in 2009, then I suspect Taseko to recover. I am not confident one way or the other so I limit my exposure to an issue like this one, usually no more than 300 shares at one time. My risks in small caps is spread over many names in a variety of industries. I prefer names like SNTA, or the large small cap Corrections Corporation (CXW), or an ISIS or even some micro cap names that I have just added. For this small cap, I found that I had to go to TGB's web site to gather more complete information about its financials.TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-59960052750661167402009-01-24T17:05:00.000-06:002009-01-24T17:05:00.000-06:00Amazing how this reflect my thoughts. I just incr...Amazing how this reflect my thoughts. I just increase my GE holdings with a purchase of 100 @ 12.5 and increase my TGB (Taseko) with a purchase of 4000 @ .58 <BR/><BR/>The work here is patience. One or Two years of patience. But these seem like sure BIG winners.Durango88https://www.blogger.com/profile/05688216673080226907noreply@blogger.com