tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post8655271647770493456..comments2024-03-28T09:42:38.695-05:00Comments on Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Bought 100 WLFCP at 10.1/SOLD 100 MSPRA at 21.43/Sold 50 CBG at 13.2/Took Wilshire (WIBC) out of Category 1 and Added 65 Shares at 8.6/OceanfirstTENNINDEPENDENThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-22134447443861606332010-01-22T12:20:16.469-06:002010-01-22T12:20:16.469-06:00Luther: I am sticking with my plan on regional ban...Luther: I am sticking with my plan on regional banks, though I certainly understand the benefits of trading in what I call a long term secular bear market currently in an Unstable Vix Pattern ( a market pattern that is not conducive to long term buy and holds unless the objective is to end up nowhere after about 15 years). I have been mostly in a trading mode for about a decade or so now, going back to around 1998, and the regional bank strategy is an exception to that trading pattern.<br /><br />The market seems to be reacting favorably to the earnings miss from OceanFirst. Institutions will be less concerned about the dividend cut. It is more difficult for me to keep UBSI than OCFC, given the percentage gain that I have in UBSI, and far more difficult to hang onto WBS bought at $4.58 or EWBC at $5.7 than UBSI. Yet, I still own all of the above.<br /><br /> I will end up with something like 30 names in my regional bank strategy, with the intent of keeping most of them for at least five years but no longer than 10. I have already experienced several unexpected gains such as the WBS and EWBC, and I do not know now which ones will ultimately turn into a ten bagger or turn into ashes. I expect both to occur. So that is why I will manage them as a group, mostly selling only after I became convinced the bank is moving toward failure. <br /><br />One benefit of a longer term perspective will be that the dividend yields at my cost will hopefully look very attractive in about 5 years or so for many of these banks. Some like UBSI were already attractive at my entry price. But, on the downside, I could lose my unrealized gain in UBSI pretty quick with one nasty earnings surprise, or even a change in the current perception on the likelihood of a double dip recession on the horizon.TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-7719573188963363832010-01-22T11:37:24.465-06:002010-01-22T11:37:24.465-06:00As always, thanks for your commentary. I was disap...As always, thanks for your commentary. I was disappointed enough with OCFC results yesterday afternoon that I sold my lots bought at 10.04 and 10.30. I was in this for the .20 dividend and maybe made a RB decision to exit the shares. As for another nugget I picked up due to your publishing was UBSI for which I realized a 43%gain since my purchase at 16.65, including dividends and distributions. I was in this for the proverbial "long-haul" but had Jim Cramer's rant "bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered" in my head and ended up realizing the gain, since it jumped to the extent it did in such a short time. Also, the pivot point is 22.70 with the recent "break out" and it really could go either way from here with the next resistance at around 24 and change and support at 21 and change. Thanks for the posts.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04353197462456757440noreply@blogger.com