tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post8992162823569082033..comments2024-03-28T09:42:38.695-05:00Comments on Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Observations and Sample of Recent Trades (ARRY, MNRPRC, MFCPRM, MFCPRN)TENNINDEPENDENThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-72499160989071643872017-01-30T06:55:21.376-06:002017-01-30T06:55:21.376-06:00LMH: Yes, when you look only at internal market dy...LMH: Yes, when you look only at internal market dynamics (e.g. the VIX Model), I do not see anything flashing yellow or red---yet. <br /><br />The market appears only to be consolidating its recent gains in it present movement. <br /><br />The stock market is not going to trade off Trump's Muslim ban. Trump supporters wanted this ban and he gave it to them. <br /><br />Trump will need to do something else, more directly connected to the economy, like starting a trade war with Mexico, Canada and/or China or imposing tariffs/taxes on all imported goods, before the market will take note of his actions. <br /><br />A Trump induced decline would not IMO be properly characterized as a Black Swan since potential negative actions by Trump are known and understood by market participants who make decisions impacting the marginal prices of stocks. <br /><br />It is irrelevant whether individual investors understand or even Trump supporters who manage money. <br /><br />His words will need to translate into actions that the stock market cares about. At the moment, the market is focusing on what it views as the positive implications of a Trump presidency which includes lower corporate taxes, less regulations and the repatriation of foreign cash. <br /><br />I do not agree with the market on those issues. For example, I know that the repatriation holiday passed during the Clinton administration did not result in job creation. The corporations who moved cash back into the U.S. cut jobs on balance. Instead of creating U.S. jobs, the foreign cash was used to increase dividends, buy back stock and increase executive compensation. Those kind of uses will favorably impact someone who owns a lot of stocks but will have no meaningful and long term favorable impact on the economy. <br /><br />I am in not in the capital accumulation mode. Based on my financial circumstances, I do not need to take risks. I am naturally conservative and a frugal spender who has no debt. Both the stock and longer duration bonds have an abundance of risk embodied in their current prices and are based IMO on unrealistic expectations about the future. So, given an appraisal of my own particular circumstances, I am going to go into what I call a bunker mode and wait for incoming, or becoming a turtle who pulls the soft tissue back into the shell when sensing danger as another analogy. TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-54673758396233652152017-01-29T22:09:20.776-06:002017-01-29T22:09:20.776-06:00...so you're saying that Trump does get exerci......so you're saying that Trump does get exercise after all?<br /><br />Most get quite a bit with all the people who's minds he's running through.<br /><br />Explanation made it clearly. Traditional and your own preferred indicators show a content market. It's just the black swan with the orange undertones, that you are hedging for.<br /><br />Now I'm getting comments, but I think not notice of new postings. One of these days all will happen steadily...<br /><br /><br />Land of Milk and Honeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16833911218906382663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-6282422114130686802017-01-27T05:57:46.157-06:002017-01-27T05:57:46.157-06:00LMH: The Vix Model is flashing green with reading...LMH: The Vix Model is flashing green with readings well within the Stable VIX Pattern parameters. The market moved back into a SVP last summer:<br /><br /> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/434935-south-gent/4898841-update-portfolio-positioning-management-7-24-16<br /><br />I do not see anything concrete in the market's price action that would suggest a correction or bear market is in the offing. <br /><br />The recent parabolic increase and stall does not prove that the market is in imminent danger of a major reversal. Parabolic spikes and clearly excessive valuations can continue for months or even a few years before collapsing. The longest parabolic spike for a stock market was probably in Japan between about 1985 and 1989. The Nikkei 250 topped out near 39,000 in 1989 and is now moving closer to 20,000: <br /><br />https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NIKKEI225<br /><br />The parabolic spike in that average starting in 1982 was clearly a dangerous parabola. <br /><br /><br />I would have made the same observation about the U.S. stock market's momentum in 1999 and 2007 when looking at only charts and focusing on price momentum rather than valuations and other fundamental factors including the possibility of black swan type of events. <br /><br />For me, since I am not in an asset accumulation phase, and have no financial need to take risks with the money that I have, I see no reason to be greedy here. I have participated to a significant decree in the market's rise since March 2009. <br /><br />I will keep money in the market as a hedge against my growing pessimism about the lurking dangers being wrong. For example, I will not sell a share of a single T. Rowe Price Mutual fund that I own, and the position in those funds is significant for me. <br /><br />If I start selling individual stock positions bought during the Near Depression, then I have transitioned into the really worried, get me out of here phase which is where I was in 1999. <br /><br />I have later posts than this one. I am now leaving comments here: <br /><br />http://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/01/observations-and-sample-trades-vivhy.html<br /><br />I may have a new post later today. I woke up at 4:00 A.M. this morning with Trump running through my brain cells like crazy. TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-29109604967308005762017-01-26T21:43:02.155-06:002017-01-26T21:43:02.155-06:00I had noticed sometimes double comments, and figur...I had noticed sometimes double comments, and figured out they were edits. There's another program I post to that does the same thing. The delete button works fine on my mail, and takes care of doubles :).<br /><br />Market prices have been climbing, but sentiment is around 50%. So there doesn't seem to be a happy market? Prices are up, but with sentiment not following yet, it's not normally time for the reverse?<br /><br />FG pointed out there's been another DOW theory buy signal and DOW transports made new highs. He's shown charts that DOW theory buy signal has almost never been incorrect about new highs coming.<br /><br />LTTF (an SA user) follows A/D line closely and points out there's breath. Also that all the prior recessions were proceeded by A/D narrowing.<br /><br />So those are indications that the data isn't pointing to a reverse point?<br /><br />I think my last topics, with better segue was:<br />Yesterday VIX closed at around 10.6 or 10.8, but futures are at around 12's. I don't understand why they would be so different.Land of Milk and Honeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16833911218906382663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-35204881674307032432017-01-26T21:25:58.530-06:002017-01-26T21:25:58.530-06:00I had written a long comment which will be hard to...I had written a long comment which will be hard to regeneration. My mind works ... only once :).<br /><br />Then I pressed publish. The page regenerated and simply lost the comment.<br /><br />Then I write that short one that you published, the page regenerated and asked me to sign back in (I had posted yet another prior comment while signed in, so no idea where my sign in disappeared to.)<br /><br />So that's the saga. Until it's a repeat behavior, there's nothing much to assess.<br /><br />Now I will try to recreate my original thoughts.<br />Land of Milk and Honeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16833911218906382663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-15005327076585240832017-01-26T21:03:57.560-06:002017-01-26T21:03:57.560-06:00LMH: I don't understand the problem that you a...LMH: I don't understand the problem that you are having. I have to approve comments before publication. Once I publish a comment, either my own or from a reader, there is an email notification sent to me since I am checking all of the "notify me" boxes. TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-15619931952064927662017-01-26T19:47:48.566-06:002017-01-26T19:47:48.566-06:00Hoping my long comment just now got through becaus...Hoping my long comment just now got through because it didn't notify me that it did. And I did save before posting. I will make a habit of putting to clipboard before posting...Land of Milk and Honeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16833911218906382663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-76786176970352416242017-01-26T19:06:33.072-06:002017-01-26T19:06:33.072-06:00LMH: You will sometimes receive the same comment i...LMH: You will sometimes receive the same comment in two slightly different versions by email. I can not edit a comment after publication; and it hard for me to review prior to hitting the publish button. <br /><br />That leads me to delete the first post quickly when I find an error. I simply drag and drop the comment into another comment box and then correct the typos or other errors. <br /><br />Even if I delete the first version within thirty seconds, it is already on the way to anyone receiving an email feed which occurs after checking the "notify me" box below. It is really a fast delivery directly to your email box. <br /><br />There is no market indication that there will be a problem.<br /><br />It is still onward and upward, a clear blue sky into infinity, as the U.S. economy shifts into a perpetual growth machine. Being naturally contrarian, I have to step back when the herd starts assigning a zero per cent chance to anything upsetting their common vision about what lies ahead and formulate my own opinion based on observed data points that are becoming more concerning everyday now. TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-79233412852641892202017-01-26T18:42:29.253-06:002017-01-26T18:42:29.253-06:00Love that these come to my inbox now. So easy to ...Love that these come to my inbox now. So easy to read and follow long. I can't figure out which way to sit these days. ...so reading for now.<br /><br />There's little market indication that a problem is coming. Unlike usual, the problem if it arrives is black swan type based on news... when we hear someone slip over rolling (missing) marbles, and a they (i.e. congress) files a damages "case." <br /><br />Curious to see your inflation assessment. I would think it would take a couple years for it to come into effect enough to trigger the usual "inflation causes tightening causes recession." So it'd be early to be reacting FOR SOMEONE LIKE me who still needs to build on my funds.Land of Milk and Honeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16833911218906382663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-59243573903088456092017-01-26T18:28:07.798-06:002017-01-26T18:28:07.798-06:00Randy: You may want to read my next post which may...Randy: You may want to read my next post which may be published tomorrow or Saturday. I do not pull any punches. <br /><br />I am starting to cut back on my stock and long bond allocations since I believe the market is seriously mispricing the potential economic and political turmoil that Trump may bring to us all. The market is assigning a zero chance to possible and probable negative consequences which I view as delusional. <br /><br />His policies will likely add to inflationary pressures that are already building. If that proves to be a prescient observation, the Bond Ghouls have it all wrong too. <br /><br />Besides, as I will say in the next post, I do not need to take chances and have done well since March 2009. I am going to accelerate my flight to safety while still maintaining a meaningful allocation to stocks, though at a significantly lower level than now.<br /><br /> TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-52640280903758802302017-01-26T17:32:35.604-06:002017-01-26T17:32:35.604-06:00SG,
I think you are too optimistic on Trump.
Randy...SG,<br />I think you are too optimistic on Trump.<br />RandyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-86666447913924856602017-01-24T12:25:42.320-06:002017-01-24T12:25:42.320-06:00South Gent,
Thank you for the update on ARRY. I a...South Gent,<br /><br />Thank you for the update on ARRY. I also sold out my ARRY position that was bought in 2014. The risk/reward ratio is not as attractive as it once was. Y2000https://www.blogger.com/profile/07490088548749061927noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-45755626259184057342017-01-23T07:21:55.963-06:002017-01-23T07:21:55.963-06:00LMH: It is okay for Trump to lead a GOP birther mo...LMH: It is okay for Trump to lead a GOP birther movement to claim that Obama was not a legitimate President, while it is unforgivable when a Democrat congressman asserts that Trump is not a legitimate President due to Russian interference in the U.S. election and the abundance of fake news originating from Trump supporters. <br /><br />Trump is the legitimate U.S. President. He won the electoral college vote and nothing is gained by claiming otherwise other than to give Kellyann Conway, the Alternate Fact Lady, something to harp on. <br /><br />I enjoyed watching the latest SNL sketch on her: <br /><br />https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/kellyanne-conway/3457926?snl=1TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-83587308601364545032017-01-22T22:15:57.391-06:002017-01-22T22:15:57.391-06:00I see here some thoughts on the speech in the comm...I see here some thoughts on the speech in the comments. (They weren't emailed to me, when last week some were. I have to work on that.)<br /><br />His lack of knowledge of most things government and constitution are beginning to worry me. They were of concern before the vote, but then I hoped they'd turn out to not be as big an issue (since I could do nothing about it). This is a worry area.<br /><br />I had a nice Saturday. Joined in the march. What a large, and very pleasant crowd. I didn't hear any of the podium speeches. Maybe I'll listen online one of these days. Hope for me is pressure will help him see himself as having less of a mandate and be just a little slower on some of those campaign promises and thinking that were off the wall...or at least that some of Congress with see it and do some check and balancing.<br /><br />My favorite chant -<br />"We will not go away, <br />welcome to your first day."<br /><br />Another one, more for fun:<br />"We need a strong leader,<br />not a creepy tweeter."<br /><br />I was disappointed in the media coverage. It wouldn't have taken long to get recordings of these and snaps of the many posters. Instead they focused on themes that weren't present. I saw maybe 2-3 signs about "not my president" and most signs didn't say anything like that (and there were A LOT of signs) -- but even MSNBC had a story with that sentiment as the lead.Land of Milk and Honeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16833911218906382663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-84653877636311217482017-01-22T20:05:37.574-06:002017-01-22T20:05:37.574-06:00GLD: I did add to my GLD position last Friday befo...GLD: I did add to my GLD position last Friday before leaving for the other casino. <br /><br />The reasons are as stated in prior comments and posts. I am basically hedging Trump. <br /><br />I will discuss that trade and some others in a post likely to be published next Wednesday. <br /><br />Tomorrow, I plan to publish a post discussing TIPs. <br /><br />That post will update the last one published on that subject: <br /><br /> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/434935-south-gent/4901042-update-buying-tips-secondary-marketTENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-72193921232595624562017-01-22T17:17:43.847-06:002017-01-22T17:17:43.847-06:00We now have a new phrase for lies:
"Alterna...We now have a new phrase for lies: <br /><br />"Alternate Facts" in an Alternate Universe<br /><br />http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2017/01/22/donald-trump-kellyanne-conway-inaugural-crowd-size/96920632/<br /><br />Are alternate facts consistent with a true conservative ideology? The answer is of course that lying and conservative values are polar opposites. <br /><br />The Associated Press compiled a list of the false statements made by Donald in his inaugural speech. <br /><br />http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/ap-fact-check-trumps-inaugural-speech/<br /><br />In comments to the YF dissemination of that article, the True Believers either dismissed the fact checkers as biased and/or complained that the mainstream media never fact checked Obama's speeches. Both claims merely prove their ignorance. <br /><br />I rarely watch politicians speak, regardless of their party affiliation, but will peruse transcripts when available. It is never difficult to identify Trump knowingly false statements. <br /><br />FactCheck.Org: <br />http://www.factcheck.org/2017/01/president-trumps-inaugural-address/<br /><br />The main takeaway for investors is that Trump's protectionism is alive and flourishing: <br /><br />"Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American families. We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies and destroying our jobs. Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength."<br /><br /><br />The market still assigns a zero chance that Trump will start a trade war notwithstanding his repeated rhetoric to the contrary. The odds are clearly well above zero. <br /><br />NPR has a transcript with comments. <br /><br />http://www.npr.org/2017/01/20/510629447/watch-live-president-trumps-inauguration-ceremonyTENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-45994079013508655732017-01-22T16:25:15.052-06:002017-01-22T16:25:15.052-06:00I think you know that I meant to say the market tr...I think you know that I meant to say the market trough in "March 2009".Y2000https://www.blogger.com/profile/07490088548749061927noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-33449435130800895292017-01-22T15:01:44.239-06:002017-01-22T15:01:44.239-06:00South Gent,
Good job on your last hand of Blackja...South Gent,<br /><br />Good job on your last hand of Blackjack and it was daring. I think if you know what you can afford to lose, you will be able to make such a bet. Many people lost too much money relative to their assets during Financial Crisis and they thought if they stayed any longer, they could be completely wiped out. Not many people saw the market trough in March 2019. <br /><br />I bought GRVY on 6/10/2013 and made a note as "SG LT". But my memory is not as sharp as it used to be and I could have mixed it up with something else. It is difficult to know when to fold or when to cash in these Lottery Tickets.<br /> Y2000https://www.blogger.com/profile/07490088548749061927noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-44267787094255099562017-01-22T10:24:15.023-06:002017-01-22T10:24:15.023-06:00Y: I do not own GRVY now and do not recall ever ow...Y: I do not own GRVY now and do not recall ever owning it. <br /><br />I had an eventful trip yesterday to the Tropicana Casino in Evansville, Indiana, a nice town located on the Ohio River. <br /><br />My last surviving Uncle who is 88 likes to play the slots and the Casino is most generous in giving him free play, free rooms and free meals. He can not drive up there, so I take him and play blackjack. Pushing a button and having a computer decide my fate are not sources of entertainment for me. <br /><br />It is never good to get frustrated with an investment that goes down in price. The emotional reaction to losing money is frequently the wrong one as shown by those who exited the stock market in October 2008 to relieve the pain of losing. <br /><br />I only experience that kind of emotional reaction when playing Blackjack for inconsequential sums of money. <br /><br />On Saturday morning, I was ready to drive home, but my Uncle had to play the slots again, hoping to recoup the losses suffered in the previous evening session. <br /><br />Having nothing better to do, I sat down at the Blackjack table again and was promptly burned $1K in incredibly bad hands that seemed like a long term secular bear market in cards with no end in sight. <br /><br />I was down to $475 so I moved the entire pile out to play one last hand over Left Brain's strenuous protests. The table limit is $500 per hand so the bit boss was called over to inspect my towering pile of chips sitting on that small circle. <br /><br />The women to my right gasped and one said that I was making her nervous. <br /><br />The dealer dealt me a 14 (10 +4), which was the norm. The dealer had an 8 showing. The math says that I have to draw a card or so I am told by those who have done the math. I am supposed to win more hands that way. Either way, I am a probable loser but will lose fewer times by drawing rather than standing pat. <br /><br />Prior to that draw, all previous draws to a bust hand that morning had lost so I was thinking that something was wrong with the math. <br /><br />I miraculously did not bust, drawing a 5 that gave me a 19. <br /><br />The dealer turned over the whole card, displaying to my relief a face card. The dealer lost by 1 point. And, I was in one stroke within 50 dollars of being even. <br /><br /> <br /> TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-30655878477951584192017-01-22T09:33:22.993-06:002017-01-22T09:33:22.993-06:00South Gent,
South Gent,
Do you still have your l...South Gent,<br /><br />South Gent,<br /><br />Do you still have your lottery ticket, GRVY? Up almost 600% in a year. It is up over 100% from 2013 when you first mentioned it.Y2000https://www.blogger.com/profile/07490088548749061927noreply@blogger.com