tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post96217440375537622..comments2024-03-28T09:42:38.695-05:00Comments on Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Observations and Sample of Recent Trades (ARCC, GAM, BP): 2/15/ 2017/Donald Trump and His Russia Problems TENNINDEPENDENThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-75258525552324510732017-02-16T09:15:26.999-06:002017-02-16T09:15:26.999-06:00I have published a new post:
Observations and Sa...I have published a new post: <br /><br />Observations and Sample of Recent Trades (ADX, BIF, NNNPRF, VEIRX): February 16, 2017<br /><br />http://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/02/observations-and-sample-of-recent_16.html<br />TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-47913936300266290182017-02-16T09:09:53.797-06:002017-02-16T09:09:53.797-06:00LMH: Gold and liquor might both work.
I have bee...LMH: Gold and liquor might both work. <br /><br />I have been discussing gold as potentially one of the best Trump trades. For gold to really shine, chaos will need to move up from the current high levels to extreme with obvious repercussions for the U.S. and/or worldwide economy. <br /><br />As I recently predicted, we have seen and will continue to see a number of firsts for a U.S. President. TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-3902145314659015802017-02-16T09:02:56.867-06:002017-02-16T09:02:56.867-06:00Goldcorp (own): GG is moving up this morning after...Goldcorp (own): GG is moving up this morning after reporting better than expected 4th quarter earnings. I own both GG and G:CA: <br /><br />Goldcorp Inc.(GG)<br />$17.41 Change +0.75 +4.50%<br />Volume 1.63m<br />Feb 16, 2017, 9:59 a.m<br /><br />GG reported net E.P.S. of $.12<br /><br />http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/goldcorp-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2016-results-613878783.html<br /><br />"Gold production of 761,000 ounces at substantially lower all-in sustaining costs ("AISC") of $747 per ounce, compared to 909,000 ounces at AISC of $977 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2015."<br /><br />Gold mining stocks almost never report what I would consider good earnings, but they can report what I would characterize as substantial losses. <br /><br />I first discussed the purchase of the Toronto listed shares: <br /><br />Scroll To <br />5. GOLD:<br />B. Bought 50 Goldcorp at C$19.23:<br />http://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/01/observations-ruminations-and-sample.html<br /><br />I then discussed buying GG: <br /><br />Scroll to <br />5. Continued to Add to Gold Mining Stocks as a Hedge-Impact of Border Adjustment Tax <br />A. Bought 50 GG at $16.88 (used commission free trade)TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-42925454801241850392017-02-15T21:01:40.154-06:002017-02-15T21:01:40.154-06:00Well that was incoherent.
I look forward to seein...Well that was incoherent.<br /><br />I look forward to seeing if he ever got close to a reply on the topic.<br /><br />You've spilled blood red, paint wildly.<br /><br />We got hired and deserve to be here and exceeded expectations in bidding to be here... so don't question us!<br /><br />Do I buy gold or liquor? My niece at a young age had the thoughtful idea that you can't do much with gold, but people seem to like liquor, especially if they are upset.<br /><br />I look forward to the writeup.<br /><br />I listened to the Yellen interview, but didn't hear anything noticeable. Her answer, and it was logical was, we couldn't raise because the economy wasn't hotter. Why couldn't you make it hotter? That's not in our power. But you're raising now. Because it's finally near 2% yes. So why didn't you raise before? All while interrupting her constantly.<br /><br />I didn't listen to all of today.<br />Land of Milk and Honeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16833911218906382663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-76158208305769065242017-02-15T20:46:50.372-06:002017-02-15T20:46:50.372-06:00LMH: Tomorrow I will publish a question posed to T...LMH: Tomorrow I will publish a question posed to Trump today by an Israeli reporter during the news conference with the P.M. and Trump's full answer. <br /><br />I will just quote the question and Trump's first response here: <br /><br />QUESTION<br />Mr. President, since your election campaign and even after your victory, we've seen a sharp rise in anti-Semitic -- anti- Semitic incidents across the United States. And I wonder, what do you say to those among the Jewish community in the states and in Israel and maybe around the world who believe and feel that your administration is playing with xenophobia and maybe racist tones?<br /><br />DONALD TRUMP<br />Well, I just want to say that we are, you know, very honored by the victory that we had -- 306 electoral college votes. We were not supposed to crack 220. You know that, right? There was no way to 221, but then they said there's no way to 270. And there's tremendous enthusiasm out there."<br /><br />http://www.npr.org/2017/02/15/514986341/watch-live-trump-netanyahu-hold-joint-press-conference-at-white-houseTENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-43421250697717406042017-02-15T20:37:32.788-06:002017-02-15T20:37:32.788-06:00There's so much cognitive dissonance to deal w...There's so much cognitive dissonance to deal with.<br /><br />Watching Trump and using any sort of logic, there's so much that's not presidential material and is clown-like. He's lacking so many basics, that it's hard to believe...<br /><br />... that Yet voters voted for him and even are mad that these deficits are labeled and the media mentions them. Calling it "denigrating" of him. It's the opposite. He denigrated himself by acting outrageous. More than outrageous, he denigrated himself by acting out, and acting loony, and by using mean-ness. Not being mean so coming up with nasty attacks to share with voters. That's normally happened. But by being mean as a positive value, and something for others to follow. No shame on it at all. THAT's what makes him so different.<br /><br />I'm just venting. But it leaves me to the cognitive dissonance. He's so inexperienced he can't step into the job. Yet he's seriously in the position. I keep expecting him to disappear because that would be consistent with the information I can observe. Clown acting people don't get to stay in seriously responsible positions. That's just life. Why isn't it life this time?<br /><br />At the same time the market thinks he's great for the economy and that the non-economic risks won't spill over.<br /><br />He's too inept to know how to cleverly manipulate as shown by his reactions to various things where a little cleverness would have avoided the problem. Yet he somehow, or his staff, was connected with Russia and he was able to manipulation enough people, that this didn't come out.<br /><br />I can't grab enough to figure out what paths make sense investing wise. I'm still in accumulation so I can't be a slow turtle climbing up a ramp to a shelter.<br /><br />So that's my position as of today.<br /><br />Land of Milk and Honeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16833911218906382663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-24459947142879289552017-02-15T18:44:09.723-06:002017-02-15T18:44:09.723-06:00CISCO (own): CSCO reported non-GAAP E.P.S. of $.57...CISCO (own): CSCO reported non-GAAP E.P.S. of $.57 per share, one cent better than the consensus, and raised the quarterly dividend to $.29 per share from $.26. <br /><br />Cisco rose $.51 to close at $32.82 during regular trading hours and rose and $.64 in after hours trading in response to this report. <br /><br />After Hours<br />$33.46 Change +0.64 +1.95%<br />Volume 2.62m<br />Feb 15, 2017 7:21 p.m<br />http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Stock/CSCO<br /><br />My last foray into this stock was discussed in some comments at SA. <br /><br />I own only 80 shares. <br /><br />A 30 share lot was bought in my IB account at $23.09 on 1/28/16. <br /><br />A 50 share lot was bought in my Schwab taxable account at $22.96 on 1/21/16. <br /><br />The new dividend yield based on $.29 per quarter or $1.16 annually would result in about a 5.04% dividend yield at a total cost of $23 per share. <br /><br />Those prices were lower than an elimination near $24.31 in August 2010 and at $24.42 in November 2010. <br /><br />Some of those prior round trip trades are discussed here: <br /><br />November 19, 2013 Post<br />4. Sold 105+ CSCO at $21.2<br />http://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2013/11/sold-105-csco-at-212bought-50-gdo-at.html<br /><br />Anyone buying CSCO in the late 1990s bubble will have a very long wait before returning to even. <br /><br />The price touched $80 in 2000: <br /><br />https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ACSCO&ei=U_OkWInTG4eqjAGS4auAAQ<br /><br />My most significant liquidation today was 113+ shares of Merck at $65.28 as I continue moving very slowly toward my bunker. <br /><br />Trump did tell retail executives that tax cuts were coming soon. They are generally opposed to the border tax. <br /><br />John Harwood notes that some Senate Republicans are strongly opposed to that linchpin in the House's existing plans that are publicly available. <br /><br />http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/15/why-trump-hasnt-moved-on-health-care-tax-cuts-infrastructure.html<br /> TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-7955490915009609662017-02-15T16:10:21.233-06:002017-02-15T16:10:21.233-06:00Craig Valliere threw some cold water on the percep...Craig Valliere threw some cold water on the perception that Trump's agenda faced smooth sailing through Congress. <br /><br />The GOP is in various stages of infighting on Trump's proposal and the Democrats are being pushed into a non-cooperation stance by the increasing fury of their members. <br /><br />A similar event occurred after Obama was elected in that the GOP just dug in their heels and refused any cooperation on all major issues. <br /><br />A number of Democrats voted for the Bush tax cuts. I doubt that the GOP could round up more than 1 Democrat vote in the Senate. Joe Manchin from West Virginia may not have to worry about facing off against a republican in his 2018 senate re-election effort since he may very well be eliminated in the primary if he continues voting with the GOP.<br /><br />http://www.barrons.com/articles/trumps-top-legislative-goals-are-bogged-down-1487184293?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_3<br /><br />If the GOP goes ahead with the Border Tax, they will be beaten over the head in 2018 with a very simple pitch. The Democrats will only need to say that the middle class received a tax increase from the GOP in order for them to cut the taxes of large corporations who are their benefactors. The DEMS need to repeat a catchy slogan with that thought over and over and over again. <br /><br />So Valliere is missing the big picture problem when he says some GOP lawmakers are buckling to the retailers' opposition. While that is an issue, the more important one is whether the GOP politicians are willing to vote for a tax increase for every American disguised as a 20% tax on imports in order to pay for a corporate tax cut.TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-57905689937618964722017-02-15T12:46:38.422-06:002017-02-15T12:46:38.422-06:00Sam: In comments posted at SA on 11/9/16, I said t...Sam: In comments posted at SA on 11/9/16, I said that the stock market would go up and the bonds down after Trump was elected. The question is how far and how long will the Stock Jocks push the market up. <br /><br />I frequently discuss the long term cycles issues here and elsewhere. Several of the posts are linked under the heading "Situational Risks and Asset Allocations" and "Long Term Stock Cycles". <br /><br />Scroll down the right side of the blog until you see those headings. <br /><br />The market has been going up over time as the U.S. economy grows. That is hardly news. <br /><br />There are three major problems with Baron's general statement. <br /><br />(1) There are prolonged periods where the market goes nowhere and even produces negative real rates of return with dividends reinvested. Some stocks may outperformed during those periods. Those periods include 1929-1949, 1966-1982 and 2000-March 2009. <br /><br />(2) Most Individuals have a short time span to save meaningful amounts of money and is not particularly helpful to note what the S & P 500 has done since 1/1/1950. <br /><br />(3) Most individuals face situational risks where they have to spend savings. If one of those periods occurs during a long term secular bear market, the potential for bad long term results is enhanced. <br /><br />I do not have a problem with those in an accumulation phase holding blue chips or low cost and broad based stock index funds over that entire accumulation life cycle period. Some individual stocks may need to be jettisoned at clearly excessive valuations. For example, KO was at a higher price in 1998 than now. GE was over $55 in 2000 and is struggling now to keep its head over $30. <br /><br />For those who are no longer in an accumulation phase, there needs to be a realistic assessment of expenses over the remaining life span and whether the current portfolio and other income sources like a pension or SS are likely to meet those future expenses without making material changes. <br /><br />I can not answer that crucial question for those reading this blog. I can only answer for myself and family members. <br /><br />As I have noted here many times, the asset allocation decisions are inextricably tied to one's individual personal needs and resources. <br /><br />I personally do not need to take any risks and would be able to pay all future expenses, including an extended 10+ year nursing home stay and 24/7 caregiver services, by taking no risks now. That explains why I am pulling back into safer assets now than stocks or long duration bonds. TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-44109482420373598102017-02-15T12:22:17.820-06:002017-02-15T12:22:17.820-06:00"Influential conservative group: Trump, DeVos..."Influential conservative group: Trump, DeVos should dismantle Education Department and bring God into classrooms"<br /><br /><br />https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/influential-conservative-group-trump-devos-should-dismantle-education-department-and-bring-god-into-classrooms/2017/02/15/196bf872-f2df-11e6-8d72-263470bf0401_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_devos-1230pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.d5ba47c2113bTENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-10376512792805072142017-02-15T11:40:33.441-06:002017-02-15T11:40:33.441-06:00hello Southgent,
I saw Ron Baron on CNBC this mor...hello Southgent,<br /><br />I saw Ron Baron on CNBC this morning. He said recently he spoke in front of a bunch of hedge fund managers and basically told them that they are trying to predict the unpredictable, for example the were wrong about Trump. <br /><br />That the market would rise after a Trump victory.<br /><br />His theory is that he is a very very long term investor. And he stated as per this link that the economy doubles every 12 years or so and the stock markets doubles with it.<br /><br />He said half of his investing success is related to holding 15 stocks over the long that is 10 to 15 years.<br /><br />I know his success came through the teeth of a huge bull market starting in 1992<br /><br />I wonder what you thought of his approach and if you know anything about his theory of the stock market and the economy.<br /><br />Thanks<br /><br />http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/15/the-full-interview-with-legendary-ron-baron-on-his-investment-approach.htmlSAMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06029551122822282286noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2986124651030959736.post-72742188940785041232017-02-15T08:14:20.914-06:002017-02-15T08:14:20.914-06:00CPI: The government reported that seasonally adjus...CPI: The government reported that seasonally adjusted CPI increased .6% in January, the largest increase since February 2013. <br /><br />Over the 12 month period ending in January, the non-seasonally adjusted CPI increased 2.5%. <br /><br />Core CPI was up 2.3% Y-O-Y. <br /><br />Among the core categories, inflation trends remain problematic in the following categories Y-O-Y<br /><br />Medical care commodities +4.7%<br />Services Less Energy Services +3.1%<br />Shelter +3.5%<br />Transportation Services +3.2%<br />Medical Care Services +3.6%<br /><br />https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm<br /><br />I believe that it is probable that inflationary pressures will continue to build and will then accelerate when the Trump administration adds to fiscal stimulus through tax cuts and spending increases. <br /><br />Among the hot categories in the detailed listings are the following: <br /><br />Health Insurance +4.8% (highly suspect given Obamacare rate increases) <br />Motor vehicle insurance 7.5%<br />Rent of primary residence 3.9%<br />Inpatient hospital services 4.6%<br />Cable and satellite television and radio service 5.3%<br />Legal services 6.6% <br />Repair of household items 4.9%<br />Financial services 4.4%<br /><br />https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t02.htm<br /><br />The Bond Ghouls do not like this report. <br /><br /><br /> TENNINDEPENDENThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17444227958539559639noreply@blogger.com