Loan Demand:
Business demand for bank loans was weaker in the first quarter, Fed survey finds - MarketWatch
The Fed - Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
April 2017 Survey
Net interest margin for banks is not increasing. Net Interest Margin for all U.S. Banks
++++++++
Crude Oil:
EIA raises 2017 U.S. oil production outlook and cuts oil-price forecast - MarketWatch
Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)
North America Rig Count | BakerHughes.com
+++++++
China:
Here’s how China’s credit crackdown could derail the U.S. stock market - MarketWatch
+++++++++
Mostly Politics:
Trump is continuing of course his now routine attacks on the free press. After Russia hearing, Trump decries "taxpayer funded charade" - CBS News
Several of those tweets from May 9th repeated his now standard visceral attack on the Russian investigation and the press:
In the first of those tweets, Trump calls the Russian investigation a total hoax and asks when it can be put to an end.
Trump then fired the FBI Director on 5/9/17 allegedly based on the recommendation of Jeff Sessions, who has zero independence from Donald, and the just installed Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.
Source close to Comey says there were 2 reasons the FBI director was fired - CNN (Comey would not swear allegiance to Trump and he was accelerating the Russian investigation); Russia probe was picking up speed before Comey firing, sources say - CBS News
Comey infuriated Trump with refusal to preview Senate testimony: aides | Reuters
Comey had reportedly just requested additional funding for the Russian investigation:
Comey sought more money for FBI's Russia probe days before he was fired by President Trump, officials say - The Washington Post;
Days Before Firing, Comey Asked for More Resources for Russia Inquiry - The New York Times
James Comey asked DOJ for more resources for Russia investigation - CBS News
The request for additional funding was reportedly made to Mr. Rosenstein, a republican who is now the Deputy Attorney General, and the guy Trump is using now to provide cover for him. (a Justice Department spokesman, Sarah Isgur Flores, denied that Comey had requested more funds, calling the news stories "totally false" according to the NYT)
The Washington Post has reported that Rosenstein was told by Trump to come up with reasons to fire Comey. Inside Trump’s anger and impatience-and his sudden decision to fire Comey - The Washington Post
Bad Optics. Bad JuJu.
Comey reportedly found out about his dismissal from watching a television screen during a meeting with FBI employees in L.A. Washington Post This sends a strong signal to other FBI agents who are willing to pursue the Russian investigation.
FBI Directors are appointed to ten year terms, and Comey had 6 more years left in his term.
The purported reason given by Trump's Justice Department appointees relates solely to old news about Comey's handling of the Clinton email investigation last year.
Kellyanne Conway says that it is "inappropriate" for anyone to question the timing.
Intercepted Russian Communications Part of Inquiry Into Trump Associates - The New York Times
I suspect that Trump simply wanted Comey gone due to his support of the ongoing Russian investigation, and a refusal to grovel.
Sessions and Rosenstein were willing to oblige Trump with a recommendation that Comey be fired, thereby providing the illusion for the weak minded that an independent Justice Department had concluded that Comey had to go rather than Donald making the usual visceral decision with his two political appointees groveling to satisfy his desires and to provide cover for him.
Comey's abrupt dismissal after his unfavorable testimony will look like obstruction of justice to several million voters and is reminiscent of the Saturday Night Massacre during the Nixon administration, which was part of Nixon's efforts to obstruct justice. In Trump’s Firing of James Comey, Echoes of Watergate - The New York Times
I would just say with reasonable certainty that Comey had lost support from republicans and democrats for different reasons.
The Republicans wanted Hillary charged with crimes shortly before the election for political purposes, and most want to put the Russian investigation behind the party as quickly as possible. Mitch McConnell and other republicans will do whatever they can to snuff out any prospect of an independent investigation while paying lip service to finding out the facts.
(If Clinton had won, the GOP dominated House Judiciary Committee would have voted out already Articles of Impeachment, and we would now be inundated with "Lock Her Up" rallies led by Trump.)
The Democrats were upset that Comey broke with long standing FBI practice by publicly disclosing matters relating to Clinton's email investigation, including his opinions about the evidence, and by failing to disclose matters relating to an ongoing investigation of Russia's efforts to elect Trump.
Donald Trump Is Lying Again, Now About James Comey - The New York Times
Trump Went From Praising Comey to Firing Him in Less Than Seven Months - NBC News
At the present time, I do not believe the foregoing will have a non-temporary, measurable impact on stock prices. When and if there is cogent proof presented that shows collusion between Trump's campaign and Russian intelligence, then you could start to see some negative economic repercussions. No such proof has been offered yet and will not be accepted by most republicans when and if uncovered.
Trump is certainly not acting like an innocent man.
Democrats believe a cover up is already in motion orchestrated by Trump, other republican politicians, and the Sessions' led Justice Department. They are in no mood to cooperate with the republicans on anything major.
It is certainly possible that Trump is becoming so radioactive in Washington that his agenda is in serious jeopardy. The Stocks Jocks will need to see that happen before accepting that outcome as a reasonable possibility.
Trump may have only a limited window in time to pass legislation. By this time next year, it may very well be too late. A loss of the Senate or House in the 2018 election would make him a lame duck. At a minimum, he is doing everything possible, other than hanging democrats on the capital steps, to energize the opposition turnout in a mid-term election.
The June 20 special election in the Georgia's 6th congressional district, a reliable GOP district, may provide some indication about the growing dissatisfaction. Tom Price received 61.7% of the vote in the 2016 election, but vacated the seat when he became Trump's Secretary of Health and Human Services. The special election has already become the most expensive in U.S. history. Georgia special election smashes all-time spending record - POLITICO It is possible that the firing of Comey may be just enough to elect the Democrat Jon Ossoff who was doing well in the polls before that event.
+++
Most republicans are avoiding town hall meetings during the current recess. At Town Hall Meeting, Republican Lawmaker Gets An Earful : NPR
One republican congressman from Iowa, the right wing reactionary Rod Blum, pre-screened attendees to make sure that they lived in his district, but that did not keep him away from angry constituents. Iowa congressman walks out of a TV interview and into an angry town hall meeting-The Washington Post Blum receives substantial funding from entities that are domiciled outside of his district. Rep. Rod Blum: Campaign Finance/Money - Top Donors - Representative 2016 | OpenSecrets Those contributors would not be excluded from a meeting.
+++
Kushner Family Stands to Gain From Visa Rules in Trump’s First Major Law
The Trump and Kushner families will certainly be better off by the implementation of Donald's policies. Trump's proposed tax law changes, the Trump-Kushner Tax Relief Act, are designed to substantially lower the Trump/Kushner families tax bill and others similarly situated. The question is whether Trump's middle class supporters will see any meaningful economic benefit. We shall see in the fullness of time.
Yates Fuels Questions About Trump's 18-Day Delay in Firing Flynn-Bloomberg
Muslim ban language wiped from Trump campaign website - CBS News
Here is how the House GOP health care bill would affect employer-based insurance - CBS News
Lie Witness News: Trumpcare Edition-Jimmy Kimmel Live- YouTube
What ever happened to the voter fraud investigation led by the V-P? Trump was going to investigate voter fraud. What happened? - CNN
We are still waiting for Trump to file libel suits against the women who accused him of sexual harassment and battery. Donald Trump Says He Will Sue Sexual Misconduct Accusers | Time.com
Trump: I will sue my accusers after the campaign - YouTube (big time jerk); Donald Trump "HUGE" "YUGE" Compilation - YouTube
Trump Bars U.S. Press, but Not Russia’s, at Meeting With Russian Officials - The New York Times
++++++++++
Warren Buffett:
Buffett recently stated that stocks "stocks are dirt cheap", provided interest rates remain near current levels or increase only modestly over the next ten plus years. Buffett: Bonds ‘Terrible’ In Comparison to Stocks - Barron's; Buffett: Low Rates Make Stocks 'Dirt Cheap'
+++++++++++
1. Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
Business demand for bank loans was weaker in the first quarter, Fed survey finds - MarketWatch
The Fed - Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
April 2017 Survey
Net interest margin for banks is not increasing. Net Interest Margin for all U.S. Banks
++++++++
Crude Oil:
EIA raises 2017 U.S. oil production outlook and cuts oil-price forecast - MarketWatch
Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)
North America Rig Count | BakerHughes.com
+++++++
China:
Here’s how China’s credit crackdown could derail the U.S. stock market - MarketWatch
+++++++++
Mostly Politics:
Trump is continuing of course his now routine attacks on the free press. After Russia hearing, Trump decries "taxpayer funded charade" - CBS News
Several of those tweets from May 9th repeated his now standard visceral attack on the Russian investigation and the press:
In the first of those tweets, Trump calls the Russian investigation a total hoax and asks when it can be put to an end.
Trump then fired the FBI Director on 5/9/17 allegedly based on the recommendation of Jeff Sessions, who has zero independence from Donald, and the just installed Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.
Source close to Comey says there were 2 reasons the FBI director was fired - CNN (Comey would not swear allegiance to Trump and he was accelerating the Russian investigation); Russia probe was picking up speed before Comey firing, sources say - CBS News
Comey infuriated Trump with refusal to preview Senate testimony: aides | Reuters
Comey had reportedly just requested additional funding for the Russian investigation:
Comey sought more money for FBI's Russia probe days before he was fired by President Trump, officials say - The Washington Post;
Days Before Firing, Comey Asked for More Resources for Russia Inquiry - The New York Times
James Comey asked DOJ for more resources for Russia investigation - CBS News
The request for additional funding was reportedly made to Mr. Rosenstein, a republican who is now the Deputy Attorney General, and the guy Trump is using now to provide cover for him. (a Justice Department spokesman, Sarah Isgur Flores, denied that Comey had requested more funds, calling the news stories "totally false" according to the NYT)
The Washington Post has reported that Rosenstein was told by Trump to come up with reasons to fire Comey. Inside Trump’s anger and impatience-and his sudden decision to fire Comey - The Washington Post
Bad Optics. Bad JuJu.
Comey reportedly found out about his dismissal from watching a television screen during a meeting with FBI employees in L.A. Washington Post This sends a strong signal to other FBI agents who are willing to pursue the Russian investigation.
FBI Directors are appointed to ten year terms, and Comey had 6 more years left in his term.
The purported reason given by Trump's Justice Department appointees relates solely to old news about Comey's handling of the Clinton email investigation last year.
Kellyanne Conway says that it is "inappropriate" for anyone to question the timing.
Intercepted Russian Communications Part of Inquiry Into Trump Associates - The New York Times
I suspect that Trump simply wanted Comey gone due to his support of the ongoing Russian investigation, and a refusal to grovel.
Sessions and Rosenstein were willing to oblige Trump with a recommendation that Comey be fired, thereby providing the illusion for the weak minded that an independent Justice Department had concluded that Comey had to go rather than Donald making the usual visceral decision with his two political appointees groveling to satisfy his desires and to provide cover for him.
Comey's abrupt dismissal after his unfavorable testimony will look like obstruction of justice to several million voters and is reminiscent of the Saturday Night Massacre during the Nixon administration, which was part of Nixon's efforts to obstruct justice. In Trump’s Firing of James Comey, Echoes of Watergate - The New York Times
I would just say with reasonable certainty that Comey had lost support from republicans and democrats for different reasons.
The Republicans wanted Hillary charged with crimes shortly before the election for political purposes, and most want to put the Russian investigation behind the party as quickly as possible. Mitch McConnell and other republicans will do whatever they can to snuff out any prospect of an independent investigation while paying lip service to finding out the facts.
(If Clinton had won, the GOP dominated House Judiciary Committee would have voted out already Articles of Impeachment, and we would now be inundated with "Lock Her Up" rallies led by Trump.)
The Democrats were upset that Comey broke with long standing FBI practice by publicly disclosing matters relating to Clinton's email investigation, including his opinions about the evidence, and by failing to disclose matters relating to an ongoing investigation of Russia's efforts to elect Trump.
Donald Trump Is Lying Again, Now About James Comey - The New York Times
Trump Went From Praising Comey to Firing Him in Less Than Seven Months - NBC News
At the present time, I do not believe the foregoing will have a non-temporary, measurable impact on stock prices. When and if there is cogent proof presented that shows collusion between Trump's campaign and Russian intelligence, then you could start to see some negative economic repercussions. No such proof has been offered yet and will not be accepted by most republicans when and if uncovered.
Trump is certainly not acting like an innocent man.
Democrats believe a cover up is already in motion orchestrated by Trump, other republican politicians, and the Sessions' led Justice Department. They are in no mood to cooperate with the republicans on anything major.
It is certainly possible that Trump is becoming so radioactive in Washington that his agenda is in serious jeopardy. The Stocks Jocks will need to see that happen before accepting that outcome as a reasonable possibility.
Trump may have only a limited window in time to pass legislation. By this time next year, it may very well be too late. A loss of the Senate or House in the 2018 election would make him a lame duck. At a minimum, he is doing everything possible, other than hanging democrats on the capital steps, to energize the opposition turnout in a mid-term election.
The June 20 special election in the Georgia's 6th congressional district, a reliable GOP district, may provide some indication about the growing dissatisfaction. Tom Price received 61.7% of the vote in the 2016 election, but vacated the seat when he became Trump's Secretary of Health and Human Services. The special election has already become the most expensive in U.S. history. Georgia special election smashes all-time spending record - POLITICO It is possible that the firing of Comey may be just enough to elect the Democrat Jon Ossoff who was doing well in the polls before that event.
+++
One republican congressman from Iowa, the right wing reactionary Rod Blum, pre-screened attendees to make sure that they lived in his district, but that did not keep him away from angry constituents. Iowa congressman walks out of a TV interview and into an angry town hall meeting-The Washington Post Blum receives substantial funding from entities that are domiciled outside of his district. Rep. Rod Blum: Campaign Finance/Money - Top Donors - Representative 2016 | OpenSecrets Those contributors would not be excluded from a meeting.
+++
Kushner Family Stands to Gain From Visa Rules in Trump’s First Major Law
The Trump and Kushner families will certainly be better off by the implementation of Donald's policies. Trump's proposed tax law changes, the Trump-Kushner Tax Relief Act, are designed to substantially lower the Trump/Kushner families tax bill and others similarly situated. The question is whether Trump's middle class supporters will see any meaningful economic benefit. We shall see in the fullness of time.
Yates Fuels Questions About Trump's 18-Day Delay in Firing Flynn-Bloomberg
Muslim ban language wiped from Trump campaign website - CBS News
Here is how the House GOP health care bill would affect employer-based insurance - CBS News
Lie Witness News: Trumpcare Edition-Jimmy Kimmel Live- YouTube
What ever happened to the voter fraud investigation led by the V-P? Trump was going to investigate voter fraud. What happened? - CNN
We are still waiting for Trump to file libel suits against the women who accused him of sexual harassment and battery. Donald Trump Says He Will Sue Sexual Misconduct Accusers | Time.com
Trump: I will sue my accusers after the campaign - YouTube (big time jerk); Donald Trump "HUGE" "YUGE" Compilation - YouTube
Trump Bars U.S. Press, but Not Russia’s, at Meeting With Russian Officials - The New York Times
++++++++++
Warren Buffett:
Buffett recently stated that stocks "stocks are dirt cheap", provided interest rates remain near current levels or increase only modestly over the next ten plus years. Buffett: Bonds ‘Terrible’ In Comparison to Stocks - Barron's; Buffett: Low Rates Make Stocks 'Dirt Cheap'
+++++++++++
1. Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 Sysco 3.3% Senior Unsecured Bond Maturing on 7/15/26:
SYY Sysco Corp Page at Morningstar
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at A3
S & P at BBB+
YTM at Total Cost (98.388) = 3.505%
B. Bought 2 Thermo Fisher Scientific 3% Senior Unsecured Bonds Maturing on 4/15/23:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at Baa2
S & P at BBB
FITCH at BBB Fitch: Thermo Fisher's Acquisition of FEI Company Within Expectations; No Rating Actions
FITCH at BBB Fitch: Thermo Fisher's Acquisition of FEI Company Within Expectations; No Rating Actions
YTM at Total Cost (99.620) = 3.07%
C. Bought 2 Viacom 3.125% Senior Unsecured Bonds Maturing on 6/15/22:
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at Baa3
This is an atypical lowest tier investment grade bond purchase.
YTM at Total Cost (99.794) = 3.168%
D. Sold 100 BSCK at $21.39 (commission free at Schwab):
Quote: Guggenheim BulletShares 2020 Corporate Bond ETF (a term bond fund)
Profit Snapshot: +$24.38:
Sponsor's Webpage: BSCK - Exchange Traded Funds | Guggenheim Investments
I redeployed the proceeds into higher yielding intermediate term bonds. I still own 150 shares of BSCL, a 2021 investment grade term bond fund. The term bond funds are temporary alternatives to cash. The Guggenheim BulletShares are currently commission free ETFs for Schwab customers. I discussed purchasing 50 BSCL shares in an earlier post and in a comment to that post.
Sponsor's Webpage: BSCK - Exchange Traded Funds | Guggenheim Investments
I redeployed the proceeds into higher yielding intermediate term bonds. I still own 150 shares of BSCL, a 2021 investment grade term bond fund. The term bond funds are temporary alternatives to cash. The Guggenheim BulletShares are currently commission free ETFs for Schwab customers. I discussed purchasing 50 BSCL shares in an earlier post and in a comment to that post.
E. Bought 1 Kellogg 3.25% Senior Unsecured Bond Maturing 4/1/26-A Roth IRA Account:
Issuer: Kellogg Co.
K Kellogg Co Page at Morningstar
Finra Page Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Prospectus (sold in February 2016)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at Baa2
Moody's assigns Baa2 rating to Kellogg USD$600 million notes
S & P at BBB
YTM at Total Cost (98.499) = 3.452%
Kellogg's 2017 First Quarter Results K Analyst Estimates
2016 4th Quarter Earnings
Kellogg SEC Filings
Kellogg 2016 Annual Report (debt is discussed starting at page 79)
In November 2016, Kellogg sold $600M in 2.65% senior unsecured notes maturing in 2023. I own two of that issue. Discussed at Item # 1.A.
2. Continued to Pare Stock Allocation:
Issuer: Kellogg Co.
K Kellogg Co Page at Morningstar
Finra Page Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Prospectus (sold in February 2016)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at Baa2
Moody's assigns Baa2 rating to Kellogg USD$600 million notes
S & P at BBB
YTM at Total Cost (98.499) = 3.452%
Kellogg's 2017 First Quarter Results K Analyst Estimates
2016 4th Quarter Earnings
Kellogg SEC Filings
Kellogg 2016 Annual Report (debt is discussed starting at page 79)
In November 2016, Kellogg sold $600M in 2.65% senior unsecured notes maturing in 2023. I own two of that issue. Discussed at Item # 1.A.
2. Continued to Pare Stock Allocation:
A. Sold Three Recently Purchased Australian REITs:
Quotes:
Generation Healthcare REIT (Australia: Sydney)
Stockland REIT (Australia: Sydney)
GPT Group Australia: Sydney)
Profit Snapshots: +A$257.86
I sold GHC too soon: NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT announces unconditional cash offer of A$2.24 per unit(1) for Generation Healthcare I sold at A$2.06.
Closing Price 4/24/17: GHC.AX +A$2.27 +A$0.22 10.73%
B. Sold 50 CYTK at $13.11:
Profit Snapshot: $157.03
Quote: Cytokinetics Inc
Form 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/17
Form 10-K: 2016 Annual Report
I bought this lot last July a $9.81.
The shares popped on 4/18/17 after it was announced that CYTK would be added to the S & P 600 Small Cap Index. Gigamon, CBL & Associates Properties and Cytokinetics Set to Join S&P SmallCap 600
The shares continued to rise after the add date. The company used that price pop to sell 5.26M shares at $14.25. Cytokinetics Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock The underwriters have the option to buy up to 789K shares. The underwriting discount was $.57 per share, bringing CYTK's proceeds to $13.68 before its internal expenses. Prospectus
I previously discussed selling another 50 share lot at $11.46 here, harvesting a $94.99 gain:
TOTAL CYTK = +$252.02
I am left with a 30 share lot bought at $8.78+ in my IB account.
Pipeline - Cytokinetics
Cytokinetics, Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter 2016 Financial Results
Cytokinetics and Royalty Pharma Announce $100 Million Transaction for Omecamtiv Mecarbil
Cytokinetics Announces Start of GALACTIC-HF, a Phase 3 Clinical Trial of Omecamtiv Mecarbil
3. Short Term Bond/CD Basket Ladder Strategy:
A. Bought 2 Bank of China .9% CDs Maturing on 7/27/17:
I had a .55% Bank of China CD mature in mid-April. Hopefully, short term rates will continue to trend up which will improve my interest cash flow numbers as lower yielding short term instruments mature.
This Bank of China CD is part of my 5/1 to 7/31/17 maturity cluster. This purchase brings the principal amount up to $82K in this cluster: See Item # 3.D in Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: 4/11/17 (CYSPRA, NKTR, NLYPRD )
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
