Economy:
The government claimed that retail sales on a seasonally adjusted basis rose 17.7% in May compared to April. However, Y-O-Y sales were down 6.1% compared to May 2019. Retail Sales.pdf
The government claimed that retail sales on a seasonally adjusted basis rose 17.7% in May compared to April. However, Y-O-Y sales were down 6.1% compared to May 2019. Retail Sales.pdf
Dollar crash is almost inevitable, Asia expert Stephen Roach warns I would agree.
U.S. weekly jobless claims total 1.5M, vs 1.3 M estimate (the total number of workers receiving unemployment benefits was 29.1 million as of 5/30/20).
Empire State index shows stable conditions in June after two months of record declines - MarketWatch
Most Americans Say Finances Haven't Improved Under Trump | Bankrate
++++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
Until there is a major stock market decline, I will limit my net dollar stock and stock fund purchases and will continue selling my highest cost lots into rallies and eliminating some positions that have met my objectives.
The net limit for each month, starting in June, will be the total amount of dividends and interest payments received in the prior month. This limit means no invasion of existing cash balances to pay for stocks and stock funds.
I am also adding 1 or 2 shares of one or more double short ETF on rally days as a hedge.
I do not yet see any evidence that the pandemic is under control in the U.S. Several states are seeing spikes in infections and hospitalizations. And, it is not like there is a quarantine wall around cities and states with rapidly increasing infection rates.
Stock-market legend Jeremy Grantham who called 3 financial bubbles says this one is the ‘Real McCoy,’ this is ‘crazy stuff’ - MarketWatch When asked what was the appropriate exposure level to U.S. equities, Grantham replied that a "good number now is zero and less than zero might not be a bad idea if you can stand that".
3M May sales fall 20%, with all business segments seeing declines - MarketWatch
Most Americans Say Finances Haven't Improved Under Trump | Bankrate
++++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
Until there is a major stock market decline, I will limit my net dollar stock and stock fund purchases and will continue selling my highest cost lots into rallies and eliminating some positions that have met my objectives.
The net limit for each month, starting in June, will be the total amount of dividends and interest payments received in the prior month. This limit means no invasion of existing cash balances to pay for stocks and stock funds.
I am also adding 1 or 2 shares of one or more double short ETF on rally days as a hedge.
I do not yet see any evidence that the pandemic is under control in the U.S. Several states are seeing spikes in infections and hospitalizations. And, it is not like there is a quarantine wall around cities and states with rapidly increasing infection rates.
Stock-market legend Jeremy Grantham who called 3 financial bubbles says this one is the ‘Real McCoy,’ this is ‘crazy stuff’ - MarketWatch When asked what was the appropriate exposure level to U.S. equities, Grantham replied that a "good number now is zero and less than zero might not be a bad idea if you can stand that".
3M May sales fall 20%, with all business segments seeing declines - MarketWatch
Donald told his followers to drop Comcast Corp. (CMSCA) as their cable provider:
President Trump's tweet urging followers to drop Comcast is "an abuse of power." - CNN In an earlier campaign rally, the Trumpsters cheered when Donald threatened to destroy Comcast. His beef is that he does not like the news coverage of NBC and MSNBC, both owned by Comcast and wants to use the power of his office to punish the news organizations for their reporting.
Cloud stocks: Charts suggest rally running out of steam
Cloud stocks: Charts suggest rally running out of steam
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Trump:
Martin Gugino: 75-year-old Buffalo protester has a fractured skull and cannot walk Donald claimed he was a member of ANTIFA, without having any evidence, and had faked his fall:
Trumpsters were claiming that the blood running out of Mr. Gugino's ear after his head slammed against the pavement was fake and was hidden in his mask.
++
More Barr/Trump Obstruction of Justice?:
Trump's Justice Department has gone rogue under William Barr.
Last night, Barr attempted to fire Geoffrey Berman, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York who had been appointed to important position by Trump. Berman has refused to step down until his replacement is confirmed by the republican controlled Senate. Barr Abruptly Seeks to Fire U.S. Attorney Who Investigated Trump Associates; Trump says SEC chief Jay Clayton to replace SDNY head Geoffrey Berman
It appears that Berman wanted to do his job and was consequently not being loyal to Donald.
Berman's office reportedly has an ongoing criminal investigation of Trump's attorney Rudy Giuliani. It was the SDNY federal prosecutors who secured the conviction of Michael Cohen. It is also reported that this office is looking into possible crimes relating to whether Deutsche Bank, the only bank willing to loan money to Donald, complied with anti-money laundering and other laws.
The sudden attempt to fire Berman, just five months prior to the election, at least suggests that Barr and Trump may have wanted to smother one or more criminal prosecutions and/or investigations that could damage his reelection.
If Biden wins in November, he will fire whoever is appointed and confirmed to replace Berman. So nothing is gained by Trump and Barr other than to delay possible indictments until after the election.
Trump is of course corrupt; and that is and has been obvious to anyone with functioning brain cells who has not drank the GOP's Kool Aid.
Geoffrey Berman refuses to resign as Manhattan U.S. attorney - The Washington Post
Trump's Assault on Free Speech:
Bolton claims Trump called journalists 'scumbags' who should be 'executed' | TheHill There is no doubt in my mind that Trump would execute journalists that he does not like if he had the power to do so. And, there would be no shortage of Trumpsters willing to carry out that order.
Donald is using the power of the Presidency to inhibit free speech that he does not want people to hear or read.
His threats directed at Comcast, discussed in the prior section, is just one example.
Trump threatened to bring criminal charges against Bolton in the event his book, which Trump wants to suppress, is released. The rogue Attorney General Barr has already indicated his willingness to use or threaten to use the criminal process to suppress Bolton's criticisms. Trump warns Bolton could face criminal charges if his book is released - MarketWatch
I will not be buying the book since I do not want to reward John Bolton Five Takeaways From John Bolton’s Memoir
Trump White House sues to block release of John Bolton book - MarketWatch
Barr's DOJ filed the lawsuit: READ: Trump administration's lawsuit against Bolton over book
The Complaint was signed by Joseph H. Hunt, Assistant Attorney General; Michael Sherwin, Acting United States Attorney; Ethan P. Davis, Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General; David M. Morrell, Deputy Assistant Attorney General; and Alexander K Hass, Director of the Federal Programs Branch.
The DOJ's attempt to suppress free speech may be related in part to Bolton's claim that he told Barr about Trump's malfeasance and Barr of course did nothing. Bolton Says He Warned Barr About Trump's Potential 'Obstruction of Justice'
Bolton: “The pattern looked like obstruction of justice as a way of life.”
I seriously doubt that Bolton has included classified information in the book. The purpose behind the DOJ's lawsuit is simply to suppress speech that Trump does not like.
And if Bolton is lying as claimed by Trump, then incorrect information is a per se non-disclosure of classified information. Trump Excoriates John Bolton Ahead Of Book Release: 'He Is A Liar' Donald and his rogue DOJ can not claim that the information in Bolton's book is false and also claim that the information is true and classified.
When it is published without further revisions, probably on 6/23, then the public can decide for themselves whether Barr's rogue DOJ is protecting national security secrets or has gone so rogue that it uses litigation and threats of criminal prosecution to violate citizens' constitutional rights. I vote for the latter.
Nixon tried to suppress the release of the Pentagon Papers for a similar reasons. Those papers revealed that the Nixon and prior Administrations had repeatedly lied to the American people about the Vietnam War and the authorities did not not want to be embarrassed by documents for that reason. Anyone can read those documents. Pentagon Papers | National Archives I read them when they were first published. There are no national security secrets in them, only embarrassing ones.
In a 6 to 3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled against Nixon's effort to restrain publication. New York Times Co. v. United States, 403 US 713 (Supreme Court 1971):
Trump threatened to sue CNN if it did not withdraw the results of a recent poll showing Biden leading Trump and demanding that CNN apologize for the poll results which Trump called Fake News. Trump campaign demands CNN apologize for poll that shows Biden leading; Trump campaign lawyer Jenna Ellis, CNN's Brian Stelter clash over Trump tweets, CNN poll lawsuit threat
Of course, all of the polls show Biden leading even the one from Fox: Fox News poll: Biden's lead widens to 12 points over Trump | TheHill
Trump has frequently used lawsuits to punish free speech, knowing that the defendants will incur substantial legal fees defending against his frivolous and frequently malevolent claims. Knowing that will happen, people will be cowed to speak and come forward with accurate and damaging information about Donald. Donald J. Trump Is A Libel Bully But Also A Libel Loser; Why Donald Trump Has Never Won a Libel Case | Vanity Fair Filing lawsuits can be an effective means to suppress free speech.
The most serious continuous Trump effort to smother free speech is to cause tens of millions to avoid any contact with responsible news outlets and to acquire information and narratives only from Trump or his approved media personalities at Fox and OAN.
Trump is following the playbook of an authoritarian who wishes to undermine institutions necessary to a properly functioning democracy and is supported in his efforts by the republican party solely for the purpose of acquiring and maintaining political power.
+++
The Memo: Bolton exposé makes Trump figure of mockery | TheHill
CBS reporter asks Trump why he hires people 'that you believe are wackos and liars' amid Bolton book furor | Fox News
Senate GOP defiant over decision to block Bolton from testifying If Bolton had testified at the Senate's impeachment trial, and if Jesus Christ appeared in the Senate Chamber and confirmed the truth of every statement made by Bolton, there would still be only 1 republican senator voting to convict. Bolton's book will not impact Trump's reelection chances.
Prosecutor who withdrew from Roger Stone case to testify about DOJ - POLITICO; Two whistleblowers to testify against Attorney General Barr's 'unprecedented politicization' of Trump's Justice Department | The Independent
Trump incorrectly cites former Philly mayor Frank Rizzo for racist phrase aimed at protesters on Fox News interview
Martin Gugino: 75-year-old Buffalo protester has a fractured skull and cannot walk Donald claimed he was a member of ANTIFA, without having any evidence, and had faked his fall:
Trumpsters were claiming that the blood running out of Mr. Gugino's ear after his head slammed against the pavement was fake and was hidden in his mask.
++
More Barr/Trump Obstruction of Justice?:
Trump's Justice Department has gone rogue under William Barr.
Last night, Barr attempted to fire Geoffrey Berman, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York who had been appointed to important position by Trump. Berman has refused to step down until his replacement is confirmed by the republican controlled Senate. Barr Abruptly Seeks to Fire U.S. Attorney Who Investigated Trump Associates; Trump says SEC chief Jay Clayton to replace SDNY head Geoffrey Berman
It appears that Berman wanted to do his job and was consequently not being loyal to Donald.
Berman's office reportedly has an ongoing criminal investigation of Trump's attorney Rudy Giuliani. It was the SDNY federal prosecutors who secured the conviction of Michael Cohen. It is also reported that this office is looking into possible crimes relating to whether Deutsche Bank, the only bank willing to loan money to Donald, complied with anti-money laundering and other laws.
The sudden attempt to fire Berman, just five months prior to the election, at least suggests that Barr and Trump may have wanted to smother one or more criminal prosecutions and/or investigations that could damage his reelection.
If Biden wins in November, he will fire whoever is appointed and confirmed to replace Berman. So nothing is gained by Trump and Barr other than to delay possible indictments until after the election.
Trump is of course corrupt; and that is and has been obvious to anyone with functioning brain cells who has not drank the GOP's Kool Aid.
Geoffrey Berman refuses to resign as Manhattan U.S. attorney - The Washington Post
Trump's Assault on Free Speech:
Bolton claims Trump called journalists 'scumbags' who should be 'executed' | TheHill There is no doubt in my mind that Trump would execute journalists that he does not like if he had the power to do so. And, there would be no shortage of Trumpsters willing to carry out that order.
Donald is using the power of the Presidency to inhibit free speech that he does not want people to hear or read.
His threats directed at Comcast, discussed in the prior section, is just one example.
Trump threatened to bring criminal charges against Bolton in the event his book, which Trump wants to suppress, is released. The rogue Attorney General Barr has already indicated his willingness to use or threaten to use the criminal process to suppress Bolton's criticisms. Trump warns Bolton could face criminal charges if his book is released - MarketWatch
I will not be buying the book since I do not want to reward John Bolton Five Takeaways From John Bolton’s Memoir
Trump White House sues to block release of John Bolton book - MarketWatch
Barr's DOJ filed the lawsuit: READ: Trump administration's lawsuit against Bolton over book
The Complaint was signed by Joseph H. Hunt, Assistant Attorney General; Michael Sherwin, Acting United States Attorney; Ethan P. Davis, Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General; David M. Morrell, Deputy Assistant Attorney General; and Alexander K Hass, Director of the Federal Programs Branch.
The DOJ's attempt to suppress free speech may be related in part to Bolton's claim that he told Barr about Trump's malfeasance and Barr of course did nothing. Bolton Says He Warned Barr About Trump's Potential 'Obstruction of Justice'
Bolton: “The pattern looked like obstruction of justice as a way of life.”
I seriously doubt that Bolton has included classified information in the book. The purpose behind the DOJ's lawsuit is simply to suppress speech that Trump does not like.
And if Bolton is lying as claimed by Trump, then incorrect information is a per se non-disclosure of classified information. Trump Excoriates John Bolton Ahead Of Book Release: 'He Is A Liar' Donald and his rogue DOJ can not claim that the information in Bolton's book is false and also claim that the information is true and classified.
When it is published without further revisions, probably on 6/23, then the public can decide for themselves whether Barr's rogue DOJ is protecting national security secrets or has gone so rogue that it uses litigation and threats of criminal prosecution to violate citizens' constitutional rights. I vote for the latter.
Nixon tried to suppress the release of the Pentagon Papers for a similar reasons. Those papers revealed that the Nixon and prior Administrations had repeatedly lied to the American people about the Vietnam War and the authorities did not not want to be embarrassed by documents for that reason. Anyone can read those documents. Pentagon Papers | National Archives I read them when they were first published. There are no national security secrets in them, only embarrassing ones.
In a 6 to 3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled against Nixon's effort to restrain publication. New York Times Co. v. United States, 403 US 713 (Supreme Court 1971):
Of course, all of the polls show Biden leading even the one from Fox: Fox News poll: Biden's lead widens to 12 points over Trump | TheHill
Trump has frequently used lawsuits to punish free speech, knowing that the defendants will incur substantial legal fees defending against his frivolous and frequently malevolent claims. Knowing that will happen, people will be cowed to speak and come forward with accurate and damaging information about Donald. Donald J. Trump Is A Libel Bully But Also A Libel Loser; Why Donald Trump Has Never Won a Libel Case | Vanity Fair Filing lawsuits can be an effective means to suppress free speech.
The most serious continuous Trump effort to smother free speech is to cause tens of millions to avoid any contact with responsible news outlets and to acquire information and narratives only from Trump or his approved media personalities at Fox and OAN.
Trump is following the playbook of an authoritarian who wishes to undermine institutions necessary to a properly functioning democracy and is supported in his efforts by the republican party solely for the purpose of acquiring and maintaining political power.
+++
The Memo: Bolton exposé makes Trump figure of mockery | TheHill
CBS reporter asks Trump why he hires people 'that you believe are wackos and liars' amid Bolton book furor | Fox News
Senate GOP defiant over decision to block Bolton from testifying If Bolton had testified at the Senate's impeachment trial, and if Jesus Christ appeared in the Senate Chamber and confirmed the truth of every statement made by Bolton, there would still be only 1 republican senator voting to convict. Bolton's book will not impact Trump's reelection chances.
Prosecutor who withdrew from Roger Stone case to testify about DOJ - POLITICO; Two whistleblowers to testify against Attorney General Barr's 'unprecedented politicization' of Trump's Justice Department | The Independent
Trump incorrectly cites former Philly mayor Frank Rizzo for racist phrase aimed at protesters on Fox News interview
Trump May Compare Himself to Nixon in 1968, but He Really Resembles Wallace - The New York Times Trump does share Nixon's more deplorable qualities but his rhetoric and racism are more in line with George Wallace.
After the Ohio National Guard murdered several protestors at Kent State in 1968, Kent State massacre, there were nationwide protests against the Vietnam War and those murders.
Nixon could not sleep one night after that happened, and asked to be taken to the Lincoln Memorial where protestors were encamped for an extemporaneous talk with them. Nixon reportedly said "I want you to know that I understand just how you feel.”
I read through Donald's tweets everyday, noting a constant stream of flagrantly false narratives being pushed to his followers. He must have nothing but disdain for their intelligence and knowledge.
There are some protestors occupying a few blocks in Seattle. This is how Donald characterizes that protest for his True Believers:
Donald's solution is to send it the U.S. military. Trump Threatens Military Action Over Seattle’s ‘Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone’ | NBC Nightly News - YouTube Donald use of active duty military to disperse the Seattle protest would only inflame the issue and cause the protests to spread nationwide.
Here's what Seattle's Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone looks like; 'Go Back To Your Bunker,' Seattle Mayor Tells Trump In Spat Over Protests
Analysis: Fact checking recent statements from Trump on protests, Seattle, health care – The Denver Post
Trump routinely refers to moderate Democrats as radical leftists. Anyone to the left of Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh are radical leftists in the Alternate Reality of TrumpWorld. That would include True Conservatives and moderates.
Trump’s Tulsa campaign rally sign-up page includes coronavirus liability disclaimer - The Washington Post Masks and social distancing will not be required at Trump campaign rallies. If a few thousand people in attendance become infected, and transmit it to thousands more, that is just a small price to pay in Trumpworld. It is only important for the Duck to receive the adoration of his followers.
Donald continues to claim that there would be very few COVID-19 cases with no testing. It is the testing that causes the hospitalizations and deaths in TrumpWorld:
Trump's False Claim on Tijuana Coronavirus Cases - FactCheck.org
After the Ohio National Guard murdered several protestors at Kent State in 1968, Kent State massacre, there were nationwide protests against the Vietnam War and those murders.
Nixon could not sleep one night after that happened, and asked to be taken to the Lincoln Memorial where protestors were encamped for an extemporaneous talk with them. Nixon reportedly said "I want you to know that I understand just how you feel.”
I read through Donald's tweets everyday, noting a constant stream of flagrantly false narratives being pushed to his followers. He must have nothing but disdain for their intelligence and knowledge.
There are some protestors occupying a few blocks in Seattle. This is how Donald characterizes that protest for his True Believers:
Here's what Seattle's Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone looks like; 'Go Back To Your Bunker,' Seattle Mayor Tells Trump In Spat Over Protests
Analysis: Fact checking recent statements from Trump on protests, Seattle, health care – The Denver Post
Trump routinely refers to moderate Democrats as radical leftists. Anyone to the left of Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh are radical leftists in the Alternate Reality of TrumpWorld. That would include True Conservatives and moderates.
Trump’s Tulsa campaign rally sign-up page includes coronavirus liability disclaimer - The Washington Post Masks and social distancing will not be required at Trump campaign rallies. If a few thousand people in attendance become infected, and transmit it to thousands more, that is just a small price to pay in Trumpworld. It is only important for the Duck to receive the adoration of his followers.
Donald continues to claim that there would be very few COVID-19 cases with no testing. It is the testing that causes the hospitalizations and deaths in TrumpWorld:
Trump’s Actions Rattle the Military World: ‘I Can’t Support the Man’
Secret Service now says it did use pepper spray to clear protesters during the Trump church photo op
Fox "News" manipulated photos in order to make the peaceful protest in Seattle look violent. I would regard this effort as purposely deceitful. Fox News runs digitally altered images in coverage of Seattle’s protests, Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone | The Seattle Times; Fox News publishes digitally altered and misleading images of Seattle demonstrations; Fox News removes manipulated images from coverage of Seattle protests - The Washington Post
Facebook And Twitter Remove 'Racist Baby' Video Posted By President Trump: Live Updates: Protests For Racial Justice-NPR; Parent of the toddler in 'manipulated' Trump video forces Facebook and Twitter to remove it
As Trump casts Biden as ‘sleepy Joe,’ his critics raise questions about his own fitness At the West Point commencement, Donald had to hold a glass of water with two hands to take a sip and his gait coming down a ramp at least suggested developing possible physical and/or mental infirmities, as does his frequently slurred and incoherent speech.
#TrumpIsNotWell-YouTube This is another video released by the Lincoln Project, a group of Never Trump Republicans who have the most effective campaign ads targeting Donald. One of the founders noted that Democrats will bring a soufflé dish to a knife fight. The Lincoln Project is bringing an AK-47.
A tiny Ohio town’s Black Lives Matter event was overrun by armed counterprotesters The Trumpsters came in force, estimated at about 700 people, with many carrying automatic weapons, baseball bats and clubs. The Trumpsters wanted the BLM protestors to know that Ohio was a republican state, unlike Washington state, and peaceful demonstrations that offended the Trumpsters would be met with violence.
Fight grows in Mississippi over state flag's Confederate emblem
Facebook removes Trump ads with symbol once used by Nazis to designate political prisoners
As I mentioned in the last post, Tennessee republicans have refused to remove a statue of Nathan Bedford Forrest prominently featured in the state capital building and are unperturbed by the fact that Forrest was a founder of the KKK and its first Grand Wizard. The statue needs to be pulverized and then buried. Bid to remove Nathan Bedford Forrest statue fails in House; Protesters want Nathan Bedford Forrest bust removed from Tennessee State Capitol | News | wsmv.com
More evidence is emerging that right wing groups were responsible for some of the recent violence. Airman charged with killing federal officer in Oakland tied to right-wing ‘boogaloo’ movement - MarketWatch
Are far-right extremists behind violence at BLM protests? | The Kansas City Star
Republicans have now proven beyond any reasonable doubt that they will nurture, praise, coddle, enable and protect a lying authoritarian demagogue no matter what he does. It is imperative that all non-republicans learn and remember those facts for the remainder of their lives.
++++++++++
Covid-19 Updates:
WHO: COVID-19 pandemic is 'accelerating,' in 'new and dangerous phase' - MarketWatch (6/19/20)
Outside Trump's Tulsa rally site, few face masks and no social distancing The "Chosen One" will protect them from infections. It is God's will.
Trump says some wear coronavirus masks 'to signal disapproval of him'
Trump made this comment last Monday: “If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any.” I have gained a few pounds as of late. My diet program is to quit weighing myself so I will not gain any more pounds.
Donald also claimed last Monday that there was an AIDS vaccine and praised scientists for developing it. There is no AIDS vaccine. Trump praises scientists for developing AIDS vaccine that doesn't exist Donald will frequently preface a demonstrably false statement with "as you know" or "everybody knows".
On 6/17/20, Trump represented that the coronavirus was "dying out". Trump says coronavirus is 'dying out;' Dr. Sanjay Gupta says the virus is not dying - CNN
Major study finds the steroid dexamethasone reduces deaths in patients with severe Covid-19 This drug significantly reduced deaths (35%) for patients on ventilators. So far this study has not been peered reviewed.
Republican congressman Tom Rice reveals he and his family have coronavirus - two weeks after he refused to wear a mask on the House floor Republicans will lead the charge to more U.S. infections and deaths.
Trump Rally In Oklahoma On Saturday: What To Know: NPR; Trump's Rally in Tulsa Could Spread Virus - The New York Times;
Coronavirus recommendations ignored as case numbers rise
Record spike in new coronavirus cases reported in 6 U.S. states as reopening accelerates (6/16/20)
236 new cases popped up in Oregon linked to the Lighthouse United Pentecostal Church whose congregation disobeyed a state order prohibiting large gatherings. Oregon Reports 278 COVID-19 Cases, Another Record, as Outbreak at Pentecostal Church Ravages Union County - Willamette Week
16 Friends Get Coronavirus After Going to Florida Bar | PEOPLE.com (6/16/20)
Arizona tells coronavirus modeling team of state university experts to stop work | Local news | tucson.com If there is no attempt to model the spread, then the virus goes away.
CDC finds majority would not feel safe if U.S. coronavirus rules lifted
CDC may reimplement strict coronavirus rules if cases go up 'dramatically'
Beijing district in 'wartime emergency' after virus cluster at major food market - Reuters (6/12/20)
Tulsa factory closes due to COVID-19 week before Trump rally | Fort Worth Star-Telegram (6/12/20)
Beijing Coronavirus Outbreak Tied to Market Sparks Resurgence Concerns (6/14)
FDA revokes emergency use of hydroxychloroquine
Azar, Trump Mislead on FDA’s Hydroxychloroquine Decision - FactCheck.org
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Warns of Newly Discovered Potential Drug Interaction That May Reduce Effectiveness of a COVID-19 Treatment Authorized for Emergency Use | FDA The FDA warned doctors that the "co-administration of remdesivir and chloroquine phosphate or hydroxychloroquine sulfate is not recommended as it may result in reduced antiviral activity of remdesivir."
Hydroxychloroquine is Doctor Don's miracle cure for Covid-19 and was strongly recommended by the Fox News personalities Laura Ingraham, Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity whose medical expertise and knowledge may collectively equal that of Doctor Don.
++++++++
All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted. The only trades that are not commission free are bond purchases, where I pay a $1 per bond commission, and trades on the Toronto exchange where the commission is C$1 per 100 shares.
1. Small Ball:
1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved;
(5) When a position is eliminated, there is no longer a purchase restriction. However, I am unlikely to start another "small ball buying program" until the shares fall at least 5% below the exit price. My preferred reentry point would be below the lowest price paid in the previous chain.
For some purchases, I scrap (1) above and substitute a purchase restriction that permits purchases when the price lowers my existing cost per share. This looser purchase restriction is based on a judgment call about the risk/reward balance.
The overreaching goal is to reduce risk through a controlled trading strategy that realizes gains particularly through selling the highest cost lots that reduce my average cost per share which increases my dividend yield. When this works, I end up with less at risk money producing income at or near the highest yield.
Risks are controlled by a variety of techniques including the limitations on dollar exposures to each stock and on each purchase. The strategy is primarily one for bear markets that will be characterized by strong cyclical rallies and declines.
The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure. Risk is also controlled through small odd lot trades
1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved;
(5) When a position is eliminated, there is no longer a purchase restriction. However, I am unlikely to start another "small ball buying program" until the shares fall at least 5% below the exit price. My preferred reentry point would be below the lowest price paid in the previous chain.
For some purchases, I scrap (1) above and substitute a purchase restriction that permits purchases when the price lowers my existing cost per share. This looser purchase restriction is based on a judgment call about the risk/reward balance.
The overreaching goal is to reduce risk through a controlled trading strategy that realizes gains particularly through selling the highest cost lots that reduce my average cost per share which increases my dividend yield. When this works, I end up with less at risk money producing income at or near the highest yield.
Risks are controlled by a variety of techniques including the limitations on dollar exposures to each stock and on each purchase. The strategy is primarily one for bear markets that will be characterized by strong cyclical rallies and declines.
The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure. Risk is also controlled through small odd lot trades
A. Restarted HRZN-Bought 10 at $9.29:
Quote: Horizon Technology Finance Corp. (HRZN)-A BDC
Closing Price 6/19: HRZN +$11.63 +$0.07 +0.61%
Management: External
HRZN SEC Filings
Website: Horizon Technology Finance
2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 26 and ends at page 58)
Last Elimination: Item # 1.B. Sold 30 HRZN at $11.8 (11/18/18 Post)
Dividends: Monthly at $.1 per share
Closing Price 6/19: HRZN +$11.63 +$0.07 +0.61%
Management: External
HRZN SEC Filings
Website: Horizon Technology Finance
2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 26 and ends at page 58)
Last Elimination: Item # 1.B. Sold 30 HRZN at $11.8 (11/18/18 Post)
Dividends: Monthly at $.1 per share
Dividend History
Last Ex Dividend: 6/17/20
Next Ex Dividend: 7/16/20
Dividend Announcement -SEC Filed News Release
Dividend Yield at $9.29 = 12.92%
Net Asset Value Per Share History: A Major Negative
03/31/20: $11.48
12/31/19: $11.83
12/31/18: $11.64
12/31/17: $11.72
12/31/16: $12.09
12/31/15: $13.85
12/31/14: $14.36 10-K at page 54
12/31/13: $14.14
12/31/12: $15.15
12/31/11: $17.01
October 2010: IPO at $16, net of $14.88 to HRZN after underwriting discount: Prospectus
When characterizing this history as a major negative, I am taking into consideration that the decline in net asset value per share has occurred during an economic expansion and a bull market in stocks until February 2020.
5 Year Historical:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"As of March 31, 2020, the Company’s debt portfolio consisted of 36 secured loans with an aggregate fair value of $307.6 million. In addition, the Company’s total warrant, equity and other investments in 71 portfolio companies had an aggregate fair value of $10.0 million, and the Company’s 50% equity interest in its joint venture had a fair value of $16.9 million as of March 31, 2020.
Net asset value of $193.5 million, or $11.48 per share, as of March 31, 2020
Undistributed spillover income of $0.38 per share as of March 31, 2020
Annualized portfolio yield on debt investments of 13.2% for the quarter"
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/20 (investments and brief summary of terms listed starting at page 7)
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain.
Exchange Traded Bond: I also bought 10 shares of this BDC's exchange traded senior bond, which I discuss in Item # 4.A. below.
Last Ex Dividend: 6/17/20
Next Ex Dividend: 7/16/20
Dividend Announcement -SEC Filed News Release
Dividend Yield at $9.29 = 12.92%
Net Asset Value Per Share History: A Major Negative
03/31/20: $11.48
12/31/19: $11.83
12/31/18: $11.64
12/31/17: $11.72
12/31/16: $12.09
12/31/15: $13.85
12/31/14: $14.36 10-K at page 54
12/31/13: $14.14
12/31/12: $15.15
12/31/11: $17.01
October 2010: IPO at $16, net of $14.88 to HRZN after underwriting discount: Prospectus
When characterizing this history as a major negative, I am taking into consideration that the decline in net asset value per share has occurred during an economic expansion and a bull market in stocks until February 2020.
5 Year Historical:
"As of March 31, 2020, the Company’s debt portfolio consisted of 36 secured loans with an aggregate fair value of $307.6 million. In addition, the Company’s total warrant, equity and other investments in 71 portfolio companies had an aggregate fair value of $10.0 million, and the Company’s 50% equity interest in its joint venture had a fair value of $16.9 million as of March 31, 2020.
Net investment income of $4.3 million, or $0.26 per share, compared to $3.2 million, or $0.28 per share for the prior-year period Annualized portfolio yield on debt investments of 13.2% for the quarter
For the quarter ended March 31, 2020, net realized gain on investments was $3.5 million, or $0.21 per share, compared to a net realized gain on investments of $1.2 million, or $0.10 per share, for the quarter ended March 31, 2019.
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Undistributed spillover income of $0.38 per share as of March 31, 2020
Annualized portfolio yield on debt investments of 13.2% for the quarter"
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain.
Exchange Traded Bond: I also bought 10 shares of this BDC's exchange traded senior bond, which I discuss in Item # 4.A. below.
B. Added 3 IRM at $22.99; 2 at $22.31:
Quote: Iron Mountain Inc (IRM)
Closing Price 6/19: IRM $26.34 -$0.64 -2.37%
Closing Price 6/19: IRM $26.34 -$0.64 -2.37%
Website: Data & Records Management | Shredding | Iron Mountain
SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 8)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.A. Added 1 IRM at $26.46; 1 at $26.07; 1 at $25; 2 at $23.95; 1 at $23.3; 1 at $23.76; 1 at $24.33; 1 at $22.61; 1 at $24.33; 1 at $22.6 and 1 at $21.79(5/2/20 Post)
Current Position: 32+ shares
I am not a fan.
Average Cost Per Share: $26.47
Dividend: Quarterly at $.6185 per share ($2.474 annually)
Iron Mountain - Stock - Dividend History and Tax Treatment
I view a dividend cut as a possibility.
Part of the problem is that the company is already over leveraged in my opinion and becoming more so as it moves into data centers.
Another issue is that revenues and cash flow have been and will continue to be adversely impacted by COVID-19 related shutdowns and slowdowns.
IRM's senior unsecured debt is currently rated in junk territory.
Last May, S & P affirmed its BB- rating but change the outlook to negative. The widespread worldwide shutdowns will result in significantly lower revenue, with S & P estimating a 15% to 20% revenue decline in the second quarter.
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 9.35%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/12/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
Overall Impression: Negative with major declines in second quarter revenues anticipated
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Pared IRM-Sold 15 at $33.04 (2/22/20 Post); Item # 1.F. Sold 10 IRM at $32.1 (2/12/20 Post); Item # 1.C. Sold 10 IRM at $33.91-Used Commission Free Trade (12/26/18 Post); Item # 3 Sold 50 IRM at $33.82 Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers):
I have access to two brokerage reports. Both are negative. The Credit Suisse analyst has been super negative.
Credit Suisse (5/7/20): Underperform with a PT of $17, reduced from $18. CS has been negative for as long as I have had access to their reports.
S & P (5/29/20): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $27. The S & P analyst slashed the PT by $8 on 5/7/20, noting the strong headwinds related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce my average cost per share. My highest cost lot (5 shares) was bought at $30.65 (10/26/18). The tax cost basis is lower given ROC adjustments to the original cost number. I will sell that lot when and if the price exceeds $30.65.
Other Recent News: Iron Mountain Incorporated Announces Debt Offering (6/17/20)(IRM announced that it has priced an upsized offering by way of a private placement of a total of $500 million aggregate principal amount of its 5.000% Senior Notes due 2028 (the "2028 Notes"), $1,300 million aggregate principal amount of its 5.250% Senior Notes due 2030 (the "2030 Notes") and $600 million aggregate principal amount of its 5.625% Senior Notes due 2032") The proceeds from the notes will be used "to repay a portion of the outstanding borrowings under the Company's revolving credit facility and to redeem all $500 million of its 4⅜% Senior Notes due 2021, all $600 million of its 6% Senior Notes due 2023 and all $1 billion of its 5¾% Senior Subordinated Notes due 2024."
C. Added to FNB-Bought 3 at $7; 5 at $6.47; 10 at $6.81:
Closing Price Last Friday: FNB $7.62 -$0.10 -1.30%
Last Discussed: Item # 4.B. Added 5 FNB at 8.8; 5 at $8.43; 5 at $7.62; 5 at $6.6 (4/30/20 Post)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
FNB | F.N.B. Corp. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filings
Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share
Last Ex-Dividend: 5/29/20 (all shares owned as of)
Dividend History: Highly unfavorable. FNB cut its quarterly dividend by 50% in 2009 and has not raised it since that slash.
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, shares viewed as undervalued long term, but short term headwinds for regional banks are a major negative for accumulation now IMO.
Average Cost Per Share this Account: $10.66
Current Position This Account: 193+ shares
Dividend Yield at $10.66: 4.5%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20):
"F.N.B. Corporation (NYSE: FNB) reported earnings for the first quarter of 2020 with net income available to common stockholders of $45.4 million, or $0.14 per diluted common share. Comparatively, first quarter of 2019 net income available to common stockholders totaled $92.1 million, or $0.28 per diluted common share, and fourth quarter of 2019 net income available to common stockholders totaled $93.2 million, or $0.29 per diluted common share. The results for the first quarter of 2020 reflect a provision for credit losses of $37.9 million, or $0.09 per share, related to the COVID-19 macroeconomic impacts under the newly adopted Current Expected Credit Losses Standard (CECL), branch consolidation costs of $8.3 million, $0.02 per share, mortgage servicing rights impairment of $7.7 million, or $0.02 per share, accelerated vesting of certain 2020 stock grants of $5.6 million, or $0.01 per share, and COVID-19 related expenses of $2.0 million. These significant, unusual, or outsized items totaled $61 million, negatively impacting earnings by $0.15 per share."
"The net interest margin (FTE) (non-GAAP) expanded 7 basis points to 3.14%, driven by stable average loan yields, higher discount accretion on acquired loans in a post-CECL environment, and a 10 basis point improvement in the cost of average deposits.'
"The loan to deposit ratio was 96.5% at March 31, 2020"
"The efficiency ratio (non-GAAP) was 59.0%, compared to 53.4%, reflecting the impact of significant, unusual, and outsized items during the first quarter of 2020"
"The annualized net charge-offs to total average loans ratio improved 4 basis points to 0.10% from 0.14%."
"The ratio of non-performing loans and OREO to total loans and OREO increased 9 basis points to 0.64%. Prior to the adoption of CECL, acquired PCD loans were excluded from our nonperforming disclosures. PCD loans that meet the definition of non-accrual are now included in the disclosures and resulted in $54 million increase in the non-accrual loans in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the prior quarter."
Other Small Ball: I have also started small ball purchase programs in two other taxable accounts, where I will buy only when the price lowers my average cost per share.
Vanguard Account: shares with an average cost per share of .
Fidelity Account: 15 shares with an average cost per share of $6.71.
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.C Sold 31 FNB at $12.17 and Item # 2.D Sold 100 FNB at $12.17 (11/2/19 Post); Item # 5.A Sold 20 FNB at $11.42 (9/28/19 Post); Item # 3.A. Sold 30 FNB at $11.95-Used Fidelity Commission Free Trade (5/18/19 Post); Item # 1.A. Sold 50 FNB at $13.65-Used Commission Free Trade (9/5/18 Post); Item # 1.D. Sold 50 FNB at $13.9-Used Commission Free Trade (6/18/18 Post); Item 2.A. Sold 60 FNB at $14.59 (3/5/2018);Item # 4.A. Sold 100 FNB at $13.94-Satellite Taxable Account (10/23/17 Post)
FNB Realized Gains to Date: $1,354.65
Comparative Data Charts at St. Louis Federal Reserve:
Net Interest Margin for all U.S. Banks (abbreviated to "NIM")
Return on Average Equity for all U.S. Banks (abbreviated to "ROE")
Return on Average Assets for all U.S. Banks (abbreviated to "ROA")
Nonperforming Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans for all U.S. Banks (abbreviated to "NPL Ratio")
D. Pared D-Sold 13 at $78.17 (highest cost lots):
Quote: Dominion Energy Inc. (D)
Closing Price 6/19: D $81.72 -$2.81 -3.32%
Website: Dominion Energy
Investor Relations | Dominion Energy
Profit Snapshot: +$51.81
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Added 1 D at $73.8, 1 at $71.96; 1 at $71; 1 at $68.53; 1 at $68 and 1 at $60.6 (4/18/20 Post)
Average Cost Remaining Shares = $65.71
Closing Price 6/19: D $81.72 -$2.81 -3.32%
Website: Dominion Energy
Investor Relations | Dominion Energy
Profit Snapshot: +$51.81
Average Cost Remaining Shares = $65.71
Dividend: Quarterly at $.94 per share ($3.76 annually)
Dominion Energy Declares Quarterly Dividend of 94 Cents
Dividends & Splits | Dominion Energy
The penny rate was raised to $.94 from $.9175 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment.
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 5.72%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/4/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): Dominion Energy Announces First-Quarter Earnings
"Company affirms full-year 2020 operating earnings guidance of $4.25 to $4.60 per share"
My largest position is in senior unsecured notes issued by Dominion's subsidiary Virginia Electric Power, the largest electric utility operating in Virginia. I currently own 12 bonds that mature in 2022. I also have exposure to Dominion Energy debt but most of those bonds will mature on 7/1/20 (7 $1K par value 2.579% junior bonds) The remaining Dominion Energy bonds are senior unsecured.
Recent News: Dominion seeks more time to build Atlantic Coast Pipeline (NYSE:D) | Seeking Alpha; Supreme Court clears key obstacle for Atlantic Coast Pipeline (NYSE:D) | Seeking Alpha
E. Restarted CCNE-Bought 5 at $15.25; 5 at $14.95; 5 at $13.75:
 |
| As of Close 6/19/20 |
Closing Price 6/19: CCNE $17.41 -$0.04 -0.23%
"CNB Financial Corporation is a financial holding company with consolidated assets of approximately $4.0 billion that conducts business primarily through CNB Bank, CNB Financial Corporation’s principal subsidiary. CNB Bank is a full-service bank engaging in a full range of banking activities and services, including trust and wealth management services, for individual, business, governmental, and institutional customers. CNB Bank operations include a private banking division, one loan production office and 42 full-service offices in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New York. CNB Bank’s divisions include ERIEBANK, based in Erie, Pennsylvania with offices in northwest Pennsylvania and northeast Ohio; FCBank, based in Worthington, Ohio with offices in central Ohio; and BankOnBuffalo, based in Buffalo, New York with offices in northwest New York. CNB Bank is headquartered in Clearfield, Pennsylvania with offices in central and north central Pennsylvania."
CCNE SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report
CCNE Analyst Estimates
SEC Filed Investor Presentation June 2020
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Average Cost Per Share: $14.65
Last Eliminated: Item # 3.A. Eliminated Remaining CCNE-Sold 50 at $23.76 (2/17/2017 Post)(profit snapshot $618.1)-Item # 2 Bought 50 CCNE at $11.06 (6/30/2010 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.17 per share ($.68 annually)
CNB Financial Announces Second Quarter Dividend
Dividend Yield at $14.65 = 4.64%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 5/29/20 (all shares owned as of)
5 Year Historical:
NIM: 3.49%
ROA: .95%
ROE: 11.32%
NPA Ratio: 1.18%
NPL Ratio: .89%
Total Risked Based Capital Ratio: 12.66%
Tangible Common Equity to Tangible Assets: 7.65%
Efficiency Ratio: 60.34%
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $18.58
As of 3/31/20, loans to hotels were 6.3% of the total.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain. This is the most restrictive version and is being used for this mini cap bank due to hotel loan exposure.
Maximum Position: 50 Shares
CCNE Trading Profits To Date: $1,025.7
F. Eliminated NBB-Sold 35 at $20.17:
Quote Nuveen Taxable Municipal Income Fund Overview- A Leveraged CEF
Profit Snapshot: $53.53
Item # 2.B. Restarted NBB-Bought 20 at $19.4, 5 at $18.5; 5 at $17.74 5 at $16.67 (4/11/20 Post)
Data Date of Trade (5/6/20):
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share = $19.92
Closing Market Price: $20.29
Premium: +1.86%
Sourced: Nuveen Taxable Municipal Income - CEF Connect
Quote: NBB - Nuveen Build America Bond Fund
I will trade Build America Bond CEFs.
Some Prior NBB Trades:
Item # 3 Sold 50 NBB in Roth IRA: Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 2/26/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $62.98)-Item # 1 Bought 50 NBB at $19.51 in a Roth IRA: Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 10/21/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Item # 2 Sold 100 NBB at $21.25 (Roth IRA)(2/27/15 Post)(profit snapshot $101.7)-Item # 1 Roth IRA: Added 100 NBB at $20.1 (6/14/14 Post); Item # 2 Added 50 NBB at $18.55 (6/29/13 Post); Item # 1 Bought 50 NBB at $20.73-ROTH IRA (6/8/12 Post); Item # 1 Sold 100 NBB at $20.13-ROTH IRA (11/22/2011 Post); Item # 3 Sold 100 NBB at $20.07 (11/4/11 Post); Item # 1 Sold 50 NBB at $19.24 in the Regular IRA (12/3/2010 Post)- Item # 5 Bought: 50 NBB at $18.4 (11/18/2010 Post)
G. Started CNA-Bought 10 at $28.15; 10 at $27, 5 at $26 and Sold 10 at $29.44:
Quote: CNA Financial Corp. (CNA)
Closing Price 6/19: CNA $32.55 -$0.29 -0.88%
CNA | CNA Financial Corp. Analyst Estimates
As of 6/15/20:
2020 $2.81
2021 $3.84
CNA is an insurance holding company whose products primarily include property and casualty coverages including surety.
CNA SEC Filings
2019 Annual Report
Buys:
Sold Highest Cost Lot:
Profit Snapshot-10 Shares: +$12.29
Dividend: Quarterly at $.37 per share ($1.48 annually)
Dividend Yield at $26.67 = 5.55% (regular dividend only)
Last Ex Dividend: 5/14/20 (owned all shares as of)
5 Year Historical:
Ex-Items, CNA reported a $.4 E.P.S. vs. the consensus estimate of $.56. CNA Financial (CNA) Lags Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - May 4, 2020 - Zacks.com
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Loews Corporation (L) owns 89.1% of CNA's stock. CNA Financial Corporation (CNA) Stock Major Holders - Yahoo Finance
H. Added to SLG-Bought 2 at $45.59; 1 at $44.23, 1 at $43; 1 at $42.5; 1 at $40; 1 at $38; 1 at $35.5 and Sold 5 at $50; 2 at $52.19: 1 at $61.54:
Closing Price 6/19: SLG $51.87 -$1.66 -3.10%
Purchases:
Sold 5 at $50; 2 at $52.19; 1 at $61.54:
I mentioned paring this position in a 6/4/20 comment. Quote: SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG)
Website: SL Green Realty- NYC’s Largest Commercial Landlord
SL Green | Properties
Profit Snapshot: +$38.48 (8 shares)
Average Cost Per Share After Pare: $40.45
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| Snapshot Intraday on 6/8/20 |
Yield at $40.45 TC = 8.75%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/28/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes.
Current Position: 6 shares
Last Discussed: Item # 2.F. Bought 5 SLG at $48.51 (5/9/20 Post) This lot has been sold. I discussed the last earnings report in that post.
With New York City offices still closed, companies consider downsizing-or heading for the suburbs-MarketWatch I discussed this concern in a 5/13/20 comment.
Maximum Position: 50 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain.
I also own 20 SLGPRI shares Item 4.A. Bought 10 SLGPRI at $20.75; 10 at $19 (5/9/20 Post); SL Green Realty Corp. 6.5% Preferred Series I Overview
I discuss the purchase of a SLG SU bond in Item #3.C. below.
I. Eliminated VTR Position (Fidelity Account)-Sold 57+ at $43.42 :
Closing Price 6/19: VTR $35.80 -$3.55 -9.02% (slashed dividend)
Investment category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: Net of $81.91 (excludes 2/20 and 2/21 sells)
Subsequent to eliminating my VTR positions, the company slashed its quarterly dividend by 43.5%. Ventas Declares Second Quarter 2020 Dividend
The new quarterly penny rate is $.45 per share, down from the prior penny rate of $.7925. A dividend cut was expected due to the problems in VTR's senior housing segment, but I was surprised by the magnitude.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Added 5 VTR at $46; 5 at $41.7; 5 at $38; 2 at $31.96; 3 at $29; 2 at $26.87; 2 at $26; 2 at $22.48; 1 at $21; 1 at $19.2; 1 at $18; 1 at $16 and 1 at $14.28 (3/21/20 Post) I did not care for how many times that I had to average down.
Company Website: Ventas
VTR SEC Filings
VTR 5 Year Chart- Yahoo Finance
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.B.Sold 5 at $62.7 and 5 at $63.19 (3/7/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
J. Eliminated VTR (Vanguard Account):
Profit Snapshot: +$54.53
K. Bought 100 PGX at $13.9 (Fidelity Account) and Eliminated Position in Vanguard Account-Sold 15 shares:
Quote: Invesco Preferred ETF Overview
Closing Price 6/19: PGX $14.38 +$0.07 +0.49%
Sponsor's Website: Invesco
Expense Ratio: .52%
Holdings | Invesco Preferred ETF
Some Holdings:
Profit Snapshot 15 Shares = $20.36
Last Elimination: Item # 1.A Sold 50 PGX at $14.35 (3/3/19 Post)(profit snapshot= $45.46).
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 2 Sold 100 PGX at $13.65 (9/14/13 Post); Item # 5 Sold: 200 PGX at $14.38 (11/12/2010)
Dividends: Monthly
Using the word "preferred" to describe the holdings is in part a misnomer. This fund does own equity preferred stocks that pay either qualified or non-qualified dividends. The fund also owns exchange traded bonds that pay interest. Those ETBs include first mortgage, senior unsecured and junior subordinated bonds.
1 Year PGX Chart:
L. Started BPYUP-Bought 10 at $14.37:
Quote: Brookfield Property REIT Inc. 6.375% Pfd. Series A Overview
1 Year Chart:
Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks, a subcategory of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
I view this one as a risky REIT equity preferred stock which explains the 10 share purchase. I am not likely to buy more than 10 more shares.
It was originally issued by General Growth Properties (a Mall REIT) which is now Brookfield Property REIT Inc (BPYU), see page F-53 BPYU 10-K
BPYU is a U.S REIT and a subsidiary of Brookfield Property Partners.
Quote for Brookfield Property Partners L.P. (BPY)
BPY also owns office properties and has what it calls a LP investment portfolio. The "LP Investments portfolio includes our equity invested in Brookfield-sponsored real estate opportunity funds, which target high-quality assets with operational upside across various real estate sectors, including office, retail, multifamily, logistics, hospitality, self-storage, triple net lease, manufactured housing and student housing".
BPY has issued a preferred stock with a 6.5% coupon that trades at a much higher price and substantially lower yield than BPYUP issued by its subsidiary Brookfield Property REIT. BPYPP | Brookfield Property Partners L.P. 6.5% Cumulative PreferredUnits I did not research why there is a yield difference. My guess without looking is that BPY could allow BPYU to bankrupt (or cease paying dividends) while that is not an option for BPY L.P. or at least less likely due to the office properties compared to BPYU's malls.
As I recall the General Growth Property malls were classified mostly as "A" class, and many are in major population centers.
The relationship between BPYU and BPY is complicated and beyond the scope of this post. The "BPYU shares are exchangeable on a 1:1 basis for BPY units or their cash equivalence." Brookfield Property REIT That is apparently not the case for the preferred stocks.
BPYU SEC Filings
BPYU 2019 Annual Report (list of retail properties starts at page 15)
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/20
Preferred Stock - Brookfield Property Partners
Security: Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 6.375%
Dividend: Cumulative and Paid Quarterly
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/12/20
Brookfield Property REIT Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividends
It is a definite possibility that the common share dividend will be cut before year end.
Issuer Optional Call: on or after 2/13/18 at par plus accrued and unpaid dividends.
Stopper Clause: Yes at pages S-32;
M. Pared GOOD-Sold 12 Shares at $18.72 and 10 at $19.76:
I sold my highest cost lots.
Closing Price 6/19: GOOD $18.56 -$0.44 -2.34%
Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD)- An Equity REIT
SEC Filings
Last Discussed: Item # 2.J. Added 2 GOOD at $13,35 (5/30/20 Post)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
The 12 shares included 10 shares bought in the open market and the highest cost shares purchased with dividends.
Management: External
Profit Snapshot: $48.17 (excludes 4/29 sell)
This pare resulted in selling all of my shares owned for more than 1 year. The remaining shares were purchased this year, starting on 3/10/20.
Average Cost Per Share Before Pares = $14.81
Average Cost After Pare = $14
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 6/5/20 |
Dividend: Monthly at $.12515 ($1.5 annually rounded)
Distribution History | Gladstone Commercial Corporation
Dividend Yield at $14 total cost = 10.71%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/18/20
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.C. Eliminated GOOD in Schwab Account-Sold 50+ at $20.88 and Item # 1.D. Sold Highest Cost GOOD Share in Fidelity Account at $21.36 (3/3/19 Post)
N. Started SKYY-Bought 1 at $71.88; 1 at $71.31; 1 at $70.83 and 1 at $68:
Quote: SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF Overview
I also bought 1 or 2 shares in three other accounts as placeholders.
Sponsor's Website: First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY)
1 Year Chart:
 |
| Bungee Jumper |
Holdings: 64
Holdings Weighted at 1%+:
Maximum Position: 100 shares all accounts
2. Short Term Bond Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 Office Properties 4% SU Maturing on 7/15/22:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
2019 Annual Report (debt listed at page F-27; the 4% SU maturing in 2022 is the next SU maturity)
Credit Ratings:
Total Cost = 98.609 (with $2 commission)
YTM at TC = 4.679%
Current Yield at TC = 4.0564%
B. Sold 2 out of 12 American Electric Power 2.95% SU Maturing on 12/15/22:
Profit Snapshot: +$104.29
Item # 3.B Bought 1 American Electric Power 2.95% SU Bonds Maturing on 12/15/22 at a TC of 98.716 (1/30/19 Post); Item # 4.A. Bought 1 at a TC of 98.613 (4/9/18 Post)
I mentioned this sell in a 5/14/20 comment.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Sold at 103.979
YTM at 103.979 = 1.209%
I still own the 10 bonds bought at a total cost of 96.828. Item #5.A. (4/18/20 Post)
C. Bought 2 S.L.Green Operating L.P. 3.25% SU Bonds Maturing on 10/15/22:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Operating Entity for SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG) who guarantees the notes
Total Cost with $2 Commission: 99.579
YTM at Total Cost: 3.437%
Current Yield at Total Cost: 3.2637%
Optional Redemption: At par value within 1 month prior to maturity, otherwise subject to make whole.
4. Exchange Traded Bonds:
The two BDC baby bonds discussed below are lightly traded, usually with significant bid-ask spreads, and can be moved significantly up and down in price with negligible volume.
The two BDC baby bonds discussed below are lightly traded, usually with significant bid-ask spreads, and can be moved significantly up and down in price with negligible volume.
Quote: HTFA | Horizon Technology Finance Corp. 6.25% Notes due 09/15/22 Overview
Closing Price 6/19: HTFA $24.50 -$0.10 -0.41%
Closing Price 6/19: HTFA $24.50 -$0.10 -0.41%
Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds, a subcategory of Exchange Traded Bonds
Issuer: HRZN | Horizon Technology Finance Corp. Overview-A BDC
The confirmation incorrectly describes this security as a "preferred".
It is a senior unsecured baby bond.
Prospectus: "The Notes will be our direct unsecured obligations and rank pari passu with all outstanding and future unsecured unsubordinated indebtedness" This is how senior unsecured debt is described.
Par Value: $25
Issuer Optional Redemption: At par value on or after 9/15/19
Maturity: Unless redeemed early at the issuer's option, the bond matures on 9/15/22
The issuer discussed this bond in its most recent 10-Q filing:
 |
| Page 58 |
"The Notes are expected to trade “flat,” which means that purchasers will not pay, and sellers will not receive, any accrued and unpaid interest on the Notes that is not reflected in the trading price".
Last Ex Interest Date: 5/29/20 (owned as of)
B. Added 10 TPVY at $24.62 and 10 at $24:
Average Cost Per Share: $24.31
Last Discussion: Item # 4.C. Bought 5 TPVY at $21.95 (4/11/20 Post)
Interest: Quarterly / trades flat
Capital Structure: Senior Unsecured debt
Par Value: $25
Maturity Date: 7/15/22
Callable at Par Value at issuer's option now
Payment Dates: January 15, April 15, July 15 and October 15
Next Ex Interest Date: 6/30/20
Trades Flat
The yield-to-maturity with a $24.31 cost basis is about 7.25%. Bond Yield Calculator
The YTM number assumes that all interest payments will be made and the issuer will pay the principal amount on the maturity date.
The difference in the 5.91% current yield and the % YTM is the profit on the bond, which is part of the YTM calculation.
Quote: Dillard's Capital Trust I 7.5%
Closing Price 6/19: DDT $21.73 -$0.12 -0.54%
Closing Price 6/19: DDT $21.73 -$0.12 -0.54%
Category: Trust Preferred Securities, a subcategory of Exchange Traded Bond
Regular Preferred and Trust Preferred (1/1/2019)
Regular Preferred and Trust Preferred (1/1/2019)
Profit Snapshot: +$7.79
This was my highest cost lot.
Average Cost After Pare: $16.1
Yield at $16.1 = 11.65%
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 7.5%
Maturity: 8/1/2038
Trades Flat: Whoever owns the bond on the ex interest date receives the interest payment
Last Ex Interest: 4/15/20 (all shares owned as of)
Next Ex Interest Date: 7/16/20
Next Ex Interest Date: 7/16/20
Last Discussed: Item #3.B. (5/16/20 Post)
DDT Trading Profits to Date +$233.92 (prior snapshots included in Item #4.D. below)
While Trust Preferred securities are "baby bonds", as are Trust Certificates, I do not include trading snapshots in my Exchange Traded Baby Bonds post.
The owners of a Trust Preferred and Trust Certificate do not directly own the bond.
Instead those securities represent an undivided beneficial in a bond owned by a trust. I consequently create separate classifications for those bonds since they do not involve direct ownership.
I include round trip trading profits in Trust Certificates in this post.
Both Trust Certificates and Trust Preferred securities are on the way out as income investments due to redemptions and a lack of new supply.
I could not find a post that includes my Trust Preferred trading profits, so here is what I could find that falls into that category. Almost all of these securities have been called by the issuer:
SIVBO: +$1,354.47
JWF: +$880.1
ABWPRA: +$311.15
ZBPRB: +$208.02
REPRB: $232.65
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
ZBPRB: +$208.02
REPRB: $232.65
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
