Saturday, December 28, 2019

FENY, HTA, IGR, K, TEF

Economy


Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey | Mortgage Bankers Association  

Freddie Mac Mortgage Market Survey Archive (30 year FRM at 3.74% +7 points for the week ending 12/26/19, down from 4.55% +5 points for the week ending 12/27/2018) Mortgage rates are still abnormally low. Headwinds for new home purchases are primarily the rise in home prices and the limitation on deductibility of state income and property taxes to $10K.


Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (declined to -5% from -1%)




New Home Sales.pdf

++++++



As stock indexes hit record heights, Guggenheim’s Minerd says we’re near a ‘Minsky moment’ and ‘silly season in risk assets’ - MarketWatch The rally does have IMO the feel of a developing Minsky Moment, a topic discussed by me in prior posts. The last Minsky Moment was in 2008. The Minsky Moment | The New Yorker (published 1/27/2008); Minsky Moment Defined'

Minsky Moment' Hangs Over World Swimming in Debt: QuickTake Q&A - Bloomberg


If the U.S. government quit spending $1 trillion per year in borrowed money, GDP growth would quickly turn negative. 


Federal government deficit spending was at 4.6% of U.S. GDP in the 2019 F/Y, up from 3.8% in F/Y 2018. Federal Budget Deficit Swelled to Nearly $1 Trillion in 2019 - The New York Times


The question is how much longer will the U.S. be able to sustain budget deficits anywhere near current and projected levels. 


For now, the debt bombs are out-of-sight and out-of-mind as they have been several times within the past 15 years. Ignoring the problem as it grows parabolically will not prevent another explosion. 


The primary drivers for a long term secular stock bull market are still in place. Those include currently low interest rates and inflation and, more importantly, a consensus long term forecast that they will remain low for decades. 


The persistence of abnormally low interest rates for extended period has created and will continue to create major problems that grow in severity as the time period extends forward: 


(1) money is borrowed and spent unwisely (broadly defined); 


(2) pension plans will eventually be unable to meet their commitments, a problem that will be aggravated during a long term bear market for stocks and other risk asset classes; 


(3) banks will reduce credit availability even more when net interest margins are obliterated quickly by rising loan defaults; 


(4) risk assets are driven up in price which is increasing the risks of a major financial crisis when stock prices collapse again (two such collapses in the past 2 decades-over 11+ years since the last one);   


(5) massive capital misallocations have accelerated with investments in non-productive assets and uses (related to (1) above); and 


(6) households who rely on risk free savings continue to earn returns lower than the inflation rate before taxes. 


My Vix Asset Allocation Model is still flashing green.  


Traditional valuation measures are at worrisome levels. 


Shiller PE Ratio Chart


Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator - dshort - Advisor Perspectives

Trailing 12 Month GAAP P/E for SPX: 25.23 as of 12/20/19 and 25.53 as of 12/27/19 WSJ Index P/Es 

The 12 month trailing P/Es, based on GAAP accounting, were 27.55 for the Nasdaq 100 and 37.98 for the Russell 2000 as of 12/27/19.

+++++++

Trump

Donald's job approval rating moved up to 45% in the latest Gallup monthly poll. I have started to prepare myself mentally for Donald's reelection, viewing it as advisable to prepare myself gradually for over 64+ million Americans voting for this crazy, authoritarian, totally untrustworthy, lying asshole who has no positive personality attributes.   


Fear and Loyalty: How Donald Trump Took Over the Republican Party Donald has more control over republican politicians than a Supreme and Dear Leader who can use lethal force with impunity against dissenters.

Trump’s Mar-A-Lago Winter Vacation Pushes Taxpayer Golf Tab Above $118 millionTrump Golf Count


Donald frequently criticized Obama for playing golf: The 27 times Donald Trump tweeted about Barack Obama playing golf too much - SBNation.com Donald is of course a hypocrite who is unable to experience shame. 

In TrumpWorld, Donald has prevented persons with first hand knowledge from testifying about the Ukraine matter because they will exonerate him. Newly released emails provide details in White House pause of Ukraine aid These heavily redacted emails were pried out of the Trump Administration through a Freedom of Information Act request made by Center for Public Integrity who had to obtain a court order to compel Donald to comply with that law.

One of the officials who has been blocked from testifying by Trump is the budget official Michael Duffey, who told the Pentagon to freeze military aid to the Ukraine 91 minutes after Zelensky's 7/25 call. Duffey warned the Pentagon to keep the freeze secret. CPI v DoD Dec 20, 2019 Release  



Trump and republican politicians in both the House and Senate are engaged in efforts to obstruct a proper investigation. There will not be a scintilla of push back from the rank and file.  

US Held Off on Tariffs while Argentina Reviewed Trump Trademarks - CREW


Trump campaign adviser tells Wisconsin Republicans in secret recording that voting-place tactics will be stepped up - MarketWatch

Donald plays "gutter ball" everyday. 'Liars!': Trump fires off post-Christmas tweetstorm over impeachment impasse


Just a few tweets from last Thursday: 






Donald and Toilet Flushing:


Trump and toilets: A theory worth flushing | Charlotte Observer  


Trump Accuses Supporters of Having to Flush 'Ten Times' Only an Extremely Stable Genius could have so much insight on toilet flushing. Trump Discusses Water, Dishwashers, Showers At Rally-YouTube


Trump attacks on wind turbines, low-flow toilets and LED lightbulbs set up key campaign clash with Democrats


Donald's Deep Knowledge about Windmills


Previously, the Extremely Stable Genius claimed that windmills caused cancer. Donald Trump's ridiculous link between cancer, wind turbines | PolitiFact Never fear, Donald the Magnificent will find a cure for cancer. Trump in Cincinnati: I'll end AIDS epidemic, cure childhood cancer


Donald expanded on this line of "thought"  last week: "We’ll have an economy based on wind. I never understood wind. You know, I know windmills very much. I’ve studied it better than anybody. I know it’s very expensive. They’re made in China and Germany mostly — very few made here, almost none. But they’re manufactured tremendous — if you’re into this — tremendous fumes. Gases are spewing into the atmosphere. You know we have a world, right? So the world is tiny compared to the universe. So tremendous, tremendous amount of fumes and everything. You talk about the carbon footprint — fumes are spewing into the air. Right? Spewing. Whether it’s in China, Germany, it’s going into the air. It’s our air, their air, everything — right? So they make these things and then they put them up. "‘I never understood wind’: Trump goes on bizarre tirade against windmills - YouTubeFact checking Trump's rant against windmill fumes 


I have to admit that I have never heard anyone talk like the Duck. It is disheartening that his followers will listen to and cheer this nonsensical babble delivered usually non-stop over a 90 minute period.  


But, I have never been in an insane asylum either.

Will his mental condition improve in his second term?  


+++++++++

All trades are commission free except as otherwise noted.


1. Small Ball Adds:

A. Added 50 TEF at $7.15:




Quote: TEF | Telefonica S.A. ADR Overview | MarketWatch


Closing Price Yesterday: TEF $7.16 +$0.07 +0.99% 


Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy


Shareholders & Investors -Telefónica


Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 50 TEF at  (9/25/19 Post) I discussed the second quarter report in that post.


5 year Chart: Ongoing Bear Market




Dividend Information: Semi-annual


Last Ex Dividend: 12/17



Dividend Reinvestment:  Yes

Current Position: 100 shares


Average cost per share = $7.25


Maximum Position: 150 shares + shares purchased with dividends (increased from 100 shares, with remaining shares bought in 10 share lots using the small ball purchase restriction)


Goal: 2+% annual average return on the shares + dividends


Morningstar still has a 5 star rating with a US$14 fair market value. 


Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19): Revenues increased by 1.7% Y-O-Y which is the first increase in over two year.



Telefónica accelerated revenue growth and earned €1,344m in the first nine months of the year

B. Added 10 FENY at $16.03:



Quote: Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF

Sponsor's Website: FENY | ETF Snapshot - Fidelity


Expense Ratio: .084%


Top 10 Holdings as of 12/24/19:




Energy stocks, which have been in a bear market starting in 2014, have been moving up as of late. 


Five year annual average total returns through 12/26/19:


FENY -3.73%

Fidelity® MSCI Information Tech ETF (FTEC): +18.95%
SPY: +11.28%

The rise in crude oil's price starting in early October is probably the underlying reason. Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)


2. Pares:

A. Sold 100 IGR at $8.01:





Quote: IGR | CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund Overview


Closing Price Yesterday: IGR $7.97 +$0.08 +1.01% 


IGR - CEF Connect


Sponsor's Website: CBRE Clarion


SEC Filings


CBRE CLARION GLOBAL REAL ESTATE INCOME FUND (last shareholder report, period ending on 6/30/19)


Holdings as of 9/30/19


Dividends: Monthly at $.05 per share (supported by ROC) 

Profit Snapshot: $42.98



Average Cost Per Share this Account: $7.59

Item # 1 Bought 200 IGR at $7.58 (6/29/19 Post)


I also still own 100 shares in my IB account. Item # 1 Bought 100 IGR at $7.65 (8/3/19 Post) I do not reinvest dividend in that account.


B. Sold 10 HTA at $30.81:




Quote: Healthcare Trust of America Inc. (HTA)

Website: HTA – Healthcare Trust of America, Inc.
Key Markets HTA – Healthcare Trust of America, Inc.

Closing Price Yesterday: HTA $30.11 +$0.11 +0.37% 


Profit Snapshot: $39.2




Part of 50 Share Lot Purchase: Item # 4 Bought 50 HTA at $26.88 (7/13/19 Post)


Remaining Position: 40 Shares


Average Cost for Remaining Shares = $26.88



Snapshot Intra-Day on 12/6/19
There was no change in the average cost per share number since the 10 shares was sold from one 50 lot purchase.

Dividend: Quarterly at $.315 per share ($1.26 annually)


Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. (HTA) Dividend Date & History


The last quarterly dividend raise was from $.31 to $.315. I do not regard that kind of increase as dividend growth except in a literal and non-meaningful sense.


The annual dividend was at $1.15 per share in 2013 and at $1.25 in 2019, slightly better than a 1% annual average increase. Dividends – HTA I do not regard dividend increases at less than the annual average inflation rate to be dividend increases.  


Next Ex Dividend Date: 12/31/19


Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. Announces its Fourth Quarter Dividend


Dividend Yield at TC of $26.88 = 4.6875%


The stock received a boost when a Stifel Nicolaus analyst upgraded to buy from hold on 11/26 and lifted its PT to $33 from $30. HTA was upgraded by JPM to overweight from neutral (12/18) 


Last Earnings Report: I am not impressed with HTA's reports. AFFO growth per share is at best anemic which explains the low annual increases in the dividend.




Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2019 Earnings


Nine Month Total Dividends 2019 = $190.853M

Nine Month FAD 2019 = $217.15M
Nine Month FAD 2018 =$216.968M

FAD = Funds Available for Distribution


Chart: Healthcare Trust of America Inc. Interactive Chart


C. Sold 10 K at $66.3:


Quote: Kellogg Co. (K)

K | Kellogg Co. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Closing Price Yesterday: K $69.16 +$0.50 +0.73% 


I will probably sell another 10 in January if the price exceeds $69. 


Profit Snapshot: $108.58 (exclude 6/1/19 sell)




This 10 share lot was part of a 50 share purchase: Item # 1 Bought 50 Kellogg at $55.44 and 10 at $54.68-Used Commission Free Trades (7/20/19 Post)


I previously sold another 10 shares from that 50 share lot: Item # 3.B. Sold 10 K at $63.95 (8/10/19 Post) (profit snapshot = $85.08)


10 Year K Chart as of 12/6/19:




K Info as of 12/6/19:



Remaining Shares: 40

Average Cost Per Share = $55.25 (reduced from $55.29 prior to pare)


Dividend: Quarterly at $.57 ($2.28 annually), last raised by 1 cent effective for the 2019 third quarter.



Dividends – Kellogg Company

Last Ex dividend: 11/29/19


Dividend Reinvestment: No (likely reinvestment price is not viewed as attractive) 


If I am not willing to buy shares at the current price, I am not going to reinvest the dividend. 


The fact that I am paring is inconsistent with reinvesting the dividend. 


Moreover, given zero commissions, I can take the dividends paid in cash and buy 1 or 2 shares when the stock falls into my buy range. 


I am not likely to buy more shares at a price higher than my current average cost per share. 


Dividend Yield at a $55.25 TC4.13%


Recent Earnings Report (Q/E 9/28/19): SEC Filed Press Release


Discussed at Kellogg shares rise after earnings and sales beat - MarketWatch


Broker Reports


Deutsche Bank resumed coverage on 12/12 with a buy rating and a $74 price target.


On 12/20/19, BofA Global Research (ML) went from bearish to bullish raising its recommendation and increasing its price target to $75 from $53.  I do not have access to this report. 


The following reports are available to Charles Schwab customers:  


Morningstar (10/29/19): 4 stars with a FV of $78 & "wide moat"


Credit Suisse (10/29/19): Neutral with a $60 PT (if this analyst is confident of his PT, then the recommendation now needs to be underperform)


S & P (10/29/19): 3 stars with a $70 PT

  
Argus (11/7/19): Buy with a $72 PT, raised from $70  (notes that the 13% return on invested capital exceeds Kellogg's weighted average cost of capital by 8 percentage points)

3. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy

January 2020 Maturities: 

SU = Senior Unsecured Bond ($1K par value per bond)
FM = First Mortgage Bond  
CD = Certificate of Deposit ($1K par value per CD)-FDIC Insured


MI = Monthly Interest Payments
Treasury: U.S. Treasury Debt ($1K par value per bill, note or bond)
IR: Investment Rate for Treasury Bills Bought at Auction
Secondary Market: Treasury purchases at less than par

3 Treasury Bills 2.532% YTM 1/2 (secondary market 2/19)

2 Treasury 3MO Bills 1.879%IR 1/2/20 (bought at auction)
2 Valley National 2% CDs 1/2 (3 month CDs) 
3 BK Ozarks 2% CDs 1/2 Roth (3 month CDs)
2 Treasury Bills 1.926%YTM 1/2 (secondary market 9/19)
4 Citigroup 2.45% SU 1/10/20 (bought 1/18; 3/18; 7/18; 2/19)
10 Treasury 58 Day Bills 1.549%IR  1/14 (bought at auction) 
2 Ecolab 2.25% SU 1/15 (bought 3/18)
4 Broadcom 2.375% SU 1/15 (bought 9/18, 3/19) 
2 Dr.Pepper/Snapple 2% SU 1/15 (bought 1/18)
2 Treasury 1.375% 1/15 (secondary market purchases)
2 BP 2.521% 1/15 (bought 2/18; 5/18)
2 BBT 2.45% SU 1/15 (bought 7/18)
6 Duke Florida 1.85% FM 1/15 (bought 1/18; 3/18, 4/19)
2 Arizona Public Service 2.2% SU 1/15 (bought 8/18)
2 Bank of China 1.95% CDs 1/17 (3 month CDs)
2 IberiaBank 2.4% CDs 1/21 (7 month CDs)
10 Treasury 28 Day Bill 1.537% (bought at auction)
2 J.P. Morgan 2.25% SU 1/23 (bought 8/18)
2 Treasury 1.918% YTM 1/23 (secondary market purchase)
2 Morgan Stanley 2.65% SU 1/27 (bought 2/18; 5/18) 
3 Customers BK 2.4% CDs 1/27 (7 month CDs)
3 Bangor BK 1.95% CDs 1/28 (3 month CDs)
2 BK China 1.85% CDs 1/29 ( 2 mo CDs)
2 Cornerstone BK 2% CDs MI 1/30 (3 year CDs)
4 Wells Fargo 2.15% SU 1/30 (bought 1/18, 2/18, 7/18, 2/19)
2 Treasury Bills 1.907% YTM (secondary market 9/19)
1 Suntrust 2.25% SU 1/31 (bought 8/18)
5 City National 1.7% CDs 1/31 (one month CDs)
2 Treasury 2%  1/31 (secondary market purchases)

$92K

*Early Redemptions include 4 Alexander REIT 2.75% SU maturing on 1/15/20 that were redeemed last August with a make whole payment.   

I am no longer discussing short term treasury bill and CD purchases.   


DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members. 

Sunday, December 22, 2019

ARESF, DES, JRI, OFS, SBRA, TWO

Economy:

Japan's exports fall for 12th straight month - MarketWatch


Uncertainty remains on Wall Street about China-US phase one agreement (viewed increasingly as more of a trade truce than a trade deal) Until I am able to read the "Phase 1" agreement, which is not publicly available, and review opinions about its contents from independent trade experts, I will reserve final judgment on the importance.  


Fannie Mae boosts 2020 housing forecast 'significantly'


Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index slumps in December to lowest reading in six months - MarketWatch (.3, down from 10.4 in November; below zero indicates contraction) 


+++


Markets and Market Commentary:


FedEx (FDX) Earnings Q2 FY 2020 (adjusted E.P.S. at $2.51 vs. $2.76 consensus)


Dupont, GoDaddy among Wall Street's most 'undervalued' stocks I have no interest in any of the stocks mentioned in that article. I occasionally will look at DuPont but have not it owned any shares for several years. 


These 10 S&P 500 stocks were lousy in 2019, but they could return 40% or more in 2020 - MarketWatch DuPont made this list as well. 

+++

Portfolio Management

I have been busy on other matters for the past week. 

Notwithstanding earlier comments that I would not be buying more short term treasury bills at auction, given their low yields, I have found myself redeploying most of the proceeds from maturing treasuries, bonds, and CDs into 1 to 3 month treasury bills.  

I am not spending much time researching new stocks to purchase since I am in a sell into strength mode. 

If the stock rally extends into January, I will most likely eliminate all or most of my remaining stock mutual funds, harvesting close to my annual goal of $25+K in capital gains during that month. I will then just wait for the next major bear market to happen. 

In that event, I will likely transition to 1 blog post per month starting next February until my buying picks up again. 

I am hoping that intermediate term interest rates continue to trend higher since I would be more than satisfied with buying high quality corporate bonds, maturing in the 3 to 7 year range, that have 3%+ YTMs (preferably closer to 4% for the 5 to 7 year maturities). Yields are not close to those levels now. 

The ten year treasury closed last Friday with a 1.92% yield. 2019 Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates That yield will probably need to exceed 2.50% to open up what I now view as acceptable intermediate term yields for higher quality corporate bonds.  


Average Yields as of 12/20/19
++++++

Trump:


Former White House officials say they feared Putin influenced the president’s views on Ukraine and 2016 campaign - The Washington Post

Trump calls Democrats 'deranged,' 'spiteful' in angry letter to Pelosi over impeachment Several of Donald's mental illnesses are reflected in this letter, including malignant narcissism, delusional disorder and paranoia. 

Donald is now suffering from what psychologists call narcissistic injury and rage: 


The Destructive Force of Narcissistic Injury | Psychology TodayNarcissistic rage and narcissistic injury - Wikipedia

4 takeaways from the impeachment of President Trump


Lie of the Year 2019: Donald Trump’s claim whistleblower got Ukraine call 'almost completely wrong' | PolitiFact

Giuliani boosted in an interview that Donald is "very supportive" of his efforts in the Ukraine. Giuliani repeatedly asserted that Donald was actively involved in his efforts to smear Joe Biden and to get rid of any State Department official who got in their way. The Ukrainian Prosecutor Behind Trump’s Impeachment | The New Yorker (Giuliani: “I believed that I needed Yovanovitch out of the way. She was going to make the investigations difficult for everybody.”); Giuliani Provides Details of What Trump Knew About Ambassador’s Removal - The New York Times 


Trump repeats many falsehoods in letter to Pelosi about impeachment | PolitiFact


Trump Letter to Pelosi on Impeachment: FactCheck.org (click yellow highlights for fact checks)  

Fact-checking President Trump’s impeachment letter to Pelosi-The Washington Post


Trump touts Putin speaking out against his impeachment

Trump's disgusting and deplorable attack on Debbie Dingell 


Emails Show Trump Asked About Ukraine Aid Before Zelensky Call


++++

"Christianity Today" and Trump

Major evangelical Christian magazine "Christianity Today" says Trump must be removed from office - MarketWatch

Excerpt from Editorial: “The president of the United States attempted to use his political power to coerce a foreign leader to harass and discredit one of the president’s political opponents That is not only a violation of the Constitution; more importantly, it is profoundly immoral. The reason many are not shocked about this is that this president has dumbed down the idea of morality in his administration. He has hired and fired a number of people who are now convicted criminals. He himself has admitted to immoral actions in business and his relationship with women, about which he remains proud. His Twitter feed alone—with its habitual string of mischaracterizations, lies, and slanders—is a near perfect example of a human being who is morally lost and confused.” Trump Should Be Removed from Office | Christianity Today

Trump's Response: 






Trump is malevolent. 

That factual observation, which is not subject to any reasonable and rational dispute among normal people, has nothing to do with politics or political ideology.  

81% of evangelicals voted for Trump in 2016 and 77% of white evangelicals approve of Donald's performance as President. PRRI Poll 


I would estimate that close to 80% of evangelicals will vote for Trump in 2020. If that estimate proves to be wrong, it is more likely to be higher than 80% rather than lower.  

+++++

1. Small Ball Adds:


A. Added 50 ARESF at $8.86:



Quotes:

USD Priced Shares: ARESF (U.S. pink sheet exchange)
CAD Priced Shares: AX-UN.TO

Closing Price Yesterday: ARESF $9.02 +$0.03 +0.33% 

Company Website: Artis REIT





Portfolio Map

Q3-19 Investor Presentation


ARESF is the ordinary share (not an ADR) of the Canadian REIT Artis Real Estate Investment Trust. Five letter symbols ending in "F" indicate the ordinary shares of foreign stock, priced in USDs and traded on either the U.S. Grey Market or the U.S. Pink Sheet Exchange. A 5 letter symbol ending in "Y" indicates that the foreign security is an ADR priced in USDs and traded on one of those two U.S. exchanges.


The ARESF price will reflect the price of the ordinary shares traded in Toronto converted into USDs. XE: Convert CAD/USD. Canada Dollar to United States Dollar


This is an average down from a prior purchase made prior to Artis slashing its monthly distribution by 50%. Item # 1.A. $9.98 (7/9/18 Post)


Artis Real Estate Investment Trust Releases Third Quarter Results and Announces New Initiatives to Deliver Improved Value to Unitholders (11/1/18 Post)


2018 Distribution Slash: Artis was not covering its distribution with cash flow prior to the distribution slash. 


As I recall, the coverage was tight before the collapse in energy prices in 2014 wrecked havoc on property prices and occupancy levels in western Canada (primarily Alberta) where Artis had a significant presence. 

Artis has since reduced its exposure to those energy dependent economies and expanded it footprint in the U.S. 

Current Dividend: Monthly at C$.045 per unit (C$.54 annually)


The dividend yield will depend on the CAD/USD exchange rate, recovery of the 15% withholding tax through utilization of a foreign tax credit,

5 Year Chart at time of Purchase:


Position this Account: 150 units

Maximum USD Priced Units:  200 units

Recent Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19):

Note that the AFFO payout ratio was at 112.5% for the 2018 third quarter and was reduced to 56% in the 2019 third quarter.


The Calgary office segment was reduced to 6.4% of the total. AFFO per unit increased by 4.4% compared to the 2018 third quarter. The weighted average rental rate on renewals increased by 8.7%. The net asset value per share was reported at C$15.72 per unit.

I also own a fixed-to-floating rate Artis equity preferred stock. Item # 3.A. Bought 50 AXPRI at C$23 (12/16/18 Post)AX-PI.TO.

2. Eliminations:

All trades are commission free unless otherwise noted:

A. Sold 102+ JRI at $17.98:



Quote: JRI | Nuveen Real Asset Income & Growth Fund Overview

Profit Snapshot: +$140.67 (ex 9/12/19 sell)



JRI: CEF Connect

Sponsor's website: JRI

JRI SEC Filed Semi-Annual Report (period ending 6/30/19)

JRI SEC Filings

B. Sold 77+ DES at $28.13:



Quote: WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Dividend Fund Overview

Profit Snapshot: +$44.17



Most Recent Discussion: Item # 5.B. Added 5 DES at $26.26; 5 at $25.25; 5 at $24.2 and 5 at $23.4 (1/2/19 Post)

Sponsor's Website: WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Dividend Fund

WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Dividend Fund (DES) Total Returns

I will consider restarting the small ball DES "buying program"  when and if the price sinks below $23.

C. Sold 78+ TWO at $14.7:



Quote: Two Harbors Investment Corp. (TWO)

Profit Snapshot: Net at $3.5



TWO is a mortgage REIT. I view any share profit after collecting several dividends to be a victory.

Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 per share

Two Harbors Investment Corp. Announces Third Quarter 2019 Common and Preferred Stock Dividends

The dividend has been cut several times since hitting $.74 per share back in 2012. The last cut was from $.47 to $.40 effective for the 2019 third quarter payment which went ex dividend on 6/28 and paid on 7/29.

I reinvested the dividend starting with the January 2019 payment.

Two Harbors Investment Corp.-Dividend History

Last Ex Dividend: 9/27/19

Last Earnings ReportTwo Harbors Investment Corp. Reports Third Quarter 2019 Financial Results

I no longer have any exposure to MREIT common or preferred stocks.

3. Small Ball Adds:

A. Bought 10 OFS at $11.06:

Quote: OFS Capital Corp.  (OFS)

Closing Price Yesterday: OFS $11.64  +$0.10 +0.87% 

Website: Homepage - OFS Capital
OFS SEC Filings
2018 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 25 and ends at page 51)

Management: External, a major negative. 


Last Sell DiscussionsItem # 3.B. Sold 10 OFS at $12.04(11/30/19 Post)Item # 4.B. Sold 60 shares at $12 (11/13/19 Post) In the last linked post, I discussed the last earnings report which contained some negative developments. The price decline since those pares made the stock slightly more attractive.

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 3B. Bought 10 OFS at $9.95 and 20 at $9.61 Using Fidelity Commission Free Trades (1/9/19 Post)

Average Cost Per Share This Account: $10.4

Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually)

Dividend Yield at a $10.4 Total Cost = 13.8%

Next Ex Dividend: 12/23/19 


Net Asset Value Per Share History:

The recent trend starting in 2017 is worrisome. 


The decline in the third quarter precipitated the pare of my highest cost lots held in my Fidelity account.  


9/30/19:   $12.74 (14.31% decline from 12/31/16)


6/30/19:   $12.95   Page 2 10-Q  


3/31/19     $13.04   10-Q


12/31/18    $13.10

6/30/18     $13.70
03/31/18   $13.67
12/31/17    $14.12
12/31/16   $14.82
12/31/15    $14.76
12/31/14    $14.24
12/31/13    $14.54

IPO Offering Price at $15 (November 2012) with proceeds after the underwriters' discount at $13.05 Final Prospectus Supplement


Using the $12.74 net asset value per share as of 9/30/19, the discount to net asset value at the 10 share purchase price of $11.06 is 13.19%. Given the NAV per share decline starting in 2017, I do not regard that discount to be an acceptable buffer which explains the rationale for the small ball approach notwithstanding the high dividend yield.   

I also own shares in my Schwab account where I have worked the average cost per share number down to $10.1. 

B. Bought 10 SBRA at $20.76:


Quote: Sabra Healthcare REIT Inc. (SBRA)
Website: Home | Sabra
Sabra SEC Filings

Closing Price Yesterday: SBRA $21.37 +$0.10 +0.45% 

2018 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 13 and ends at page 23)  

Properties: Properties | Sabra



"As of September 30, 2019, Sabra’s investment portfolio included 434 real estate properties held for investment (consisting of (i) 304 Skilled Nursing/Transitional Care facilities, (ii) 62 Senior Housing communities (“Senior Housing - Leased”), (iii) 44 Senior Housing communities operated by third-party property managers pursuant to property management agreements (“Senior Housing - Managed”) and (iv) 24 Specialty Hospitals and Other facilities), one investment in a direct financing lease, 20 investments in loans receivable (consisting of (i) one mortgage loan, (ii) two construction loans and (iii) 17 other loans), nine preferred equity investments and one investment in an unconsolidated joint venture that owns 170 Senior Housing - Managed communities. As of September 30, 2019, Sabra’s real estate properties held for investment included 43,553 beds/units and its unconsolidated joint venture included 7,538 beds/units, spread across the United States and Canada."

Those property sectors are among the riskiest in the REIT universe. 

I recently eliminated by SBRA position held in my Schwab account, selling 135+ shares at $24.3+:



I am not a fan. Harvesting the dividend and selling the stock at a profit, which has been accomplished in the past, is the goal.

SBRA Information Day of Purchase:



SBRA 5 Year Chart Day of Purchase:


Dividend: Quarterly at $.45 per share ($1.8 annually)

Dividend Yield at $20.76 = 8.67%

Last Ex Dividend Date: 11/14/19

Last Discussions: I did discuss buying a few shares in my Fidelity account, using my small ball purchase restriction, but have not bought any shares since I bought 10 shares on 2/9/18. Item # 2.D. Bought 10 SBRA at $16.21(2/12/18 Post)Item # 2.B. Bought 5 SBRA at $17.13 (2/8/18 Post)Item 3.B. Bought 10 SBRA at $17.9 (1/21/18 Post) I can not buy more shares in that account until the purchase price falls below $16.21.

Last Earnings ReportSabra Reports Third Quarter 2019 Results; Continues to Improve Leverage and Other Credit Metrics; Reaffirms 2019 Guidance





During the 2019 third quarter, SBRA sold 4.2M shares under its ATM program at an average price of $21.82. Page 27 10-Q 

Goal: Net profit on the shares + dividends

Last Bond OfferingProspectus (3.9% SU rated Ba1 due 2029, FINRA

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.