Economy:
Existing-Home Sales Soar 9.4% to 6.5 Million in September | www.nar.realtor
Average holiday spend per U.S. household expected to drop 7%, Deloitte says - MarketWatch
Why business demand won't recover before summer 2021, according to finance chiefs - MarketWatch This article reports the results of a recent Deloitte survey of CFOs.
U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
Unemployment claims are down. It’s not all for good reasons For the week ending 10/17, initial unemployment claims filed with the states fell to 787,000, down 55K from the previous week.
Covid: U.S. reports more than 71,600 new cases as hospitalizations rise Donald has been saying for about the past 9 months that the U.S. was turning the corner on the pandemic. That reminds me of line from Princess Bride: "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - YouTube Maybe someone who wants to be fired by Donald immediately could informed him that "turning the corner" does not mean what he thinks it means.
The pandemic looks like it will be a drag on the economy through the winter.
+++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
S & P 500 P/E Ratios as of 10/23/20:
GAAP Trailing 12 Months: 38.25
Non-GAAP Estimated Forward 12 months: 25.55
S & P 500 Dividend Yield: 1.73%
Sourced: P/E & Yields
Technology stocks may be about to drown in their own greatness, says JPMorgan - MarketWatch
Fiscal stimulus may not be enough to boost bank stocks, says J.P. Morgan - MarketWatch
How Much Money to Have Saved to Retire by Age 67
Intel stock slumps after weak data center results, chip delay I do not have a position. I will consider starting a small ball "purchase program" when I have more of a downside cushion than now. I last eliminated Intel in 2018 with an evaporation of the valuation cushion. Intel's problems 'are likely just getting started,' analyst warns as stock slides - MarketWatch
This regional bank stock has done well since my small ball purchase, closing last Friday at $24.65. Union Bankshares Inc. (UNB) The market cap at that price is about 110.306M. If I owned more shares, I would have sold some when the price went over $25. Item # 1.N. Bought 5 UNB Schwab Account at $18.4 (8/29/20 Post); Item # 1.J. Restarted UNB-Bought 5 at $18.5; 5 at $18.19 (8/22/20 Post) The last report was solid but some of the factors contributing to the result are likely short term (mortgage banking profits) or definitely short term as with the PPP fee income. SEC Filed 3rd Quarter Report ("Consolidated net income for the three months ended September 30, 2020 was $4.1 million, or $0.92 per share, compared to $2.7 million, or $0.62 per share, for the same period in 2019.") UNB is benefiting, as are many small regional banks, from their mortgage business: "Sales of qualifying residential loans to the secondary market for the third quarter of 2020 were $89.8 million resulting in gain on sales of $3.3 million, compared to sales of $44.7 million and gain on sales of $824 thousand for the third quarter of 2019." The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $.32 per share.
++++
Portfolio Management:
The TINA Trade-There Is No Alternative
Part of the TINA trade involves exchange traded bonds and preferred stocks.
My investment grade corporate bonds, municipal bonds, CDs and treasuries are in a runoff phase.
I am picking up decent yields in out-of-favor common stocks that have what I would call a valuation cushion based on recent price declines.
I attempt to limit the potential downside risk through small ball trading, purchases and sells, even though I will frequently view the first purchase as being in a longer term fair value range for the business.
Some of the sectors where valuation cushions have been created through price declines include regional bank, BDC, life insurance, equity REITs, and energy infrastructure (only regular "C" corporations for me) stocks.
I have expanded the universe of what I am willing to own in small doses, which includes small positions in a number of growth stock ETFs and mutual funds. Those have been working as of late, but those stocks are bungee jumpers and presently in the jump up phase.
I have picked up my dollar exposure to bond and stock CEFs.
I am not making any dent in my high cash allocation. The cash allocation is remaining stable as a percentage of total assets reflecting net risk asset purchases, rallies in several stock sectors and a lower flow of cash received from maturing fixed income securities and those redeemed early by the issuer.
I will not have an optional redemption of a municipal bond until 2022. I have not sold any. My average weighted tax free current yield is a tick over 3% based on my total cost number.
The following tables contain the stocks currently owned in my regional bank basket strategy, with 1 exception that I will probably eliminate next week. A few stocks have not yet been discussed here:
55 stocks
PFC has a dividend yield of 4.58%, using its closing price, which is not picked up by Yahoo Finance in the last table above. Premier Financial Corp. I have not yet discussed a 10 share purchase at $18.2, made on 10/21
Closing prices and gains are as of the 10/23/20 close.
The trailing 12 month P/Es include some rough quarters.
My sector stock baskets are mini funds.
++++
Trump:
On a daily basis now, Donald is proving beyond any doubt that he is unfit to be President. That obvious factual statement has nothing to do with ideology.
I would not trust him to tell me the truth on any subject.
Trump is averaging more than 50 false or misleading claims a day - The Washington Post (10/22/2020). For the first 27 days in August, Donald made 1,506 false and misleading statements, or 56 per day, with some days logged at 189 (a new record) on 8/11/2020 and 147 on both 8/17 and 8/20. I am not aware of anyone in U.S. history who lies as much as Donald. We will know in a few days how many Americans will vote to give this sociopathic, lying demagogue another 4 years as President.
Fact check: The final 2020 presidential election debate Trump bombarded voters with more false statements than in the prior debate.
FactChecking the Final 2020 Presidential Debate - FactCheck.org Trump is incapable of telling the truth and lies constantly, yet 81% of republicans believe that he is honest. Question 11: National (US) Poll - June 18, 2020
In violation of his agreement with CBS, Donald pre-released the video of his 60 minutes interview that CBS will air tomorrow. Trump's '60 Minutes' interview with Lesley Stahl: top moments My reaction is that he wanted to get ahead of the negative blowback.
Supreme Court will hear Trump appeal to exclude undocumented immigrants from count
FactChecking Trump's Town Hall - FactCheck.org It is just amazing that anyone with IQ higher that a potted plant would consider Donald to be honest.
How Trump took credit for the 2014 VA Choice Act, denying Obama’s, McCain’s contributions - The Washington Post, republished at MSN: Spin, hyperbole and deception: How Trump claimed credit for an Obama veterans achievement
State Department signals it will keep most details of its spending at Trump’s properties hidden until after election - The Washington Post; republished at MSN: State Department signals it will keep most details of its spending at Trump’s properties hidden until after election
Romney: Trump's refusal to disavow QAnon is part of "alarming pattern" in politics - Axios
Romney might as well be talking to himself. His words have no relevance or impact in Trump's party. Mitt Romney says he did not vote for Trump in the 2020 election There is no daylight between Donald and the republican party.
Ex-RNC chair Michael Steele officially endorses Biden | TheHill
PolitiFact | Trump falsely says federal debt was going down before the pandemic
PolitiFact | Donald Trump’s long, false list of things Joe Biden would ban, abolish or destroy
Trump's Misleading Medicare Boast - FactCheck.org
Trump targets Democratic VP nominee Kamala Harris in sexist rant - Business Insider
Trump's Long History With Conspiracy Theories - FactCheck.org
See what these Trump supporters say about QAnon
QAnon events: A CNN reporter went to two. Here's what he found One of the more intelligent QAnon True Believers had a sign declaring that Tom Hanks was a pedophile. The reporter ask him what proof did have supporting that declaration, which was libel per se. The True Believer shot back angrily what proof did the reporter have to prove that Tom was not a pedophile. The reporter then pointed out that the person making the accusation had to have the proof, which is correct of course, and that made the Trumpster angry. How would Tom prove that he was not a pedophile. How do you prove a negative? He could gather together every single person that he had met since he was a young child, but that would be futile since he would not remember all of their names or how to contact them. Assuming he found several thousand people that knew him, and have them sign affidavits that they never saw him engage in that conduct and further attest to his good character. But, even then, the QAnon True Believer would say that he intentionally missed the victims in that mountain of affidavits attesting to his innocence and good character. QAnon Isn’t Going Away: The Atlantic Daily - The Atlantic
Trump, easily the most prominent spreader of baseless conspiracy theories in U.S. history, does the same, accusing people without proof and contrary to the available evidence of committing a felony or some immoral or unethical act that he has committed and denies of course.
What proof did Donald have, for example, when he accused Joe Scarborough of murdering his intern. He had none and all of the proof established that the intern died an accidental death.
How Republican Voters Took QAnon Mainstream - The New York Times
Why Trump Won't Denounce QAnon - The Atlantic The QAnon supporters are a growing and important part of the GOP's core base.
The Right’s Disinformation Machine Is Hedging Its Bets
Trump at a Rally 10/19: “I call some guy, the head of Exxon. I call the head of Exxon. I don’t know. … ‘How are you doing? How’s energy coming? When are you doing the exploration? Oh, you need a couple of permits?’ But I call the head of Exxon I say, ‘You know, I’d love [for you] to send me $25 million for the campaign.’ ‘ Absolutely sir .. would you like some more?’" He called his comments a hypothetical. Trump Explains Theoretical Bribery He Could Do | Law & Crime; Exxon, after Trump's hypothetical bribery comment: 'Just so we’re all clear, it never happened' - MarketWatch
Sen. Ernst, Who Sits On Agriculture Committee Can’t Name Price Of Soybeans-YouTube She had no idea and tried to evade answering a simple question about the price of soybeans. Senator Ernst came into prominence during her first campaign for the senate, claiming that she had castrated a pig and was shown riding a Harley-her two most noteworthy achievements to become a U.S. senator. Ignorance is a virtue in Trump's party.
Texas social workers can now turn away LGBTQ, disabled clients
The Whiner-in-Chief complains about almost everything. Trump campaign protests topics of final presidential debate - POLITICO People are so mean to the Duck, unwilling to recognize that he is after all the Chosen One, a role model for republican children due in large part to his integrity, modesty, selflessness and honesty.
Ted Cruz Supported Eight Justices on Supreme Court if Hillary had been elected | Law & Crime
Trump Is Practically Begging Barr to Dig Up Dirt on the Bidens | Vanity Fair (10/20/20) Dictator Don's demand made to his servile, slithering Attorney General was made last Tuesday during a long rant on Fox and Friends.
‘Where are all of the arrests?’: Trump demands Barr lock up his foes - POLITICO;
Rally crowd chants 'lock him up' as Trump calls Biden family 'a criminal enterprise' | TheHill;
Trump pressures Barr to investigate, lock up Bidens
Parents of 545 children separated at US border still can't be found
New York Times: Tax records show Trump maintains Chinese bank account; Trump Records Shed New Light on Chinese Business Pursuits - The New York Times
GOP pollster Frank Luntz on Trump-Biden town halls, undecided voters Luntz claims that the voters who are still undecided dislike Trump but are also worried about Biden's policies. If those voters do no break to the incumbent President soon, historical evidence indicates that they will break to the challenger.
Trump Slams 'Fake' Fox News Poll Showing Biden Leading in Majority of Swing States
Trump says he hopes Supreme Court strikes down ObamaCare- TheHill Donald will have a replacement, a much cheaper and far better plan and will announce it at some future time.
Trump ad on America's comeback features footage from Russia, Slovenia
Lincoln Project Mocks Trump With Fake Retro Ad Pushing Covid Drug-YouTube
Remember El Paso (English)-YouTube This ad focuses on one example where Donald and Fox "news" contributed to a violent attack by a Trump cult member.
Teen with van full of guns had checklist to 'execute' Joe Biden, authorities say
Previously, I have mentioned Jason Miller, one of Donald's senior advisors. It is important for people to understand the kind of people that Trump elevates to important positions. Deadbeat | The Lincoln Project
+++
Covid 19-Updates:
 |
| As of 10/23/20 |
All of the times President Trump said Covid-19 will disappear
Increase in Covid cases sets U.S. record, at over 77K in one day (10/23/20); America hits highest daily number of coronavirus cases since pandemic began (WP article republished for now at MSN)
Trump Mocks Reporter for Wearing 'Largest' Mask As U.S. Reports 71,000 Daily COVID Cases
Trump hasn't spent $9 billion earmarked for COVID-19 testing: report - Business Insider, referring to this WP article: Trump’s den of dissent: Inside the White House task force as coronavirus surges - The Washington Post
Dr. Don on 10/19/20: "People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots.” Coronavirus: Trump calls Fauci a 'disaster,' says people 'are tired of Covid'
Just listen to Dr. Don who knows more than any of those scientists, really more than all the scientists who have ever lived or will live in the future, not only on earth, but everywhere in the Universe since the big bang.
During the first debate with Sleepy Joe, Dr. Don said he was being "sarcastic" when he recommended that people drink household cleaners to treat Covid-19. Biden mocks Trump over disinfectant remark; Trump says he was being sarcastic | TheHill
Doofus Don was serious of course when he made those remarks. You only have to watch the video and have an IQ higher than a potted plant to come to the only conclusion possible: Trump on use of disinfectant, light against virus - YouTube
Twitter removes tweet from the top Trump Covid adviser, Dr. Scot Atlas saying masks don't work "Everything he says is false," a recent statement by the CDC director statement referring to Atlas. So it is not surprising that Dr. Don, Phd and M.D. in B.S., relies on Atlas for recommendations.
Kansas City area hospital hits record number of covid cases | The Kansas City Star
Wisconsin admits 1st patient to field hospital, reports record COVID-19 deaths - ABC News
U.S. Sets Coronavirus Case Record Amid New Surge - The New York Times (10/23/20)
Covid-19 Patients Push U.S. Hospitals to Brink - The New York Times (10/23/20) Flu season is just starting.
SUNY Oneonta president resigns after more than 700 students test positive for Covid-19
Covid-19 cases climbing in almost every state as U.S. braces for possible 'third peak' (10/18/20)
Coronavirus hospitalizations at peak in at least 16 states (10/19/20)
New Covid infections surge by at least 50 percent in some states (10/19/20)
Donald has a campaign ad out that shows him wearing a mask on multiple occasions. New Trump ad features multiple clips of president wearing mask | TheHill The intent is to send a message to the brain dead inconsistent with his actual conduct and words that downplayed and even belittled the importance of mask wearing. What Trump Has Said About Wearing Masks and Covid-19 - The New York Times Donald's messaging depends on the recipients remaining stupid, ignorant and gullible, all of those conditions must continue to exist for the messaging to have an impact favorable to him. Fortunately for him, there is no shortage of persons who meet all of those criteria.
Texas woman died of coronavirus 'on the jetway' on flight from Arizona
Mask request by Starbucks barista prompts customer tirade: 'This is America ... Trump 2020!'
The Trump Administration Shut a Vaccine Safety Office Last Year. What’s the Plan Now? - The New York Times; republished at MSN: The Trump Administration Shut a Vaccine Safety Office Last Year. What’s the Plan Now?
++++++++
1. Small Ball: Baseball analogy-Small ball (baseball)-Wikipedia (bunt, walk, hit by pitch, singles, stealing bases, etc.)
(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved:
The overreaching goal is to reduce risk through a controlled and disciplined trading strategy that realizes gains particularly through selling the highest cost lots that reduce my average cost per share which increases my dividend yield.
Risks are controlled by a variety of techniques including the limitations on dollar exposures to each stock and on each purchase.
The reasons for selling the highest cost lots first are (1) to reduce my income tax obligation resulting from a sell; (2) to generate a total return in excess of the dividend payments; (3) to increase my dividend yield on the remaining shares; (4) to take advantage of normal up and down volatility by selling the highest cost lots profitably and then by buying when the price falls below the lowest price paid in the chain; (5) to make it more likely that I will buy during a meltdown after selling higher cost shares (psychological); and (6) to mitigate risk through less at risk monetary exposure.
A. Added to AOD-Bought 10 at $8.08:
Quote: Aberdeen Total Dynamic Dividend Fund Overview
Last Discussed: Item # 1 Started AOD -Bought 50 at $8.17 (9/12/20 Post)
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report - period ending 4/30/20
SEC Filed Portfolio as of 7/31/20
Dividend: Monthly at $.0575 per share ($.69 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 10/16/20 (owned as of)
Aberdeen Total Dynamic Dividend Fund Common Stock (AOD) Dividend History
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes as long as the likely discount to net asset value per share exceeds 10%.
Data Date of 10/13/20 Trade:
Net asset value per share: $9.44
Market Price: $8.07
Discount: -14.51%
Source: AOD-CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab)
Average Cost Per Share: $8.15 7 (60+ shares)
Yield at AC = 8.47%
B. Added to PFBI-Bought 5 at $10.7 and Sold Highest Cost 5 shares at $12.75:
Purchase:
Sold:
Profit 5 shares = $3.74
Stock Information as of 10/23/20:
Quote: Premier Financial Bancorp Inc. (PFBI)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 1.H. Started PFBI-Bought 10 at $12; 5 at $11.4; 5 at $11.2 (10/3/20 Post) I discussed the second quarter earnings report in that post. The third quarter report has not yet been released.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share
New Average Cost per share: $11.43
Yield at AC = 5.25%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/14/20 (owned 20 shares as of)
C. Added to GLQ-Bought 2 at $11.11:
Quote: Clough Global Equity Fund Overview
Closing Price 10/23: GLQ $11.48 -$0.07 -0.61%
Last Discussed: Item #1.H. Started GLQ-Bought 10 at $11.37; 10 at $11.18 (8/8/20 Post)
Leveraged: Yes, substantially
Last SEC Filed Report (semiannual for the period ending 4/30/20)
Dividend: Monthly at $.1104 ($1.3248 annually)
Average Cost Per Share: $11.26 (22+ shares)
Yield at AC = 11.77%
Data Date of 9/22/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $13.45
Closing Market Price: $11.04
Discount: -16.65%
Sourced from GLQ - CEF Connect
D. Started EDIV-Bought 1 at $24.26; 4 at $23.95; 2 at $23.5:
Quote SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Dividend ETF
Closing Price 10/23: EDIV $24.92 +$0.26 +1.05%
"Emerging Markets Dividend ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the S&P® Emerging Markets Dividend Opportunities Index" The ETF invests in the 100 highest yielding stocks in that Index.
Sponsor's Website: Emerging Markets Dividend ETF
TOP Holdings:
Expense Ratio: .49%
Dividend: Quarterly at a variable rate
Average Cost Per Share: $23.87 (7 shares)
Yield at AC: 4.11% rounded The actual future yield will vary. The calculation uses the total of the past 4 dividend payments which was $.98 per share rounded.
I am simply searching for yield wherever I can find it. I do not like ETFs that select the highest yielding stocks in an index since there are reasons many of them have high yields and those reasons are not favorable to either dividend growth or dividend stability at current payout rates.
Morningstar Rating: 1 Star
Total Return YTD as of 10/23:
The ETF did have positive total returns of 17.14%, 28.18%, and 11.8% in 2016, 2017, and 2019 respectively.
Part of the poor total return has been due to the weakness in the emerging market stock sector.
E. Added to ONB-Bought 5 at $12.23:
Quote: Old National Bancorp (ONB)
162 banking centers as of 9/30/20
Headquartered in Evansville, Indiana with branches located in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
$22.5B in assets as of 9/30/20
Stock Information as of 10/23:
Website: Old National Bank investor relations
Old National Bank 5 year Financial Highlights.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy (contains historical profit and loss trading snapshots for stocks in this basket)
Last Discussed: Item # 4.B. Restarted ONB-Bought 10 at $12.71 (6/27/20 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share $.56 annually)
Average Cost Per Share: $12.55
Yield at AC = 4.46%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/31/20
Earnings Report (6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $10.75
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): This earnings report was released after my purchases. In response, the stock was up 2.62% on a day that the S & P 500 fell $14.12.
Old National Bancorp EPS beats by $0.13-Seeking Alpha
Old National reports 3rd quarter earnings of $77.9 million, or $0.47 per share
"Included in the third quarter were pre-tax charges of $2.9 million for the ONB Way. Excluding these charges from the current quarter and netting out debt securities gains, adjusted net income was $76.4 million, or $0.46 per diluted share." The "ONB Way" is a restructuring program designed to reduce costs.
NIM: 3.03%
"Accretion income was $5.4 million, or 11 basis points of net interest margin, in the third quarter of 2020 compared to $5.8 million, or 12 basis points of net interest margin, in the second quarter of 2020."
Efficiency Ratio: 55.93% (good)
Charge-offs: None, with the bank reporting instead net recoveries of $3M (excellent +)
NPL Ratio: 1.15% (tad high)
ROE: 10.79% (good)
Return on Tangible Equity: 17.54% (excellent)
ROA: 1.4% (good +)
Good = Better than average
"cost of total deposits declined 4 basis points to 0.13% in the third quarter of 2020 while the cost of total interest-bearing deposits decreased 6 basis points to 0.19%" This benefit to NIM has run its course. The cost of deposits is not going below zero percent.
"gains on sales of debt securities increased $4.4 million when compared to the second quarter of 2020."
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $11.1
Capital Ratios: Okay IMO as of 9/30/20
Some Prior Sell Discussions: I can not find discussions for some sells where I have profit snapshots: $67.58 in 2015; $90.48 in 2016, both 50 share lots. I did briefly mention the 2016 in a 10/31/16 comment (sold 50 at $14.95)
Item # 4.A. Sold 10 ONB at $19.66 (7/29/18)(trade snapshot = $29.19);
Item 2.A. Eliminated ONB-Sold 50 Shares at $18.55 (2/27/17 Post)(profit snapshot=$312.97)
Item # 6 Sold 50 ONB at $13.05-Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 6/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $69.5)
Item # 1 Sold 100 ONB at $13 (8/22/12 Post)(snapshot of profit=$99.07)
Item # 1 Sold 50 ONB at $14.12 (7/6/13 Post)(Profit snapshot=$95.13)
ONB Trading Profits to Date: $786.45
F. Added to BHB-Bought 1 at $19.15:
Quote: Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB)
Stock Information as of 10/23:
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Bond Offering: $40M of 4.625% fixed to floating rate subordinated notes maturing in 2029.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.D. Added to BHB-Bought 5 at $17.5; 5 at $14; 2 at $13.8; 2 at $13.5 (5/2/2020 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.22 per share, last raised from $.2 effective for the 2019 second quarter payment.
Bar Harbor Bankshares Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
BHB had been raising its dividend annually in the second quarter. There was no increase in the 2020 second quarter due to the recession and pandemic.
Average Cost per share this account= $21.49 (97+ shares)
Yield at AC = 4.09%
Next Ex Dividend Date: 11/17/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): Since BHB will soon issue its third quarter report, I will simply include here some selected snapshots from the 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/20.
BHB Trading Profits to Date: $4,187.54
G. Added to ISBC-Bought 5 at $7.21; 5 at $7.09; 5 at $6.9:
Quote: Investors Bancorp Inc. (ISBC)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Stock Information as of 10/23:
ISBC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investors Relations | Investors Bank
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Started ISBC-Bought 10 at $7.97; 4 at $7.7 (9/5/20 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/20 Tangible book value per share was $10.53 as of 6/30/30.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share
Average Cost Per Share: $7.48 (30 shares)
Yield at AC = 6.42%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/7/20
The third quarter earnings report will be released next week, probably on 10/28.
H. Started PBCT Fidelity Account-Multiple Buys with an average cost per share of $10.42:
 |
| Snapshot 10/22/20 Close |
Quote: People's United Financial Inc (PBCT)
"Founded in 1842, People's United Bank offers commercial and retail banking through a network of more than 400 retail locations in Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine."
The largest position is in my Schwab taxable account (90+ shares).
Stock Information as of 10/23:
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. Added 3 PBCT at $10.58; 5 at $10.41 - Schwab Account (9/5/20 Post)
Dividend: $.18 per share ($.72 annual)
Last raised from $.1775 effective for the 2020 first quarter
PBCT is a member of the dividend aristocrats, which requires at least 25 years of consecutive annual dividend increases. ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL)
Stock Information | Dividend History | People's United Bank
Last Ex Dividend : 7/31/20
Next Ex Dividend: 10/30/20
Dividend Yield at $10.42 AC = 6.91%
5 Year Chart:
This chart shows typical topping action in 2017-2018. Possible bottoming action starting in March 2020.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): People's United Financial Reports Third Quarter Net Income of $144.6 Million, or $0.34 per Common Share
E.P.S. of $.34 was 5 cents better than the consensus.
Tangible Book Value Per Share: $10.37
NIM: 2.97% (3% excluding the negative impact from PPP loans)
Charge off ratio = .15%
Coverage Ratio: 138.4%
NPL Ratio: .68%
Efficiency Ratio: 53.8%
Return on Tangible Equity: 13.1%
ROA Ratio: .94%
"assets under discretionary management totaled $8.9 billion"
"non-interest income totaled $101.1 million in 3Q20 compared to $89.6 million in 2Q20."
"provision for credit losses on loans of $27.1 million, decreased $53.7 million linked-quarter."
I discussed this earnings report in a 10/22/20 comment.
Other Recent News:
People's United Financial Announces Updated Loan Forbearance Data (9/15/20)("As of September 11, 2020, total deferrals were approximately $1.6 billion, compared to more than $7.1 billion at June 30, 2020.")
People's United Bank Agrees to Sell People's United Insurance Agency to AssuredPartners (9/22/20)("Under the terms of the Agreement, the purchase price is $120 million in cash, reflecting a 3.7x multiple of LTM revenue.")
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 3.A. Eliminated PBCT-Sold 101+ at $17.57 (5/22/19 Post); Item # 4 Sold 100 PBCT at $14.61 (9/21/13 Post)
PBCT Realized Gains to Date: $486.53
I. Started PBCT in Vanguard Taxable Account-Multiple Buys with an average cost per share of $10.56:
20 Shares
Yield at $10.56 = 6.82%
See Item 1.H. above.
J. Started KC-Bought 1 at $32.25; 1 at $30; 1 at $28.45 :
Quote: Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Ltd. ADR (KC)
Closing Price 10/23: KC $31.15 $0.37 +1.20%
KC Analyst Estimates KC is in the heavy loss phase resulting from growing its operations.
Investment Classification: Lottery Ticket Basket
Average Cost Per Share: $30.23 (3 shares)
Kingsoft is a Chinese company that provides cloud services. My thinking on this one, which barely qualifies as a thought, is that Chinese companies will gravitate to Kingsoft and its competitors based in China for cloud services rather than U.S. or other foreign based companies.
Revenues are growing rapidly. SEC Filed Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/20 ("total revenues were RMB1,534.8 million (US$1217.2 million) in the second quarter of 2020, representing an increase of 64.1 % year-over-year.")
I bought shortly after a recent stock offering that included shares offered by insiders. The public offering price was at U.S.$31 per ADR. Prospectus
The IPO was at $17 last May. Prospectus
I have reinvigorated the Lottery Ticket basket since I will not be visiting a casino until I am confident that the pandemic is over.
I quit updating the basket as of 10/15/2015 Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy (net realized gains then at $14,012.42). It has been much of the same since then. There will be a high number of less than optimal selections that will need to be blown out of the basket and several huge percentage gainers. Total dollar exposure per stock is limited to $1K now, up from $300 earlier; and I am nowhere near the new limit on any of the ones currently owned.
K. Added to RIOCF-Bought 10 at $10.56:
Quotes:
USD Priced Shares: RIOCF (traded on the U.S. pink sheet exchange)
Symbols ending in the letter "F" denote the ordinary shares of a foreign company, not an ADR, that are priced in USDs and traded on the U.S. pink sheet exchange or the U.S. Grey Market.
CAD Priced Shares: RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust (Canada: Toronto)
Closing Price 10/23: RIOCF US$11.47 +$0.21 +1.83%
Investment Classification: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed Item # 1.J. Restarted RIOCF-Bought 10 at Average Cost of $10.94 (8/1/2020 Post)
Dividend: Monthly at C$.12 per unit
RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust Announces October 2020 Distribution - RioCan REIT
Canada will withhold 15%. The yield before this withholding will vary depending on the CAD/USD exchange rate. The after tax yield will depend on the investors marginal tax rate and the ability to recover the payment made to Canada as a foreign tax credit.
Assuming a constant .75 CAD/USD exchange rate, which will not happen but is currently close to the actual currency conversion, the annual payment of C$1.44 would convert into U.S. $1.08 and a 10.05% yield at a TC of $10.75 before taxes.
Average Cost Per share: $10.75 (20 shares/units)
Yield: The actual dividend yield will depend on the CAD/USD exchange for each monthly payment.
Last Earnings Report (6/30/20)
FFO per unit = C$.35, down from $C.48 in the 2019 second quarter. If that does not improve significantly soon, I view a dividend cut as likely.
RioCan Announces Second Quarter Results For 2020 - RioCan REIT
I am taking an extremely cautious approach.
L. Added to OKE-Bought 1 at $24.9:
Quote: ONEOK Inc (OKE)
Stock Information as of 10/23:
Investment Classification: Bond substitute; Deep Contrarian Value- Hated Stock
Website: ONEOK, Inc.
5 Year Chart:
Last Discussed: Item # 1.G. Started OKE-Bought 5 at $27.77 (6/13/20 Post)
I also discussed in that post buying 2 OKE 3.375% SU bonds maturing on 1/1/2022 which I still own (Item # 2.C.). The total cost was at 97.01. FINRA Bond Detail Starting in late February when this bond was trading near 104, there was a sharp decline in March with the bottom occurring near 87.5 on 3/19/20, followed by a spike up to 104 on 6/18/20. My purchase was on 4/28. The March decline was fairly typical for Baa3-Baa1 rated bonds. The fear expressed in that kind of widespread decline has nothing to do with interest rate risk, since rates were falling, but imaginary fears run amok about credit risks.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.935 per share ($3.74 annually)
Several brokerages are suggesting that the company may cut its dividend soon.
Average cost per share this account: $27.37 (6+ shares)
Dividend Yield at $27.37 = 13.66%
Next Ex Dividend: 10/30/20
ONEOK Declares Quarterly Dividend
Last Earnings Report (6/30/20): SEC Filed News Release
Broker Reports:
ONEOK raised to Buy at UBS on boost in Bakken gas volumes-Seeking Alpha (9/29/20) The UBS PT is $35. Most brokerage firms hate this stock and have been reducing their ratings and price targets throughout 2020. This is one of the few positive broker actions.
M. Added to AT & T-Bought 2 at $27.95; 1 at $27.78; 1 at $27.57; 1 at $27.13; 1 at $26.77 :
T | AT&T Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Sold 11 AT & T at $38.21- Highest Cost Shares (3/7/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $73.88)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 4.A. Bought 5 T at $27.7 and 10 at $26.95-Used Commission Free Trades(1/16/19 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.52 per share ($2.08 annually)
Average Cost Per Share this account: $28.44
Last Ex Dividend: 10/8/20 (owned all as of)
Dividend Yield at AC = 7.31%
AT&T is a dividend aristocrat. Dividend Aristocrats
The Credit Suisse analyst argues that the dividend needs to be "reset".
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): This report was released after all purchases. The market initially responded favorably to this release: T $28.28 +$1.56 +5.84% (10/22/20) That reaction has already started to fade.
"The company expects 2020 free cash flow of $26 billion or higher with a full-year dividend payout ratio in the high 50s%. The company also continues to expect gross capital investment in the $20 billion range in 2020."
AT&T Reports Third-Quarter Results
Other Recent Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Sold 13 AT & T at $38.49 (10/30/19 Post); Item # 1.E. Sold 10 T at $37.77 (1/28/18 Post)
The last 100 share position was sold on 11/2/2010:
The price closed that day at $28.94. Item # 7 Sold 102+ AT&T at $28.96 (11/3/2010) The snapshot above also includes another earlier 2010 sell: Item # 5 Sold 100 AT & T at 28.69 (9/27/10 Post)
Most of the recent realized gains have been pursuant to a dividend harvest strategy where I hope to collect one or more dividend payments and then to exit the position at a profit.
I do not view AT & T to be a worthy long term investment unless the purchases are made during price collapses, selling higher cost lots on price pops, and ceasing dividend reinvestments at higher prices. The dividend amount taken in cash can then be used to buy shares in the open market during a price collapse
I ceased reinvesting the dividend when the likely reinvestment price was over $35 and have restarted reinvestment after the price decline below $30.
Analyst Craig Moffett explains his sell rating on AT&T
AT&T: Surprisingly Strong Quarter Is Misleading (NYSE:T) | Seeking Alpha (not yet behind SA's paywall)
AT&T lower again as analysts react to Q3 earnings (NYSE:T) | Seeking Alpha
AT&T Shows Its 7.7 % Dividend Is Still Safe – 24/7 Wall St.
My consider to sell price is currently at $35 or higher.
Broker Reports Available To Schwab Customers:
Credit Suisse (10/20/20): Neutral with a $31 PT
S & P (10/22/20): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $35
Argus (10/23/20): Buy with a $38 PT.
The Morningstar report has not yet been updated to reflect the most recent quarter.
N. Added to MET-Bought 1 at $35.52:
Quote: MetLife Inc.
Investment Category: Contrarian Value; Bond Substitute
Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. Restarted MET-Bought 5 at $37.3 (8/29/20 Post) I discussed the second quarter earnings report in that post. I also have snapshots in that post of prior round-trips and links to prior buy and sell trade discussions.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.46 per share ($1.84 annually), raised from $.44 effective for the 2020 second quarter.
MetLife, Inc. - Stock - Common Dividend History
Average Cost Per share this account: $37
Yield at AC = 4.97%
Next Ex Dividend Date: 11/2/20
MET Realized Gains to Date: $707.67
O. Added to FIDI-Bought 2 at $15.46:
Quote: FIDI | Fidelity International High Dividend ETF Overview
Sponsor's Website: FIDI | ETF Snapshot - Fidelity
Average cost per share: $16.21 (22 shares)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.I. Started FIDI-Bought 10 at $16.56; 5 at $16.11; 5 at $15.91 (8/2/20 Post) I have nothing to add here.
P. Added to EXG-Bought 20 at $7.4:
Quote: Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund Overview
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Bought 100 EXG at $7.42 (7/11/20 Post)
Dividend: Monthly at $.0616 per share ($.7392 annually)
Average Cost Per Share this account: $7.42 (123+ shares)
Dividend Yield at AC = 9.96%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/22/20 (owned all as of)
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Data on Date of 9/28/20 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $8.38
Closing Market Price: $7.37
Discount: -12.05%
Sourced: EXG-CEF Connect
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3 Sold 331+ EXG at $9.77_(6/2/13 Post)(profit snapshot =$294.46)
Q. Started PLYM (Schwab Taxable)-Bought 10 at $12:
Quote: Plymouth Industrial REIT Inc.
Stock Information as of 10/23:
Company Website: Plymouth Industrial REIT - Boston
Portfolio - Plymouth Industrial REIT
This PYLM purchase and the one mentioned below were made shortly before the ex dividend date.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item #1.F. Started PLYM Fidelity Account-Bought 10 at $12.85; 5 at $12.1; 5 at $11.8 (8/1/2020 Post)
Dividend Yield at $12 = 6.67%
Dividend: Quarterly at $.20 per share
The company was paying out too much in common share dividends and cut the penny rate to $.20 from $.375 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment.
Last Ex Dividend: 9/20/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20):
Brokerage Reports: I do not have access to any substantive analyst report.
On 9/29/20, Wedbush cut its price target to $15 from $20 but kept its outperform rating. According to a news blurb, one reason given for the PT cut was a recent stock offering. (stock sold to public at $12.85-August 2020 Prospectus)
On 9/23/20, Baird started at outperform with at $16 price target.
R. Started PLYM (Vanguard Taxable)-Bought 10 at $11.92:
Yield at $11.92 = 6.71%
See Item L. above.
S. Sold 5 BDGE at $20.05 (highest cost lot):
Profit Snapshot: $2.74 (10/22 sell only)
I sold on the ex dividend date.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
I discussed adds in my last post. Item # 1.K. Added to BDGE-Bought 2 at $17.45; 2 at $17.2; 2 at $17.03 and 1 at $16.8 (10/17/20 Post)
New Average Cost this Account: $17.96
Yield at AC = 5.35%
Selling the highest cost lot(s) when the price pops is part of small ball which is primarily a cautious, risk-control trading technique that focuses on beaten up dividend paying stocks priced well below the S & P 500 P/E multiple and a substantially higher dividend yields than that index. This particular risk control technique is tailored for today's commission free trades and my primary goals of capital preservation and income generation. It is also based on an awareness that I do not know the future.
BDGE Realized Gains to Date: $2,751.05 (snapshots in Regional Bank Basket Strategy post under BDGE)
2. Equity REIT Preferred Stocks:
A. Eliminated BPYUP-Sold 10 at $19:
Quote: Brookfield Property REIT Inc. 6.375% Pfd. Series A Overview
Profit Snapshot: +$46.29
Item # 1.L. Bought 10 BPYUP at $14.27 (8/20/20 Post)
Investment Categories: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks; Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy; Lottery Ticket.
I view this preferred stock as high risk. The REIT owns malls and has a lot of debt, all of which is senior to the preferred stock.
Sourced: Page 26 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/20
I do not believe that I will buy again. Just too scary for the Old Geezer.
B. Partial Issuer Redemption of BRGPRA:
Quote: Bluerock Residential Growth REIT Inc. 8.25% Cumulative Preferred Series A
Investment Category: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity REIT Cumulative Equity Preferred Stocks; part of Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Ex Dividend: Quarterly on 9/24/20; dividends are cumulative; dividend stopper clause present
Optional Redemption Date: On or after 10/21/20
The issuer for this cumulative equity preferred stock is the apartment REIT Bluerock Residential Growth REIT Inc. (BRG)
The issuer redeemed approximately 25% of the outstanding shares at the $25 par value plus accrued and unpaid dividends. Bluerock Residential Growth REIT Announces Partial Redemption of 8.250% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. (4/4/20 Post)
I own shares in 3 accounts accounts:
Fidelity: 11 shares redeemed-29 Shares remaining
Profit Snapshot: $26.7 (only 10/21/20)
Remaining Shares: 29 Shares/Average Cost $17.79
 |
| Snapshot as of 10/21/20 Close |
Yield at $17.79 = 11.59% ($25 par value x. .0825% coupon =$2.0625 annually per share $17.79 = 11.59%)
Schwab: 13 Shares redeemed/37 remaining
Profit Snapshot = $38.39
Remaining Shares 37 at an average cost per share of $22.05
Yield at $22.05 = 9.35%
Vanguard: 2 Shares redeemed/ 7 remaining
Profit Snapshot (2 shares) = +$23
 |
| Cost Per Share = $13.5 |
Remaining Shares: Average Cost per share of $14.12
 |
| Snapshot as of 10/21/20 Close |
Yield at $14.12 = 14.06%
Last BRGPRA Sell Discussions: Item # 3 Sold Highest Cost BRGPRA lot at $25.25 (8/29/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $30.55)
BRG Realized Gains To Date: $1,151.81
Last BRG Buy Discussion: Item # 2.I Restarted BRG (5/30/20 Post)(average cost = $4.96; yield at 13.1%)
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
