Economy:
Shiller: Recession likely years away due to bullish Trump effect I do not view that positive narrative as consistent with his most recent statements. Nobel winner Robert Shiller: A recession that could discredit Trump looms large - MarketWatch; Nobel-Winning Economist Robert Shiller: Recession Is Coming | Time
Trump says trade deal with China is coming along great - Reuters (Monday, 10/21/19). Sounds like Donald has practically guaranteed a successful outcome.
Things aren’t looking great for China’s economy and it may only be getting worse - MarketWatch
Chinese vice foreign minister says progress made in US trade talks This headline overstates what the vice foreign minister said which was more reserved IMO.
Falling profit margins raise some alarm: 'It can be a precursor to layoffs and a recession'
Trump says trade deal with China is coming along great - Reuters (Monday, 10/21/19). Sounds like Donald has practically guaranteed a successful outcome.
Things aren’t looking great for China’s economy and it may only be getting worse - MarketWatch
Chinese vice foreign minister says progress made in US trade talks This headline overstates what the vice foreign minister said which was more reserved IMO.
Falling profit margins raise some alarm: 'It can be a precursor to layoffs and a recession'
+++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
Goldman warns that stock buybacks are plummeting
Impact of US-China partial trade deal on Chinese yuan (RMB)
Why oil prices are sending stock-market bulls a warning signal about the global economy - MarketWatch
Goldman warns that stock buybacks are plummeting
Impact of US-China partial trade deal on Chinese yuan (RMB)
Why oil prices are sending stock-market bulls a warning signal about the global economy - MarketWatch
Corporate bonds may be paying too little spread to offset fourth-quarter selloff risks - MarketWatch
Why the stock market has a ‘great distance to rise’ in the coming years - MarketWatch
P&G stock jumps after earnings and sales beat expectations - MarketWatch
The consensus E.P.S. estimates for PG, which is probably non-GAAP numbers, are $4.85 this year and $5.16 next year or about a 6.39% increase Y-O-Y. PG | Procter & Gamble Co. Analyst Estimates At a $124 per share price, the P/E using next year's estimate would be 24.
Dow components McDonald’s and Travelers disappoint on earnings, offsetting P&G and United Tech’s gains - MarketWatch
The initial third quarter earnings reports were mostly positive but the trend has turned to a mix with several important companies reporting negative results.
After the close yesterday, Texas Instruments offered soft forward guidance. Texas Instruments Tumbles Following Soft Guidance: 5 Key Takeaways - TheStreet
Caterpillar missed expectations in its earnings release this morning as did Boeing. Caterpillar earnings: $2.66 a share, vs $2.88 EPS expected; Boeing profit slumps 53% as MAX grounding takes heavy toll - Reuters
++++++
P&G stock jumps after earnings and sales beat expectations - MarketWatch
The consensus E.P.S. estimates for PG, which is probably non-GAAP numbers, are $4.85 this year and $5.16 next year or about a 6.39% increase Y-O-Y. PG | Procter & Gamble Co. Analyst Estimates At a $124 per share price, the P/E using next year's estimate would be 24.
Dow components McDonald’s and Travelers disappoint on earnings, offsetting P&G and United Tech’s gains - MarketWatch
The initial third quarter earnings reports were mostly positive but the trend has turned to a mix with several important companies reporting negative results.
After the close yesterday, Texas Instruments offered soft forward guidance. Texas Instruments Tumbles Following Soft Guidance: 5 Key Takeaways - TheStreet
Caterpillar missed expectations in its earnings release this morning as did Boeing. Caterpillar earnings: $2.66 a share, vs $2.88 EPS expected; Boeing profit slumps 53% as MAX grounding takes heavy toll - Reuters
++++++
Trump:
Ukraine/Impeachment Inquiry:
U.S. envoy says he was told release of Ukraine aid was contingent on public declaration to investigate Bidens, 2016 election
Read Bill Taylor's Opening Statement for Impeachment Inquiry | Time
"During that phone call, Ambassador Sondland told me that President Trump had told him that he wants President Zelenskyy to state publicly that Ukraine will investigate Burisma and alleged Ukrainian interference in the 2016 U.S. election. Ambassador Sondland also told me that he now recognized that he had made a mistake by earlier telling the Ukrainian officials to whom he spoke that a White House meeting with President Zelenskyy was dependent on a public announcement of investigations — in fact, Ambassador Sondland said, “everything” was dependent on such an announcement, including security assistance. He said that President Trump wanted President Zelenskyy “in a public box” by making a public statement about ordering such investigations."
Taylor sent Pompeo a cable setting out the rogue Ukraine policy at John Bolton's suggestion, but did not hear back. What Bill Taylor’s Testimony Adds to the Ukraine Story - Lawfare
It is clear now why Barr tried to bury the whistleblower's complaint as part of the ongoing cover up and obstruction of justice. CIA's top lawyer made 'criminal referral' on complaint about Trump Ukraine call; Attorney General William Barr Implicated in Whistleblower Complaint About Trump | Time
Read: Highlights Of William Taylor's Statement To Congress On Ukraine: NPR
Top U.S. envoy ties Trump directly to Ukraine quid pro quo - POLITICO
William Taylor, who graduated from West Point, fought in Vietnam, and served his country for 50 years, was called a radical unelected bureaucrat by the WH Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham. White House Attacks ‘Radical Unelected Bureaucrats’ After Explosive Taylor Testimony
Is a Ukrainian Oligarch Helping Trump Smear Joe Biden?
Ron Chernow wrote an opinion piece that is worth a read: Alexander Hamilton pushed for impeachment powers. Donald Trump is what he had in mind. - The Washington Post
Chernow relies particularly on the Federalist Paper #1 written by Alexander Hamilton. Federalist Nos. 1-10 - The Federalist Papers: Primary Documents in American History - Research Guides at Library of Congress
Trump perceived Ukraine as an adversary, not an ally, witnesses say - MarketWatch Trump's opinion of Ukraine was influenced by Putin and Putin's ally Viktor Orban. Putin and Hungary’s Orban helped sour Trump on Ukraine
Russia can now influence the development of U.S. foreign policy.
It’s every man for himself right now on Trump and Ukraine
Trump Rages Over Republican Defections as Democrats Press on Impeachment
Senator McConnell contradicts Trump: We've never spoken about Zelensky call Trump claimed McConnell had told that the Zelensky call was the "most innocent that I've ever read".
++
Trump-The "Phony" Emoluments Clause:
In TrumpWorld, the emoluments clause in the Constitution is phony. The emoluments clause, explained for Donald Trump - Vox; Trump Belittles Article I, Section 9, Paragraph 8 Of Constitution: ‘Phony Emoluments Clause’ | MSNBC - YouTube; Donald Trump mocks Constitution's emoluments clause as 'phony': USA Today
It looks like the courts will be deciding whether Donald has violated that constitutional prohibition, assuming that the litigation is not dismissed on technical grounds (e.g. standing to bring the lawsuit), One Day After Trump Called Emoluments Clause 'Phony,' Court Sets Hearing | Law & Crime
Donald quickly reversed his decision to award the G-7 host agreement to himself.
He blamed the "Crazed and Irrational Hostility" of the "Media and the Democrats.
When was the prior time Donald reversed a decision because he was criticized by democrats and the media?
There had to be other reasons that caused him to backtrack quickly, including some negative feedback from other G-7 participants and a 100% certain outcome when the House voted on a bill titled "Trump's Heist Undermines the G-7 (THUG) Act". Democrats attempt to block Trump’s struggling golf resort from hosting G7 summit
We will never know what the Duck actually meant when he claimed, without providing any details, that he would only charge his "cost" (e.g. include the value of free advertising for the resort, interest on the huge debt load, non-cash-depreciation expense, etc.?)
Mulvaney wrong that Donald Trump won't profit from choosing Trump resort to host G-7 | PolitiFact (rated as false)
Eric Trump told Laura Ingraham that Donald "got out of all international businesses" after he became President, a claim that was rated "Pants on Fire" by Politfact. Eric Trump’s false claim that the Trump family ‘got out of all international business’ | PolitiFact Ms. Ingraham is a Trump propagandist and Eric was consequently unconcerned about a challenge from her.
++
Flurry of Trump Falsehoods - FactCheck.org
Video: Trump's False Subpoena Claim - FactCheck.org
Fact-checking Trump on ‘phony’ emoluments, Adam Schiff and Miami airport | PolitiFact
Ukraine/Impeachment Inquiry:
U.S. envoy says he was told release of Ukraine aid was contingent on public declaration to investigate Bidens, 2016 election
Read Bill Taylor's Opening Statement for Impeachment Inquiry | Time
"During that phone call, Ambassador Sondland told me that President Trump had told him that he wants President Zelenskyy to state publicly that Ukraine will investigate Burisma and alleged Ukrainian interference in the 2016 U.S. election. Ambassador Sondland also told me that he now recognized that he had made a mistake by earlier telling the Ukrainian officials to whom he spoke that a White House meeting with President Zelenskyy was dependent on a public announcement of investigations — in fact, Ambassador Sondland said, “everything” was dependent on such an announcement, including security assistance. He said that President Trump wanted President Zelenskyy “in a public box” by making a public statement about ordering such investigations."
Taylor sent Pompeo a cable setting out the rogue Ukraine policy at John Bolton's suggestion, but did not hear back. What Bill Taylor’s Testimony Adds to the Ukraine Story - Lawfare
It is clear now why Barr tried to bury the whistleblower's complaint as part of the ongoing cover up and obstruction of justice. CIA's top lawyer made 'criminal referral' on complaint about Trump Ukraine call; Attorney General William Barr Implicated in Whistleblower Complaint About Trump | Time
Read: Highlights Of William Taylor's Statement To Congress On Ukraine: NPR
Top U.S. envoy ties Trump directly to Ukraine quid pro quo - POLITICO
William Taylor, who graduated from West Point, fought in Vietnam, and served his country for 50 years, was called a radical unelected bureaucrat by the WH Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham. White House Attacks ‘Radical Unelected Bureaucrats’ After Explosive Taylor Testimony
Is a Ukrainian Oligarch Helping Trump Smear Joe Biden?
Ron Chernow wrote an opinion piece that is worth a read: Alexander Hamilton pushed for impeachment powers. Donald Trump is what he had in mind. - The Washington Post
Chernow relies particularly on the Federalist Paper #1 written by Alexander Hamilton. Federalist Nos. 1-10 - The Federalist Papers: Primary Documents in American History - Research Guides at Library of Congress
Trump perceived Ukraine as an adversary, not an ally, witnesses say - MarketWatch Trump's opinion of Ukraine was influenced by Putin and Putin's ally Viktor Orban. Putin and Hungary’s Orban helped sour Trump on Ukraine
Russia can now influence the development of U.S. foreign policy.
It’s every man for himself right now on Trump and Ukraine
Trump Rages Over Republican Defections as Democrats Press on Impeachment
Senator McConnell contradicts Trump: We've never spoken about Zelensky call Trump claimed McConnell had told that the Zelensky call was the "most innocent that I've ever read".
++
Trump-The "Phony" Emoluments Clause:
In TrumpWorld, the emoluments clause in the Constitution is phony. The emoluments clause, explained for Donald Trump - Vox; Trump Belittles Article I, Section 9, Paragraph 8 Of Constitution: ‘Phony Emoluments Clause’ | MSNBC - YouTube; Donald Trump mocks Constitution's emoluments clause as 'phony': USA Today
It looks like the courts will be deciding whether Donald has violated that constitutional prohibition, assuming that the litigation is not dismissed on technical grounds (e.g. standing to bring the lawsuit), One Day After Trump Called Emoluments Clause 'Phony,' Court Sets Hearing | Law & Crime
Donald quickly reversed his decision to award the G-7 host agreement to himself.
He blamed the "Crazed and Irrational Hostility" of the "Media and the Democrats.
When was the prior time Donald reversed a decision because he was criticized by democrats and the media?
There had to be other reasons that caused him to backtrack quickly, including some negative feedback from other G-7 participants and a 100% certain outcome when the House voted on a bill titled "Trump's Heist Undermines the G-7 (THUG) Act". Democrats attempt to block Trump’s struggling golf resort from hosting G7 summit
We will never know what the Duck actually meant when he claimed, without providing any details, that he would only charge his "cost" (e.g. include the value of free advertising for the resort, interest on the huge debt load, non-cash-depreciation expense, etc.?)
Mulvaney wrong that Donald Trump won't profit from choosing Trump resort to host G-7 | PolitiFact (rated as false)
Eric Trump told Laura Ingraham that Donald "got out of all international businesses" after he became President, a claim that was rated "Pants on Fire" by Politfact. Eric Trump’s false claim that the Trump family ‘got out of all international business’ | PolitiFact Ms. Ingraham is a Trump propagandist and Eric was consequently unconcerned about a challenge from her.
++
Flurry of Trump Falsehoods - FactCheck.org
Video: Trump's False Subpoena Claim - FactCheck.org
Fact-checking Trump on ‘phony’ emoluments, Adam Schiff and Miami airport | PolitiFact
Newly released Trump tax documents show major inconsistencies
Pentagon draws up plans for Afghanistan withdrawal just in case Trump blindsides military
For Trump the Dealmaker, Troop Pullouts Without Much in Return - The New York Times
Carson defends HUD for knowingly stalling Puerto Rico hurricane relief funds
++
Pentagon draws up plans for Afghanistan withdrawal just in case Trump blindsides military
For Trump the Dealmaker, Troop Pullouts Without Much in Return - The New York Times
Carson defends HUD for knowingly stalling Puerto Rico hurricane relief funds
++
Trump and Mattis:
Donald is of course omnipotent and the smartest and most knowledgeable human being who has ever lived. His study of military history is surpassed by no one.
After much study and deep reflection, Donald concluded that General Mattis was “the world’s most overrated general”.
Mattis, a retired 4 star Marine General, who has considerable combat experience, was nonetheless selected by Donald to be his Defense Secretary.
Mattis noted in a recent speech that he got his "spurs" in combat rather than in a doctor's letter, an obvious reference to Donald's "bone spurs" that allowed him to sit out the Vietnam as a civilian enjoying the NYC party scene while no doubt studying judiciously military history and tactics.
Donald succeeded in his war time service by avoiding venereal disease in the NYC party scene. Donald Trump Calls Avoiding STDs His 'Personal Vietnam' | PEOPLE.com
Mattis mocks Trump's bone spurs during Al Smith dinner speech - YouTube (an excellent speech)
Mattis paraphrased part of Lincoln's Lyceum address in his speech and aimed it directly at Demagogue Don: "Lincoln went on, it was not the foreign aggressor we must fear; it was corrosion from within. The rot, the viciousness, the lassitude, the ignorance. Anarchy is one potential consequence of all this. Another is the rise of an ambitious leader unfettered by conscience or precedent or decency who would make themselves supreme." In other words, Lincoln warned that the danger to the nation's democracy was not from foreign aggressors but from within.
What actually soured the Duck on Mattis is that he wanted to keep some U.S. forces in Northern Syria to prevent the reemergence of ISIS, a clear national security threat.
Donald is not concerned about those terrorists since they are 7,000 miles away, just like the ones who planned and executed 9/11 from places as far away or farther. Trump told Republicans he didn’t care ‘about terrorists 7,000 miles away’
Donald's success as a politician is dependent on ignorance and what I would call a waning interest in the conservative values embodied in the Constitution.
+++
Margaret Chase Smith Statement of Conscience:
This statement was issued by Senator Chase (R-Maine) in response to the demagoguery of another republican politician Joseph McCarthy.
SmithDeclaration.pdf
++
Mr. C.M.A. Sondland:
Cover My Ass = C.Y.A.
Sondland, who was appointed the U.S. Ambassador to the EU after making huge donations to the republicans, admits that he was directed by Donald to work with Giuliani but insists that he knew nothing about the scheme to coerce the Ukraine to manufacture dirt on Joe Biden.
He was on a desert island, hiding incognito, when Giuliani was constantly in the news over several months claiming that Joe Biden was responsible for firing a Ukraine prosecutor who was allegedly investigating Burisma, a Ukrainian gas company that hired Biden's son as a director.
Sondland wants us to believe that he was not even curious about why Trump would want Ukraine to investigate Burisma, a gas company operating in that country.
Sondland was not curious enough to do a two word google search "Giuliani Ukraine" that would have instantly informed him why he was working with Trump's personal lawyer to cause the Ukraine to investigate Burisma.
Like many other Trump appointees, Sondland saw the need for a major taxpayer funded renovations after assuming his post. Gordon Sondland spent $1 million in taxpayer funds on home renovations-Business Insider
Trump Cabinet officials under fire for spending taxpayer money - Business Insider
++
Donald and the Kurds:
ISIS Reaps Gains of U.S. Pullout From Syria
ISIS eyes breakout opportunity as Turkish forces batter Kurds
Fact-checking Trump on the Kurds: Yes, they are more unsafe now. No, they aren’t more threatening than ISIS. - The Washington Post Donald claimed that the Kurds, who had been fighting alongside U.S. special forces against ISIS, were “probably worse at terror and more of a terrorist threat than ISIS." That is of course made up and nothing more than an Erdogan talking point that the Duck is parroting for reasons that may be disclosed more fully later.
ISIS Reaps Gains of U.S. Pullout From Syria - The New York Times
The U.S. had a small force in Northern Syria (approximately 1000) that leveraged the Kurds fight against ISIS. Trump Surrenders Northern Syria to Turkish Jihadists
Donald Trump's longtime business connections in Turkey back in the spotlight; Trump business and financial interests in Turkey: hotel, Trump Towers - Business Insider
Was Trump's decision to abandon the Kurds made to promote his own financial interests in Turkey?
His decision made no sense on national security grounds.
Donald is of course omnipotent and the smartest and most knowledgeable human being who has ever lived. His study of military history is surpassed by no one.
After much study and deep reflection, Donald concluded that General Mattis was “the world’s most overrated general”.
Mattis, a retired 4 star Marine General, who has considerable combat experience, was nonetheless selected by Donald to be his Defense Secretary.
Mattis noted in a recent speech that he got his "spurs" in combat rather than in a doctor's letter, an obvious reference to Donald's "bone spurs" that allowed him to sit out the Vietnam as a civilian enjoying the NYC party scene while no doubt studying judiciously military history and tactics.
Donald succeeded in his war time service by avoiding venereal disease in the NYC party scene. Donald Trump Calls Avoiding STDs His 'Personal Vietnam' | PEOPLE.com
Mattis mocks Trump's bone spurs during Al Smith dinner speech - YouTube (an excellent speech)
Mattis paraphrased part of Lincoln's Lyceum address in his speech and aimed it directly at Demagogue Don: "Lincoln went on, it was not the foreign aggressor we must fear; it was corrosion from within. The rot, the viciousness, the lassitude, the ignorance. Anarchy is one potential consequence of all this. Another is the rise of an ambitious leader unfettered by conscience or precedent or decency who would make themselves supreme." In other words, Lincoln warned that the danger to the nation's democracy was not from foreign aggressors but from within.
What actually soured the Duck on Mattis is that he wanted to keep some U.S. forces in Northern Syria to prevent the reemergence of ISIS, a clear national security threat.
Donald is not concerned about those terrorists since they are 7,000 miles away, just like the ones who planned and executed 9/11 from places as far away or farther. Trump told Republicans he didn’t care ‘about terrorists 7,000 miles away’
Donald's success as a politician is dependent on ignorance and what I would call a waning interest in the conservative values embodied in the Constitution.
+++
Margaret Chase Smith Statement of Conscience:
This statement was issued by Senator Chase (R-Maine) in response to the demagoguery of another republican politician Joseph McCarthy.
SmithDeclaration.pdf
++
Mr. C.M.A. Sondland:
Cover My Ass = C.Y.A.
Sondland, who was appointed the U.S. Ambassador to the EU after making huge donations to the republicans, admits that he was directed by Donald to work with Giuliani but insists that he knew nothing about the scheme to coerce the Ukraine to manufacture dirt on Joe Biden.
He was on a desert island, hiding incognito, when Giuliani was constantly in the news over several months claiming that Joe Biden was responsible for firing a Ukraine prosecutor who was allegedly investigating Burisma, a Ukrainian gas company that hired Biden's son as a director.
Sondland wants us to believe that he was not even curious about why Trump would want Ukraine to investigate Burisma, a gas company operating in that country.
Sondland was not curious enough to do a two word google search "Giuliani Ukraine" that would have instantly informed him why he was working with Trump's personal lawyer to cause the Ukraine to investigate Burisma.
Like many other Trump appointees, Sondland saw the need for a major taxpayer funded renovations after assuming his post. Gordon Sondland spent $1 million in taxpayer funds on home renovations-Business Insider
Trump Cabinet officials under fire for spending taxpayer money - Business Insider
++
Donald and the Kurds:
ISIS Reaps Gains of U.S. Pullout From Syria
ISIS eyes breakout opportunity as Turkish forces batter Kurds
Fact-checking Trump on the Kurds: Yes, they are more unsafe now. No, they aren’t more threatening than ISIS. - The Washington Post Donald claimed that the Kurds, who had been fighting alongside U.S. special forces against ISIS, were “probably worse at terror and more of a terrorist threat than ISIS." That is of course made up and nothing more than an Erdogan talking point that the Duck is parroting for reasons that may be disclosed more fully later.
ISIS Reaps Gains of U.S. Pullout From Syria - The New York Times
The U.S. had a small force in Northern Syria (approximately 1000) that leveraged the Kurds fight against ISIS. Trump Surrenders Northern Syria to Turkish Jihadists
Donald Trump's longtime business connections in Turkey back in the spotlight; Trump business and financial interests in Turkey: hotel, Trump Towers - Business Insider
Was Trump's decision to abandon the Kurds made to promote his own financial interests in Turkey?
His decision made no sense on national security grounds.
++++++++
1. Small Ball-Commission Free ETFs:
A. Bought 30 PTLC at $31.34-Roth IRA:
Quote: PTLC | Pacer Trendpilot 750 ETF Overview | MarketWatch
Closing Price Yesterday: PTLC $31.31 -$0.10 -0.32%
This ETF was discussed in this article. This ETF can protect you from S&P 500 volatility and enhance your long-term returns - MarketWatch
Sponsor's Website: PTLC | Pacer ETFs
Pacer Trendpilot™ US Large Cap ETF (PTLC) Morningstar: Rated 3 stars
Expense Ratio: .6%
The Fund will move assets between the S & P 500 and the three month treasury bills based on the S & P 500 total return index 200 day SMA lines as indicated below.
Fact Sheet.pdf
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
A low cost S & P 500 ETF like SPY will beat PTLC when it is fully invested in the S & P 500.
Compared to SPY, the main advantages of PFLC IMO is its built in auto pilot which will limit downside risk while catching the longer duration bull moves.
The fund goes into autopilot protection mode when the yellow and red lights require an allocation shift from stocks to treasury bills and then back again to 100% in stocks when the S & P Total Return Index goes back above its 200 day SMA line for 5 consecutive days.
As I recall, the S & P 500 index moved above its 200 day SMA in June 2009 using a 1 year YF chart. (see next to last paragraph: Vix Asset Allocation Model - South Gent | Seeking Alpha)
Green Line: S & P Index SMA line 6/30/08 to 6/30/09
Note that the index was already below the 200 day SMA at the start of this period. Using a 1 year chart starting in June 2007, the break below the 200 SMA line would have occurred in mid June 2008.
If this fund was in existence then, it would have been missed about the first 2-3 months of the long term bull market that started in early March 2009. The timing mechanism would have prevented most of the loss starting with Lehman's collapse in September 2008.
One problem with this timing mechanism is that there can be brief periods where the yellow or red light signals require the major shift out of stocks, but the duration of the move below the 200 SMA line proves to be short term and shallow. That can cause some lag in the overall performance and adverse tax events.
B. Added 10 GYLD at $15.75-Roth IRA:
Quote: Arrow Dow Jones Global Yield ETF Overview
Closing Price Yesterday: GYLD $15.91 +$0.07 +0.47%
Weightings:
Some Top Holdings:
Sponsor's Website: Arrow Funds Dow Jones Global Yield ETF (GYLD) - World Allocation
This is ETF is deservedly rated 1 star by Morningstar based on past performance. Part of the historical underperformance since 2013 was due to a significant allocation to energy infrastructure stocks and to the strength of the USD against emerging market currencies.
Last Discussed: Item #3.B. Bought 50 GYLD at $17.62 (9/5/18 Post)
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, until the likely reinvestment price exceeds my total average cost per share
Last Ex Dividend: 10/16/19
Current Position: 85+ shares
Maximum Position: 100 shares + shares purchased with dividends (20 shares left before reaching 100 share limit)
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
Average Total Cost Per Share = $17.14
Item # 3 Eliminated GYLD-Sold 201 Shares (1/11/2017 Post)(profit snapshots = $108)
This post contains links to prior discussions:
Total GYLD Trading Gains = $452.11
With this ETF, I am dumpster diving for a security that (1) has a decent yield and (2) has not participated in the bull market move since 2012. The last foray into GYLD has produced less than the optimal results.
C. Added 1 VDE at $74.85-In A Roth IRA Account:
A. Bought 30 PTLC at $31.34-Roth IRA:
Quote: PTLC | Pacer Trendpilot 750 ETF Overview | MarketWatch
Closing Price Yesterday: PTLC $31.31 -$0.10 -0.32%
This ETF was discussed in this article. This ETF can protect you from S&P 500 volatility and enhance your long-term returns - MarketWatch
Sponsor's Website: PTLC | Pacer ETFs
Pacer Trendpilot™ US Large Cap ETF (PTLC) Morningstar: Rated 3 stars
Expense Ratio: .6%
The Fund will move assets between the S & P 500 and the three month treasury bills based on the S & P 500 total return index 200 day SMA lines as indicated below.
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
A low cost S & P 500 ETF like SPY will beat PTLC when it is fully invested in the S & P 500.
Compared to SPY, the main advantages of PFLC IMO is its built in auto pilot which will limit downside risk while catching the longer duration bull moves.
The fund goes into autopilot protection mode when the yellow and red lights require an allocation shift from stocks to treasury bills and then back again to 100% in stocks when the S & P Total Return Index goes back above its 200 day SMA line for 5 consecutive days.
As I recall, the S & P 500 index moved above its 200 day SMA in June 2009 using a 1 year YF chart. (see next to last paragraph: Vix Asset Allocation Model - South Gent | Seeking Alpha)
Green Line: S & P Index SMA line 6/30/08 to 6/30/09
Note that the index was already below the 200 day SMA at the start of this period. Using a 1 year chart starting in June 2007, the break below the 200 SMA line would have occurred in mid June 2008.
If this fund was in existence then, it would have been missed about the first 2-3 months of the long term bull market that started in early March 2009. The timing mechanism would have prevented most of the loss starting with Lehman's collapse in September 2008.
One problem with this timing mechanism is that there can be brief periods where the yellow or red light signals require the major shift out of stocks, but the duration of the move below the 200 SMA line proves to be short term and shallow. That can cause some lag in the overall performance and adverse tax events.
B. Added 10 GYLD at $15.75-Roth IRA:
Quote: Arrow Dow Jones Global Yield ETF Overview
Closing Price Yesterday: GYLD $15.91 +$0.07 +0.47%
Weightings:
Some Top Holdings:
Sponsor's Website: Arrow Funds Dow Jones Global Yield ETF (GYLD) - World Allocation
This is ETF is deservedly rated 1 star by Morningstar based on past performance. Part of the historical underperformance since 2013 was due to a significant allocation to energy infrastructure stocks and to the strength of the USD against emerging market currencies.
Last Discussed: Item #3.B. Bought 50 GYLD at $17.62 (9/5/18 Post)
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes, until the likely reinvestment price exceeds my total average cost per share
Last Ex Dividend: 10/16/19
Current Position: 85+ shares
Maximum Position: 100 shares + shares purchased with dividends (20 shares left before reaching 100 share limit)
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
Average Total Cost Per Share = $17.14
Prior Trade Sell Discussions:
Item # 3 Eliminated GYLD-Sold 201 Shares (1/11/2017 Post)(profit snapshots = $108)
This post contains links to prior discussions:
Total GYLD Trading Gains = $452.11
With this ETF, I am dumpster diving for a security that (1) has a decent yield and (2) has not participated in the bull market move since 2012. The last foray into GYLD has produced less than the optimal results.
C. Added 1 VDE at $74.85-In A Roth IRA Account:
Quote: VDE | Vanguard Energy ETF Overview | MarketWatch
Closing Price Yesterday: VDE $77.19 +$0.98 +1.29%
Sponsor's Website: VDE - Vanguard Energy ETF | Vanguard
Expense Ratio: .1%
Last Discussed: Item # 6.A.
Current Position: 6 Shares
Maximum Position: 30 shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
Energy stocks are in a long term bear market that started in 2014. There is currently no indication IMO that the dominant bear trend will end anytime soon.
That bear trend is reflected in the dismal annual average total return of -5.98% over the past 5 years through Friday, 10/18. Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) Performance as of 10/18/19 | Morningstar Nonetheless, Morningstar currently assigns VDE a 5 star rating, which indicates that it is among the better fund performers in this sector.
Closing Price Yesterday: VDE $77.19 +$0.98 +1.29%
Sponsor's Website: VDE - Vanguard Energy ETF | Vanguard
Expense Ratio: .1%
Last Discussed: Item # 6.A.
Current Position: 6 Shares
Maximum Position: 30 shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule
Energy stocks are in a long term bear market that started in 2014. There is currently no indication IMO that the dominant bear trend will end anytime soon.
That bear trend is reflected in the dismal annual average total return of -5.98% over the past 5 years through Friday, 10/18. Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) Performance as of 10/18/19 | Morningstar Nonetheless, Morningstar currently assigns VDE a 5 star rating, which indicates that it is among the better fund performers in this sector.
2. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 3 Republic Bank & Trust 1.9% CDs Maturing on 4/14/20:
Holding Company: Republic Bancorp Inc. (Kentucky) Cl A (RBCAA)
B. Bought 3 Bangor Savings Bank 1.95% CDs Maturing on 1/28/20:
C. Bought 3 People's United 1.9% CDs Maturing on 1/10/19:
Holding Company: People's United Financial Inc. (PBCT)
PBCT Analyst Estimates
I will trade the common stock, but do not currently have a position given my overall negative opinion about regional bank stocks.
Last Round-Trip: Item # 3.A. Sold 101+ PBCT at $17.57 (5/22/19 Post)(profit snapshot +$182.26)- Item # 3.A. Bought at $14.65(11/28/18 Post); Regional Bank Basket Strategy
D. Bought 2 Ameris BK 1.9% CD Maturing on 2/11/20:
Holding Company Ameris Bancorp (ABCB)
Ameris Bancorp Analyst Estimates
E. Bought 2 Bank of China 1.95% CDs Maturing on 1/17/20:
3. Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy:
The following discussion illustrates what I call a swap trade which takes some money off the table and increases my dividend yield. I sold 50 share of one REIT, VICI, that just went ex dividend and bought 50 shares of another REIT, SKT, that will go ex dividend later this month.
I also bought SKT at a lower price than my previous purchase in the IB account without missing a dividend payment.
This swap is just another example of small ball trading. In this kind of swap trade, I am primarily engaged in dividend harvesting.
If I am able to profitably sell SKT after the ex dividend date, and to buy back VICI before its next dividend date at a power lower than my last purchase, then the swap trade met its primary goal.
A. Bought 50 SKT at $14.44:
Quote: Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. (SKT)
Closing Price Yesterday: SKT $17.54 +$0.59 +3.48%
Website: Tanger Outlet | Corporate Overview
I mentioned this purchase in an October 9, 2019 comment.
SEC Filings
2018 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 11 and ends at page 18)
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/19 (property list starts at page 43)
I recently sold 50 shares in this account at $16.85. Item # 1.A. Sold 50 SKT at $16.85 (9/28/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $38.48)-Item # 1.A. Bought 50 SKT at $16.06 (8/10/19 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.3555 ($1.42 annually)
Tanger Declares Dividend for Third Quarter 2019
Dividend Yield at $14.44 = 9.83%
I have a "small ball buying" program that is ongoing in my Fidelity account where I currently own 30 shares at an average cost per share of $14.73. The lowest price in the chain is $14.29. Item # 1.D. (9/4/19 Post)
5 Year SKT Chart: Widow Maker
The chart indicates that institutions hold SKT in low regard.
5 Year Total Annual Average Return through 10/9: -11.57%
Sourced: DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel
see also Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc (SKT) Trailing Returns | Morningstar
I have nothing to add to recent discussions.
B. Sold 50 VICI at $23.03:
Quote: VICI Properties Inc. (VICI)
Closing Price Yesterday: VICI $23.60 +$0.11 +0.47%
VICI Properties, experiential real estate, gaming & hospitality destinations
2018 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 20)
Profit Snapshot: $40.03
Item # 1.A. Bought 50 VICI at $22.19 (7/31/19 Post)
"VICI Properties’ national, geographically diverse portfolio consists of 23 gaming facilities comprising over 40 million square feet and features approximately 15,200 hotel rooms and more than 150 restaurants, bars and nightclubs. Its properties are leased to industry leading gaming and hospitality operators, including Caesars Entertainment Corporation and Penn National Gaming, Inc. VICI Properties also owns four championship golf courses and 34 acres of undeveloped land adjacent to the Las Vegas Strip."
Dividend: Quarterly at $.2975 per share ($1.19 annually)
VICI Properties Inc. Increases Regular Quarterly Dividend By 3.5%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/26/19
I will start to consider a repurchase when and if the price falls below $ before the next ex dividend date. The preferable reentry price would be in a $19.5 to $21 range. The price did fall into that range after my 50 share purchase (e.g. $20.57 closing price on 8/15) The foregoing assumes no material adverse news.
VICI Chart
IPO Prospectus 2/2018 (public offering price at $20)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/19):
VICI Properties Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2019 Results
Other Recent News Since Last Discussion:
VICI Properties Inc. Completes Acquisition of JACK Cincinnati Casino and Lease to Hard Rock International (9/20/19)
4. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Bought 50 BAMPRT at C$15.21 (C$1 commission at IB):
Quote: BAM.PRT | Brookfield Asset Management Inc. Pfd. Series 26 Cl A Overview | MarketWatch
Closing Price Yesterday: BAM-PT.TO C$15.08 -C$0.13 -0.85%
Issuer: Brookfield Asset Management Inc. Cl A
Website: Brookfield Asset Management Inc
Brookfield Asset Management Reports Second Quarter 2019 Net Income and FFO
Security: Equity Preferred Stock
Par Value = $25
Coupon: 2.31% spread to the 5-year Canadian government bond
Next Reset: 4/1/22
Dividends: Cumulative and Quarterly
Canada 5 Year Government Bond Overview
Excerpt from Prospectus:
Last Reset and Current Coupon: 4/1/17 at 3.471%
Current Yield at C$15.01 = 5.78% (.03471% x. C$25 par value = C$.86775 C$15.01 = 5.78%)
Last Ex Dividend Date: 9/12/19
The following discussion illustrates what I call a swap trade which takes some money off the table and increases my dividend yield. I sold 50 share of one REIT, VICI, that just went ex dividend and bought 50 shares of another REIT, SKT, that will go ex dividend later this month.
I also bought SKT at a lower price than my previous purchase in the IB account without missing a dividend payment.
This swap is just another example of small ball trading. In this kind of swap trade, I am primarily engaged in dividend harvesting.
If I am able to profitably sell SKT after the ex dividend date, and to buy back VICI before its next dividend date at a power lower than my last purchase, then the swap trade met its primary goal.
A. Bought 50 SKT at $14.44:
Quote: Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. (SKT)
Closing Price Yesterday: SKT $17.54 +$0.59 +3.48%
Website: Tanger Outlet | Corporate Overview
I mentioned this purchase in an October 9, 2019 comment.
SEC Filings
2018 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 11 and ends at page 18)
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/19 (property list starts at page 43)
I recently sold 50 shares in this account at $16.85. Item # 1.A. Sold 50 SKT at $16.85 (9/28/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $38.48)-Item # 1.A. Bought 50 SKT at $16.06 (8/10/19 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.3555 ($1.42 annually)
Tanger Declares Dividend for Third Quarter 2019
Dividend Yield at $14.44 = 9.83%
I have a "small ball buying" program that is ongoing in my Fidelity account where I currently own 30 shares at an average cost per share of $14.73. The lowest price in the chain is $14.29. Item # 1.D. (9/4/19 Post)
5 Year SKT Chart: Widow Maker
The chart indicates that institutions hold SKT in low regard.
5 Year Total Annual Average Return through 10/9: -11.57%
Sourced: DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel
see also Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc (SKT) Trailing Returns | Morningstar
I have nothing to add to recent discussions.
B. Sold 50 VICI at $23.03:
Quote: VICI Properties Inc. (VICI)
Closing Price Yesterday: VICI $23.60 +$0.11 +0.47%
VICI Properties, experiential real estate, gaming & hospitality destinations
2018 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 20)
Profit Snapshot: $40.03
Item # 1.A. Bought 50 VICI at $22.19 (7/31/19 Post)
"VICI Properties’ national, geographically diverse portfolio consists of 23 gaming facilities comprising over 40 million square feet and features approximately 15,200 hotel rooms and more than 150 restaurants, bars and nightclubs. Its properties are leased to industry leading gaming and hospitality operators, including Caesars Entertainment Corporation and Penn National Gaming, Inc. VICI Properties also owns four championship golf courses and 34 acres of undeveloped land adjacent to the Las Vegas Strip."
Dividend: Quarterly at $.2975 per share ($1.19 annually)
VICI Properties Inc. Increases Regular Quarterly Dividend By 3.5%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/26/19
I will start to consider a repurchase when and if the price falls below $ before the next ex dividend date. The preferable reentry price would be in a $19.5 to $21 range. The price did fall into that range after my 50 share purchase (e.g. $20.57 closing price on 8/15) The foregoing assumes no material adverse news.
VICI Chart
IPO Prospectus 2/2018 (public offering price at $20)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/19):
Other Recent News Since Last Discussion:
VICI Properties Inc. Completes Acquisition of JACK Cincinnati Casino and Lease to Hard Rock International (9/20/19)
4. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Bought 50 BAMPRT at C$15.21 (C$1 commission at IB):
Quote: BAM.PRT | Brookfield Asset Management Inc. Pfd. Series 26 Cl A Overview | MarketWatch
Closing Price Yesterday: BAM-PT.TO C$15.08 -C$0.13 -0.85%
Issuer: Brookfield Asset Management Inc. Cl A
Website: Brookfield Asset Management Inc
Brookfield Asset Management Reports Second Quarter 2019 Net Income and FFO
Security: Equity Preferred Stock
Par Value = $25
Coupon: 2.31% spread to the 5-year Canadian government bond
Next Reset: 4/1/22
Dividends: Cumulative and Quarterly
Canada 5 Year Government Bond Overview
Excerpt from Prospectus:
Current Yield at C$15.01 = 5.78% (.03471% x. C$25 par value = C$.86775 C$15.01 = 5.78%)
Last Ex Dividend Date: 9/12/19
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
