Economy:
September Jobs Report: +263K jobs, annual hourly wage growth 5%; .2% decline in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. Employment Situation Summary - 2022 Q03 Results
Discussed at Jobs report September 2022:
Jamie Dimon warns U.S. likely to tip into recession in 6 to 9 months
Stocks could fall 'another easy 20%' and next drop will be 'much more painful than the first', Jamie Dimon says - MarketWatch Another hot inflation number may take us further down that path. The next CPI report is scheduled for release on 10/13.
Cramer: Market rallies will be temporary until the Fed beats inflation Problematic inflation is a major headwind for both stocks and bonds. When the FED was last confronted with significant and ongoing problematic inflation in the 1970s, bonds and stocks remained in a bear market until a consensus was reached in the summer of 1982 that the FED would be successful in ending that problem. The stock market took off in August 1982, which was the start of a long term secular bull market that ended in March 2000. The annual average total return for the S & P 500, adjusted for inflation, starting on 8/1/1982 and ending in March 2000 was +15.546%. S&P 500 Return Calculator, with Dividend Reinvestment For the problematic inflation period, starting on 1/1/1966 through July 1982, the annual average total return for the S & P 500, adjusted for inflation, was -1.813%.
Ray Dalio expects 'negative or poor real returns' in markets for next five years - MarketWatch
Social Security may offer largest cost-of-living adjustment in 40 years The current estimate is for an 8.7% increase, but that may change a bit when the September CPI, the last month in the calculation, is released next Thursday.
++++
10 torture sites in 1 town: Russia sowed pain, fear in Izium | PBS NewsHour Russia routinely tortures Ukrainian civilians. The civilians who survived these barbaric and savage actions claim that the Russian soldiers were frequently drunk, asked incoherent questions, and did not seem interested in the answers. Ukraine reports finding bodies and torture sites after Russian retreat - The Washington Post
Russia has a long history of extremely widespread violent pathologies among its citizens, as George Will observed in his most recent column. Why the West must stop Putin from exporting Russia’s cruel pathologies - The Washington Post.
Kharkiv police say bodies of more than 500 civilians found | CNN
Victim tells of rape and torture by Russian soldiers in occupied Izyum - The Washington Post
Russia is really upset that part of nearly constructed Kerch Strait bridge connecting Russia with Crimea was blown up. Crimea bridge explosion worsens Putin's nightmare in Ukraine | CNN;Surveillance footage captures large explosion on key bridge to Russian-annexed Crimea - YouTube The damage was apparently caused by a truck bomb that went off just as a fuel train was passing on a parallel rail line.
Targeting this supply route to Russian troops that have invaded Ukraine is a legitimate target.
Russia has launched missiles that intentionally targeted Ukrainian civilians and civilian structures on a daily basis since launching its invasion last February, routinely leveling into rubble as an integral part of its terrorist campaign apartment buildings, homes, hospitals, nursing homes, schools and other civilian structures. Those attacks are war crimes and crimes against humanity. The proof is irrefutable.
Russia initially responded to the Kerch Strait bridge explosion by launching missile attacks intentionally directed at high rise apartment buildings and residential homes in Zaporizhzhia, murdering at least 17 civilians. Russian strikes kill 17 in Ukraine following bridge attack; Strikes Kill at Least 17 in Zaporizhzhia After Crimea Bridge Blast-The New York Times (Russia intentionally murdered several civilians in residential areas of that city last Thursday, prior to the Kerch bridge explosion, and then targeted rescue workers with missile attacks who were digging through the rubble to find survivors.)
Russia then responded with even more missile attacks targeting civilians and civilian structures in 10 Ukrainian cities.
Putin's rage against civilians may herald a brutal new phase in the Ukraine war | CNN ("Russian missiles damaged a glass-bottomed footbridge in Kyiv that is a popular tourist site, tore into intersections at rush hour and crashed down near a children’s playground on Monday.")
One missile damaged the German Visa Office in Kiev. Russian strikes hit German diplomatic office in Kyiv - report - The Jerusalem Post
A Distracted Russia Is Losing Its Grip on Its Old Soviet Sphere - The New York Times
How Ukrainians, targeting by drone, attacked Russian artillery in Kherson - The Washington Post
++
Trump lawyer Christina Bobb speaks to federal investigators in Mar-a-Lago case
Over half the GOP candidates running in 2022 are election deniers - The Washington Post While a few of the 299 election deniers are in heavily democrat areas, and are expect to lose, most of them are expected to win. The article quotes historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat, author of Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present, as follows: "The party has now institutionalized this form of lying, this form of rejection of results. So it’s institutionalized illegal activity. These politicians are essentially conspiring to make party dogma the idea that it’s possible to reject certified results."
Ron DeSantis Claims Media Hoped Hurricane Would Hit Tampa 'To Advance Their Agenda' DeSantis has been honing his message to appeal to the 74+M voters who wanted to give Donald a second term.
Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) claimed that the Democrats were to blame for Walker's conduct:
Scott: "The Democrats want to destroy this country, and they will try to destroy anyone who gets in their way. Today it’s Herschel Walker, but tomorrow it’s the American people. . . I’m proud to stand with Herschel Walker and make sure Georgians know that he will always fight to protect them from the forces trying to destroy Georgia values and Georgia’s economy, led by Raphael Warnock." Sens. Rick Scott and Tom Cotton to campaign for Herschel Walker in Georgia
This is what Scott means by "Georgia values":
The woman who claims that GOP senate hopeful Herschel Walker paid for her abortion told the NYT that Walker is also the father of her child and pays child support. She broke up with Walker after he told her to get an abortion for that child. Herschel Walker Asked Ex to Have Second Abortion; She Refused: NYT; Herschel Walker Urged Woman to Have a 2nd Abortion, She Says - The New York Times Walker initially claimed that he had no idea who was making those "allegations".
The woman had to sue Walker for child support. Walker resisted making any payments until ordered to do so by a Georgia court in 2014. Herschel Walker Acknowledges Two More Children He Hadn’t Mentioned - The New York Times
GOP leaders rally behind Walker, republished by MSN.com from GOP leaders rally behind Walker. But in Georgia, Republicans fret -The Washington Post
Walker's son recounted that he and his mother had to move six times in six months to avoid Walker's violence, which included pointing a loaded gun at his former wife and threatening to kill her. 'Do you care about family values?': Walker's son denounces father's campaign - POLITICO
Walker claimed his son was part of a left wing conspiracy, which is the line being peddled by the GOP propaganda apparatchiks at Fox "news". Herschel Walker Suggests to Fox News That His MAGA Son Is Part of ‘the Left’
The son is a MAGA influencer. Herschel Walker’s battle with Christian Walker, his MAGA influencer son, explained.
Georgia Senate 2022: An examination of Herschel Walker’s business record; Herschel Walker Lied About His Business Record: Report – Rolling Stone;
Herschel Walker’s charitable donations become his latest controversy;
Herschel Walker said he worked in law enforcement — he didn’t.
The self-righteous Senator Tom Cotton (R-AK) will also stump for Walker.
++
Trump Accused George H.W. Bush of Keeping Secret Documents in Chinese Restaurant; Fact check: Trump falsely claims George H.W. Bush took millions of documents to a former bowling alley and Chinese restaurant Lying all of the time about almost everything is Donald's most cherished "conservative" value.
NAACP denounces 'flat out racist' remarks by GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) at Trump rally
+++
1. Corporate Bonds:
I currently have $163K in fixed coupon securities that will mature between now and year end.
All of the proceeds will be redirected into treasury bills, short term investment grade corporate bonds and CDs.
Over 1/2 of the proceeds will be redirected into 1 to 3 month treasury bills purchased at auctions. When I receive the proceeds from those purchases, I currently anticipate lengthening the maturities somewhat to include more 1 year bills, 2 and 3 year treasury notes, all bought at auction.
That plan is based on what the FED currently anticipates it will do with the FF rate before year end.
A. Bought 2 Timken 3.875% SU Maturing on 9/1/24 at a Total Cost of 99.44.
%203.875%25%209:1:24%20.png) |
| IB Account |
Purchased 8/7/22.
Issuer: Timken Co. (TKR)
TKR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.16%
Current Yield at TC: 3.8968%
B. Bought 2 Kite Realty L.P. 4% SU Maturing on 3/15/25 at a Total Cost of 98.446:
%203:15:25.png)
Purchased 8/10/22.
Issuer: Originally issued by Retail Properties of America, acquired by Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG) in October 2021. Kite Realty Group Announces Closing of $7.5 Billion Merger with Retail Properties of America
KRG Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/22
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/22 (Debt is discussed starting at page 21. This bond is listed at page 22)
Mortgage debt is at $311+M
Unsecured Senior Debt = $2.64+B
Total Long Term Debt after amortization adjustments: $3.001+B.
Assets after depreciation-Balance Sheet: $6.617+B. This is a cost minus depreciation number rather than a FMV one.
When buying senior unsecured debt, the percentage of mortgage debt to the total is relevant in assessing a potential recovery in a bankruptcy. The currently low percentage of KRG mortgage debt to total debt provides significant cushion for the SU debt owners.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB-
YTM at Total Cost = 4.642%
Current Yield at TC = 4.06%
C. Bought 2 First Horizon 4% SU Maturing on 5/26/25 at a Total Cost of 99.434:
%205:26:25%204%25.png) |
| IB Account |
Purchased 8/10/22.
Issuer: First Horizon Corp. (FHN)
FHN is in the process of being acquired by Toronto-Dominion (TD), which requires regulatory approval in the U.S.
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings: Baa3
YTM at Total Cost: 4.215%
Current Yield at TC = 4.02%
D. Bought 2 One Gas 3.61% SU Maturing on 2/1/24 at a Total Cost of 99.684:
%203.61%25%202:1:24%20.png)
Purchased 8/15/22.
Issuer: ONE Gas Inc. (OGS)
OGS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/22
Last Bond Offering (8/22): Prospectus for 4.25% SU Maturing in 2032
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings: A3/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost = 3.834%
Current Yield at TC = 3.6214%
E. Bought 2 Omega Healthcare 4.5% SU Maturing on 1/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.606:
%204.5%25%201:15:25%20.png)
YTM at Total Cost: 4.674%
Current Yield at TC: 4.5178%
I recently discussed a pare in my common stock position Item # 3.J. Pared OHI in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 6 at $33.11 (8/16/22 Post)
F. Bought 2 AON 4% SU Maturing on 11/27/23 at a Total Cost of 99.385:
%2011:27:23.png)
Bought 9/29/22. Discussed out of time order.
Issuer: Aon PLC (AON)
AON Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings: Baa2/A-
YTM at Total Cost = 4.551%
Current Yield at TC = 4.0248%
G. Bought 2 Public Service Electric & GAS 3.25% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 9/1/2023 at a Total Cost of 98.93:
Purchased 9/29/22. Discussed out of time order.
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. (PEG)
Security: First Mortgage Bond
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked, incorrectly called a SU bond issued by the parent Public Service Enterprise Group in one place and a secured bond in another)
Prospectus (short form), refers to more detailed Prospectus
Credit Ratings: A1/A (Finra lists the correct credit ratings for senior secured debt of Public Service Electric and Gas. The SU debt of its parent is rated Baa2/BBB.)
YTM at Total Cost = 4.458%
Current Yield at TC = 3.2852%
H. Bought 2 Consumers Energy 3.15% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 8/31/24 at a Total Cost of 96.991:
%208:31:24%203.125%25%20.png)
Purchased 9/30/22. Discussed out of time order.
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of CMS Energy Corp. (CMS)
CMS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Service Territory in Michigan: Page 16, 2021 Annual Report
Security: First Mortgage
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings: A1/A
YTM at Total Cost = 4.795%
Current Yield at TC = 3.2477%
I. Bought 1 Bank of Nova Scotia 4.65% SU Bond Maturing on 9/30/24 at Par Value-Fidelity Corporate Notes Program:
%20.png)
Purchased 9/28/22. Discussed out of time order.
Interest Paid Quarterly
Credit Ratings: A2/A-
YTM and Current Yield at 4.65%
2. Treasuries-Secondary Market Purchases:
Short term rates spiked after these purchases based in part on the FED's new guidance on FF rate increases in 2022 and 2023. The Fed - September 21, 2022: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version
A. Bought 1 Treasury 2.75% Coupon Maturing on 2/15/24 at 99.332:
%202.75%25%202:15:24.png){kind=small}
Purchased 8/8/22.
YTM at Total Cost = 3.202%
Current Yield at TC = 2.7685%
I now own 2 bonds.
B. Bought 1 Treasury 2.25% Coupon Maturing on 12/31/23 at 98.7016:
%202.25%25%2012:31:23.png){kind=small}
Purchased 8/16/22
YTM at Total Cost = 3.228%
Current Yield at TC = 2.2796%
I now own 3 bonds.
C. Bought 1 Treasury 2.25% Coupon Maturing on 4/30/24 at 98.3877:
%20.png){kind=small}
YTM at Total Cost = 3.231%
Current Yield at TC = 2.2869%
I now own 3 bonds.
D. Bought 1 Treasury 2.5% Coupon Maturing on 1/31/25 at 98.2943:
%20%202.5%25%20.png){kind=small}
Purchased 8/16/22
YTM at Total Cost = 3.225%
Current Yield at TC = 2.5434%
I now own 6 bonds including 1 in a RI account.
E. Bought 1 Treasury 2.25% Coupon Maturing on 3/31/24 at 98.3856:
%203:31:24%202.25%25%20%20.png){kind=small}
Current yield at TC = 2.2869%
I now own 2 bonds.
3. Treasuries-Auction Purchases: $27,000 in principal amount (of which $20K went into 1 and 2 month bill purchases)
The FED is currently expected to raise the FF rate another 125 basis points by year end. I am responding to that expectation by channeling most proceeds from maturing fixed income securities into 1 and 2 month treasury bills bought at auction.
A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at 10/4/22 Auction:
%2010:5:23%20.png){kind=small}
%2010:5:23%20.png){kind=small}
1 year T Bill.
Matures on 10/5/23
Investment Rate (coupon equivalent): 4.134%
B. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at 10/3/22 Auction:
%204:6:23%20.png){kind=small}
Difference between $2,000 and price paid is the interest.
182 Day T Bills.
Mature on 4/16/23.
Investment Rate = 3.981%
C. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at 10/6/22 Auction:
%2012:6:22.png){kind=small}
56 Day Bill
Matures on 12/6/22
Investment rate: 3.291%
D. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at 10/6/22 Auction:
%2011:8:22%20.png){kind=small}
28 Day Bill
Matures on 11/8/22
Investment rate: 2.967%
I owned 2 Valley National 1.8% CDs that matured on 9/30/22 in both my Fidelity and Schwab taxable accounts.
The bond ladder will have a constant flow of maturing securities.
For as long as interest rates continue to trend up, the proceeds can be reinvested into similar securities at higher coupons.
A. Bought 2 Morgan Stanley Bank 4.2% CDs Maturing on 4/8/24:
.png)
Interest paid semi-annually. FDIC Insured.
B. Bought 2 Citizens Bank and Trust 4.05% CDs Maturing on 9/29/23:
Interest paid monthly. FDIC Insured.
4. Small Ball:
REIT stocks continue to hit new 52 week lows.
Office REITs are suffering the largest percentage declines in the equity REIT sector. I discussed the reasons in a 10/5/22 comment.
Those reasons include more office vacancies directly related to the work from home trend which may result in lower rental income as existing leases expire and tenants need less space. Vacancies would also increase in response to a recession.
I referenced this article. Office REITs Massacred as the Future these Office Markets Were Built for Got Cancelled by Working-from-Home | Wolf Street
Since I have seen this kind of pessimism so many times in the past, I will continue to buy small lots in several Office REITs.
The pessimism is in part based on a 100% certainty that the WFH trend, created by the pandemic, is not a short term phenomenon but a longer term one that will materially impact Office REITs.
ZipRecruiter: Top 10 companies offering remote jobs in 2022
Compared to pre-pandemic levels, there will be a larger percentage of the workforce who will be working entirely at home or in a hybrid setting, splitting time at home and in the office. I would expect that number to peak soon and start to trend down, as the job market softens and employees have less leverage to bargain. Some employers will come to a conclusion that those working from home are less productive and the overall productivity is hurt by a lack of interactions among employees.
The share lot sizes, generally 1 to 5 shares, indicate a recognition of the risks, particularly over the short term as institutional investors head for the exits and few buyers are willing to absorb the herd selling.
Medical Office Building (MOB) REITs have sold off as well, but the WFH trend does not apply to them. I discuss buying a few shares in DOC and GMRE, MOB REITs, below.
A. Restarted DOC - Bought 10 at $14.94; 5 at $13.9 -Schwab Taxable:
History this Account:
Quote: Physicians Realty Trust (DOC)- Primarily A MOB REIT
As of 6/30/22, the consolidated portfolio "consisted of 276 health care properties (which excludes three assets, representing approximately 185,085 leasable square feet, classified as held for sale) located in 32 states with approximately 15,451,325 net leasable square feet, which were approximately 95% leased with a weighted average remaining lease term of approximately 5.9 years. As of June 30, 2022, approximately 90% of the net leasable square footage of our portfolio was either on the campus of a hospital or strategically affiliated with a health system."
MOB = Medical Office Building
CAD = Cash Available for Distribution
FAD: Funds Available for Distribution (another name for CAD)
Management: Internal
Physicians Realty Trust-Health Care REIT
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/22 (debt listed at page 14)
Investment Categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy/Bond Substitute
Last Elimination: Item # 1. Eliminated DOC- Sold 46+ at $17.66 (7/3/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $213.64)
Last Substantive Buy Discussion (all shares since sold): Item # 1.A. Bought 50 DOC at $16.4; 5 at $15.96 and 45 at $12.96 and Sold 55 at $16.77 (4/18/20 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 per share), with CAD at $.255.
I would not anticipate a meaningful dividend increase. The last increase was from $.225 per share to $.23 effective for the 2017 third quarter payment.
Yield at $14.59: 6.31%, rounded up.
Last Ex Dividend: 10/3/22 (owned 10 shares as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22): SEC Filed Press Release
FFO per share = $.27, up from $.26 in the 2021 second quarter
FAD per share = $.255
 |
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1. Sold 55 DOC at $16.77 (4/18/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $22.44); Item # 4.A. Sold Remaining DOC at $17.1-Used Commission Free Trade (12/9/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.50); Item # 3.A. Sold 103 DOC at $16.92 (8/19/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $12.97; also contains a snapshot of a 100 share lot sold in 2015 at $16.1, realizing a $237.96 gain-no discussion when sold)
DOC Realized Gains to Date: $617.28
Purchase Restriction: 5 or 10 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.
B. Added to GMRE - Bought 5 at $8.64; 5 at $7.93; 5 at $7.55; 5 at $7.3 -Schwab Taxable Account:
Quote: Global Medical REIT Inc. (GMRE)
52 week low/high: $7.23-$18.51, with the high hit intraday on 1/4/22. The low was hit intraday yesterday.
Working my way up to 100 shares.
5 year chart:
 |
| $7.51 was the closing price on 10/7/22 |
Closing price 10/10/22: $7.24 - $.24 or 3.2%.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 4.D. Added to GMRE- Bought 5 at $9.45; 5 at $9.1 (9/27/22 Post)
New AC per share this account: $9.03 (45 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share
Yield at $9.03 = 9.3%
Yield at $7.3 = 11.51%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/22/22
I discussed the last earnings report in this post: Item # 3.A. Restarted GMRE Again - Bought 10 at $10.66 -Vanguard Taxable Account (9/13/22 Post)
Maximum Position All Accounts: 200 shares
C. Bought 10 GMREPRA at $24.66- Fidelity Taxable Account:
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Sold 70 GMREPRA at $25.87 (4/24/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $208.36); Item # 1.A. Sold 30 GMREPRA at $24.84 (2/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.79)
D. Added to AROW - Bought 5 at $29.9-Fidelity Taxable Account:
Quote: Arrow Financial Corp. (AROW)
Website: Arrow Financial Corporation
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
AROW has been paying a small annual stock dividend for several years. AROW Split History. The most recent stock dividend was 3%. Arrow Financial Corporation Declares Stock Dividend (9/1/22)
Since I do not own enough shares to receive 1 share, the fractional share dividend is liquidated and my account credited with the cash proceeds.
In my Fidelity account, I owned 5 shares when the last share dividend went ex dividend and received in cash in lieu of a fractional share:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share ($1.08 annually), last raised from $.26 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment.
For those who actually receive stock dividend shares, the dividend amount will also increase with those splits without buying more shares. Arrow Declares September 2022 Cash Dividend ("This represents an increase of 7% over the cash dividend paid to shareholders in the second quarter of 2021 as a result of the $.01 per share increase and a 3% stock dividend distributed on September 24, 2021.")
Yield at AC = 3.59%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/31/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22): SEC Filed Press Release
Comparisons are to the 2021 second quarter:
Net Income: $11.974M, down from $13.279M
E.P.S. = $.75, down from $.83
The decreases in net income and E.P.S. Y-O-Y were primarily caused by
NIM: 3.05%, down from 3.12%
Efficiency Ratio: 55.1%, up from 51.3%.
NPL Ratio: .34%, up from .29%
NPA Ratio: .25%, up from .2%
Charge off ratio = .06%
Coverage Ratio = 289.09%
While non-performing loans to total loans (NPL Ratio) ticked up slightly, the number remained low as did the charge off ratio. The NPL, NPA and charge off ratios are not consistent with an ongoing recession.
Tangible Book Value per share: $20.78, up from $20.52
Sell Discussions: Item # 1. Sold 52+ AROW at $37.5 (7/2/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $661.34); Item # 5.A. Sold 100 AROW at $34.7 (4/23/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $62.04); Item # 1.C. Sold 15 AROW at $36.1 (2/10/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $16.99)
AROW Realized Gains to Date: $747.69
E. Added to CODIPRA in Fidelity Account- Bought 5 at $23.52; 5 at $23.85- and Started in Schwab Account with a 5 share purchase at 23.53:
Quote: Compass Diversified Holdings 7.25% Preferred Series A Stock
Issuer: Compass Diversified Holdings (CODI)
CODI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Security: Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Dividends: Paid Quarterly and non-Cumulative
Stopper Clause: Yes, enforces the preferred shareholders superior claim to cash compared only to the common stock.
Maturity: Potentially perpetual; optional call at anytime now. Call protection expired on 7/30/22.
Last Discussed: Item # 3.B. Bought 5 CODIPRA at $24.69 (7/27/22 Post) This was my first purchase of this preferred stock.
Fidelity Account Purchases:
AC Fidelity Account = $24.02 (15 shares)
Yield at $24.02 AC = 7.55%, rounded up.
Yield Schwab Account = 7.7% (5 shares)
Next Ex Dividend: 10/13/22
Maximum Position: 100 shares in all accounts.
F. Added 5 ADX at $14.65 - Schwab Taxable Account :
Quote: Adams Diversified Equity Fund Inc. Overview- A Stock CEF
Website: Adams Funds
SEC Filed Semi-Annual Shareholder Report for the period ending 6/30/22
Last Discussed: Item # 3.C. Bought 10 ADX in Schwab Taxable Account at $16.71 (8/10/22 Post)
Data Date of 9/29/22 Purchase:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $17.35
Closing Market Price: $14.76
Discount: -14.93%
Sourced: ADX Adams Diversified Equity CEF Connect
Average cost per share this account: $16.02 (15 shares)
5 year Distribution History:
Last Elimination: Item # 3.B. Sold 100 at $15.24 (5/22/19 Post)
ADX Realized Gains to Date: $3,172.46 (excludes realized gains prior to 2008) I started to trade ADX in 1984.
Between 2009 to date, the largest realized annual gain was in 2015:
 |
| 467+ Shares +$1,983.24 |
The second largest annual gain was in 2014:
 |
| 459 Shares +$786.65 |
Since I have cut back on my stock allocation over the past six years, resulting in an increase in both my cash and bond allocations, most of my ADX round-trips have been 100 shares or less.
Examples:
G. Added to PINE - Bought 5 at $15.9- Fidelity Taxable Account:
Quote: Alpine Income Property Trust Inc. (PINE)- Net Lease REIT
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Management: External
Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Bought 10 PINE at $18.47; 5 at $18.27 (8/30/22 Post)(First Ever Purchases). I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
Average cost per share: $17.78 (20 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share
Yield at AC = 6.0742%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/9/2022
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: 5 or 10 share lots. Each subsequent purchase must reduce my AC per share.
H. Added to SLRC - Bought 1 at $13.38; 4 at $12.53; 3 at $12.34-Fidelity Taxable Account:
Quote: SLR Investment - A BDC
Management: External
Website: Home
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/22 (summary of investments starts at page 7)
2021 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 28 and ends at page 70)
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 2.B. Added to SLRC - Bought 5 at $15.39; 5 at $14.65 (5/26/22 Post)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.D. Added to SLRC - Bought 5 at $14.35; 5 at $14 (7/20/22 Post)
Average cost per share: $15.85 (131+ shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.136667 per share ($1.64 annually)
I am currently reinvesting the dividend as a means to average down and to purchase additional shares at a discount to net asset value per share.
Yield at $15.85 = 10.3547%
Next Ex Dividend: 10/19/22
Net Asset Value per share history:
6/30/22: $18.53
12/31/21: $19.93
12/31/20: $20.16
9/30/20: $20.14 10-Q
12/31/19: $21.44
12/31/18: $21.75
12/31/17: $21.81
12/31/16: $21.74
12/31/15: $20.79
12/31/14: $22.05
12/31/13: $22.50
12/31/12: $22.70
12/31/11: $22.02
Initial Public Offering: Prospectus February 2010, priced to the public at $18.5 and at $17.205 to the underwriters
Discount to 6/30/22 NAV per share at AC = 14.46%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22): SEC Filed Press Release
NII per share: $.37
Number of portfolio companies: >780
"As of June 30, 2022, on a fair value basis, 99.4% of the Company’s portfolio was performing."
SLRC Realized Gains to Date: $100.07
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3.C. Sold 60 SLRC at $21.56 (10/17/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $37.14) Other sell discussions are mentioned in this post near the end: Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 3/13/16 | Seeking Alpha
I. Added to AMKBY - Bought 5 at $8.73:
Quotes:
USD: A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S ADR
DKK: MAERSK.B (Denmark)
AP Moeller Maersk A/S -Reuters Profile
Website: About A.P. Moller - Maersk | Maersk
Investor Relations - A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S
As with DNNGY, discussed below, the US priced ADR has recently underperformed the DKK priced shares due to the USD rising in value against the Danish Krone.
The DKK/USD was near .157 in late October 2021 and is now hovering around .13. Danish Krone to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
ADR Ratio: 1 ADR = .005 ordinary
Working my way up to 100 shares.
Investor Relations - A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S
Last Substantive Discussion: Item #2.J. Bought 5 AMKBY at $11.87 (6/22/22 Post) I discussed the 2022 first quarter report in that post.
Last Elimination: Item # 2.I. Eliminated AMKBY - Sold 25 at $16.98 (1/7/22 Post)
Average cost per share: $13.12 (50 shares)
Dividend: Paid annually at a variable rate which depends on prior year's profit. The last dividend, paid earlier this year, was US$1.85 per share which was unusually large. In 2021, the company benefited from strong container freight prices.
The TTM P/E was 1.28 as of 10/9/22. A. P. Moller Maersk P/E Ratio
IMO, that P/E can only be justified based on a near 100% probability that the company will soon experience significant losses which will continue over an extended period of time.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22): Presentation.pdf
Comparisons are to the 2021 second quarter.
Net profit: US$8.621B, up from $3.746B
Revenues: US$21.65B, up from US$14,230B
Free Cash Flow: US$6.8B
Guidance
J. Added to NWL in Schwab Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $13.8:
Quote: Newell Brands Inc.
NWL Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Working my way up to 100 shares in this account.
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 3.B. Added to NWL in Schwab Taxable Account- Bought 2 at $18.56; 3 at $18.26; 5 at $17.5 (9/6/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Last Discussed: Item # 4.E. Added to NWL in Schwab Taxable Account - Bought 1 at $16.03; 3 at $15.5; 2 at $14.92; 3 at $14.53 (9/27/22 Post)
Average cost per share = $17.2 (35+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share
I am reinvesting the dividend for as long as the reinvestment price lowers my AC per share.
Yield at AC = 5.35%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/30/22 (owned 10 as of)
The slide in NWL's price, to the extent it can be explained on a rational basis, is related IMO to the rise in interest rates, particularly given NWL's high debt levels, and to input cost inflation for NWL's relatively low priced products (e.g. Rubbermaid, Mr. Coffee, Sunbeam, Oster, Crock-Pot, Coleman, Yankee Candle, Graco, Sharpie, Elmer's Glue, Parker, Paper Mate)
K. Added to CTO in Schwab Taxable Account - Bought 2 at $17.77; 3 at $17.54:
Quote: CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO)
Website: Home - CTO Realty Growth, Inc.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy/Bond substitute
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 3.E. Bought 5 CTO at $21.54-Schwab Taxable Account (8/30/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post.
Last Discussed: Item # 3.D. Added to CTO in Schwab Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $20.65 (9/6/22 Post)
Average cost per share this account: $19.75 (18+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.38 per share ($1.52 annually)
I am reinvesting the dividend.
Yield at AC = 7.7%, rounded up.
Last Ex Dividend: 9/9/22
L. Added to DEI in Vanguard Taxable - Bought 2 at $17.66; 3 at $17.19; 2 at $16.48:
Quote: Douglas Emmett Inc. (DEI)
52 week high: $36.27, hit intraday on 1/7/22
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Bought 10 DEI at $22.53 (7/27/22 Post) This was my first ever purchase.
Average cost per share: $20.30 (17 shars)
Dividend: Paid Quarterly at $.28 per share and non-qualified. Currently well covered by cash available for distribution.
Yield at AC = 5.52%, rounded up.
Last Ex Dividend: 9/29/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22): SEC Filed Press Release
FFO per share = $.51
AFFO per share (same as cash available for distribution) = $.433, rounded up (note the $21.544M deduction from FFO for maintenance expenditures and tenant improvements, which will be a large number for office and apartment REITs)
Offices and Apartments:
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: 1 to 10 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to lower my AC per share.
M. Added to DNNGY - Bought 3 at $26.85; 2 at $25.62:
Quotes:
USD: Oersted A/S ADR
DKK: Oersted A/S (Denmark: OMX)
DKK to USD -Danish Krone to US Dollars
Part of the recent decline is attributable to the USD gaining in value against the Danish Krone.
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 2.I. Added to DNNGY - Bought 1 at $32.6; 2 at $31.98 (5/26/22 Post)
Website: Renewable Energy Solutions to Fight Climate Change | Ørsted
Green Energy Solutions | Ørsted
Average cost per share = $35.77 (22 shares)
Dividend: Paid annually in DKK, converted into USDs for owners of the USD priced ADR.
The last USD dividend was $.6056 per ADR share and went ex dividend last April.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22): Interim financial report Q2 2022 v18.pdf
Profit declined compared to the 2021 second quarter due to higher depreciation expenses and an asset sale gain in the 2021 second quarter:
The asset sale in 2021 was a 50% interest in Borssele offshore wind farm that netted a DKK5.4B gain. Ørsted completes partnership with Norges Bank Investment Management on Borssele 1 & 2, discussed at Ørsted brings in Norges Bank Investment Management as a partner in Borssele 1 & 2
Other Recent News:
Danish authorities order Ørsted’s oil- and coal-fired power stations into operation (two of the 3 generation plants were already mothballed and 1 is still in operation and was scheduled to be decommissioned in March 2023)
Ørsted completes divestment of 50 % of Hornsea 2 Offshore Wind Farm (9/29/22), discussed at Ørsted partners with AXA IM Alts and Crédit Agricole Assurances on Hornsea 2 Offshore Wind Farm (3/28/22)(total value of transaction = GBP3B)
Ørsted completes acquisition of German and French onshore wind platform Ostwind (9/19/22), discussed at Ørsted acquires German and French onshore wind platform Ostwind (7/22/22)
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: 2 to 5 share lots, with each subsequent purchase required to reduce my average cost per share.
N. Added to EPRT Bought 2 at $19.95- Fidelity Taxable Account:
Quote: Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc.- Net Lease Reit
Working my way slowly up to 100 shares.
Portfolio as of 6/30/22:
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy/Bond Substitute
Last Substantive Discussion: Item 2.L. Added to EPRT - BOUGHT 2 AT $23.28; 3 AT $23.38; 3 at $22.73; 2 at $21.55 (5/12/22 Post)
Last Discussed: Item # 4.H. Bought 3 EPRT at $20.3 (6/15/22 Post)
Investment Categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy/Bond Substitute
Average cost per share = $24.78 (32+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share
Yield at AC = 4.36%
Last Ex Dividend: 9/29/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/22):
SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
Comparisons are to the 2021 second quarter.
FFO per share: $.41, up from $.32
AFFO per share: $.38 (good current coverage IMO for the $.27 quarterly dividend), up from $.34.
 |
| Footnotes Omitted |
Debt:
 |
| Page 6 Supplemental |
The $400M in SU debt refers to a 2.95% note that matures on 7/15/2031 that was offered in June 2021. Bond Detail The SU debt is rated Baa3/BBB-. I will consider buying 2 when and if the price breaks below 70.
"The Company is increasing its expectation that 2022 AFFO per share on a fully diluted basis will be within a range of $1.52 to $1.54 from its previously announced range of $1.50 to $1.53."
O. Added to FZILX - Bought $50 at $8.93:
Quote: Fidelity ZERO International Index Fund Overview
Sponsor's Website: FZILX - Fidelity ZERO ® International Index Fund | Fidelity Investments
Holdings as of 8/31/22: 2,461 stocks
Top 10 Holdings as of 8/31/22:
Expense ratio: Zero
Current Position: 112+ shares
Average cost per share = $8.77
Distribution History:
I am reinvesting the dividend.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
