Showing posts with label HPF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label HPF. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Sold: 50 PFS @ 14.4, 100 GGN @18.13, 50 DKQ @ 23, 100 MLPI @ 29.93, 200 SFH @ 10.85/Bought 50 IGI at 20.05 & 100 @ 19.85, Bought 50 HPF @ 17.55 and at 17.76

Walmart same store sales in the U.S. declined for the sixth straight quarter, as the company met expectations for its Q/E 10/2010 with an E.P.S. of 90 cents.  I do not own WMT shares, and view the foregoing as important only in what it says about the U.S. consumer.   

The decline in municipal bond ETFs and CEFs has the flavor of manipulation to me, as if some hedge funds were trying to induce a selling panic which has already been successful.  The bond CEFs which will generally have relatively low share volumes are more susceptible to price manipulation than the ETFs. 

With my recent capital raises, coming primarily from a shift out of stocks into cash, I have elected to continue buying the bond CEFs, corporate and municipal, leveraged and unleveraged, as they plummet in value.  However, I have decided to change my purchases from 100 share nibbles to 50 shares and to space the buys out more in time.   I will also change my distribution options on some of them, less than 1/2, to reinvestment into additional shares. 

An important part of investment strategy is the shift in asset allocations based on a dynamic, as distinguished from a static,  process.  Instability & Volatility in Asset Correlations  Static v. Dynamic Asset Allocation More on Failures of Standard Asset Allocation Models and Target Funds/Use of Volatility in an Asset Class to Make Adjustments to an Asset Allocation  

This process also requires a continuous assessment of the relative value of assets in real time.  Back in October 2008, when I started to write this blog, that process led me to a niche type of investment, called trust certificates, that represented an undivided interest in the bonds owned by the trust, as well as floating rate equity preferred stocks with guarantees like METPRA, REIT preferred stocks, Synthetic Floaters, European hybrids and exchange traded baby bonds. Trust CertificatesAEgon Hybrids ING HybridsAdvantages and Disadvantages of Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities Floaters 


When I first discussed AEB for example, it was selling at $7 per share, LIBOR AND THE AEGON FLOATING RATE PREFERRED STOCK (Oct 2008).  In retrospect, this proved to be an excellent price to initiate a position. 

However, in the ensuing months, the price of this security fell to $3.  The moral of that story is that I may ultimately be proven right about the asset class being undervalued and rewarded for my assessment, but it may look like that I made a mistake for weeks or even months.

I was rewarded quite soon for the shift out of short term bonds into stocks in March 2009 (see posts staring in early March 2009).  These  kinds of asset allocation shifts are absolutely necessary during a long term secular bear market in one or more major asset classes, and needs to be accelerated in periods where the volatility indexes are in what I call an Unstable VIX Pattern. Vix Asset Allocation Model Explained Simply  VIX Chart from 2007: Alerts and Triggers Major Disruption of Cyclical Stable Bull VIX Pattern Current Status of The Vix Asset Allocation Model Signal (August 2010 post) The alternative is go nowhere  for fifteen years or so, and to lose ground to inflation. Buy and Hold or Dynamic Asset Allocation/Trading: Long Term Secular Bull and Bear Markets 

While security selection is certainly important,  asset allocation is the key. I mentioned in a comment to the an earlier post that I will underperform the market for the remainder of the year in the event stocks rally into year end. I outperformed in 2008 due to the shift out of stocks into short term bonds and cash. Buy High & Sell Low /Retrospective on the Good & Bad (October 2008) If stocks had continued to move up in 2008, I would have significantly underperformed my benchmark of the S & P 500. As mentioned in that comment and in prior posts, my goal every year is to beat the S & P 500 with a balanced portfolio,  hopefully designing a portfolio that is less volatile and risky than that market average while ultimately performing better. And do that successfully, I have to be mostly right in my asset allocations even if my timing is off some.   

Over the past several weeks, it is apparent to anyone reading this blog daily that I have shifted money out of stocks into cash. I see some value in the closed end bond funds, whose yields and discounts to net asset value are increasing by significant amounts daily. Market pricing of those securities has become irrational in relation to the price movements of the securities owned by those funds, and the precipitous declines in those funds suggest to me price manipulation. So I am adding some shares to those funds each trading day now, and will continue to do so if and when they decline further in their market prices. Based on the price action in the bond CEFs yesterday, you would not have known there was a robust rally in the treasuries as well as a recovery in LQD, the ETF for investment grade corporates.  The thirty year treasury rose 2 12/32, while the 10 year advanced by 1 1/32. TLT jumped $2.33 or 2.48%. VCLT, a Vanguard ETF for long term corporate bonds, rose $1.26 to $77.77. 

The  ^VIX shot up 2.38 to close at 22.58 yesterday, spending only seven days below 20.  So far, the swing trade, which involves selling stocks when the VIX falls below 20, and buying them back on spikes to the high 20s or above, continues to work, which is a characteristic of the whipsaw movement of a Phase 1 Unstable Vix Pattern.  

1. SOLD 100 GGN at $18.13 on Monday in the Roth IRA (see Disclaimer):  I simply can not maintain a bullish stance on the price of gold at current levels. I bought 100 shares of GGN, a CEF that invests in gold mining and other natural resource stocks at 17.41 in October and will collect one monthly dividend. I may buy this one back when and if there is a substantial correction in gold mining stocks.  GGN closed at $18.14 on Monday, and had then a net asset value of $17.57 per share.  I almost bought these shares back on Tuesday in a taxable account.  

2. Sold 50 DKQ at $23 on Monday (see Disclaimer): DKQ is a trust certificate containing a senior bond, originally issued by May Department stores, now part of Macy's.  The TC has a lower coupon at 6.25% than the underlying bond.  www.sec.gov  At the $23 price the yield is around 6.79%.  Fitch and Moody's rate the underlying bond in the junk category.  I bought those shares over a year ago at $15.95.  I have bought and sold this TC, and no longer have a position in it.  When I first started to discuss it, it was trading at around $10.  TRUST CERTIFICATE MACY'S BOND DKQ

3. Sold 100 of the ETF MLPI at $29.93 for a ST Capital Gain in a taxable account on Monday (see Disclaimer):  The purchase of those MLPI shares was made  at 25.9 in July.  This is pure profit taking and a further indication of my increased caution. 

4. Sold SFH at $10.85 on Monday (See Disclaimer):  This is one of those sort of "principal protected notes". Bought 200 SFH at 10.18  When I sold the shares, I was assuming that Bank of America was highly likely to pay off the note, shortly after the first "observation" date on 11/29, at $10.955 per share.  After thinking about it for a few seconds, I did not see any reason to hang around for a few more bucks, particularly when the LB has an itchy trigger finger. 

5. Sold 50 of 100 PFS at $14.4 on Tuesday (Regional Bank Stocks' basket strategy)(see Disclaimer):  I pared this position by selling my higher cost shares, using FIFO accounting, which were bought at 12.74 last August. I am keeping the shares bought shortly after the first odd lot at 11.68.  PFS popped over 5% on Tuesday on news that it would be added soon to the S & P 600 small cap index. I view that kind of pop as artificial and usually temporary, and will generally pare a position whenever it occurs.  

Profit Snapshot: +$67.08


I am keeping track of the realized gains in the regional bank basket in Item # 3 2010 Realized Gains Regional Bank Stock  The unrealized gains have slipped some over the past few days, now standing at $4017.  As I would expect in a large basket, most of the unrealized gains are concentrated in a few issues.  As of yesterday's closing prices, these include the following:

50 WBS at + $ 627
100 NYB at  + $557
100 WASH at + $526
50 UBSI at + $520
100 CZNC at + $433
100 NHTB at + $359
100 FFIC at + $206
50 WSBC at  + $198.5  50 RNST at +$188    50 CCNE at + $179   50 MBVT at + $170   50 STL at + $138 50 TRMK at +$136 and 50 PFS at $107.5  (13 in the green below a $100 and 10 losers with an unrealized loss of $1051 led by PBIB at  -$317 and VLY at  -$242)


6.  Bought 50 of the investment grade term corporate bond CEF IGI at $20.05 in the Roth IRA and 100 shares at $19.85 in a taxable account, both on Tuesday (see Disclaimer):  Before buying this CEF again, I checked on the price of LQD, an ETF which also contains U.S. investment grade corporate bonds.  At the time of my trade, LQD was up 37 cents.    IGI, an investment grade bond CEF, which is unleveraged, had fallen 77 cents or over 4% when I made this purchase.  This was occurring at a time when I believed the value of the underlying bonds had increased in value during the trading day, up to that time.   Later, I noticed a small loss in LQD at around 10:30 and then bought 100 IGI at $19.85, down $1.05 per share at that point.   It was at that time that I decided to spread out my orders more in time and to reduce the size to only 50 share odd lots.


I have previously discussed this unleveraged bond CEF in detail. Bought 100 CEF IGI at $19.89 Sold 100 IGI at 21.26 Bought 100 IGI @ 21.04


As of the close on 11/15, IGI had a net asset value of $21.43 per share.  Legg Mason - IGI - Western Asset Investment Grade Defined Opportunity Trust Inc.  Dividends are paid monthly. A list of the current holdings can be found at the sponsor's web site: IGI Holdings


At a total cost of $19.85, the yield based on the current monthly dividend rate of $.1045 would be about 6.32%.  The dividend will be a tad higher in December due to some capital gains realized by this fund.    www.leggmason.com /press_release/ -IGI_Dividend_November_2010.pdf


IGI closed yesterday at $20.34, down 46 cents or 2.21%, and traded as low as $19.83.


The net asset value rose on Tuesday to $21.49 from $21.43.  The discount expanded to -5.35.   

IGI is ex dividend today.

7.  Bought 50 shares of the leveraged corporate bond CEF HPF at $17.55 in the Roth IRA and at 17.76 in a taxable account (see disclaimer):  I strongly suspect that this CEF, along with many others, has been subject to price manipulation to the downside, at least during the past several trading days.   When I added 50 shares on Tuesday at $17.55, this CEF, with mostly investment grade bonds, had declined from yesterday's close of $18.68 to $17.55, a $1.13 decline or 6%.   PGX, an ETF with similar holdings, was down less than 1% when I placed that trade.  At a $17.55 price, the yield on HPF at its monthly current distribution rate of $.124 per share is around 8.48%.   


I thought that the pricing in HPF yesterday, as well as most other bond CEFs, was most likely due to market manipulation by one or more funds, deliberating driving the price down.  Given the relatively low volume in these securities, and their heavy concentration in ownership among individuals, the nefarious lot can work a lot of mischief with a couple of million dollars, or even less.      

During the day, HPF fell as low as  $17.51 from its Monday close at $18.68 (a 6.26% decline intra-day).  The net value was at $20.36 on 11/15, with the discount then at -8.25.  There was a small decline in NAV on 11/16 to $20.22, a 14 cent drop from Monday's number (.00687% actual decline in NAV vs. market price decline of .0626% intra-day). Based on the closing price on 11/16, the discount to net asset value expanded to -9.05. 


The remaining trades from Tuesday will be discussed in the next post.    This kind of volatility will cause me to do more trading, selling some positions for gains and re-allocating capital to new positions viewed as potentially more rewarding. 

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Added: 100 HPF @ 19.14, 40 INTC @ 19.16

I was busy working on another matter yesterday and did not have more than a few minutes to devote to this blog.

1. DKI (own): This recently purchased TC, containing a senior bond from Sprint Capital, has been called by the owner of the call warrant at its $25 par value plus accrued interest. Structured Asset Trust Unit Repackagings (SATURNS) Series 2003-2 Trust Receipt of Notice of Intent to Exercise Call Options in Full The call date is 11/1/2010. I just bought these shares at 24.95. The underlying security was trading recently at around a 10% premium to its par value. FINRA

2. Added 40 to Intel at $19.16 (see Disclaimer): I used the proceeds realized from selling 100 Brooks Automation to add to my Intel position. The $19.16 is at the top of my range for buying Intel shares. My last add was at 18.35. My previous buys of Intel were noted in the following posts: Bought INTC at 14.46 Bought Intel at 15.25 Bought Intel at $15.87 Added to Intel at $19.08 I try to remain disciplined about my buy and sell ranges.

The dividend yield for INTC is about 3.26% at a total cost of $19.16, significantly higher than the current yield of a ten year treasury bond which is currently hovering around 2.5%. While the treasury bond has a fixed coupon, Intel has been raising its dividend in recent years. If the dividend raises continue, the current yield differential of .75% will continue to widen. The current price is less than 10 times the consensus estimate for 2010 and 2011. INTC Analyst Estimates The 5 year P.E.G. ratio is .79: INTC Key Statistics

One knock on Intel is the widespread belief that the current up cycle has peaked or is near peaking. This is one of the unknowables. At the current price, I believe that any positive news that calls into question the herd opinion will cause a spike in the price, hopefully into the mid-20s where I would anticipate paring the position. I am reinvesting the dividends.

3. Added 100 HPF at $19.14 (see Disclaimer): This brings me to 300 shares of this bond CEF that has been correcting some after crossing $20 in late September: HPF Historical Prices As discussed in Monday's post, this CEF owns mostly junior and senior bonds, and has only a few securities properly characterized as "equity preferred" stocks. The few equity preferred stocks are from REITs. At the current monthly dividend rate of 12.4 cents, the yield at a total cost of $19.14 is around 7.77%. The fund does use leverage.

As of 10/15/2010, the net asset value was $20.4 and the closing share price last Friday was $19.57. This created a discount at that time of -4.43, slightly higher than the similar CEF HPI. Information about these funds can be found at the sponsor's web site: John Hancock Funds - Closed-End Funds - Daily Prices The discount did expand yesterday to -5.35 based a closing price of $19.27 and a NAV of $20.36.

The discount on BHK is also expanding some, closing at -5.91 yesterday and at -3.72 on Friday. The NAV for BHK was $14.05 per share as of 10/18/2010. The NAV increased by nine cents from last Friday while the share price declined by 22 cents, thereby increasing the size of the discount to net asset value.

The expense ratio for HPI, before interest expense, is 1.29% before fee waivers and 1.2% after waivers. With the interest expense, the expense ratio was 1.8% for the F/Y ending in July 2010, down from 2.55% in F/Y 2011: see page 17, www.sec.gov. The current interest rate paid by the fund is 1 month Libor plus .85%, plus a commitment fee paid annually (see page 24). The 1 month LIBOR rate is around .26% currently: Key Rates Rates - Bloomberg 1 Month LIBOR As of 7/31/2010, the fund had borrowed 205.3 million at an interest rate of 1.155%. So, for now at least, there is a good spread between the cost of borrowing and the yield produced by the securities bought with leverage. But the 1 month LIBOR rate is currently at an abnormally low rate by historical standards. LIBOR Rates History (Historical)

Monday, October 18, 2010

Sold: 200 CDZ.TO @ 20.13, 50 GJS @ 16.20, 100 GYB @ 19.9, 100 GDV @ 14.35, 50 FTE @ 23.18, 100 BRKS @ 7.15/Bought 100 HPF @ 19.68, 40 VLY 12.61/CZNC

It is my understanding that the London P.M. Fix for the spot gold price is the applicable price for both MOL and MTY (Past Historical London Fix Daily Fix: Live Market Quotes). This is the pertinent language in the MOL prospectus:

"The Starting Price for each Coupon Period will equal the price of a troy ounce of gold on the first Business Day of such Coupon Period, stated in U.S. dollars, as set by the five members of the London Gold Market Fixing Ltd. during the afternoon session of the twice-daily price of gold fix which starts at 3:00 p.m. London, England time (the “London PM Fix”), as reported on Reuters page “GOFO” or Bloomberg Screen “GOLDLNPM ,” or any successor page. The Starting Price for the first Coupon Period equals $1169.50.
The Ending Price for each Coupon Period will equal the London PM Fix of a troy ounce of gold on the last Business Day of such Coupon Period, as reported on Reuters page “GOFO” or Bloomberg Screen “GOLDLNPM ,” or any successor page.
The Closing Price for each Business Day will equal the London PM Fix of a troy ounce of gold on such Business Day, as reported on Reuters page “GOFO” or Bloomberg Screen “GOLDLNPM ,” or any successor page."

Page PS-12 MOL Prospectus MTY is the same: Page PS-12 Final Pricing Supplement

Bought 200 MOL at 9.95 The maximum level for MOL in its first annual period, which closes on 11/18/2010, is $1391.705. Any close above that level prior to the closing price on 11/18 triggers a reversion to 2%. The London P.M. fix on 10/15 was $1367.5. I have not seen- yet- a close above 1391.7. On Friday, MOL closed at $10.09, with enormous volume for it (10,200 shares), and traded in a $9.8 to $10.13 range. This indicates that the market believes that a reversion to 2% is close to 100% certain, in my opinion. The A.M. fix this morning (10/18) was lower than Friday's close at $1359.75. Live Market Quotes

1. Sold 200 CDZ.TO at 20.13 CAD on Thursday (see Disclaimer): CDZ is a Claymore Canadian stock ETF that trades on the Toronto exchange. Claymore S&P/TSX Canadian Dividend ETF - CDZ I bought the 200 shares in two 100 round lots. Bought 100 ETF CDZ:TO at 19.24 CAD Bought: 100 CDZ.TO @ 18.64 CAD I received a few monthly dividends. I am just attempting to earn some kind of return of my long term Canadian Dollar position. I am therefore more than pleased with the profit on the 200 CDZ shares given that limited purpose. This transaction also replenishes my stash of Canadian dollars for another potential investment.

2. Sold Remaining shares of FTE at $23.18 on Thursday (see Disclaimer): I sold the remaining 50 shares of France Telecom at $23.18 that were bought shortly before an ex dividend date at $20.47. It seemed to me that most of the appreciation in FTE was due to rise in the Euro against the USD. While it is just an opinion, I do not think that a rise to or over €1.4 to $1 USD is justified, and I view the dollar as oversold against the Euro and the Yen. That is not to say, however, that both the Yen and the Euro are done rising in value against our lowly currency.

3. Sold 100 of the 300 GDV at 14.35 and Added 100 HPF at 19.68 on Thursday (see Disclaimer): These transactions occurred in what I call one my satellite brokerage accounts, where I am attempting to earn some kind of return on savings that was not normally invested in securities prior to the Fed's Jihad against savers, now in its third year. I established two of these satellite accounts where the cash is normally invested in a money market fund, a savings account, certificates of deposit, a few low cost bond funds, and one equity income income stock fund.

GDV is a stock CEF and the shares sold last Thursday were bought at 13.33 early in August 2010. While this stock CEF pays monthly dividends, always appreciated here at HQ, the bond CEF HPF also pays monthly dividends and has a higher yield. I have previously bought and sold HPF.Sold HPF at 20.35 in Roth Bought 100 HPF at 19.09 in Roth IRA The most recent purchase was at 19.89. I noticed on 10/14 that the price was sliding some and I suspected the discount to net asset value was expanding beyond the -3.3% reported as of 10/13. The net asset value can be found at the sponsor's web site, John Hancock Funds - Closed-End Funds - Daily Prices. It is also available at the WSJ.com, CEFA, and Morningstar.

The current dividend rate is $.124 per month. Historical Distributions Assuming that rate continues, this would result in a 7.56% yield at a total cost of $19.68. The last ex date was 10/7: John Hancock Closed-End Funds Declare Monthly Distributions

The most recent shareholder report filed with the SEC is the Annual Report for the year ending in on 7/31/2010.

I mentioned in an earlier post that this fund's name, which contains the word Preferred, creates an erroneous impression among many investors, who associate that term with traditional or equity preferred stocks. The readers of this blog, who peruse the holdings in HPF, will see many of the exchange traded bonds mentioned by me. Most of the holdings are properly classified as senior bonds, trust preferred (in effect junior bonds), and European hybrids (combining equity and bond characteristics, while being in reality a junior bond with no maturity).

The discount did expand on Thursday by over one per cent. The closing market price on 10/14/10 was $19.61 with a NAV at 20.54 creating a discount to NAV of -4.53. Part of the selling may be related to concerns about the home foreclosure mess and fears about how that may impact large financial institutions. Many of these bond funds own several TPs issued by large banks. While I only own a few bank TPs directly, I have a large monitor list and have noticed declines in many of the ones from large banking banking institutions, particularly Bank of America, that accelerated into Friday. Some of the selling is in response to a hedge fund report on possible "put backs" to BAC, that an analysts calls dubious, Barrons, and it reeks of dubious motives. The net asset values of bond CEFs also declined on Friday due to a decline in longer term bond prices. TLT, the ETF for the 20 year treasury, declined $1.24 or 1.22% on Friday.

According to the last filed shareholder report, HPF had a 51% exposure to financials (page 7: www.sec.gov) Some of the financials are insurance companies and REITs. Some of the bank exposure is to large foreign institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, ING and Santander. But there is significant holdings in large U.S. bank TPs containing junior bonds from U. S. Bank, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and J.P. Morgan (see page 9, remember that Fleet and Merrill TPs are now part of BAC).

4. GE (OWN): GE reported earnings from continuing operations of 29 cents, beating expectations by 2 cents, while revenues fell 5.1% and missed the consensus estimate. The estimate was for 37.5 billion in revenues and GE reported 35.9 billion. Revenues fell 14% in GE's energy infrastructure business (-1.4 billion decline). The order backlog was 172 billion, close to where it was at the end of 2008. Profit from GE Capital rose to 871 million in the quarter, up from 141 million in the 3rd quarter of 2009. GE Capital has reduced its balance sheet to 75 billion from 83.7 billion in the linked quarter from 2009. This statement in the press release may have troubled some investors: “Also in the quarter, GE Capital increased reserves by $1.1 billion related to our disposition of our former Japan consumer finance business, recorded in discontinued operations,” Immelt said. “Based on what we know today, we believe this update fully addresses our claims risk.”

It appears that more institutions are throwing in the towel on GE, as some kind of loser stock unlikely to ever get its mojo back. There was certainly a lot of selling pressure after this latest report, as over 204 million shares exchanged hands in regular trading and the stock closed down 86 cents or 5.01%. Anyone investing in GE now is going to have to have, or acquire somehow, a great deal of patience and to take a very long view. I am currently hovering close to 500 shares, mostly bought in the $10 to $16 range, and I am reinvesting the dividends.


5. WBS (OWN): Webster Financial (WBS) reported net income after preferred dividends of 17.8 million or 22 cents per share. The consensus estimate was for an E.P.S. of 17 cents. "The tangible common equity and Tier 1 common equity to risk weighted assets ratios increased to 5.91 percent and 8.19 percent, respectively, compared to 5.79 percent and 8.12 percent at June 30, 2010." Net interest margin increased to 3.36% from 3.27% at the end of the second quarter.

I bought my shares of Webster in March 2009 at $4.58. Webster initially popped on the new, rising to $18.60 early on Friday before being caught in the downdraft for banks and closed down 31 cents at $17.67.

6. Sold 100 BRKS at 7.15 (see disclaimer): This latest foray into Brooks Automation proved barely profitable, only due to buying 60 shares at 5.8 after buying 40 at at 7.72. I am going to add to my Intel position in the event it slides a tad further.

7. Added 40 VLY at 12.61 (Regional Bank Stocks' basket strategy) (see disclaimer): This add brings me to a round lot of 200 shares in Valley National. I am in a small hole on my prior purchases, and still like the bank notwithstanding that unrealized loss. Bought 50 VLY at $15.06 Added 50 VLY at 16.6 (5% stock dividend on first 100 shares) Bought 55 VLY at 13.24 While I would not view any bank dividend as secure, VLY still has one of the better ones at its current price. The bank is currently paying 18 cents a quarter. If that continues, and that is always a question these days, the yield at a total cost of $12.61 would be about 5.71%.

8. Sold Remaining Synthetic Floaters Tied to GS bonds (see Disclaimer): After numerous buys and sells, I decided to completely exit the synthetic floaters tied to GS bonds that I have been trading since Spring of 2009. I sold on Friday 50 shares of GJS at $16.2 and 100 shares of GYB at $19.90. Both positions were recently established and the profit realized on these trades was immaterial. Bought: 50 GJS at 14.6 Pared Trades in Roth: Sold 100 PYT at 19.25 & Bought 100 GYB at 18.98 Since mid 2009, I have been buying and selling synthetic floaters only in the retirement accounts due to tax issues connected with the swap agreements which create the float.

The primary purpose for selling these securities now is their low interest rate. I intend to substitute bonds with a higher current yield, and I may come back to one of the fixed coupon TCs with a GS TP or the 2033 senior bond, provided I can buy one at a more favorable price.

Another reason is that one or more BAC TPs may continue to decline in response to the latest hyperventilation about banks. A couple of those TPs have fallen in price to yield around 8%, which is starting to become attractive and the sells of the lower yielding synthetic floaters frees up funds to buy one of these securities after a further decline. Apparently, investors are now imagining the worst possible case for the foreclosure mess and then forming a belief that such an outcome is a virtual certainty. If the BAC common continues to fall 80 or cents or so a day, then it will be around zero before the end of this month.

My share profit realized in 2009-2010 from trading GJS, PYT and GYB is $2411.49, plus interest payments.

9. CZNC (own)( Regional Bank Stocks' basket strategy): Citizens & Northern reported net income of 4.135 million for the 3rd quarter or 34 cents per share. Earnings were reduced by 5 cents due to accelerated accretion related to the bank's repayment of TARP funds. The estimate was for 34 cents, and I do not know whether that estimate included or excluded that 5 cent charge. The earnings were released in the morning and the stock traded up on heavier than normal volume.

As of 9/30/2010, tangible common equity to tangible assets was 9.94%; the tier 1 risk based capital ratio was 15.67%; the total risk based capital ratio was 16.9%; and the NPAs to total assets was .82%. www.sec.gov

On Friday, CZNC rose 53 cents in trading on Friday to close at $13.67. Bought 50 CZNC at 11.77 Added 50 CZNC at 10.46 (five year chart: Citizens & Northern Corp Stock Chart | CZNC )