Economy:
Britain and European Union strike last-minute post-Brexit trade deal
Personal income decreased 1.1% in November with consumer spending falling .4%.
U.S. GDP Q3 2020 final reading With a $3T stimulus and a super accommodative FED monetary policy, the final reading for third quarter GDP growth was estimated at a 33.4% annualized rate. The 2nd quarter contraction was at a 31.4% annualized rate. GDP was 3.5% below the 2019 4th quarter number. Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2020 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
New-home sales fall as buyers begin to get cold feet in an expensive market - MarketWatch (11% below the downwardly revised October number)
 |
| U.S. Census Bureau-November New Single Family Homes Sales |
Covid relief bill extends and enhances unemployment benefits; Second stimulus package: See what's in it; Income limits to be eligible for second stimulus check Trump took no interest in this stimulus bill. He waited until after the Senate and House passed the law to demand changes.Covid stimulus update: Trump threat could force shutdown, unemployment lapse (12/23/20) I believe that Trump is just trying to burn the house down and to embarrass Senate republicans, particularly McConnell, for finally recognizing Biden as President-Elect. Friction between Trump, GOP amid election claims and COVID relief efforts: USA Today
Funding for the government is linked to the stimulus bill. If Trump does not sign before next Tuesday, the government will have to shut down.
Trump: "I’m also asking Congress to immediately get rid of the wasteful and unnecessary items from this legislation and to send me a suitable bill or else the next administration will have to deliver a COVID relief package, and maybe that administration will be me, and we will get it done." (emphasis added) Donald Trump Video Speech Transcript on COVID Relief Bill December 22 - Rev.
(Trump's criticisms about specific spending items were not part of the stimulus package but were part of the separate government funding legislation.)
Chicago Fed's November national activity index points to slowdown - MarketWatch; Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
U.S. consumer confidence tumbles in December - MarketWatch (December index at 88.6, down from 92.9 in November)
Weekly jobless claims rise less than expected, but hold above 800,000 at 803
+++
Markets and Market Commentary:
The 'single greatest risk' facing Americans could hit within a decade, billionaire investor warns - MarketWatch Same Zell thinks the USD will lose its reserve currency status within 10 to 15 years provided the U.S. continues along its current path which is almost a 100% certainty that it will.
Do record-low interest rates justify the stock market’s overvaluation? Here’s the answer - MarketWatch Mark Hulbert says no. The best historical predictor of inflation adjusted stock market returns over the next ten years has been Market Cap to GDP, the Buffett valuation measure. Using this valuation measure, currently at the most bearish level since 1950, "the S&P 500’s projected 10-year inflation-adjusted total return is minus 9.3% annualized. Upon including real interest rates in the model, the projection worsens to minus 10.4%."
Market Cap to GDP Ratio - The Buffett Indicator - Updated Historical Chart | Longtermtrends In August 1982, when an 18 year bull run in stocks started, this valuation indicator was at .334. The ratio is now at 1.89.
(Note: I am continuing to link Marketwatch articles that may be behind a paywall now. Marketwatch has started a subscription model for its site. For whatever reason, the paywall is not impacting my access so far, except on a limited basis, probably due to my Barron's subscription. Barron's and Marketwatch share common ownership. The bottom line is that I do not know which articles are behind the paywall for non-Barron's subscribers)
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Announces Special Distribution of $0.10 per Share
Why Synaptics Is One Analyst’s Top 2021 Pick | Barron's The analyst is from Needham who has a $130PT.
++++
Covid-19 Updates:
Covid remains "under control" in TrumpWorld.
 |
| As of 12/24/20 |
In Trump's America, a person who dies from complications caused by Covid did not die from Covid, so there were zero deaths last week in TrumpWorld.
US coronavirus deaths are projected to reach 567,000 by April, even amid vaccine rollout
The U.K. has identified a new Covid-19 strain that spreads more quickly. Here's what they know
New Covid strain makes UK a global pariah amid travel bans (12/20/20)
I have not seen any evidence that the new strains are more deadly or resistant to the vaccines.
How Trump’s denial and mismanagement led to the covid pandemic’s dark winter - Washington Post; republished at MSN: The inside story of how Trump’s denial, mismanagement and magical thinking led to the pandemic’s dark winter
A person who went to work while sick is likely the cause of two separate Covid-19 outbreaks in Oregon ("One of those outbreaks has resulted in seven deaths, and the other recent outbreak has placed over 300 people/families in quarantine.")
+++
Dictator -Want-To-Be Don:
In a fit of rage and petty vindictiveness, Don the Authoritarian is in a burn the house down on his way out mode.
Part of the Mad King's pique and rage is directed at senate republicans who have refused so far in going along with his effort to cancel the election results.
Heated Oval Office meeting included talk of special counsel, martial law as Trump advisers clash
Fired attorney Sidney Powell is back, advising Trump to chart a scorched-earth course - ABC News
Trump Discussed Naming Sidney Powell as Special Counsel on Election Fraud - The New York Times ("In recent days Mr. Giuliani has sought to have the Department of Homeland Security join the campaign’s efforts to overturn Mr. Trump’s loss in the election. . ." General Flynn was present. "During an appearance on the conservative Newsmax channel this week, Mr. Flynn pushed for Mr. Trump to impose martial law and deploy the military to “rerun” the election. At one point in the meeting on Friday, Mr. Trump asked about that idea.")
Donald wants Pence to unilaterally reject the results in 6 states that Biden was certified as winning when Congress meets on 1/6/2021. Frustrated Trump met with Pence before holiday break
The Constitution provides that the Vice President opens the envelopes containing the certified election results and then the "Votes shall then be counted." Article II, Section 1 There is no leeway in the Constitution for the VP to reject the electors chosen by the certified election results. If there was discretion, the V-P's party would remain in power forever and elections choosing the President and Vice President would no longer be necessary. Dictator-Want-To-Be Don wants Pence to count only the alternate slate of republican electors and to ignore the certified election results in those states.
The Vice President's role on 1/6/21 is just a formality. Gore was the VP when Bush Jr. beat him in 2000. He tabulated the elector votes that resulted in his own loss. Nixon was the V-P when he was beaten in 1960 by Kennedy and he did the same.
Trump downplays impact of hack, questions whether Russia involved | TheHill Donald believes that the media is playing up this major hack event just to hurt him. It is, as always, all about Donald and nothing else.
Delusional Don had this say about the hack:
Is Donald Putin's puppy? There is no direct proof. I agree with Dan Coates, Trump's former Director of National Intelligence and republican senator from Indiana, that the best way to explain Trump's actions and words is by assuming Russia has kompromat on him. Woodward book: Former intel chief Dan Coats believed "Putin had something on Trump" - Axios
In Last Rush, Trump Grants Mining and Energy Firms Access to Public Lands - The New York Times
Donald Trump is still only out for himself Trump is a sociopath. 'Sociopath,' 'clown': 8 unflattering anecdotes from Mary Trump's book; The Psychology of Donald Trump | Psychology Today Over 74+ Americans voted for an lying sociopath with strong authoritarian tendencies who has done more damage to American democracy than any foreign adversary could dream of doing. IMO, those traits are obvious. That needs to be remembered in future elections since those people are not going to change.
Trump Is Losing His Mind - The Atlantic Donald became a sociopath a long time ago IMO. Arguably, he was high functioning sociopath during most of his adult life but that is no longer the case as he has become increasingly detached from reality.
Audit in Michigan County Refutes Dominion Conspiracy Theory - FactCheck.org But facts are irrelevant in Trump's America and are per se false when they contradict a Trumpster reality creation.
Don the Authoritarian has filed another petition before the U.S. Supreme Court requesting that the court nullify Pennsylvania's mail-in ballots:
Trump wants Supreme Court to overturn Pennsylvania election results - POLITICO
Trump pardoned former republican congressmen convicted of federal crimes - The Washington Post The pardons included Duncan Hunter who plead guilty to misuse of campaign funds and Chris Collins who was convicted of securities fraud. Both were strong Trump supporters and were charged while serving in the House. Pardons are simply being handed out like candy to Trump cronies and allies. Hunter was slated to begin his 11 month sentence two weeks after Trump pardoned him. Trump is abusing the pardon authority in a way that demonstrates his corruption IMO and is consistent with my label of him as the All Time Swamp-Creature-In-Chief.
Donald was thinking about ordering Homeland Security to seize voting machines. William Barr: no need for special counsels to investigate election fraud, Hunter Biden - The Washington Post (Breaking with Trump, "Barr said Monday that he saw no basis for the federal government seizing voting machines and that he did not intend to appoint a special counsel to investigate allegations of voter fraud.")
Martial law, conspiracy theories rattle White House as Trump seeks to undo Biden win Republicans have now successfully branded themselves as a dominant strain pro-authoritarian, anti-democracy party.
The ‘Red Slime’ Lawsuit That Could Sink Right-Wing Media - The New York Times Dominion Voting Systems and Smartmatic may file libel cases against FOX, NewsMax, OAN and a number of individuals including Showboat Rudy and Sidney Powell.
Dominion Voting Systems machine company executive sues Trump allies for defamation; Dominion Voting Systems Security Director Files Defamation Suit Against Trump Campaign The defendants include Sidney Powell, the Trump Campaign, Giuliani, Chanel Rion (a "reporter at OAN), the Newsmax and OAN "news" networks, and the "Gateway Pundit".
PolitiFact | How Fox News, Newsmax vote-rigging coverage squares with defamation law
Of all of the people and organizations who have been sued or soon will be, Sidney Powell and Giuliani IMO are the most vulnerable.
Sidney Powell secret witness is Terpsichore Maras-Lindeman-The Washington Post; republished at MSN: Sidney Powell’s secret intelligence contractor witness is a pro-Trump podcaster; Sidney Powell’s secret ‘military intelligence expert,’ key to fraud claims in election lawsuits, never worked in military intelligence - The Washington Post; PolitiFact | Trump lawyer falsely claims voting technology companies were created for changing election results;
Trump threatens 30-day reign of destruction on the way out of office
Trump goes on rampage with pardons, veto threats and Covid denial
Why ‘Pivot Counties’ That Stuck With Trump May Be a Warning for Democrats - The New York Times (of the 206 counties that flipped from Obama to Trump in 2016, Biden won back only 25 of them.)
Trump vetoed the annual defense funding bill that passed Congress with bipartisan super majorities. Trump vetoes defense legislation-CBS News; Trump vetoes $740 billion NDAA defense bill; Trump vetoes defense bill, setting up potential override | TheHill; Trump vetoes $740 billion NDAA defense bill After vetoing the defense appropriation bill for reasons that have nothing to do with defense, and refusing to sign the stimulus bill, Donald left for a vacation at Mar-de-Lago and was last publicly seen playing golf. Trump goes golfing as stimulus, defense spending bills left in the lurch - MarketWatch
Initially, Donald threatened to veto defense funding because he wanted to keep the names of military bases named after confederate generals who fought against the U.S. over 165 years ago. He cited that reason to support his veto in thinly disguised wording. (Quote "provisions that fail to respect our veterans and our military's history.")
After receiving some push back, Donald then decided to add another reason recently. He argued that the defense bill needed to include a totally unrelated provision repealing section 230 of Communications Decency Act. Trump and other republicans are very upset that their fact free conspiracy theories, hate speech, and demonstrably false statements about the election and other matters, viewed as "conservative" speech by them, are being flagged as disputed by Twitter and Facebook.
Trump's veto is just another abuse of presidential power and another example, among thousands, that proves he is unfit to be President.
Historically, Trump's party has only 1 close antecedent in U.S. history IMO and that was the short lived Know Nothing which shared the modern day GOP's exuberant nativist, anti-immigration, xenophobic and demagogic populism traits.
++++
How Fox's Maria Bartiromo went from respected finance reporter to Trump apologist - The Washington Post Fox viewers expect to be told what they want to hear. With Donald receiving 74+ million votes, there is obviously a huge financial incentive for Fox to give them what they want.
++++
I have been using the most recent stock market rally to profitably sell some stocks that had been losers. ARESF is one of those stocks.
1. Eliminated ARESF in Schwab Account-Sold 280 at US$8.51:
Profit Snapshot: +$77.08
I restarted a position too soon after my last elimination.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
I still own shares in my IB account that are priced in CADs.
Dividend: Monthly at C$.0435 effective for the January 2021 payment, up from C$.045.
Part of the total return problem was this REIT's ownership of properties in Canada's oil producing provinces that ultimately led to a dividend slash. The month rate was slashed to C$.045 from C$.09 effective for the November 2018 payment. Distribution History – Artis REIT
Next Ex Dividend: 12/29/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): Artis Real Estate Investment Trust Releases Strong Third Quarter Results, Provides Business Update on the Impact of COVID-19 and Strategic Initiatives and Announces a 3% Distribution Increase
Estimated NAV per unit = C$15.35
Portfolio Occupancy: 91.6%
Sourced from Q3-20 Management's Discussion and Analysis.PDF This document has more comprehensive data than the press release.
Reset Equity Preferred Shares: I currently own 200 shares of AXPRA, a Canadian reset equity preferred stock traded in Toronto. Item # 2.A. Added to AXPRA-Bought 50 at C$17.48 (11/21/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Added to AXPPRA-Bought 50 at C$12.99 (5/16/20 Post) The current coupon is 5.662% paid on a C$25 par value. The coupon resets every 5 year at a 4.06% spread to the 5 year Canadian government bond. The next reset is in September 2022, so the next five year coupon is likely to be lower. To equal the current coupon rate, the five year Canadian bond would have to be at 1.602% on the reset date. The expectation of a lower coupon rate for 5 years will depress the current price.
Canada 5 Year Government Bond Overview | MarketWatch
2. Small Ball:
Baseball analogy-Small ball (baseball)-Wikipedia (bunt, walk, hit by pitch, singles, stealing bases, etc.)
(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain; or has to lower my average cost per share;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved:
Risks are controlled by a variety of techniques including the limitations on dollar exposures to each stock and on each purchase.
Sponsor's website: SRVR | Pacer ETFs
Expense Ratio: .6%
Number of Stocks: Just 24
Top Ten Holdings as of 12/18:
I currently own 1 Crown Castle 3.7% SU Maturing in 2026. Item # 3.C. Bought 1 Crown Castle 3.7% SU Bond Maturing on 6/15/26 at a Total Cost of 96.424 (4/26/18 Post); Bond Detail; Prospectus Supplement
I have in the past owned DLR's common stock and preferred stocks.
Quotes for some of the top 10 holdings:
Crown Castle International Corp. (CCI)
Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR)
With commission free trading, it would be cost effective to duplicate the top ten holdings of a sector ETF and avoid the annual expense ratio hit.
B. Pared CCNE-Sold 5 at $20.61 (highest cost lot this account):
Quote: CNB Financial Corp. (CCNE)
CNB Financial Corporation is a financial holding company with consolidated assets of approximately $4.7 billion. CNB Financial Corporation conducts business primarily through its principal subsidiary, CNB Bank. . . CNB Bank operations include a private banking division, one loan production office, one drive-up office and 44 full-service offices in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New York. CNB Bank’s divisions include ERIEBANK, based in Erie, Pennsylvania, with offices in northwest Pennsylvania and northeast Ohio; FCBank, based in Worthington, Ohio, with offices in central Ohio; and BankOnBuffalo, based in Buffalo, New York, with offices in northern New York. CNB Bank is headquartered in Clearfield, Pennsylvania, with offices in central and north central Pennsylvania.
Profit Snapshot: $26.79 (5 share 11/25 sell only):
Average Cost per share this Account after pare: $14.35 (10 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.17, last raised from $.165 effective for the 2018 third quarter. The $.165 penny rate was a raise from $.16 effective in 2008. CCNE is not a dividend growth stock. The dividend was not cut during the Near Depression period, which is the only positive comment that I have about this history.
Yield at AC this Account: 4.74%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/30/20
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"Excluding after-tax merger costs, prepayment penalties and branch closure costs discussed below, net income was $11.6 million, or $0.70 per diluted share, for the three months ended September 30, 2020, compared to $10.4 million, or $0.68 per diluted share, for the same period in 2019, reflecting increases of $1.2 million, or 11.9%, and $0.02 per diluted share, or 2.9%."
"Efficiency ratio was 67.71% and 62.15% for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2020, respectively. Excluding after-tax merger costs, prepayment penalties and branch closure costs, the adjusted efficiency ratio was 56.54% and 57.66% for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2020, respectively, compared to 58.15% and 59.71% for the comparable periods in 2019."
Tangible Book Value Per Share = $18.58
NPA Ratio: .59% (.65% excluding PPP related assets)
Charge off ratio: .2%
Capital Ratios:
Loan Modification Information: This is still concerning at 5.6% of total loans as of 10/20/20. I decided to pare my inconsequential position in response down to just 10 shares.
Last Eliminated: Item # 3.A. Eliminated Remaining CCNE-Sold 50 at $23.76 (2/17/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $618.1)-Item # 2 Bought 50 CCNE at $11.06 (6/30/2010 Post)
I recently bought a recently issued CCNE preferred stock. Item # 2.A. (10/31/20 Post); CNB Financial Corp. 7.125% Preferred Series A Stock I only bought 5 shares since the price was above par value.
C. Eliminated CCNE Schwab taxable-Sold 6 at $21.24:
Profit Snapshot: +$31.22
Rationale for Selling: (1) strong rally with shares now trading at a premium to net asset value per share; (2) a relatively high percentage of loans with principal and/or interest payments in deferral compared to other banks that I own; (3) relatively poor dividend history and (4) low dividend yield at the sell price compared to other banks that I own at their respective stock prices.
CCNE Trading Profits to Date: $1,085.4
D. Pared BDGE in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 5 at $23.8 (highest cost lot this account):
Quote: Bridge Bancorp Inc. (BDGE)
Profit Snapshot: $24.49 (5 share sell on 11/25 only):
Average Cost after Pare this account: $17.82
Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 ($.96 annually)
The dividend was last raised from $.23 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment. The $.23 per share rate had been in effect since 2005. The only positive about that history is that the rate was not cut during the Near Depression period, remaining at $.23 per share during 2008-2010.
Yield at $17.82 AC = 5.39%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/22/20
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.K. Added to BDGE-Bought 2 at $17.45; 2 at $17.2; 2 at $17.03 and 1 at $16.8 (10/17/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"Excluding merger expenses, adjusted net income was $15.4 million, or $0.77 per diluted share." BDGE is in the process of acquiring Dime Community Bancshares.
"Total remaining loan payment deferrals at October 25, 2020 were $44 million, or 1.0%, of total loans held for investment.".
BDGE Profits to Date: $2,775.77
E. Pared RIGL-Sold 50 at $3.06:
Remaining Shares: 100 at a $1.71 total cost; Item # 5.A. Bought 100 RIGL at $1.71 (10/2/2019 Post)
 |
| As of the Close on 12/24/20 |
Page-27 28 RIGL 10-Q
That drug has been approved by the FDA for treating "adult patients with chronic immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) who have had an insufficient response to a previous treatment. ITP is a rare autoimmune disease where the body’s own immune system attacks and destroys platelets in the blood." Products - Rigel Pharmaceuticals
TAVALISSE is the brand name for fostamatinib. This drug is currently in a Phase 2 trial for the treatment of hospitalized Covid patients. Rigel Announces First Patients Enrolled in NIH/NHLBI-Sponsored Trial of Fostamatinib in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Collaboration with Inova; Rigel Announces Investigator-Sponsored Trial of Fostamatinib in Patients with COVID-19 Pneumonia
License agreements for fostamatinib outside the U.S. are described at pages 18-20 of the 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20
Last Financial Report (9/30/20): Rigel Reports Third Quarter 2020 Financial Results and Provides Business Update I would not anticipate a GAAP profit anytime soon unless the COVID trials prove that fostamatinib is effective in treating hospitalized Covid patients.
Other Recent News:
Rigel Announces Availability of TAVLESSE® (Fostamatinib Disodium Hexahydrate) in Europe (7/9/20)
Only Prior Round-Trip (150 Shares): $109.24
F. Pared CSCO in Fidelity Account-Sold 3 at $42.8 (highest cost lots):
New average cost per share this account: $39.28
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually)
Yield at $39.28 AC = 3.67%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/1/2020
I discussed the second quarter earnings report here: Item # 1.H. (9/13/2020)(contains snapshots of prior trades ($919.37) starting in 2010 and prior to 2020); SEC Filed News Release
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 10/24/20-First Fiscal Quarter): SEC Filed Press Release
My classification of "borderline" contrarian value is based on recent Y-O-Y revenue and E.P.S. declines and the uncertainty as to when sustainable growth will return:
G. Started MO-Bought 5 at $39.79:
Quote: Altria Group Inc
Stock Information as of 12/24/20:
Investment Category: Bond Substitute
5 Year Financials:
The 2019 results were impacted by a charge related to Altria's investment in JUUL. MO vastly overpaid for its 35% ownership interest in JUUL.
The company also overpaid for its U.S. Smokeless Tobacco acquisition in 2009, financing the transaction by incurring $7 billion in new debt with 10% coupons. That acquisition included the Copenhagen and Skoal brands.
Altria has a 10.2% ownership interest in Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A. ADR.
Altria Announces Increased Ownership of Anheuser-Busch InBev (10/21/16); Altria Becomes Significant Shareholder in Anheuser-Busch InBev; Revises 2016 Full-Year Earnings Guidance (10/11/16)
In 2019, Altria acquired a 45% ownership interest in Cronos Group Inc. (CRON), with an option to add another 10%.
Altria also owns the STE Michelle Wine brands.
Cigarette smoking in the U.S. is in a long term secular decline. Altria operates solely in the U.S. Philip Morris International Inc. (MO) owning the brands outside of the U.S.
5 Year Chart: Ugly
Yield at $39.79: 10.49%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/24/20 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
Altria took a $4.5B writedown of its $12.8B JUUL investment in the 2019 3rd quarter. Altria writes down Juul investment by $4.5 billion (10/31/19) A $4.1B writedown occurred in the 2019 4th quarter. Altria Takes $4.1B Writedown on Juul Investment - CFO
Altria has written down its recent $2.8B investment to $1.6B as of 9/30/20. Altria Loss Narrows in 3Q, Writes Down Juul | Morningstar
H. Pared GDO (Fidelity Taxable)-Sold 5 at $18 (part of highest cost lot):
Quote: Western Asset Global Corp Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. (GDO)
This CEF is currently scheduled to liquidate on or about 12/2/2024.
Profit Snapshot: $6.1 (12/1 sell only):
New Average Cost Per Share this account: $15.28
Dividend: Monthly at $.101 per share ($1.212 annually)
Yield at $15.28 AC = 7.93%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 12/22/20
Next Ex Dividend Date: 1/21/2021
Data Date of 12/1/20 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $18.78
Closing Market Price: $18.04
Discount: -3.94%
Sourced: GDO CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab)
Last Elimination: Item # 1.B. Eliminated GDO-Sold 224+ at $16.47-Used Commission Free Trade (3/3/19 Post)(contains prior round trip trade snapshots)
Other Recent Buy Discussion: Item # 2.A. Added 35 GDO at $16.78; 5 at $15.6: 5 at $14.34; 5 at $13.75; 5 at $12.3; 5 at $11.4 (4/11/20 Post)
I. Restarted AKBA-Bought 10 at $3.18; 5 at $3; 5 at 2.9:
Quote: Akebia Therapeutics Inc.
Closing Price AKBA $2.92 -$0.06 -2.01%
Website: Akebia | Pioneering Hypoxia Inducible Factor (HIF) Therapies
"Investment" Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 2.B. Sold 105 AKBA at $6.35(1/2/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $135.66 net); Item # 4.A. Sold 30 AKBA at $15.27 (8/22/17 Post)(profit snapshot $183.03)
AKBA Realized Net Gain to Date: $316.69
As I recall, investors had a negative response to the AKBA's 2018 acquisition of Keryx Pharmaceuticals, which at least gave Akebia an approved drug, Auryxia, to sell. When I discussed that drug after Keryx reported its 2018 second quarter results, Auryxia product sales were reported at $24.1M, up from $14.1M in the 2017 second quarter. "Net product revenue for Auryxia® (ferric citrate) was $34.4 million for the third quarter of 2020 compared with $30.0 million in the third quarter of 2019, an increase of 14.6 percent."
Akebia Therapeutics and Keryx Biopharmaceuticals to Merge, Creating a Fully Integrated Company Focused on the Development and Commercialization of Therapeutics for Patients with Kidney Disease The merger was completed on 12/12/18.
The main problems IMO are the extremely slow process in bringing Akebia's main drug, Vadadustat for the treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease in adult patients, to market; the recent failure of that drug to meet its primary safety endpoint for patients not on dialysis; and the continued stock offerings to finance the ongoing trials. The drug did meet is primary and secondary endpoints for patients on dialysis.
Akebia Therapeutics Announces Pricing of Upsized Public Offering of Common Stock (5/11/20)(11M shares at $12 + standard greenshoe); Akebia Therapeutics Announces Full Exercise of Underwriters' Option to Purchase Additional Shares
Akebia Therapeutics Announces Top-Line Results from its PRO2TECT Global Phase 3 Program of Vadadustat for Treatment of Anemia Due to Chronic Kidney Disease in Adult Patients Not on Dialysis (9/3/20) The stock priced closed at $10 on 9/2 and at $2.65 on 9/3. AKBA Price History Volume skyrocketed to 81.4202M shares on 9/3.
This press release looks like an effort to downplay the safety result in patients who are not on dialysis. Akebia Presents Results from its PRO2TECT Global Phase 3 Program of Vadadustat for the Treatment of Anemia due to Chronic Kidney Disease in Adult Patients Not on Dialysis (10/23/20) ("The newly presented pre-specified analyses of PRO2TECT showed that vadadustat had no clinically meaningful increase in cardiovascular risk in U.S. patients not on dialysis treated to a target hemoglobin range of 10 to 11 g/dL, consistent with U.S. treatment guidelines.") I do not have the qualification to assess the medical importance which is one reason for the LOTTO classification. The announcement did not change the Stock's Jock's opinion about what this company is worth.
That drug was finally approved in Japan. Akebia Therapeutics Announces First Commercial Launch of VAFSEO™ (vadadustat tablets), a New Oral Treatment for Anemia Due to Chronic Kidney Disease, in Japan
The company plans to file a new drug application with the FDA as early as possible in 2021. The NDA would be only for patients suffering from anemia due to CKD that are on dialysis. The question is whether the safety data for patients not on dialysis will negatively impact the FDA decision. Without approval in the U.S., this looks like a $1 stock to me.
The current stock price IMO reflects doubts that the FDA will approve Vadadustat for patients on dialysis. I am betting a few dollars that those doubts are misplaced.
5 Year Chart:
Last "Earnings" Report (Q/E 9/30/20): Akebia Reports Third Quarter 2020 Financial Results and Recent Business Updates
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20 (collaboration agreements summarized starting at page 20)
J. Sold 1 DISCA at $27.55:
Profit Snapshot: +$4.74
New Average Cost Per Share this account: $21.17 (10 shares)
Discovery to launch streaming service in January for $4.99 per month I do not foresee this late entry as being successful.
K. Eliminated DISCA in Schwab Account-Sold 7 at $28.31:
See Item # 1.H. above.
Profit Snapshot: +$45.83
L. Pared CXP-Sold 5 at $14.43 (highest cost lot Fidelity Taxable):
Quote: Columbia Property Trust Inc
Closing Price 12/24: CXP +$14.36 +$0.10 +0.70%
SEC Filed November 2020 Investor Presentation
Portfolio Overview | Columbia Property Trust
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy/Bond Substitute
Profit Snapshot: $8.15 (12/2 sell only)
New Average Cost Per Share this account: $11.56
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share
Columbia Property Trust Declares Fourth Quarter Dividend
Yield at $11.56 AC this account: 7.27%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/30/20
Last Buy Discussion this Account: Item # 1.B. Added to CXP-Bought 10 at $12.12; 10 at $11.57; 5 at $11.27; 5 at $10.9; 5 at $10.5 (9/26/20 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.O. Pared CXP-Sold 15 at $13.96-highest cost lots in Fidelity Account (11/21/20 Post) I discussed the third quarter report in that post and have nothing to add here.
M. Pared OFS in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 20 at $7.2:
Quote: OFS Capital Corp-A BDC
2019 Annual Report (risk factor discussion starts at page 27 and ends at page 55)
Profit Snapshot: $56.8 (12/3 sell only):
Average Cost Remaining Shares this Account: $4
Dividend: Quarterly at $.18 per share ($.72 annually)
The dividend was cut from $.34 to $.17 effective for the 2020 second quarter and then raised by 1 cent effective for the 4th quarter.
Yield at AC of $4 in this account: 18%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/23/20
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.L. Added 5 OFS at $3.97-Fidelity Taxable (11/28/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): OFS Capital Corporation Announces Third Quarter 2020 Financial Results & Increases Quarterly Cash Distribution I discussed the earnings report in a comment.
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments
OFS Trading Profits To Date: $205.44
Other Recent Sell Discussions: Item # 3.B. Sold 10 OFS at $12.04(11/30/19 Post); Item # 4.B. Sold 60 shares at $12 (11/13/19 Post)
N. Pared BRKL-Sold 3 at $12.06 (part of highest cost lot):
Dividend: Quarterly at $.115 per share ($.46 annually)
Brookline Bancorp, Inc Dividend History | Nasdaq
The quarterly penny rate was last raised from $.11 effective for the 2019 4th quarter payment.
Yield at $9.17: 5.02%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/12/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"net income of $18.7 million, or $0.24 per basic and diluted share, for the third quarter of 2020, compared to $19.6 million, or $0.25 per basic and diluted share, for the second quarter of 2020, and $22.6 million, or $0.28 per basic and diluted share, for the third quarter of 2019."
On January 1, 2020, the Company adopted ASU 2016-13 "Financial Instruments-Credit Losses (Topic 326): Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments", commonly referred to as CECL.
O. Eliminated DDD-Sold 15 at $10.67:
Quote: 3D Systems Corp.
Profit: +$71.04 (44.39% return)
I had all of the fun that I could stand with this Lotto.
Website: 3D Printers, Software, Manufacturing & Digital Healthcare
Summary of Businesses: 2019 Annual Report pp. 26-28
3. U.S. Equity Preferred Stocks-Fixed to Floating Rate Non-Cumulative:
A. Bought 10 TECTP at $8.59:
Quote: Tectonic Financial Inc. 9% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Preferred Series B Stock
I may end up regretting coming across this security.
There is almost no volume in this security. The bid/ask spread is usually wide.
Closing Price 12/24/20: TECTP $8.68 -$0.02 -0.23%
The issuer is Tectonic Financial, a private bank holding company based in Texas who has filed its financial results starting with the issuance of this publicly traded preferred stock. SEC Filings; Investor Relations | T Bank
Security: Prospectus
Placement in Capital Structure: Equity Preferred, senior only to common stock.
Par Value: $10
Dividends: Non-Cumulative and qualified
Coupon: Currently at 9%
Current Yield at $8.59 = 10.48%
Last Ex Dividend: Quarterly at $.225 per share on 11/5/20
Maturity: None, potentially perpetual
Issuer Optional Redemption: At par value on or after 5/15/24
Floating Rate: If not redeemed, the coupon will transition from the 9% fixed coupon rate to a floating rate based on a 6.72% spread to the 3 month Libor rate.
Since the Libor rate is not likely to be around in 2024, there is a provision in the prospectus for using an alternative short term rate (pages 168-169).
The largest holder of this preferred stock is the CEF John Hancock Financial Opportunities Fund (BTO) with a 186,240 share position or 12.46% based on its last SEC report. I have owned BTO in the past but do not have a current position.
The common stock is owned by a few individuals. SEC Schedule 13D
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20: 10-Q
 |
| Snapshot Includes 2 Partial Redemptions/$84.4 from the 12/21 |
 |
| 15 Shares Average Cost = $17.26/ Yield at 11.95% |
 |
| 20 Shares Average Cost = $22.05/ Yield at 9.35% |
