Economy:
Retail sales July 2021 worse-than-expected 1.1% in July as rising Covid fears hit consumers
Consumer sentiment measure falls to pandemic-era low, sees one of largest drops on record
Chart: University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment-St. Louis Fed
There's growing support within the Fed to announce the tapering of bond purchases in September
More Bad News For Chinese Stocks: China's Slowdown Could Continue. | Barron's
Biden is making more companies pay Trump’s China tariffs - The Washington Post Biden did not extend tariff exclusions that had previously existed for some companies.
One-third of Americans couldn’t cover $2,000 before the pandemic Worse now.
Mayo Clinic: Covid breakthrough risk may be much lower with Moderna vaccine than Pfizer
More unvaccinated people blame the delta variant on fully vaccinated people rather than themselves. Poll: More unvaccinated Americans blame vaccinated Americans for the Delta surge than blame themselves
Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) Blames Black Community, Democrats For COVID Spread
The NYT has the new infection number yesterday at 143,827 with 911 new deaths, an increase of 108% using a 14 rolling average.
61% of Americans paid no federal income taxes in 2020, Tax Policy Center says; The COVID-19 Pandemic Drove A Huge, But Temporary, Increase in Households That Did Not Pay Federal Income Tax | Tax Policy Center
Philly Fed factory index falls for fourth straight month amid rising prices - MarketWatch (the index was reported at 19.4. Any number above zero indicates expansion. The prices paid index rose to 71.2 with the prices received index rising to the highest level since May 1974. August 2021 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
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Markets and Market Commentary:
Is the Market Still Overvalued? - dshort - Advisor Perspectives (8/6/21) and the contrary view at An Issue Holding Back Investors: The Erroneous Belief That The Stock Market Is Overvalued
Crypto is ‘95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,’ says Fed’s Neel Kashkari - MarketWatch
Jim Cramer says the rally in drug stocks is 'far from over'
China passes key data protection law as regulatory scrutiny increases
Stock Market Tumbles Amid Covid, Growth, Fed Triple Whammy | Barron's
What Will It Take to Get Warren Buffett to Buy Stocks? | Barron's He was criticized for not buying with gusto when stocks cratered starting in March 2020.
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Earnings Reports Owned Stocks:
AbbVie (ABBV) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $3.11 with consensus at $3.09 per Fidelity; updated "GAAP diluted EPS guidance for the full-year 2021 from $7.27 to $7.47 to $6.04 to $6.14. AbbVie is raising its adjusted diluted EPS for the full-year 2021 from $12.37 to $12.57 to $12.52 to $12.62. The company's 2021 adjusted diluted EPS guidance excludes $6.48 per share of intangible asset amortization expense, non-cash charges for contingent consideration adjustments and other specified items"; total revenues of $13.959B in 2nd quarter, up from 33.9% from the 2020 second quarter; Humira generated $6.12B of revenues, Market gears up for biosimilar boom in 2023 as Humira exclusivity draws to a close)
Amgen (AMGN) Reports Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results (Non-GAAP net income of $2.522B or $4.38 per share with the consensus at $4.091 per Fidelity; total revenue at $6.526B, up 5% Y-O-Y; "cumulative decrease in diagnoses over the course of the pandemic has suppressed the volume of new patients starting treatment, which we expect to continue to impact our business during the second half of the year."; generated $1.7B in free cash flow; repurchased 6.5M shares of common stock during the quarter at a cost of $1.6B)
Artis Real Estate Investment Trust Releases Second Quarter Results (FFO per unit of C$0.34; AFFO per unit of C$0.25; "a conservative AFFO payout ratio of 60.0% for the second quarter of 2021, compared to 51.9% for the second quarter of 2020."; portfolio occupancy of 90.3%; NAV per unit to C$16.78 at June 30, 2021, compared to C$15.03 at December 31, 2020.)
Black Hills Corp. (BKH) Reports Second Quarter 2021 Results (Net income of $25.2M or $.40 per share, with the consensus at $.385 per Fidelity and up from $.33 in the 2020 second quarter; Board approved quarterly dividend of $.565 per share; E.P.S. for the first 6 months in 2021 = $1.93; reaffirms 2021 E.P.S. guidance between $3.8 to $4; reaffirmed 2022 E.P.S. guidance between $3.95 and $4.15 based on disclosed assumptions contained in the press release)
Chemours (CC) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (Non-GAAP net income of $205 with E.P.S. at $1.20; consensus at $.945; GAAP E.P.S. = $.39; the most important adjustment is $195M add back for charges related to PFAS; net sales = $1.7B, up 51%; free cash flow = $189M;Chemours Announces Pricing of Private Offering of $650 Million Aggregate Principal Amount of 4.625% Senior Unsecured Notes Due 2029
Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. Reports 2nd Q Results (GAAP E.P.S. of $1.19; Non-GAAP at $.94 with consensus at $1 per Fidelity; Adjusted NIM = 3.23%, up from 2.89% in the 2020 second quarter; Adjusted Efficiency ratio = 47.5%; Coverage Ratio = 327.94%; NPL Ratio = .3%; loan to deposit ratio = 86.2%; adjusted ROA = 1.28%; adjusted ROE = 13.76%; adjusted ROTE = 17.48%; tangible book value per share = $22.41; total capital ratio = 14.26%)
Exxon (XOM) SEC Filed Press Release (net income of $4.6B; E.P.S. = $1.10, with the consensus at $.979 per Fidelity; "Cash flow from operating activities of $9.7 billion funded the dividend, capital investments and debt reduction"; "Oil-equivalent production in the second quarter was 3.6 million barrels per day, down 2% from the second quarter of 2020.")
Financial Institutions (FISI) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (E.P.S. = $1.25 with the consensus at $.86 and up from $.67 in the 2020 second quarter; the "increase in quarterly net income was driven by a $4.6 million benefit for credit losses as compared to a provision of $3.7 million in the second quarter of 2020"; NIM = 3.06%, down from 3.23% in the 2020 second quarter; NPL Ratio = .18%; NPA Ratio = .14%; Coverage Ratio = 699%; other ratios impacted by the $4.6M reversal of credit loss reserves, e.g. ROTE at 21.28%)
Gilead (GILD) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (Non-GAAP E.P.S. of $1.87 with consensus at $1.734 per Fidelity; revenues = $6.152B, up from $5.067B in the 2020 second quarter; $7.4 billion of cash, cash equivalents and marketable debt securities as of 6/30/21; $2.3 billion in operating cash flow; 2021 forecast: "product sales between $24.4 billion and $25.0 billion, compared to $23.7 billion and $25.1 billion previously" and "Non-GAAP earnings per share between $6.90 and $7.25, compared to $6.75 to $7.45 previously." The stock price has been trending up starting on 5/3/21, possibly due to a recalibration of Remdesivir sales, )
Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (net income of $22.2M or $.50 which includes 1 cent per share of costs associated with an acquisition of branches; consensus at $.436 per Fidelity; NIM 3.14%, down from 3.47% in the 2020 second quarter; adjusted efficiency ratio = 57.45%; adjusted ROA and ROE at 1.46% and 12.61% respectively; NPL Ratio .63%; Charge off ratio = 0%; tangible book value per share = $12.24; consolidated total capital ratio = 16.65% with bank only at 13.59%)
Incyte (INCY) SEC Filed Press Release (Non-GAAP net income of $178.833M or $.80 per share with the consensus at $.742 per Fidelity; revenues = $696M, up 17% from 2020 second quarter; Jakafi revenues accounted for $529M of the revenues; the main near term issue remains whether the FDA will approve ruxolitinib cream for atopic dermatitis with a PDUFA date of 9/21/21, a failure to approve will be a major blow for the company and the stock price)
Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) Announces 2021 Second Quarter Results (Non-GAAP E.P.S = $.70 with consensus at $.703 per Fidelity; raises bottom end of 2021 non-GAAP E.P.S. guidance to $3.4 to $3.55; revenues = $1.874B. The price has been trending up starting on 7/14/21 possibly in response to the decline in interest rates- 2021 Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates)
Stellus Capital Investment Corporation (SCM) Reports Results for its Second Fiscal Quarter Ended June 30, 2021 and 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/21 with list of investments starting at page 6 (Net investment income per share = $.28 with core NII at $.30; Net asset value per share at $14.07; "On July 20, 2021, our Board declared a regular monthly dividend of $0.09 per share for each of July, August and September for an aggregate of $0.27 per share for the quarter, which is an increase of $0.02 for the quarter as compared to the prior quarter. In addition, the board declared a supplemental dividend of $0.01 for each of the months of July, August and September.")
Suncor Energy (SU) reports second quarter 2021 results (FFO at C$1.57 per share; operating income per share at C$.48 per share; operating net income at C$722M, reported income higher at C$868M which includes special item; "total upstream production increased to 699,700 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in the second quarter of 2021, compared to 655,500 boe/d in the prior year quarter, due to strong Oil Sands operations production including record In Situ volumes, partially offset by the impact of planned turnaround maintenance at Syncrude."; repurchased 23M shares during the quarter or about 1.5% of the outstanding shares as of 1/31/21; Board "approved an increase to the company’s share repurchase program to approximately 5% of the company’s outstanding common shares as at January 31, 2021.") I would agree with SU being aggressive in repurchasing shares at or near the current price.
TriplePoint Venture Capital Growth BDC (TPVG) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (net investment income per share = $.30 with consensus at $.333 per Fidelity; NII per share of $.38 in the 2020 second quarter; net asset value per share of $13.03; "Subsequent to the end of the second quarter of 2021, TPVG portfolio company Revolut Ltd announced the closing of an $800 million private equity raise at a $33 billion valuation. Based on this event, TPVG preliminarily estimates that the combined fair value range of its equity and warrant investments in Revolut Ltd is approximately $10 million to $20 million, up from a combined fair value of $1.8 million at June 30, 2021, with the final fair value subject to completion of TPVG’s quarterly valuation process for the third quarter."; "portfolio companies Bird Rides, Inc., Enjoy, Inc., Inspirato LLC and Sonder, Inc. announced plans to go public through SPAC mergers and Groop Internet Platform, Inc. (d/b/a Talkspace) closed its SPAC merger"; Board declared regular quarterly dividend of $.36 per share) The potential capital gains potential in TPVG's portfolio keeps me in the stock even though I view the decline in NII per share as worrisome.
West Bancorporation (WTBA) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and 10-Q (Net income of $13.2M and E.P.S. of $.79 with the consensus at $.62 per Fidelity; NIM = 2.99%, down from 3.27% in the 2020 second quarter; Efficiency Ratio = 41.11%; ROA = 1.65%; ROE = 22.2%; Charge off ratio = .01%; NPL Ratio = .65%; NPA Ratio = .45%; Texas Ratio = 5.24%; Dividend Payout Ratio = 30.01%; total capital ratio =11.32%)
W.P. Carey (WPC) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (AFFO per diluted share = $1.27, up 11.4% from the 2020 second quarter; "Revenues, including reimbursable costs, for the 2021 second quarter totaled $319.7 million, up 10.1% from $290.5 million for the 2020 second quarter"; "raised and narrowed its guidance range for the 2021 full year and currently expects to report total AFFO of between $4.94 and $5.02 per diluted share"; "received 99% of contractual base rent that was due in the 2021 second quarter"; as of 6/30, WPC's net lease portfolio consisted of 1,286 properties with 150M square feet leased to 350 tenants with an average weighted lease term of 10.8 years)
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Fox News' Tucker Carlson blames Taliban gains on 'grotesque' gender studies | The Week
A majority of U.S. voters learned nothing useful or appropriate from the Vietnam War experience.
Opposition to that war was not the "liberal" position but the only sensible one when measuring a national security objective against the costs in lives and treasure and the likelihood of success.
Does it make any difference whatsoever to U.S. national security now that Vietnam is not a western democracy but does have a stock market? VNINDEX Quote - Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index - Bloomberg Markets
Based on the commentary that I am hearing now, particularly from Republicans, nothing much will be learned by a majority of American voters from the Afghan War experience either. We are apparently doomed to repeat these costly mistakes forever.
The Taliban was severely punished in 2001-2002 with airstrikes and loss of territory. That should have ended the matter for the U.S. with a warning about future actions. It was not the Taliban who carried out the 9/11 attacks but Bin Laden and his associates who had been given safe harbor in that country.
The inevitable result in Afghanistan, which just happened with more speed than anticipated by the U.S. military and intelligence agencies, has been the obvious one for almost 20 years but the political dynamics in the U.S. required that money and lives had to be lost in a futile effort to turn Afghanistan, a perpetually failed state, into a western democracy capable of defending itself from the Taliban. The same result happened swiftly in Vietnam.
The U.S. would have had to stay in Afghanistan until the end of days, losing soldiers and other Americans every year, as well as spending hundreds of billions in economic and military aid, to prevent a total Taliban takeover.
It is only a question of time until the next Vietnam or Afghanistan is added to American history.
While Biden can be criticized for the sloppy final withdrawal, and the failure to evacuate Afghans who assisted the U.S. during the war years before announcing the withdrawal, what is not discussed by the critics are the number of civilians including children who died as a result of this war, including those killed by U.S. airstrikes. The number, which will never be known with any certainty, is probably over 100,000.
The question to be asked is why did 3 U.S. Presidents (Bush, Obama and Trump) spend 20 years fighting in Afghanistan.
Trump Hopes No One Remembers He Pushed for a Full Afghanistan Withdrawal in June with no conditions- Vanity Fair Donald deleted this post after saying Biden needed to resign in disgrace:
I do not see the events in Afghanistan having any negative impact on stocks. It is a positive that the U.S. will quit spending money supporting the government.
Full List of 16 Republicans Who Voted Against Visas for Afghans Who Helped U.S. Troops
Texas Covid: Abbott deploys 2,500 out-of-state medical workers as younger patients crowd hospitals
Texas requests five mortuary trailers during Covid-19 surge (8/17/21)
Texas Gov. Abbott, who banned mask and vaccine mandates, tests positive for Covid
Opinion by Michael Gerson (R) | Govs. DeSantis and Abbott, in denial and risking lives, have betrayed the public trust - The Washington Post ("Their actions will lead, directly and predictably, to deaths in their states. This constitutes a betrayal of public trust so grave — a violation of moral responsibilities so depraved — that I am not sure there is a word for it. Selling the lives of your fellow citizens to a foreign power is treason. What is the proper description of selling the lives of your fellow citizens to a crazed political interest group?")
Election Officials Are Being Terrorized Over Trump’s Lies | Vanity Fair Trumpster intimidation of election officials is only in its infancy.
FBI Probing Claims Republican Official Leaked Election Data to QAnon Believers The MyPillow guy, Mike Lindell, is reportedly hiding this election officials from authorities. Mike Lindell Is Hiding an Alleged Election Data Leaker Under FBI Probe; Mesa County Clerk Tina Peters drank the snake oil peddled by Mike Lindell
Giuliani, Bannon, Flynn, Lindell pushed pro-Trump election lies at Guo Wengui party
Donald Trump Apparently Won’t Encourage People to Get Vaccinated Because It Would Be Doing Biden a “Favor” | Vanity Fair Trump is a demagogic psychopath which is an integral part of his appeal IMO.
A Trump supporter claimed to have a bomb that forced the evacuation of several building near the capitol. Suspect who claimed to have a bomb near US Capitol has surrendered Representative Mo Brooks (R-AL), who may be the next Senator from that state since he channels the inner Donald so well, felt a need to justify what this guy did yesterday:
After DC bomb scare, Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) sympathetic to 'citizenry anger' Brooks was one of the speakers who got the insurrentionoists riled shortly before the Republican attack on the nation's Capitol. He told the crowd to starting kicking ass. Remember that Alabama almost elected Roy Moore to the Senate. Roy Moore Urged to Resign after Report of Relationships with Teens | Vanity Fair; Watch Sacha Baron Cohen Trick Roy Moore Into 'Pedophile Detector Test' - Rolling Stone; MOORE et al v. COHEN et al, Docket No. 1:19-cv-04977 (S.D.N.Y. May 29, 2019), Court Docket
Ron DeSantis and the Florida Supreme Court may hand the House to Republicans. America's anti-democracy party will gerrymander congressional districts to maintain power, recognizing that suppressing turnout by eligible voters who will vote the wrong way may not be enough to insure victory. A new favorite tactic is to authorize republican state legislators to interfere in the vote counting process. Georgia is currently exploring whether to divest Fulton County election officials from election oversight and to grant Republicans the right to count votes in that democrat stronghold.
Bodybuilder Trump Fan Photographed Dragging Officer During Capitol Riot Arrested; Logan James Barnhart, Ronald Colton McAbee Charged for Jan. 6 Even though those arrested in the Republican attack on the nation's Capitol have a long history of supporting Donald, this is just a ruse in TrumpWorld. They were Antifa followers disguised as Trumpsters on 1/6 and had been only pretending to be Trumpsters for years in order to discredit Donald that day. And if you have trouble believing that, the attack was really just a peaceful tourist visit.
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1. Pared SJR-Sold 70 out of 136 at US$29.13-highest cost lots:
Quote: Shaw Communications Inc. Cl B NV
Closing Price 8/19/21: SJR $28.51 -$0.38 -1.32%
As I mentioned earlier, Shaw is in the process of being acquired by Rogers Communications for C$40.5 in cash. Rogers and Shaw to come together in $26 billion transaction, creating new jobs and investment in Western Canada and accelerating Canada’s 5G rollout
It is not a slam dunk that the Canadian regulatory authority will allow this merger to happen. SJR closed at $19.17 on the last trading day prior to this 3/15/21 announcement. SJR Historical Prices SJR shares had been trending higher after closing at $17.1 on 2/26/21, suggesting the possibility that word had leaked out about the pending acquisition.
If the transaction falls through, SJR shares will IMO return to prices prevailing before the announcement.
Profit Snapshot: $666.58 (8/2/21 Sale Only)
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| Total 2021 Gain this account at $727.69 |
The earlier sale this year included only shares purchased with the monthly dividend.
Average Cost Per Share Before Pare= $18.44
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| Snapshot Intraday 8/2 Before Pare |
Average Cost Per Share After Pare = $17.19
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| Snapshot Intraday after Pare |
Dividend: Monthly at C$.09875 per share (C$1.185 annually)
Assuming a .8 CAD/USD exchange rate, the annual dividend would be about US$.948 which produces a 5.51% dividend yield at a constant average cost per share of $17.19.
For shares owned in my Roth IRA accounts, Canada did not withhold a tax.
Last Earnings Report (Fiscal Quarter Ending 5/31/21): Shaw Announces Third Quarter and Year-to-Date Fiscal 2021
Other Trading Profits:
Multiple Small Ball trades in my Vanguard Roth IRA Account: +$229.92
Fidelity Roth IRA:
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| 2021 SJR 22+ shares +$199.25 RI |
Fidelity Taxable:
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| 2019 SJR 50 Shares +$34.66 |
SJR Realized Gains to Date: +$1,191.52
2. Added 95 WMB at $24.98; 5 at $23.80-Schwab Taxable:
History this Account:
Quote: Williams Cos.
Closing Price 8/19/21: WMB $23.89 -$0.15 -0.62%
The price has been sliding some recently, probably in reaction to the decline in energy prices.
"Williams owns and operates more than 30,000 miles of pipelines system wide – including Transco, the nation’s largest volume and fastest growing pipeline – and handles approximately 30 percent of the natural gas in the United States that is used every day for clean-power generation, heating, and industrial use."
WMB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Average Cost per share-Schwab Account: $24.86 (105 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.41 per share ($1.64 annually), last raised from $.40 effective for the 2021 first quarter payment.
Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB) Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at AC = 6.6%
Next Ex dividend: 9/9/21
Last Discussed: Item # 1.L. Bought 5 WMB at $23.58-Fidelity Account (4/30/21 Post)
Recent Material News: Williams Announces Agreement on Deepwater Whale Project
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release
net income of $304 million, or $0.25 per diluted share (EPS)
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.27
"Available funds from operations (AFFO) of $919 million – up $47 million or 5% from 2Q 2020"
"cash flow from operations (CFFO) of $1.1 billion – down $86 million or 8% from 2Q 2020; however, decline was due to working capital fluctuations"
EBITDA = $1.317B, above consensus mean of $1.306B
Dividend coverage ratio = 1.85 x
"company expects 2021 Adjusted EBITDA at the higher end of the previously increased guidance range of $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion and Available Funds from Operations between $3.7 billion and $3.9 billion. Moreover, the leverage ratio is expected to be less than the 4.2x midpoint for year-end 2021; growth capex is reaffirmed at $1 billion to $1.2 billion. Importantly, Williams expects to generate positive free cash flow (after capital expenditures and dividends), allowing it to retain financial flexibility."
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Credit Suisse (8/2/21): Outperform with a $29 PT
Morningstar (8/6/21): 4 stars with a fair value price of $28 (considers Transco pipeline that runs from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast to be a wide moat asset; has a favorable opinion on growth prospects including the Deepwater Whale project)
S & P (8/4/21): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $24
Argus (8/5/21): Buy with a $30 PT.
Building new pipelines has become difficult. In 2020 WMB took a $354M impairment charge after canceling the Constitution pipeline project due to strong political and environmental opposition.
SU Bonds rated Baa3 Moody's/BBB S & P, see e.g. FINRA Page for WMB 3.5% SU Maturing in 2030
Fitch at BBB. Williams Companies, Inc. (The) Credit Ratings-Fitch Ratings; Fitch Rates Williams Companies Proposed Senior Unsecured Notes 'BBB' (2/25/2021)
Maximum Total Position-Taxable Accounts: 300 shares
Current Position Taxable Accounts only: 125
3. Small Ball:
Baseball analogy-Small ball (baseball)-Wikipedia
The underlying rationale for the small ball trading strategy is risk mitigation in what I view as a dicey stock market whose parabolic rise has been fueled by (1) unprecedented money creation; (2) central bank suppression of interest rates far below the inflation rate through extraordinarily abnormal monetary policies continued now for almost 13 years; (3) extreme levels of U.S. government deficit spending, and (4) spending rapidly increasing amounts of borrowed money by U.S. households and corporations.
It is only a question of time until those stimulus measures will no longer be available or will have to be reduced to a level that will not be sufficient to move the needle. Until that becomes apparent, I will continue to maintain a relatively low stock allocation, focused primarily on income generation and some harvested capital gains.
(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain; or has to lower my average cost per share;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission-free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved;
The corollary is to buy the dips, particularly during extreme volatility events that would be associated with major declines in stocks.
Another aspect is selling fractional shares bought with dividends in order to harvest the original dividend amount plus a small profit on the shares. I am doing that regularly now, having turned off the dividend reinvestment option in virtually all stocks that I own.
The primary known threats to the stock market are inflation, valuations and a renewed surge in the pandemic that materially disrupts the economy. The primary erroneous assumption is that the extraordinary stimulus measures outlined above can continue indefinitely or that the economy will experience robust growth when they have to be withdrawn.
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I have been drawing down my stock allocation some in part by eliminating insignificant stock ETF positions including the ones noted below in Items A, B, C and D.
Quote: iShares Edge MSCI International Quality Factor ETF Overview
Sponsor's Website: iShares Edge MSCI International Quality Factor ETF
Expense Ratio = .30%
Profit Snapshots: +$61.51
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Dividends are paid semi-annually in June and December.
B. Sold 10 INTF at $30.18:
Quote: INTF | iShares Edge MSCI Multifactor Intl ETF Overview
Expense Ratio: .30%
Sponsor's Website: iShares Edge MSCI Multifactor International ETF ("Efficient access to a portfolio of global developed market large- and mid-cap stocks (ex U.S.) based on an index that focuses on four proven drivers of return: financially healthy firms, stocks that are inexpensive, smaller companies and trending stocks.")
Profit Snapshot: +$71.22
Last Discussed: Item # 1.G. Bought 5 INTF at $23.32; 5 at $22.81(7/18/20 Post)
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Last Ex Dividend: 6/10/21
C. Eliminated FNCL-Sold 5 at $51.98:
Profit Snapshot: $86.18 (7/27/21 sale only)
Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.I. Added 1 FNCL at $33.17 (10/17/20 Post); Item # 1.L. Restarted FNCL-Bought 5 at $35.28, 1 at $34.71 (9/19/20 Post)
Sell Discussion: Item #1.I. Sold 2 FNCL at $51.91(7/23/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $33.25); Item # 4.F. Sold 50 FNCL at $34.47 (2/10/2017 Post)(profit Snapshot = $278.53); Item # 2 Sold 60 FNCL at $28.75 (1/6/2015 Post)(profit snapshot = $135.71)
FNCL Realized Gains to Date = $533.67
D. Eliminated VFH-Sold 3 at $89.72:
Quote: Vanguard Financials ETF Overview
Sponsor's Website: VFH-Vanguard Financials ETF
Expense Ratio: .10%
Profit Snapshot: +$89.68
Last Discussed: Item # 1.G. Restarted VFH-Bought 2 at $60.79; 1 at $57.93 (9/26/20 Post) That posts contains 2 snapshots of round-trip trades that were not discussed totalling +$143.84.
Prior Sell Discussions: The largest gain to date was a 100 share lot sold in 2011. Item # 2 Sold 100 of the ETF VFH at 34.88 (2/27/11 Post)(profit snapshot = $403.28); Item # 1 Sold 50 VFH at $33.56 (10/18/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $119.97); Item # 2 Sold 50 VFH at $31.05 (2/14/12)(profit snapshot = $92.47)
VFH Realized Gains to date: $849.24
E. Eliminated NVO in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 4 at $91.23:
Quote: Novo Nordisk A/S ADR
Closing Price 8/19/21: NVO $105.61 +$1.60 +1.54%
I sold these shares too soon. I currently own 6 more.
Ordinary Shares Traded in Danish Krone: Novo Nordisk A/S Series B (Denmark: OMX)
1 ADR - 1 Ordinary Share
DKK / USD Currency Chart. Danish Krone to US Dollar Rates
Website: Novo Nordisk; Our medicines; R&D pipeline
NVO Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: +$76.48
Last Discussed: Item # 1.E. Bought 1 NVO at $71.3; 1 at $70.3; 1 at $68.9; 1 at $68.3-Fidelity Account (3/20/21 Post) I still own those shares.
I have been discussing this stock primarily in comments.
The major catalyst occurring since my March 2021 discussion was the FDA's approval of NVO weight loss drug which has been given the brand name Wegovy. FDA Approves New Drug Treatment for Chronic Weight Management, First Since 2014 | FDA (6/4/21) This drug will be a blockbuster (assuming no side effects emerge that requires the drug to be withdrawn and none are currently expected). NVO announced Wegovy product shortages in late July. Product Supply Update
Dividend: Semi-Annually. The last dividend was DKK3.5 per share.
Last Ex Dividend: 8/16/21, last Monday.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release
NVO only had a few days of Wegovy revenues during the second quarter.
Net Profit at DKK 5.26 per share, up 16% Y-O-Y
2nd quarter product sales:
2021 Outlook:
F. Pared DEA in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 10 at $22.92:
Quote: Easterly Government Properties Inc.
Closing Price 8/19/21: DEA $21.75 +$0.03 +0.14%
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.A. Bought 15 DEA at $20.61; 5 at $20.03 (5/23/21 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$3.79
Subsequent to this sale, DEA had a stock offering that temporarily nicked the price some. Easterly Government Properties Announces Pricing of Forward Common Stock Offering; Final Prospectus
DEA is discussed in this recent article: 3 No-Brainer Dividend Stocks to Buy Right Now | The Motley Fool
New AC this Account: $20.86 (51+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 7/30/21 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $21.13.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.265 per share ($1.05 annually), raised from $.26 effective for the 2021 third quarter payment.
Easterly Government Properties (DEA) Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at New AC of $20.86 this account: 5.03%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/11/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release
FFO per share = $.33
Adjusted FFO per share = $.31
CAD per share = $.245 (maintenance expenditures which are deducted from FFO to arrive at CAD increased to $3.762M from $1.646M in the 2020 second quarter)
Quarterly Dividend = $.265
2021 Guidance:
G. Restarted BZH -Bought 5 at $17.52:
Quote: Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH)
BZH Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
Last Elimination: Item # 3.L. Sold 5 BZH at $23.05 (6/4/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $50.49)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. Restarted BZH-Bought 5 at $12.95 (11/21/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release
This is for the fiscal third quarter.
Net income from continuing operations = $37.1M
E.P.S. from continuing operations = $1.22, up from $.51
Consensus at $.90 per Fidelity
New Orders = 1,199 homes
Backlog = 3,124 homes valued at $1.3456B
Unrestricted Cash as of 6/30/21 = $358.3M
H. Bought 2 D at $75.65; 1 at $75.19; 2 at $74.75-Vanguard Taxable:
Quote: Dominion Energy Inc
Closing Price 8/19/21: D $79.06 +$1.08 +1.38%
Dominion Energy Inc Profile | Reuters (component of the S & P 500)
Investor Relations | Dominion Energy
Investment Category: Bond Substitute
For most stocks so characterized, the goal is to earn an annual total return at least 2% greater than the dividends paid. The 2% is viewed as the partial compensation for taking on the equity risk that is not present when owning bonds. I am also compensated for the equity risk when the company raises its dividend which of course does not happen for fixed coupon bonds.
For example, I own 10 Virginia Electric 3.45% SU bonds that mature on 9/1/22:
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| As of close on 8/17/21 |
Virginia Electric, wholly owned by Dominion, is the largest electric utility operating in Virginia.
There is no doubt that I will paid $10K when the bonds mature, more if the issuer elects to redeem early.
I can not say for certain that Dominion's common stock can be sold at a price equal to my cost basis or at a 2% annual profit. I believe that will happen but the level of certainty is not the same as with the bond issued by its subsidiary. So, while I view the stock as a Bond Substitute, there is still equity risk for which a profoundly conservative investor focused on capital preservation needs compensation.
Last Discussion: Item # 3.E. Pared D-Sold 2 at $80.23, 2 at $80.24 (5/14/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $41.52). I discussed the first quarter earnings report in that post.
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.E. Restarted D-Bought 4 at an AC of $71.64 (4/1/2021 Post); Item # 1.D. Added 1 D at $73.8, 1 at $71.96; 1 at $71; 1 at $68.53; 1 at $68 and 1 at $60.6 (4/18/20 Post); Item # 1.D. Added 1 D at $73.8, 1 at $71.96; 1 at $71; 1 at $68.53; 1 at $68 and 1 at $60.6 (4/18/20 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.63 per share ($2.52 annually)
Next Ex Dividend: 9/2/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): Dominion Energy (D) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.76 with consensus at $.76;
Guided 3rd quarter to non-GAAP E.P.S. between $95-$1.10;
Affirmed "its full-year 2021 operating earnings guidance range of $3.70 to $4.00 per share.";
Revenues = $3.038B
Most Recent Bond Offering (August 2021): $1 Billion 2.25% SU Notes Maturing in 2031
Credit Ratings:
Credit Rating Summary | Dominion Energy
The SU bonds issuer by the Dominion Energy wholly owned subsidiary, Virginia Electric Power, have higher credit ratings. Fitch Rated at A-
2020 Sell Discussions: Item # 1.D. Eliminated D-Sold 3 at $74.04 (8/8/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $24.97); Item #1.D. Sold 13 D at $78.17 (6/20/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $51.81)
Maximum Position All Accounts: 50 shares
Current position all Taxable Accounts: 11+ shares (dividend reinvestment turned off)
I. Bought 10 HOPE at $13.35-Vanguard Taxable:
Quote: Hope Bancorp Inc.
Closing Price 8/19/21: HOPE $13.61 -$0.09 -0.66%
"Hope Bancorp, Inc. is the holding company of Bank of Hope, the first and only super regional Korean-American bank in the United States with $17.47 billion in total assets as of June 30, 2021. Headquartered in Los Angeles and serving a multi-ethnic population of customers across the nation, Bank of Hope operates 53 full-service branches in California, Washington, Texas, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Virginia and Alabama. The Bank also operates SBA loan production offices in Seattle, Denver, Dallas, Atlanta, Portland, Oregon, New York City, Northern California and Houston; commercial loan production offices in Northern California and Seattle; residential mortgage loan production offices in Southern California; and a representative office in Seoul, Korea."
HOPE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (relatively flat growth predicted out through 2023 with consensus E.P.S. at $1.61 this year; $1.54 in 2022; and $1.52 in 2023)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share ($.56 annually), last raised from $.13 effective for the 2018 second quarter.
Hope Bancorp, Inc. Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at $13.35: 4.19%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/29/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): Hope Bancorp (HOPE) Reports 2021 Second Quarter Financial Results
Net income of $53.8M or $.43 per share;
Consensus at $.382 per share per Fidelity;
NIM = 3.11%, up from 2.79%;
Efficiency ratio = 53.12%, up from 55.27% in the 2020 second quarter;
ROA= 1.25%;
ROE 10.41%
ROTE =13.5%;
Charge off ratio = .35%;
Coverage Ratio = 113.36%;
NPL Ratio = 1.24% (high);
Total risk based capital ratio = 13.16%
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 3.N. Pared HOPE-Sold 17+ at $15.59 (6/4/21 Post); Item # 1.H. Pared HOPE in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 22 at $15.52 and 14 at $15.96 (4/1/21 Post)
J. Started CXP in Schwab Taxable-Bought 10 at $16:
Quote: Columbia Property Trust Inc
Closing Price 8/19/21: CXP $17.04 +$0.54 +3.27%
Portfolio Overview | Columbia Property Trust
Last Discussion: Item # 1.H. Pared CXP in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $14.96; 1.801 at $17.41 (3/20/21 Post) The current position in this account is 49 shares, see item # 3.I. below where I discuss eliminating my remaining shares purchased with dividends.
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. Added to CXP-Bought 10 at $12.12; 10 at $11.57; 5 at $11.27; 5 at $10.9; 5 at $10.5 (9/26/20 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share
Columbia Property Trust- Dividends
Yield at $16 = 5.25%
Next Ex Dividend: 8/31/21
Columbia Property Trust Declares Third Quarter Dividend
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): SEC Filing
To arrive at AFFO, a major deduction from FFO is a $6.454M "strategic review" expense item:
"For the three months ended June 30, 2021, we incurred approximately $6.5 million of strategic review costs related to a proxy contest, which was withdrawn in late April, and an ongoing process to review strategic alternatives for the Company. Future strategic review costs are expected to vary based on the duration and results of the strategic review process." 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/21 at page 41 While the results of that strategic review are not knowable now, it is possible that the company will end up being acquired by a larger entity.
"As of June 30, 2021, the operating properties in our portfolio were 93.5% leased, with 7.9% of our leases scheduled to expire over the next 12 months." P. 35, 10-Q
K. Pared CXP in Fidelity Taxable-Sold Remaining Shares (1.875) purchased with dividends at $16.44:
Profit Snapshot: +$8.99 (8/17/21 sale only)
Average Cost per share this account = $11.48 (49 Shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 8/17/21 after pare |
L. Added to GIS in Fidelity Taxable: Bought 1 at $58; 1 at $57.67:
Quote: General Mills Inc
Closing Price 8/19/21: GIS +$60.13 +$0.85 +1.43%
General Mills: Brands overview
Average Cost per share this Account: $56.31 (64+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.51
General Mills, Inc. - Stock Information
Yield at $56.31 = 3.62%
I am continuing to reinvest the dividend in this account since I view the shares as rationally valued:
GIS has been trading in a narrow trading range. I reduced my position recently and am just buying back some of those shares at lower prices. Item # 3.B. Sold 1.582 GIS at $64.42 (6/4/21 Post); Item # 1.A. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 4 at $61.37 (4/17/21 Post)
Recent Material News: General Mills Completes Acquisition of Tyson Foods’ Pet Treats Business (7/6/21)(Paid $1.2B in cash for business that includes Nudges, Top Chews and True Chews brands; GIS claims that this business is the leader in natural meat treats for pets); General Mills Continues Portfolio Reshaping Strategy with Acquisition of Tyson Foods’ Pet Treats Business (5/14/21)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.G. Added to GIS in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $55.9; 5 GIS at $55.5; 5 at $55.2; 5 at $54.9; 5 at $54.5; 5 at $54 (2/6/21 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Fiscal 4th Quarter ending 5/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release The comparable quarter in 2020 was positively impacted by a surge in pandemic related demand.
For the F/Y ending 5/31/21, GAAP E.P.S. was reported at $3.78, up 6%.
Fiscal 2022 Outlook:
My guess is that results will be close to flat with fiscal 2021, moving into low single digits growth in revenues and adjusted E.P.S. only with a surge in home dining caused by renewed consumer concerns about Covid.
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.A. Eliminated GIS-Sold 27+ at $54.86 (3/21/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $426.37); Item # 1.A. Sold 13 GIS at $55.02-Used Commission Free Trade (8/17/19 Post)(profit = $134.13); Item 1.B. Sold Highest Cost GIS lots at $51.69 (4/7/2019 Post); Item #2.A. Sold 10 GIS at $56.18-Used Commission Free Trade (12/21/17 Post) Snapshots of 2007 through 2017 round-trip trades can be found in Item 1.B. The largest single gain was $1,285.51 realized on a 52 share lot in 2016. There have not yet been any realized losses. The goal over my lifetime is to realize at least $5K in gains from trading the stock.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
