Economy:
The government's first estimate of 2nd quarter real GDP growth was reported at a 6.5% annualized rate, well below the consensus estimate of 8.5%. Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) The 6.5% growth rate was in line with the 6.4% estimate made by the Atlanta FED the day before the release, which was a downward revision from the 7.4% estimate made on 7/27/21, GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
Second-Quarter U.S. GDP Was Less Strong Than Expected | Barron's
Fed decision July 2021 Keeps FF target range at zero to .25%. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (7/28/21)("With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. . . The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.")
Housing boom is over as new home sales fall to pandemic low The government reported that the annualized rate of new single family home sales in June fell 19.4% below the June 2020 level and 6.6% below the annualized rate in May 2021.
New Home Sales-Census Bureau.pdf While some commentators blame a limited supply, affordability IMO is more likely the underlying cause of the slowdown. Note the supply available in the snapshot above.
June New Home Sales Brian Wesbury Analysis.pdf
Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States-St. Louis Fed
Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes-St. Louis Fed
Personal Income and Outlays, June 2021 and Annual Update | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Note that the personal consumption price index was up 4% in June.
U.S.-China meeting: Beijing official says relations are in a stalemate China and the U.S. are now in a Cold War that has far reaching economic implications for both nations.
Union Pacific freight halt shows global supply chain struggles - The Washington Post (temporary halt due to backlogs)
COVID-19: Why CDC wants vaccinated Americans to wear masks again The recommendation is for areas experiencing surging infection rates. It is a joke of course that retail stores have adopted an honor system where only unvaccinated people have to wear a mask, and no social distancing is the norm. That has meant that all of those who refuse to be vaccinated simply stopped wearing masks and are now spreading the Delta variant. The bottom line is that the unvaccinated, particularly the Trumpsters, couldn't care less that they could infect others and potentially cause another person's death, long term disability or serious illness resulting in hospitalization. All of Tennessee is included which was expected. Map: See if the CDC recommends indoor mask use in the county where you live
Pfizer says immunity drops to 83% within four months in people who got its COVID-19 shot, further bolstering the company case for a booster - MarketWatch If almost everyone had been vaccinated, there would be no need for booster shots, but the irresponsible actions of tens of millions will end up requiring them.
CDC mask decision followed stunning findings from Cape Cod beach outbreak - ABC News
Delta: CDC warns variant is as contagious as chickenpox, may make people sicker
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Markets and Market Commentary:
Stagflation is ‘a legitimate risk’ that would be painful for U.S. markets - MarketWatch
Considering Utility Stocks? Here’s the Case for Duke Energy. | Barron's Of the three stocks mentioned, I currently own Duke Energy Corp. (DUK) and Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. (PEG). I have owned in the past the other one, FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) but have not purchased shares recently due to its legal issues relating to bribing Ohio Republican legislators. The article does mention that FE agreed to pay a fine of $230M last week to the Justice Department to prevent criminal prosecutions. Ohio's FirstEnergy Will Pay $230 Million For Its Part In Bribery Scheme-NPR; Former Ohio House Speaker Is Expelled After His Indictment-NPR; Ohio House Removes And Replaces Newly Indicted Larry Householder As Speaker-NPR Other litigation is still pending including shareholder class action lawsuits. FE 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/21 at pp. 31-32 I would note that the Republican Justice who wrote the majority opinion in the Citizens United case took judicial notice that corporations do not bribe elected officials. Anthony Kennedy Authored Ludicrous Citizens United Ruling
Opinion: Big losses ahead for markets? Jeremy Grantham’s terrifying new forecasts - MarketWatch The forecast is for a negative annual real return of 8% for U.S. large caps, 8.5% of U.S. Small Caps and 3.1% for U.S. bonds. GMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecast: 2Q 2021 If that happens, there are going to be a lot of unhappy people.
China's Regulatory Crackdowns Are Hitting Emerging Markets. Tread Carefully. | Barron's
Qualcomm (QCOM) earnings Q3 2021
Facebook (FB) earnings Q2 2021
Amazon (AMZN) earnings Q2 2021;
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Earnings Reports Owned Stocks:
Associated Bancorp (ASB) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (net income of $86M or $.56 per share with the consensus at $.48 per share per Fidelity; NIM 2.38%, down from 2.49% in the 2020 second quarter; adjusted efficiency ratio = 65.58%; NPL Ratio = .61%; NPA Ratio = .5%; YTD Charge off Ratio = .08%; ROA = 1.10%; ROTE = 13.6%; tangible book value per share =$17.35; total capital ratio = 14.02%; dividend payout ratio = 31.58%)
Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB) Reports Second Quarter Results; Declares Dividend (Core Earnings of $9.4M or $.63 per share; GAAP E.P.S. at $.60; there are no quarterly analyst estimates; 8% annualized commercial loan growth excluding PPP; NIM = 2.74%, down from 2.93% in the 2020 second quarter; efficiency ratio = 63.45%; Core ROA 1.01%; Core ROE = 9.13%; Core ROTE = 13.42%; Charge off ratio = .01%; NPL Ratio = .54%; NPA Ratio = .37%; loan to deposit ratio = 89%; tangible book value per share = $19.3)
Bristol Myers (BMY) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (adjusted net income of $4.3B or $1.93 per share with the consensus at $1.891 per Fidelity; revenues reported at $11.7B, 16% higher compared to the 2020 second quarter driven by a 16% increase in Opdivo sales to $1.91B; maintains guidance of 2021 adjusted E.P.S. of $7.35 to $7.55; the most important near term issue remains Revlimid's loss of patent protection next year; Revlimid 2nd quarter sales at $3.202B up from $2.884B in the 2020 second quarter)
Ericsson Telephone (ERIC) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (E.P.S. = $.139 with consensus at at $.159; company is being hurt by China's retaliation against Sweden, under U.S. pressure, banning Huawei products over national security concerns; historically China has contributed about 10% of ERIC's revenues; sales in China fell SEK2.5B; total revenue was SEK54.9B or about US6.3B, a 1% decline from the 2020 second quarter and below the consensus estimate of SEK57.3B; a filing 3 days after this report indicated that the problems in China were getting worse, 6-K; China's telecom stocks have been delisted in the U.S. 3 Chinese telecom carriers will be delisted from NYSE after losing appeals over a Trump-era investment rule | Markets Insider; Here's what happens if you own a share of a Chinese company that gets delisted)
First Bancorp (FNLC) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (net income of $8.8M or diluted $.80 per share, up $.20 from the 2020 second quarter; no analyst estimates; NIM = 2.87% compared to 2.86% in the 2020 second quarter; GAAP efficiency ratio = 46.33% with non-GAAP at 45.14%; ROA = 1.46%; ROE = 15.11%; ROTE = 17.43%; "loans increased $71.5 million in the second quarter to $1.59 billion, an annualized growth rate of 18.9%"; "low-cost deposits grew $45.9 million in the second quarter to $1.19 billion, an annualized growth rate of 16.1%"; NPA Ratio = .3%; Charge off ratio = .03%; Board declare a $.32 per share quarterly dividend; dividend payout ratio at 39.51% for the period; tangible book value per share = $18.49; total risk based capital ratio = 14.42%)
First Financial Bancorp (FFBC) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (E.P.S. = $.52, adjusted to $.58 with consensus at $.52 per Fidelity; with adjustments, ROA and ROTE reported at 1.39% and 18.03% respectively and efficiency ratio at 58.4%; NIM = 3.27%, down from 3.44% in the 2020 second quarter; Charge off ratio = .23%; NPL Ratio = 1.03%; NPA Ratio = .62%; Coverage Ratio = 162.12%; tangible book value per share = $13.06; total capital ratio = 15.31%; tangible equity to tangible equity assets ratio = 11.19%; dividend payout ratio = 27.9%)
First Financial Northwest, Inc. (FFNW) Reports Second Quarter Earnings (net income of $3.8M or $.40 per share with the consensus per Fidelity at $.244; NIM = 3.36%, up from 3.12% in the 2020 second quarter; efficiency ratio =66.92%; a big deal for this small bank is that a $2M nonperforming loan paid off; NPA Ratio = .03%; NPL Ratio = 0.00%; net recovery-no charge offs; ROA = 1.07%; ROE = 9.54%; tangible book value per share = $16.58; total capital ratio = 15.7%)
First Hawaiian (FHB) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (E.P.S. = $.67 with the consensus at $.466 per Fidelity; Better than expected earnings tied to "a $35.0 million negative provision for credit losses; NIM = 2.54%, down from 2.58% in the 2020 second quarter; core efficiency ratio = 54.13%; Core ROA = 1.46%; Core ROE = 13.07%; Core ROTE = 20.74%; NPL Ratio = .07%; total capital ratio = 14.01%; tangible book value per share = $13.45; number of branches =54)
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (revenues ups 6% at £8.092B with the consensus at £7.6; adjusted earnings per share at 28.1p with the estimate at 19.6p; Glaxo Stock Is Stuck in a Rut. What Can Get It Moving Again. | Barron's noting that the GSK ADR was at $42.9 in 2011 and at less than $40 now; I have pared my position down to a 8 share lot with an average cost per share of $35.65, Items 3.I. and 3.J. (7/9/21 Post), and I am likely to eliminate that position at over $41; Glaxo Gets Vaccine Sales Boost and Covid-19 Efforts Start to Bear Fruit | Barron's)
Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (net investment income of $6.1M or $.31 per share; net asset value per share $11.2; "subsequent to quarter end, declared distributions of $0.10 per share payable in October, November and December 2021")
IDACORP (IDA) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (E.P.S. of $1.38, up from $1.19 in the 2020 second quarter and beating consensus of $1.23 per Fidelity; increased 2021 E.P.S. guidance to $4.7-$4.9 from $4.6 to $4.8; SEC Filed Slides for Conference Call)
Kinder Morgan (KMI) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.23 with consensus at $.192 per Fidelity; revenues = $3.15B; distributable cash flow of $1.025B of $.45 per share; GAAP loss of $757M due primarily to "non-cash impairment related to anticipated lower volumes and rates on contract renewals on our South Texas natural gas processing and gathering assets. Adjusted Earnings, which do not include that impairment, were $516 million for the quarter."; Board declared a quarterly dividend of $.27 per share; "For 2021, KMI now expects to generate net income attributable to KMI of $1.7 billion and declare dividends of $1.08 per share, a 3% increase from the 2020 declared dividends. KMI currently anticipates "generating 2021 DCF of $5.4 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $7.9 billion. KMI also now expects to end 2021 with a Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 4.0.")
Lockheed Martin (LMT) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (net income of $1.6B or $6.52 per share, with the consensus at $6.534 per Fidelity; "Second quarter 2021 net earnings include a loss of $225 million ($169 million, or $0.61 per share, after tax), recorded at Aeronautics, related to performance issues experienced on a classified program", which would not have been included in the analyst estimates according to what I have read on the subject; revenues = $17B compared to $16.2B in the 2020 second quarter; raised 2021 E.P.S. outlook from $26.4 to $26.7 to $26.7 to $27)
MarineMax (HZO) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (E.P.S. = $2.59 with the consensus at $1.993 per Fidelity; revenue up 34% to $666.3M; "Based on current business conditions, retail trends and other factors, the Company is raising its fiscal year 2021 guidance for earnings per diluted share to the range of $6.40 to $6.55 from $5.50 to $5.65, which was previously increased from original guidance of $4.00 to $4.20 per diluted share. This compares to a non-GAAP adjusted, but fully taxed, earnings per diluted share of $3.42 in fiscal 2020.")
Old Republic International (ORI) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (Net income excluding investment gain of $220.9M or $.73, with consensus at $.527 per Fidelity; E.P.S. with investment gains at $1.05)
Roche (RHHBY) reports good half-year results (the data is for the first six months of 2021; revenues = CHF30.71B (about US$33.46B), up 8% at CER and 5% in CHF; IFRS net income of CHF 8,216B; core E.P.S. of CHF 10.56; diagnostic revenues increased 51%; pharmaceutical revenues decreased 3% in CER and 7% in CHF but were up 4% in the first quarter after a 9% decline in the first quarter; ADR Ratio 8:1; more details at Roche.pdf)
Texas Instruments (TXN) reports second quarter 2021 financial results and shareholder returns (Net Income of $1.931B and E.P.S. of $2.05; the consensus estimate was for $1.87 per Fidelity; revenue of $4.58B, up 41% from the 2020 second quarter; Free Cash Flow = $1.735B; Free Cash flow as a % of revenues = 38.7%; "third quarter outlook is for revenue in the range of $4.40 billion to $4.76 billion and earnings per share between $1.87 and $2.13")
Union Bankshares (UNB) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (Net income of $3M or $.67 per share, up from $.60 in the 2020 second quarter; no analyst estimates; "The provision for loan losses was $75 thousand for the three months ended June 30, 2021"; Board declared a quarterly dividend of $.33 per share; this small bank does not provide much information in its press release; quote UNB)
Valley National (VLY) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (GAAP Net income of $120.5M or $.29; Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.30 with the consensus at $.30 per Fidelity; NIM =3.18%, up from 3.14% in the 2021 first quarter and 3% in the 2020 second quarter; adjusted efficiency ratio at 48.64%; Adjusted ROA and ROTE at 1.23% and 15.54%; Coverage Ratio = 154.23%; Charge-off ratio = .11%; NPL Ratio = .68% tangible book value per share = $7.59; total capital ratio at 13.36%)
Verizon (VZ) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (Adjusted E.P.S. at $1.37 with the estimate at $1.3 per Fidelity; GAAP E.P.S. at $1.4; net income of $5.9B; revenue = $33.8B; "total wireless service revenue of $16.9 billion, a 5.9 percent increase year over year, and a 4.0 percent increase from second-quarter 2019"; GAAP includes "a net pre-tax gain from special items of $182 million, consisting of a pre-tax gain of approximately $1.3 billion related to a pension remeasurement credit, and a pre-tax loss of $1.1 billion from early debt redemption costs"; "company now expects adjusted EPS* of $5.25 to $5.35, an update from prior guidance for 2021 adjusted EPS* of $5.00 to $5.15.")
Washington Trust Bancorp (WASH) SEC Filed Earnings Press Release (Net income of $17.5M or $1 per share; consensus at $1.072 per Fidelity; NIM = 2.55%; up from 2.31% in the 2020 second quarter; Efficiency Ratio = 59.6%; ROA = 1.2%; ROE = 12.92%; ROTE = 14.84%; NPL Ratio = .24%; Board declared a $.52 per share quarterly dividend; total risk based capital ratio = 13.65%; tangible book value per share = $27.6; loan to deposit ratio = 90.8%; realized gains on loan sales reported at $8.562M, down from $14.851M in the 2020 second quarter and $$13.745M in the 2021 first quarter)
Webster Financial (WBS) Reports Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Of $1.01 Per Diluted Share (GAAP Net income of $91.6M or $1.01 per share; Non-GAAP at $1.21 which excludes merger related and "strategic optimization" expenses; consensus at $.995 per Fidelity; NIM = 2.82%, down from 2.99% in the 2020 second quarter; efficiency ratio = 56.64%; Charge off ratio = net recovery (.02%); NPL Ratio = .56%; NPA Ratio = .57%; ROA 1.12%; ROE = 11.63%; ROTE = 14.26%; Tangible Book Value per share = $28.99)
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FBI says it got more than 4,500 tips on Kavanaugh, providing 'relevant' ones to White House The FBI did not conduct an investigation and sending leads to Trump where they ended up buried is conclusive evidence that the process was a political sham.
Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND): 'We Can't Pray for People's Healing in Church Anymore' Cramer is just another Republican who creates his own reality. Cramer will not say whether he has received a vaccination. Cramer made that statement in the usual Fox "news" puff interview.
Some Florida Hospitals Have More Covid Patients Than Ever Before; republished by MSN.com from Some Florida Hospitals Have More Covid Patients Than Ever Before - The New York Times
Trump Inaugural Committee Chair to Be Released on $250M Bail; Trump inauguration head pleads not guilty to being foreign agent-ABC News Barrack is a Trump ally and served as Chairman of Don the Authoritarian's inaugural committee. D.C. attorney general charges Trump inaugural committee enriched the family business; Ivanka Trump deposed by DC attorney general in inauguration investigation - ABC News
Former Missouri Governor Eric Greitens (R) has gone all-in to get Donald Trump's endorsement for his Senate campaign. - The Washington Post Greitens is doing what he can to ingratiate himself with Dictator Don including claiming that Donald can still depose Joe Biden as President. He has appeal in TrumpWorld in that he had to resign as Governor after allegations that he engaged in coercive sex. One woman testified that Greitens tied her up in his basement, blindfolded her, took off her clothes, and coerced her while bound to give him oral sex. Full report from Missouri House special investigative committee | The Kansas City Star; Special Investigative Committee on Oversight Report.pdf Greiten denied the allegations made against him. Polling indicates that he has tremendous support among the Republican base in Missouri as one would expect. And he has been endorsed by Rudy Giuliani and Sebastian Gorka with Kimberly Guilfoyle hired as his campaign manager. So he touching all of the bases in Trump's America.
Gretens has received a $2.5M commitment from the self-described "conservative" Richard Uihlein.
Putin says Russian navy can carry out 'unpreventable strike' if needed Putin is just the latest example of why Russia has a GDP lower than Italy, Brazil and Canada and will cascade further down when its energy supplies start to taper off and decline. Countries by GDP: The Top 25 Economies in the World The country has just squandered its natural potential and resources.
Trump: US Women's Soccer Team Lost to Sweden Because of 'Wokeism' Only Trumpsters can understand this claim. I wonder if any of them view Doofus Don's claim as idiotic or delusional.
Trump says he and Capitol rioters wanted same thing: Overturning Biden win
Donald Trump Phoenix, Arizona Rally Speech Transcript July 24 - Rev One of Don the Con's claims was that Democrats can win an election only by cheating.
Opinion column-Dana Milbank | As Jan. 6 hearings begin, Republicans side with the terrorists - The Washington Post ("Six Republican members of the House, escorted by a man in a giant Trump costume bearing the message “TRUMP WON,” marched on the Justice Department Tuesday afternoon to speak up for those they called “political prisoners” awaiting trial for their roles in the insurrection."); Jan. 6 committee starts investigation with emotional police testimony; At 1st Jan. 6 committee hearing, police officers recount brutal, racist attack by Trump mob - ABC News; Officers give emotional testimony at January 6 Capitol riot select committee hearing
GOP Congressman Andrew Clyde (R-GA) Stands By Comparison of Jan. 6 to ‘Tourist Visit’ (7/28/21)
Trump-backed Republican candidate Max Miller 'assaulted girlfriend Stephanie Grisham', sources claim | Daily Mail Online; Max Miller: Donald Trump’s pick to unseat a Republican congressman has a history of aggressive behavior. - POLITICO
Arizona election audit contractor raises $5.7M in private donations | TheHill Most of the money came from five groups who have claimed that the election was stolen from Trump. Arizona’s GOP-backed ballot review has raised more than $5.7 million in private donations, organizers say - The Washington Post
Republicans' No Evidence Attempt to Cast Blame on Pelosi for Jan. 6 - FactCheck.org Facts are irrelevant in Trump's party. Lying is the new normal since Trump has proven that lying all of the time about almost everything works on the intended audience. Lying is the new accepted "conservative" value.
Greenland ice melting on Tuesday could cover Florida in 2 inches of water - CNN
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I am continuing a net reduction of my stock portfolio. The average net reduction is about $1,500 per week over the past several weeks, but has accelerated in the current week with the trades to be discussed in a subsequent post.
1. Eliminated BXMX in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 100 at $14.42:
Quote: Nuveen S&P 500 Buy-Write Income Fund Overview- A CEF
Sponsor's website: Nuveen S&P 500 Buy-Write Income Fund
Nuveen S&P 500 Buy-Write Income Fund (SEC Filed 2020 Annual Report)
Investments as of 3/31/21-SEC Filing
Profit Snapshot: +$397.70 (LT gain, 7/8/21 sale only)
I currently own 20+ shares in my Schwab taxable account with an average cost per share of $10.53 per share. I am not reinvesting the dividend. The current yield at $10.53 is 8.17%.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.215 per share (partial ROC support)
Last Ex Dividend: 6/14/21
Data Date of 7/8/21 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per share: $14.85
Closing Market Price: $14.39
Discount: -3.1%
5 year average discount = -3.5%
Sourced: BXMX- CEF Connect
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.C. Pared BXMX-Sold 10 at $14.14 (6/19/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $33.36); Item # 2.J. Sold All Shares Purchased with dividend in Fidelity Taxable at $13.63 (4/24/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $13.63)
BXMX Realized Gains to Date: $444.69
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments.
2. Canadian Reset Equity Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Eliminated CPXPRE-Sold Remaining 100 Shares at C$24.18 (C$1 Commission):
Quote: CPX-PE.TO
Issuer: Capital Power Corp.
Profit Snapshot: C$843
Buy Discussions: Item # 3. Added to CPXPRE-Bought 50 at C$14.2 (4/18/20 Post); Item # 4.A. Added 50 CPXPRE at C$17.4 (12/4/19 Post); Item # 3.A. Bought 50 CPXPRE at C$17.63 (10/30/19 Post)
1 Year Chart:
Par Value: C$25
Security: Reset equity preferred stock
Current Coupon: 5.238% paid on C$25 par value; Cumulative
Last Reset: April 2018
Series 5, CPX.PR.E - Capital Power
Resets: Every 5 years at a 3.15% spread to the 5-year Canadian government bond unless redeemed
The current 5.238% coupon indicates that the 5-year bond was at 2.088% on the reset date. The current price reflects some optimism IMO that the reset coupon will be close to or higher than the current coupon.
The current yield is less than 1%. Canada 5 Year Government Bond Overview | MarketWatch
Optional Redemption: Every 5 years on the reset date.
Prior CPXPRE Sell Discussion: Item # 1.A. Sold 50 of 150 CPXPRE:CA at C$22.01(5/28/21 Post)(profit snapshot = C$217)
CPXPRE Realized Gains to Date: C$1,060.
Realized Gains in Other Capital Power Preferred Stocks = C$895
Item # 2.A. Sold 100 CPXPRA at C$16.92 (1/15/18 Post)(profit snapshot = C$670)-Item # 3 Bought 100 CXPRA at C$10.2 Update For Exchange Traded Bonds And Preferred Stocks Basket Strategy As Of 4/14/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha That one will reset in December 2020 at a 2.17% spread to the five-year Canadian bond. I do not have a position at the moment.
I also have a prior round trip in CPXPRC, realizing a C$225 gain. South Gent's Comment Blog # 8: Sold 50 CPXPRC at C$19.08 (bought at C$14.54. Item # 2. That one reset in December 2018 at a 3.23% spread to the five-year Canadian government bond.
DBRS rates the preferred shares at Pfd-3 low. Capital Power Corporation: Rating Report - 2021-04-14-DBRS Morningstar That rating is equivalent to BBB-. DBRS Rating Scale for Preferred Stock.pdf
Total Realized Gains CPX Preferred Stocks = C$1,955.
Current Position: None
3. Sold 102 PFLT at $13.26 in Schwab Taxable-Highest Cost Lots:
Quote: PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT)
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release For the Q/E 3/3121 (NII per share at $.26 with dividend at $.285 per share)
Profit Snapshot: $30.92
New AC this account = $9.55 (100+ shares)
Remaining Share Details:
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| Dividend Reinvestment + Small Ball Buying |
Dividend: Monthly at $.095 per share ($1.14 annually)
Dividend reinvestment has been turned off after the March 2021 payment.
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. Common Stock (PFLT) Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at new AC = 11.94%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 7/16/21
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.G. Bought 10 PFLT at $6.06; 4 at $5.75 (6/6/20 Post)
The 5 year low was hit in March 2020 at $3.34.
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.A. Eliminated PFLT in Fidelity Account-Sold 81+ at $12.01 (12/14/19 Post)
Net Asset Value Per Share History:
3/31/21: $12.71 Press Release 2021 1st Q Earnings
3/31/20: $12.20 10-Q at page 5
12/31/19: $12.95
9/30/19: $12.97
6/30/19: $13.07
3/21/19: $13.24
12/31/18 $13.66
9/30/18 $13.82
6/30/18: $13.82
9/30/17: $14.10
9/30/16: $14.06
9/30/15: $13.95
9/30/14: $14.40
9/30/13: $14.10
9/30/12: $13.98
IPO April 2011 at $15 (net to company at $13.9 after underwriters' discount and before PFLT expenses related to the offering)
The next earnings report will be released on 8/4/21. I will discuss it in my next post
Prior Round-Trip Snapshots: $104.35
PFLT Total Realized Gains to Date: $135.27
Profits have been hard to generate.
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividends paid.
4. Small Ball:
A. Added to AMCR-Bought 10 at $11.45; 10 at $11.27:
Quote: Amcor PLC
Last Discussed: Item # 2 Bought 100 AMCR at $11.97 (6/12/21 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. Amcor reports year to date results and raises outlook for fiscal 2021 The last report was for the third fiscal quarter ending 3/31/21.
Investment Category: Bond Substitute
Average Cost per share this account: $11.87 (120 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.115 per share ($.47 annually)
Yield at AC: 3.96%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/25/21 (owned 100 as of)
Maximum Position: 300 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain.
I will discuss the earnings report for the fiscal 4th quarter after it is released.
B. Bought 10 ACRE at $15.04-Fidelity Taxable:
Quote: Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp.
Closing Price 7/29: ACRE $15.37 +$0.06 +0.39%
Ares Commercial "is a specialty finance company primarily engaged in originating and investing in commercial real estate loans and related investments. Through its national direct origination platform, ACRE provides a broad offering of flexible financing solutions for commercial real estate owners and operators. ACRE elected and qualified to be taxed as a real estate investment trust and is externally managed by a subsidiary of Ares Management Corporation, a publicly traded, leading global alternative investment manager."
Website: Ares Commercial Real Estate
I would classify this company as a Mortgage REIT.
The price recently declined some in response to a share offering. Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation Announces Pricing of Offering of Common Stock (6/18/21)
Investment Category: Bond Substitute-viewed as risky.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.33 (regular only)
Yield at $15.04 = 8.78%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/29/21
2020 Tax Information for Dividends:
Almost all of the dividend will be classified as non-qualified which is common for pass through entities.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21, announced earlier today): SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP Net Income of $17.6M or $.43 per share
Distributable Income = $15.1M or $.37 per share
Consensus at $.349 per Fidelity (probably based on distributable income)
C. Bought 5 ACRE at $14.5-Schwab Taxable:
See Item #4.B. Above
Yield at $14.5: 9.1%
D. Restarted CSX-Bought 2 at $31.74; 1 at $30.67:
There was a 3 for 1 stock split last June.. CSX Announces Stock Split - CSX.com I bought the 3 shares after the split.
Quote: CSX Corp.
CSX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 7/25, E.P.S. average estimates were for $1.5 in 2021, $1.71 in 2022 and $1.87 in 2023.)
Website: CSX rail, intermodal and rail-to-truck transload services - CSX.com
I view railroads serving major U.S. population centers as natural monopolies. Transporting goods is cheaper than by truck for the kind of commodities and products moved by CSX and other major railroads.
Only Round-Trip: Item # 1 Sold 100 CSX at $30.4 (6/21/14 Post); Item # 5 Bought 100 CSX at $26.33 (11/12/13 Post)
Profit Snapshot from 2014: I would have been far better off keeping this lot. If I had kept the lot, I would own 300 shares now.
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| 2014 CSX 100 shares + $390.78 |
Dividend: Prior to the stock split, the quarterly rate was at $.28, last raised from $.26 effective for the 2021 first quarter payment. In 2011, the dividend penny rate was $.12 per share.
CSX Corporation - Stock Information - Dividend History
Last Ex Dividend: 5/27/21
Average Cost= 31.83 (3 shares)
Yield: 1.17%-Unappealing to me now.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21):
E.P.S. = $.52
Consensus E.P.S. at $.369 per Fidelity
Revenues: $2.99B, beating consensus of $2.93B.
Sourced: 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/21
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
SEC Filed Supplementals for Q/E 6/30/21
E. Eliminated FRST in Schwab Taxable-Sold 20+ at $14.92:
Quote: Primis Financial Corp. (FRST), formerly known as the Southern National Bancorp of Virginia (SONA). Just a name and symbol change from SONA to FRST.
Investor Relations - PRIMIS Financial Corporation
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the 2021 First Quarter "As of March 31, 2021, Primis had $3.33 billion in total assets, $2.39 billion in total loans and $2.69 billion in total deposits. Primis Bank, the Company's banking subsidiary, provides a range of financial services to individuals and small- and medium-sized businesses through forty-one full-service branches in Virginia and Maryland and through certain internet and mobile applications.")
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: +$128.26
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.F. Restarted SONA-Bought 10 at $8.73; 5 at $8.42; 5 at $8.25 (8/22/20 Post)
Sell Discussions: Item # 1.M. Sold 5 SONA at $16.1 (3/20/21 Post); Sold Remaining 50 SONA at $15.05 South Gent's Comment Blog # 6; Item # 3 Sold 100 of 150 SONA at $13.12 Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 8/18/2016 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Eliminated SONA Sold 100 at $12.8 and 100 at at $12.98-Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 12/28/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Dividend: Quarterly at $.10 per share, last raised from $.09 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment.
Primis Financial Corp. Common Stock (FRST) Dividend History | Nasdaq
The yield at $14.92 is about 2.68%.
Last Ex Dividend: 5/13/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/21): Primis Financial Corp. Reports Diluted Earnings per Share of $0.42 for the Second Quarter of 2021
Net Income of $10.3M or $.42 per share
Consensus at $.26 per Fidelity.
Declared regular quarterly dividend of 10 cents per share.
This is profit taking on a relatively low yielding regional bank stock that I have bought and sold many times.
F. Eliminated FRST in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 20 at $15.20:
See Item # 4.D. above
Profit Snapshot: +$133.40
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.M Sold 5 SONA at $16.1 (3/20/21 Post); Item # 3 Sold 100 of 150 SONA at $13.12 Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 8/18/2016 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Eliminated SONA Sold 100 at $12.8 and 100 at $12.98-Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 12/28/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Sold Remaining 50 SONA at $15.05 South Gent's Comment Blog # 6
Realized Gains FRST/SONA to Date: +$772.29
G. Eliminated MMM-Sold 1.191 share at $202.56:
I never got going with MMM. I would sell shares at over $200 irrespective of the number. The headwind from environmental litigation and remediation is a serious one IMO.
Quote: 3M Co.
Share Information as of 7/29/21:
MMM SEC Filings2020 Annual Report (see pages 111-128 for a detailed discussion of actual and potential liabilities including the potentially large PFAS liabilities)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. Started MMM-Multiple Small Dollar Purchases (1/23/21 Post)
Profit Snapshot = $41.46
Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. Started MMM with multiple small dollar buys (1/21/21 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.48 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 5/20/21
10 Year Chart:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP and Adjusted E.P.S. at $2.59
Estimate was at $2.28
Revenues at $8.9B with consensus at $8.56
See 2021 Adjusted E.P.S. at $9.7 to $10.10, with consensus prior to the earnings release at $9.8.
Adjusted free cash of $1.6B in the second quarter, up 2%.
3M Chief Talks Inflation. We Explore Ways to Invest. | Barron's Rising costs will reduce MMM earnings by 30 to 50 cents in 2021.
I also discussed the rationale for selling MMM in a S7/28/21 comment.
Broker Responses to Earnings Report:
On 7/29/21, UBS maintained its sell rating and adjusted its PT to $183 from $181. I do not have access to that report.
On 7/28, 21, MS adjusted it PT to $213 from $200 and kept its equal weight rating; Goldman Sach adjusted its PT to $204 from $200 and maintained its neutral rating; RBC kept its neutral rating and adjusted its PT to $206 from $200; D.A. Davidson kept it neutral rating and adjusted its PT to $197 from $195; and Deutsche Bank kept its neutral rating and adjusted its PT to $201 from $196. I do not have access to those reports, but they are consistent in mildly positive responses to the last earnings report that were reflected only in small PT increases.
Reports Available to Schwab customers:
Argus (7/27/21): Reiterates buy and adjusts PT to $225 from $200
S & P (7/28/21): 4 stars with a PT of $224.
Morningstar (7/28/21): 3 stars with a Fair Value of $195, wide moat.
Credit Suisse (7/27/21): Neutral with a 12 month PT of $212.
H. Started TLS-Bought 2 at $27.95; 1 at $26.75:
Quote: Telos Corp.
Closing Price 7/29/21: TLS $28.10 +$0.39 +1.41%
This is a new name for me.
Telos "empowers and protects the world’s most security-conscious organizations with solutions for continuous security assurance of individuals, systems, and information. Telos’ offerings include cybersecurity solutions for IT risk management and information security; cloud security solutions to protect cloud-based assets and enable continuous compliance with industry and government security standards; and enterprise security solutions for identity and access management, secure mobility, organizational messaging, and network management and defense. The company serves military, intelligence and civilian agencies of the federal government, allied nations and commercial organizations around the world."
Telos is owned by the Cybersecurity ETF (BUG);
The stock is not owned by the largest cybersecurity ETF. First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR)
I would expect TLS to be added to other cybersecurity ETFs when those funds rebalance.
TLS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 7/26/21, average E.P.S. estimates at $.33 for 2021, $.69 for 2022 and $1.04 for 2023.)
Telos Corp Key Metrics | Reuters
Telos Corp Key Developments | Reuters
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/21 (see pp. 29-30 for business description)
IPO: November 2020, selling stock at $17. Prospectus
Second Public Offering at $33 (April 2021): 1,243,066 + greenshoe by company and 6,662,073 + greenshoe by selling shareholder identified at page S-12 of the Prospectus
TLS Historical Prices (high at $41.84 on 1/20/21)
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
GAAP E.P.S. ($.23)
Non-GAAP E.P.S. ($0.00)
The largest adjustment to GAAP was share based compensation.
Selected First Quarter Highlights:
2021 Outlook:
"revenue in the range of $283 million to $295 million, an improvement of 57% to 64% compared to 2020"
"adjusted EBITDA in the range of $33 million to $36 million, an improvement of 190% to 216% compared to 2020."
I. Added 10 AFIN at $8.10-Fidelity Taxable:
Quote: American Finance Trust, Inc. Cl A (AFIN)-Externally Managed REIT
AFIN SEC Filings; 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/21; 2020 Annual Report
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Started AFIN in Vanguard Taxable-Bought 20 at $8.38; 5 at $8.16; 5 at $8 (7/23/21 Post); Item # 1.B. Bought 50 AFIN at $9; 10 at $8.3-Fidelity Taxable (7/2/21 Post)(my first purchase)
I have nothing to add to those recent posts. I will discuss the second quarter earnings report after it is released.
AC this Account: $8.77 (70 Shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.2125 per share ($.85 annually)
Yield at AC: 9.69%
Last Ex Dividend: 7/9/21
The ETF with the largest exposure to this REIT is the Invesco KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT ETF (KBWY) with a 5.2% weighting as of 7/23/21. Item # 2.H. Bought 3 KBWY at $22.88 in Vanguard Taxable and Item # 2.I. Bought 5 KBWY at $22.87 in Fidelity Taxable (6/19/21 Post)
J. Added 5 BP at $23.1-Vanguard Taxable:
Quotes:
USD: BP PLC ADR
British Pence BP PLC (U.K.: London)
ADR Ratio: 1:6 Shares in issue and share buybacks | Investors | Home
100 pence = £1
Closed in London on 7/29 at 295.65 pence or 2.9565 Pounds
Equivalent to US$4.13 at 1 GBP to 1.39596 USD
US 4.13 per ordinary x. 6 = US$24.78 for 1 ADR.
Convert 1 British Pound to US Dollar - GBP to USD Exchange Rates | Xe
BP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Website: Home
AC per share in this Account: $24.16 (15 shares)
Last Discussion: Item # 1.F. Bought 2 BP at $24.14 and 8 at $24.85 (4/30/21 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post.
Dividends: The last 4 quarters have been at US$.315 ($1.26 annually), cut from $.63 effective for the 2020 third quarter payment.
Dividend Yield: About 5.22% at a $24.16 AC using the past 4 quarters of USD dividend payments. Dividend for the ordinary shares are paid in Pence.
Last Ex Dividend: 5/6/21
The next earnings report is scheduled for release on 8/3, and I will discuss it in the next post.
S & P rates the stock at 4 stars with a $29 PT. Morningstar has a 4 star rating with a FV of $30. Argus has a Hold as of its 5/3/21 report.
K. Added 1 BP at $23.15-Fidelity Taxable:
See Item # 4.J above.
L. Sold 1 VNQ at $106.15:
Quote: VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate ETF Overview
I will only dabble occasionally in this REIT ETF given its low yield. The reason for the low yield is the large weighting in higher quality REITs that have dividend yields in the low single digits now.
Sponsor's Website: VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate ETF
Expense Ratio: .12%Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: +$18.71
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.A. Bought 2 VNQ at $56.48 (5/9/20 Post)
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)-Morningstar
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.I. Sold 2 VNQ at $82.59 (7/11/20 Post); Item #2.A Sold 10 VNQ at $81.08 (7/5/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $82.15); Item # 1.D Sold 10 VNQ at $79.89 and 10 at $80.06 (6/14/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $52.2); Item # 3 Sold 10 at $83.36-a Roth IRA Account: Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 3/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $72.63); Item # 3 Sold 10 at $80.74: Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 11/5/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $65.39) That post contains a discussion on the reasons for owning REITs.
VNQ Realized Gains to Date: $442.03
M. Bought 10 AKBA at $2.55:
Recent History this Account:
Website: Akebia | Pioneering Hypoxia Inducible Factor (HIF) Therapies
Chart: Ugly on steroids
Last Elimination: Item # 3.F. Eliminated AKBA Again-Sold 15 at $4.17 (7/9/21 Post)
I am very wary of this one. When discussing the stock in the post linked immediately above, I mentioned that I would consider buying at less than $3 and a 10 share buy at $2.55 was all of the courage that I could muster. I view this stock as pure speculation.
Last Buy Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 2.I. Bought 10 AKBA at $3.18; 5 at $3; 5 at $2.9 (12/25/20 Post)
Investment Strategy: one half of an average blackjack hand bet, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
If the FDA approves vadadustat which the market believes is unlikely based on the message being sent by the current price, there could be a major percentage pop. Akebia and Otsuka Announce FDA Acceptance for Filing of New Drug Application for Vadadustat for the Treatment of Anemia Due to Chronic Kidney Disease in Adult Patients on Dialysis and Not on Dialysis (6/1/21)
Another possible minor catalyst would be much better sales during the second quarter of AKBA's one approved drug Aurysia that was acquired in the merger with Keryx Biopharmaceuticals. The next loss report is scheduled for release on 8/5/21. Akebia Therapeutics to Report Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results and Discuss Recent Business Highlights; Akebia Reports First Quarter 2021 Financial Results and Highlights Recent Company Milestones
Recently some class action lawsuits have been filed by understandably unhappy former Keryx stock owners. SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Robbins LLP Announces that Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) is Being Sued for Misleading Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (KERX) Shareholders Ahead of Merger | Business Wire I doubt that will have legs.
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.O. Eliminated AKBA in Schwab Account-Sold 15 at $4.21 (2/13/21 Post); Item # 2.B. Sold 105 AKBA at $6.35 (1/2/20 Post); Item # 4.A. Sold 30 AKBA at $15.27 (8/22/17 Post)
AKBA Realized Gains to Date: $365.49
Playing with the House's Money
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
