I was hoping that someone in the White House could spell but alas that hope has now sunk into despair.
I am referring to a memo delivered to the press that purportedly justified another one of Trump's reality creations.
This is Trump's delusional statement made before the U.S. Central Command
“You’ve seen what happened in Paris, and Nice. All over Europe, it’s happening,” he said to the assembled military leaders. “It’s gotten to a point where it’s not even being reported. And in many cases the very, very dishonest press doesn’t want to report it. They have their reasons, and you understand that.”
That is something that only the True Believers knew.
Whenever there was a terrorist attack, including the ones specifically mentioned by Trump, there has been nonstop 24/7 news coverage out the Yin-Yang. New York Times
The media requested a list of those terrorist acts that they failed to cover, and then the White House delivered a truly miraculous document.
I am not referring to the terrorists attacks that were covered endlessly by the news media that are on the WH list, or the references to occasional lone wolf attacks against one or two persons in some distant foreign land which received less coverage. I could say without fear of being contradicted that I am far more likely to hear of attack on a Christian by a Muslim in India or Australia than a garden variety murder or attempted murder in Nashville.
Nor, am I going to discuss the inclusion of just false claims which is to be expected anyhow. ‘My daughter’s death will not be used’: Parents furious over Trump’s false terrorism claims - The Washington Post
I am not even going to take issue with the failure to include terrorists attacks by native born Caucasians in the U.S. and the recent murders by a white guy of Muslims in a Toronto mosque.
All of that is beside the point that I am making now.
Instead, I desperately wanted a Trump republican in the White House who could spell better than a second grader. At least the lying press, who needs to just shut up, can spell.
Shoker! Rediculous chocker Trump attaks and dishoners English with ever-dummer spellings. - The Washington Post
Trump should just sue everyone who points out facts to him for libel. The new libel law needs to provide a cause of action against anyone making a true statement to correct our Commander-In-Chiefs false statements.
+++++++++++++
Trump says that the media is engaging in fake news by providing correct information that the U.S. murder rate is not at a 47 year high but near a 4 decade low. I am having trouble learning Newspeak and will redouble my efforts. That sentence is hard for me to understand. I have to hit myself a few times in the head before the fog starts to clear.
Yes, as Trump has claimed many times, the murder rate is at a 47 year high, notwithstanding the claims of the lying press to the contrary.
The press "does not tell it like it is. Wasn't to their advantage" to tell the truth, quoting a recent statement by Our Leader . Trump repeats false claim about U.S. murder rate - The Washington Post Yes, the entire press is hiding the truth from the American people to further some awful ulterior motive.
Here are some stories written by the Lying Press who just need to shut up since they are just not with the program yet: True is False. False is True.
Some of the Lying Press, referring to the FBI's data on the murder rate (so quaint to still refer to facts), point out that the murder rate is near a 44 year low.
Donald Trump Claims US Murder Rate 'Highest' in '47 Years', Despite FBI Data Showing Otherwise - ABC News
Donald Trump Falsely Claims Highest U.S. Murder Rate | Time.com
Fact check: Trump makes false claim about murder rate - CBS News
In Meeting With Sheriffs, Trump Repeats False Murder Rate Statistic : The Two-Way : NPR
Trump Wrong on Murder Rate (FACTCHECK.ORG)
Trump keeps repeating his debunked claim that the murder rate is at its highest in 47 years - Business Insider
Here's the rub for those who can at least see a problem which is probably less than 50% of the voting population.
Is Trump just lying about the murder rate being at a 47 year high or is he delusional?
Fact checkers and the media have been pointing out the FBI data that contradicts his claim for months, which probably answers that question.
You can be grateful at least that Trump did not threaten to destroy you----yet. Trump offers to 'destroy' Texas senator to help Rockwall sheriff | Politics | Dallas News He was joking of course, and his audience did laugh for reasons known only to them.
We all know that Trump tells jokes everyday. He was joking when he offered to invade Mexico to take care of those bad hombres. It was a barrel of laughs when he hung up on the Australian P.M. He is the most funny when he tells his daily jokes with a serious face.
Texas Democrats Angered by Trump’s Remark on Destroying Senator’s Career - The New York Times
++++++++++++
Senator Warren was reading a letter from Coretta Scott King about Senator Sessions who is our new attorney general. She was reading that short letter on the Senate floor which caused the GOP senators to go into apoplexy. They voted to shut her up. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) stated that silencing Senator Warren was "long overdue".
Read the letter Coretta Scott King wrote opposing Sessions’s 1986 federal nomination - The Washington Post
After the GOP silenced Warren, two male U.S. Senators, Bernie Sanders and Jeff Merkley, were allowed to read Coretta's letter without being gagged by the GOP.
I doubt that Jeff Sessions will undergo a conversion similar to what happened to Senator Hugo Black (1886-1971) after he moved from being a Senator from Alabama to a Supreme Court Justice.
At one point in his life, Black joined the KKK. As a Justice, he became the most fervent supporter of the Bill of Rights and civil liberties. That is not going to happen with Sessions.
Jeff Sessions confirmed to be the next attorney general - CNNPolitics.com {52-47 with one Democrat Joe Manchin from West Virginia, who will likely lose his re-election bid in 2018, supporting Sessions. Trump won 68.6% of the vote, carrying every county in that state. The GOP is likely to gain more Senate seats in the 2018 election, given the number of vulnerable Democrats up for re-election then, with the Democrats defending 23 seats compared to 8 for the GOP, unless the nation is then in a serious recession. I doubt that the Democrats will figure out by then how to appeal to white working class voters and FDR and Harry Truman are not around to give them lessons}
++++++++++
Trump and the Imperial Presidency
A recent PPP poll found that 51% of Trump voters believe that the Orange King should be allowed to overrule court decisions that he does not like (16% are not sure).
Polling Question: "Do you think Donald Trump should be able to overturn decisions by judges that he disagrees with, or not? (PPP Poll, February 7-8)
PPP_Release_National_21017.pdf
That would equate to over 30 million adult voters who no longer believe in the very foundations of our democracy. Forget about all of the checks and balances created by the Founding Fathers. Trump will Make America Great Again and Trump Will Make America Safe Again. Forget about Article VI of the Constitution that provides that the Constitution itself is the Supreme Law of the Land. Constitution for the United States - We the People
As I have been saying to deaf ears for a decade or so, the greatest threat to our freedoms and democracy does not originate in foreign lands but from within the United States.
Apparently, those who call themselves conservatives now are not concerned about Trump's strong authoritarian tendencies or the fact that the courts decide whether laws are constitutional.
Trump does not decide whether his Executive Orders are constitutional, nor does Congress decide. It has been that way since the Supreme Court decided Marbury v. Madison (full text) :: 5 U.S. 137 (1803); The Supreme Court . The Court and Democracy . Landmark Cases . Marbury v. Madison (1803) | PBS
So 30+M republicans now want to take the U.S. back to the halcyon days before our Constitution was adopted, though leaving the second Amendment in place will certainly be okay.
The other two branches just need to kneel, swear unswerving allegiance, and agree with whatever comes out of Trump's mouth, and that includes the lying press as the unofficial 4th branch of government keeping an eye on the other three.
Trump on Immigration Power: I Can Do Whatever I Want - Bloomberg
Trump Calls Hearing on Immigration Ban ‘Disgraceful’ - The New York Times (referring to the arguments before the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals)
Trump: 'Dishonest press' won't report terrorist attacks | TheHill
With False Claims, Trump Attacks Media on Turnout and Intelligence Rift - The New York Times (journalists are among the most dishonest people on earth according to Trump)
Charges about the lying press are frequently made by Trump but its origins lie in the German term Lügenpresse. The Nazis use that term against the Jewish and foreign press.
The ugly history of ‘Lügenpresse,’ a Nazi slur shouted at a Trump rally - The Washington Post; Donald Trump Supporters Are Using Nazi Word 'Lügenpresse' | Time.com
It was shocking to hear the Justice Department's lawyer, Anthony Flentje, argue before the Ninth Circuit panel that the courts have no role in deciding whether Trump's immigration EO was constitutional. When Judge Michelle Friedland asked Flentje that question, the government's lawyer paused for several seconds before saying that the courts had no role.
Trump's constant attacks on the judiciary are certainly consistent with his authoritarian personality and his admiration of Putin who does not have to worry about an independent judicial branch.
Demonizing the free press and questioning their trustworthiness have been part of the GOP playbook for acquiring and maintaining power for decades now. The purpose is to cause tens of millions to tune out accurate information altogether and to rely solely on incomplete, misleading and alternate facts provided by GOP politicians, their apparatchiks and "think tanks" funded by the Koch brothers and other major GOP donors, and the GOP's propaganda organs.
Trump is denigrating the free press almost on a daily basis.
You either see it or you don't. I would say only a minority of voters see it, while a majority see nothing at all. I would not expect that to change since people are not going to change.
Wis. Trump supporters: Despite rocky start, give the president a chance - CBS News
++++++++++
GOP's Border Adjustment Tax:
I will be discussing periodically the potential impacts of the GOP's border adjustment tax on particular stocks. I will be assuming that readers are familiar with this tax plan:
How a controversial GOP plan could boost the taxes on a sweater from $1.75 to $17
Would the GOP's border tax adjustment lead to a trade war? | TheHill
Koch Industries Says House GOP’s Tax Plan ‘Could Be Devastating’ - Bloomberg
12 Stocks to Benefit Most From the House Tax Plan - Barron's
+++++++++++++
1. Short Term Bond/CD Basket Ladder Strategy
I am referring to a memo delivered to the press that purportedly justified another one of Trump's reality creations.
This is Trump's delusional statement made before the U.S. Central Command
“You’ve seen what happened in Paris, and Nice. All over Europe, it’s happening,” he said to the assembled military leaders. “It’s gotten to a point where it’s not even being reported. And in many cases the very, very dishonest press doesn’t want to report it. They have their reasons, and you understand that.”
That is something that only the True Believers knew.
Whenever there was a terrorist attack, including the ones specifically mentioned by Trump, there has been nonstop 24/7 news coverage out the Yin-Yang. New York Times
The media requested a list of those terrorist acts that they failed to cover, and then the White House delivered a truly miraculous document.
I am not referring to the terrorists attacks that were covered endlessly by the news media that are on the WH list, or the references to occasional lone wolf attacks against one or two persons in some distant foreign land which received less coverage. I could say without fear of being contradicted that I am far more likely to hear of attack on a Christian by a Muslim in India or Australia than a garden variety murder or attempted murder in Nashville.
Nor, am I going to discuss the inclusion of just false claims which is to be expected anyhow. ‘My daughter’s death will not be used’: Parents furious over Trump’s false terrorism claims - The Washington Post
I am not even going to take issue with the failure to include terrorists attacks by native born Caucasians in the U.S. and the recent murders by a white guy of Muslims in a Toronto mosque.
All of that is beside the point that I am making now.
Instead, I desperately wanted a Trump republican in the White House who could spell better than a second grader. At least the lying press, who needs to just shut up, can spell.
Shoker! Rediculous chocker Trump attaks and dishoners English with ever-dummer spellings. - The Washington Post
Trump should just sue everyone who points out facts to him for libel. The new libel law needs to provide a cause of action against anyone making a true statement to correct our Commander-In-Chiefs false statements.
+++++++++++++
Trump says that the media is engaging in fake news by providing correct information that the U.S. murder rate is not at a 47 year high but near a 4 decade low. I am having trouble learning Newspeak and will redouble my efforts. That sentence is hard for me to understand. I have to hit myself a few times in the head before the fog starts to clear.
Yes, as Trump has claimed many times, the murder rate is at a 47 year high, notwithstanding the claims of the lying press to the contrary.
The press "does not tell it like it is. Wasn't to their advantage" to tell the truth, quoting a recent statement by Our Leader . Trump repeats false claim about U.S. murder rate - The Washington Post Yes, the entire press is hiding the truth from the American people to further some awful ulterior motive.
Here are some stories written by the Lying Press who just need to shut up since they are just not with the program yet: True is False. False is True.
Some of the Lying Press, referring to the FBI's data on the murder rate (so quaint to still refer to facts), point out that the murder rate is near a 44 year low.
Donald Trump Claims US Murder Rate 'Highest' in '47 Years', Despite FBI Data Showing Otherwise - ABC News
Donald Trump Falsely Claims Highest U.S. Murder Rate | Time.com
Fact check: Trump makes false claim about murder rate - CBS News
In Meeting With Sheriffs, Trump Repeats False Murder Rate Statistic : The Two-Way : NPR
Trump Wrong on Murder Rate (FACTCHECK.ORG)
Trump keeps repeating his debunked claim that the murder rate is at its highest in 47 years - Business Insider
Here's the rub for those who can at least see a problem which is probably less than 50% of the voting population.
Is Trump just lying about the murder rate being at a 47 year high or is he delusional?
Fact checkers and the media have been pointing out the FBI data that contradicts his claim for months, which probably answers that question.
You can be grateful at least that Trump did not threaten to destroy you----yet. Trump offers to 'destroy' Texas senator to help Rockwall sheriff | Politics | Dallas News He was joking of course, and his audience did laugh for reasons known only to them.
We all know that Trump tells jokes everyday. He was joking when he offered to invade Mexico to take care of those bad hombres. It was a barrel of laughs when he hung up on the Australian P.M. He is the most funny when he tells his daily jokes with a serious face.
Texas Democrats Angered by Trump’s Remark on Destroying Senator’s Career - The New York Times
++++++++++++
Senator Warren was reading a letter from Coretta Scott King about Senator Sessions who is our new attorney general. She was reading that short letter on the Senate floor which caused the GOP senators to go into apoplexy. They voted to shut her up. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) stated that silencing Senator Warren was "long overdue".
Read the letter Coretta Scott King wrote opposing Sessions’s 1986 federal nomination - The Washington Post
After the GOP silenced Warren, two male U.S. Senators, Bernie Sanders and Jeff Merkley, were allowed to read Coretta's letter without being gagged by the GOP.
I doubt that Jeff Sessions will undergo a conversion similar to what happened to Senator Hugo Black (1886-1971) after he moved from being a Senator from Alabama to a Supreme Court Justice.
At one point in his life, Black joined the KKK. As a Justice, he became the most fervent supporter of the Bill of Rights and civil liberties. That is not going to happen with Sessions.
Jeff Sessions confirmed to be the next attorney general - CNNPolitics.com {52-47 with one Democrat Joe Manchin from West Virginia, who will likely lose his re-election bid in 2018, supporting Sessions. Trump won 68.6% of the vote, carrying every county in that state. The GOP is likely to gain more Senate seats in the 2018 election, given the number of vulnerable Democrats up for re-election then, with the Democrats defending 23 seats compared to 8 for the GOP, unless the nation is then in a serious recession. I doubt that the Democrats will figure out by then how to appeal to white working class voters and FDR and Harry Truman are not around to give them lessons}
Trump and the Imperial Presidency
A recent PPP poll found that 51% of Trump voters believe that the Orange King should be allowed to overrule court decisions that he does not like (16% are not sure).
Polling Question: "Do you think Donald Trump should be able to overturn decisions by judges that he disagrees with, or not? (PPP Poll, February 7-8)
PPP_Release_National_21017.pdf
That would equate to over 30 million adult voters who no longer believe in the very foundations of our democracy. Forget about all of the checks and balances created by the Founding Fathers. Trump will Make America Great Again and Trump Will Make America Safe Again. Forget about Article VI of the Constitution that provides that the Constitution itself is the Supreme Law of the Land. Constitution for the United States - We the People
As I have been saying to deaf ears for a decade or so, the greatest threat to our freedoms and democracy does not originate in foreign lands but from within the United States.
Apparently, those who call themselves conservatives now are not concerned about Trump's strong authoritarian tendencies or the fact that the courts decide whether laws are constitutional.
Trump does not decide whether his Executive Orders are constitutional, nor does Congress decide. It has been that way since the Supreme Court decided Marbury v. Madison (full text) :: 5 U.S. 137 (1803); The Supreme Court . The Court and Democracy . Landmark Cases . Marbury v. Madison (1803) | PBS
So 30+M republicans now want to take the U.S. back to the halcyon days before our Constitution was adopted, though leaving the second Amendment in place will certainly be okay.
The other two branches just need to kneel, swear unswerving allegiance, and agree with whatever comes out of Trump's mouth, and that includes the lying press as the unofficial 4th branch of government keeping an eye on the other three.
Trump on Immigration Power: I Can Do Whatever I Want - Bloomberg
Trump Calls Hearing on Immigration Ban ‘Disgraceful’ - The New York Times (referring to the arguments before the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals)
Trump: 'Dishonest press' won't report terrorist attacks | TheHill
With False Claims, Trump Attacks Media on Turnout and Intelligence Rift - The New York Times (journalists are among the most dishonest people on earth according to Trump)
Charges about the lying press are frequently made by Trump but its origins lie in the German term Lügenpresse. The Nazis use that term against the Jewish and foreign press.
The ugly history of ‘Lügenpresse,’ a Nazi slur shouted at a Trump rally - The Washington Post; Donald Trump Supporters Are Using Nazi Word 'Lügenpresse' | Time.com
It was shocking to hear the Justice Department's lawyer, Anthony Flentje, argue before the Ninth Circuit panel that the courts have no role in deciding whether Trump's immigration EO was constitutional. When Judge Michelle Friedland asked Flentje that question, the government's lawyer paused for several seconds before saying that the courts had no role.
Trump's constant attacks on the judiciary are certainly consistent with his authoritarian personality and his admiration of Putin who does not have to worry about an independent judicial branch.
Demonizing the free press and questioning their trustworthiness have been part of the GOP playbook for acquiring and maintaining power for decades now. The purpose is to cause tens of millions to tune out accurate information altogether and to rely solely on incomplete, misleading and alternate facts provided by GOP politicians, their apparatchiks and "think tanks" funded by the Koch brothers and other major GOP donors, and the GOP's propaganda organs.
Trump is denigrating the free press almost on a daily basis.
You either see it or you don't. I would say only a minority of voters see it, while a majority see nothing at all. I would not expect that to change since people are not going to change.
Wis. Trump supporters: Despite rocky start, give the president a chance - CBS News
++++++++++
GOP's Border Adjustment Tax:
I will be discussing periodically the potential impacts of the GOP's border adjustment tax on particular stocks. I will be assuming that readers are familiar with this tax plan:
How a controversial GOP plan could boost the taxes on a sweater from $1.75 to $17
Would the GOP's border tax adjustment lead to a trade war? | TheHill
Koch Industries Says House GOP’s Tax Plan ‘Could Be Devastating’ - Bloomberg
12 Stocks to Benefit Most From the House Tax Plan - Barron's
+++++++++++++
1. Short Term Bond/CD Basket Ladder Strategy
A. Bought 2 First Merchants Bank CDs .65% (monthly interest payments) Maturing on 8/3/17
Common Stock Quote: First Merchants Corp (FRME)
Earnings Report Q/E 12/31/16
B. Bought 1 Costco 1.125% Senior Unsecured Maturing on 12/15/17:
Common Stock Quote: First Merchants Corp (FRME)
Earnings Report Q/E 12/31/16
B. Bought 1 Costco 1.125% Senior Unsecured Maturing on 12/15/17:
| Moody's Rating | A1 (11/28/2012) |
| Standard & Poor's Rating | A+ (11/28/2012) |
| Fitch Rating | A+ (04/22/2016) |
YTM at Total Cost (99.971) = 1.159%
C. Bought 1 Compass Bank CD .8% Maturing 11/8/17
Continuing to build cluster in November 2017-January 2018.
Compass Bank is a wholly owned U.S. banking subsidiary of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. ADR (BBVA)
Clustering Maturities Near FED Meetings Where Increase in FF Currently Expected
I also own 1 senior unsecured bond issued by Compass: BOUGHT 1 Compass Bank 5.9% Subordinated Note Maturing in 2026 at 76.75; Bond Detail (rated at Baa3 by Moody's and BBB by S& P)
D. Bought 1 Bank of China CD .8% Maturing on 8/15/17
Continuing to build July and August 2017 cluster.
E. Bought 2 JPM 1.05% CDs (monthly interest) Maturing on 2/15/2018
C. Bought 1 Compass Bank CD .8% Maturing 11/8/17
Continuing to build cluster in November 2017-January 2018.
Compass Bank is a wholly owned U.S. banking subsidiary of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. ADR (BBVA)
Clustering Maturities Near FED Meetings Where Increase in FF Currently Expected
I also own 1 senior unsecured bond issued by Compass: BOUGHT 1 Compass Bank 5.9% Subordinated Note Maturing in 2026 at 76.75; Bond Detail (rated at Baa3 by Moody's and BBB by S& P)
D. Bought 1 Bank of China CD .8% Maturing on 8/15/17
Continuing to build July and August 2017 cluster.
E. Bought 2 JPM 1.05% CDs (monthly interest) Maturing on 2/15/2018
A. Bought 1 Centerpoint Energy 2.25% General Mortgage Bond Maturing 8/1/22
Finra Page Bond Detail (prospectus linked at FINRA Page)
The Centerpoint general mortgage bonds are second lien bonds to the outstanding first mortgage bonds. The amount of first mortgage bonds outstanding was $102M as of 9/30/16 which is not significant for this company.
Moody's at A1
Fitch at A
Fitch Press Release: 1/9/17
The Centerpoint general mortgage bonds are second lien bonds to the outstanding first mortgage bonds. The amount of first mortgage bonds outstanding was $102M as of 9/30/16 which is not significant for this company.
Moody's at A1
Fitch at A
Fitch Press Release: 1/9/17
YTM at Total Cost (98.328 ) = 2.579%
Centerpoint is a distribution and transmission electric utility with more than 5 million meters. It is also has a 54.1% limited partner interest in Enable Midstream Partners LP (ENBL).
Stock Quote - CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP)
CNP sold last January $300M in general mortgage bonds maturing in 2027. CenterPoint Energy subsidiary closes on $300 million of general mortgage bonds. That bond was sold with a 3% coupon: Prospectus
CNP sold last January $300M in general mortgage bonds maturing in 2027. CenterPoint Energy subsidiary closes on $300 million of general mortgage bonds. That bond was sold with a 3% coupon: Prospectus
3. Oil as a Hedge Against What Trump May Do Further To Piss Off Muslim and Spanish Speaking Oil Producing Nations
I am undertaking a tiny, tiny rotation into Canadian energy companies that is not worth noting but I will discuss nonetheless.
I am undertaking a tiny, tiny rotation into Canadian energy companies that is not worth noting but I will discuss nonetheless.
I need to give oil as a hedge more thought. I am talking about hedges against Trump induced economic turbulence I regard that scenario as worth hedging against now. Yes, I know that Trump is really sane and is just acting crazy as if being President is just another reality TV show.
One scenario is the U.S. leads the world into a worldwide recession caused by a deliberate effort to change the existing world economic order and trade relationships sufficient to cause widespread and negative repercussions worldwide. The result would have an adverse impact oil prices.
Another is that Muslim nations (possibly joined by Mexico and Venezuela) implement an oil embargo against the U.S. in retaliation for GOP policies, which sends crude up in price and increases the value of Canadian and U.S. oil assets. The embargo may last for days, weeks or months. U.S. strategic oil reserves would be tapped and shale producers would ramp up production, but that would be woefully insufficient to meet current U.S. demand.
The most that I can say now is that oil may be a hedge under a few possible future scenarios including the one mentioned above.
There are possible scenarios relating to supply and demand where I would not characterize the position as a hedge. The purchase may be justified, for example, by demand coming into balance with supply. OPEC output cuts at record 90% compliance: IEA - MarketWatch; Global oil demand improves but slowdown still forecast for 2017: IEA
Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)
Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)(current 2017 prediction is total world consumption of 98.09 million barrels per day with production at 98.03)
That may happen later this year depending on OPEC members complying with their quotas, an acceleration of economic growth, and other factors (e.g. shale production levels)
There are possible scenarios relating to supply and demand where I would not characterize the position as a hedge. The purchase may be justified, for example, by demand coming into balance with supply. OPEC output cuts at record 90% compliance: IEA - MarketWatch; Global oil demand improves but slowdown still forecast for 2017: IEA
Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)
Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)(current 2017 prediction is total world consumption of 98.09 million barrels per day with production at 98.03)
That may happen later this year depending on OPEC members complying with their quotas, an acceleration of economic growth, and other factors (e.g. shale production levels)
Sample Trades:
A. Bought 50 SPGYF at $8.16:
Quote U.S. Grey Market Listed Ordinary Shares: Whitecap Resources Inc. (SPGYF)
Quote CAD Priced Toronto Listed Shares: Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP:TOR)
Home - Whitecap Resources - Oil & Natural Gas Resource Player Operating in Western Canada
What interests me about Whitecap is their rapid increase in reserves. Reserve Information The 2016 increases come from acquisitions made during the first half of 2016. Average production levels increased 18% to 49,251 boe/d in the 2016 third quarter compared to the 2015 quarter.
Hedging - Whitecap Resources
The company does pay a monthly dividend of C$.0233. Dividend Information - Whitecap Resources The dividend rate higher before the crude oil price decline started, but the company did not eliminate the dividend in response.
Those acquisitions were funded mostly by selling or issuing new shares:
Page 12 WCP_MDA_Q3_2016.pdf
In early January, Whitecap sold C$200M of 3.36% senior secured notes maturing in January 2022.
As previously mentioned in a comment, I also bought small lots in the following small cap Canadian E & P companies: Raging River Exploration Inc. (RRX:TOR) and Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV:NYSE).
Subsequent to my RRX purchase, Raging River made this press announcement that was received favorably by the market: Raging River Exploration Inc. Announces 2016 Year End Reserves, Preliminary 2016 Results and Operations Update
B. Bought Back 100 ENY at $8.63 :
The Guggenheim Canadian Energy Income ETF (ENY) is a USD price ETF that owns Canadian E & P and energy infrastructure stocks.
TOP TEN Holdings:
ENY-Sponsor's Webpage
I do not approve of Cameco (CCJ), a uranium producer, being included in the index that this ETF tracks before fees and expenses.
Of the stocks in the top ten, I have owned in the past Suncor, Pembina, and PrairieSky.
As with any USD price ETF that owns Canadian stocks, the ETF price will reflect the currency the CAD/USD conversion rate and the prices of the owned stocks in Canadian dollars. In short, two ways too win or lose or sometimes one of both.
I will dart into and out of this ETF repeatedly.
I last rented the security for a few weeks and realized a $73.9 gain.
Snapshots of other transactions, showing short holding periods:
 |
| 2014 +$296.37 |
 |
| 2012 +$37.58 |
 |
| 2008 +$138.73 |
 |
| 2007 $78.95 |
The most fortunate elimination occurred with the 2014 disposition. Sold 155+ ENY at $17.55 (7/5/14 Post) Shortly after that sell, the shares started to crater as crude oil crashed in price and the CAD declined precipitously against the U.S.D., a double whammy for a Canadian energy ETF priced in USDs.
C. Added 10 PEO Shares (commission free trade) :
I will probably still have a number of commission free trades when my 1 year period runs out. I am using some of them to buy small amounts in existing positions that have come down in price and generally fit into one of my themes.
I had liquidated my PEO position in August 2013: Item # 1 Sold 104+ PEO at $27.06-Bought 100 of the Stock CEF PEO at $24.98 (August 2012) I realized a total return on that 100 share lot of $356.78 or 14.24%. If I had kept the shares, then the total return with dividends reinvested would be 4.84% starting on 8/6/12 through 2/8/16. The problem was that energy stocks started to crater in the 2014 summer and are slowly recovering from their pre-crude price collapse prices.
I sold 100 shares in 2011: Item # 3 SOLD: 100 PEO @ 30.62 (7/27/11 Post)
I started last year building it back up and am now up to 151+ shares, more than I owned previously.
When looking at the historical prices, it is important to keep in mind that this stock CEF pays out significant dividends, mostly sourced from long term capital gains.
The fund has a minimum 6% annual distribution rate policy and has paid distributions for the last 80 years. It was founded shortly before the 1929 stock market crash. Adams Funds
Top Ten Holdings as of 12/31/16:
Data as of Date of Trade 2/9/17
Closing Market Price: $19.95
Closing Net Asset Value: $23.59
Discount: -15.43%
Sourced: PEO Adams Natural Resources- CEF Connect
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report: ADAMS NATURAL RESOURCES FUND, INC. - FORM N-30B - SEPTEMBER 30, 2016 (cost=$500.146+M, value as of 9/30/16=$655+M)
D. Bought 100 Shares of XEG:CA-Impact of Border Adjustment Tax:
I also bought back 100 of iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF (XEG:TOR).
Unlike ENY, this Canadian ETF does not own energy infrastructure companies and is a pure play on Canadian E & P companies. It will have a far higher weighting in major Canadian energy companies.
TOP Ten:
I recently bought and sold a 100 share position:
The largest holding, Suncor, recently reported better than expected earnings. Suncor posts strong Q4 earnings-CBC News; Suncor credits higher oil prices and better production for fourth quarter profit | Financial Post
A border tax will be a major negative for Canadian E & P companies.
Until there is further clarity on this issue, I will keep my exposure to very low and insignificant levels.
It would do Trump supporters good to pay more at the pump due to a 20% levy on imported oil. The middle class Trump voters should be happy to pay more for energy, clothing, electronics and other imported products to finance a cut in the corporate tax rate which will allow corporations to increase dividends paid to those who are well off.
At a minimum we will know soon enough whether corporations will use their cut money to hire more workers in any meaningful way or use the extra cash to buyback stock, increase the dividends, and management compensation packages.
4. Continued Paring Stock Allocation: This is a real slow mo process.
A. Sold 100 MLGF at $26.8 (commission free trade) :
Profit Snapshot: +$384.84
Quote: Malaga Financial Corp. (MLGF)
Item # 2 Bought 100 MLGF at $22.95: Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 6/22/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Malagra was part of my regional bank basket: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: REGIONAL BANK BASKET STRATEGY GATEWAY POST (snapshots of realized gains and losses= Net Gain of $33,165.42 as of 2/2/17)
The rationale was profit taking in stocks that I viewed as having limited upside potential at current prices. While E.P.S. did pick up the 4th quarter, earnings growth has been hard to generate for this bank. The fully diluted 2016 E.P.S. number was $1.88, up from $1.87 in 2015. Malaga Bank - Press Release Loan growth was anemic at 1%.
At a $26.8 price, the TTM P/E multiple is 14.25 which is high IMO for a bank that grew earnings Y-O-Y by 1%. I would not call that multiple irrational, extreme or stretched however. The bank also has good ROE and capital ratios and a very low NPL ratio.
I am also motivated in part by the decision to reduce my overall stock allocation, so positions have to be selected using some criteria to fulfill that objective.
Another factor, which is commonplace with lightly traded stocks, the bid/ask price was extremely narrow for this thinly traded stock when I sold my shares.
I am also concerned that regional banks have run too far, too fast in a post-election bounce.
B. Sold 50 FNCL at $34.47 :
This ETF can be traded by all Fidelity customers on a commission free basis provided the security is held for more than 30 days.
The primary motives for this sell were to harvest a quick profit and to reduce my stock allocation. Another reason was the decline in interest rates that started in mid-December 2016. Financial stocks shot up in price after the election based on a consensus opinion that Trump's policies would lead to higher interest rates and to a decrease in financial regulations.
The Bond Ghouls are starting to question the consensus view about interest rates rising. Why? Hard to say as usual. It may be due to the GOP being unable to agree to a tax cut plan and/or concerns that Trump could spark a major flight to safety out of stocks into bonds. Another reason, which existed post-election when interest rates spiked up and exists now, is the continuation of extremely abnormal interest rate policies by the ECB, other European CBs and the BOJ that make U.S. bonds look good even at historically low yields.
Profit Snapshot: +$278.53
Quote: Fidelity MSCI Financials Index ETF (FNCL)
5. Continued to Add to Gold Mining Stocks as a Hedge-Impact of Border Adjustment Tax
I will trade these positions.
The Bond Ghouls and Stock Jocks are now focusing on the promised tax cuts and the stimulus and inflationary impacts of those cuts.
Gold is back out of favor even though no one has seen Trump's plan and only know for certain that he believes that the cuts will be "phenomenal" as in "huge".
If the plan includes a border tax adjustment, economists believe that the USD will soar in value which would be bad for gold. I remain skeptical. The result may end up being higher prices for imports with no major changes in the USDs value to offset the tax.
My gut tells me that the border tax will increase imported price by anywhere from 75% to 100% of the tax.
12 Stocks to Benefit Most From the House Tax Plan - Barron's
Perceptions about the future can be the only current reality however, until proven false by subsequent developments. So, I would anticipate a decline in gold price if a border tax adjustment is proposed by the Administration, even if it unlikely to pass.
The long term impact of the corporate tax cut could turn out to be a negative for the USD as budget deficits increase and the fiscal health of the U.S. government is called into question by more investors than now. Sure, tax cuts and spending increases can juice GDP growth some over the short term, but the continuation of parabolic increases in the federal debt couple with higher interest rates will only move forward the day of reckoning for the U.S. and its currency.
I am more likely to flip gold mining ETFs faster than individual gold mining stocks. Both the stocks and the ETFs are trades.
ETFs have management expenses that will negatively impact their returns and will own stocks that will underperform. The trick is to pick individual stocks that will perform better than the ETFs.
A. Bought 50 GG at $16.88 (used commission free trade)
Quote: Goldcorp Inc. (GG)
I discussed earlier buying a 50 share lot on the Toronto exchange using CADs. Sample Trades (SNY, OMER, PWFPRT, THO:CA, G:CA)(scroll to Bought 50 Goldcorp at C$19.23
I have nothing to add to that post.
Toronto Quote: Goldcorp Inc. (G:TOR)
NYSE Quote: Goldcorp Inc. (GG:NYSE)
B. Sold 100 XGD:CA at C$14.41 after a brief holding period:
iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold Index ETF (XGD:TOR) is an ETF traded in Toronto that owns gold mining stocks. It is similar to the NYSE traded Gold Miners Equity ETF (GDX).
The 100 share XGD lot was bought on 1/31/17 and sold on 2/7/17.
I discussed buying this gold stock ETF in my last post. Observations and Sample of Recent Trades (CCNE, GLW, EGO, CGL:CA, XGD:CA): 2/7/17 (scroll to Bought 100 XGD:CA at C$13.28)
I harvested a profit on a gold stock ETF and bought one of the ETF's main holdings, hoping that the individual stock will perform better going forward as a trade. Goldcorp is the third largest holding in XGD:CA.
Profit:
 |
| XGD:GA 100 Shares |
While I have increased my weighting in both gold bullion through ETFs and gold mining stocks, I am still well below a 1% allocation to precious metals. I generally keep my allocation small since these securities pay no or negligible dividends, and I am an income focused investor. I also recognize that it is extremely difficult to call turns in PM prices, up or down. It is also important that I have characterized precious metals as being in a long term secular bear market that began shortly after I sold bullion in September 2011. Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Recent Gold and Silver Sales (9/15/11 Post) It is far too early to say that the current move up marks the end of that secular bear market.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members
