Economy:
The FED raised the FF range 75 basis points to 1.5% to 1.75% Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement The Fed has done nothing to tame the inflation beast, but is only very slowly moving to an interest rate level that may have some impact.
The FED also released its economic projections and dot plot: The Fed - June 15, 2022: FOMC Projections materials The FED is projecting that PCE inflation will fall to 2.7% next year, to 2.2% in 2023 and 2% in 2024. That will be accomplished by keeping the FF rate below 4% in 2023 and and at or below 3.375% in 2024:
+++
What Hundreds of Photos of Weapons Reveal About Russia’s Brutal War Strategy - The New York Times This investigation provides even more proof of Russia's crimes against humanity and war crimes.
Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister, tells BBC “we did not invade Ukraine” and there is “no war” there - BBC News - YouTube Why would Lavrov make these claims to a western audience since it just proves that Russia's government is a 100% pure Orwellian state.
59% of Fox News Viewers: Trump Acted Appropriately on Jan. 6
Texas GOP Declares Biden Illegitimate President In addition, the republicans declared that Texas has the right to succeed from the United States.
The platform adopted by the Texas GOP also called for the repeal of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. Permanent-Platform 6-16-2022.pdf. The GOP is not a conservative party.
GOP commission refuses to certify New Mexico primary vote - POLITICO; Conspiracy theories erupt into screams and threats as New Mexico counties certify vote - Los Angeles Times One of the republican commissioners who refused to certify the vote in a rural republican county was convicted for trespassing on Jan 6th. The New Mexico Supreme Court ordered the republicans to obey the law. After receiving that court order, 2 out of 3 republican commissioners decided to obey the law. The republicans are only trying to protect democracy or so they claim.
GOP Senate candidate releases 'RINO hunting' ad aimed at fellow Republicans In Trump's party, someone who is actually a conservative is called a RINO.
‘Avalanche’ of evidence proves Trump was engaged in a ‘multi-faceted criminal conspiracy’: legal expert - Raw Story I doubt that Donald will be charged with any of the crimes that he has committed. He is above the law.
++++
1. Corporate Bonds:
The corporate bonds discussed in Items A,B, and C below were bought as initial offerings sold at their $1,000 par value and were offered by Fidelity pursuant to its Corporate Notes Program.
I am including some purchases made within the past week just to highlight the pop in interest rates since earlier this year.
While I am nibbling on intermediate term bonds, which I define as maturing in 3 to 10 years from the date of purchase, I am concentrating my buying in short term maturities as part of an interest rate risk mitigation strategy.
If the interest rate outlook points to moderating inflation and the probability that rates are near a top range in 2023 or 2024, some of the proceeds from maturing short term bonds can be redirected into longer term ones.
A. Bought 1 Goldman Sachs 3% SU Maturing on 6/13/23:
%20%203%25%206:13:23.png)
Issuer: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)
I do not own any common shares.
Credit Ratings: A2/BBB+
B. Bought 1 JP Morgan 3.25% SU Maturing on 5/13/24:
%203.25%25%205:13:24.png)
Issuer: JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
I own a few common shares.
Credit Ratings: A2/A-
C. Bought 1 Dow Chemical 3.95% SU Maturing on 5/15/27:
%203.95%25%205:15:27%20.png){kind=small}
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Dow Inc.
Earnings Report for the Q/E 3/31/22
I own a few common shares, somewhere in the 5 to 10 share range.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail Dow Chemical will frequently sell bonds directly to retail investors using intermediaries like Fidelity. For this bond, the amount outstanding is only $1.067M which means that it is an illiquid issue that probably can not be sold prior to redemption.
FINRA does not link the prospectuses filed for Dow's retail notes. Dow Chemical will generally reserve the right to redeem at par value a few months after issuance which is the case for this note.
I am just replacing one of the Dow Chemical bonds that the company recently redeemed early as part of my diversification strategy. In this context, diversification includes (1) interest rate risk mitigation through a ladder strategy and (2) credit risk mitigation which includes limiting my dollar exposure to each issuer and owning so many different bonds that I have created what amounts to a diversified investment grade U.S. bond fund.
Credit Ratings: Baa1/A
This order was placed in early May. I would not now buy this bond for less than a 4.5% yield.
D. Bought 1 Treasury 2.125% Coupon Maturing on 2/29/24 at 99.125:
%202.125%25%202:29:24%20.png){kind=small}
Purchased on 5/17/22
YTM at TC = 2.629%
Current Yield at TC = 2.14%, rounded down.
E. Bought 1 Treasury 2.125% Coupon Maturing on 2/29/24 at 98.246:
I now own 4 in my Schwab taxable account and 1 in a RI.
Purchased on 6/16/22
This is the same bond discussed in Item 1.D. above.
YTM at Total Cost = 3.195%, up from 2.629% for the 5/17/22 purchase.
Current Yield at TC = 2.16%, rounded down.
The lower price compared to the 5/17/22 will primarily impact the YTM rather than the current yield.
F. Bought 1 Treasury 1.75% Coupon Maturing on 5/15/23 at 99.021:
%201.75%25%205:15:23%20.png){kind=small}
Purchased on 6/17/22
I now own 3 bonds including 1 in a RI account.
I am discussing this purchase out of time order to highlight the rise in short term yields since March 2022. The reasons for buying treasuries in 1 bond lots are interest rate risk mitigation in a rising rate environment and an insignificant yield difference compared to buying more.
When I started to buy treasuries in my Schwab account in April, I knew that interest rates would rise and the purchases would be paid for out of a Schwab sweep account that has a .01% yield then and now. I did not know how fast or high short term treasury yields would rise.
YTM at Total Cost = 2.8259%
Current Yield at TC = 1.7673%
The prior purchase was made on 4/8/22 at 99.7606, creating at that price a 1.972% YTM. But there is more to the interest rate risk calculation than just comparing YTMs. The return from the broker sweep account used as a funding source has to be taken into consideration.
G. Bought 1 Treasury 2.25% Coupon Maturing on 12/31/23 at 98.709:
%202.25%25%2012:31:23%20.png){kind=small}
This bond was purchased on 6/17/22.
YTM at Total Cost = 3.074%
Current Yield at TC = 2.28%, rounded up.
The prior purchase in this account was at 99.797 on 4/6/22.
I now own 2 bonds.
H. Bought 1 Treasury 1.375% Coupon Maturing on 8/31/2013 at 98.1329:
%201.375%25%208:31:23.png){kind=small}
Purchased on 6/21/22
YTM at Total Cost = 2.979%
Current Yield at TC = 1.4%
The prior purchase in this taxable account was at 99.2217 (3/25/22)
I now own 3 bonds including 1 in a RI account.
I. Bought 1 Northern States Power 2.6% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 5/15/23 at a Total cost of 99.556:
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL)
I discussed this purchase in a 6/16/22 comment.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus)
Credit Ratings: Aa3/A
YTM at Total Cost = 3.102%
Current Yield at TC = 2.61%
Make Whole Expires on 11/15/22:
Issuer may call at par value + accrued interest on or after 11/15 to the maturity date in May 2023.
This purchase replaces the Northern States 2.15% first mortgage bond that would have matured on 8/15/22 but was redeemed at par value on 5/19/22:
 |
| Profit Snapshot: +$15.83 |
J. Early Redemption of Public Service of Colorado 2.25% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 9/15/22:
Profit Snapshot: +$17.48
%20+$17.48%20.png){kind=small}
Public Service of Colorado is another wholly owned subsidiary of Xcel. The make whole provision for this bond expired on 3/15/22. Bond Detail-Prospectus Linked On or after 3/15/22, 6 months prior to maturity, the issuer could redeem at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest.
2. Small Ball:
I am currently limiting my stock purchases to the amount of cash flow received from interest and dividend payments. Cash flow from interest payments will gradually rise to at least a $30K annual rate sometime in 2023 and more probable than not as high as $40K based on current interest rate trends.
I am buying dividend paying stocks and CEFs in small lots, mostly adding to existing positions as I average down.
The decline so far in stock indexes is a multiple reset driven primarily by rising interest rates and the related issue of problematic inflation.
An economic recession that leads to an earnings recession could accelerate the S & P 500 decline to another 15% to 30%, depending on the severity IMO. I do not view a recession as inevitable but the odds of one developing within the next 18 months is high IMO.
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment- St. Louis Fed
In this post, I am discussing mostly small ball average downs in stocks where more substantive discussions can be found in recent posts which I link.
YTD Total Returns through 6/21/22:
SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): -20.45%
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): -30.87%
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM): -24.06%
First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF (FDN): -43.74%
Technology Select Sector SPDR® ETF (XLK): -26.37%
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY): -37.42%
ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN): -41.2%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): -25.01%
Volatility Indexes:
CBOE Volatility Index- S&P 500
CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index
CBOE NASDAQ 100 Volatility Index
A. Bought 2 MDT at $88.5:
Quote: Medtronic PLC (MDT)
MDT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
52 week high: $135.89
I recently discussed MDT. Item # 2.G. Started MDT - Bought 1 at $99.5; 1 at $97.87, 1 at $95.85 (6/9/22 Post)
New average cost per share = $94.13 (5 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.68 per share
Yield at AC per share = 2.889%
Next Ex Dividend: 6/23/22
MDT's revenues will not be materially impacted by a recession.
I will continue buying in 1 or 2 share lots.
B. Added to HBI - Bought 5 at $9.79:
Quote: Global X NASDAQ-100 Covered Call ETF Overview
"The Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD) follows a “covered call” or “buy-write” strategy, in which the Fund buys the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index and “writes” or “sells” corresponding call options on the same index."
Last Discussed: Item # 3.C. Bought 2 QYLD at $19.47; 1 at $18.57; 3 at $17.66 - Schwab Account (5/19/22 Post)
Sponsor's website: Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF
Expense Ratio = .6%
Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD)-Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars, recently reduced from 4 stars)
Investment category: Monthly Income Generation
Average cost per share this account = $20.32 (26 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at a variable rate
Yield at AC this account: 11.57% (using the $2.35 per share paid in 2021 which excludes a $.499 per share special distribution sourced from short term capital gains that went ex dividend on 12/30/21. So far in 2022 it looks like the dividend will be at a lower annual rate.)
D. Bought 1 PHG at $20.49:
Quote: Koninklijke Philips N.V. ADR
52 week high: $50.71
Website: Global home | Philips
I recently discussed the last earnings report. Item # 4.H. Added 1 PHG at $26.91; 1 at $26.2 (5/5/22 Post); Royal Philips - 6-K
Last Discussed: Item # 3.N. Bought 1 PHG at $24.95; 1 at $24.95 (5/19/22 Post)
1 Year Chart: Major Bear Market Trend
Investment Category: Contrarian Value
Average cost per share: $27.83 (10+ shares)
Dividend: Annual
The last dividend was $.9641 per ADR share which went ex dividend on 5/12.
Yield at AC: 3.46% (using last annual payment)
The odds of a good total return is much higher at 10 years than at one. Or put another way, I do not expect my PHG position to turn positive within the next 2 years given its hopefully short term problems which I have previously discussed here. This is the flip side of Batesian statistical analysis that I discussed in a March 2009 post when applied to unrealized gains of long term positions.
E. Bought 5 NCZ at $3.04:
Quote: Virtus AllianzGI Convertible & Income Fund II Overview
Sponsor's Website: Virtus AllianzGI Convertible & Income Fund II
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 1/31/22)
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
Leverage: Yes, substantial at 50.5% as of 6/17/22
Last Discussed: Item # 3.K. Bought 30 NCZ at $3.68; 20 at $3.49; 10 at $3.33 (5/19/22 Post)
Data Date of 6/16/22 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $3.46
Closing Market Price: $2.98
Discount: -13.87%
Sourced: NCZ - CEF Connect
Average cost per share: $4.07 (135+ shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.0375 per share ($.45 annually)
Substantial ROC support.
I started to reinvest the dividend in May based on the current discount and to average down randomly.
Yield at $4.07 = 11.06% (assumes continuation of current penny rate)
Last Ex Dividend: 6/10/22
F. Bought 5 MPW at $14.4:
Quote: Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPW)
Website: MPT | Home: At the Very Heart of Healthcare
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
New Average Cost per share = $17.29 (70 shares)
I am averaging down in 5 share lots until I hit 100 shares.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.29 per share ($1.16 annually)
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (NYSE: MPW) - Dividend History
Yield at AC = 6.71%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/15/22
I discussed MPW in my last post. Item # 4.A. Bought 5 MPW at $17.68; 5 at $17.55; 5 at $17.21; 5 at $16.65; 5 at $15.8; 5 at $150.05 (6/15/22 Post)
I discussed the 2022 first quarter report in this post: Item # 2.A. Bought 10 MPW at $17.97 (5/12/22 Post)
G. Bought 5 BDN at $9.27-Schwab Account:
Quote: Brandywine Realty (BDN)- an Office REIT
Our Properties | Brandywine Realty Trust
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.E. Restarted BDN - Bought 10 at $10.79 (5/26/22 Post)
I discussed the 2022 first quarter report in that recent post.
Last Elimination: Item # 2.F. Eliminated BDN - Sold 15+ at $13.51 and 20 at $13.5 in Schwab Account (1/7/22 Post)
Average cost per share = $10.28 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share ($.76 annually)
Yield at new AC per share = 7.39%, rounded down.
Next Ex Dividend: 7/5/22
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain. I will switch to 10-20 share lots at below $9.
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 1.K. Sold 1+ BDN at $13.75-All Shares Bought with Dividends in Fidelity Taxable (5/16/21 Post)($3.3); Item # 1.D. Sold 50 BDN at $12.9 in Schwab Taxable Account (3/27/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.72); Item # 2.B. Sold 101+ BDN at $15.33 (11/9/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $100.4); Item # 7 Sold 158+ BDN at $15.28 (5/24/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $72.31); Item # 2 Sold 100 BDN at $12.38-ROTH IRA (profit snapshot = $100.5)
BDN Realized Gains to Date = $440.52
H. Bought 1 CALF at $33.5:
Quote: Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF Overview
Sponsor's Website: CALF | Pacer ETFs
Last Discussed: Item # 2.O. Bought 1 CALF at $37.52; 2 at $36.48 (5/26/22 Post)
Average Cost per share = $40.84 (15 shares)
I. Bought 1 SLG at $48:
Quote: SL Green Realty Corp.
SL Green Realty Corp Profile | Reuters
Website: Homepage - SL Green - NYC's Largest Commercial Landlord
Investment Categories: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy and Monthly Income Generation
Chart: Bear Market Trend starting in 2015, marked by rapid and significant percentage declines in March 2000 and March-June 2021.
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 2.N. Added to SLG- Bought 1 at $62.25, 1 at $59.95 (5/26/22 Pos) I discussed the 2022 first quarter report in that post.
Last Discussed: Item # 4.F. Added to SLG- Bought 1 at $57.48; 1 at $56.25; 1 at $54.2, 1 at $52.7, 1 at $50.4, 1 at $49.35 (6/15/22 Post)
New Average Cost per share: $60.61 (15+ shares)
Dividends: Monthly at $.3108 per share ($3.7296 annually)
SL Green Realty Corp. Announces Common and Preferred Stock Dividends
Dividend History | SL Green Realty Corp.
Yield at New AC: 6.15%, rounded down.
Next Ex Dividend: 6/29/22
Debt levels and refinancing costs are probably the main concerns underlying the recent price decline.
The decline in March 2020 was caused by the pandemic.
The most general concern weighing on price IMO is the trend toward working at home.
Debt levels and Maturities:
Sourced: SEC Filed Supplemental for the Q/E 3/31/22 at page 22 I own 2 SLG 3.25% SU bonds that mature in October. The outstanding principal amount is $500M.
Included in the previous table is SLG's unconsolidated share of joint venture debt based on its ownership interest:
 |
| Page 23, Supplemental Linked Above |
J. Bought 5 ILPT at $13.1:
Quote: Industrial Logistics Properties Trust
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
I discussed the 2022 first quarter report in this post. Item # 6.I. Added to ILPT - Bought 5 at $19.69; 5 at $17.65 (4/28/22 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 ("As of March 31, 2022, our portfolio was comprised of
Management: External
The last acquisition was Monmouth REIT that significantly increased ILPT's debt, an unfavorable outcome when interest rates are rising. This press release discusses the financing for this all cash purchase. Industrial Logistics Properties Trust Completes Acquisition of Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corporation
Chart: Bear Market Trend since topping at $28.66 in October 2021.
There are 2 primary reasons IMO for the price decline in my opinion: (1) the price paid for Monmouth and the use of short term debt to finance that acquisition and (2) concerns about how high interest rates will go in order to tame problematic inflation, a concern that is broadly applicable to REITs and stocks in general. The question is whether the 50%+ decline from the 52 week high more than compensates for those risks in light of the dividend yield and Price/Cash Flow.
New Average cost per share = $17.47 (85+ shares)
I will round up to 100+ shares in 1 more purchase somewhere below $13.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.33 per share ($1.32 per share)
I have turned on dividend reinvestment based on valuation.
Yield at AC per share = 7.56%, rounded up.
Last Ex Dividend: 4/22/22
K. Bought 5 AMKBY at $11.87:
Quotes:
USD: A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S ADR
DKK: MAERSK.B (Denmark); Reuters Profile Page
52 week high: $19.14
ADR Ratio: 1 ADR = .005 Ordinary
Investor Relations - A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 4.B. Bought 5 AMKBY at $15.25; 5 at $14.28; 5 at $12.9 (4/21/22 Post)
Investment Categories: Contrarian Value/Large Cap Valuation
TTM P/E as of 6/17/22 = 1.982
A. P. Moller Maersk PE Ratio This calculation uses the symbol AMKAF which is the ordinary shares priced in DKK. Another website has the TTM P/E at 2.24. A. P. Moller Maersk A/S PE Ratio (TTM) & PE Ratio (TTM) Charts - AMKBF | GuruFocus The current TTM P/E makes sense only if earnings are about to collapse IMO.
New Average Cost per share = $14.26 (35 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 6/17/22 after add |
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.I. Eliminated AMKBY - Sold 25 at $16.98 (1/7/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $80.
I do not have access to any analyst reports.
L. Bought 5 ORCC at $12.20:
Quote: Owl Rock Capital Corp. - An Externally Managed BDC
Owl Rock Capital Corporation - Investor Relations
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.F. Added to ORCC-Bought 5 at $11.65 (11/13/20 Post); Item # 1.J. Added 4 ORCC at $12.02 (9/12/20 Post); Item # 4.E. Started ORCC-Bought 10 at $12.67; 1 at $12.59; 5 at $12.27 and 5 at $11.95 (6/27/2020 Post)
2021 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 30 and ends at page 64)
New Average cost per share this account: $12.24 (35 Shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 6/19/22 after add |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.31 per share (regular only)
Owl Rock Capital Corporation-Dividends
After selling shares purchased with dividends, I turned off dividend reinvestment. Item # 2.K. Sold 1.658 ORCC at $14.17-Fidelity Taxable (5/28/2021 Post)
Yield at AC = 10.13%
Next Ex Dividend: 6/29/22
Net Asset Value per share history:
3/31/22: $14.88
12/31/21: $15.08
12/31/20: $14.74
12/31/19: $15.24
IPO was in July 2019, priced to the public at $15.5 per share. Prospectus
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): Owl Rock Capital (ORCC) SEC Filed Press Release
NII per share at $.31, with consensus at $.331 per Fidelity;
Net asset value per share = $14.88, down from $15.08 as of 12/31/21;
"As of March 31, 2022, based on fair value, our portfolio consisted of 74.0% first lien senior secured debt investments, 14.7% second lien senior secured debt investments, 2.1% unsecured debt investments, 2.3% investment funds and vehicles, 1.9% preferred equity investments, and 5.0% common equity investments";
"As of March 31, 2022, 98.8% of our debt investments based on fair value in our portfolio were at floating rates";
Declared regular quarterly dividend of $.31 per share
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 (summary of investments starts at page 4)
 |
| Page 114, 10/Q |
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividends paid before any ROC adjustment to the tax cost basis.
M. Bought 5 FPF at $17.82-Schwab Taxable:
Quote: First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund Overview
The fund owns mostly equity preferred stocks but also has some exposure to exchange traded bonds.
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
Sponsor's Website: First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF)
FPF-Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars)
Leveraged: Yes, substantial at 32.2% as of 6/17/22
Last Discussed: Item # 2.D. Added 5 FPF at $18.82s (5/26/22 Post); Item # 4.G. Added 5 FPF at $20.44; 4 at $20.15 (5/5/22 Post)
Last SEC Filed Report on Holdings (as of 1/31/22)
Average cost per share: $20.96 (123+ shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.1275 ($1.53 annually)
The rise in borrowing costs will make it more likely that the dividend will have to be cut as the spread between that cost and the income generated by owned securities contracts.
I am currently reinvesting the dividend given the discount to net asset value per share and as a means to randomly and regularly average down at market prices.
Yield at AC per share: 7.3%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/1/22
Sell Discussions: Item # 2 Sold 103 FBF at $22.03-Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 3/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot $19.48); Item # 4- Sold 100 FPF at $22.83 (7/5/14 Post)(profit snapshot: $56.55)
N. Added $50 to FTKLX at $10.57:
Quote: Fidelity Disruptive Technology Fund Overview
Average cost per share at $12.81 (21+ shares)Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
