Economy:
U.S. gains just 49,000 jobs in January. Labor market still under acute stress - MarketWatch The anemic number reflects the resurgence in the pandemic last month. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3% from 6.7%. The job numbers for December and January were revised down by 159,000.
Average hourly earnings increased by 6 cents. The average workweek increased by .3 to 35 hours. Employment Situation Summary The U-6 number decreased to 11.1% from 11.7% in December. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Private companies added 174,000 jobs in January, vs 50,000 estimate, ADP says
New unemployment claims for W/E 1/30 at 779K vs. consensus at 830K.
U.S. productivity falls 4.8% in the 4th quarter to mark biggest drop since 1981 - MarketWatch Even with that decline, productivity increased by 2.6% in 2020, the fastest rate since 2010. The 2020 second and third quarters experienced large increases which can occur during recessions as firms keep their most productive employees.
++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
S & P 500 P/E Ratios 2/5/21:
GAAP TTM = 43.92
Non-GAAP Estimated Forward 12 months: 22.71
Dividend Yield = 1.5%
Sourced: P/E & Yields
On 12/18/20, the forward non-GAAP P/E was 26.25 with the GAAP TTM at 42.08, as noted in my 12/19/20 post.
The current TTM GAAP P/E at 43.92 would now include generally positive results for the 2020 4th quarter.
The optimism about the future is being reflected in the 3.79 point decline in the estimated non-GAAP forward 12 month earnings. Last week's stock market reflected increased optimism about the future, when evangelical optimism was already the consensus opinion.
Fiscal stimulus prospects and strong earnings tailwind may propel stocks in the week ahead
Shiller PE Ratio = 35.39
Market Cap to GDP - The Buffett Indicator - Updated Historical Chart
Commodities Are Starting to Rally. Here are the Stocks and Funds to Play It. | Barron's One is GSG which I recently discussed. I am not convinced that the commodity bear market is over. Item # 1.D. Bought 10 GSG at $12.17 (1/23/21 Post) The commodity funds have been places where money has to gone to die over the past decade or so.
Microcap stocks have been soaring — here are two strategies for investing in them from fund managers - MarketWatch Most of the time, I will own at least 50 stocks that would be classified as microcaps, particularly concentrated in regional bank stocks. There is a microcap ETF but it is loaded with garbage IMO which is inevitable when a fund owns 1,276 stocks. iShares Micro-Cap ETF | IWC That ETF has benefited by owning GME which is currently its largest position. GME may be expelled from that index when it is balanced; provided the market cap no longer meets the microcap definition. The index that IWC is rebalanced annually which last occurred in June 2020. Reconstitution frequently asked questions | FTSE Russell I doubt that GME will be kicked out when the rebalance occurs. The price has slid from an intraday high of $453 (1/28/21) to $63.77 yesterday. GME Historical Prices
Bridge Bancorp, Inc. and Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. Close Merger of Equals (I own an equity preferred stock originally issued by Dime. That preferred stock is now a BDGE obligation. "In addition, each share of Legacy Dime 5.50% Series A Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock has converted into one share of Dime 5.50% Series A Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock and beginning today will trade on The NASDAQ Global Select Market under the symbols “DCOMP”." I recently pared my position in one account Item # 2. A. Sold 30 of 80 DCOMP in Fidelity Taxable at $25.8 (1/9/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $170.48) The symbol, DCOMP, remained unchanged. I also own BDGE common shares and view this merger as a positive.
Bad news for Pfizer as blockbuster Xeljanz flunks safety study; Pfizer’s RA Hopeful Fails to Meet Co-Primary Endpoint in Safety Study | BioSpace; Pfizer Shares Co-Primary Endpoint Results from Post-Marketing Required Safety Study of XELJANZ® (tofacitinib) in Subjects with Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) | Pfizer (1/27/21). This may give a lift to ABBV's competing drug Rinvoq.
Alphabet (GOOGL) earnings Q4 2020 (revenue up 23%; Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $22.3 vs. consensus at $15.9)
eBay, Inc. Announces Redemption of Its Outstanding 6.00% Senior Notes Due 2056 (EBAYL) I own a few shares of this $25 par value exchange traded bond. One problem with exchange traded bonds is the asymmetric interest rate risk created by the lack of a make whole provision. EBAY had the option to redeem this bond at par value which is in its interest to do now given its coupon. The owners can not redeploy the proceeds into a similar rated investment grade bond (Baa1/BBB+) that generates the same yield. Yet, if interest rates had been rising to such an extent that EBAY could not refinance the bond at a better coupon, the company would allow the owners to keep the bonds that would be falling in price in that scenario. EBAYL could be called on or after 3/1/20 at par value + accrued and unpaid interest. There was call protection for five years after the IPO (prospectus filed on 2/23/16), which is typical for exchange traded bonds.
OFS Capital Corporation (OFS) Announces Certain Preliminary Estimates of Its Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Results; OFS Capital Corporation Prices Public Offering of $100,000,000 4.75% Notes Due 2026 ("The Company intends to use the net proceeds of the offering to fully or partially pay down, retire, or redeem certain of its outstanding indebtedness, which may include its 6.50% Notes due 2025 (the “6.50% Notes”), its 6.375% Notes due 2025 (the “6.375% Notes”), and/or the borrowings under its secured revolving credit facility with BNP Paribas.") The 2 senior unsecured debt obligations referenced above, are exchange traded baby bonds with $25 par values that can be called now at par value. Both closed last Friday at $25.1 indicating that investors were pricing a full call at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest.
Earnings Reports-Owned Stocks:
Altria Reports 2020 Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results; Provides 2021 Full-Year Earnings Guidance; Announces New $2 Billion Share Repurchase Program (GAAP E.P.S. at $1.03; adjusted to $.99 vs. consensus at $1.01 according to Fidelity; "Altria has a long-term objective of a dividend payout ratio target of approximately 80% of adjusted diluted EPS"; revenues net of excise taxes = $.5.055B up 5.9% from the 2019 4th quarter and beating estimate of $5.01B)
Amgen (AMGN) Reports Fourth Quarter And Full Year 2020 Financial Results (GAAP E.P.S. at $2.76 which includes amortization costs from an acquisition; Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $3.81 with consensus at ; guided 2021 non-GAAP E.P.S. to between $16 and $17 with revenues between $25.8B to $26.6B; AMGN grew its biosimilar to ABBV's Humira in Europe, where the drug has lost patent protection by 45% to top $100M; a key pipeline drug is the cancer drug sotorasib; Repatha sales increased 27% year-over-year for the fourth quarter, and +34% for 2020; Otezla generated $617 million of sales in the fourth quarter of 2020, and $2.2 billion for 2020; Enbrel, the largest revenue generator, had a 5% decline to $1.272B) I own less than 1 share since I view the stock at its current price to be unattractive, a lot depends on the pipeline coming through IMO. Amgen Submits Sotorasib New Drug Application To U.S. FDA For Advanced Or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer With KRAS G12C Mutation)
Brandywine Realty (BDN) Trust Announces Fourth Quarter, Full Year 2020 Results, Initiates 2021 Guidance, and Announces Investment Activity (FFO at $.36 per share; 2021 FFO guidance between $1.32-$1.42; core portfolio 93% leased; "98.3% of total cash-based rent due has been received from our tenants during the fourth quarter 2020, which represents a 98.5% collection rate from our office tenants"; and see Brandywine Realty Trust announces Joint Venture with a Global Institutional Investor for its planned 570,000 GSF mixed-use tower at 3025 JFK Blvd within 14-acre, $3.5 billion Schuylkill Yards Neighborhood)
Brookline Bancorp (BRKL) Announces Fourth Quarter Results ("net income of $26.7 million, or $0.34 per basic and diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to $18.7 million, or $0.24 per basic and diluted share, for the third quarter of 2020, and $22.2 million, or $0.28 per basic and diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2019."; efficiency ratio = 55.27%; ROE = 11.38%; ROTE = 13.79%; ROA = 1.2%; NIM= 3.23%, down from 3.43% Q/E 12/31/19; Charge off ratio = .24%; NPA Ratio = .5%; tangible book value per share = $9.96)
Capital Southwest (CSWC) Announces Financial Results for Third Fiscal Quarter Ended December 31, 2020 and Announces Increase in Total Dividends to $0.52 per share for the Quarter Ended March 31, 2021 (an internally managed BDC, net asset value per share = $15.74; NII per share pre-tax= $.52; NII per share after tax = .45; "Capital Southwest had tax expense of $1.5 million as compared to a tax benefit of $0.2 million in the previous quarter. The increase was primarily due to the write-off of the deferred tax asset at Capital Southwest Management Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of CSWC (“CSMC”). Effective December 31, 2020, CSMC merged with and into CSWC, which is not subject to corporate federal income taxes. As such, the deferred tax asset of approximately $1.4 million was written off. "; spillover income at $1.09 per share; redeemed a baby bond with a 5.95% coupon that would have matured in 2022 and sold $75M of $1K par value SU notes with a 4.5% coupon maturing in 2026.) I pared my position last week, which I will discuss in a subsequent post.
Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. (EBTC) Announces 2020 Financial Results (E.P.S. at $.82, up from $.74 for the Q/E 12/21/19; NIM = 3.59%; ROA =.82%; ROE = 9.92%; NPA Ratio = .95%)
First Busey (BUSE) Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Earnings (adjusted E.P.S. of $.62, up from $.57 in the 2019 4th quarter; GAAP E.P.S. at $.52 which included a fixed asset impairment charge related to closing 12 banking centers to cut expenses; tangible book value per share = $16.66; increased quarterly dividend by 1 cent to $.23 per share; efficiency ratio = 59.7%; NIM = 3.06%; NPA Ratio = .42%; BUSE has adopted CECL)
First Commonwealth (FCF) Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Earnings; Declares Quarterly Dividend and Announces Share Repurchase Program (E.P.S. $.27, same as the 2019 4th quarter; consensus at $.233 according to Fidelity; NIM = 3.26%, down from 3.73% in the 2019 4th quarter; core efficiency ratio = 56%; ROA = 1.13%; Core ROTE = 14.03%; NPA Ratio = .62%; Charge off ratio = .28%; Coverage ratio = 187.43%; tangible book value per share = $7.82; total capital ratio = 14.95; tangible equity to tangible assets = 8.6% and at 9.1% excluding PPP loans)
First Community Bankshares, Inc. (FCBC) Announces Fourth Quarter Results, Quarterly Cash Dividend, and Stock Repurchase Plan (E.P.S. reported at $.65, up from $.61 in the 2019 4th quarter; consensus at $.52 according to Fidelity; NIM = 4.18%; ROA = 1.54%; ROE = 10.82%; ROTE = 15.96%; NPL Ratio = 1.02%; NPA Ratio = .81%; Coverage Ratio = 118%; tangible book value per share = $16.37)
First Financial Northwest, Inc. (FFNW) Reports Net Income of $2.6 Million or $0.28 per Diluted Share for the Fourth Quarter and $8.6 Million or $0.88 per Diluted Share for the Year Ended December 31, 2020 (an increase of 2 cents per share over 2019 4th quarter; consensus at $.20, beat by 8 cents; NIM = 3.29%; tangible book value per share = $15.88; total capital ratio = 15.6%; Charge off ratio = none; NPL Ratio = .19%; NPA Ratio = .18%; ROA = .77%; ROE = 6.76%; Efficiency Ratio = 68.55%) The asset quality ratios are excellent but the ROA, ROE and Efficiency Ratios are unfavorable IMO.
General Dynamics (GD) Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2020 Financial Results ("quarterly net earnings of $1 billion, or $3.49 per diluted share, on $10.5 billion in revenue. For the full year, net earnings were $3.2 billion, or $11.00 per diluted share, on revenue of $37.9 billion. . . Backlog grew 9.8% in the quarter to a record-high $89.5 billion")
Investors Bancorp, Inc. (ISBC) Announces Fourth Quarter Financial Results and Cash Dividend ("net income of $75.1 million, or $0.32 per diluted share, for the three months ended December 31, 2020 as compared to $64.3 million, or $0.27 per diluted share, for the three months ended September 30, 2020 and $48.7 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, for the three months ended December 31, 2019."; declared quarterly dividend of $.14 per share, a 17% increase; tangible book value per share = $10.97; Coverage Ratio = 265.17%; NPL Ratio = .56%; NPA Ratio = .47%; NIM = 2.98%; Net recovery of $2.1M; 156 offices) See also, Investors Bancorp Set to Join S&P SmallCap 600
Mackinac Financial Corporation (MFNC) Reports 2020 Fourth Quarter and Annual Results (E.P.S. reported at $.35, up from $.31 in the 2019 4th quarter; consensus at $.3 according to Fidelity; NIM = 4.37%; Texas Ratio = 4.82%; efficiency ratio = 71.84% (too high); NPA Ratio .48%; Coverage Ratio = 106.56%; Charge Off Ratio = .04%; ROA = .92%; ROE = 8.19%; tangible book value per share = $13.71; total capital ratio = 15.07%)
MSG Networks Inc. (MSGN) Reports Fiscal 2021 Second Quarter Results (E.P.S. $.72; consensus at $.59)
Northrim BanCorp (NRIM) Reports Earnings of $10.1 million, or $1.59 per Diluted Share, in 4Q20 and Earnings of $32.9 Million, or $5.11 Per Diluted Share, for the Year 2020 (E.P.S. at $1.59, up from $.69 in the 2019 4th quarter; consensus at $1.45; tangible book value per share = $32.88: NIM tax equivalent = 3.96%; ROA = 1.9%; ROE =18.22%; efficiency ratio = 65.31%; tangible equity to tangible assets = 9.76%; mortgage banking income continued at high levels = $14.811M for the 4th quarter, up from $6.388M in the 2019 4th quarter; smaller regional banks are benefiting more from this trend than larger ones less dependent on this income source; when mortgage banking income turns back down, Y-O-Y E.P.S. comparisons could easily turn negative)
Old Republic (ORI) Reports Results For The Fourth Quarter And Full Year 2020 (Non-GAAP E.P.S. reported at $.75, excludes $.99 per share for unrealized investment gains included in GAAP E.P.S. at $1.74; consensus non-GAAP at $.43 according to Fidelity; ORI paid $1 per share in special dividends last year)
Shaw Communications (SJR) Announces First Quarter Fiscal 2021 Results (Q/E 11/30/2) (E.P.S. C$.31; free cash flow C$225M; Revenue = C$1.37B; adjusted EBITDA margin = 44.3%; adjusted EBITDA = C$607M)
Shore Bancshares Reports 2020 Results (4th Q. E.P.S. reported at $.32 vs. consensus at $.235 according to Fidelity; tangible book value per share = $14.92; NIM = 3.08%; ROA = .82%; ROE = 8.88%; Coverage Ratio = 254.59%; NPL Ratio = .38%; NPA Ratio = .43%)
United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI) Announces Record Earnings for the Year 2020 (E.P.S. at $.71, up from $.62 in the 20194th quarter; consensus at $.59 according to Fidelity; NIM 3.33%; ROA = 1.41%; ROE = 8.51%; ROTE = 16.54%; tangible book value per share = $19.15; NPL Ratio = .75%; Charge off ratio at .16%)
++++
Covid:
New infections have been trending down over the past week. The NYT reported that there were 126,842 new infections on 2/4/21, down 30% from the 14 day average.
The Coronavirus Brazil Variant Shows the World's Vulnerability - The Atlantic (worth reading, the Brazil variant is causing reinfection and death in an area where scientists believe herd immunity had reached 70% from a prior outbreak, suggesting that the variant is evading the antibodies created from prior infections)
Super Bowl 2021: Some health officials worry about coronavirus spike - The Washington Post
++++++
Smartmatic sues Fox News, Giuliani and Sidney Powell election claims The defendants also include Lou Dobbs, Maria Bartiromo, and Jeanine Pirro as defendants: Complaint (285 pages)
They stormed the Capitol to overturn the results of an election they didn't vote in
The lawyers who pushed Trump’s falsehoods may soon be done lawyering - The Washington Post
Dana Nessel, Gretchen Whitmer Want Sidney Powell Disbarred | Law & Crime
Two Proud Boys members indicted for conspiracy in U.S. Capitol riots; Proud Boys celebrate Trump’s ‘stand by’ remark about them at the debate. - The New York Times
Trump backer held on pipe bomb charges, discussed attacking Twitter, Facebook
Perhaps Donald will pay Rachel Powell's attorneys fees and support her 8 children while she cools off in the slammer. A Pennsylvania Mother’s Path to Insurrection | The New Yorker She was identified by the FBI as the woman who used a bullhorn to rally the Trumpster assault on the Capitol and used a pole to break through a window.
Marjorie Taylor Greene's Controversies Are Piling Up. Republicans Are Quiet. - The New York Times There is a reason for their silence. The Majorie Taylor Greenes of America constitute a sizable portion of republican core voters.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, QAnon conspiracy promoter, rose with support from key Republicans - The Washington Post (The republican leaders in the House, McCarthy and Scalise, rewarded Greene for her past comments by appointing her to House Education and Budget Committees)
 |
| 1/30/21 Tweet |
Congressman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio, who will likely run for the senate seat being vacated by the incumbent Rob Portman (R), had this to say about Greene: She is "exactly the kind of fighter needed in Washington to stand with me against the radical left." Powerful GOP Rep. Jim Jordan accused of turning blind eye to sexual abuse as Ohio State wrestling coach Jordan denied the allegations.
Republicans gave Marjorie Taylor Greene private standing ovation I am not sure whether the republicans were applauding Ms. Greene's opposition to using Jewish lasers to start wildfires. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s space laser and the age-old problem of blaming the Jews - Vox I am not in favor of those lasers either, since I tired of wearing a tin foil hat as protection from those Jewish laser beams whenever I go outside.
The House voted to remove Ms. Greene from her 2 committee assignments. 11 republican House members joined all of the democrats.
FBI finds evidence of coordination at Capitol riot - The Washington Post; republished at MSN: ‘Be ready to fight’: FBI probe of U.S. Capitol riot finds evidence detailing coordination of an assault
When assaulting the Capitol on 1/6/21, the Trumpster insurrectionists knew of course that Congress was then engaged in tallying the electoral votes. Disrupting and preventing that constitutionally mandated proceeding was the goal.
Ryan Stephen Samsel charged with attacking officer who suffered concussion in US Capitol riot; Bucks County man in viral video of U.S. Capitol riot charged with assaulting police officer | PhillyVoice Samsel was wearing a red MAGA hat. He was on parole and had an outstanding warrant against him for a 2019 assault. The police officer who suffered the concussion lost consciousness. In TrumpWorld, all of those Trumpsters who participated in the riot wearing MAGA hats were antifa members who just wanted to hurt Trump and the republican party.
Who Supports QAnon? A Case Study in Political Extremism by Joseph Uscinski and Adam Enders: “Support for QAnon is born more of antisocial personality traits and a predisposition toward conspiracy thinking than traditional political identities and motivations.” (cited in Opinion | The QAnon Delusion Has Not Loosened Its Grip - The New York Times)
South Carolina GOP censures Rep. Tom Rice (R-SC) after his vote to impeach Trump
+++
1. Small Ball:
A. Started RYLD-Bought 5 at $23.17; 5 at $22.95:
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate
Recent Dividend History:
Next Ex Dividend: 2/22/21
Sponsor's Website: Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF
The fund owns shares in the Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF (VTWO) which is its only long position. The fund then writes corresponding call options on the same index.
Expense Ratio-high at .6%, will rise to .78% after a fee waiver that extends at least to 3/1/21. The sponsor recently extended this waiver date from 2/1/21.
Average cost per share: $23.05
Dividend Yield at AC = 10.67% (Using the $2.46 per share paid in the past 12 months through January 2021)
The buy-write strategy will produce far more dividend income than owning the iShares Russell 2000 ETF Overview (IWM). The total return for RYLD could be less compared to owning IWM when the Russell 2000 index is rising.
For example, IWM has a total return of 34.83% over the past 3 months through 2/5/21. iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Performance-Morningstar The total return for RYLD over the same period is 11.74%. Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF (RYLD) Performance-Morningstar
I own similar buy-write funds for the S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes. Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic ETF (QQQX), Nuveen S&P 500 Buy-Write Income ETF (BXMX) The largest position in buy-write ETFs is in BXMX which I have been trading in Roth IRA accounts to improve the total return. The taxable account BXMX position is currently at 136+ shares with an unrealized gain of $260.3. Dividends are being reinvested in both accounts.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.L. Added to BXMX-Bought 10 at $10.96 (11/13/20 Post)
I also own buy-write CEFs.
RYLD Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must reduce my average cost per share. I am reinvesting the dividend.B. Started ETR as a Placeholder-Bought 1 at $92.55:
Quote: Entergy Corp. (ETR)
Stock Information:
This is my first purchase of ETR's common shares. I do not view the current price as attractive. Subsequent purchases must be at the lowest price in the chain.
I have bought and sold first mortgage bonds issued by ETR's operating subsidiaries Entergy Arkansas, Entergy Louisiana, Entergy Mississippi and Entergy Texas. I currently own first mortgage bonds issued by all of those subsidiaries except for Entergy Arkansas.
ETR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Bond Substitute
Dividend: Quarterly at $.95 per share ($3.8 annually); last raised from $.93 effective for the 2020 4th quarter
10 year growth rate in dividend = 2%
Yield at $92.55: 4.11%
Next Ex Dividend Date: 2/11/21
Entergy Corporation Announces Quarterly Dividend Payment to Shareholders
5 Year Chart:
Recent support shows up in the low 90s.
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): Entergy Reports Third Quarter Earnings
I will discuss the 2020 4th quarter report when it is release, probably in a few days.
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (1/22/21): 4 stars, narrow moat, $107 FV
Argus (10/24/20): Buy with a $120 PT
S & P (10/29/20): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $111
C. Started EDOC-Bought 5 at $20.56:
Sponsor's Website: Telemedicine & Digital Health ETF
EDOC "seeks to invest in companies positioned to benefit from further advances in the field of telemedicine and digital health. This includes companies involved in Telemedicine, Health Care Analytics, Connected Health Care Devices, and Administrative Digitization."
Top 10 Holdings as of 1/29/21:
Expense Ratio: .68%
I view this expense ratio as high, which is the case for all thematic Global X ETFs.
Four Companies at the Center of the Telemedicine & Digital Health Revolution – Global X ETFs
This is another thematic ETF that owns stocks that I would probably not buy individually.
D. Eliminated MJ-Sold 10 at $17.34:
Quote: ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF Overview
The price continued to surge after I sold my 10 shares.
Closing Price 2/5/21: MJ $23.33 -$0.20 -0.85%
Profit: $59.71
Discussed: Item # 2.K. Bought 10 MJ at $11.37 (11/28/20 Post)
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
Sponsor's Website: MJ - ETFMG® (has a map of current state marijuana legalizations)
E. Eliminated IVZ in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 10 at $18.91:
Quote: INVESCO Ltd.
Profit Snapshot: +$105.91
Last Discussed: I discussed my reasons for selling IVZ in this post: Item # 1 Eliminated IVZ in two taxable accounts (1/1/21 Post) I still own a few shares in a Roth IRA account.
The last earnings report, released after this last sell, was better than expected. SEC Filed Press Release
F. Eliminated AIQ in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 9 at $27.8:
Quote: Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF
Profit Snapshot: +$37.27
Expense Ratio: .68%
Top 10 Holdings as of 1/29/21:
G. Added to GIS in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $55.9; 5 at $55.5; 5 at $55.2; 5 at $54.9; 5 at $54.5; 5 at $54;
TRMK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: +$52.64
Last Discussed: Item # 1.M. Added to TRMK-Bought 1 at $20.75 (10/10/20 Post); Item # 1.C. Restarted TRMK-Bought 5 at $22.3 (9/5/20 Post)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 annually); last raised from $.22 effective for the 2007 4th quarter. While it is a positive that TRMK did not cut the dividend in response to the Near Depression, the failure to raise it since 2007 is viewed as a major negative by me. Notwithstanding that major negative issue, I may elect to buy the stock back when and if there is another price collapse.
Next Ex Dividend: 2/26/21
Last Earnings Report (12/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
E.P.S. at $.81; consensus at $.67
"net income of $51.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing diluted earnings per share of $0.81. Net income in the fourth quarter produced a return on average tangible equity of 15.47% and a return on average assets of 1.28%. For the full year, Trustmark’s net income totaled a record level of $160.0 million, representing diluted earnings per share of $2.51. Diluted earnings per share in 2020 increased 8.2% when compared to the prior year. Trustmark’s net income in 2020 produced a return on average tangible equity of 12.58% and a return on average assets of 1.05%."
Tangible Book Value Per Share = $21.26
Ratios:
TRMK Realized Gains to Date: $814.99
J. Pared NTB-Sold 2 at $35:
Quote: Bank of Butterfield Ltd.
Closing Price 2/5/21: NTB $32.36 +$0.29 + 0.90%
NTB | Bank of Butterfield Ltd. Analyst Estimates
Investor Relations: Butterfield Group
Profit Snapshot: +$17.23
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.F. Started NTB-Bought 1 at $27.23; 9 at $26.9; 2 at $26.38; 1 at $25.79; 2 at $25.54; 5 at $25.2; 2 at $24.9; 2 at $24.7 (9/12/2020 Post)(substantive); Item # 1.F. Added to NTB-Bought 2 at $23.15; 1 at $22; 1 at $21.9; 1 at $21.6 (10/10/20 Post)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
New Average Cost Per Share =$24.45 (19 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 1/12/21 |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.44 per share ($1.76 annually); last raised from $.38 per share effective for the 2019 first quarter payment.
Yield at AC = 7.2%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/10/20
The 2020 4th quarter report is scheduled for release on 2/10/21.
K. Eliminated WTBA Vanguard Account-Sold 5 WTBA at $21.14 and 20 at $21.2:
Quote: West Bancorp Inc. (WTBA)
WTBA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (1 analyst providing estimates)
I still have positions in two taxable accounts.
Profit Snapshots: $116.92
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.C. Bought 10 WTBA at $17.1; 10 at $16.7; 10 at $16.2-Vanguard Taxable Account (8/1/2020 Post)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Dividend: Quarterly at $.22 per share, increased by 1 cent effective for the 2021 first quarter.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/30/20): This report was released after I sold the shares in this account. West Bancorporation, Inc. Announces Record Net Income, Declares Increased Quarterly Dividend
E.P.S. reported at $.52, up from $.46 in the 2019 4th quarter
Consensus at $.43 according to Fidelity
2020 E.P.S. = $1.98, up from $1.74 in 2019
NIM = 3.2%
Efficiency Ratio: 39.99% (excellent)
ROA = 1.15%
ROE = 15.54%
Texas Ratio = 6.4% (excellent)
RBC Capital Markets | U.S. Banks: It’s Back... the Texas Ratio; Texas Ratio Definition
WTBA Realized Gains to date: $1,305.79
L. Added to ED-Bought 1 at $68.35; 1 at $67.67:
Investment Category: Bond Substitute
Cramer Opinion: Cramer's lightning round: ConEd is 'down too much'
Last Discussed: Item # 1.H. (1/9/21 Post) I discussed the 3rd quarter earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
ED Average 2021 E.P.S. Estimate = $4.37
P/E at $4.37 and $69.79 AC = 15.97
Average Cost Per Share this account: $69.79 (4 shares)
I do not view the current price as attractive unless a divine being told me that the FED would continue its Jihad Against Savers for at least the next 5 years. I will continue to buy in small lots, and currently have similar positions in several accounts including Roth IRAs.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.775 per share ($3.10 annually), last raised from $.765 effective for the 2021 payment
Dividend History | Consolidated Edison, Inc.
Next Ex Dividend: 2/16/21
Yield at AC = 4.44%
The prior round trips occurred in 2011 when I was more adventuresome than now:
Item # 3 Sold 50 ED at $51.30 (4/7/11 Post)
Item # 1 Pared ED-Sold 25 at $52.5 (5/9/11 Post)
Item # 2 Eliminated Position in ED at $53.7 (7/14/11 Post)(profit snapshot = $786.28 for all 2011 trades)
5 year Chart:
Recent support has been showing up near $70.
Recent Broker Reports:
Morgan Stanley (1/28/21): Reduces PT to $67 from $69 and keeps at underweight. I do not have access to that report.
I will discuss the 4th quarter report when it is released.
M. Added to AEP Classified as a Placeholder Based on Price-Bought 1 at $77.58:
Quote: American Electric Power Co.
Closing Price 2/5/21: AEP $82.19 -$0.02 -0.02%
Stock Information:
AEP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Bond Substitute
Last Discussed: Item # 1.I. Started AEP-Bought 1 at $79.58 (10/10/20 Post) I discussed the 2020 second quarter report in that post.
AEP Average 2021 E.P.S. Estimate = $4.34
P/E at AC of $78.58 and $4.34 = 18.11
Average Cost this account: $78.58 (2 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.74 per share ($2.96 Annually). last raised from $.7 effective for the 2020 4th quarter payment or +5.71%
Stock & Dividends | AEP Investors
Yield at $78.58 = 3.77%
At the current price, I am simply not able to generate much interest in this stock. I would become more interested at a less than $70 price, or if I knew the FED's Jihad Against Savers would continue another 5+ years with AEP raising the annual dividend by 5.71% per year.
Nest Ex Dividend: 2/9/21
5 Year Chart:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
I will discuss the 4th quarter report when it is released.
Broker Actions:
On 1/21/21, Guggenheim raised to buy and increased its PT to $93 from $83. Evercore raised its PT to $99 from $95. On 1/20/21, Morgan Stanley cut its PT to $99 from $101. On 1/15/21, Goldman Sachs reduced its rating to sell and lowered its PT to $83 from $90. I do not have access to those reports.
Reports available to Schwab customers:
Morningstar (1/11/21): 4 stars with a FV of $89
Argus (10/28/20): Buy with a $102 PT
S & P (10/28/20): 3 stars with a $98 PT.
I would be a seller at $98 irrespective of the number of shares then owned or the profit.
My largest position in a AEP is in its 2022 SU bond:
N. Pared THQ in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 1 Share Bought with Dividends at $20.84:
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report: Period Ending 9/30/20
Sponsor's website: Fund Basics
Profit Snapshot: +$3.09
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 1/13/21 |
Sourced: THQ-CEF Connect (click "Pricing Information" tab)
I profitably sold all of the shares purchased with dividends, which is part of my risk mitigation/capital preservation strategy. I am more concerned about losing the original dividend's value through share depreciation than I am about losing further capital appreciation and the compounding effect.
I have also been increasing my exposure to individual healthcare stocks which avoids the annual expense ratio of a fund and reduces the risk connected to THQ's leverage.
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.I Restarted THQ-Bought 10 at $16.7 and 5 at $16,58 (3/7/20 Post); Item # 3.E. Added 5 THQ at $16.25, 5 at $14.3; 5 at $14.07 and 5 at $11.9 (3/28/20 Post)
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.H. Sold 10 THQ at $17.55 and 10 at $17.9(5/23/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $23.24); Item # 1.B. Sold Remaining THQ-61+ Shares at $17.5 (9/1/19 Post)(profit = $60.49); Item # 2.A. Sold 53 THQ at $17.98 (7/31/19 Post)(profit = $44.81); Item # 5 Sold 100 THQ at $17.59-Used Commission Free Trade(7/7/19 Post)(contains 2017 profit snapshots =$555.56); Item # 2.C. Sold 232+ THQ at 17.59 (7/3/17 Post); Item # 2.D. Sold 118+ THQ at $18.7 in a Roth IRA Account (7/3/17 Post)
Goal: Total Return in excess of dividend payments before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis.
THQ Realized Gains to Date: $687.29
(O) Started FIDU-Bought 2 at $48.42; 1 at $47.66; 2 at $47.27:
Closing Price 2/5/21: FIDU $48.07 +$0.24 +0.50%
How investors may capitalize on industrial stocks rally
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
