I am not going to be doing much in the stock market next week. I will be buying some treasury bills.
I am not considering the purchase of any bonds since I am already substantially overweighted in that asset category and yields have dropped sufficiently to make bonds uninteresting for new purchases given the existing overweighting and the yields on treasury bills and my MM funds at Vanguard and Fidelity.
This is my allocation percentages in my Fidelity Account as an example:
 |
| Treasury Bills Classified in AA/Aa |
I had a few corporate bonds drift down from investment grade after I bought them.
Some of the potentially long term Tennessee municipal bonds are classified as short term, apparently as a result of the issuer having the right to call now or soon. I would classify those as intermediate or long term maturities until interest rates decline sufficiently to make the call a likely event.
I am changing my publication schedule to Fridays.
I will not be publishing a post next Friday, but will discuss some issues in videos published at my YouTube channel that I have just started to crank up. South Gent - YouTube I will need at least 10 stocks to discuss before publishing my next post here. I do not know when that will be.
It takes far less time to speak for a few minutes compared to writing this blog.
So far, three comments have been left to my videos, and all were deleted from me. Two were left mostly likely by an enemy of the U.S., possibly by the same person using two user names. I would classify the content as most likely coming from a Russian or Russian bot. The person or persons claimed that they were living on the street and the U.S. economy was in shambles. Apparently, this person still had good internet access and a computer as a homeless person living on a street.
The other comment was made soon after I published my first video. For a sum of money, not specified, that person claimed that I needed help in attracting subscribers, as if I cared about the number.
+++
Economy:
December 2023 CPI: Consumer Price Index Summary - 2023 M12 Results
Annual CPI +3.4%, up from 3.1% through November.
Core CPI: 3.9%, down from 4% through November.
Month-To-Month CPI: +.3%, up from .1% in November
Month-To-Month Core CPI: +.3%, same as .3% in November.
The "owners equivalent rent" rose 6.3% on a unseasonably adjusted basis for the 12 months ending in December.
No one pays that expense which has a 24.598% weighting in CPI and larger in core CPI since that measure excludes energy and food.
The month-to-month seasonally adjusted was up .5% in December, compared to a .4% increase in November. Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category - 2023 M12 Results
So this fictional "expense" is still having an oversized impact on inflation. I discussed this report in a video: CPI Report for December 2023 - YouTube
Fed Governor Bowman adjusts rate stance, says hikes likely over but not ready to cut
2024 Macro Outlook Not Rosy - Expert Felix Zulauf Explains - YouTube I left a comment to that video. I agree with Zulauf's comments about China. I generally view his outlook as too negative however. .
China's banking system is in free fall right now, says Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass - YouTube
China's Great Slowdown - YouTube
A partial U.S. government shutdown after Friday 1/19/24 is still a possibility. GOP hard-liners revolt against Johnson-Schumer government funding deal Johnson is IMO likely to cave to demands that he renege on the spending deal crafted with the Senate Majority Leader a few days ago. Right Wing Pressures Johnson to Abandon Spending Deal to Avert Shutdown - The New York Times Several House Republicans want far deeper cuts and a massive crackdown on illegal immigration or they will shut the government down until there demands are met.
It would be up to Johnson to ignore those republicans and rely upon the Democrats to pass a funding bill. It does not look to me like he is willing to balk at demands from the republicans who will blow up the government or cause a debt default unless they get what they want.
If Johnson refuses to bring a compromise spending bill to a House floor vote, which could pass with Democrat votes, another stopgap spending measure would have to be passed before 1/19 to prevent a partial shutdown. And that is not a more probable than not alternative given the tyranny of the minority imposing their will on the entire nation, cutting spending only where they want cuts and refusing to engage in any compromise. The Stock Jocks may be reacting now in part to the increasing possibility that the republicans will cause a government shutdown.
U.S. deficit tops half a trillion dollars in first quarter of fiscal year
I posted a video discussing U.S. government debt and deficits: U.S. Government Debt and Deficits - YouTube
++++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bill Purchases: None. I will resume treasury bill purchases in mid-January. In 2 taxable accounts, I will receive $55,000 in proceeds from maturing fixed coupon securities starting on 1/15 through 1/31/24. The proceeds received in my Schwab Account will likely be redirected into treasury bill purchases. The Schwab sweep account is currently paying .45%. Proceeds received in my Fidelity Account will be kept in the sweep account which currently pays 5%.
Corporate Bonds: None
SNOXX: $2,000, using proceeds from a $2K Treasury Bill maturity.
Common Stocks: -$3,161.62
(consisting of $3,161.62 in proceeds and no purchases)
Stock ETF: +$514.4
Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds (discussed in this post): -$2,647.22
2024 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds (discussed in posts): -$2,840.74)
+++
Putin and His Orwellian Empire of Misery:
Losses ∙ RussiaWarSpotting-documented material losses in Russo-Ukrainian war
Putin's conscripts 'limited' to 'gruesome meat grinder' tactics | Frontline - YouTube
Russia launches air strikes on Ukraine | DW News - YouTube
Russia launches ‘massive’ wave of deadly strikes across Ukraine • FRANCE 24 English - YouTube Russians and Russian bots are responsible for almost every comment made to this video, so I left a comment:
Putin's decisions to annex Crimea and to start a Russian financed rebellion in Eastern Ukraine were actually counterproductive to Russia's interests.
Putin is responsible for starting the war in Eastern Ukraine in 2014. If Putin was a competent dictator, and he is not, that bloody rebellion would never have been started by Russia and the citizens who live there would be much better off now. Russia has brought only misery and death to the Russian speaking population of Ukraine.
As to Crimea, Russia would have been far better off now by continuing to pay rent on its military bases until 2047 (then renegotiating terms) and fostering strong economic, political and diplomatic relations with Ukraine.
Putin was, is and always will be incapable of pursuing a sensible course that would benefit the average Russian.
While Ukraine would have joined the EU in a scenario where Russia acted in a sensible manner, membership in NATO, which is a zero threat to Russian national security, would not have been necessary with friendly relations between the two nations rather than the hostility engendered solely by Putin's Russia. Joining the EU would have increased the GDP growth rate of the Ukrainian economy, and Putin was concerned that his incompetence would be led bare by that result.
The negative impact of Putin's Ukrainian policies was made far worse for ordinary Russians when Putin decided to invade Ukraine in February 2022.
The clear goal was to decapitate the democratically elected government, to kill or imprison Ukrainians who were opposed to Putin being their dictator for life, to absorb Ukraine into his Orwellian nation, to terminate the freedoms of Ukrainians and to forcibly Russify Ukraine Soviet style.
The end result of that decision will probably be 1 million or so Russians dying for Putin's decision, a declining economy with persistently high inflation that results in negative real GDP growth, rapidly increasing Russian government debt to finance weapon procurements that are then destroyed in Ukraine, a severe aggravation of Russia's ongoing demographic crisis as young people flee or are killed in Ukraine, and all of the foregoing and much more for no benefit to Russia or its citizens. Russia is ruled with an iron fist by a KGB hood.
Anne Applebaum: "Ukrainians know that negotiations with Russia are fruitless . . . They also know that military loss still means the same thing that it meant when Russia invaded in February 2022: occupation, mass repression, concentration camps, and the end of an independent Ukraine." How Ukraine Must Change If It Wants to Win - The Atlantic
+++
Trump and His Party:
RealClearPolitics-Election-2024 Republican Presidential Nomination
RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
Trump Deploys Familiar Tactic: - The New York Times When Trump is accused of doing something wrong, his tactic is to accuse his opponent of doing the same thing.
So, for example, when he is criticized as being a threat to American Democracy, with a litany of facts supporting that contention, he accuses Biden of being the threat, claiming without proof that Biden is orchestrating the criminal cases against Trump for political reasons. This tactic unfortunately works on tens of millions.
Since Trump started claiming Biden was the threat to Democracy, and Donald was doing everything he could to support the flourishing of Democracy and the institutions necessary for its proper functioning, Trump has managed to increase the percentage of voters who believe Biden was the real threat to 53%, PRRI, from the 38% in 2022 who can reasonably described as the hard core Trumpsters in America.
In Trump's America, Trump, as an Ex-President, has a constitutional right to avoid criminal prosecution for acts committed while President, even if he ordered the assassination of a political opponent, sold pardons to criminals or nuclear and other military secrets to a foreign power. In a video, I discuss this novel argument designed to keep Donald out of jail and Above the Law. Trump's Absolute Immunity from Criminal Prosecution Argument - YouTube
Trump's lawyer claimed those kind of acts would be immune from criminal prosecution unless he was first impeached by the House and convicted in the Senate. Takeaways from the appeals court hearing on Donald Trump’s immunity claims; Appeals court probes limits of Trump's broad immunity claim in 2020 election case - CBS News No such provision exists in the Constitution and would consequently require the Supreme Court to create such a immunity provision, which "Conservative" Supreme Court Justices do frequently when it achieves a result desired by their ideology (e.g. a Corporation is a "person", or the Due Process Clause of the 14th Amendment incorporates the Second Amendment and can be applied to strike down state laws relating to guns)
In Trump's America, the President could order the murder of a political opponent and be immune from criminal prosecution unless he was impeached in the House and convicted in the Senate by a 2/3rds vote.
Trump has never admitted to committing a crime and would pressure republican Senators to vote against a conviction using a variety of tactics as seen in his previous impeachments. The end result could easily be a failure to achieve a 2/3rds Senate vote to convict due to political dynamics when a jury, if presented with the evidence, would convict using the guilt beyond a reasonable doubt standard.
Prior to Trump, I would have been shocked that any President or former President other than Richard Nixon would claim immunity for criminal prosecution. I am not surprised that Trump is advancing that argument. That is what I would expect him to do.
Trump's lawyers argue that permitting a criminal prosecution of an ex-President for felonies allegedly committed during the term would open the floodgates of prosecutions against future Presidents. That floodgate has not been opened yet since the nation's founding. Nixon would probably have been indicted after leaving Office in August 1974, which would have been a first, but Ford pardoned him the next month. Past presidents, while never indicted, have faced legal woes of their own-NPR
In addressing Trump's claim for immunity, the Courts do not need to decide now whether a President can be indicted and tried while in Office. Trump was indicted only after leaving office.
Trump warns of ‘bedlam,’ won’t rule out violence after immunity hearing - The Washington Post
Insider calls Trump’s demeanor on Jan. 6 ‘very unsettling’: ABC News Exclusive - YouTube
How Republicans’ rewriting of Jan. 6 paved the way for Trump’s comeback - The Washington Post
Trump didn't sign Illinois oath not to advocate government overthrow
Trump Threatens to Indict Biden If Courts Don't Give Him Immunity from criminal prosecution
Trump says Civil War ‘could have been negotiated’ In TrumpWorld, where accurate information is ignored or dismissed, and reality creations are both pervasive and normal, Abraham Lincoln is responsible for the Civil War. Trump, a self-proclaimed master negotiator as proven in his constant stream of self promotion books, could have prevented the Civil War from happening and will solve the Ukraine War within 24 hours.
Trump Downplays Jan. 6 Capitol Siege, Calls Jailed Rioters 'Hostages' (1/6/24); Trump Says 'J6 Hostages' Have 'Suffered Enough' On Anniversary Of Deadly Capitol Attack In the alternate reality of TrumpWorld, the attack on the U.S. Capitol was peaceful and patriotic. Trumpsters may in a weak moment admit that there was some violence that day, but, if there was, it has been blown way out of proportion and those acts were committed by paid FBI informants dressed as Trump supporters who were trying to cause trouble for Trump. They were very sneaky in that their online presence indicated a true blue Trumpster for many years, as did their attendance at Trump rallies, but that was just part of their sinister deep covers. I am still waiting for anyone convicted of committing felonies that day to claim that he or she was a paid FBI informant.
In Trump's America, anyone who merely reports accurate information about what Donald has said or done is suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome, one of the phrases used by Trump and his Trumpsters to dismiss accurate information without actually having to rebut it with real evidence or even acknowledging that what Trump said or did actually was said and done.
The Trumpster Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who routinely parrots Trump's talking points, also referred to those committing crimes on January 6th as "hostages". Elise Stefanik echoes Trump when asked about January 6 prisoners three years on
Ms. Stefanik is the 4th ranking republican in the House and represents New York's 21st congressional district She replaced Liz Cheney as the Chair of the House Republican Conference who was removed for criticizing Donald.
Representative Stefanik was one of the GOP congressman who sign a petition requesting that the Supreme Court cancel the certified election results in 4 states won by Biden and to authorize the republican legislatures in those to pick the electors. My guess, not really a guess, is that the republican dominated legislatures in those states would have picked the Trump electors. House Members Who Signed a Brief Asking the Supreme Court to Consider Overturning the Election-ProPublica
Ms Stefanik was only trying to save U.S. democracy by canceling the certified state election results.
There Is No “Both Sides” to Donald Trump’s Threat to Democracy | Vanity Fair
Donald Trump Is Connecting With a Different Type of Evangelical Voter - The New York Times Many evangelicals believe Donald was chosen by God to be President, which is a concept difficult for me to grasp, or if that is a bit much to swallow without breaking into laughter, view the Democrats as doing the Devil's work by destroying the country and all, or almost all of them are going to Hell as their just reward. Basically, education of American children can start by memorizing the bible, visiting the Kentucky Creation Museum and reading Trump tweets for an accurate portrayal of current events. A. A. Gill on Kentucky's Creation Museum | Vanity Fair This is where the children can learn that Adam and Eve walked with the dinosaurs. Creation Museum-The New York Times
Trump says he wants economy to crash ASAP so he can have something to use against Biden
'Kryptonite' new evidence is a 'turning point' in Jack Smith's case against Trump: expert; The new Jan. 6 testimony against Trump will be devastating at trial
No. 3 Senate Republican endorses Trump for president
Trump Promotes False Birther Conspiracy About Nikki Haley - The New York Times
Trump enjoys a relaxed Fox News town hall while top Republican rivals have a fierce debate | PBS NewsHour Fox "news" anchors will not challenge Trump or fact check his demonstrably false statements. The Fox "news" anchor Martha MacCallum did not even challenge Trump's claim that Democrats want to kill babies after they are born.
++++
Small Ball Rules:
Baseball Analogy: Small ball (baseball) - Wikipedia
Small Ball Rules: Primarily a risk reduction trading technique, one of many strategies that I employ to mitigate risk.
(2) Purchases are made in small lots using commission-free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved;
The corollary is to buy the dips, particularly during extreme volatility events that would be associated with major declines in stocks.
Another aspect is selling fractional shares bought with dividends in order to harvest the original dividend amount plus a small profit on the shares. Generally, if I am willing to buy a dividend stock now through a market purchase, I will consider reinvesting the dividend. Conversely, if I am not willing to buy shares, I will likely turn off the dividend reinvestment option.
Primary Investment Objectives: (1) Preservation of Capital; (2) Income Generation; (3) Realized Capital Gains in risk assets.
Normally, I try to generate at least $25K in trading profits during each year.
+++
Quotes from Warren Buffett's 1993 Letter to Shareholders:
"In fact, the true investor welcomes volatility. Ben Graham explained why in Chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor. There he introduced "Mr. Market," an obliging fellow who shows up every day to either buy from you or sell to you, whichever you wish. The more manic-depressive this chap is, the greater the opportunities available to the investor. That's true because a wildly fluctuating market means that irrationally low prices will periodically be attached to solid businesses. It is impossible to see how the availability of such prices can be thought of as increasing the hazards for an investor who is totally free to either ignore the market or exploit its folly."
"As Ben Graham said: "In the short-run, the market is a voting machine - reflecting a voter-registration test that requires only money, not intelligence or emotional stability - but in the long-run, the market is a weighing machine."
Graham first made the voting and weighing machine analogy in his book Security Analysis co-authored with David Le Fevre Dodd and published in 1934 (page 452, print edition).
I published a YouTube video on this subject. Ben Graham and Warren Buffet Stock Market as a Voting and Weighing Machine - YouTube
1. Eliminated MFIC - Sold 72+ at $13.97 (Schwab Account):
Quote: MidCap Financial Investment Corp. - Externally Managed BDC
Generally, the demarcation line for the small ball category is less than a $1,000 transaction. This trade went slightly over $1K in proceeds and was consequently separated from the small ball trades discussed in Items 2 and 3 below.
Proceeds: $1,013.51
Website: MidCap Financial Investment Corporation
I classify this externally managed BDC as deservedly hated. Adjusted for 1 for 3 reverse split in 2018, the initial IPO price of $15 per share was $45.
Profit Snapshot: Net of $84.44
Dividend: Quarterly at $.38 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 12/11/2013
I received the last two dividend is cash in anticipation that the position would soon be eliminated:
 |
| $55.14 |
Last Discussed: Item # 7.A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in MFIC - Sold 36+ at $13.46 in Fidelity Account (12/16/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $48.08); Item # 3.F. Eliminated 1 or 2 Duplicate Positions in MFIC (Vanguard Account) - Sold 50 at $13.64 ( Post)(profit snapshot = $30.12) I discussed the last earnings report in the 12/16 post and have nothing substantive to add here. SEC Filing
Goal: Any total return before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis in excess of the dividends paid. As noted in my last post discussing this stock, there were no ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis in 2021 and 2022. I do not anticipate any for the dividends paid in 2023.
2. Small Ball Sells:
A. Pared WMB - Sold 10 Shares at $36.12 (Schwab Account):
Quote: Williams Cos., Inc. (WMB)
Proceeds: $361.2
I discussed this transaction in a video. The importance of funds available for distribution for U S energy infrastructure company stocks - YouTube
Williams is an energy infrastructure company organized a regular "C" corporation.
Business Segments:
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/23 at page 36
Investment Category: Bond Substitute
Last Discussed: Item # 6.A. Eliminated WMP Duplicate Positions - Sold 10+ at $35.23; 5 at $35.33 (8/12/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $190.98) I discussed the 2023 second quarter earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
I wanted to eliminate all shares purchased with dividends and the highest cost 5 shares that I purchased in the market. The shares bought with dividends totalled 4.8515.
Position Before Pare:
 |
| Price Intraday on 1/4/24 |
Unlike Fidelity, Schwab will not allow me to sell just those shares and 5 shares from my 8/11/21. Only round lots can be sold unless the entire position is liquidated in the account. To sell the 4.8515 shares, I had to include a .1485 fractional share from the 95 shares purchased on 8/11/21.
Profit Snapshot: +$127.61
New Average Cost per share: $23.96 (104+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.4475 ($1.79 annual), last raised from $.425 effective for the 2023 first quarter payment. In 2018 the rate was at $.34.
The Williams Companies, Inc - Dividend history
Yield at New AC: 7.47%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/7/23
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23):
Net Income = $654M or $.54 per share
GAAP net income included "a $130 million gain on the sale of the Bayou Ethane system."
Funds Available for Distribution: $1.234B or $1.01 per share
Non-cash Depreciation and Amortization Expenses: $1.542B
Revenues: $2.559B
Analyst reports available to Schwab customers:
Morningstar: 3 stars with a Fair Value of $36 and a narrow moat.
Owned WMB SU Bonds: I currently own 8 WMB bonds. Those bonds include ones originally offered by Williams Partners that was acquired by WMB.
4 bonds: 4.55% Maturing on 6/24/24
4 bonds: 3.9% Maturing on 1/15/25
Last SU Bond Purchase Discussion: Item # 3.C. Bought 2 Williams 4.55% SU Maturing on 6/24/24 at a Total Cost of 98.93 (6/3/23 Post) YTM was then at 5.6%.
Last WMB Bond Offerings (January 2024): Prospectus
B. Eliminated PHG - Sold 16+ at $21.58:
Quote: Koninklijke Philips N.V. ADR
Proceeds: $378.09
Website: Global home | Philips
PHG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit: Net of $21.58
A recent rally in the stock price enabled me to profitably exit the positions.
PHG has been plagued by product recalls which currently show no signs of abating.
The most serious recall involved involved was certain Philips Respironics ventilators, bilevel positive airway pressure machines, and continuous positive airway pressure machines. CDRH Provides Update on Philips June 2021 Recall and Maintains Recommendations Related to Potential Health Risks of PE-PUR Foam | FDA (started in 2021); How Philips' significant respiratory devices recall unfolded
I have periodically noted other recalls since that time. Philips North America LLC Recalls Panorama 1.0T HFO due to a Risk of Explosion During a Quench Procedure Caused by Excessive Pressure Buildup of Helium Gas | FDA; Philips Respironics Recalls V60 and V60 Plus Ventilators due to Power Management Printed Circuit Board Assemblies (PM PCBAs) Not Meeting Ventilator Standards | FDA
The end result was a significant earnings decline.
 |
| 2020-2022 Annual Data |
Royal Philips SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/23 While this report may have been better than expected, E.P.S. at $.09, adjusted to $.33, does not provide much comfort given the product recalls and the FDA product safety warnings. I was trying to catch a falling knife with several small ball PHG purchases and have decided to throw in the towel. Maybe the company will get its act together in the future.
Dividends: Paid annually. The last dividend was €.85 per share.
PHG tock Dividend History & Date
Last Ex Dividend: 5/11/23
C. Eliminated BK - Sold 8 at $52.41:
Quote: Bank of New York Mellon Corp.
Proceeds: $419.28
Established in 1784 by Alexander Hamilton
Three Business Lines:
BK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: +$88.92
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 5.Q. Added to BK - Bought 1 at $39.21; 1 at $38.17; 1 at $38.73 (10/25/22 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 2.A. Eliminated BK- Sold 4 at $51.87 in Fidelity Account; 10 at $51.63 in Vanguard Account; and 5 at $51.75 in Schwab Account (8/27/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $310.97)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.42 per share, last raised from $.37 effective for the 2023 third quarter payment. The quarterly rate was at $.17 in 2016.
Last Ex Dividend: 10/26/23
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release and SEC Filed 3rd Quarter Financial Highlights
During the FED's Jihad Against Savers, BK's earnings were negatively impacted by fee waivers on its money market funds.
E.P.S. $1.22
Adjusted E.P.S. $1.27
D. Eliminated EBMT - Sold 10 at $15.4:
Quote: Eagle Bancorp Montana Inc.
My consider to sell price is $15 or higher.
This PT is based on a low dividend yield and an overall unfavorable earnings report for the third quarter that had several unfavorable trends.
2022 Annual Report (28 banking locations, page 20)
Proceeds: $154
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: +$35.45
Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share ($.56 annually)
EBMT Dividend History | Nasdaq
Last Ex Dividend: 11/9/23
Yield at $15.4: 3.64%
Last Discussed: Item # 2.L. Bought Back 10 EBMT at $11.86 (11/11/13 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release There were several unfavorable metrics in that report, but I viewed the $11.86 price as being sufficiently low to justify a 10 share purchase.
Last Elimination: Item # 1.J. Eliminated EBMT-Sold 10 at $20.65 (12/12/20)(profit snapshot = $47.54)
Proceeds: $230.04
Sold highest cost shares using FIFO accounting.
KHC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Position Before Pare: 31 Shares with an average cost of $33.44 per share
 |
| Price Intraday on 1/9/24 |
Profit Snapshot: +$16.81
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Added to KHC - Bought 1 at $31.77; 2 at $31.5; 3 at $31.17; 2 at $30.9 (10/21/23 Post)
New Average Cost per share:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 per share.
Dividend History | The Kraft Heinz Company
I am not reinvesting the dividend.
Yield at New AC:
Last Ex Dividend: 11/30/23 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23):
E.P.S. = $.21
Adjusted E.P.S. = $.72
Reconciliation GAAP to Non-GAAP:
Net Sales: $6.57B, up from $6.505B in the 2022 third quarter.
Organic net sales "increased 1.7 percent versus the prior year period. Price increased 7.1 percentage points versus the prior year period, with increases in both reportable segments that were primarily driven by list price increases taken to mitigate higher input costs. Volume/mix declined 5.4 percentage points versus the prior year period, with declines in both reportable segments that were primarily driven by elasticity impacts from pricing actions."
I am not inclined to give weight to an organic increase in net sales that results from price increases rising more than volume declines.
Last Elimination: Item # 5.C. Eliminated KHC -Sold 5 at $42.44; 10+ at $42.33 (1/16/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $125.25)
Analyst Reports Available to Schwab Customers:
Morningstar (11/2/23): 5 stars with a fair value estimate of $53
I mentioned in a comment yesterday that I will make an effort to determine a fair value range using objective financial metrics that I deem important. That effort arrives at an opinion that at least has some objective basis.
My fair value range may be near the Morningstar FV estimate for a stock, but will sometimes be materially above or below. If I thought the FV for KHC was $53, I would not have pared the position.
My 12 month PT for KHC would be about $40. I had that target before looking at the S&P report.
Argus (11/22/23): Hold. My opinion is closest to this one. The analyst notes that Kraft has driven sales through price increases, up an average 11% over the past 8 quarters with the average volume decline of 4%. A dividend hike is unlikely. The last action on the dividend was to slash it.
S&P (11/1/23): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $40
F. Pared ACCO - Sold 10 at $6.46:
Quote: ACCO Brands Corp. (ACCO)
Proceeds: $64.62
ACCO Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
Position Before Pare:
 |
| Price Intraday on 1/8/24 |
Using FIFO accounting, I sold 10 of the 20 highest cost shares.
Profit Snapshot: +$14.07
New Average cost per share: $4.85 (50 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.075 per share ($.30 annually)
Yield at New AC = 6.1856%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/14/23 (owned all as of)
Buy Discussions: Item # 2.E. Added to ACCO - Bought 10 at $4.95; 20 at $4.78 - Schwab Account (11/11/23 Post); Item # 1.P. Started ACCO - Bought 20 at $5.06 (11/4/23 Post) I discussed the third quarter earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
G. Pared O - Sold 5 Shares at $59:
Proceeds: $294.98
Quote: Realty Income Corp. (O)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: Homepage | Realty Income
Profit Snapshot: $4.48
Old Average Cost per share $53.47
New Average Cost per share: $52.55 (25+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 1/11/24 after pare |
Dividend (current rate): Monthly at $.2565 per share ($3.078 per share), last raised from $.256 effective for the January 2024
Realty Income Corporation (O) Stock Dividend History & Date
Yield at Current Rate: 5.5857%
Next Ex Dividend: 1/31/24
Last Discussed: Item # 1.O. Added to O - Bought 1 at $48.9; 1 at $46.79; 2 at $45.54 (11/4/23 Post); Item # 2.I. Added to O - Bought 1 at $51.16; 1 at $50.78; 1 at $50.22; 2 at $50; 1 at $49.74 (9/30/23 Post)
Prior Elimination: Item # 1. Eliminated Realty Income (O)- Sold 100 at $52.37 -Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $1,579.6)
Analyst Report Available to Schwab Customers:
S&P (12/19/23): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $59.
RBC increased its PT to $60 from $58 yesterday. I do not have access to that report. I view the PT as reasonable IMO, but the stock can drift above that PT due to market dynamics or a continued decline in interest rates that makes the dividend more attractive.
Owned Realty Income SU Bonds: I currently own 4 Realty Income senior unsecured bonds. Two of those bonds mature on 2/6/24. The coupon is 4.6%.
Notable Recent News:
Realty Income to Acquire Spirit Realty Capital in $9.3 Billion Transaction The initial reaction was negative. I would describe the current Stock Jock reaction to be "I don't care".
Realty Income Prices $1.25 Billion Dual-tranche Offering of Senior Unsecured Notes (1/8/24);
Realty Income Announces $950 Million Investment in Bellagio Las Vegas at $5.1 Billion Valuation (8/25/23)
Realty Income (O) Realized Gains to Date: $1,584.08
H. Pared PFLT - Sold 20 Shares at $12.29:
Proceeds: $245.9
SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 9/30/23 The risk factor summary starts at page 17 and ends at page 38. A summary of PFLT's investments starts at page 68.
Management: External
Profit Snapshot: $12.13
Last Discussed: Item # 1.M. Added to PFLT - Bought 3 at $9.71 (11/4/23 Post); Item # 4.F. Added to PFLT - Bought 5 at $10.51 (6/24/23 Post)
Old Average Cost per share: $9.44 (110+ shares)
New Average cost per share: $8.95 (90+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 1/11/24 after pare |
Dividend: Monthly at $.1025 per share ($1.23 annually)
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT) Stock Dividend History & Date
Net Asset Value per share history:
9/30/23: $11.13 (page 95, Annual Report)
6/30/23: $10.96
12/31/22: $11.30
9/30/22: $11.62
12/31/21: $12.70
3/31/21: $12.71 Press Release 2021 1st Q Earnings
3/31/20: $12.20 10-Q at page 5
12/31/19: $12.95
9/30/19: $12.97
6/30/19: $13.07
3/21/19: $13.24
12/31/18 $13.66
9/30/18 $13.82
6/30/18: $13.82
9/30/17: $14.10
9/30/16: $14.06
9/30/15: $13.95
9/30/14: $14.40
9/30/13: $14.10
9/30/12: $13.98
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/23):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
SEC Filing: List of Investments
Net investment income: $18.5M or $.32 per share, barely covering the $.3075 per share dividend paid during the quarter.
Debt Investments: 100% variable rate.
Average Yield on Debt Investments: 12.1%
Total Portfolio: $1.0672B with $906.2m in first lien secured debt.
As 0f 9/30/23, PSEC had 2 companies on nonaccrual status representing .9% of the total investments at cost and .2% at the marked down fair value.
Last Elimination: Item # 2.D. Eliminated PFLT in Fidelity Account (Duplicate Position)-Sold 15 at $10.93 (3/11/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $74.78)
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 7.E. Sold Highest Cost 20 PFLT Shares Purchased with Dividends at $14.07 - Schwab Taxable Account (4/28/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $46.13); Item # 3. Sold 102 PFLT in Schwab Taxable Account at $13.26 -Highest Cost Lots (7/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $30.92); Item # 2.A. Eliminated PFLT in Fidelity Account-Sold 81+ at $12.01 (12/14/19 Post)($29.66)
Goal: Any total return before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis in excess of the dividends. This is the goal for all BDCs that I own. It takes into account the risky loans made by BDCs, their leverage, the stock price meltdowns that occur periodically in response to a recession, a recognition that all of the return will likely come from the the juiced dividend payments, and the generally less than stellar net asset value per share histories.
Through yesterday, the PFLT five year annual average total return was 10.74% which is okay. However, that average total return was significantly generated by what may be a temporary price spurt since I bought shares at $9.71 on 10/27/23. DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel The five year annual average total return through 10/27/23 was 5.15%. The annual average total return over a ten year was 8.82% through 1/11/24. All of the average annual total numbers noted above are significantly less than my current dividend yield of 13.74%, plus I have an unrealized gain on the shares having profitably selling my highest cost lots.
For PFLT, no ROC supported distributions were paid in 2023. The dividend was covered by net investment income.
Since the loans made by PFLT are at spreads to short term rates, any cut or cuts in the Federal Funds rate will reduce NII, but lower interest costs for the high risk borrowers may prevent one or more avoid defaulting.
2. Small Ball Buys:
A. Started GCOW - Bought 5 at $34.58; 5 at $34.25; 5 at $34.08:
Quote: Pacer Global Cash Cows Dividend ETF Overview
Cost: $514.4
GCOW – Pacer Global Cash Cows Dividend ETF- Morningstar (currently rated 4 stars)
GCOW – Portfolio -Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings)
Sponsor's website: GCOW | Pacer ETFs
Expense Ratio: .6%
Stock Selection Technique: Excerpted from Summary Prospectus.
Starts with the FTSE All World Developed Markets Large Cap Index. This index has 772 stocks.
Total Returns for this Index:
Top 10 Constituents of this Index:
That index is screened for free cash flow and earnings projected over the next two years. Companies with negative earnings or negative free cash flow are then removed from the selection process.
The remaining companies are then ranked by free cash flow over the trailing 12 month period. The companies with the highest free cash flow are then ranked by dividend yield. The fund will own 100 stocks.
Reconstituted semiannually.
Some Top Holdings as of 1/8/24:
Dividends: Paid quarterly at a variable rate.
Last Ex Dividend Date: 12/27/23
Hypothetical Dividend Yield Using a $34.4 average cost per share and a $1.81 annual dividend per share: 5.26%
3. Cash Flow Into the Fidelity Account on 1/15/24:
Redemption Proceeds:
Interest and Dividend Payments:
Added additional payments:
An $85 interest payment made by a 4.25% SU bond issued by the bank holding company Associated bank is from 4 bonds purchased in 2 bond lots.
The second 2 bond lot purchase was made at a total cost of 92.1. Item # 3.A. (5/20/23 Post) The yield-to-maturity at my total cost was then at 9.513% with a current yield of 4.6145%. (current yield = 4.25% Coupon ÷ 92.1 total cost = 4.6145%) The YTM is much higher due to the discounted purchase price to par value and the short time to maturity.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
