Economy:
The government estimates that real GDP grew 1.9% in the third quarter. The consensus estimate was for 1.6%. This is the first of several estimates. Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) Personal consumption expenditures increased at a 2.9% annualized rate, down from 4.6% in the second quarter. Equipment investment decreased at a 3.8% annualized rate while investments in non-residential structures decreased 15.3%.
Quotes from GDP Press Release:
"The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent."
Personal saving was $1.34 trillion in the third quarter, compared with $1.32 trillion in the second quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 8.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with 8.0 percent in the second quarter."
I view the personal savings rate at 8% to be a positive compared to the long term trend that started in 1981:
Personal Saving Rate- St. Louis Fed
ADP reported the economy added 125K private sector jobs last month. Mark Zandi noted that the job "growth has throttled way back over the past year". ADP National Employment Report® - October 2019 (see chart)
The government estimates that real GDP grew 1.9% in the third quarter. The consensus estimate was for 1.6%. This is the first of several estimates. Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) Personal consumption expenditures increased at a 2.9% annualized rate, down from 4.6% in the second quarter. Equipment investment decreased at a 3.8% annualized rate while investments in non-residential structures decreased 15.3%.
Quotes from GDP Press Release:
"The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent."
Personal saving was $1.34 trillion in the third quarter, compared with $1.32 trillion in the second quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 8.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with 8.0 percent in the second quarter."
I view the personal savings rate at 8% to be a positive compared to the long term trend that started in 1981:
ADP reported the economy added 125K private sector jobs last month. Mark Zandi noted that the job "growth has throttled way back over the past year". ADP National Employment Report® - October 2019 (see chart)
Calculated Risk: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.2% year-over-year in August; S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Indices - Real Estate - S&P Dow Jones Indices After seasonal adjustment, the 20 city index posted a .2% decrease in price. U.S. house prices drop 0.2% in August - MarketWatch
US consumer confidence for October comes in at 125.9, vs 128 expected September was reported at 126.3.
US consumer confidence for October comes in at 125.9, vs 128 expected September was reported at 126.3.
++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
The probability that the FED will cut the FF rate by .25% later today is currently at 98.3%, so call it 100%.
Countdown to FOMC: CME FedWatch Tool
Charting a break to ‘clear skies’ territory, S&P 500 tags all-time highs - MarketWatch
The signals are ‘loud and clear’ — a new bull market is underway, strategist says - MarketWatch
I would treat the claims made in the previous two links with caution.
The probability that the FED will cut the FF rate by .25% later today is currently at 98.3%, so call it 100%.
Countdown to FOMC: CME FedWatch Tool
Charting a break to ‘clear skies’ territory, S&P 500 tags all-time highs - MarketWatch
The signals are ‘loud and clear’ — a new bull market is underway, strategist says - MarketWatch
I would treat the claims made in the previous two links with caution.
‘Carnage awaits’ investors, if this chart is anything to go by - MarketWatch (chart of S&P index and earnings show the largest divergence since 2000)
After new record, these are the stocks Wall Street thinks will lead the next market leg higher
Alphabet earnings miss (E.P.S. at $10.12 vs. $12.42 consensus); Alphabet tumbles on earnings, but traders see a buy
The trailing 12 month GAAP P/E for the S & P 500 is currently close to 24. The P/E on estimated non-GAAP earnings for the next 12 months is currently 18.25. P/E & Yields Those are high values by historical standards.
++++
Portfolio Management:
A month ago, I bought 7 CDs with a 2.05% coupon that matured today in a Roth IRA account. I am not going to redeploy the proceeds into another CD or a treasury bill or bond. I will gradually deploy the proceeds into stocks, CEFs, and ETFs using commission free trades.
Success will be defined as any annual average total return in excess of 4%.
Call 1.5% the current risk free return and another 2.5%+ as the minimum necessary to assume risk.
Buys will not be discussed here and will be in very small baby odd lots. A stock selling between $10 to $20 would be restricted to a 10 share purchase as an example.
Another requirement is that the weighted average yield has to exceed 5%. Assuming the end result is no net loss on the shares, and a weighted average yield of 5%+, I will achieve the 4%+ total annual average return objective.
Even though it will be meaningless, I will try to improve on the total return number through some light trading of the baby odd lots.
Prior to the brokers implementing commission free trades in all accounts including retirement accounts, I would not have been able to implement this version of small ball in a IRA account since there was no way to secure commission free trades.
Vanguard Brokerage Accounts:
Vanguard has not gone to zero commissions for online trades of U.S. stocks. I am currently paying $7 per trade. Vanguard ETFs can now be bought at other brokers commission free. Vanguard charges a $2 per bond commission whereas I can buy bonds at other brokers for a $1 per bond commission. I have noted also that Vanguard's order books for bonds frequently have less advantageous prices for small lot orders compared to Fidelity or Interactive Brokers.
In other words, Vanguard has become by far my most unappealing broker. I see no reason to pay a $7 commission to buy stocks (common or preferred) and CEFs.
Still, the Vanguard MM funds pay more than the ones available at other brokers, and I am able to buy Vanguard mutual funds on a NTF basis. Over 1700 ETFs can be purchased commission free. While commission free ETFs are no longer an advantage for Vanguard, it does provide me with a low cost option when I decide to take on more risk.
I will gradually redeploy funds out of my Vanguard taxable account when and as needed in other brokerage accounts or as a source of funds for expenses.
+++
Interactive Brokerage Account:
Another loser IMO in the commission free era is IB who charges US$1 for online trades in U.S. listed securities.
IB requires their customers to pay for real time quotes which are free at brokers who now charge no commission. Subscription considerations for U.S. market data (Non-Professionals) | IB Knowledge Base (far too complicated IMO) I have never done so. Instead, I will open either my Schwab or Fidelity account, where I have free quotes, and use their quote data when placing trades at IB.
Moreover, IB requires specialized software that I had to purchase as an intermediary for downloads into Quicken. I still have to manually fill in certain information.
When I look at my account at IB, many of the securities have no quotes.
Online Statements do not provide information about lot costs but only the total cost.
While IB is offering a new account with no commission for online U.S. trades of stocks and ETFs, that account comes with several drawbacks that makes it even less desirable for me.
For now, I will be keeping the IB account primarily for bond and international trading.
International trading and currency conversions are cheaper at IB compared to my other brokers. Bond commissions run at $1 per bond which is better than Vanguard and Schwab (only for less than 10 bonds), but no different than what I pay at Fidelity.
Alphabet earnings miss (E.P.S. at $10.12 vs. $12.42 consensus); Alphabet tumbles on earnings, but traders see a buy
The trailing 12 month GAAP P/E for the S & P 500 is currently close to 24. The P/E on estimated non-GAAP earnings for the next 12 months is currently 18.25. P/E & Yields Those are high values by historical standards.
++++
Portfolio Management:
A month ago, I bought 7 CDs with a 2.05% coupon that matured today in a Roth IRA account. I am not going to redeploy the proceeds into another CD or a treasury bill or bond. I will gradually deploy the proceeds into stocks, CEFs, and ETFs using commission free trades.
Success will be defined as any annual average total return in excess of 4%.
Call 1.5% the current risk free return and another 2.5%+ as the minimum necessary to assume risk.
Buys will not be discussed here and will be in very small baby odd lots. A stock selling between $10 to $20 would be restricted to a 10 share purchase as an example.
Another requirement is that the weighted average yield has to exceed 5%. Assuming the end result is no net loss on the shares, and a weighted average yield of 5%+, I will achieve the 4%+ total annual average return objective.
Even though it will be meaningless, I will try to improve on the total return number through some light trading of the baby odd lots.
Prior to the brokers implementing commission free trades in all accounts including retirement accounts, I would not have been able to implement this version of small ball in a IRA account since there was no way to secure commission free trades.
Vanguard Brokerage Accounts:
Vanguard has not gone to zero commissions for online trades of U.S. stocks. I am currently paying $7 per trade. Vanguard ETFs can now be bought at other brokers commission free. Vanguard charges a $2 per bond commission whereas I can buy bonds at other brokers for a $1 per bond commission. I have noted also that Vanguard's order books for bonds frequently have less advantageous prices for small lot orders compared to Fidelity or Interactive Brokers.
In other words, Vanguard has become by far my most unappealing broker. I see no reason to pay a $7 commission to buy stocks (common or preferred) and CEFs.
Still, the Vanguard MM funds pay more than the ones available at other brokers, and I am able to buy Vanguard mutual funds on a NTF basis. Over 1700 ETFs can be purchased commission free. While commission free ETFs are no longer an advantage for Vanguard, it does provide me with a low cost option when I decide to take on more risk.
I will gradually redeploy funds out of my Vanguard taxable account when and as needed in other brokerage accounts or as a source of funds for expenses.
+++
Interactive Brokerage Account:
Another loser IMO in the commission free era is IB who charges US$1 for online trades in U.S. listed securities.
IB requires their customers to pay for real time quotes which are free at brokers who now charge no commission. Subscription considerations for U.S. market data (Non-Professionals) | IB Knowledge Base (far too complicated IMO) I have never done so. Instead, I will open either my Schwab or Fidelity account, where I have free quotes, and use their quote data when placing trades at IB.
Moreover, IB requires specialized software that I had to purchase as an intermediary for downloads into Quicken. I still have to manually fill in certain information.
When I look at my account at IB, many of the securities have no quotes.
Online Statements do not provide information about lot costs but only the total cost.
While IB is offering a new account with no commission for online U.S. trades of stocks and ETFs, that account comes with several drawbacks that makes it even less desirable for me.
For now, I will be keeping the IB account primarily for bond and international trading.
International trading and currency conversions are cheaper at IB compared to my other brokers. Bond commissions run at $1 per bond which is better than Vanguard and Schwab (only for less than 10 bonds), but no different than what I pay at Fidelity.
++++++
Trump:
Donald is building a wall along Colorado's border with Mexico. Who knew? Trump: ‘We’re building a wall in Colorado’ After someone pointed out to the Duck that there is no common border, Donald claimed he was kidding rather than just being plain ignorant about U.S. geography.
Former VA Secretary David Shulkin speaks out about 'shadow government' under Trump The Inspector General recently issued a report on how Trump's appointees to the VA's Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection took steps to put whistleblowers in more danger of retaliation. Veterans Affairs Whistleblowers Weren't Protected Under Trump, IG Says: NPR
Since college students are voting in increasing numbers, and a majority are not voting for right way, republicans are stepping up their efforts to make it more difficult for students to vote. The Student Vote Is Surging. So Are Efforts to Suppress It. - The New York Times This is to be expected and is a tried and true method used to win close elections.
I mentioned this potential abuse of power in my last post: Trump told Mattis to "screw Amazon" out of Pentagon cloud contract JEDI
Trump thanks Kurds for role in U.S. operation that killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
++++
Trump and the Ukraine:
Army Officer on White House Staff Reported Concerns on Trump’s Ukraine Dealings LT. Colonel Alexander S. Vindman of the Army, the top Ukraine expert on the National Security Council, listened in real time to Trump's call with the Ukraine. Vindman, who has personal knowledge, testified that it was not "proper to demand that a foreign government investigate a U.S. citizen, and I was worried about the implications for the U.S. government’s support of Ukraine." Impeachment Inquiry: Read Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman's Written Testimony: NPR
Vindman testified that Trump's linkage of military aid to an investigation of the Bidens undermined U.S. national security in his opinion.
Vindman's also directly implicates Sondland in the quid pro quo:
If Sondland testified under oath that he did not know that Trump wanted the Ukraine to investigate the Bidens, Vindman's testimony and probably others as well will subject him to possible perjury charges.
Numerous witnesses have direct knowledge of Sondland's quid pro quo in these July meetings occurring prior to Trump's telephone call with Zelensky. Two volatile meetings at the White House have become central to the impeachment inquiry (Ukraine knew about the quid pro quo and knew that it was being pressured before the telephone call)
Gordon Sondland claims he was unaware of Rudy Giuliani’s widely publicized Ukraine-Biden efforts; Sondland’s Ukraine Alibi: I Was the Dumbest Diplomat Ever; This central claim in Gordon Sondland’s testimony just doesn’t add up - The Washington Post
He also conveyed his concerns to national security officials including, on two occasions, to "John A. Eisenberg, the top lawyer at the National Security Council."
Since Vindman's testimony is not favorable to Donald, Fox "News" has already started a campaign to smear him. Laura Ingraham called Vindman a double agent "who is advising Ukraine while working inside the White House, apparently against the president’s interests.” The republican lawyer John Yoo, who provided Bush with a memo claiming torture was consistent with international law including the Geneva convention, replied “I find that astounding, and some people might call that espionage.” Torture Memos - Wikipedia; The Torture Memos, 10 Years Later - The Atlantic'
Note how Ms. Ingraham conflates the president's interest in linking military aid to an investigation of the Bidens, which is only in the Duck's personal political interest, to the nation's interest.
Trump smeared Vindman in usual fact free way. Trump and allies try to undermine impeachment witness Vindman's credibility; Fox show claims Alexander Vindman, who's spent his life in U.S. military, is Ukrainian spy - The Washington Post Vindman immigrated to the U.S. with his family when he was 3.
The following are some of Trump's tweets, published in rapid succession yesterday, attacking Vindman and others who dared to tell the truth:
One republican politician did express concern about the constant republican attacks on patriotic Americans who have served the U.S. in uniform and throughout their adult lives:
Liz Cheney (R-WY): "It is shameful to question their patriotism, their love of this NATION." In Trump's America, that is what stands for a brave statement since it is not brazenly servile to Donald's reality creations and demonstrably false narratives and statements.
"Have You No Sense of Decency, Sir?"-YouTube (refers to what Joseph Welch said to Senator Joseph McCarthy) If that question involved Donald Trump, the answer would be a resounding "no". Trump is just a thoroughly disgusting and repulsive human being.
The conservative commentator David French observed that the "sheer number of American vets the Trumpists will insult, slander, and mock for the sake of their corrupt, draft-dodging dear leader is just astonishing.”
The republicans, their obedient and never questioning propagandists at Fox "News", and Trump's cult members will try to smear anyone with false assertions who dares to contradict the Duck's lies with truthful testimony made under oath.
+++
Donald, his GOP Enablers and Impeachment:
Republicans are not telling the faithful that their members are attending the closed depositions and are asking questions.
Their questions during those depositions do not reflect any interest in developing the facts, but on trying to unmask the first whistleblower, who has now been attacked by Donald over 40 times, and to ask foolish questions about their pet conspiracy theories. In impeachment inquiry, Republican lawmakers ask questions about whistleblower, loyalty to Trump and conspiracy theories
Devin Nunes, his staff advisor Derek Harvey, and the GOP bomb thrower Jim Jordan are in attendance. Harvey was fired by General McMaster from the NSC and landed a job with Nunes.
The republicans have gone rogue in their defense of Trump: Nunes Aide Is Leaking the Ukraine Whistleblower’s Name, Sources Say
Trump has accused the whistleblower of "treason" and "almost a spy". Trump: “You know what we used to do in the old days when we were smart with spies and treason, right? We used to handle it a little differently than we do now.” Whistleblower: Donald Trump says source of complaint is 'almost a spy': USA Today
Even though the whistleblower's was spot on describing the conversation between Trump and Zelensky, which was confirmed by the summary of the call released by the Duck and several witnesses, Donald continues to assert the whistleblower's account of his "perfect" call was fraudulent and biased.
Trump's Inaccurate Claims About His 'Perfect' Call- FactCheck.org;
Whistleblower under fire by Donald Trump and anti-impeachment allies: USA Today
Trump escalates attacks on whistleblower | TheHill
Nunes and Jordon are among the most vitriolic Trumpsters in the House. “Idiots,” “Anarchists,” and “Assholes”: John Boehner Unloads on Republicans in Post-Retirement Interview | Vanity Fair
John Bolton, welcome to the Resistance? Bolton's testimony could be devastating to Donald, but that will not matter to the republican politicians and the Trumpsters. Impeachment inquiry: John Bolton is in talks to testify - Vox
Just more rants from Delusional Don: Trump Threatens to Sue Democrats and 'Shifty Adam Schiff' for Fraud Over Impeachment In TrumpWorld, the alleged fraud committed by Schiff was to describe the substance of Trump's telephone call with Zelensky as revealed by the summary released by Donald.
CollegeReaction.com-Poll: 75% of college students support impeachment
++
John Kelly and Trump:
'I feel bad that I left': John Kelly warned Trump he would be impeached; John Kelly says he told Trump a 'yes man' would get him impeached
Donald responded to that quip: White House: John Kelly 'was totally unequipped to handle the genius of our great President' - CNN I bet that was dictated by the Duck himself-certainly sounds like it.
The bottom line is that there is no one left who will restrain Trump from violating the law and abusing his power.
++
Republican Complaints About the Impeachment Process:
Trump lawyer claims lack of due process in House impeachment. 3 reasons the law doesn’t back him up | PolitiFact
Republicans storm impeachment inquiry deposition in House Intel hearing room This political stunt delayed the testimony of Laura Cooper, a deputy assistant secretary of defense who had been ordered by Trump to disobey the House subpoena as part of his obstruction of justice efforts. Pentagon official testifies about withheld military aid to Ukraine - POLITICO
The House parliamentarian ruled that they had no right to be in the Intel hearing room. Further, the republicans broke House rules by bringing their cell phones in that secure facility, refusing to remove the devices after being warmed by the sergeant at arms.
Impeachment deposition delayed after Republicans storm proceedings - POLITICO This is what Donald wanted them to do but only a couple dozen complied with his demand.
What Trump and his compadres fail to note is that republican members of the House committees are attending the depositions and asking questions.
Republicans crash secure room, disrupt testimony in impeachment probe
House Democrat says all Ukraine witness transcripts will be released after being scrubbed for classified Information - Axios
In a grand jury investigation, deliberations are kept secret in part to prevent witnesses from knowing, prior to giving testimony, what other witnesses have said about the same subject matter.
The purpose is to prevent as much as possible witness collaboration which results in consistent but false or misleading testimony.
The same underlying principle takes place in civil trials where non-party witnesses are sequestered and not allowed to attend the hearing until called upon to give their testimony.
The republicans want to focus on the process rather than the substance of the inquiry; and there are reasons why that is the case. The facts do not support their case.
Their complaints about the process have no merit but serve to distract from the substance being revealed.
The House will hold public hearings. House Democrats release resolution detailing next steps in impeachment inquiry Republican and Democrat staff counsel can question each witnesses for up to 45 minutes. The President's counsel can participate. Republicans are not happy that they will not be able to subpoena conspiracy wingnuts and turn the hearings into a circus.
The Democrats will want the public to see and hear the key witnesses and republicans will have a chance to grandstand and act wrap themselves in victimhood during the hearings.
I would note that Senator Graham, who is one of the biggest, in-your-face hypocrites in Washington, is the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. If he wants to hold hearings and subpoena witnesses, he can do so. He has the power to hold public hearings on the matters being investigated by the House.
Republicans believe that lying about the evidence is going to help them resist impeachment and that will work on millions of their tribe members who will believe them, notwithstanding the proof.
The problem with that approach is that they will lose credibility among voters who are aware of what they are doing and find it disgusting.
Losing those independent and marginal republican voters would not matter in strong republican districts and states, but could easily swing elections to Democrats in swing states and districts. Trump will carry Tennessee, for example, no matter how many egregious acts that he commits.
++
2020 Senate Elections:
The Democrats have the advantage in picking up seats in 2020, whereas the GOP had the advantage in 2018.
In the 2020 senate races, the following republicans are vulnerable now to losing: Collins (Maine), Ernst (Iowa); Gardiner (Colorado), McSally (Arizona), and Tillis (North Carolina).
A few others may find their reelection efforts more difficult than currently anticipated by them, provided the Democrats field a viable candidate, but will most likely win nonetheless: Cassidy (Louisiana), Cornyn (Texas), Cotton (Arkansas), Danes (Montana); McConnell (Kentucky) and Rounds (South Dakota). To have a chance in those elections, the Democrats will need a viable candidate and ongoing recession on election day. Of the mentioned in this paragraph, the one that is most likely to flip to a Democrat senator first is Arkansas IMO. Cotton may be too far right for Arkansas.
The only vulnerable Democrat senator in 2020 is Jones (Alabama).
{There is not yet a viable candidate running against Cotton (R-AK). Senator Cassidy (R-LA) beat a Democrat incumbent in 2014. McConnell is facing a potentially viable candidate in Amy McGrath. A major problem in South Dakota is that independent candidates make it difficult for a Democrat to win, with 2 independent candidates taking 20.1% of the vote when Rounds won in 2014. Rounds won the election with 50.4% of the vote. SD has elected democrats as senators, with the two most widely known being George McGovern and Tom Daschle}
United States Senate elections, 2020 - Ballotpedia
Although I voted for republicans in the past, that will not be repeated anytime soon since IMO the entire republican party needs to be punished for embracing and nurturing Donald Trump.
++++
GOP Hypocrisy About Insults:
Donald is building a wall along Colorado's border with Mexico. Who knew? Trump: ‘We’re building a wall in Colorado’ After someone pointed out to the Duck that there is no common border, Donald claimed he was kidding rather than just being plain ignorant about U.S. geography.
Former VA Secretary David Shulkin speaks out about 'shadow government' under Trump The Inspector General recently issued a report on how Trump's appointees to the VA's Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection took steps to put whistleblowers in more danger of retaliation. Veterans Affairs Whistleblowers Weren't Protected Under Trump, IG Says: NPR
Since college students are voting in increasing numbers, and a majority are not voting for right way, republicans are stepping up their efforts to make it more difficult for students to vote. The Student Vote Is Surging. So Are Efforts to Suppress It. - The New York Times This is to be expected and is a tried and true method used to win close elections.
I mentioned this potential abuse of power in my last post: Trump told Mattis to "screw Amazon" out of Pentagon cloud contract JEDI
Trump thanks Kurds for role in U.S. operation that killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
++++
Trump and the Ukraine:
Army Officer on White House Staff Reported Concerns on Trump’s Ukraine Dealings LT. Colonel Alexander S. Vindman of the Army, the top Ukraine expert on the National Security Council, listened in real time to Trump's call with the Ukraine. Vindman, who has personal knowledge, testified that it was not "proper to demand that a foreign government investigate a U.S. citizen, and I was worried about the implications for the U.S. government’s support of Ukraine." Impeachment Inquiry: Read Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman's Written Testimony: NPR
Vindman testified that Trump's linkage of military aid to an investigation of the Bidens undermined U.S. national security in his opinion.
Vindman's also directly implicates Sondland in the quid pro quo:
Numerous witnesses have direct knowledge of Sondland's quid pro quo in these July meetings occurring prior to Trump's telephone call with Zelensky. Two volatile meetings at the White House have become central to the impeachment inquiry (Ukraine knew about the quid pro quo and knew that it was being pressured before the telephone call)
Gordon Sondland claims he was unaware of Rudy Giuliani’s widely publicized Ukraine-Biden efforts; Sondland’s Ukraine Alibi: I Was the Dumbest Diplomat Ever; This central claim in Gordon Sondland’s testimony just doesn’t add up - The Washington Post
He also conveyed his concerns to national security officials including, on two occasions, to "John A. Eisenberg, the top lawyer at the National Security Council."
Since Vindman's testimony is not favorable to Donald, Fox "News" has already started a campaign to smear him. Laura Ingraham called Vindman a double agent "who is advising Ukraine while working inside the White House, apparently against the president’s interests.” The republican lawyer John Yoo, who provided Bush with a memo claiming torture was consistent with international law including the Geneva convention, replied “I find that astounding, and some people might call that espionage.” Torture Memos - Wikipedia; The Torture Memos, 10 Years Later - The Atlantic'
Note how Ms. Ingraham conflates the president's interest in linking military aid to an investigation of the Bidens, which is only in the Duck's personal political interest, to the nation's interest.
Trump smeared Vindman in usual fact free way. Trump and allies try to undermine impeachment witness Vindman's credibility; Fox show claims Alexander Vindman, who's spent his life in U.S. military, is Ukrainian spy - The Washington Post Vindman immigrated to the U.S. with his family when he was 3.
The following are some of Trump's tweets, published in rapid succession yesterday, attacking Vindman and others who dared to tell the truth:
One republican politician did express concern about the constant republican attacks on patriotic Americans who have served the U.S. in uniform and throughout their adult lives:
Liz Cheney (R-WY): "It is shameful to question their patriotism, their love of this NATION." In Trump's America, that is what stands for a brave statement since it is not brazenly servile to Donald's reality creations and demonstrably false narratives and statements.
"Have You No Sense of Decency, Sir?"-YouTube (refers to what Joseph Welch said to Senator Joseph McCarthy) If that question involved Donald Trump, the answer would be a resounding "no". Trump is just a thoroughly disgusting and repulsive human being.
The conservative commentator David French observed that the "sheer number of American vets the Trumpists will insult, slander, and mock for the sake of their corrupt, draft-dodging dear leader is just astonishing.”
The republicans, their obedient and never questioning propagandists at Fox "News", and Trump's cult members will try to smear anyone with false assertions who dares to contradict the Duck's lies with truthful testimony made under oath.
+++
Donald, his GOP Enablers and Impeachment:
Republicans are not telling the faithful that their members are attending the closed depositions and are asking questions.
Their questions during those depositions do not reflect any interest in developing the facts, but on trying to unmask the first whistleblower, who has now been attacked by Donald over 40 times, and to ask foolish questions about their pet conspiracy theories. In impeachment inquiry, Republican lawmakers ask questions about whistleblower, loyalty to Trump and conspiracy theories
Devin Nunes, his staff advisor Derek Harvey, and the GOP bomb thrower Jim Jordan are in attendance. Harvey was fired by General McMaster from the NSC and landed a job with Nunes.
The republicans have gone rogue in their defense of Trump: Nunes Aide Is Leaking the Ukraine Whistleblower’s Name, Sources Say
Trump has accused the whistleblower of "treason" and "almost a spy". Trump: “You know what we used to do in the old days when we were smart with spies and treason, right? We used to handle it a little differently than we do now.” Whistleblower: Donald Trump says source of complaint is 'almost a spy': USA Today
Even though the whistleblower's was spot on describing the conversation between Trump and Zelensky, which was confirmed by the summary of the call released by the Duck and several witnesses, Donald continues to assert the whistleblower's account of his "perfect" call was fraudulent and biased.
Trump's Inaccurate Claims About His 'Perfect' Call- FactCheck.org;
Whistleblower under fire by Donald Trump and anti-impeachment allies: USA Today
Trump escalates attacks on whistleblower | TheHill
Nunes and Jordon are among the most vitriolic Trumpsters in the House. “Idiots,” “Anarchists,” and “Assholes”: John Boehner Unloads on Republicans in Post-Retirement Interview | Vanity Fair
John Bolton, welcome to the Resistance? Bolton's testimony could be devastating to Donald, but that will not matter to the republican politicians and the Trumpsters. Impeachment inquiry: John Bolton is in talks to testify - Vox
Just more rants from Delusional Don: Trump Threatens to Sue Democrats and 'Shifty Adam Schiff' for Fraud Over Impeachment In TrumpWorld, the alleged fraud committed by Schiff was to describe the substance of Trump's telephone call with Zelensky as revealed by the summary released by Donald.
CollegeReaction.com-Poll: 75% of college students support impeachment
++
John Kelly and Trump:
'I feel bad that I left': John Kelly warned Trump he would be impeached; John Kelly says he told Trump a 'yes man' would get him impeached
Donald responded to that quip: White House: John Kelly 'was totally unequipped to handle the genius of our great President' - CNN I bet that was dictated by the Duck himself-certainly sounds like it.
The bottom line is that there is no one left who will restrain Trump from violating the law and abusing his power.
++
Republican Complaints About the Impeachment Process:
Trump lawyer claims lack of due process in House impeachment. 3 reasons the law doesn’t back him up | PolitiFact
Republicans storm impeachment inquiry deposition in House Intel hearing room This political stunt delayed the testimony of Laura Cooper, a deputy assistant secretary of defense who had been ordered by Trump to disobey the House subpoena as part of his obstruction of justice efforts. Pentagon official testifies about withheld military aid to Ukraine - POLITICO
The House parliamentarian ruled that they had no right to be in the Intel hearing room. Further, the republicans broke House rules by bringing their cell phones in that secure facility, refusing to remove the devices after being warmed by the sergeant at arms.
Impeachment deposition delayed after Republicans storm proceedings - POLITICO This is what Donald wanted them to do but only a couple dozen complied with his demand.
What Trump and his compadres fail to note is that republican members of the House committees are attending the depositions and asking questions.
Republicans crash secure room, disrupt testimony in impeachment probe
House Democrat says all Ukraine witness transcripts will be released after being scrubbed for classified Information - Axios
In a grand jury investigation, deliberations are kept secret in part to prevent witnesses from knowing, prior to giving testimony, what other witnesses have said about the same subject matter.
The purpose is to prevent as much as possible witness collaboration which results in consistent but false or misleading testimony.
The same underlying principle takes place in civil trials where non-party witnesses are sequestered and not allowed to attend the hearing until called upon to give their testimony.
The republicans want to focus on the process rather than the substance of the inquiry; and there are reasons why that is the case. The facts do not support their case.
Their complaints about the process have no merit but serve to distract from the substance being revealed.
The House will hold public hearings. House Democrats release resolution detailing next steps in impeachment inquiry Republican and Democrat staff counsel can question each witnesses for up to 45 minutes. The President's counsel can participate. Republicans are not happy that they will not be able to subpoena conspiracy wingnuts and turn the hearings into a circus.
The Democrats will want the public to see and hear the key witnesses and republicans will have a chance to grandstand and act wrap themselves in victimhood during the hearings.
I would note that Senator Graham, who is one of the biggest, in-your-face hypocrites in Washington, is the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. If he wants to hold hearings and subpoena witnesses, he can do so. He has the power to hold public hearings on the matters being investigated by the House.
Republicans believe that lying about the evidence is going to help them resist impeachment and that will work on millions of their tribe members who will believe them, notwithstanding the proof.
The problem with that approach is that they will lose credibility among voters who are aware of what they are doing and find it disgusting.
Losing those independent and marginal republican voters would not matter in strong republican districts and states, but could easily swing elections to Democrats in swing states and districts. Trump will carry Tennessee, for example, no matter how many egregious acts that he commits.
++
2020 Senate Elections:
The Democrats have the advantage in picking up seats in 2020, whereas the GOP had the advantage in 2018.
In the 2020 senate races, the following republicans are vulnerable now to losing: Collins (Maine), Ernst (Iowa); Gardiner (Colorado), McSally (Arizona), and Tillis (North Carolina).
A few others may find their reelection efforts more difficult than currently anticipated by them, provided the Democrats field a viable candidate, but will most likely win nonetheless: Cassidy (Louisiana), Cornyn (Texas), Cotton (Arkansas), Danes (Montana); McConnell (Kentucky) and Rounds (South Dakota). To have a chance in those elections, the Democrats will need a viable candidate and ongoing recession on election day. Of the mentioned in this paragraph, the one that is most likely to flip to a Democrat senator first is Arkansas IMO. Cotton may be too far right for Arkansas.
The only vulnerable Democrat senator in 2020 is Jones (Alabama).
{There is not yet a viable candidate running against Cotton (R-AK). Senator Cassidy (R-LA) beat a Democrat incumbent in 2014. McConnell is facing a potentially viable candidate in Amy McGrath. A major problem in South Dakota is that independent candidates make it difficult for a Democrat to win, with 2 independent candidates taking 20.1% of the vote when Rounds won in 2014. Rounds won the election with 50.4% of the vote. SD has elected democrats as senators, with the two most widely known being George McGovern and Tom Daschle}
United States Senate elections, 2020 - Ballotpedia
Although I voted for republicans in the past, that will not be repeated anytime soon since IMO the entire republican party needs to be punished for embracing and nurturing Donald Trump.
++++
GOP Hypocrisy About Insults:
The Trumpsters were really upset when Hillary called 1/2 of them "deplorables", a totally inept and politically incompetent comment made by her, and she quickly apologized for saying one-half after the damage to her winning the election was done. Hillary Clinton Said 'Half' Of Trump Supporters Are In A 'Basket Of Deplorables' : NPR
There are undesirable people who support candidates of every political persuasion.
The Trumpsters are not upset, however, when Donald asserts that Democrats are unpatriotic as he did last week. Instead of booing those kind of remarks, the Trumpsters cheer. Trump, In Texas, Bashes Democrats as 'Crazy' and Unpatriotic | Time
What is the difference? Trump's pejorative and inflammatory comments about Democrats occur almost daily while Hillary's absurd comment was made once.
Just the other day, Donald called republicans who do not support him "human scum". Donald Trump describes Republican critics as 'human scum': USA Today This is normal for the current President of the United States.
Trump has repeatedly slimed William Taylor, who has served the U.S. for 50 years as a dedicated and non-partisan public servant, because the Duck was angry about anyone daring to tell the truth and disobeying his order to refrain from testifying. The White House resorts to character assassination of courageous public servants - The Washington Post ("After graduating from West Point, he was deployed for six years as an infantry officer, including with the 101st Airborne Division in Vietnam. Later he worked at NATO and as a State Department diplomat in Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel and Ukraine, where he was first appointed ambassador by George W. Bush.')
Fact-check: Despite Trump's claim, there's no proof diplomat Bill Taylor is a Never Trumper
Bill Taylor defended as a 'man of honor' and 'public servant' by three veterans who served with him
At age 72, Taylor had been asked by Pompeo to become the acting U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine after Donald fired Marie Yovanovitch for doing her job. How Former Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch Became A Target In Ukraine : NPR
I view myself as an independent and have barely managed-on very rare occasions - a hardly detectable, tepidly lukewarm response to any politician. I have voted for republicans in the past.
My general response is that I like none of the candidates but the decree of dislike will vary-sometimes substantially which is the case with Trump. Some of you may have guessed that I am not a Trump fan.
I do believe it is appropriate to be critical of anyone who views Donald as honest and a role model for their children; and/or who accepts his reality creations and unsubstantiated wingnut conspiracy theories as facts; and/or who fails to recognize Donald's malignant narcissism, strong authoritarian tendencies, demagoguery, viciousness and persistent efforts to enhance the political divide.
This does not mean that those persons are "deplorables" or anything close, but their judgment, common sense and knowledge can legitimately be questioned. They need to do better in their roles as citizens but I would not hold my breathe on that one.
When I was growing up, blue color men and women voted predominantly for Democrats, recognizing correctly IMO that the GOP was more concerned with advancing the interest of their employers and the rich who supported their political campaigns in exchange for lower tax bills.
A majority of those workers now support Trump and the republicans. Analysis: Trump Leans on a Changed GOP for Support
Two common themes that contributed to that political transition was a shared belief that the Democrats "looked down on them" and were far more willing to help those who did not work than those he did.
The republican policy objectives have not changed over the years.
The focus is to reduce taxes for their wealthy individual and corporate benefactors; to reduce environmental regulations; to reduce spending on social programs including Medicare and programs that primarily benefit their rural voters; and to increase defense spending as a percentage of overall federal spending.
What has changed is that the GOP has convinced working class voters that those policies are actually for their benefit.
Some of those workers will switch back and forth between the two major parties. Many did vote for Obama and Trump.
For the vast majority of them who do not base their vote on certain social issues like abortion or gay marriage, there will need to incontrovertible proof that the GOP has sold them a bill of goods as a precondition for a non-temporary political party realignment.
Trickle down economics was never meant to benefit them and never did.
But that is not obvious at the current time with the economy still producing jobs and some GDP growth.
Perhaps a few eyes will be opened during the next recession or financial crisis that results in another Near Depression or Great Depression. During the last Great Depression, people understood that tax breaks for the wealthy were not going to solve the problem.
There are undesirable people who support candidates of every political persuasion.
The Trumpsters are not upset, however, when Donald asserts that Democrats are unpatriotic as he did last week. Instead of booing those kind of remarks, the Trumpsters cheer. Trump, In Texas, Bashes Democrats as 'Crazy' and Unpatriotic | Time
What is the difference? Trump's pejorative and inflammatory comments about Democrats occur almost daily while Hillary's absurd comment was made once.
Just the other day, Donald called republicans who do not support him "human scum". Donald Trump describes Republican critics as 'human scum': USA Today This is normal for the current President of the United States.
Trump has repeatedly slimed William Taylor, who has served the U.S. for 50 years as a dedicated and non-partisan public servant, because the Duck was angry about anyone daring to tell the truth and disobeying his order to refrain from testifying. The White House resorts to character assassination of courageous public servants - The Washington Post ("After graduating from West Point, he was deployed for six years as an infantry officer, including with the 101st Airborne Division in Vietnam. Later he worked at NATO and as a State Department diplomat in Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel and Ukraine, where he was first appointed ambassador by George W. Bush.')
Fact-check: Despite Trump's claim, there's no proof diplomat Bill Taylor is a Never Trumper
Bill Taylor defended as a 'man of honor' and 'public servant' by three veterans who served with him
At age 72, Taylor had been asked by Pompeo to become the acting U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine after Donald fired Marie Yovanovitch for doing her job. How Former Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch Became A Target In Ukraine : NPR
I view myself as an independent and have barely managed-on very rare occasions - a hardly detectable, tepidly lukewarm response to any politician. I have voted for republicans in the past.
My general response is that I like none of the candidates but the decree of dislike will vary-sometimes substantially which is the case with Trump. Some of you may have guessed that I am not a Trump fan.
I do believe it is appropriate to be critical of anyone who views Donald as honest and a role model for their children; and/or who accepts his reality creations and unsubstantiated wingnut conspiracy theories as facts; and/or who fails to recognize Donald's malignant narcissism, strong authoritarian tendencies, demagoguery, viciousness and persistent efforts to enhance the political divide.
This does not mean that those persons are "deplorables" or anything close, but their judgment, common sense and knowledge can legitimately be questioned. They need to do better in their roles as citizens but I would not hold my breathe on that one.
When I was growing up, blue color men and women voted predominantly for Democrats, recognizing correctly IMO that the GOP was more concerned with advancing the interest of their employers and the rich who supported their political campaigns in exchange for lower tax bills.
A majority of those workers now support Trump and the republicans. Analysis: Trump Leans on a Changed GOP for Support
Two common themes that contributed to that political transition was a shared belief that the Democrats "looked down on them" and were far more willing to help those who did not work than those he did.
The republican policy objectives have not changed over the years.
The focus is to reduce taxes for their wealthy individual and corporate benefactors; to reduce environmental regulations; to reduce spending on social programs including Medicare and programs that primarily benefit their rural voters; and to increase defense spending as a percentage of overall federal spending.
What has changed is that the GOP has convinced working class voters that those policies are actually for their benefit.
Some of those workers will switch back and forth between the two major parties. Many did vote for Obama and Trump.
For the vast majority of them who do not base their vote on certain social issues like abortion or gay marriage, there will need to incontrovertible proof that the GOP has sold them a bill of goods as a precondition for a non-temporary political party realignment.
Trickle down economics was never meant to benefit them and never did.
But that is not obvious at the current time with the economy still producing jobs and some GDP growth.
Perhaps a few eyes will be opened during the next recession or financial crisis that results in another Near Depression or Great Depression. During the last Great Depression, people understood that tax breaks for the wealthy were not going to solve the problem.
+++++++++++++
Directional Change in Intermediate and Long Term Interest Rates from Down to Up:
The rationale for paring both JRI and DPG, discussed below, is the recent directional change in longer term interest rates; and my hyper sensitive approach to accomplishing my primary objective of capital preservation.
The directional change in the ten year treasury yield from down to up started on 10/4/19. 2019 Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates The reason for a pare rather than an elimination is that the duration and significance of the directional change remains uncertain.
The JRI and DPG CEFs are highly leveraged and own stocks and other securities that are sensitive to directional changes in interest rates. Those securities have also enjoyed a substantial rally in price as interest rates fell throughout this year.
The cost of leverage, which is tied to short term rates, continues to move down.
Directional Change in Intermediate and Long Term Interest Rates from Down to Up:
The rationale for paring both JRI and DPG, discussed below, is the recent directional change in longer term interest rates; and my hyper sensitive approach to accomplishing my primary objective of capital preservation.
The JRI and DPG CEFs are highly leveraged and own stocks and other securities that are sensitive to directional changes in interest rates. Those securities have also enjoyed a substantial rally in price as interest rates fell throughout this year.
The cost of leverage, which is tied to short term rates, continues to move down.
1. Pares-All Commission Free Trades Except for JRI:
A. Sold 100 JRI at $17.51 ($1 IB Commission):
Quote: Nuveen Real Asset Income & Growth Fund Overview
Sponsor's Website: JRI
JRI Nuveen Real Asset Inc & Growth CEF Connect
Closing Price Yesterday: JRI $17.72 +$0.07 +0.40%
Profit Snapshot: +$100.41
A. Sold 100 JRI at $17.51 ($1 IB Commission):
Quote: Nuveen Real Asset Income & Growth Fund Overview
Sponsor's Website: JRI
JRI Nuveen Real Asset Inc & Growth CEF Connect
Closing Price Yesterday: JRI $17.72 +$0.07 +0.40%
Profit Snapshot: +$100.41
Item # 4 Bought 100 JRI at $16.47 (IB Account)(6/26/19 Post)
I have decided to trade this one due to its high expense ratio excluding interest expenses.
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 4 Sold Highest Cost 100 share JRI lot at $17.23 (10/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $40.45)
This leaves me with a 100 share lot bought in my Fidelity account and shares purchased with the monthly dividends. Item # 4 Bought 100 JRI at $16.59
Dividend: Monthly at $.106 (some ROC support), raised to $.1170 effective for the 11/15/19 ex dividend date.
Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund Announces Adoption of Managed Distribution Policy and Increase in Distribution Rate
This dividend increase will probably be sourced from ROC, though it is possible that realized capital gains may lessen the ROC support periodically.
I have decided to trade this one due to its high expense ratio excluding interest expenses.
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 4 Sold Highest Cost 100 share JRI lot at $17.23 (10/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $40.45)
This leaves me with a 100 share lot bought in my Fidelity account and shares purchased with the monthly dividends. Item # 4 Bought 100 JRI at $16.59
Dividend: Monthly at $.106 (some ROC support), raised to $.1170 effective for the 11/15/19 ex dividend date.
Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund Announces Adoption of Managed Distribution Policy and Increase in Distribution Rate
This dividend increase will probably be sourced from ROC, though it is possible that realized capital gains may lessen the ROC support periodically.
Last Ex Dividend: 10/14/19 (before this pare)
Next Ex Dividend: 11/14/19 (new penny rate effective)
Expense Ratios: The fund computes two expense ratios.
One calculation is based on the costs as a percentage of "shareholder capital":
The other calculation is based on "total investment capital" which includes securities bought with debt:
The fund is leveraged at close to 30%. If you remove the assets bought with borrowed money, the expense ratio, excluding interest expense, is too high IMO.
I discuss the risks associated with CEF's that use significant leverage in this post. Update For Closed End Fund Basket Strategy As Of 8/14/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (scroll to General Risk Discussion for Leveraged Bond CEFs); see also: Introduction to 5/8/17 Post.
The risks related to buying securities with borrowed money are obvious.
Buying assets that go down in price with borrowed money will not produce favorable results.
If the assets decline sufficiently in price, the leveraged CEF may have to sell assets at the worst possible time to reduce debt, which happened to several of them during the Near Depression period and its immediate aftermath.
The cost of the borrowings could go up, narrowing or eliminating (or worse) the spread between what the fund has to pay on the borrowed funds and the amount received in dividend and/or interest payments on the assets bought with borrowed money. The narrowing of that spread could lead to a dividend cut.
B. Sold 13 AT & T at $38.49- Commission Free at Fidelity Now:
Closing Price Yesterday: T $38.06 -$0.43 -1.12%
Profit = $74.41
I sold the shares that had a cost basis over $32 (my highest cost lots) which reduced my average cost per share from $30.19 to $29.39.
Small Ball Trading Rules
The main goal in small ball trading is capital preservation, achieved in part by selling dividend paying stocks into rallies and buying dips.
Other capital preservation techniques, broadly categorized as risk management, are (1) baby lot buys which results in limited at risk cash exposure; (2) on and off dividend reinvestment based on price levels; (3) tightly controlled buying mostly in high yield stocks or stocks with a long history of dividend increases; and (4) buying only when the price is at the lowest price in the chain other than the dividend reinvestment price.
The secondary goals are to generate income and to harvest some capital gains by selling the highest cost lots which reduces my average cost per share and increases my dividend yield.
For higher yielding stocks like AT & T, I define victory as avoiding a net loss on the shares. So far, I have been successful in realizing modest profits on my highest cost lots and in reducing my average cost per share.
Average Cost Before Pare: $30.19
Average Cost After Pare: $29.39
 |
| Snapshot Taken During Trading Day 10/18/19 |
AT&T Inc.
Current Dividend Yield at $29.39 = 6.94%
With modest annual dividend increases, the dividend yield will go up since my average cost per share will remain constant until I restart dividend reinvestment or buy additional shares at below $26.95, the lowest purchase price in the current chain.
Dividend Reinvestment: No above $35
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19): Released after pare
Adjusted E.P.S. = $.94, one cent better than the consensus
GAAP E.P.S. - $.50
Free Cash Flow = $6.2B
3 Year Outlook: compound annual revenue growth of 1% to 2%; modest dividend increases, and paying off debt from the Time Warner acquisition by 2022.
C. Sold 100 DPG at $15.71:
Quote: Duff & Phelps Global Utility Income Fund Inc. (DPG)
Sponsor's Website: Duff & Phelps Global Utility Income Fund Inc.
SEC Filings
Closing Price Yesterday: DPG $15.47 -$0.04 -0.26%
Profit Snapshot = $42.37
Item # 6 Bought 100 DPG at $15.29 (9/1/19 Post)
I received 1 quarterly dividend of $35. Most of that dividend has been tentatively been classified as ROC. That may change depending on whether the fund realizes capital gains to reduce or eliminate the ROC support.
Last Ex Dividend Date: 9/13/19, paid on 9/30/19
Leveraged: Yes, significantly.
I still own shares in my Schwab taxable account and in my Vanguard Roth IRA. I am reinvesting the dividend in those accounts. Item # 5 Added 50 DPG at $12.87 in a Roth IRA Account (1/9/19 Post)
I have elected to trade this CEF in other accounts using a dividend harvest strategy.
When utilizing a dividend harvest strategy for leveraged CEFs, timing of trades will depend on a number of factors, including the length of time to the next ex dividend date, the discount to net asset values at the time of purchase and sell compared to historical numbers, and investor interest or disinterest in the securities owned by the CEF.
When I bought this 100 share lot, the discount to net asset value per share was at -9.54 and had narrowed to -5.59% on sell date.
The 3 year average historical discount as of 10/21 was at -11.2%.
Those numbers would justify selling the position at a profit after harvesting just one dividend and then to look for another re-entry point prior to the next ex dividend date.
Data Date of Sell (10/21/19)
Closing Market Price: $15.71
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $16.64
Discount: -5.59%
Sourced: Duff & Phelps Global Utility-CEF Connect
D. Sold 112+ SRET at $15.28:
Quote: Global X SuperDividend REIT ETF Overview
Sponsor's Website: SuperDividend® REIT ETF
Closing Price Yesterday: SRET $15.31 +$0.06 +0.36%
Profit Snapshot: +$58.38
I kept the position in my Fidelity account where I am reinvesting the monthly dividend payment. Item # 1.B. Bought 50 SRET at $14.8 Used Commission Free Trade (5/17/18 Post)
Dividends: Monthly
Last Ex Dividend: 10/3/19 (received)
Last Sold: Item # 1. B. Sold 50 SRET at $14.79-In A Roth IRA Account-Commission Free for Vanguard customers (4/3/19 Post)(profit snapshot $45.49)
2. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
November 2019 Maturities:
SU = Senior Unsecured Bond ($1K par value per bond)
FM = First Mortgage Bond
CD = Certificate of Deposit ($1K par value per CD)-FDIC Insured
MI = Monthly Interest Payments
Treasury: U.S. Treasury Debt ($1K par value per bill, note or bond)
IR: Investment Rate for Treasury Bills Bought at Auction
Secondary Market: Commission Free Bond Market Purchase at below Par Value
Secondary Market: Commission Free Bond Market Purchase at below Par Value
2 Constellation Brands 2% SU 11/1 (bought 1/18)
3 NASB 2% CDs 11/4 (1 month CD)
5 Treasury 56 D Bills 1.999% IR 11/5 (bought at auction)
1 Treasury 1 Year T Bill 2.737% IR 11/7 (bought 11/18)
5 Treasury 3MO T Bill 2.033% 11/7 (bought at auction)
5 Hancock CDs 2% 11/8 (1 month CD)
5 Treasury 6MO T Bill 2.449% IR (bought at auction)
2 Merrick BK 1.75% CDs MI 11/8 (2 Year CDs)
2 Wells Fargo 1.% CDs MI 11/8 (2 Year CDs)
10 Treasury 56 Day Bill 1.958%IR 11/12 (bought at auction)
10 Treasury 3Mo Bills 2.003%IR 11/14 (bought at auction)
1 MB Financial 1.75% MI 11/15 (2 Year CDs)
5 Treasury 1% 11/15 (secondary market)
4 Associated Banks 2.75% SU 11/15 (bought 6/18; 3/19)
4 Walgreens 2.7% SU 11/18 (2/18 and 6/18)
3 Valley National 1.95% CDs 11/18 (2 month CDs)
2 Bank of China 2.4% CDs 11/19 (5 month CDs)
2 Treasury 2.407%IR 6MO Bills 11/21 (bought at auction)
5 Treasury 1.941% IR 91 day bill 11/21 (bought at auction)
2 Abbott Labs 2.35% SU 11/22 (bought 1/18)
1 Wells Fargo 2.65% CD MI 11/26 (13 month CD)
2 Merrick BK 1.85% CDs MI 11/29 (2 Year CD)
5 Treasury 3MO T Bill 11/29 1.992%IR (bought at auction)
3 Treasury 1.75% 11/30 (secondary market)
2 Treasury 1% 11/30 (secondary market)
9 Treasury 1.5% 11/30 (secondary market)
$101K
* I lost 2 SU bonds, issued by Scripps Networks (now part of Discover), that would have matured this month, to an early redemption occurring last June.
A. Bought 2 Wells Fargo 1.8% CDs (monthly interest payments) Maturing on 11/18/20:
B. Bought 2 Bank of China NY 1.85% CDs Maturing on 4/29/20:
10 Treasury 56 Day Bill 1.958%IR 11/12 (bought at auction)
10 Treasury 3Mo Bills 2.003%IR 11/14 (bought at auction)
1 MB Financial 1.75% MI 11/15 (2 Year CDs)
5 Treasury 1% 11/15 (secondary market)
4 Associated Banks 2.75% SU 11/15 (bought 6/18; 3/19)
4 Walgreens 2.7% SU 11/18 (2/18 and 6/18)
3 Valley National 1.95% CDs 11/18 (2 month CDs)
2 Bank of China 2.4% CDs 11/19 (5 month CDs)
2 Treasury 2.407%IR 6MO Bills 11/21 (bought at auction)
5 Treasury 1.941% IR 91 day bill 11/21 (bought at auction)
2 Abbott Labs 2.35% SU 11/22 (bought 1/18)
1 Wells Fargo 2.65% CD MI 11/26 (13 month CD)
2 Merrick BK 1.85% CDs MI 11/29 (2 Year CD)
5 Treasury 3MO T Bill 11/29 1.992%IR (bought at auction)
3 Treasury 1.75% 11/30 (secondary market)
2 Treasury 1% 11/30 (secondary market)
9 Treasury 1.5% 11/30 (secondary market)
$101K
* I lost 2 SU bonds, issued by Scripps Networks (now part of Discover), that would have matured this month, to an early redemption occurring last June.
A. Bought 2 Wells Fargo 1.8% CDs (monthly interest payments) Maturing on 11/18/20:
B. Bought 2 Bank of China NY 1.85% CDs Maturing on 4/29/20:
C. Bought 2 Bank of China 1.85% CS Maturing on 1/29/20:
This ends my CDs purchases for now. The yields are just too low.
D. Bought at Auction 5 Treasury Bills (56 day) Maturing on 12/17/19:
IR = 1.697%
Auction Results:
I mentioned in a recent post that I would not be buying another treasury bill at such a low yield, but I forgot that I had already bought this one when I made that statement.
It may be possible to generate more income using substantially less money with a mix of other securities.
At current valuations and a possibility of a recession staring next year, I am unwilling to assume much risk just to increase income when relatively small declines in price can wipe out a year or more of income payments.
Instead, I will simply try to generate more income through short term trading that produces income taxable in the same manner as interest payments. So I am in a more hyper trading mode than usual.
3. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
One sector where I am picking up some yield is the Canadian reset equity preferred stocks which I have been purchasing with my idle CADs.
A. Bought 50 CPXPRE at C$17.63 (C$1 IB Commission):
Quote: Capital Power Corp. Cumulative Preferred Series 5
Closing Price Yesterday: CPX-PE.TO C$17.59 + C$0.03 +0.17%
D. Bought at Auction 5 Treasury Bills (56 day) Maturing on 12/17/19:
IR = 1.697%
I mentioned in a recent post that I would not be buying another treasury bill at such a low yield, but I forgot that I had already bought this one when I made that statement.
It may be possible to generate more income using substantially less money with a mix of other securities.
At current valuations and a possibility of a recession staring next year, I am unwilling to assume much risk just to increase income when relatively small declines in price can wipe out a year or more of income payments.
Instead, I will simply try to generate more income through short term trading that produces income taxable in the same manner as interest payments. So I am in a more hyper trading mode than usual.
3. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
One sector where I am picking up some yield is the Canadian reset equity preferred stocks which I have been purchasing with my idle CADs.
A. Bought 50 CPXPRE at C$17.63 (C$1 IB Commission):
Quote: Capital Power Corp. Cumulative Preferred Series 5
Closing Price Yesterday: CPX-PE.TO C$17.59 + C$0.03 +0.17%
Issuer: Capital Power Corp. (Canada: Toronto)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19): Capital Power reports solid third quarter 2019 results
Security: Equity Preferred Stock
Par Value $25
Dividends: Cumulative and Quarterly
Last Ex Dividend Date: 9/16/19
Coupon: 3.15% spread to the 5 year Canadian Bond
Resets: Every 5 Years until redeemed at issuer's option
Last Reset: April 2018
Reset Coupon: 5.238% paid on C$25 par value
Effective Dates for 5.238%: 6/30/18 + 5 years
Yield at C$17.63 = 7.43%
Prospectus Excerpt:
My last transaction in a CPX preferred stock was to sell 100 CPXPRA at C$16.72. Item # 2.A. Sold 100 CPXPRA at C$16.92 (1/15/18 Post)(profit snapshot = C$670)- Item # 3 Bought 100 CXPRA at C$10.2 Update For Exchange Traded Bonds And Preferred Stocks Basket Strategy As Of 4/14/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
CPX.PRA | Capital Power Corp. Pfd. Series 1 Overview | MarketWatch That one will reset in December 2020 at a 2.17% spread to the five year Canadian bond. I do not have a position at the moment.
I also have a prior round trip in CPXPRC:
South Gent's Comment Blog # 8: Sold 50 CPXPRC at C$19.08 (bought at C$14.54. Item # 2 That one reset in December 2018 at a 3.23% spread to the five year Canadian government bond.
CPX Preferred Stocks Trading Profit to Date = +C$895
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/19): Capital Power reports solid third quarter 2019 results
Security: Equity Preferred Stock
Par Value $25
Dividends: Cumulative and Quarterly
Last Ex Dividend Date: 9/16/19
Coupon: 3.15% spread to the 5 year Canadian Bond
Resets: Every 5 Years until redeemed at issuer's option
Last Reset: April 2018
Reset Coupon: 5.238% paid on C$25 par value
Yield at C$17.63 = 7.43%
Prospectus Excerpt:
My last transaction in a CPX preferred stock was to sell 100 CPXPRA at C$16.72. Item # 2.A. Sold 100 CPXPRA at C$16.92 (1/15/18 Post)(profit snapshot = C$670)- Item # 3 Bought 100 CXPRA at C$10.2 Update For Exchange Traded Bonds And Preferred Stocks Basket Strategy As Of 4/14/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
CPX.PRA | Capital Power Corp. Pfd. Series 1 Overview | MarketWatch That one will reset in December 2020 at a 2.17% spread to the five year Canadian bond. I do not have a position at the moment.
I also have a prior round trip in CPXPRC:
 |
| 2017 CPXPRC 50 shares +C$225 |
CPX Preferred Stocks Trading Profit to Date = +C$895
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
