Economy:
Fed eyes slower rate hikes as recession threat grows - MarketWatch
China's zero Covid policy, which is resulting in massive lockdowns, caused a negative reaction in the U.S. stock market yesterday. This policy is of course futile. The situation is made worse by China's irrational reliance on its internally developed vaccine which is not very effective. Russia and China would prefer seeing their citizens die rather than to admit the vaccines developed by Pfizer and Moderna are better. China’s zero-COVID strategy makes no sense and its homegrown vaccines are not ‘particularly effective,’ says Fauci - MarketWatch; Germany to China: Use Western vaccines, duh – POLITICO
++++
Trump and His Party:
Let the craziness begin. House Republican leader McCarthy threatens to impeach DHS Secretary Mayorkas over border | PBS NewsHour
When asked who was the most dangerous person in the world, Pompous Pompeo, a Republican Presidential hopeful, replied Randi Weingarten, and it was not even a close call for him. I try to stay informed about current events but who the heck is this desperado Randi Weingarten? Pompeo says head of teacher’s union is the ‘most dangerous person in the world’ | The Hill Republican candidates for President need to prove their bona fides as crazy people to the Trumpsters. So that comment makes sense when taken in that context. Pompeo is neither stupid nor ignorant but simply trying to appeal to those possessing both of those qualities.
VMI Black superintendent Retired Major General Cedric T. Wins faces attacks by White alumni - The Washington Post I would characterize the attacks as racist.
Colorado Shooting: Ex-Trump Lawyer Says Victims in ‘Eternal Damnation’ – Rolling Stone
Trump hosted Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes at Mar-a-Lago during Kanye West visit - YouTube; Nicholas J. Fuentes: Five Things to Know | ADL The Right Wing Watch has collected an array of video comments made by Fuentes: Right Wing Watch (@RightWingWatch) / Twitter His comments go far beyond holocaust denial. One dominant theme is an opposition to democracy which is a growing trend among republicans.
E. Jean Carroll sues Trump for battery and defamation as lookback window for adult sex abuse survivors' suits opens in New York
Herschel Walker still gets tax break on $3 million Texas home | The Texas Tribune
++++
Putin and His Country:
Russia Traffics in Ukrainian Children - The New York Times In addition to being a state sponsor of terrorism, Russia is a state sponsor of child trafficking.
European Parliament votes to declare Russia a 'state sponsor of terrorism' | Euronews (resolution denounces Russia's ""illegal, unprovoked and unjustified war of aggression" and blames Russia for committing a long list of war crimes including the murder of civilians, attacks on civilian infrastructure, torture and summary executions of civilians, abductions, rape, and forced civilian deportations to Russia) The U.S. needs to adopt the same declaration.
Evidence of savage war crimes committed by Russian soldiers in Kherson is being collected, including murdering old people, but the perpetrators will never be punished by the appropriate international tribunal and certainly not by Russia. After Russian retreat from Kherson, evidence of war crimes revealed - YouTube
Russian Official Warns Regime Will 'Chase' Zelensky 'All Over The World' The official, Andrey Lugovoy. said that Russia will kill Zelensky and members of his inner circle when it is able to do so. Lugovoy is wanted by British police for his alleged involvement in Alexander Litvinenko's murder. Litvinenko was poisoned with polonium-210 while residing in the U.K. Russia responsible for Alexander Litvinenko death, European court rules-The Guardian
A host of a Russian TV program said dropping a nuclear bomb on Kyiv was overdue. Russian pundits plot nuclear strike on Kyiv: ‘Maybe it’s time we stopped hesitating’-Express.co.uk
Russian Soldiers Are Freezing To Death In Eastern Ukraine
Putin's supporters call for the extermination of Ukraine
Timothy Snyder: The Making of Modern Ukraine. Class 15. Ukrainization, Famine, Terror: 1920s-1930s - YouTube Snyder is a well known and respected history professor at Yale.
Holodomor - Genocide of the Ukrainian Nation. Part I.-YouTube I recently came across the daily blogs by the Ukrainian professor Anna Danylchuk. In the one linked above, she discusses Holodomor. Anna from Ukraine - YouTube; Why Putin Is Afraid of This Woman - YouTube
It is imperative for citizens of western democracies, particularly those in Europe, to recognize that Russia and Russians will never change. As a matter of national security and to protect freedoms of their citizens, European countries can not rely on Russia for anything and that needs to be made permanent.
+++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
My stock allocation shifts has slowed down to barely visible.
Investment Grade Corporate Bonds, Treasuries, CDs = +$35,000
REIT Equity Preferred Stocks Purchases: +$303.04
Weighted Average Yield of REIT Preferred Stock Buys: 8.25%
Common Stocks: -$675.89
(consisting of $1,250.43 in sales proceeds minus +$574.54 in adds)
Common Stock Realized Gains: +$301.29
+++
1. Corporate Bonds: +$11,000
The Bank of Nova Scotia and Citigroup bonds were purchased through Fidelity's Corporate Notes program. Those bonds are sold directly by the issuer to Fidelity's customers at their $1,000 par value.
A. Bought 1 Citigroup 5.6% SU Maturing on 10/31/24:
Issuer: Citigroup Inc.
This is what the confirmation looks like for a bond offered directly to Fidelity's customers.
Note that Citigroup has an optional call right at par value on or after 10/31/23, so this may turn out to being a 1 year bond. I suspect that Citigroup had to pay up some on the yield for that optional call right.
YTM and Current Yield at 5.6%
Credit Ratings: A2/A
B. Bought 1 Bank of Nova Scotia 5.25% SU Maturing on 10/31/24:
I own the common stock.
C. Bought 1 GATX 4.35% SU Maturing on 2/15/24 at a 98.759 Total Cost:
I now own 2. Issuer: GATX Corp. (GATX)
GATX Analyst Estimates-MarketWatch
GATX SEC Filings
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/22 (included an impairment charge for exiting its business in Russia as almost all U.S. companies have done)
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost = 5.354%
Current Yield at TC = 4.4047%
I opened at the same day and time (10/28) two order books for this bond:
Vanguard: Best Price for 1 Bond at 99.026
Fidelity: Best Price for 1 Bond at 98.659
D. Bought 2 Evergy 2.45% SU Bonds Maturing on 9/16/24 at a Total Cost of 94.473:
I now own 10 bonds.
Issuer: Evergy Inc. (EVRG)
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/22
EVRG SEC FILINGS
EVRG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost = 5.603%
YTM includes a $110.54 profit when EVRG pays the principal amount at maturity.
Current Yield at TC = 2.5933%
E. Bought 2 Invesco Finance 4% SU Maturing on 1/30/24 at a Total Cost of 98.395:
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of INVESCO (IVZ) who guarantees the notes.
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Rating: A3 by Moodys
YTM at Total Cost: 5.348%
Current Yield at TC = 4.065%
F. Bought 2 Affiliated Managers 4.25% SU Maturing on 2/15/24 at a Total Cost of 99.094:
Issuer: Affiliated Managers Group Inc. (AMG)
AMG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/22
AMG SEC Filings
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings: A3/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost = 4.984%
Current Yield at TC = 4.2889%
G. Bought 2 MetLife 3.6% SU Maturing on 4/10/24 at a Total Cost of 97.857:
Purchased 11/2/22.
Issuer: MetLife Inc. (MET)
MET Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filings
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/22
I own the common stock.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings: A2/A-
YTM at Total Cost = 5.168%
Current Yield at TC = 3.6788%
2. Treasuries-Secondary Market Purchases: +$1,000
A. Bought 1 Treasury 3% Coupon Maturing on 6/30/24 at 97.3344:
Purchased 11/1/22YTM at Total Cost = 4.685%
Current Yield at TC = 3.082%
I now own 5 including 1 in a RI account.
3. Treasury Auction Purchases: +$15,000
A. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at 11/23/22 Auction:
Purchased at 99.691228 Day Bill
Matures on 12/27/22
Investment Rate: 4.038%
This is a punt. I had $10K in either a 1 or 2 month bill mature last week.
B. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at 11/28/22 Auction:
Mature on 6/1/23
Investment Rate (coupon equivalent) = 4.722%
4. CD Purchases-FDIC Insured: +$8,000
A. Bought 2 Wells Fargo 4.85% CDs Maturing on 11/29/24:
Interest Paid Monthly.
B. Bought 2 Live Oak Bank 5.1% CD Maturing on 11/25/26:
Interest Paid Monthly.
This is my first CD purchase with a 2026 maturity.
C. Bought 2 Merrick Bank 4.8% CDs Maturing on 6/14/24:
Interest paid monthly.
D. Bought 2 Wells Fargo 4.85% CDs Maturing on 12/5/24:
Interest paid monthly.
4. Small Ball Buys:
A. Added to BBDC in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $8.99:
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/22 (summary of investments starts at page 9; debt discussed starting at page 83; non-accrual investments acquired by virtue of BBDC's acquisition of Sierra Investments and MVCare described at page 104)
Impact of Changes in Interest Income/Interest Expense as of 9/30/22:
 |
| Page 123 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/22 |
Management: External
Last Discussed: Item # 4.L. Added to BBDC in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $8.81 (9/27/22 Post)(discussed second quarter report); Item # 2.K. Added 5 BBDC at $9.49 in Vanguard Taxable Account (7/13/22 Post)
Average cost per share this Account: $9.97 (30 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share
Dividend History-BBDC
Yield at AC = 9.63%
Next Ex Dividend: 12/6/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22): SEC Filing
NII per share = $.26
Weighted Average yield on performing debt: 8.6%
Net Asset Value per share: $11.28, down from $11.36 as of 12/31/21
"Subsequent to September 30, 2022, the Company placed its debt investment in Core Scientific Inc. (“Core Scientific”) on non-accrual status effective with the monthly payment due October 31, 2022." According to the 10-Q, that first lien loan had a $29.647M cost and was then valued at $29.619M (page 15). Bitcoin miner Core Scientific warns it might go bankrupt, stock plunges
"As of September 30, 2022, we had seven portfolio companies with investments on non-accrual, the fair value of which was $17.1 million, which comprised 0.7% of the total fair value of our portfolio, and the cost of which was $69.1 million, which comprised 2.8% of the total cost of our portfolio." (page 103, 10-Q)
Maximum Position All Accounts: 300 shares
Purchase Restriction: Purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain, either 5 or 10 share lots.
B. Added to SLGPRI in Schwab Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $19.8:
Quote: SLG-PI
Issuer: SL Green Realty Corp.- Office REIT
SLG SEC Filings
Last Discussed: Item # 3.J. Added to SLG.PRI - Bought 5 at $22.74; 5 at $22.55 (10/4/22 Post)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy, part of the Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Security: Prospectus
Placement in Capital Structure: Equity preferred stock, senior only to common stock.
Coupon: 6.5% paid on a $25 par value
Dividends: Cumulative and non-qualified (pass through entity)
Term: Potentially perpetual, issuer has the option to call at par value + accrued and unpaid dividends.
Average cost per share : $23.09 (30 shares)
Yield at AC = 7.0377%
Yield at $19.8 = 8.2071%
Next Ex Dividend: 12/19/22
Purchase Restriction: I will continue buying in 5 share lots until I reach 100 shares. Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain.
SLG.PRI Trading Profits to Date: $151.58
C. Added to RYLD - Bought 2 at $19.46:
Buy-write ETF using the Russell 2000 index.
Average cost per share this account: $21.63 (20+ shares)
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate.
Last Dividend at $.1986 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 11/21/22 (owned all as of)
Reinvestment: Yes as a means to randomly average down
The dividend yield at $19.46 was be over 12% using the last 12 monthly dividend payments and after excluding the short term capital gain distribution of $.3056 paid on 1/7/22.
2022 Dividends:
D. Bought 1 FDN at $124.5:
52 week range as of 11/22/22: $114.86 to $238.03
$124.5 is 47.7% below the 52 week high.
Expense Ratio = .51%
Number of Holdings: 40
Holdings with weightings over 1% as of 11/22/22:
FDN Realized Gains To Date: $242.97 (3 shares)
FDN – Performance –-Morningstar YTD total return through 11/22/22 was at -44.16%. The fund had a total return of 53.61% in 2013 and 52.55% in 2020, the two best years over the past 10. The 10 YTD annual average total return was 13.12% through 11/22 compared to 2.79% for five years. The wild swings and poor 5 year track record even after a 52.55% return in 2020 point to short term trades rather than a long term hold.
Some of the top holdings are arguably within reasonable valuation ranges. Almost all were in a clearly excessive valuation range when I sold at $244.75 and $247.59 during the 2021 4th quarter.
E. Added to NWL - Bought 5 at $13.05
Working my way up slowly to 100 shares.
Average cost per share = $16.68 (40+ shares)
The decline in price since my first purchase is primarily attributable to higher interest costs, a pullback in retailer orders, using funds to buy back stock rather than to pay down debt, and a profit margin squeeze caused by a rapid rise in input costs.
I would describe myself as a contrarian value stock investor who no longer sees a reason to have a significant stock allocation. The contrarian value tilt leads me to take small ball positions in beaten up stocks like NWL. I would be highly critical of a money manager who took a 10.3% ownership stake in NWL.
2022 Normalized E.P.S. lower to $1.56 from $1.7 from $1.79-$1.86.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 annually)
I am currently reinvesting the dividend as a means to randomly average down.
Yield at AC = 5.5156%
Last Ex Dividend: Today, 11/29/22 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22):
Comparisons are to the 2021 third quarter.
Core net sales declined 10.8% with only 1 out of 7 business units reporting an increase.
Took a $148M noncash impairment charge related to goodwill and intangible assets.
GAAP E.P.S. = $.07, down from $.44
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.53, down from $.54.
"At the end of the third quarter, Newell Brands had cash and cash equivalents of $636 million and net debt outstanding of $5.2 billion. Newell Brands exited the third quarter with a leverage ratio of 3.9x compared to 3.1x in the prior year period and 3.0x at the end of 2021."
F. Bought 1 GOOGL at $98.07; 1 at $91.91:
Average cost per share: $94.99 (2 shares)
52 week range as of 11/22/22: $83.44 - $151.55
Percentage Decline from 52 week high to $94.99: 37.3%
2023 Consensus E.P.S. as of 11/22/22: $5.30
P/E at $94.99 using E.P.S. of $5.3 = 17.92
I would attribute the price decline to a recent weakness in advertising income, negative foreign exchange due to the USD strength, accelerating expenses, and over valuation. The last earnings report was a major negative.
Dividend: None and none expected
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22):
GAAP Net Income per diluted share: $1.06, down from $1.4 in the 2021 third quarter (consensus at $1.25):
Revenues: $69.092B, up from $65.118B in the 2021 third quarterNegative currency impact shaved off 5%
Free cash flow: $16.077B
Cash and Marketable Securities: $136.649B
YouTube ad income declined 2%
Operating costs up 26%
Added 12,765 employees in the 3rd Q. and 37K over the past year.
Analyst Reports available to Schwab Customers:
Morningstar (10/26/22): 5 stars with a $160 fair value, reduced from $169, and a wide moat.
S & P (10/26/22): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $120 based on a 20.2 x. a 2024 E.P.S. estimate of $5.95.
Argus (10/26/22): Buy with a $150 PT, lowered 2023 E.P.S. to $5.82 from $6.15 and emphasizing the importance of the U.S. government's antitrust suit and other regulatory actions.
G. Bought 10 AHH at $11.94:
Management: Internal
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/22 (list of properties starts at page 26; debt is discussed at page 38; some variable rate debt is subject to interest rate swaps)
Completed in January 2022 a stock offering of 4.025M shares sold to underwriter at $14.25 per share. Prospectus
Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 per share. ($.76 per share annually)
Yield at $11.94: 6.3652%
Next Ex Dividend: 12/27/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/22):
Net income of $33.9M or $.38 per share which includes realized gains on property dispositions.
Normalized FFO = $25.8M or $.39 per share
AFFO per share = $.25
Net Income to FFO to Normalized FFO to AFFO:
 |
| In Thousands except for per share data |
I did not see an adjustment in the AFFO calculation for pretend revenues created by the straight line accounting convention. Property related capital expenditures, tenant improvements, lease incentives and leasing commissions are deducted from normalized FFO.
As of 9/30/22, AHH's "office, retail and multifamily stabilized operating property portfolios were 96.8%, 98.0% and 96.4% occupied, respectively."
Total construction contract backlog was $525.9 million at the end of the third quarter.
Rental rates on new apartment leases increased by almost 9%.
Active Developments:
Page 17, Supplemental (footnotes omitted in snapshot)
Thirty Party Construction Backlog = $525+M
Loans to Third Parties:
 |
| Page 18 Supplemental |
Interest income will partially offset interest expense:
9 months ending 9/30/22: Sourced from Page 34, 10-Q
Income Expense: $28.747M
Interest Income: $10.41M
Subsequent to 9/30/22:
AHH "made a $19.6 million preferred equity investment for the development of a multifamily property located in Gainesville, Georgia (Gainesville II). This project is located nearby our recently completed multifamily development project in Gainesville. The preferred equity investment has economic and other terms consistent with a note receivable, including a mandatory redemption feature, and it will be accounted for as a note receivable. Our investment bears interest at a rate of 14.0%, compounded annually, with a minimum preferred return of $5.9 million." (page 28, 10-Q)
On 11/4/22, the company acquired "a 124,000 square foot grocery-anchored shopping center in Virginia Beach, Virginia for a purchase price of $26.5 million in cash."
H. Bought 10 AHH.PRA at $20.3:
Issuer Discussed in Item # 4.G. above.
Security: Equity Preferred Stock
Prospectus (public offering price of $25 in June 2019)
Coupon: 6.75% paid on a $25 par value.
Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative
Yield at $20.3: 8.31%
Next Ex Dividend Date: 12/30/22
Stopper Clause: Yes, standard (see page S-17 Prospectus)
Maturity Date: None, potentially perpetual
Issuer Optional Call Date: At par value + accrued and unpaid dividends on or after 6/18/24
5. Small Ball Sells:
A. Pared FFBC in Fidelity Account - Sold 20+ at $25.5:
I sold my highest cost lots including 1 lot purchase with a quarterly dividend payment. I am no longer reinvesting the dividend.
Profit Snapshot: $59.93
Average cost per share before pare: $17.39
Average cost per share after pare: $15.56 (60+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 11/21/22 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 annually), last raised from $.22 effective for the 2019 third quarter payment.
Yield at AC = 5.91%
Next Ex Dividend: 11/30/22
Comparisons are to the 2021 third quarter.
GAAP E.P.S. = $.59, down from $.63
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.61, down from $.63
Non-GAAP Consensus E.P.S. = $.60
NIM = 3.98%, up from 3.32%
Adjusted Efficiency Ratio: 58.5%
NPL Ratio: .49%, down from .93%
NPA Ratio: .29%, down from .49%
Charge Off Ratio: .07%, down from .1%
Coverage Ratio = 261.11%
ROA = 1.35%
ROTE = 22.29%
Total Capital Ratio: 13.73%
Tangible Book Value per share: $9.48, down from $13.09. FFBC states in its supplemental filing that the TBV per share decline was driven by AOIC. Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (unrealized losses and gains reported in the equity section)
FFBC owns over $3B in fixed coupon securities which have declined in value this year.
 |
| Page 15 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/22 |
Loan Growth: 15.9% on an annualized basis
While net interest income spiked interest 28.4% to $155.112M compared to the 2021 third quarter, noninterest expense rose 26.3% to $125.68M and noninterest income was flat at $42.534M.
FFBC adjusts the $125.68M noninterest expense to $106.1M by deducting due a $17.2M tax credit writedown and $1.4M in severance costs. The adjusted increase in expenses was "driven by elevated incentive costs tied to Company performance and higher leasing business expenses during the period."
B. Eliminated FFBC in Vanguard Account - Sold 10 at $25.89:
See Item # 5.A. above.
Profit Snapshot: +$124.4
FFBC Realized Gains to Date: $2,156.91 (currently at #6 in the regional bank stock basket)
C. Pared SHEL in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 4 at $56.67:
100 Pence = 1 £
ADR Ratio: 1 for 2
Profit Snapshot: +$112.12
Average cost per share this account after pare: $24.6 (10 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 11/28/22 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.50
Yield at $24.6 = 8.13%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/9/22
Per share data needs to be adjusted for the 1 for 2 ADR ratio.
2023 Third Quarter Dividend = $.50
GAAP E.P.S. at $1.86
Adjusted E.P.S. at $2.6 with consensus at $2.73
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers)
Morningstar (10/31/22): 4 stars with a fair value estimate of $66 and no moat.
S&P (10/27/22): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $55, adjusted down from $60.
Argus (11/7/22): Buy with a $67 PT.
D. Eliminated CL - Sold 3 at $76.87:
My initial reaction when I started a small ball position in CL was that it was overvalued and it still is IMO.
I will consider restarting a position at up to 18 x. the following year's consensus E.P.S. which is generous IMO given the historical GAAP E.P.S. growth rate and the low dividend yield. For example, if I bought the stock on 11/21/22, I would use the 2023 consensus E.P.S. of $3.16 which would give me a maximum price of $56.88. The stock last traded near that PT in 2013 but did trade near $59 in late 2018.
Profit Snapshot: +$4.84
Dividend: Quarterly at $.47 per share
Yield at Sales Price of 76.87: 2.45%
Last Ex Dividend: 10/22/22
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 4.C. Eliminated CL in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $81.51 & Politics: BOTZ, BOX, CL, ETSY, EXEL, FPF, ILPT, IRM, NYCB, PHG, PYPL, PYS, SBRA, WIW, XOM(profit snapshot = $22.98)
"GAAP EPS declined 1% to $0.74; Base Business EPS* declined 9% to $0.74, both of which reflect a negative foreign exchange translation impact of $0.05"
Net Sales: $4.455B, up from $4.414B in the 2021 third quarter.
2022 Guidance:
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
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