Economy:
U.S. retail sales December 2020 (-.7% vs. consensus at flat and November sales were revised to -1.5% from -1.1%) This report and many others are not consistent with the Stock Jock blue sky scenario being in place now.
CPI rose .4% on a seasonally adjusted basis last month. The primary contributor was a surge in energy prices. Core CPI was only .1%. Consumer Price Index Summary On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, CPI was 1.4% last year with core CPI up 1.6%.
Consumer inflation surges in December on higher gas prices, CPI finds - MarketWatch
Fed's Esther George cautions that inflation could rise faster than expected
The word "could" means almost nothing. Inflation could fall too. I could run around the block, which is true provided I pace myself, running 10 yards and then resting for 1 minute, but I am not likely to try.
The unemployment rate is above 20% for the lowest-paid workers, Fed's Brainard says
New claims for unemployment insurance rose to 965,000 for the week ending 1/9/21. The consensus estimate was for 789K. The surge is due to the worsening pandemic.
Powell sees no interest rate hikes on the horizon as long as inflation stays low
Biden lays out $1.9 trillion Covid relief package with $1,400 stimulus checks If Biden tries to pass this bill outside of the budget reconciliation process (subjecting passage to the Senate's filibuster rule), he will likely fail. Joe Biden's Covid stimulus plan may face resistance in Congress
Several provision in the proposal would probably not qualify for the budget reconciliation process (e.g. increase in the minimum wage to $15). Stimulus and Covid-19 vaccines: What Biden and a Democratic Senate can do without Republican support - Vox (article published before Biden released a narrower plan that did not include corporate tax increases which will probably be included later this year IMO with an effective date of 1/1/22)
Up to 5 GOP senators may break with McConnell who will oppose this stimulus legislation, but 60 votes are necessary for cloture. What is the Senate filibuster, and what would it take to eliminate it? Even those republican will not support the $350 billion in emergency funding for state and local governments which is part of the proposed bill.
The only way most of Biden's stimulus bill will pass is through the Senate's budget reconciliation process and that may take months.
+++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
S & P 500 P/E Ratios as of 1/15/20:
TTM GAAP Earnings= 40.98
Non-GAAP Estimated Earnings next 12 months = 24.15
S & P Dividend Yield: 1.56%
Sourced: P/E & Yields
Shiller PE Ratio = 34.26 CAPE Ratio Definition
Shiller PE Ratio - 150 Year Chart | Longtermtrends
Market Cap to GDP Ratio - The Buffett Indicator - Updated Historical Chart | Longtermtrends = 1.886 (previous peak at 1.321 in April 2000)
Is the Market Still Overvalued? - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
Jeff Gundlach says stock market valuations are extraordinarily high, supported only by the Fed
With rates on the rise, investors fearing any signs of inflation
Holiday 2020 Target's same-store sales jump 17%, online sales double
Goldman Sachs says the S&P 500 will rise 14% in 2021. Here's the road map - MarketWatch
JPMorgan earnings Q4 2020 beat profit and revenue estimates
Value stocks are about to come out of their coma, says index fund powerhouse Vanguard - MarketWatch
+++
Covid Updates:
The pandemic remains "under control" in TrumpWorld:
 |
| As of 1/15/21 |
Timeline of Trump’s Coronavirus Responses; Saluting the Heroes of the Coronavirus Pandumbic | The Daily Show - YouTube
Covid-19 Infection Likely to Provide Immunity for at Least Five Months, Study Finds. What That Might Mean. | Barron's That is far from reassuring.
Japan Covid variant: How it compares to strains in UK, South Africa
The virus finds a way to survive through a Darwinian process where variants that make it more contagious and possibly more deadly become the dominant strain. Coronavirus variant could become dominant strain by March, CDC warns The abysmal and grossly incompetent vaccine rollout in the U.S. has made it more likely that more Covid variants will emerge and possibly one that is resistant to the vaccines.
Democratic lawmakers accuse maskless Republicans of spreading coronavirus during Capitol riot - The Washington Post; Opinion | Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-NJ): I got covid-19 because my Republican colleagues dismiss masks and facts - The Washington Post
After being evacuated to a small safe room after the Trump inspired riot, several GOP congressman (possibly all in the room) were offered masks to wear and refused of course to wear one. Video shows Republican members of Congress refuse to wear masks during Capitol insurrection The republican House members who defied House rules are as follows: Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Oklahoma Rep. Markwayne Mullin, Arizona Rep. Andy Biggs, Pennsylvania Rep. Scott Perry, Texas Rep. Michael Cloud and California Rep. Doug LaMalfa.
Perry and LaMalfa are vulnerable in 2022.
Ms. Greene is a QAnon True Believer who plans to file Articles of Impeachment against Joe Biden as soon as he becomes President. Georgia Republican plans to file articles of impeachment on President-elect Joe Biden | KUTV
The vaccine rollout has been a disaster.
++++
Dictator-Want-To-Be Demagogue Don and his Republican Enablers:
Don the Authoritarian, who remains the leader of America's anti-democracy party, was impeached again for what he called "totally appropriate" actions and words that led to an assault on the U.S. capitol. Donald Trump becomes first president to be impeached twice Demagogue Don was previously impeached for his "perfect" phone conversation with Ukraine's President.
10 republican House members decided to obey their oath of office, and joined all of the democrats to impeach Donald.
In Trump's America, what Donald did was far less significant than lying about having sex with Monica (a Clinton lie that was initially based on the misbegotten distinction that oral sex was not sex).
197 House republicans voted against impeachment. Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives - Vote Details
Trump Attacks Pence for Not 'Having the Courage' to Overturn the Election; Mike Pence Reached His Limit With Trump. It Wasn’t Pretty. - The New York Times ("Mr. Trump was enraged that Mr. Pence was refusing to try to overturn the election. In a series of meetings, the president had pressed relentlessly, alternately cajoling and browbeating him.") In Trump's America, the incumbent republican V-P can cancel certified election results whenever the democrat candidates for President and Vice-President win. Among non-republicans, that is referred to as an autocracy.
I thought it was B.S. when the minority leader in the House, Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), claimed that Donald took some responsibility for inciting the riot at the capitol. McCarthy says Trump accepted some responsibility for Capitol riot-POLITICO (1/11/2021).
Donald stated clearly the next day that his comments that led to his followers assaulting the citadel of American democracy were "totally appropriate". Trump defends riot remarks as 'totally appropriate' before House vote on 25th Amendment resolution (Trump: "Everybody to a 'T' thought it was totally appropriate" which was given in response to a question whether he accepted any responsibility)
Trump has never taken responsibility for any adverse consequences flowing from his actions or words, though he has frequently claimed undeserved credit for positive results and blamed anyone or anything for the bad consequences that he has caused.
McCarthy was one of the leaders of the anti-democracy effort to reject the voters choice for President. He voted to reject the certified results from Arizona and Pennsylvania after the republican inspired riot disrupted the proceeding. And, he signed onto the Texas Supreme Court petition requesting the Court to throw out the election results in 4 states with republican controlled legislatures, where Biden was the certified winner and to sanction the republican controlled legislatures in those states to choose the electors rather than the voters. U.S. Supreme Court throws out Texas lawsuit contesting election results | The Texas Tribune
Six hours of paralysis: Inside Trump's failure to act after a mob stormed the Capitol - The Washington Post-republished at MSN: Six hours of paralysis: Inside Trump’s failure to act after a mob stormed the Capitol
Armed DHS agents were on standby near Capitol riot but weren't deployed till too late
FBI report warned of 'war' at Capitol, contradicting claims there was no indication of looming violence - The Washington Post-republished at MSN: FBI report warned of ‘war’ at Capitol, contradicting claims there was no indication of looming violence Based on the number of warnings and the grossly inadequate security, it is reasonable to assume that some powerful people wanted to see a successful assault.
How Republicans Fanned the Flames Before US Capitol Building Riot - The New York Times ("Even after the tear gas cleared and the Capitol was secured, more than 135 House Republicans, including the party’s two top leaders, ultimately voted to throw out millions of lawfully cast votes, fulfilling the rioters’ demands and answering Mr. Trump’s call for Congress to subvert the election results in his favor."
Trump's voter fraud lies encouraged a riot. GOP allies are still giving them oxygen.
Almost all of those GOP House members could have joined the rioters and would still win reelection in 2022 IMO. List of Senate and House members objecting to election: All 147 Republican lawmakers challenging the count of electoral votes - Vox
The exceptions IMO include these republicans: Steve Chabot (Ohio); Jeff Van Drew (NJ); Mike Garcia (CA); Carlos Gimenez (FL); Jim Hagedorn (MN); Yvette Herrell (NM); Darrel Issa (CA); Chris Jacobs (NY); Nicole Malliotakis (NY); Burgess Owens (UT); Scott Perry (PA); and Elise Stefanik (NY). Those republicans are beatable in 2022.
Longtime Trump advisers connected to groups behind rally that led to Capitol attack - ABC News
PolitiFact | Fact-checking Trump's false claims about Pennsylvania's election Republican politicians echoed the false claims. PolitiFact | Fact-checking Hawley’s claim about Pennsylvania’s election law Hawley and hundreds of other other republican politicians became particularly incensed after Donald lost PA, claiming after the loss that a law passed by the republican dominated legislature in 2019 allowing no excuse mail-in voting was unconstitutional. No one challenged that bipartisan passed law until Trump lost and mail-in votes were cast in reliance thereon. Pennsylvania Supreme Court Rejects Republican Suit To Throw Out Mail-In Ballots NPR; Why Josh Hawley is getting blamed for the Capitol riots - The Washington Post
PolitiFact | Fact-checking false claims about Pennsylvania and the presidential election
Pennsylvania GOP lawmakers fostered false election allegations that fueled Capitol riot
Joint Chiefs call riot a ‘direct assault’ on the constitutional process, affirm Biden as next commander in chief; READ: Military Joint Chiefs condemn 'sedition and insurrection' at US Capitol
The republicans have succeeded in turning the U.S. capitol into an armed fortress for Biden's inauguration, a first in U.S. history.
Trump reportedly pressured elections investigator to overturn election, summarizing this WP article: Trump pressured a Georgia elections investigator in call legal experts say could amount to obstruction - The Washington Post This particular crime was committed more than a week before Trump demanded that Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger “find” votes to "shift the count in his favor and made vague threats of criminal prosecution if refused".
Trump says he won't attend Biden's inauguration After Nixon resigned, he did not attend the swearing in ceremony for Gerald Fold. No defeated candidate has skipped the inauguration of his successor since Andrew Johnson in 1868.
Incitement to Riot? What Trump Told Supporters Before Mob Stormed Capitol - The New York Times There is enough there for impeachment.
Confederate Battle Flag an Unnerving Sight in Capitol-The New York Times The confederate battle flag made its way deeper into the capitol on 1/6/2011 than he did during the Civil War.
Opinion | How Trumpism May Endure-The New York Times The historical analogy is to Lost Cause mythology that gained preeminence in the south after the Civil War which, among other lasting impacts, led to confederate monuments being placed throughout the south and military bases being named after confederate generals. Lost Cause of the Confederacy - Wikipedia
Timothy Snyder - "On Tyranny", Trump & How Abandoning Facts Destroys Democracy | The Daily Show - YouTube Snyder is a professor of history at Yale.
Pro-Trump dark money groups organized the rally that led to deadly Capitol Hill riot
Two men seen carrying restraints during Capitol riot charged with federal crimes Why were the Trumpsters carrying zip ties? The answer is obvious notwithstanding the claim of the Trumpster acting federal prosecutor for D.C. Michael Sherwin who needs to be removed from that post on 1/20/21. Federal official walks back allegation rioters intended to 'capture and assassinate' Sherwin claimed that there was no direct evidence of intent.
One of those arrested who were photographed carrying zip ties was Larry Brock of Texas, a retired colonel who was dressed in tactical gear. Brock claims that he was invited into the capitol and that he found the zip ties lying on the floor. He was merely in the process of taking those restraints to the police when someone took his picture.
Robert Keith Packer: Man in 'Camp Auschwitz' sweatshirt during Capitol riot identified (underneath "Camp Auschwitz" the sweatshirt contained the words "Works Bring Freedom", a rough translation of the message on that concentration camp's gates)
How the rioters who stormed the Capitol came dangerously close to Pence - The Washington Post; republished at MSN: How the rioters who stormed the Capitol came dangerously close to Pence The Trumpsters wanted to hang Pence since he refused to throw out the election results, which he had no power to do, and then elect himself and Donald for another 4 years as the Vice-President and President respectively.
We looked for antifa at the Capitol0-we couldn’t find any-The Washington Post
The 65 days that led to chaos at the Capitol - BBC News
Dominion sues Trump lawyer Sidney Powell for defamation, seeks $1.3 billion The complaint is 124 pages long. Complaint.pdf; Did a Conservative News Site Admit Its Voter-Fraud Claims Were False?- Yes
GOP Sen. Pat Toomey calls on Trump to resign Senator Toomey has developed a spine since he announced that he would not run for reelection in 2022. I suspect that congressman Conor Lamb (D-PA), a moderate, will run in that 2022 senate race. Conor Lamb of Pa. decries Republican ‘lies,’ leading to heated exchange during electoral vote certification
FBI, NYPD told Capitol Police about possibility of violence before riot, senior officials say The question which needs to be answered is why did the Capital Police and other government agencies fail to heed the warnings of a clear and present danger to member of Congress. Rioters Taking Over The Capitol Planned It Online
Note these warnings from an Israeli analyst published on 12/21/20:
Arieh Kovler (@ariehkovler) / Twitter
Two minutes inside the mob: A CNN reporter's view of the riot Washington Post Journalists Say They Were Arrest
2 Capitol Police officers suspended and 10-15 more under investigation for alleged roles in riot Those white male officers would have taken a different approach IMO if the those trying to break into the capitol had brown or black skins.
Chad Wolf, Homeland Security secretary, quits after pro-Trump Capitol riot Wolf was just another miserable failure. He will be remembered for (1) children in cages; (2) a total failure to protect the capitol from the Trumpster riot; and (3) acting illegally as the Homeland Security security. Federal judge rules acting DHS head Chad Wolf unlawfully appointed, invalidates DACA suspension; Trump admin considering Chad Wolf, an author of family separation policy, for DHS chief
Opinion | Trump Is the Republican Party’s Past and Its Future - The New York Times I would agree that Donald is not an aberration, but the heart and soul of the GOP. His approval rating among republicans only sank 6 points to 75% after he incited an assault on the nation's capitol. Trump’s Popularity Declines Among Republicans After Brutal Week
Republicans continue to defy metal detectors as Capitol security ramps up The republicans are being led by the recently elected QAnon follower Lauren Boebert (R-CO) who was probably carrying her handgun in her purse as she entered the House chamber. Boebert Clashes With Capitol Police After Setting Off Metal Detectors | Colorado Public Radio
I am expecting that representative Mo Brooks (R-Al) will be censored by the House for remarks that he made on 1/6/2021. Malinowski_Censuring Brooks Resolution (contains statements made by Brooks) The censure resolution may receive bipartisan support. I suspect that Brooks will also be investigated for possible criminal prosecution.
Kevin Seefried, who carried Confederate flag into the Capitol, arrested
Capitol riot: Ex-firefighter Robert Sanford charged for assaulting police
Police arrest Peter Stager, the man they say beat officer with American flag during Capitol riot | TheHill; Man who beat police officer says 'death is the only remedy' - CNN Video
Texas realtor Jennifer Ryan who took private jet is charged in Capitol riot
GOP lawmakers gave tours to Trump supporters before riot, Capitol police probing claims
Cindy McCain may be censured by Arizona Republicans. It's a crock; Trump blows up the Arizona GOP on his way out - POLITICO The GOP is not salvageable as a conservative party.
It needs to be remembered IMO that 74M Americans voted to give Donald another 4 years in office. While he lost by over 7M votes nationwide, he was denied a second term by only 77,000 votes in 4 states. And it was obvious IMO that Donald was a lying, sociopathic, authoritarian demagogue.
Trump knew before he even announced his candidacy that he could make 30,000+ false statements during a 4 year term and would still be viewed as honest by the vast majority of republicans. Spreading baseless conspiracy theories was just one manipulation technique that he used on those who can not be persuaded by accurate information.
His candidacy was launched by becoming the foremost spreader of the Obama birther conspiracy that probably contributed significantly to becoming the republican nominee in 2016.
And that was only his first major propagation of baseless conspiracy theories. List of conspiracy theories promoted by Donald Trump - Wikipedia
Trump has provided a blueprint for how future republican candidates for President can win; and Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz have clearly received that message loud and clear.
++++++
1. Small Ball:
A. Started FCBP-Bought 10 at $17:
Quote: First Choice Bancorp
Closing Price 1/15: FCBP $19.40 -$0.47 -2.37%
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
FCBP is a bank holding company that owns First Choice Bank headquarter in Cerritos, CA. "First Choice Bank conducts business through nine full-service branches and two loan production offices located in Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego Counties. "
This is my first buy.
FCBP Average Analyst E.P.S. Estimates-MarketWatch (1 analyst, as of 1/9/21)
2021 $2.37
2022 $2.5
3 Year Financials:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share
First Choice Bancorp- Dividends
The dividend was last raised to $.25 from $.2 effective for the 2019 4th quarter payment.
Yield at $17: 5.88%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/11/20
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
"net income of $7.9 million for the third quarter of 2020, or $0.67 per diluted share, compared to net income of $5.7 million, or $0.49 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2020."
The performance numbers were good in the 3rd quarter (ROA, ROE, efficiency ratio, NIM):
Charge offs: $88K or .02% of average loans
Coverage Ratio: 144.2%
The NPL ratio increased to .69% primarily due to completed construction loans "on two high quality ocean view homes in Malibu, California with recent appraisals indicating less than 50% Loan-to-Appraised Value." So no charge off would be anticipated.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain.
B. Started GSK in Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $36.36; 5 at $36.13:
Quotes:
USD ADR: GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR
British Pence Ordinary: GlaxoSmithKline PLC (U.K.: London
Closing Price 1/15: GSK $38.47 +$0.31 +0.81%
I have not owned this stock for a long time. I decided to buy using the small ball "purchase program" risk mitigation strategy based on this stocks combination of yield with a P/E well below market multiples.
I mentioned this purchase in a 1/7/21 comment.
Investment Categories: Contrarian Value/Bond Substitute
2020 3rd Quarter Drug and Vaccine Revenues:
GSK has a significant portfolio of consumer products as part of its joint venture with Pfizer. Our consumer healthcare products | GSK (28+% of revenues in the 2020 third quarter)
GSK completes transaction with Pfizer to form new world-leading Consumer Healthcare Joint Venture Pfizer has a 32% stake. Pfizer Announces Closing of Joint Venture With GlaxoSmithKline to Create a Premier Global Consumer Healthcare Company GSK and PFE will likely spin off this joint venture into a separately traded public company, probably in 2022. Before forming the JV with Pfizer, GSK acquired the NVS's consumer products. GSK reaches agreement with Novartis to acquire full ownership of Consumer Healthcare Business
IMO, GSK would be better off buying PFE out, but that is a minority opinion.
2019 Annual Report SEC Form 20-F for a foreign corporation
GlaxoSmithKline plc Profile | Reuters
GSK | GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (as of 1/9/21, the average E.P.S. for 2021 was $3.05 and $3.28 for 2022)
Dividend: Quarterly
The U.K. does not currently collect a dividend tax. The dividend amount will depend on the GBP/USD conversion amount which will cause currency related fluctuation in the amount and consequently the yield
The U.K. share quarterly rate has remained constant with 3 payments of 19 pence and 1 payment of 23 pence. Dividend calculator (USD) | GSK This is not a dividend growth stock unless the U.S. dividend yield grows throw the GBP increasing in value against the USD.
1 ADR = 2 ordinary GBP priced shares
At the current dividend rates, the owner of the ordinary shares priced in British Pence would receive an annual dividend of 80 pence.
The U.S. priced ADR own would receive £1.6 annually (100 pence = 1£)
GBP / USD Currency Chart. British Pound to US Dollar Rates
Average Cost this account: $36.24
Yield Using TTM USD Payments of US$2.03 at current AC = 5.6%
Last Earnings Report: GSK delivers resilient performance, strong commercial execution and further strategic progress in Q3 or SEC Filed Press Release
E.P.S. 25p
Adjusted E.P.S. .35p
GSK had some restructuring charges during the quarter which were added back in the adjusted E.P.S. calculation.
Glaxo (GSK) Beats Earnings Estimates in Q3, Revenues Miss | Nasdaq
GSK Says Q3 Earnings Fall 14.4% Amid COVID-19 Disruption | Business News | US News
Some Recent News:
FDA Approves Trelegy Ellipta as the First Once-Daily Single Inhaler Triple Therapy for the Treatment of Both Asthma and COPD in the US (this is a new indication; Innoviva Inc. (INVA) participates)
FDA approves Nucala as the first and only biologic treatment for Hypereosinophilic Syndrome (HES)(third indication)
Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Argus (12/11/20): Buy with a $45 PT, reduced from $50
Morningstar (11/23/20): 4 stars with a FV of $45
S & P (11/30/20): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $39
One major problem is that GSK's blockbuster Advair drug is off patent and is consequently facing pricing pressure from generics.
Another problem is that GSK and SNY, two of the largest vaccine product companies, struck out on their first attempt at a Covid vaccine. Sanofi and GSK announce a delay in their adjuvanted recombinant protein-based COVID-19 vaccine programme to improve immune response in the elderly When and if GSK develops a Covid vaccine that can be approved, the pandemic may be just a bad memory.
C. Started GSK in Fidelity Account-Bought 5 at $36.43:
See Item #1.B. above.
D. Started CC in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $26.6; 5 at $26.14; 5 at $25.4; 5 at $24.8; 5 at $24.3 and Sold 22 Vanguard Taxable Account at $28.5:
Purchases Fidelity Account (still own):
Quote: Chemours Co. - Industrial and Speciality Chemicals
Closing Price 1/15: CC $27.08 -$0.17 -0.62%
Investment Categories: Speculative Contrarian Value/Bond Substitute
Brands and Products | The Chemours Company
The company separated from Dupont in 2015.
2019 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 11 and ends at page 25; debt summary starts at page F-36)
S & P Debt Rating: B; Bonds Detail for 6.625% SU maturing in 2022
Profit Snapshot 22 Shares = +$45.79
I discussed selling shares in a 1/7/20 comment. Chemours is potentially exposed to significant costs related to the PFAS chemical lawsuits and remediation. (see pages 23-27 last filed 10-Q; other litigation risk issues are discussed therein as well)
Average Cost Per Share Fidelity account: $25.46
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share
Yield at AC = 3.93%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/13/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): SEC Filed Press Release
Debt is heavy. "As of September 30, 2020, consolidated gross debt was $4.1 billion. Debt, net of $956 million cash, was $3.2 billion, resulting in a net leverage ratio of approximately 3.7 times on a trailing twelve-month Adjusted EBITDA basis. Total liquidity was $1.7 billion, comprised of $956 million of cash and $702 million of revolving credit facility capacity."
The last debt offering was €450M of SU notes maturing in 2026. Prospectus
Broker Reports (available to Schwab Customers)
Argus (12/8/20): Hold
S & P (12/18/20): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $24
I do not have access to these reports:
Goldman Sachs (12/14/20): Increases PT to $29 from $26, maintains neutral rating.
Morgan Stanley (12/14/20): Increases PT to $28 from $23, keeps neutral rating.
RBC (12/11/20): Increases PT to $27 from $23, maintains sector perform rating
UBS (12/10/20): Increases PT to $24 from $22, maintains neutral rating
Barclays (12/4/20): Increases PT to $28 from $26 while downgrading the stock to equal weight from overweight.
Maximum Position: 50 shares (too many risks for more)
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must lower my average cost per share.
E. Added 3 BMY at $61.3-Schwab Taxable:
Quote: Bristol Myers Squibb Co.
Closing Price 1/15: BMY $66.54 +$0.52 +0.79%
BMY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Categories: Contrarian Value/Bond Substitute
Average Cost Per Share this Account: $61.7
Dividend: Quarterly at $.49 per share, recently raised from $.45
Yield at AC this account: 3.18%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/31/20
Recent News Since Last Discussion: Bristol Myers Squibb Announces $2 Billion Incremental Share Repurchase Authorization (1/11/21)
Last Discussions:
Item #3.M. Added to BMY in Fidelity Taxable- Bought 2 at $61.05 (1/1/21 Post)
I have nothing further to add to those recent discussions.
F. Added 1 TRP at $40.88; 2 at $40.2 :
Quotes:
USD: TC Energy Corp. (TRP)-an energy infrastructure company based in Canada.
CAD: TC Energy Corp. (Canada: Toronto)
Closing Price 1/15: TRP $44.41 +$0.13 +0.29%
Investment Categories: Contrarian Value/ Dividend Growth/ Bond Substitute
Last Discussed: Item # 3.B. Added to TRP-Bought 1 at $49.92; 1 at $39.59; 1 at $39 (11/7/20 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. TC Energy reports robust third quarter financial results
Average Cost this account : $44.25 (20+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.81 per share (C$3.24 annually)
TRP is the USD priced shares traded on the NYSE.
Dividends will be paid in CADs and converted into USDs for TRP owners.
Canada will withhold a 15% tax when TRP is owned in a U.S. citizens taxable account.
When TRP is owned in a U.S. citizens retirement account, the current tax treaty between Canada and the U.S. exempts dividend payments from that 15% tax. This exemption does not apply to Canadian companies that are pass through entities. I own TRP in two Roth IRA accounts.
Last Ex Dividend: 12/30/20
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes.
Purchase Restriction: Each purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain.
Maximum Position: 30 shares
I have a larger position in TRP reset equity preferred stocks priced in CADs and traded in Toronto.
H. Eliminated UCBI Fidelity Taxable-Sold 14+ at $28.59:
Quote: United Community Banks
Profit Snapshot: +$156.37
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
I. Eliminated UCBI Schwab Taxable-Sold 4+ at $28.72:
Profit Snapshot: +$49.27
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
J. Started TELNY-Bought 10 at $16.71:
Company Website: Investors - Telenor Group
Investment Category: Bond Substitute
Dividends: Semi-annually, paid in Norwegian Krone
 |
| 2020 Dividends |
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): Continued strong performance- digitalisation and modernisation drive EBITDA growth - Telenor Group
K. Pared DPG in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $11.82 (highest cost lot):
Quote: Duff & Phelps Utility & Infrastructure Fund
Profit Snapshot: $4.31 (12/24 sell only)
New Average Cost Per Share this Account: $10.36
Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 per share (supported by ROC)
I sold this lot after the ex dividend date.
Yield at $10.36: 13.51%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/14/20
There was some strange action in DPG on 12/24 with the price rising $.74 or 6.55% with volume at 1.104+M shares compared to the average 150,267. I mentioned this activity in a 12/26/20 comment.
This fund's exposure to energy infrastructure stocks has been a major detractor from performance since 2014. Those stocks have started to move up recently.
In Item # 3 to my last post, I mentioned that my largest DPG position is in my Schwab account where I own 390+ shares which includes the 10+ shares bought with the 2020 4th quarter dividend of $129.46.
L. Restarted CET-Bought 5 at $32.03:
Quote: Central Securities Corp - A CEF
Closing Price 1/15: CET $32.91 -$0.43 -1.29%
Sponsor's website: Central Securities Corporation
I mentioned this purchase in a 12/28/20 comment.
My last purchase was in 2016. Item # 1 Bought 100 CET at $19.68- Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 6/15/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
CET's largest investment is in a private company called Plymouth Rock.
In 2015, CET sold 6,000 shares to Plymouth Rock, reducing its position to 28,424 shares. Annual Report at page 6 CET has a 22.4% ownership position.
That position was valued at $206.074M as of 9/30/20. The shares were acquired in 1982 at a cost of $710,000. CET received from Plymouth Rock $14,163,111 in dividends for the first nine months of 2020. Last Page of this SEC Filing
Plymouth Rock 2019 Annual Report:
Recent Dividend History:
Data as of 1/8/21:
CET reports NAV per share only on a weekly basis.
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $40.93
Closing Market Price: $33.22
Discount: -18.84%
Average 3 Year Discount: 17.10%
Sourced: CET CEF Connect
(CET) at Morningstar (rated at 3 stars)
Round-Trip Trading Snapshots: +$346.02
M. Restarted GAM-Bought 5 at $37.25; 5 at $36.95:
Closing Price 1/15: GAM $37.60 -$0.26 -0.69%
Average Cost = $37.1
(GAM) at Morningstar (rated 2 stars)
Sponsor's Website: General American Investors
Leveraged: Yes through preferred stock
General American Investors Co. Inc. 5.95% Cumulative Preferred Series B (GAMPRB); Prospectus
Personally, I believe the common share owners would be better off with GAM redeeming this preferred stock at par value now and issuing a similar dollar amount in long term senior unsecured notes or just go without any leverage.
GAM has an ongoing preferred stock repurchase program but the price has to sink below the $25 par value to implement. General American Investors Company Announces: Actions Taken by the Board of Directors That is not likely to happen anytime soon.
SEC Filing-Investments as of 9/30/20 (cost= $670.7+M; value at $1.202+B as of 9/30/20)
Last SEC Filed Report (semi-annual period ending 6/30/20)
Top Ten Holdings as of 9/30/20 (includes Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nestle, TJX and Unilever.
Dividends: Annually. General American Investors or General American Investors, Inc. Common Stock (GAM) Dividend History | Nasdaq
The last dividend was $2.5 per share with $2.27 of that amount sourced from long term capital gains.
Data Date of 1/5/21 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $43.84
Closing Market Price: $36.93
Discount: -15.76%
Average 3 Year Discount: -15.96
Sourced: GAM-CEF Connect (Click Pricing Information tab)
Previous Discussions: Item # 2.B.Eliminated GAM-Sold 109+ at $32.74 (2/15/17 Post)(profit snapshot = +$88.53. I reinvested the year end distribution of $320.29 to buy 9.8167 shares which were sold at a $13.41. profit)-Item # 1 Bought 100 GAM at $31.9-Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 7/18/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Sold 107+ GAM at $34.44 (10/19/13 Post)(profit snapshot=$518.31/Total Return=$717.12))-Item # 3 Bought 100 of the Stock CEF $29.52 (9/20/2012 Post)
So far I have been content in selling the shares at a profit after collecting the year end distribution.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain.
GAM Trading Profits to Date: $606.84
N. Eliminated NORW-Sold 120+ at $12.61:
Profit Snapshot: $52.07
This was another poor performer that was dumped for a small profit. The robust stock rally has provided me with an opportunity to clean up my portfolio through selling positions that had been under water.
My allocation to Norway will be through individual stock purchases with the heaviest weighting in Orkla, currently at 200 shares. In other words, I will try to beat the performance of this stock ETF with individual stock selections. I discussed a new Norway based stock purchase in Item 1.J. above.
Sponsor's website: MSCI Norway ETF
Expense Ratio: .5%
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 5.C. Bought 5 NORW at $10.84 (8/28/19 Post)
O. Added to AKBA-Bought 5 at $2.8:
Quote: Akebia Therapeutics Inc.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.I. Bought 10 AKBA at $3.18; 5 at $3; 5 at $2.9 (12/25/20 Post I have nothing to add to that recent discussion. I am just averaging down here.
Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
P. Added 5 GLUU at $8.7; 5 at $8.55:
I discussed this stock in my last post. Item # 1.F. Started GLUU as a Lotto (1/9/21 Post)
Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
GLUU is discussed in the 1/11/21 article: My Favorite Video Game Stocks for 2021 | The Motley Fool
Average Cost per share = $9.15 (45 shares)
Highest Cost Lot at $9.6 (10 shares, as part of risk mitigation, will be sold when and if the price exceeds $10)
Q. Pared EAF-Sold 25 at $11.8:
Quote: GrafTech International Ltd.
Closing Price 1/15/20: EAF $10.51 -$1.10 -9.47%
Profit Snapshot: +$1.99
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 3.I. Eliminated EAF in Fidelity taxable account-Sold 46+ at $9.94 (1/1/21 Post)
New average cost per share: $10.29 (53+ shares)
I mentioned selling my second highest cost lot in the last post: Item # 1.F. Pared EAF-Sold 25 at $11.43 (second highest cost lot) (1/9/21 Post)
EAF Trading Profits to Date: $259.45 ($257.46 prior sells)
This stock was trading at less than $7 in early November 2020. EAF Historical Prices The rally since then is linked to renewed Stock Jock optimism about a robust worldwide economic recovery which remains an open question IMO. This has been a hard stock to profitably trade. It has been a bungee jumper over the past year:
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| 1 Year as of 1/13/2021 Close |
Recent Analyst Report: On 1/8/2011, RBC raised its PT to $11 from $7 and maintained its sector perform rating. I do not have access to that report but would simply emphasize that the analyst raised the PT to $11 after the stock went over $11.
The most noteworthy cash item was the $4K received from 4 Kroger bonds that matured yesterday. Reinvesting those proceeds into another 1K par value corporate bond is not even an option for me given the abnormally low rates for investment grade issues.
I also own the Office Properties common stock (just 10+ shares with an AC of $19.33) and 15 shares of its exchange traded bond OPINI:
