Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Sold 100 of APF at 17.32/Added 100 to the Stock CEF JLA @ 12.67/RB Bought as LT 30 NPBC @ 7.83/Sold 100 of the Bond CEF IGI @ 20.25/Added 50 FNFG at 13.54

1. RB Buys 30 NPBC as a LT at $7.83 on Friday (LOTTERY TICKET strategy)(see Disclaimer):  The agreement between the LB and the RB on Lottery Tickets is that the RB can buy whatever it wants provided the LB will only have to examine the company one time.  The NPBC shares will have to be an exception, which LB has graciously acknowledged, since Headknocker owns 150 shares of a trust preferred originating from National Penn: Bought 50 of the TP NPBCO at $24.93  Bought 100 NPBCO at 24.91. The amount devoted to that TP is sufficient to require monitoring of the bank for as long as those shares are in the portfolio.  Once the TP position is sold, LB will ignore this banking institution for several years, and no further discussion will be made in this blog,  in full compliance with the recent compromise with that Nit Wit idiot RB. 

2. Added 50 FNFG at 13.54 on Thursday (Regional Bank Stocks' basket strategy)(see Disclaimer): I discussed the 1st quarter earnings report from First Niagara in yesterday's post. I have nothing to add to that discussion.

All but 50 of my shares are owned in a satellite taxable account, where I am reinvesting the dividend.  I also own 50 shares in the main taxable account, where I am taking cash distributions.  I will sell those 50 shares at some point, preferably for a long term capital gain larger than $100:   

FNFG AVG Cost =$11.91 Per Share

I own over 200 shares in the other account.  

First Niagara Financial Group closed at $14.01 yesterday and has a dividend yield of around 4.57%, assuming a total cost of $14 per share.     

3. SOLD 100 of 350 of the Bond CEF IGI at $20.25 on Thursday (see Disclaimer): I have bought and sold this bond CEF in my current hyper active trading for bond funds. Some of the trades are discussed in these posts: Added 100 of the CEF IGI at 19.78 (February 2010) Bought 100 CEF IGI at $19.89 in IRA (February 2010) Sold 100 IGI at 21.26 In IRA (June 2010-selling at over NAV at that time) Bought 50 IGI at 20.05 in the Roth & 100 @ 19.85 in a Taxable Account (NOV 2010) Sold:100 IGI @ 20.75 (Nov 2010).

I still own 250 shares and will buy the 100 shares sold last Thursday back at $19.50 or less.   The shares sold were my highest cost shares in my main taxable account. By waiting to buy at a lower price, I will lower my average cost per share some after collecting a few monthly dividends and booking some profits.  The profit generated by this last sale was minuscule. My goal is just to avoid losing money on the shares while capturing the dividend without any diminution from losses in the shares.  That is a modest goal. So far, I have netted realized gains on the shares of +233.74. If that number remains green in the coming years, then I would have successfully captured the dividends without diluting that return with losses on the shares. I will be pleased with that modest result.  I would be more than satisfied with a few hundred in profits on the shares plus the dividends. 

I like this bond CEF for several reasons that will likely keep me interested in it until the termination date.   The fund pays monthly dividends and is selling at a discount to net asset value.  Importantly, the fund liquidates in 2024.  The term date reduces my interest rate risk some compared to a bond fund that makes no promise to liquidate.  The fund also invests mostly in investment grade corporation bonds.  Lastly, the effective duration of the bonds owned by the fund is 6.38 years with a weighted average term of 10.69 years.  IGI Portfolio Characteristics   I view those statistics as relevant in relation to the term liquidation date when evaluating interest rate risk of a bond fund. 

This is a link to the current holdings of IGI:  IGI Holdings 


4. Added 100 JLA at 12.67 on Thursday (see disclaimer):  I recently bought 100 shares of this stock CEF  at $12.84.  For those shares, I recently received the quarterly dividend of $.3127 per share so I am close to break-even so far.  The yield at a total close of $12.67 would be about 9.87%.  I will just copy the relevant part of my prior discussion on this CEF: 

"The Nuveen Equity Premium Advantage Fund (JLA) is a stock closed end fund (JLA) that seeks to "replicate price movements of a 50%/50% combination of the S & P 500 Stock Index and the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index, respectively" As of 1/26/2011, the day of my purchase, this CEF had a net asset value of $13.82 per share and closed that day at a -7.09 discount to its NAV. The fund has a managed distribution policy, and currently pays a quarterly dividend of .317 per share. . .   

Due to Near Depression, the fund was not able to support this dividend with capital gains and consequently part of the dividend distributions in 2009 and 2010 were classified as returns of capital.   Morningstar rates the fund 3 stars.  The Morningstar site also now contains information about return of capital distributions for the past three years, and I regularly consult it whenever I am considering a CEF purchase. Given what happened in the Dark Period, I am not going to place much negative weight on the fact that stock CEFs supported too generous dividends by returning some of their investor's capital. 

This is a link to the last filed  Form N-Q which lists the funds holdings as of 9/30/2010. As shown in that report, the fund sells call options on the S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in an effort to reduce volatility.  The fund also reports in that filing that the value of its stock investments had risen to $367,949,430 with a cost basis of 293,405,451.  That suggests that the fund could support the 2011 dividend with capital gains.  It will never be able to support the dividend at its current level without those gains.    

The last shareholder report for the six month period ending in June 2010 can be found at  www.sec.gov."

This fund has a large weighting in Apple.   JLA I suspect that percentage will decrease some when the fund next discloses its holdings to the re-weighting of Apple in the Nasdaq index: NDXSpecialRebalancePresentation.pdf

I will likely manage my average cost by selling the first lot when and if the price exceeds $13.5.

JLA closed yesterday at $12.65 and had a net asset value per share of $13.91, creating at that time a discount to net asset value of -9.06 based on those numbers. CEFA 

5. Sold 100 of the Stock CEF APF at 17.32 Last Thursday-4/21 (see Disclaimer):  The closed end fund APF invests in stocks from the Asia-Pacific region.  I waited until the shares turned into a long term capital gain before selling the last 100 shares owned by me.  This sale was part of my ongoing paring of my stock allocation, while increasing my exposure to LTs.  Since LTs have a maximum purchase limit of $300, plus any prior profits + distributions from the LT purchase, the net effect is to reduce my stock allocation. Most of the stock allocation has been in low yielding stock ETFs and CEFs.  The 100 APF shares were bought   Added 100 of APF at 15.64  The total realized long term gain on the 200 share of APF, held until the gains turned into LT capital gains, was $292.86:


I owned 200 shares at the time of the annual dividend and received $8.16.

APF closed at $17.23 yesterday and had a net asset value per share of $19.39, creating as of yesterday's close a -11.14% discount to NAV.  CEFA

I am running way behind in discussing my trades. 

Monday, April 25, 2011

Bought 50 DKF at $25.52/JNJ OCFC FNLC FNFG UNB HCBK/SIVB-SIVBO/ADDED 30 GE at 19.95 with Cash Flow/Snapshot of GE and Intel Purchases with Cash Flow

SVB Fianancial (SIVB), owner of the Silicon Valley Bank, reported earnings of 33 million for the 1st quarter, or 76 cents per share, up from 41 cents per share in the year ago quarter. The consensus estimate was 48 cents. While I do not own the common shares, I still own 50 shares of a trust preferred stock, SIVBO, which was issued by a Delaware Trust controlled by SIVB that owns a junior SVB bond. www.sec.gov  The ownership of a bond, particularly a junior one, will cause me to examine periodically the credit worthiness of the issuer.  I am not currently concerned about SIVB. I recently sold 100 shares of SIVBO at a good percentage gain in order to book long term capital gains and more importantly due to my concerns about interest rate risks associated with a 7% coupon junior bond maturing in 2033 and selling near its par value. Sold 50 of Remaining 100 SIVBO at 24.9 Added 50 SIVBO at $19.15 Sold 50 of the 150 SIVBO at 24.65 Bought 50 SIVBO at $19.49 I still own 50 SIVBO shares bought in the Roth IRA Added 50 SIVBO AT $19.20 IN ROTH (October 2009)

I would recommend reading David Stockman's opinion column titled The Bipartisan March to Fiscal Madness in Sunday's NYT. I will discuss this column in a subsequent post in relation to my Canadian Dollar (CAD) Strategy.

1. Bought 50 DKF at $25.52 Last Wednesday (see Disclaimer): This brings me up to 150 shares of this trust certificate. This TC represents an undivided interest in a senior Goodrich bond owned by a Grantor Trust administered by an independent trustee.  The TC has a 8% coupon on a $25 par value.  This coupon is higher than the underlying bond which has a 7% coupon and is currently trading above its par value.  FINRA  Trading in the underlying bond is sporadic and light. DKF is vulnerable to a call at par value, plus accrued interest, by the owner of the call warrant attached to the TC. The existence of the call warrant will place a lid on DKF's appreciation above its par value which can caused a significant disparity in current yield, and YTM, between the underlying bond and DKF. I recently sold 100 shares of DKF at 26.8 due to that price being irrational in light of the call warrant.

There is no Tennessee income tax on earned income or on profits from stock sales. There is a 6% tax on certain dividend and interest payments after a standard deduction.  I would pay that tax on an interest payment made by DKF into a non-retirement account, but I would owe no state tax on the profit from selling my shares.

I still own 50 shares of DKF bought in the Roth IRA at $20. (March 2009). At that price my current yield until maturity is 10%. DKF went ex interest for its semi-annual interest payment on 3/30/2011: MS Structured Asset Corporation, DKF Stock Quote

Prospectus: sec.gov This bond has a lot of interest rate risk. It matures in 2038. I am not currently concerned about the credit risk.

This is a link to the last distribution report filed with the SEC by the trustee:  SEC Filed Trustee Report 

FINRA shows that the current rating of this bond is Baa2 by Moody's and BBB+ by S & P.

This is the link to the 1998  original prospectus for the underlying bond: Distribution Statement This is a link to the SEC filings for DKF.

For those unfamiliar with Goodrich, it is an aerospace company. Many still mistakingly associate the company with tires. The common stock symbol is GR and it has been on a tear over the past two years. GR Interactive Chart The current consensus estimate is for an E.P.S. of $5.47 in 2011 and $6.29 in 2012. GR Analyst Estimates

This is a link to the 2010 Annual Report:  e10vk

2. JNJ (own:  Large Cap Valuation Strategy and Common Stock Dividend Growth strategy):  I was not pleased with the disclosures over the past several months about the sloppy manufacturing processes at several JNJ plants that produced consumer products.  I decided to stay with the company, believing that management would do whatever was necessary to correct those problems. I am reinvesting the dividend. 

JNJ shares responded well to the 1st quarter earnings release. Excluding items, the company reported a Non-GAAP E.P.S. of $1.35 and $1.25 including items. JNJ also raised 2011 guidance to a range of $4.9 to $5.  SEC Filed Press Release

3. Earnings from OCFC, FNLC, UNB, FNFG and HCBK (own: Regional Bank Stocks' basket strategy):

OceanFirst Financial (OCFC) reported a 16.7% increase in earnings per share to 28 cents. As of 3/31/2011, the net interest margin was 3.6%; the provision for loan losses decreased to $1.7 million; NPLs to total loans was 2.15%; the allowance for loan losses to NPLs was 57.25% (over 100% is preferred here at HQ); the efficiency ratio was okay at 57.59%; tangible stockholder equity per share was $10.93; and the tangible common equity ratio was good at 9.1%. There is no government preferred stock on the balance sheet.  Bought 50 OCFC at 10.4 OCFC is a small bank operating in NJ.

This is a link to the 2010 Annual Report. Form 10-K  The 2010 year end capital ratios can be found at page 30. The bank earned $1.12 per diluted share in 2010 (page 43).  The current dividend rate is 12 cents per quarter, down from a rate of 20 cents in effect prior to 2010 (page 44). At a total constant cost of $10.4, the dividend yield is about 4.61%. I use the word "constant" in that kind of sentence to emphasize a point. When the dividend is increased, my yield goes up, a simple concept, but an extremely important point compared to fixed coupon bonds.  

First Bancorp (FNLC): This small regional bank operating in Maine reported a 17.1% increase in net income to 3.1 million dollars or 29 cents per share, up five cents from the 1st quarter of 2010. NPLs to total loans increased slightly to 2.51% from 2.39% as of 12/31/2010. As of 3/31/2011, the GAAP efficiency ratio was 50.76%, which I view as okay; the net interest margin was at 3.4%; the dividend payout ratio was at 67.24% (the dividend yield is good); the tangible book value per share was $10.13; the total risk based capital ratio was in excess of 16%; and this bank still has government preferred stock on its balance sheet. That later fact has restrained my purchase of more than 50 shares. Other factors restraining additional purchases include the level of NPLs and the contraction in loan growth year-over-year.

Union Bankshares  (UNB) reported a somewhat disappointing quarter, hurt by some extraordinary items and a slight increase in the loan loss provision. UNB reported net income of 1.03 million or 23 cents per share, down from 27 cents in the year ago quarter.  Some of those charges come from the March 2011 purchase by UNB of three branches from Northway Bank. Those branches are located in Groveton, Littleton and North Woodstock, New Hampshire. SEC Filed Press Release March 17, 2011 The Board declared the regular quarterly dividend of 25 cents per share.  I own just 50 shares and this report will not cause me to buy more.

This is a link to the bank's recently filed  Annual Report for 2010.

As expected, Hudson City (HCBK) slashed its dividend (by 47%), reported an awful quarter impacted by extraordinary charges, and continued to report an extremely poor net interest margin.  Fortunately, I have only a small stake. This purchase was obviously a mistake, but I am going to stay with it for several years and reinvest the dividend.  I suspect that it will be several years for this bank to recover.

The dividend was cut to 8 cents from 15 cents. The bank reported a loss of 555.7 million in the quarter.  The bank CEO and Chairman stated that he and the Board were "committed to shareholder value". As of 3/31/2011, Hudson's NPLs increased to 2.92% of total loans; the net interest margin was a horrific 1.72%; the allowance for loan losses as a percent of NPLs is a potentially worrisome 28.8%; and the capital ratios are still okay. The only positive is that the efficiency ratio at 26%, up from 22.1% as of 12/31/2010, is still good.

First Niagara (FNFG) is one of my larger positions in the regional bank basket. There are several reasons including the dividend yield, the good capital ratios, the low NPLs to total loan ratio, the high allowance for loan losses as a percentage of NPLs, the extremely low Texas Ratio, and the growth in the bank's geographic area. With the recent acquisition of New Alliance, which I owned at the time of the acquisition announcement, FNFG now has 345 branches in the Northeast. 

FNFG reported NON-GAAP earnings of $49.8 million or 24 cents per share for the 1st quarter, up from 18 cents in the year ago quarter. As of 3/31/2011,  NPLs to total loans was at .75%; NPAs to total assets was .41%; the allowance for loan losses as a percentage of NPLs was 124.6%; the consolidated tier 1 total risk based capital ratio was 14.13%; and tangible common equity to tangible assets was 8.2%. The Texas Ratio was just 8.51%, which is just superb. I would prefer to see a lower efficiency ratio, which FNFG reported at 64.5% on a consolidated basis and 62.5% for the banking segment. 

4. Added 30 of General Electric with cash flow at $19.95 on Thursday (see Disclaimer): I have been adding to GE shares with cash flow paid into the main taxable account since the summer of 2008, and I am reinvesting the dividend. This is a snapshot of my cash flow buys of GE common shares since the Lehman failure: 

Click to Enlarge:
GE CASH FLOW PURCHASES SINCE LEHMAN FAILURE


One advantage to having a constant stream of dividends and interest payments is that I have the freedom to make these kind of buys without worrying about the timing. The amount of the cash flow will keep the buys relatively small and spaced out in time.   

I thought that a small add was in order given the raise in the dividend, the 1st quarter earnings report, and the decline in the share price in response to the earnings release. The order was placed early Thursday morning about a dime below the existing market price, and the order was filled on a downdraft within a minute. 

GE did raise the quarterly dividend by 1 cent to 15 cents which was the third increase in the last 12 months.  Business Wire GAAP earnings increased 48% to 3.4 billion dollars or 31 cents per share. Excluding items, GE earned 33 cents per share. The consensus estimate was for 28 cents. GE Capital earned 1.8 billion after tax, so hopefully that operation is on the upswing. GECC's common ratio has improved to 9.8% from 7.8% in the 1st quarter of 2010.

5: Snapshot of Intel Purchases with Cash Flow:  

I have been following the same approach to the purchase of Intel shares since the Lehman failure:

Click To Enlarge:

Intel Purchases with Cash Flow Since Lehman's Failure
Most likely, I would start to trim GE at or above $30 per share. I may quit reinvesting the dividend when and if GE trades consistently for several months over $25.

Due to other responsibilities, primarily involving the administration of a trust where I am the sole trustee, as well as an estate (both unpaid duties), I am going to be falling way behind in discussing my trades from last week.   

Thursday, April 21, 2011

NYB RNST CZNC/Bought 1 Senior 6.9% Dean Foods Bond Maturing 10/15/2017 at 93.5/Intel NYB TRST/Bought 30 PCBK as LT at 9.42/Sold 200 JPC at 8.6

Senator Corker (R-TN) has joined the other TBs in stating that he will not vote to raise the debt ceiling unless Obama agrees to the GOP's spending cuts.  The GOP has made it clear to everyone that they prefer to see the U.S. default on the nation's debts unless the Democrats agree to their spending cuts. Corker views this linkage, which involves holding approval of the debt ceiling increase hostage, to be responsible conduct. It is without question in my mind irresponsible.

For anyone interested in a fact check of Obama's recent budget speech responding to the GOP's budget plan, which I hope to discuss soon, this is a link to the FactCheck.org analysis. (see also PolitiFact) Of course, any politician has trouble stringing two sentences of accurate information together, and Obama is certainly no exception.  In the President's speech, I understood the specifics about the tax increases proposed for those deemed well off by the Democrats but the spending cuts did sound a little mushy to me.  There was a lot of detail about spending reductions and program terminations in the President's budget that is available at the White House web site: www.whitehouse.gov .pdf 

For a breakdown of federal spending by category, see The President's Budget for Fiscal Year 2012 | The White House

I have seen a number of statistics estimating that the federal government loses close to 60 billion per year in medicare fraud.  Rampant Medicare Fraud (February 2010 Post) I would think that everyone agrees that more needs to be done to substantially lower that number.  For example, it should be a strong vetting process for potential medical suppliers before allowing them to bill medicare. Fraud in this billing was exposed in a recent 60 minutes story. Medicare Fraud: A $60 Billion Crime - 60 Minutes - CBS News PolitiFact Medicare fraud   No one should be allowed to open a store in Miami, and just start billing Medicare for supplies that do not exist, with the government writing the checks.  And prison sentences for convictions need to be really severe. A conviction for defrauding Medicare out of 23 million for example should be no less than 30 years. Miami doctor convicted of $23 million Medicare fraud -  MiamiHerald.com A 200 million dollar fraud conviction should result in a life sentence without possibility of parole,  Fla. couple pleads guilty in $200M Medicare fraud - BusinessWeekMore than 100 charged nationwide with Medicare fraud - Los Angeles Times

Maybe the GOP needs to channel some of their zealotry into significantly increasing funding for investigations of, and prosecutions for fraud, and for supporting legislation that would make fraud far more difficult to implement, before punishing seniors by fundamentally altering Medicare to shift more costs to those least able to afford it and away from the government while reducing the tax rates substantially- again- for the wealthy.

Few would disagree that the government is invariably careless with large amounts of money. How many billions went down a rat  hole in IRAQ with no clear proof of what happened to the money? BBC  IG: $9B in Iraq project funds unaccounted for - Army News  ABC News  And, then you have the IRS doling out 500 million in potentially false claims associated with the first home buyer income tax credit. Audit Finds IRS Paid $500 Million In Unjustified Home Buyer Credits Why can't the IRS have a computer system where there could be a check of a prior tax return to determine eligibility before the check is sent out to an unqualified recipient, one who claimed mortgage deductions on a primary residence in the past but who now claims to be a first time home buyer. Billions could be saved by the government ceasing to be grossly incompetent and ineptly mismanaged, a condition that continues to worsen no matter which political Tribe has the power.

One thing is for certain, the pay of Federal workers rises no matter what, until the recent temporary freeze for many of them. Maybe everyone needs to go to work for the U.S. government, as the number of federal workers making more than $100,000 per year grew by 19% during the last recession, USATODAY. How many persons do you think make more than $100,000 per year working for the federal government, excluding the value of the generous health and retirement benefits? Answer: As of 6/2009, 382,758 according to the article in USAToday.

Christopher Danely, the J P Morgan analyst on Intel, had predicted earnings of 39 cents for the 1st quarter on 11.3 billion in revenues. JPMorgan Capitulates Like many of the highly paid analysts on Intel, Danely had done his channel checks and was up to speed on one of the few companies in his coverage universe, working day and night to earn  every cent of his pay. Intel actually reported a non-GAAP E.P.S. of 59 cents on 12.9 billion in revenues.  I did not see a mea culpa from the Roth analyst who recently caused a downdraft in the stock by lowering his price target to $20 and his recommendation to neutral.   INTC rose $1.55 or 7.8% in trading yesterday to close at $21.41.

I have previously referred to some other analyst pessimistic comments made shortly before the latest earnings release in the following posts: Item # 5  Intel (Gus Richard from Piper Jaffray says Intel is less relevant); Item # 3 Intel (J P Morgan analyst Chris Danely says Intel is being too optimistic about sales; Jefferies Adam Benjamin says Intel is facing headwinds and the PC market is in secular decline, MarketWatch). Maybe these big brokerage companies should start paying the LB to opine about the prospects of all of the companies covered by their analysts.

I am not going to discuss the earnings report from Renasant. I own 100 shares in my regional bank basket strategy. The stock did rise 53 cents in trading yesterday, closing at $16.46, in response to the earnings release.  PRNewswire This small regional bank has been growing its service territory with FDIC assisted acquisitions.

Citizens & Northern (owned) increased its quarterly dividend to 14 cents per share, up from 13, representing the 5th consecutive quarterly increase.   I discussed the 1st quarter earnings report from CZNC in Item # 7 GOP Comes Out of the Closet on Medicare.  My average constant total cost for 100 shares is $11.27, as shown in the snapshot in that linked post.  That dividend raise increases by current yield to 4.97% from 4.61%.


1. New York Community Bancorp (own: Regional Bank Stocks' basket strategy): New York Community Bancorp reported GAAP net income of 123.176 million or 28 cents per share, down from 29 cents a share in the first quarter of 2009.  The "operating earnings" were lower at 27 cents per share, down from 29 cents in the 1st quarter of 2010.  And lastly, just to add some work to individual investors who own the stock, NYB reported "cash" earnings of 31 cents per share.  Cash earnings contributed to a 12.6 million to tangible capital. Total delinquent loans fell 13.2%.  The estimate was for 31 cents.

As of 3/31/2011, the GAAP efficiency ratio was 38.5; the net interest margin was 3.58% (up from 3.41% in the year ago quarter); NPLs (non-covered) were 2.19% to total loans; the allowance for losses on non-covered loans to non-covered loans was 23.72% (viewed here at HQ as potentially troubling); and tangible stockholder equity to tangible assets was at 7.87.

I currently own 100 shares of NYB at an average cost of $11.31 per share:

NYB Total Average Cost Per Share =$11.31
The dividend yield at my constant total cost number is currently 8.84%. My unrealized gain is a long term capital gain.

I sold the 100 shares held in an IRA at a good profit, and those shares have never been included in my regional bank stock table or the realized gains reported in Item # 3 Realized Gains Regional Bank Stocks' Basket Strategy Starting in 2010

The market did not like this earnings report, taking NYB shares down 77 cents in trading on Tuesday to close at $16.31.  I do not disagree with that selloff.  However, I am likely to keep NYB for several years due to my dividend yield, provided I am comfortable with the earnings and overall operating performance.

I am devoting $40,000 to $50,000 to my Regional Bank Basket Strategy, with that range of funds devoted to the strategy over the next several years.  I will trade positions to lower my average cost per share where feasible, eliminate some failures, book profits as I proceed, reinvest some of the dividends to buy additional shares, and keep around 30 to 50 stocks in the basket.  I am currently close to the bottom part of both of those ranges.  The unrealized gains are moving in a range between $3500 and $4500, and the realized gains are close to 6 thousand.

2. Added 1 Dean Foods 6.9% Senior Bond Maturing 10/15/2017 at 93.5 on Tuesday (Junk Bond Ladder Strategy)(see Disclaimer): This purchase brings me up to 3 Dean Food (DF) bonds and hopefully that is my limit.  This purchase is an average up from my prior purchase of the 2017 bond: 1 Dean Foods 6.9% Senior Bond Maturing 10/15/2017 at 89.48 last December. This is a link to the FINRA information about this bond. I also own 1 senior DF bond maturing in 2016: 1 Dean Foods 7% Senior Bond Maturing 6/1/2016

The common stock is currently rated 4 stars by Morningstar.  The company is heavily indebted (see pages 39 to 46 of the 2010 Form 10-K).  Analysts estimate that the company will earn 58 cents per share in 2011 and 77 cents in 2012 on revenues of over 12 billion each year. DF Analyst Estimates

3. Sold 200 of the 400 JPC at $8.6 on Tuesday (see Disclaimer):  I own over 900 shares of a similar balanced CEF, JQC.  I wanted to pare my position in either JPC or JQC, since both are heavy into junk bonds, and I have recently added a number of individual junk bonds.  I have also own two junk bond ETFs and several exchange traded bonds that are rated in junk territory. I had become slightly uncomfortable in my dollar volume of exposure to that bond sector.

Both of these CEFs are included in the same  Annual Report filed by Nuveen with the SEC. I view them to be functionally equivalent and will make buy and sell decisions based on their respective yields and discounts to net asset value. JQC has performed slightly better over a five year period. Both are selling at significant discounts and pay quarterly dividends. Both went ex dividend for their quarterly distributions in March.

I am reinvesting the dividend paid by JQC and will start reinvesting the dividend on the remaining 200 of JPC. 

The JPC asset allocation can be found at page 16 of the Annual Report and JQC's allocation is at page 17. 

4. TrustCo (TRST)(ownRegional Bank Stocks' basket strategy):  Trustco produced yet another lackluster and uninspiring earnings report, neither bad nor good.  The bank reported net income of 7.4 million or $.096 for the 2011 1st quarter, barely budging from the $.09 per share earned in the year ago quarter.  As of 3/31/2011, NPLs to total loans was 2.14%; the coverage ratio was somewhat comforting at .9; the net interest margin was 3.4%; the efficiency ratio was okay at 52.18;  the total risk based capital ratio was at 13.92%; and total equity to assets was at 6.55%.

I am near break-even on this one.  The dividend yield is good at close to 4.5% which may be the only significant positive.  

5. Bought Back 30 Pacific Continental (PCBK) at 9.42 on Tuesday as an LT (LOTTERY TICKET strategy) (see Disclaimer):  PCBK reported 1st quarter net income of 1.4 million, up 31% over the year ago quarter, or 8 cents per share.  This was in line with estimates.  This small bank has twelve branches in Oregon and Washington, located in the three large metropolitan areas of Eugene and Portland, Oregon and Seattle, Washington. Locations :: Pacific Continental Bank I previously bought shares in this bank as an LT at $8.9.

I noted in the LT Gateway Post that those shares were later sold at $10.18 with no write up in the blog. LB sold the shares, after becoming disgusted with the sheer number of RB's LT selections. A compromise was later reached between the RB and the LB, # 33,464,395,902,751, where the RB could buy whatever as long as the LB did not have to look at the company more than one time.  So LT's will now be discussed once when the purchase is made.  The general approach on LTs will be mostly to ignore them for several years and then see what happens. It may take a few years to discover whether PCBK can return to its growth path prevailing in the period between 2002-2007: PCBK Interactive Chart

I did note in the prior post that PCBK did not participate in TARP, which is viewed favorably here at HQ.

LB would add at this juncture that the banks in the Northwest appear to be rivaling the good ole boys in Georgia for blowing their institutions up.

There are some positives.  The net interest margin is good, relatively speaking, at 4.66% during the 1st quarter.

As of 3/31/2011, the efficiency ratio was 68.05% which is almost not okay; the allowance for loan losses as a percentage of NPLs is a somewhat uncomfortable for me 50.11% (one among many reasons for the LT classification);  NPLs to total loans was 3.61% (another reason for the LT classification); the tangible book value of $8.22 per share is a positive given the share price; and the capital ratios are good.  The tangible common equity to tangible assets ratio was high at 12.82% (very good); the total capital to risk weighted assets ratio was 18.18% (above 10% considered well capitalized); the Tier 1 leverage ratio was 13.42% (over 5% deemed well capitalized); and the tier 1 risk based capital ratio was 16.93% (over 6% deemed well capitalized by the government).

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Intel Earnings/Sold 50 HEPRU at 25.4/Bought 100 of the ETF XMD:CA @ 23.62 CAD/ Congressman Rand and GOP's Messiah Ayn Rand/SOLD 1 Hawker Beechcraft Acquisition Bond at 83.5

The WSJ.com does have a long listing of exchange traded bonds, in their various flavors, and equity preferred stocks.

I was not surprised to learn that the Congressman Ryan (R) is a devoted follower of Ayn Rand, the Messiah for the modern day GOP.  His budget proposal, recently passed with overwhelming GOP support, reflects Ayn Rand's vision for America.  The Atlantic After all Ms. Rand would view all of those seniors relying on government subsidized Medicare to be a bunch of moochers. They just need to work until they drop.

For the benefit of the top 1%, the non-moochers, Ryan believes it is just better to eliminate all of those moocher programs like Medicare and Medicaid in their current form. The poor are parasites feeding off the rich in Ryan and Rand's view, so that needs correcting too. War on the Weak - Newsweek.  Might as well get rid of most environmental regulations so the creative industrialists envisioned by Rand and Ryan can pollute more freely and thereby increase their profit margins too. Ryan of course voted for the 1 trillion dollar war in Iraq and the Bush tax cuts, both adding tremendously to the budget problem.  

The GOP tribes in various states, flexing their muscles after the recent election, want to emasculate state environmental laws and to turn state parks over to industrial development in order to help "small business" in the words of Maine's new republican governor. NYT 

The GOP was recently unsuccessful in its latest push to limit financing to the federal Environmental Protection Agency and to abolish rules in order to permit more pollution. latimes.com 

As shown by the good works of another swooning disciple of Rand, our former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, the solution in the financial arena was to allow the "creative" Masters of Disaster free rein to do whatever they want and the benefits would flow down to the middle class and the poor, at least in theory.   Greenspan was a great believer in the 2004 SEC rule change that allowed investment banks to police themselves and to increase their leverage beyond any level deemed prudent by a rational person who was not blinded with greed (2004 SEC Rule Change)  It took only three years for the "creative" Masters of Disaster, Rand disciples no doubt, to blow up the entire world's financial system, while enriching themselves in the process. Rand would be so proud of them.
Their conduct was certainly so creative.  Isn't everyone glad that they are back on their feet earning more than ever?

RB wants to be a Master of Disaster, after channeling Ayn Rand and figuring that once the RB is unrestrained by all of LB's rules and regulations, free of the OG's moralism, and free of all consequences and repercussions, it will finally be able to amass enough funds to buy Canada, all of it. Then, the Canadians can start working at the same wage level as staff members here at HQ in their pursuit of amassing more capital for our Great Leader Headknocker.  More power to the HK.     

Possibly Congressman Ryan needs to read some American history about what conditions were like in the U.S. for the average working American around 1900, but it is easier to just forget about history when formulating your vision about Rand's utopia. I doubt that he would care or learn anything by a review of American history. More importantly, it is imperative to overlook the more undesirable and forever predictable traits of human beings acting in what they perceive as their own best interests. Maybe Americans need to find rat meat mixed up with their hamburger, breathe more carcinogens and become irradiated in a nuclear plant meltdown.     

The general idea underlying the GOP policies is to return America to the angelic conditions that existed in the late 19th Century, before all of that Progressive crap polluted the American psyche with such moocher programs and laws like minimum wage, unemployment compensation, Medicare, workers compensation, Social Security, environmental and worker protection laws.  After all the Robber Barons know best anyway, and will act in the best interest of society in their pursuit of profits.

Any rational and remotely knowledgeable person would not agree with Rand's belief that government stifles innovation or conspires against the creative industrialists.  Anyone with a worthwhile product and idea finds funding in the U.S. to launch new enterprises, and the examples number in the tens of thousands.

Canada reported yesterday that consumer prices rose 3.3% in the 12 months ending in March:  Latest release from the Consumer Price Index. Tuesday, April 19, 2011  The CAD continued to rise in value against the USD which is the underlying rationale for my  Canadian Dollar (CAD) Strategy I will no longer buy CADs with my USDs, given the large price appreciation but I will continue to take distributions paid by my Canadian securities in CADs.

Obama says that he loves Texas, an unrequited love.  The Republican Governor, Rick Perry, may run for President, following in George Juniors footsteps.   I thought that the most famous statement made by Perry was that Texas could succeed from the U.S. YouTube - Rick Perry

1.  SOLD 50 HEPRU at 25.4 in the ROTH IRA Last Friday (see Disclaimer):  HEPRU is a trust preferred stock issued by HECO Capital Trust, a Delaware Trust formed by Hawaii Electric (HE) for the purpose of buying HE's junior bonds.  This sale is part of downsizing my exposure to low yielding long term bonds whose current values will suffer when inflation triggers a rise in interest rates.  This junior bond has a 6.5% coupon on a $25 par value and matures in 2034.  I am not currently concerned about credit risk, but interest rate risk.  I view any bond or bond fund purchase made over the past year or so to be a success when I am able to exit the position with any profit.  I barely accomplished that objective for this TP: Bought 50 HEPRU @ 25.05 IRA (Oct 10, 2010 Post).  I did collect two quarterly interest payments.

2. Sold 1 Hawker Beechcraft 8.5% Senior Bond Maturing 2015 at 83.5 on Monday (Junk Bond Ladder Strategy)(see Disclaimer): This Hawker bond was bought in February at 75.5.  Bought 1 Hawker Acquisition Senior Bond Maturing 2015 Since its purchase, the OG has been anxious about it, accelerating the recurrence of OG's fantasies about living under a bridge and eating at the soup kitchen.  The Hawker bond was one of the highest yielding and riskiest holdings in the junk bond ladder strategy.  It recent operating performance did not soothe the OG's concerns about the credit risk. Item # 4 Hawker  I  made a few bucks on the bond plus interest for the number of days that I owned owned the bond.  

3. CNB Financial  (CCNE Stock Quote)(own: Regional Bank Stocks' basket strategy): CNB Financial, a small regional bank operating in Pennsylvania, reported 3rd quarter net income of 3.3 million dollars or 27 cents per share, up from 25 cents in the year ago quarter. As of 3/31/2011, the tier 1 risk based capital ratio was 14.07%; the total risk based ratio was 15.32%;  NPAs to total assets was at 2.03%; tangible book value was $8.31 per share; and the net interest margin was at 3.53 for the 1st Quarter.  Loans were up 11.4% compared to the 1st quarter of 2010. Deposits were up 18.8%. This bank has 26 full service branches in PA.

This is a link to CCNE 2010 Annual Report: Form 10-K

Bought 50 CCNE at 11.06  I am not reinvesting the dividend.  At a total constant cost of $11.06, the current dividend yield is around 6.15%.

4. Bought 100 of the Canadian ETF XMD:CA at 23.62 CAD on the Toronto Exchange on Tuesday (Canadian Dollar (CAD) Strategy)(see Disclaimer): On Monday I received the Annual Report from Ishares Canada. I own several of the ETFs sponsored by that firm. This is a link to their web site:  iShares ETFs  I was thumbing through the Annual Report and decided to buy XMD which contains about 189  small and mid companies traded on the Toronto exchange:  XMD Overview - iShares ETFs As one would expect, this ETF is heavily weighted in materials, energy and financials, in that order. The expense ratio is .55%.

My position in CADs is significant to me.  This is a link to a two year chart of the CAD/USD Currency Conversion.

One CAD will now buy close to $1.045 USDs.

There are several symbols used by various financial sites for foreign securities.  At Fidelity, the symbol for this ETF is XMD:CA. The symbol at Yahoo Finance is XMD.TO;   TSE:XMD at Google Finance; and CA:XMD at Markewatch.


5. Intel (own):  Intel reported an excellent first quarter.  It would have been impossible to believe these results were possible after reading several recent analyst reports downgrading this stock and Intel's earnings estimates for the quarter and the year.  Most of the youngsters, who are given the power to speak on behalf of brokerage companies when issuing their "research" reports, have no business advising anyone, including themselves.  Maybe their mothers would be interested in what they have to say.  LB made the preceding statement, the remainder of staff here at HQ disavows it.  HK thought the LB was being way too generous to the WS analysts.   

INTC reported a 25% increase in revenue to 12.9 billion dollars and a non-GAAP E.P.S. of 59 cents per share.  The GAAP E.P.S. number was 56 cents per share.  The analysts had predicted 11.6 billion in revenue, off by 1.3 billion dollars, and 46 cents per share.  The analysts were estimating 11.9 billion in revenue for the current quarter. Intel is estimating revenues between $12.4 to 13.4 billion  Intel estimates earnings for the current quarter in a range between 32 and 35 cents and the analysts are at 28 cents.  The company said there was double digit revenue growth in all product segments and in all geographies. The data center revenue was up 32%.  This report is discussed in  articles at Bloomberg and Reuters.

I have bought Intel shares between $14.46 and $19.91:  Bought INTC at 14.46 (October 2008); Bought Intel at $15.87 (October 2008); Bought Intel at 15.25 (May 2009); Added to Intel at $19.08 (November 2009); Added 40 Intel at 18.35 (August 2010);  Added:   40 INTC @ 19.16 (October 2010); Added 30 Intel at 19.91 (March 2011).  I suspect that all of those purchases were made with cash flow coming into the main taxable account from dividends and interest distributions.  I am reinvesting the dividend. 

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

EXCHANGE TRADED BOND TABLE/Bought 1 AMR 9% Senior Bond Maturing 9/1/5/2016 at 99.375/TMRK NHTB/Added 70 CSQ at 9.63

This is a link to a video at  Reuters about inflation and growth in China. China's GDP growth in the first quarter of 2011 was 9.7%, higher than the expectation of 9.5%, and down slightly from the 9.8% growth rate reported in the first quarter of 2010. China's CPI rose 5.4% in March compared to a year earlier.  A number of economists discuss these numbers in an article in the WSJ.

In response, the Central Bank of China tightened monetary conditions by requiring most banks to hold more reserves. The new requirement will require most banks to have a 20.5% reserve requirement ratio, while some banks will be required to hold more. This is the 4th increase in the reserve requirement ration in 2011.   

S & P cut the U.S. government debt outlook to negative yesterday.

I have frequently heard the "conservatives" at Fox denounce food inspection as interfering with our liberties. I know that sounds absurd, but I am not kidding.  Glen Beck was one who claimed that Teddy Roosevelt, a Republican President, started Americans on the road to slavery by advocating that food actually be inspected by the federal government to make sure no rats were mixed with the hamburger.  The Reactionary Philosophy of Glen Beck. I have heard equally absurd garbage coming from the mouth of "Judge" Napolitano.

A few weeks ago,  I heard this former New Jersey superior court judge, elevated to prominence at Fox "News", assert that our constitutional liberties were being taken away by food inspection. I am not kidding, just read his rant at the preceding link.  Both of these Fox show people are complaining about the Progressive Era in American government, roughly a period from the 1890s to the early 1920s.

Beck says that progressives were and are a cancer on America. Jon Stewart's take on Beck's statement: Intro - Progressivism Is Cancer and Conservative Libertarian - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - 03/18/10.

When listening to a FOX show person like the Judge, opinions are stated as facts, and those opinions are more properly characterized as hyperbole or gross exaggerations without even a remote connection to any reliable information. Thus, the Pure Food and Drug Act and the Meat Inspection Act, both passed by the Progressives in 1906, are referenced by the Judge, without giving any background as to why Congress passed those laws over a hundred years ago. According to Beck and the Judge, these kind of laws become in their eyes a simple, totally moronic concept: the government is telling us what "food was worthy of consumption" (the judge is off by about a decade as to when the law passed).  The law was passed of course in response to widespread proof of contaminated meat being sold throughout the U.S.

CBS News ran a story last Friday that the FDA was finding a large number of drug resistant bacteria in the nation's food supply. 

Maybe I am just odd, but I do not mind that the government checks out the meat for germs that can make me sick or even kill me. I would like for the government to spend more money interfering with my freedom to eat contaminated food. For reasons that I feel no to explain, I do not view a restriction on the sale of contaminated meat to be an interference with my freedom, only a fool would.

LB would add at this juncture that someone needs to interfere with the OG's food choice freedoms.  A steady diet of cheeseburgers and hershey kisses are not on too many lists prepared by nutritionists.  And, while it may sound silly to some, the OG views Fritos as a health food, being made from corn which is healthy right. The OG replied that he gets his veggies everyday in a convenient, easy to swallow pill called Veggies4Life which contains "all of that vegetable food crap", the OG added, as the rest of staff just shook their heads in embarrassment.

The Judge is also upset with the progressive movement's success in passing the Seventeenth Amendment, oh about a 100 or so years ago, to the Constitution that required the direct election of U.S. Senators.  And, how is the direct election of U.S. senators by the people an example of the government intruding into my life and freedoms. Really?  I am not kidding, just read the link to his rant.  

Before the Seventeenth Amendment to the United States Constitution was passed giving the people the right to elect their Senators, they were selected by the state legislatures and frequently in a corrupt way. No doubt these reactionaries also want to repeal the Constitutional Amendment giving woman the right to vote so that the government could quit interfering with a man's freedom to dominate the world.

Lastly, the Judge was upset about the government telling employers what wage to pay. What is he talking about in that glib reference, the only possibility is the minimum wage which was first passed as a response to sweat shots exploiting workers.

The GOP coalition, the wingnuts, the religious zealots sometimes referred to here at HQ as the American Taliban movement, the Birthers and reactionaries, and the advocates of "states rights", all of whom want to be called conservative, are a powerful and growing force in America and have found plenty of room to grow and to be nurtured by the modern day GOP.

They are certainly far more dominant political force than True Conservatives like the OG who might as well bang their head against the wall as attempt to engage the rank and file in an intelligent, fact based conversation. Try showing a Birther the facts and see if you make any progress changing their mind? Really, you know what I am saying is true. Facts really do not matter to them.

Any reliable and true fact is false by definition if it does not conform precisely to a pre-existing belief formed without regard to facts or much thought for that matter.

1. Bought 1 Senior AMR 9% Bond Maturing on 9/15/2016 at 99.375 Last Friday (Junk Bond Ladder Strategy) (See Disclaimer): HK exploded after hearing the OG bought this bond. AMR is short for American Airlines. The OG defended the purchase by noting that the yield and maturity were good, the worldwide economic recovery might actually result in earnings down the road at some point in the future, and the HK did not have a bond from a transportation company, other than Travelport, in the Junk Bond Ladder Strategy. LB noted that AMR just filed a lawsuit against Travelport, MiamiHerald.com, and the OG replied that he was playing both sides in the case by owning bonds issued by both the plaintiff and the defendant.

LB then  insisted that the OG had to be removed immediately as HT while HK still has some money left.  The OG is not capable of crunching all of the variables, LB added, and did not fully evaluate all of the alternate scenarios, including without limitation, the aging AA fleet in need of replacement, the skyrocketing cost of fuel, the possibility of an economic downturn occurring upon the withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the extreme debt load of the company.  OG pointed out that AA was not one of the deadbeat airlines that declared bankruptcy when things got tough and that was important to the OG, shows character.

This is a link to the FINRA information on this bond.  Moody's has a Caa2 rating. S & P is at CCC+. Fitch gives its a lowly C.  This bond has been around since 1986.

The long term debt is without question scary at $8.756 billion as of 12/31/2010: see page 63, SEC.  AMR lost 471 million dollars in 2010 (p. 50), but that was an improvement RB just said from a 1.468 billion dollar loss in 2009. "knuckleheads and dimwits", LB could not resist saying.

My confirmation states that the current yield at my  total cost is 8.984%% and the YTM is about the same given the purchase near par value.

2. ADDED 70 to Balanced CEF CSQ at 9.63 Last Friday (see Disclaimer):  My last CSQ purchase was 100 shares at last November. Bought 100 CSQ @ 8.94 I thereafter started to reinvest the monthly dividends to buy additional shares starting with the December 2010 distribution and will likely continue to do so as long as the discount to net asset value exceeds 10%.

This fund is known as the Calamos Strategic Total Return Fund. As of 2/28/2011, the fund was weighted 56.2% in stocks, 19.4% in corporate bonds, 7.2% in convertible preferred stock, 11.3% in convertible bonds, 3.1% in synthetic convertibles, and the remainder in sundry asset classes including cash and sovereign bonds. Composition: Calamos Strategic Total Return Fund Dividends are paid monthly at $.0525 per share. Distributions This gives me about 6.54% at at total cost of $9.63 per share.  The fund is rated 3 stars by Morningstar. As shown on that page from Morningstar, the fund does use leverage.

CSQ closed at $9.54 yesterday, down 10 cents for the day. As of 4/18/2011, the net asset value per share was $11. and the discount was -13.27 based on the $9.54 close.  WSJ.com

3. Trustmark (own-Regional Bank Stocks' basket strategy):  I have not done anything recently in my Regional Bank Basket Strategy. I decided to wait for the 1st quarter earnings reports before doing anything.  The unrealized gain is currently hovering in the $4000 to $5000 range. The realized gains are $5,873.26.  Item # 3 Realized Gains Regional Banks Most of the stocks pay good dividends and the average yield at my cost is probably close to 5%. Trustmark is currently paying a quarterly dividend of 23 cents per share, and I bought 50 shares at TRMK at $19.57. This gives me a current yield on my constant cost basis of about 4.7%. I have TRMK on my list for possible adds.  

I look at a large number of criteria when making choices. I am particularly interested in healthy, small banks growing their service territory and customer base with FDIC assisted acquisitions of failed banking institutions. After the close last Friday, Trustmark announced the FDIC acquisition of the Heritage Banking Group, headquartered in Carthage, Mississippi. Heritage had approximately 224 million in assets and 196 million in total deposits. I counted 8 branches at Heritage's website, with 3 in Carthage. 

When I purchased those shares in Trustmark, I noted several criteria viewed important when making selections in the regional bank basket which is a strategy with a five to ten year time horizon. The first criteria discussed by me was the bank's good capital ratios. I noted the net interest margin which was higher than normal, the good dividend, the bank had already paid back TARP funds to the government, the allowance for loan losses significantly exceeded non-performing loans, and earnings were growing.  The bank subsequently reported good earnings for the 4th quarter of 2010: Item # 8 TRMK The current consensus estimate is for an E.P.S. of $1.54 in 2011 and $1.72 in 2012. TRMK Analyst Estimates I am reluctant to buy more shares at the current price. 

4. New Hampshire Thrift Bancshares (NHTB)(own- Regional Bank Stocks' basket strategy)New Hampshire Thrift Bancshares reported consolidated net income of $2,024,984 or 33 cents per diluted shares for the first quarter, up from 28 cents in the first quarter of 2010.  There is no analyst earnings estimate. NPLs as a percentage of total loans fell to 1.22% as of 3/31/2011. The Tier 1 Core Capital ratio was 8.45%. The bank is paying a 13 cent per share quarterly dividend.

I bought 100 shares at $9.51, and I am content to hold those shares.

NHTB TOTAL AVERAGE COST PER SHARE = $9.59 


The current dividend yield at my constant cost number is around 5.5%.  

This bank has 28 branches, mostly in New Hampshire with 5 in Vermont.  

This is a link to the 2010 Annual Report: Form 10-K

5. Exchange Traded Bonds and Preferred Stocks Currently Owned: I recently prepared a separate YF portfolio containing my holdings in exchange trade bonds and equity preferred stocks. I lump the later with bonds when evaluating my asset allocation since I view their bond characteristics to be far more dominant than their equity attributes. All of these securities in the following table trade on the stock exchange just like a common stock. Exchange traded bonds include trust preferred stocks (in effect junior bonds), European hybrids, baby bonds, trust certificates, and "principle protected" senior notes.   I had to take two snapshots to capture all of the holdings. I have recently sold several holdings as I pared my long term bond positions as well as my exposure to GS issues.

Exchange Traded Bonds and Preferred Stocks Part 1

Exchange Traded Bonds and Preferred Stocks Part 2
The stock market had a bad day yesterday but the preceding portfolio lost about $16.  That is one reason to have bonds in a portfolio. I would remind readers that the OG is a stock investor and only became a bond investor in the summer of 2008 after seeing substantial values arising in trust certificates and other exchange traded bonds after Lehman's failure, possibly a once in a lifetime opportunity.  Many of those positions have been sold at over 100% profits plus distributions.

Exchange Traded Bonds:
TRUST Certificates: Links in One Post
Trust Preferred Securities: Links in One Post
Aegon Hybrids: Gateway Post
Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities
Synthetic Floaters
ING HYBRIDS: Links in one Post
Floaters: Links in One Post