I am now running close to two weeks behind in discussing trades.
Last Friday's Closing Prices:
DJI: 16,361.46 -140.19 (-0.85%)
S & P 500: 1,863.40 -15.21 (-0.81%)
Nasdaq Composite: 4,075.56 -72.78 (-1.75%)
Russell 2000: 1,123.03 -21.32 (-1.86%)
VIX: 14.06 +0.74 (+5.56%)
TLT: $111.33 +0.16 (+0.14%) : iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF
MUB: $108.09 +0.14 (+0.13%) : iShares National AMT-Free Municipal Bond ETF
BABS: $58.54 +0.01 (+0.02%) : SPDR Nuveen Barclays Build America Bond ETF
GLD: 125.43 +0.87 (+0.70%) : SPDR Gold Trust
SLV: 18.94 +0.02 (+0.11%) : iShares Silver Trust
Big Picture Synopsis
Last Friday's Closing Prices:
DJI: 16,361.46 -140.19 (-0.85%)
S & P 500: 1,863.40 -15.21 (-0.81%)
Nasdaq Composite: 4,075.56 -72.78 (-1.75%)
Russell 2000: 1,123.03 -21.32 (-1.86%)
VIX: 14.06 +0.74 (+5.56%)
TLT: $111.33 +0.16 (+0.14%) : iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF
MUB: $108.09 +0.14 (+0.13%) : iShares National AMT-Free Municipal Bond ETF
BABS: $58.54 +0.01 (+0.02%) : SPDR Nuveen Barclays Build America Bond ETF
GLD: 125.43 +0.87 (+0.70%) : SPDR Gold Trust
SLV: 18.94 +0.02 (+0.11%) : iShares Silver Trust
Big Picture Synopsis
Stocks:
Stable Vix Pattern: Bullish
Vix Asset Allocation Model Explained Simply
Use of the VIX as a Timing Model
Short Term: Expecting a Correction
Intermediate Term: Slightly Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
There appears to be considerable upside resistance in the S & P 500 between 1880 to 1890. I have noticed on several occasions over the past several weeks that rally attempts into that range have been met with selling.
On bad market days, the excessively valued momentum names and the Russell 2000 are declining far more than the DJIA and the S & P 500. The momentum names are vulnerable to continued downside pressure. While some of the excesses have already been taken out of those stocks, they are still excessively valued in my opinion.
Last Friday's Closing Prices:
AMZN: $303.83 -33.32 (-9.88%)
TSLA: $199.85 -8.01 (-3.85%) : Tesla Motors
NFLX: $322.08 -21.99 (-6.39%) : Netflix
TRIP: $77.39 -6.09 (-7.30%) : TripAdvisor
FB: $57.71 -3.16 (-5.19%) : Facebook
ILMN: $139.71 -11.97 (-7.89%) : Illumina
PCLN: $1,157.24 -59.79 (-4.91%) : The Priceline Group
LNKD: $158.17 -13.42 (-7.82%) : LinkedIn Corporation Class A
Amazon reported GAAP earnings of $.23 per share for the 2014 first quarter: AMZN Someday, possibly in my lifetime, AMZN will stop spending so much money and actually report a quarterly profit that justifies the current price.
A long term secular bull market started on August 20, 1982 when the S & P 500 rose to 113.02 from 109.16. Volume accelerated during the liftoff. Historical Prices | S&P 500 By the end of 1982, the S & P had risen 28.84%. The closing high before the October 1987 crash, sort of a flash crash in retrospect, was at 334.57 on 8/27/1987. The rise from the 8/19/82 close was 206.49%.
Stable Vix Pattern: Bullish
Vix Asset Allocation Model Explained Simply
Use of the VIX as a Timing Model
Short Term: Expecting a Correction
Intermediate Term: Slightly Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
There appears to be considerable upside resistance in the S & P 500 between 1880 to 1890. I have noticed on several occasions over the past several weeks that rally attempts into that range have been met with selling.
On bad market days, the excessively valued momentum names and the Russell 2000 are declining far more than the DJIA and the S & P 500. The momentum names are vulnerable to continued downside pressure. While some of the excesses have already been taken out of those stocks, they are still excessively valued in my opinion.
Last Friday's Closing Prices:
AMZN: $303.83 -33.32 (-9.88%)
TSLA: $199.85 -8.01 (-3.85%) : Tesla Motors
NFLX: $322.08 -21.99 (-6.39%) : Netflix
TRIP: $77.39 -6.09 (-7.30%) : TripAdvisor
FB: $57.71 -3.16 (-5.19%) : Facebook
ILMN: $139.71 -11.97 (-7.89%) : Illumina
PCLN: $1,157.24 -59.79 (-4.91%) : The Priceline Group
LNKD: $158.17 -13.42 (-7.82%) : LinkedIn Corporation Class A
Amazon reported GAAP earnings of $.23 per share for the 2014 first quarter: AMZN Someday, possibly in my lifetime, AMZN will stop spending so much money and actually report a quarterly profit that justifies the current price.
A long term secular bull market started on August 20, 1982 when the S & P 500 rose to 113.02 from 109.16. Volume accelerated during the liftoff. Historical Prices | S&P 500 By the end of 1982, the S & P had risen 28.84%. The closing high before the October 1987 crash, sort of a flash crash in retrospect, was at 334.57 on 8/27/1987. The rise from the 8/19/82 close was 206.49%.
Until I researched that period again, I did not recall that there was only one correction during this bull move prior to 10/19/87 crash. A correction is defined as a 10% to 20% decline.
Ed Yardini has a chart of this move, which shows a 14.4% correction lasting 284 days during 1983-1984, ending in mid-1984. The market would go another 3+ years before the cyclical bear market started in October 1987. (Figure 4 yardeni.com.pdf)
The current bull move started on 3/9/09 with a S & P close at the 676.53 to nearly 1880 now, or about a 178% increase. There have been two corrections in this period, including one that almost hit 20%, plus a "dip" of almost 10%. (Third Chart from the Top: S&P 500 Snapshot)The current rally has certainly been less smooth riding than that August 1982 to October 1987 move.
While no two bull markets will be in identical. the bull move starting in August 1982 has the most similarities to the current market move since Mach 2009.
Bonds:
Short Term to Long Term: Slightly Bearish Based on Interest Rate Normalization
The Difficult Path to Interest Rate Normalization
The bond forecast assumes that inflation will average 2% to 2.25% over the next ten years, the current range bound forecast embodied in the 10 year TIP pricing. If that forecast proves prescient, then the low future low inflation numbers will be okay for bonds after rates normalize.
The Difficult Path to Interest Rate Normalization
The bond forecast assumes that inflation will average 2% to 2.25% over the next ten years, the current range bound forecast embodied in the 10 year TIP pricing. If that forecast proves prescient, then the low future low inflation numbers will be okay for bonds after rates normalize.
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Recent Developments:
The Census Bureau reported that property tax collections rose to $182.8B during the last three months of 2013, topping the peak four years earlier Bloomberg Nashville's property tax revenues rose 13%. I was driving in an area of town last week that I had not seen in about a year. The Bloomberg article has a picture of one of the new buildings under construction in that area, and there are many others just like it nearby.
The Census Bureau reported that sales of new single family home in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, or 14.5% below the February rate. census.gov.pdf The March number was the lowest level in 8 months and was well below the consensus estimate of an annualized rate of 450,000. New home sales remain at disappointing and anemic levels, hovering near the lowest points hit at the peak of prior recessions.
New One Family Houses Sold: United States-St. Louis Fed
March durable goods increased 2.6%, above the consensus forecast of 2%. Excluding transportation, new orders increased by 2%. census.gov.pdf
Chart: Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods- St. Louis Fed
The Census Bureau reported that sales of new single family home in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, or 14.5% below the February rate. census.gov.pdf The March number was the lowest level in 8 months and was well below the consensus estimate of an annualized rate of 450,000. New home sales remain at disappointing and anemic levels, hovering near the lowest points hit at the peak of prior recessions.
New One Family Houses Sold: United States-St. Louis Fed
March durable goods increased 2.6%, above the consensus forecast of 2%. Excluding transportation, new orders increased by 2%. census.gov.pdf
Chart: Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods- St. Louis Fed
It is becoming increasingly clear that Russian special forces are the ones who seized government buildings in eastern Ukraine. Putin and his lap dog Sergey Lavrov deny any control over those Russian forces. NYT
Putin claims that the internet is a CIA project, CBS News. One of the last vestiges of a free press in Putin's Kleptocracy is the blogosphere, and Putin is in the process of silencing that outlet of criticism. (See Washington Post article titled "The end of the Putin mystique")
Putin claims that the internet is a CIA project, CBS News. One of the last vestiges of a free press in Putin's Kleptocracy is the blogosphere, and Putin is in the process of silencing that outlet of criticism. (See Washington Post article titled "The end of the Putin mystique")
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Omega Healthcare (own):
Omega increased its quarterly dividend by 1 cent per share to $.5. This is the seventh consecutive quarterly common dividend increase.
Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. (OHI) Dividend Date & History - NASDAQ.com
At a total cost of $29.85 per share, this recent increase brings the dividend yield up to 6.7%. Item # 2 Bought: 100 OHI at $29.85 (12/23/13 Post)
Last Friday's closing price: OHI: $35.38 +0.07 (+0.20%)
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Zurich Financial (own)
I received the annual dividend for my 100 shares of ZURVY last week:
This is the third annual dividend received since I bought shares. The symbol has changed from ZFSVY to ZURVY since my original purchase: Item # 2 BOUGHT 100 ZFSVY at $24.72 (February 2012). Anyone clicking the symbol link in that old post will not find a quote.
All three dividends have been entirely classified as a return of capital. Zurich is earning the dividend, but is paying it out of capital surplus which causes the ROC classification and also avoids the Swiss withholding tax.
My adjusted cost basis is now down to $19.21 per share:
ZURVY Zurich Insurance Group-OTCMarkets.com
Last Friday's closing price: ZURVY: $28.59 UNC.
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Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB):
Bar Harbor Bankshares announced a 3 for 2 stock split and a 3.3% increase in its dividend. That is the seventh straight quarterly dividend increase. Bar Harbor Bankshares, Inc. (BHB) Dividend Date & History - NASDAQ.com The rate was at $.27 in the 2011 second quarter. The overall increase in three years would be about 23.89%. The post 3 for 2 stock split quarterly payment will be $.223.
Bought 50 BHB at $30 (February 2012)
This will give me 75 shares after the split.
Last Friday's Closing Price: BHB: $36.94 -0.80 (-2.12%)
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Adams Express (ADX)(own 926+ shares)
ADX is one of my largest stock CEF positions. I first bought shares in 1983 and view it as sort of like my old catcher's mitt, something that I will keep. The ADX 10 year annualized total return through 3/31/14 is 7%, based on net asset value, compared to 7.25% for SPY. SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Total Returns That period of course includes the catastrophic bear market period.
ADX was one of the few CEFs formed prior to the 1929 crash that survived that event, probably due to a lack of leverage. J.K. Galbraith summarized what happened to most of them, including the one sponsored by Goldman Sachs, in his readable 1954 book The Great Crash of 1929
For a long time, ADX was led by Douglas Ober who retired back in 2012. The new head honcho is more aggressive.
It would have been almost unthinkable for Ober to buy Facebook shares, but I noted that ADX bought 187,000 FB shares in the 2014 first quarter. ADX quarterly changes_03/31/14.pdf I am not sure that I understand the eliminations of the MET, CAT, and Ebay positions or the significant reduction in GE. The sheer volume of trading activity in the 2014 first quarter is highly unusual from a historical perspective.
In the first quarter, ADX realized $41,897,696 in capital gains or $.45 per share. ADX First _Quarter Report.pdf That is higher per share amount than the total LT capital gain distribution for 2009-2012 and equal to the amount paid in 2013. The annualized portfolio turnover jumped to 63.6% during the first quarter.
I am just monitoring the change in style for now. ADX sells a persistently high discount to net asset value. Two ways to narrow that discount would be to start beating the performance of the S & P 500 index and to become more aggressive in share buybacks at the current discount level.
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Apple (own):
Apple announced a 7 for 1 stock split and a 8% increase in its quarterly dividend to $3.29 per share. SEC Filed Press Release Apple increased the stock buyback authorization by $30B through 2015.
For the fiscal second quarter, Apple reported revenue of $45.6B and a net profit of $10.2B or $11.62 per share. International revenues accounted for 66% of the total. The consensus was for an E.P.S. of $10.17 on revenues of $43.5B. Cash flow for the quarter was reported at $13.5B.
The market liked these developments:
Closing Price 4/24/14: AAPL: $567.77 +43.02 (+8.20%)
Last Friday's Closing Price: AAPL: $571.94 +4.17 (+0.73%)
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MetLife (MET)(own):
MetLife Increases Second Quarter 2014 Common Stock Dividend by 27 Percent
MET is a recent addition that has not done much since my purchase. Bought 50 MET at $51.76 (3/24/14 Post) I noted that the company had been stingy with its dividends, and this increase makes up for some lost ground since 2000. MetLife, Inc. (MET) Dividend History
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Omega Healthcare (own):
Omega increased its quarterly dividend by 1 cent per share to $.5. This is the seventh consecutive quarterly common dividend increase.
Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. (OHI) Dividend Date & History - NASDAQ.com
At a total cost of $29.85 per share, this recent increase brings the dividend yield up to 6.7%. Item # 2 Bought: 100 OHI at $29.85 (12/23/13 Post)
Last Friday's closing price: OHI: $35.38 +0.07 (+0.20%)
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Zurich Financial (own)
I received the annual dividend for my 100 shares of ZURVY last week:
This is the third annual dividend received since I bought shares. The symbol has changed from ZFSVY to ZURVY since my original purchase: Item # 2 BOUGHT 100 ZFSVY at $24.72 (February 2012). Anyone clicking the symbol link in that old post will not find a quote.
All three dividends have been entirely classified as a return of capital. Zurich is earning the dividend, but is paying it out of capital surplus which causes the ROC classification and also avoids the Swiss withholding tax.
My adjusted cost basis is now down to $19.21 per share:
ZURVY Zurich Insurance Group-OTCMarkets.com
Last Friday's closing price: ZURVY: $28.59 UNC.
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Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB):
Bar Harbor Bankshares announced a 3 for 2 stock split and a 3.3% increase in its dividend. That is the seventh straight quarterly dividend increase. Bar Harbor Bankshares, Inc. (BHB) Dividend Date & History - NASDAQ.com The rate was at $.27 in the 2011 second quarter. The overall increase in three years would be about 23.89%. The post 3 for 2 stock split quarterly payment will be $.223.
Bought 50 BHB at $30 (February 2012)
This will give me 75 shares after the split.
Last Friday's Closing Price: BHB: $36.94 -0.80 (-2.12%)
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Adams Express (ADX)(own 926+ shares)
ADX is one of my largest stock CEF positions. I first bought shares in 1983 and view it as sort of like my old catcher's mitt, something that I will keep. The ADX 10 year annualized total return through 3/31/14 is 7%, based on net asset value, compared to 7.25% for SPY. SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Total Returns That period of course includes the catastrophic bear market period.
ADX was one of the few CEFs formed prior to the 1929 crash that survived that event, probably due to a lack of leverage. J.K. Galbraith summarized what happened to most of them, including the one sponsored by Goldman Sachs, in his readable 1954 book The Great Crash of 1929
For a long time, ADX was led by Douglas Ober who retired back in 2012. The new head honcho is more aggressive.
It would have been almost unthinkable for Ober to buy Facebook shares, but I noted that ADX bought 187,000 FB shares in the 2014 first quarter. ADX quarterly changes_03/31/14.pdf I am not sure that I understand the eliminations of the MET, CAT, and Ebay positions or the significant reduction in GE. The sheer volume of trading activity in the 2014 first quarter is highly unusual from a historical perspective.
In the first quarter, ADX realized $41,897,696 in capital gains or $.45 per share. ADX First _Quarter Report.pdf That is higher per share amount than the total LT capital gain distribution for 2009-2012 and equal to the amount paid in 2013. The annualized portfolio turnover jumped to 63.6% during the first quarter.
I am just monitoring the change in style for now. ADX sells a persistently high discount to net asset value. Two ways to narrow that discount would be to start beating the performance of the S & P 500 index and to become more aggressive in share buybacks at the current discount level.
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Apple (own):
Apple announced a 7 for 1 stock split and a 8% increase in its quarterly dividend to $3.29 per share. SEC Filed Press Release Apple increased the stock buyback authorization by $30B through 2015.
For the fiscal second quarter, Apple reported revenue of $45.6B and a net profit of $10.2B or $11.62 per share. International revenues accounted for 66% of the total. The consensus was for an E.P.S. of $10.17 on revenues of $43.5B. Cash flow for the quarter was reported at $13.5B.
The market liked these developments:
Closing Price 4/24/14: AAPL: $567.77 +43.02 (+8.20%)
Last Friday's Closing Price: AAPL: $571.94 +4.17 (+0.73%)
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MetLife (MET)(own):
MetLife Increases Second Quarter 2014 Common Stock Dividend by 27 Percent
MET is a recent addition that has not done much since my purchase. Bought 50 MET at $51.76 (3/24/14 Post) I noted that the company had been stingy with its dividends, and this increase makes up for some lost ground since 2000. MetLife, Inc. (MET) Dividend History
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1. Paired Trade to Increase Cash Flow: Sold 50 MSPRA at $20.22 and Bought 50 FPF at $22.07 in Roth IRA (see Disclaimer)
Snapshot of Trades:
Bought:
 |
| 2014 Roth IRA Bought 50 FPF at $22.07 |
Sold
 |
| 2014 Roth IRA Sold 50 MSPRA at $20.22 |
Snapshot of MSPRA Profit: The profit was negligible.
Bought 50 MSPRA at $19.25-ROTH IRA (September 2013)
Prior Trades MSPRA: I still own shares in a taxable account. Those shares were bought in September 2011: Bought 50 MSPRA at $16.6 (September 2011). As noted below, I also sold 100 MSPRA shares held in a taxable account that were bought back in March 2012 as part of a paired trade with FPF also being the buy part of that paired trade: Added 100 MSPRA at $18.9 (March 2012)
The largest gain was on a 100 share lot purchased in 2009: Bought 100 MSPRA at $12.88 in May 2009-SOLD 100 MSPRA at 21.43 (January 2010)
Bought 50 MSPRA at $15.7 (May 2010)-Sold MSPRA at $18.50 (July 2010)
Bought 50 MSPRA at 19.71 (January 2011)-Pared 50 of 250 MSPRA at $20.8 (January 2013)
Added 50 MSPRA at 19.54 (January 2011)-Sold 50 of 200 MSPRA at $22.04 (March 2013)
Total Realized Gains MSPRA=$1,203.08 ($1,168.6 in prior trades, snapshots at Item # 5, Bought 50 MSPRA at $19.25-ROTH IRA)
Prior Trades FPF: None
Security Description for FPF: The First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF ) is a leveraged CEF that invests in bonds and preferred stocks with the objective of generating current income and managing duration of between 3 to 8 years excluding the duration adjustment for leverage which increases duration.
As of 2/28/14, the fund claims to have a weighted average duration of 4.46 years.
The fund is currently paying a monthly distribution of $.1525 per share. Distributions At a total cost per share of $22.07, and assuming a continuation of that rate which is in no way assured, the yield would be about 8.29%.
First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund Declares Its Monthly Common Share Distribution of $0.1525 Per Share for May
CEFConnect Page for FPF
Data on Date of Trade 4/8/14:
Net Asset Value Per Share: $24.13
Market Price Per Share: $22.11
Discount: -8.37%
The fund is about one year old and the average discount since inception was -9.88% as of 4/8/14.
Credit quality as of 2/28/14:
Fact Sheet
2013 Tax Information
2013 Annual Report (period ending 10/31/13)
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| 2014 ROTH IRA MSPRA 50 Shares +$34.48 |
Prior Trades MSPRA: I still own shares in a taxable account. Those shares were bought in September 2011: Bought 50 MSPRA at $16.6 (September 2011). As noted below, I also sold 100 MSPRA shares held in a taxable account that were bought back in March 2012 as part of a paired trade with FPF also being the buy part of that paired trade: Added 100 MSPRA at $18.9 (March 2012)
The largest gain was on a 100 share lot purchased in 2009: Bought 100 MSPRA at $12.88 in May 2009-SOLD 100 MSPRA at 21.43 (January 2010)
Bought 50 MSPRA at $15.7 (May 2010)-Sold MSPRA at $18.50 (July 2010)
Bought 50 MSPRA at 19.71 (January 2011)-Pared 50 of 250 MSPRA at $20.8 (January 2013)
Added 50 MSPRA at 19.54 (January 2011)-Sold 50 of 200 MSPRA at $22.04 (March 2013)
Total Realized Gains MSPRA=$1,203.08 ($1,168.6 in prior trades, snapshots at Item # 5, Bought 50 MSPRA at $19.25-ROTH IRA)
Prior Trades FPF: None
Security Description for FPF: The First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF ) is a leveraged CEF that invests in bonds and preferred stocks with the objective of generating current income and managing duration of between 3 to 8 years excluding the duration adjustment for leverage which increases duration.
As of 2/28/14, the fund claims to have a weighted average duration of 4.46 years.
The fund is currently paying a monthly distribution of $.1525 per share. Distributions At a total cost per share of $22.07, and assuming a continuation of that rate which is in no way assured, the yield would be about 8.29%.
First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund Declares Its Monthly Common Share Distribution of $0.1525 Per Share for May
CEFConnect Page for FPF
Data on Date of Trade 4/8/14:
Net Asset Value Per Share: $24.13
Market Price Per Share: $22.11
Discount: -8.37%
The fund is about one year old and the average discount since inception was -9.88% as of 4/8/14.
Credit quality as of 2/28/14:
Fact Sheet
2013 Tax Information
2013 Annual Report (period ending 10/31/13)
Fund Sponsor's Website: First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF)(expense ratio excluding leverage costs is viewed as high at 1.24%; weighted average duration shown at 4.46 years as of 2/28/14)
Security Description for MSPRA: The Morgan Stanley Non-Cumulative Preferred Series A (MS.PA) is an equity preferred stock that pays non-cumulative and qualified dividends at the greater of 4% or .7% above the 3 month Libor rate on a $25 par value. Prospectus The current coupon is the minimum 4% rate which is likely to remain the applicable coupon for two or possibly more years. At a $20.22 total cost per share, the yield would be about 4.95% currently.
Rationale: The current yield differential between MSPRA and FPF is high at about 3.34%, assuming the total cost per share numbers shown above.
I would view it as impossible to predict which security will outperform on price. A continued decline in interest rates would probably favor FPF.
Risks: FBF has the usual risks associated with leveraged bond CEFs that include interest rate, lost opportunity, credit and normal CEF risks. It is always frustrating when the discount to net asset value remains relatively stable and the market price sinks after purchase creating a wider discount, or the discount widens substantially more than the percentage decrease in net asset value. The potential benefit is that the discount may decrease after purchase as the net asset value per share goes up.
Last Friday's Closing Prices:
MS-PA: $20.40 +0.03 (+0.15%)
FPF: $22.48 +0.03 (+0.13%)
2. Paired Trade in Satellite Taxable Account: Sold 100 MSPRA and Bought 100 FPF at $22.12 (see Disclaimer):
This is an identical paired trade to the one described above, except this paired trade occurred in a satellite taxable and involved more shares.
Snapshot of Paired Trade:
Snapshot of MSPRA Profit:
Added 100 MSPRA at $18.9 (March 2012)
Snapshot of MSPRA History in this Satellite Taxable Account:
The rationale is to increase income generation. In the event of a market correction, and assuming FBF goes up in value, this position could be a source of funds for the purchase of a common stock.
Total Realized Gains MSPRA: $1,320.06 ($116.98 this trade, see above)
3. Added 50 NMFC at $14.2-Roth IRA (see Disclaimer): This BDC declined in price below net asset value per share after announcing a share issuance. As of 12/31/13, net asset value per share was reported at $14.38, up from $14.06 as of 12/31/12. 10-k at page 68 That was a nice jump and is certainly far better than the static numbers being produced by Prospect Capital.
Snapshot of Trade:
Closing Price on Day of Trade: NMFC: $14.21 -0.36 (-2.47%)
Security Description: The New Mountain Finance Corp. (NMFC ) is a BDC that focuses on "acyclical defensive growth" companies. As of 12/31/13, this BDC had investments in 59 companies with a weighted average yield to maturity of approximately 10.6%.
A list of the portfolio investments can be found starting at page 106 of the 2013 Annual Report, 10-k.
On the day of my purchase, the company closed an underwritten offering of 3.5M shares at $14.57 per share exclusive of offering expenses. The underwriters have 30 days to buy up to an additional 525,000 shares. New Mountain Finance Corporation Announces Pricing of 3,500,000 Shares of Common Stock The price to the public was $14.3. Prospectus
Prior Trades: I currently own 50 shares in another Roth IRA account: Item # 4 Bought 50 NMFC at $15.03 in the Roth IRA (5/29/13).
I own 100 shares in a taxable account. Item # 5 Bought 100 NMFC at $14.28 (6/22/13 Post)
A one year chart reveals a lot of chop between a $14 to $15.5 channel: NMFC Interactive Chart The two year chart shows more of the same, except that the chop was between $13.5-$14 during April-July 2012.
Last Earnings Report: For the 2013 4th quarter, New Mountain reported a net asset value per share of $14.38. Debt/Equity was shown at .63x. "Pro-forma adjusted net investment income" was reported at $.34 for the quarter and $1.41 for the year. SEC Filed Press Release First lien debt is shown at 49.6% of the total with second lien debt at 42%.
While the term "lien" gives some comfort, second lien debt can be decimated in a BK, as the first lien debt owners struggle to recover some percentage of their principal far less than 100%. I mentioned one second lien debt issue that I bought once that probably attached to nothing more than air around the firm's HQ given the size of the first lien debt and the losses that ultimately led to a BK.
Rationale: As with all other BDCs, my goal is to harvest an annualized total return of 10%. I can accomplish that objective by collecting 4 dividend payments and harvesting a relatively small profit on the shares.
The current quarterly dividend is $.34 per share. New Mountain Finance Corporation (NMFC) Dividend Date & History - NASDAQ.com At that rate, the yield at a total cost of $14.2 per share is about 9.58%.
Risks: I disfavor BDCs for a variety of reasons, but will buy them in small amounts for their income generation. New Mountain discusses the many risks incident to its business starting at page 25 of its 2013 Annual Report: 10-k Anyone who owns a BDC needs to read the risk summary found in the Annual Reports filed with the SEC.
Future Buys and Sells: While I have no current target price, I would likely sell the 50 share lot bought at $15.03 last May whenever I have a profit. Alternatively, I may sell the 100 shares held in the taxable account, bought at $14.28 last June whenever the market price exceeds net asset asset value by 5%. Assuming a net asset value of $14.38, a 5% premium would equate to about $15.1. I might want a higher price, such as $15.2, to pay for the brokerage commission.
Last Friday's Closing Price: NMFC: $14.59 +0.03 (+0.21%)
4. Sold 50 AMJ at $47.49-Roth IRA (see Disclaimer): This one was held in another ROTH IRA account than the one referenced above in connection with the NMFC purchase. This is just another example of small ball play in the IRAs.
Snapshot of Trade:
Snapshot of Profit:
Snapshot of Roth IRA History:
Security Description: JPMorgan Alerian MLP ETN is, as indicated an Exchange Traded Note (ETN) that will attempt to track the Alerian MLP Index before fees and expenses.
Prior Trade: Item # 6 Sold 50 AMJ at $47.99-ROTH IRA (May 2013)(snapshot of profit=$490.94)-Item # 3 Bought Roth IRA: ETN AMJ at $37.89 (12/19/12 Post)
Total Realized Trading Gains=$569.39
Rationale: I am raising some cash by selling lower yielding securities. Hopefully, better opportunities will arise later in the year, including a possible repurchase of 50 AMJ shares at a lower price.
Future Buys: I am in a trading mode for this security. I will consider buying back 50 shares when and if the price falls below my last purchase price.
Last Friday's Closing Price: AMJ: $47.78 -0.37 (-0.77%)
5. Sold 110 of the Stock CEF STK at $15.65 (see Disclaimer): I sold these shares due to poor performance, to harvest a profit while one still existed and to raise cash in anticipation of redeployment later this year.
Snapshot of Trade:
Snapshot of Profit:
I received $139.15 in dividends.
Prior Trades: I still own 106+ shares in the Roth IRA, where I have been reinvesting the dividend payments. Bought 100 STK at $16.12-ROTH IRA (September 2012). The current quarterly dividend is $.4625 per share. Columbia Seligman Premium Technology Growth Fund Announces First Quarter Distribution: 9.25% Annual Rate for IPO Investors That would equate to about $277.5 in distributions used to purchase more shares in that account.
Security Description: The Columbia Seligman Premium Technology Growth Fund is a CEF that invests in technology stocks. I have not been impressed with its performance.
Data on Day of Trade 4/11/14:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $15.91
Closing Market Price: $15.57
Discount: -2.14%
Discount at $15.65= -1.63%
Average 1 year Discount: -6.26%
CEFConnect Page for STK
STK Page at Morningstar (3 year average total return calculated at 3.07% as of 4/11/14)
Rationale: I decided to raise cash and to fire the managers of this fund, at least for the shares held in the taxable account.
This security had actually gone up some from a March 28, 2014 close at $15.61, when the closing net asset value was $16.45. The net asset value had shrunk to $16.14 per share on 4/10/14, the day before I sold this 110 share lot. The net asset value declined further on Friday 4/14, falling $.25 per share to $15.91, and the discount at my sale's price had narrowed to just -1.63%.
Last Friday's Closing Price: STK: $16.22 0.00 (0.00%)
6. Sold 50 Wharf Holdings at $14.51 (The $500 to $1,000 Flyers Basket Strategy)(see Disclaimer): This turned into a quick flip. I bought the shares on 3/21/14. The primary rationale was to raise cash in anticipation of a correction, which is admittedly slow to materialize, or to redeploy the proceeds into a higher yielding security which will increase my cash flow available for future investment.
A large number of trades over the past several weeks have focused on creating more cash flow without dipping into my existing cash allocation which has already been used as a source of funds for the sector rotation into REITs.
Snapshot of Trade:
Snapshot of Position Before Trade:
Snapshot of Profit:
Bought 50 Wharf Holdings at $12.2 (4/1/14 Post)
Security Description: Wharf (Holdings) Ltd. (4:HKG) is a Hong Kong based conglomerate. I bought and sold the U.S. listed ADR traded on the pink sheet exchange: WARFY Wharf Holdings Ltd.
Last Friday's Closing Price: WARFY: $14.02 +0.15 (+1.08%)
7. Sold 163+ YMLP at $18.01 (see Disclaimer):
Snapshot of Trade:
Snapshot of Profit:
While YMLP paid a good dividend, the entire amount was treated as a ROC. So the amount shown above is in effect my total return of a $2,753.19 adjusted cost basis or just 6.33%.
Security Description: Yorkville High Income MLP (YML) is my last MLP ETF. I will not be buying another one.
The securities owned by the fund have done better even accounting for the expense ratio of the fund. What has caused under performance is the requirement that an ETF, having a weighting of 25%+ in MLPs, must pay and accrue taxes which has significantly hurt total returns. WSJ; Motley Fool; YMLP Tax Accrual - Yorkville ETF Advisors; Prospectus at pp. 5-6: Yorkville_Prospectus.pdf
This long article at ETF.Com may be one of the best discussing the various advantages and disadvantages of MLP ETFs and ETNs.
Rationale: I now regard MLP ETFs as an unsatisfactory vehicle for owning MLPs. That is just my opinion.
Future Buys: I will not be buying another MLP ETF due to the under performance issues caused by the aforementioned tax issue. I will own an ETF that avoids the tax issue by keeping the MLP ownership to less than 25% of assets.
Last Friday's Closing Price: YMLP: $18.09 -0.04 (-0.22%)
8. Bought 50 ARMF at $21.8-Roth IRA (see Disclaimer):
Snapshot of Trade:
Security Description: The Ares Multi-Strategy Credit Fund (ARMF) is a new leveraged closed end fund that seeks to provide an "attractive level of total return" by "dynamically" investing in a broad range of credit investments, including senior loans, junk bonds and structured credit.
SEC Form N-Q: Holdings as of 1/31/14
CEFConnect Page for ARMF
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 10/31/13)
The shares went ex dividend for the monthly distribution on 4/16, shortly after my purchase.
Data From Day of Trade 4/14/14:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $24.15
Closing Market Price: $21.76
Discount: -9.9%
CEFConnect has the first trades occurring on 11/15/13. The initial public offering occurred on 10/31/13 at $25. The closing market NAV per share on 11/15/13 was $23.7, with a market price close at $22.3, creating a -5.91% discount. Since that time, the market price has declined, the net asset value per share has risen unadjusted for the dividend payments, and the discount to net asset value had increased by 67% from -5.91% to 9.9% on the date of purchase.
Historical discount information is irrelevant since this is a relatively new CEF.
Sponsor's Website: Ares Publicly Traded Credit Funds: Overview
March 2014 Fact Card: ares (effective duration 1.27 years; holdings 131; 43.9% fixed coupon and 53.3 Floating)
Prior Trades: None
Rationale: This will sound like a broken record, but I am simply trying to create additional tax free income generation in the ROTH IRA by selectively buying higher yielding securities and selling lower yielding ones at a profit.
Risks: The track record since launch is good but the fund has experienced an unfortunate CEF risk aptly demonstrated by a rise in net asset value per share and a significant decline in the share price. It is really impossible to say when that will stop and reverse course. Credit risk is also pronounced, but interest rate risk with the short duration is relatively tame. There are certainly risks involved in using leverage to buy junk credits.
Future Buys and Sells: I will not buy more shares in a retirement account due to the credit risk issue. I may average down by buying a 50 share lot in a taxable account.
Last Friday's Closing Price: ARMF: $22.05 0.00 (0.00%)
9. Borden Chemical Bond Redemption:
Snapshot:
I realized a small gain on this one. I am content in avoiding a loss and receiving that 8.375% coupon for about 3 years. For most of my ownership period, I had an unrealized loss in this bond. Bond Detail
Profit Snapshot:
Bought 1 Borden Chemical 8.375% Bond Maturing 4/15/2016 at 96.85
Rationale: The current yield differential between MSPRA and FPF is high at about 3.34%, assuming the total cost per share numbers shown above.
I would view it as impossible to predict which security will outperform on price. A continued decline in interest rates would probably favor FPF.
Risks: FBF has the usual risks associated with leveraged bond CEFs that include interest rate, lost opportunity, credit and normal CEF risks. It is always frustrating when the discount to net asset value remains relatively stable and the market price sinks after purchase creating a wider discount, or the discount widens substantially more than the percentage decrease in net asset value. The potential benefit is that the discount may decrease after purchase as the net asset value per share goes up.
Last Friday's Closing Prices:
MS-PA: $20.40 +0.03 (+0.15%)
FPF: $22.48 +0.03 (+0.13%)
2. Paired Trade in Satellite Taxable Account: Sold 100 MSPRA and Bought 100 FPF at $22.12 (see Disclaimer):
This is an identical paired trade to the one described above, except this paired trade occurred in a satellite taxable and involved more shares.
Snapshot of Paired Trade:
 |
| Bought 100 FPF at $22.12 and Sold 100 MSPRA at $20.21 |
 |
| 2014 MSPRA 100 Shares +$116.98 |
Snapshot of MSPRA History in this Satellite Taxable Account:
 |
| Qualified Dividend Payments Incorrectly Classified as Interest by Vanguard |
Total Realized Gains MSPRA: $1,320.06 ($116.98 this trade, see above)
3. Added 50 NMFC at $14.2-Roth IRA (see Disclaimer): This BDC declined in price below net asset value per share after announcing a share issuance. As of 12/31/13, net asset value per share was reported at $14.38, up from $14.06 as of 12/31/12. 10-k at page 68 That was a nice jump and is certainly far better than the static numbers being produced by Prospect Capital.
Snapshot of Trade:
 |
| 2014 ROTH IRA Bought 50 NMFC at $14.2 |
Security Description: The New Mountain Finance Corp. (NMFC ) is a BDC that focuses on "acyclical defensive growth" companies. As of 12/31/13, this BDC had investments in 59 companies with a weighted average yield to maturity of approximately 10.6%.
A list of the portfolio investments can be found starting at page 106 of the 2013 Annual Report, 10-k.
On the day of my purchase, the company closed an underwritten offering of 3.5M shares at $14.57 per share exclusive of offering expenses. The underwriters have 30 days to buy up to an additional 525,000 shares. New Mountain Finance Corporation Announces Pricing of 3,500,000 Shares of Common Stock The price to the public was $14.3. Prospectus
Prior Trades: I currently own 50 shares in another Roth IRA account: Item # 4 Bought 50 NMFC at $15.03 in the Roth IRA (5/29/13).
I own 100 shares in a taxable account. Item # 5 Bought 100 NMFC at $14.28 (6/22/13 Post)
A one year chart reveals a lot of chop between a $14 to $15.5 channel: NMFC Interactive Chart The two year chart shows more of the same, except that the chop was between $13.5-$14 during April-July 2012.
Last Earnings Report: For the 2013 4th quarter, New Mountain reported a net asset value per share of $14.38. Debt/Equity was shown at .63x. "Pro-forma adjusted net investment income" was reported at $.34 for the quarter and $1.41 for the year. SEC Filed Press Release First lien debt is shown at 49.6% of the total with second lien debt at 42%.
While the term "lien" gives some comfort, second lien debt can be decimated in a BK, as the first lien debt owners struggle to recover some percentage of their principal far less than 100%. I mentioned one second lien debt issue that I bought once that probably attached to nothing more than air around the firm's HQ given the size of the first lien debt and the losses that ultimately led to a BK.
Rationale: As with all other BDCs, my goal is to harvest an annualized total return of 10%. I can accomplish that objective by collecting 4 dividend payments and harvesting a relatively small profit on the shares.
The current quarterly dividend is $.34 per share. New Mountain Finance Corporation (NMFC) Dividend Date & History - NASDAQ.com At that rate, the yield at a total cost of $14.2 per share is about 9.58%.
Risks: I disfavor BDCs for a variety of reasons, but will buy them in small amounts for their income generation. New Mountain discusses the many risks incident to its business starting at page 25 of its 2013 Annual Report: 10-k Anyone who owns a BDC needs to read the risk summary found in the Annual Reports filed with the SEC.
Future Buys and Sells: While I have no current target price, I would likely sell the 50 share lot bought at $15.03 last May whenever I have a profit. Alternatively, I may sell the 100 shares held in the taxable account, bought at $14.28 last June whenever the market price exceeds net asset asset value by 5%. Assuming a net asset value of $14.38, a 5% premium would equate to about $15.1. I might want a higher price, such as $15.2, to pay for the brokerage commission.
Last Friday's Closing Price: NMFC: $14.59 +0.03 (+0.21%)
4. Sold 50 AMJ at $47.49-Roth IRA (see Disclaimer): This one was held in another ROTH IRA account than the one referenced above in connection with the NMFC purchase. This is just another example of small ball play in the IRAs.
Snapshot of Trade:
Snapshot of Profit:
 |
| 2014 AMJ Sold 50 Shares +$78.45 |
Security Description: JPMorgan Alerian MLP ETN is, as indicated an Exchange Traded Note (ETN) that will attempt to track the Alerian MLP Index before fees and expenses.
Prior Trade: Item # 6 Sold 50 AMJ at $47.99-ROTH IRA (May 2013)(snapshot of profit=$490.94)-Item # 3 Bought Roth IRA: ETN AMJ at $37.89 (12/19/12 Post)
Total Realized Trading Gains=$569.39
Rationale: I am raising some cash by selling lower yielding securities. Hopefully, better opportunities will arise later in the year, including a possible repurchase of 50 AMJ shares at a lower price.
Future Buys: I am in a trading mode for this security. I will consider buying back 50 shares when and if the price falls below my last purchase price.
Last Friday's Closing Price: AMJ: $47.78 -0.37 (-0.77%)
5. Sold 110 of the Stock CEF STK at $15.65 (see Disclaimer): I sold these shares due to poor performance, to harvest a profit while one still existed and to raise cash in anticipation of redeployment later this year.
Snapshot of Trade:
 |
| 2014 Sold 110 STK at $15.65 |
Snapshot of Profit:
 |
| 2014 STK 110 Shares +139.81 |
Prior Trades: I still own 106+ shares in the Roth IRA, where I have been reinvesting the dividend payments. Bought 100 STK at $16.12-ROTH IRA (September 2012). The current quarterly dividend is $.4625 per share. Columbia Seligman Premium Technology Growth Fund Announces First Quarter Distribution: 9.25% Annual Rate for IPO Investors That would equate to about $277.5 in distributions used to purchase more shares in that account.
Security Description: The Columbia Seligman Premium Technology Growth Fund is a CEF that invests in technology stocks. I have not been impressed with its performance.
Data on Day of Trade 4/11/14:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $15.91
Closing Market Price: $15.57
Discount: -2.14%
Discount at $15.65= -1.63%
Average 1 year Discount: -6.26%
CEFConnect Page for STK
STK Page at Morningstar (3 year average total return calculated at 3.07% as of 4/11/14)
Rationale: I decided to raise cash and to fire the managers of this fund, at least for the shares held in the taxable account.
This security had actually gone up some from a March 28, 2014 close at $15.61, when the closing net asset value was $16.45. The net asset value had shrunk to $16.14 per share on 4/10/14, the day before I sold this 110 share lot. The net asset value declined further on Friday 4/14, falling $.25 per share to $15.91, and the discount at my sale's price had narrowed to just -1.63%.
Last Friday's Closing Price: STK: $16.22 0.00 (0.00%)
6. Sold 50 Wharf Holdings at $14.51 (The $500 to $1,000 Flyers Basket Strategy)(see Disclaimer): This turned into a quick flip. I bought the shares on 3/21/14. The primary rationale was to raise cash in anticipation of a correction, which is admittedly slow to materialize, or to redeploy the proceeds into a higher yielding security which will increase my cash flow available for future investment.
A large number of trades over the past several weeks have focused on creating more cash flow without dipping into my existing cash allocation which has already been used as a source of funds for the sector rotation into REITs.
Snapshot of Trade:
 |
| 2014 Sold 50 WARFY at $14.51 |
Snapshot of Position Before Trade:
Snapshot of Profit:
 |
| 2014 WARFY 50 Shares $99.68 |
Security Description: Wharf (Holdings) Ltd. (4:HKG) is a Hong Kong based conglomerate. I bought and sold the U.S. listed ADR traded on the pink sheet exchange: WARFY Wharf Holdings Ltd.
Last Friday's Closing Price: WARFY: $14.02 +0.15 (+1.08%)
7. Sold 163+ YMLP at $18.01 (see Disclaimer):
Snapshot of Trade:
Snapshot of Profit:
 |
| 2014 YMLP 163+ Shares= $174.28 |
Security Description: Yorkville High Income MLP (YML) is my last MLP ETF. I will not be buying another one.
The securities owned by the fund have done better even accounting for the expense ratio of the fund. What has caused under performance is the requirement that an ETF, having a weighting of 25%+ in MLPs, must pay and accrue taxes which has significantly hurt total returns. WSJ; Motley Fool; YMLP Tax Accrual - Yorkville ETF Advisors; Prospectus at pp. 5-6: Yorkville_Prospectus.pdf
This long article at ETF.Com may be one of the best discussing the various advantages and disadvantages of MLP ETFs and ETNs.
Rationale: I now regard MLP ETFs as an unsatisfactory vehicle for owning MLPs. That is just my opinion.
Future Buys: I will not be buying another MLP ETF due to the under performance issues caused by the aforementioned tax issue. I will own an ETF that avoids the tax issue by keeping the MLP ownership to less than 25% of assets.
Last Friday's Closing Price: YMLP: $18.09 -0.04 (-0.22%)
8. Bought 50 ARMF at $21.8-Roth IRA (see Disclaimer):
Snapshot of Trade:
 |
| 2014 ROTH IRA Bought 50 ARMF at $21.8 |
SEC Form N-Q: Holdings as of 1/31/14
CEFConnect Page for ARMF
Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 10/31/13)
The shares went ex dividend for the monthly distribution on 4/16, shortly after my purchase.
Data From Day of Trade 4/14/14:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $24.15
Closing Market Price: $21.76
Discount: -9.9%
CEFConnect has the first trades occurring on 11/15/13. The initial public offering occurred on 10/31/13 at $25. The closing market NAV per share on 11/15/13 was $23.7, with a market price close at $22.3, creating a -5.91% discount. Since that time, the market price has declined, the net asset value per share has risen unadjusted for the dividend payments, and the discount to net asset value had increased by 67% from -5.91% to 9.9% on the date of purchase.
Historical discount information is irrelevant since this is a relatively new CEF.
Sponsor's Website: Ares Publicly Traded Credit Funds: Overview
March 2014 Fact Card: ares (effective duration 1.27 years; holdings 131; 43.9% fixed coupon and 53.3 Floating)
Prior Trades: None
Rationale: This will sound like a broken record, but I am simply trying to create additional tax free income generation in the ROTH IRA by selectively buying higher yielding securities and selling lower yielding ones at a profit.
Risks: The track record since launch is good but the fund has experienced an unfortunate CEF risk aptly demonstrated by a rise in net asset value per share and a significant decline in the share price. It is really impossible to say when that will stop and reverse course. Credit risk is also pronounced, but interest rate risk with the short duration is relatively tame. There are certainly risks involved in using leverage to buy junk credits.
Future Buys and Sells: I will not buy more shares in a retirement account due to the credit risk issue. I may average down by buying a 50 share lot in a taxable account.
Last Friday's Closing Price: ARMF: $22.05 0.00 (0.00%)
9. Borden Chemical Bond Redemption:
Snapshot:
I realized a small gain on this one. I am content in avoiding a loss and receiving that 8.375% coupon for about 3 years. For most of my ownership period, I had an unrealized loss in this bond. Bond Detail
Profit Snapshot:
Bought 1 Borden Chemical 8.375% Bond Maturing 4/15/2016 at 96.85
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