Thursday, April 29, 2010

Bought 50 EUO at 21.73/ Bought 100 CBO:TO at 20.4 & 100 CPD:TO at 16.09/Sold LTs ACET & MWA/Bought 100 PEO-24.61/STD MYP SUSQ/Bought 50 HCBK at 13.27


A few readers are interested in this table, and it has to be clicked to be readable. This table reflects recent transactions in the regional bank basket strategy, including yesterday's purchases and the recent disposal of SNV. For stocks where there has been more than one purchase, I use a weighted average cost and the last transaction date as the trade date. I may not post this table again. I am tempted to take some profits in those names where the dividend is just 1 cent per quarter. LB wants to sell all of the names in Category 1.

If my count is correct, this basket now has 38 names. The value fell a few hundred dollars from my last post of this table.

In keeping with the current policy of attempting to appease the LB when adding a new name to the regional bank basket, two Lottery Tickets were sold yesterday.  MWA was sold at $5.61 and ACET at $6.82, both for good percentage gains. Bought 50 ACET at 5.2-LT Bought 50 ACET at 5.2-LT

1. Bought 50 HCBK at $13.27 (Cat 2- Regional Bank Stocks) Hudson City has fallen some after reporting earnings a few days ago. Apparently, the market was not pleased with the non-performing loans increasing to 2.32% of total loans and a small decline in the net interest margin to 2.2%. Hudson City Bancorp, did report diluted earnings per share of 30 cents. The total risk based capital ratio was 21.24% as of 3/31/2010.

The consensus estimate is for $1.16 in earnings in 2010 and $1.29 in 2011.

This article from TheStreet.com attempts to make the case that Hudson is a standout value among regional bank and thrift stocks.

As a result of the recent price decline, the yield at a total cost of $13.27 is around 4.5%.


2. Bought 50 PBIB at $14.10 ( Cat 2-Regional Bank Strategy)(see Disclaimer): I jettisoned Porter Bancorp at 14.7 as a delayed reaction to its 2009 4th quarter report which was viewed unfavorably as to its timing and content. Item # 6 PBIB I decided to re-enter the position after reviewing its 2010 1st quarter report, plus my positive view of its dividend yield at my cost which is close to 5.67%: Porter Bancorp Inc, PBIB Stock Quote

Porter reported 30 cents per diluted share in earnings. Based on the information at Reuters.com, this beat the consensus estimate by seven cents. The provision for loan losses was 3 million. NPLs decreased during the 1st quarter by 24.4 million compared to the Q/E 12/31/2009. Net interest margin increased 30 basis points to 3.32%. The allowance for loan losses to NPLs is only 43.9, which I view as a potential negative. And the NPLs to total loans is very high at 4.44%. The ratios still look okay, with the total risk based capital ratio at 14.12%, the tier 1 risk-based capital at 12.2%, and the leverage ratio at 9.24%, all as of 2/31/2010 and in excess of the minimum levels for well capitalized banks.

The current consensus estimate for earnings in 2010 is $1.28 and $1.77 in 2011.: PBIB: Analyst Estimates for Porter Bancorp, Inc.

3. MYP (OWN): This principal protected note was ex distribution yesterday for its annual guaranteed payment of $30 for 100 shares. Bought 100 MYP at $10.12 This will be shown at the WSJ.com dividend page until late this afternoon.

4. Bought 100 CBO.TO AT 20.4 CAD and 100 shares of CPD.TO at 16.09 CAD (see Disclaimer): These purchases are part of my ongoing effort to achieve some yield on my Canadian dollar position. I am willing to accept the currency risks inherent in owning securities denominated in Canadian dollars, realizing that there will be many times when an adverse currency exchange will wipe out the value of the dividends paid by securities whose distributions are paid to me in the Canadian currency, until that change reverses. The Canadian dollar and the U.S. dollar are near parity now. Since I am a long term holder of Canadian dollars, I am not personally concerned about changes in the exchange rates, which will cause significant fluctuations of the securities owed by me and priced in Canadian dollars. I am more interested in just earning a return on my Canadian dollar position, which led me to the purchases of 4 Claymore ETFs traded on the Toronto exchange.

One purchase yesterday was the Claymore 1-5 Yr Laddered Corporate Bond ETF ( CBO). For this kind of buy, I have some credit and interest rate risk, but view the currency risk to be more important. The corporate bonds in this ETF appear to be largely from blue chip Canadian companies. Claymore 1-5 Yr Laddered Corporate Bond ETF - HOLDINGS. The portfolio is diversified by industry sector and by the number of bonds (25). Personally I would like to see about 10 to 15 more. The management fee is .25%. I am protected in some measure from interest rate risks due to the short duration of the bonds and the roll in maturities. Dividends are paid quarterly. The current yield is around 4.7%.

The other purchase yesterday was the Claymore S&P/TSX CDN Preferred Share ETF (CPD). This one has 66 securities currently. The distribution yield is shown to be 5.21% the the price paid yesterday. The management fee is .45%. Dividends are paid quarterly. This is the link to the holdings: Claymore S&P/TSX CDN Preferred Share ETF - CPD - HOLDINGS I suspect that these preferred stocks are what I would call equity preferred, but have not confirmed it. I base that observation on Claymore's description of them. The top holding is a TransCanada Series 1 preferred stock which trades on the Toronto exchange: TRP-PA.TO I do not know whether or not the dividends will be taxed to me as qualified dividends, and possibly I will know the answer to that question early next year. This particular ETF is heavy into preferred stock issues from Canadian banks and insurance companies.

5. Bought 100 of the Closed End Fund (CEF) Petroleum & Resources (PEO) at 24.61 (see Disclaimer): This is the result of my re-positioning in CEF's that invest in natural resource stocks. I sold out of IRR when it started to trade at a premium to its net asset value. Sold 100 IRR at $17.4 Sold 100 IRR at $16.92 BEEPRA and IRR BUY at $12.5

As of 4/27/2010, the discount to NAV was 12.2%, when the NAV was $27.96 and the closing price that day was $24.55. Petroleum & Resources Corp. This is a link to it 2010 1st quarter report: peteres.com/.pdf As of the end of the last quarter, the largest holdings include Chevron at 10.8% of net assets and Exxon at 10.3%, followed by Occidental, Noble, Transocean, Halliburton, Apache, XTO, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold and Noble Energy. This is the link to the PEO page at the CEFA - Closed-End Fund Association.

Excluding a non-recurring pension expense for employees, the expense ratio was .78% in 2009 (see Annual Report at p. 14, PETROLEUM & RESOURCES CORPORATION - FORM N-CSRS - DECEMBER 31, 2009)

The discount to NAV expanded some yesterday to -12.51.

6. Santander (own common STD and floating rate equity preferred STDPRB): STD continued its decline yesterday after S & P downgraded Spain's government debt one notch and kept Spain's credit rating on negative outlook. STD recovered, however, by the end of the day. Spain's debt was downgraded to AA from AA+. S & P is anticipating a protracted period of sluggish economic activity in Spain, which is probably an obvious point. Most of the accelerated growth in Spain prior to 2008 was due to an improvident extension of credit, fueling a housing bubble. It was just a smaller version of what happened in the U.S.

I simply view STD as hostage now to the rapidly deteriorating situation in Greece, and the fear of a contagion effect. Yesterday, the two year Greek government debt hit 24% intra-day. This was either a selling climax or the market is correctly anticipating a default. I continue to like the long term story at STD.

STD reported profits for its 1st quarter of 2.93 billion or €2.22 billion, slightly beating the expectation for €2.2. The tier 1 ratio rose slightly from December to 10.3%. The ratio of NPLs was at 3.34% as of 3/31/2010. Earnings per share were EUR .2553, a 3.3% increase from the 1st quarter of 2009: www.santander.com PDF

A discussion of this report can be found at MarketWatch.

7. SUSQ (own-Regional Bank Stocks): Susquehanna Bancshares reported a profit for the 1st quarter of 2010, earning 4 cents per diluted share versus the consensus expectations of break-even: SUSQ: Analyst Estimates for Susquehanna Bancshares When I purchased SUSQ at $5.85 last October, I placed those shares in Category 1 of my regional bank strategy, a category reserved for what I viewed as the most speculative stocks in this basket. Another common factor for the banks in that category was the reduction in the common share dividend to 1 cent per quarter. This last report from SUSQ keeps that stock on the borderline between Category 1 and 2, leaning toward a promotion to CAT 2 . I had the same reaction to its 2009 4th quarter report. Item # 2 SUSQ Susquehanna is certainly making more progress than some of the other banks in CAT 1-at least it is reporting a profit.

As of 3/31/2010, the net interest margin was 3.8% and tangible book value was $7.3 per share. The tier 1 capital ratio was 14.67%; the total risk based capital ratio was 16.98%, and the leverage ratio was 12.45%, as of 3/31/2010 (press release www.sec.gov) The bank recently redeemed 2/3rds of the government's preferred stock leaving a balance of 100 million. www.sec.gov

8. Bought 50 EUO at 21.73 (Long/Short Strategy-Short Europe)(see disclaimer): This is my second entry into this double short for the EURO, and a small number of shares were purchased near the close yesterday. Who knows what will happen? If Greece receives the money it needs, I will probably sell EUO, most likely for a loss. Otherwise I want to have it around as a very small hedge for a currently unanticipated substantial decline in the European currency due to Europe failing to solve its problems.

I previously bought this ETF. Bought 50 EUO at $17.17 as a Hedge I mentioned in that post from November 2009 that it appeared to me the EURO was overvalued against the U.S. dollar and had formed a double top. Now, I do not even have an opinion on whether or not the bottom is in yet.

9. Dividends and Interest: Chevron, Exxon, Marathon raised their dividends yesterday. Exxon raised its dividend by 2 cents per quarter to 44 cents. Marathon Oil (MRO) raised its quarterly dividend by one cent to 25 cents. The HRP Properties senior note, HRPN, is ex interest today for its quarterly payment.Bought 100 HRPN at 19.32/ Added 100 HRPN AT 19.15 The two exchange traded bonds from Delphi Financial, DKP and DKY, were ex interest for their quarterly distributions yesterday.

AHLPRA, an equity preferred issue from Aspen Insurance, declared its regular quarterly dividend with an ex date of 6/11.Bought 50 AHLPRA at $19.75 Ameren (AEE), an electric utility, declared its regular quarterly dividend with an ex dividend date of 6/07. Bought 100 AEE at 25.8 Dupont declared its regular dividend with a 5/12 ex date. First Niagara declared its regular quarterly dividend with a 5/7 ex date. Bought 50 FNFG at 13.7

1 comment:

  1. Anyone think Timmy is feeling a little hot under the collar?

    "Criminal Charges Possible in Alleged AIG Coverup"

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aVHMZwNcj2B0

    “We’re either going to have criminal or civil charges against individuals or we’re going to have a report,” Barofsky says. “This is too important for us not to share our findings.”

    He won’t say whether the investigation is targeting Geithner personally."

    ReplyDelete