Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: CJR.A:CA-CJREF, MDT, TDIV

Economy: 

Trump Makes First Big Trade Move With Tariffs Aimed at Asia - Bloomberg (30% tariff on solar cells and panels; and 20% to 50% on washing machines)

The tariff on solar cells and panels exempts the first 2.5 gigawatts of imported solar cells. The 30% tariff starts at 30% and falls to 15% by the 4th year.  

Tariffs increase the cost to consumers and is inflationary. Depend on the price increases caused by the tariffs, there may also be a significant decline in demand and a loss of U.S. jobs. 

The Solar Industry Association estimates that the GOP's tariff will cause the loss of approximately 23K U.S. job this year President’s Decision on Solar Tariffs is a Loss for America | SEIA While that kind of estimate from a trade association is always suspect, it is directionally correct but may over estimate the job losses. 

About 95% of solar panels that are installed in the U.S. are imported, with half of the imports originating from Malaysia and South Korea. When the U.S. imposed some restrictions on China's imports, Chinese manufacturers moved production to other countries. 

Fewer solar panels will be installed due to price increases. That will hurt solar installers. The average cost of solar installation has fallen 70% since 2010 which of course increases U.S. demand for solar power. Solar Industry Data | SEIA

The price of washing machines will go up as well. 

When Whirlpool acquired Maytag, the company successfully beat back the government's antitrust concerns by arguing that foreign competition would result in a competitive environment that would result in lower prices for consumers and better products. As it turns out, too much competition is not favored by U.S. manufacturers. When It Comes to Trade Whirlpool Tries To Have Its Cake And Eat It Too: Forbes; Whirlpool Washing Machines: Protectionism Won’t Save the Company; Innovation Might | National Review(higher washing machine prices hurt consumers and retailers selling them) 

I am expecting the Trump administration to continue imposing tariffs which will increase the odds of a trade war. China has already warned Trump indirectly that it could respond by stopping its purchases of U.S. debt, including the reinvestment of proceeds from maturing issues, and may even sell prior to maturity some U.S. debt that it currently owns. A trade war could follow many paths that do not directly involve trade.   

There will be a tipping point. That point would be reached IMO when and if Trump tries to terminate the NAFTA accord. 

Donald guarantees to the nation that will not be a trade war, so rest easy: President says there won’t be ‘trade war’ as he signs tariff orders - MarketWatch 

Existing-Home Sales Fade in December; 2017 Sales Up 1.1 Percent | www.nar.realtor (existing home sales rose 1.1% in 2017 but declined 3.6% in December); Existing-home sales fizzle in December as supply hits an 18-year low - MarketWatch (the realtors blame the decline on a lack of inventory, which may be the cause. The other potential and more ominous causes include a rise in mortgage interest rates, the level of existing home prices, and the new limitations on the deduction for state/local tax payments) 

++++++++

Market Commentary and Markets:

Dalio Says Bonds Face Biggest Bear Market in Almost 40 Years - Bloomberg

Head of world’s largest hedge fund says ‘if you’re holding cash, you’re going to feel pretty stupid’ - MarketWatch

Secret to Dollar's Dim Future Found in Fed's Last Hiking Cycle - Bloomberg

White House Declares Open Season on the Dollar at Davos - Bloomberg

Dollar plunges to 3-year low after Mnuchin cheers weaker greenback - MarketWatch

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Interactive Chart 

A weak dollar will generally contribute to an increase in exports and U.S. multinational profits using GAAP accounting.  The Fed's trade model estimates that "a 10% fall in the trade-weighted dollar index can boost real exports by 7% over three years and contribute 1.5% to gross domestic product if there’s no monetary policy offset. Here’s what Trump’s weak-dollar policy means for the stock market - MarketWatch

There is no free lunch flowing from the dollar's decline. The prices for imported products become more expensive, leading to higher inflation and interest rates that could slow the economy's growth and lead to a multiple contraction in stock prices. Depending on the extent of the slide, foreign demand for low yielding treasuries may wane since the meagre yields are more than wiped out by currency losses. 

And, as an historical note, the U.S. Treasury Secretary James Baker started talking down the dollar's value shortly before the 1987 crash, and his dollar devaluation remarks occurred about 1 year after a massive tax cut in the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and a 50% parabolic rise in the stock market over a 10 month period. Lessons From The 1987 Market Crash - Nasdaq.com   

Stock markets don’t need a ‘trigger’ to correct, says Robert Shiller - MarketWatch

This 1 chart shows the U.S. stock market is the most expensive in the world - MarketWatch

Goldman Says Risk Appetite Has Reached ‘Extreme’ Levels - Bloomberg

++++++++++

Trump: 

Man allegedly threatens mass murder at CNN headquarters, is arrested - CBS News ("According to federal court documents, the man, from a Detroit suburb, made 22 calls to CNN about a week ago. They began with claims of "fake news" and ended with threats of violence.") This is to be expected as the GOP casts the free press as the enemy of the people.  

The WP has finished compiling Trump false and misleading statements for his first 365 days as President. In 365 days, President Trump has made 2,140 false or misleading claims - Washington Post That is 5.863 lies per day. I do not see a difference between a false statement and a misrepresentation. It is not going to get any better. 

A year after U.S. exit, TPP deal reached with 11 nations - MarketWatch

Report: Wray threatened to resign over Trump pressure to get rid of deputy at FBI - CBS News (if true, one of many acts consistent with an authoritarian leaning regime) 

Jared Kushner Is China’s Trump Card | The New Yorker

Trump thinks Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross doing a ‘terrible’ job: report - MarketWatch

Trump is apparently upset that Ross has not convinced Canada and Mexico to commit economic seppuku. Ross allegedly has a tendency to fall asleep during meetings, drool on his face and then wipe the drool off with his tie. Trump’s Commerce Secretary Keeps Falling Asleep During Meetings | Vanity Fair Ross did ruffle some feathers yesterday with his comments about China's theft of U.S. intellectual property which may cause the U.S. to retaliate at some point. U.S. not starting trade war, but sees China tech threat: Ross  

“I’ve Got Another Nut Job Here Who Thinks He’s Running Things”: Are Trump and Kelly Heading for Divorce? | Vanity Fair So Ivanka is looking around for someone to replace Kelly as Trump's Chief of Staff. There is a bountiful supply of Trumpsters who will pay homage to, and properly worship, Donald as our new Sun King. 

Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-WIS), who lost her legs in Iraq, calls Trump ‘a five-deferment draft dodger’ - The Washington Post Trump allegedly had a bond spur that miraculously healed after he successfully avoided being drafted. In his own words, his service to the country during the Vietnam Was was his effort to remain free of venereal disease. Donald Trump Calls Avoiding STDs His 'Personal Vietnam' | PEOPLE.com

Trump unhappy over Zinke's Florida offshore drilling exemption for Florida: report

++++

Devin Nunes (R-California): Loved by Russia's Trolls and Bots

The effort by Devin Nunes (R-California) and his republican allies to denigrate and discredit the FBI is currently being promoted by Russian bots and trolls which is to be expected. The interests of Nunes and the Russians are in complete alignment.  

'Release the memo' campaign aided by Russia-linked Twitter accounts-Business Insider;  

Russian Twitter accounts push #releasethememo conservative meme, researchers say: USA Today; 

Secret memo by House Intel Republicans about FBI 'abuses' sparks furor


Nunes will not share his memo that charges the FBI and Justice Department with various abuses with Senator Burr (R-NC) who is Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, the FBI or the Justice Department. 

Senate intelligence panel denied access to Nunes memo; 

House GOP won't show secret Russia memo to Justice Department - POLITICO    

Nunes will share it with his co-conspirators  and fellow travelers in the House GOP Caucus. 

The Justice Department sent Nunes a hot letter yesterday about releasing classified information. nunes.letter.pdf

The Democrats call the memo a hit job based on false and misleading GOP talking points designed to provide cover for Donald by denigrating the integrity of the FBI. 

Representative Nadler (D-NY) has reviewed the classified material that Nunes relied upon and "those materials tell a very different story than the conspiracy theory concocted by Chairman Nunes" DOJ warns House Intel chairman about purported secret memo on FBI - ABC News Adam Schiff (D-CA) called the Nunes memo a "profoundly misleading set of talking points" that does a "deep disservice to our law enforcement professionals". 

The Democrats have prepared a rebuttal memo. House Democrats write memo to counter GOP’s take on Russia probe, attacks on FBI - The Washington Post 

The republicans used to be big fans of the FBI, but that was before that agency started to investigate Donald and Associates.  

As far as I can tell, Nunes claims that the Justice Department secured a wiretap on Carter Page before the FISA Court based on an alleged FBI failure to disclose relevant information. 

The purported failure to disclose does not involve 21 of the 22 independent corroborated sources used to justify the warrant, but by a failure to disclose in the FISA Affidavit that one of the sources was being indirectly paid by the Hillary Clinton campaign and the DNC. Republicans Claim Surveillance Power Abuses in Russia Inquiry: NYT 

I am referring to Christopher Steele who was employed by Fusion GPS , the firm first employed by a republican organization and then by Clinton and the DNC to look into Donald's past. Steele's memo references Carter Page. 

Based on what I have read so far, Nunes and his republican co-conspirators are not claiming that the information in the Steele memo relating to Carter Page is inaccurate.  

Instead, in their effort to challenge the FBI's integrity, the republicans claim that Steele's possible bias, no matter how tenuous and indirect (or even known the FBI at the time), was not disclosed in the FBI Affidavit.  

It was recently revealed that Trump asked the acting Director of the FBI how he voted in the Presidential election right after Trump fired Comey. Trump asked the acting FBI director how he voted during Oval Office meeting - The Washington Post 

++++++

Trump and the Evangelicals:

Tony Perkins, one of the self proclaimed leaders of the family values movement, has given Trump a mulligan for his first 70+ years of his life. 

The Reverend Franklin Graham condones Trump's rampant non-Christian conduct by saying that the evangelicals did not elect Trump as their pastor. NBC News ("We certainly don't hold him up as the pastor of this nation and he is not") His father was a huge supporter of Richard Nixon.   

Trump found Christianity as a political convenience when he decided to run for President.  

Former Chairman of the RNC Michael Steele:

Steele Rips Tony Perkins, Evangelicals: ‘Shut the Hell Up and Don’t Preach to Me About Anything Ever Again’ | Mediaite

The evangelicals will preach to us about their moral codes and family values, but will give Trump a pass since he pretends to be a Christian and supports their agenda. 

Sure, that is hypocritical and indicates that their support is transactional. Would they support the most immoral person imaginable as President in order to change a few Supreme Court decisions that they disfavor, since that result is viewed by them as a greater morality than their moral codes for individual behavior? I believe that the answer to that question is yes. 

+++++++++++

1. Small Ball:

A.  Bought 50 Corus Entertainment at US$6.62-A Roth IRA Account and Later Bought 50 CJR.B at C$8.2 in IB Account: 


Roth IRA: Paid in USDs

IB Taxable Account: Paid in CADs

In a Roth IRA account, I bought the ordinary shares traded on the pink sheet exchange that are priced in USDs. Corus Entertainment Inc. Cl B NV (CJREF) I will receive dividend payments on that lot in USDs. 

The price of those shares are derived by taking the ordinary shares priced in CAD and converting the price into USDs. 

In my taxable IB account, I bought 50 of the same shares on the Toronto exchange, using my existing CAD stash, and will receive dividend payments in CADs after a 15% withholding tax. 

I last eliminated my CJREF position by selling 100 shares (1/4/17) at US$9.82: 

I am not allowed to own CAD priced shares in my IRA. Since Corus is a "C" corporation and not a pass through entity, I should avoid the Canadian withholding tax by owning this stock in my Fidelity Roth IRA.

HOWEVER, some brokers will not do what is necessary to claim that tax treaty right however. When I received my first monthly dividend, I will note in a comment whether a tax was withheld by Canada.

Article 10: Canada-US Tax Treaty
How to soothe withholding tax pain on U.S. dividends - The Globe and Mail

About Corus: 

"Corus Entertainment Inc. (TSX: CJR.B) is a leading media and content company that creates and delivers high quality brands and content across platforms for audiences around the world. The company’s portfolio of multimedia offerings encompasses 45 specialty television services, 39 radio stations, 15 conventional television stations, a global content business, digital assets, live events, children’s book publishing, animation software, technology and media services. Corus’ roster of premium brands include Global Television, W Network, OWN: Oprah Winfrey Network Canada, HGTV Canada, Food Network Canada, HISTORY®, Showcase, National Geographic, Q107, CKNW, Fresh Radio, Disney Channel Canada, YTV and Nickelodeon Canada." 

The company has to deal with cord cutting and skinny cable packages. 

Last Earnings Report: 

This stock has had a rough few days after reporting disappointing results for the Q/E 11/30/17: Corus Entertainment Announces Fiscal 2018 First Quarter Results

The main problem was a decrease in advertising revenues.  Television and radio advertisements declined by 4% and 1% Y-O-Y while television subscriber revenues were flat. Free cash flow for the quarter was reported at C$83.215M. Adjusted E.P.S. was C$.38 down from $.41 in the year ago first fiscal quarter. 

In the prior quarter, advertising revenues increased by 1% in the more important television business but subscriber growth decreased by 1%. Corus Entertainment Announces Fiscal 2017 Fourth Quarter and Year End Results

This last earnings report generated some analyst downgrades: Corus sees downgrades after disappointing Q1 earnings-Seeking Alpha

Corus Entertainment's (CJREF) CEO Doug Murphy on Q1 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

April 2016 Acquisition of Shaw Media for C$2.65B:

"Shaw Media’s assets consist of 19 specialty channels, including Food Network Canada, HGTV Canada, Slice, Lifetime Canada, HISTORY®, Showcase, National Geographic Canada and BBC Canada; as well as Global’s conventional stations in Vancouver, Okanagan, Edmonton, Calgary, Lethbridge, Saskatoon, Regina, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal, Halifax and Saint John.

This Acquisition more than doubles Corus’ size, creating a combined portfolio of brands that encompass 45 specialty television services, including leading women and lifestyle, kids, family and general entertainment brands; 15 conventional television channels; 39 radio stations; a global content business; and a growing portfolio of digital assets."

Corus Entertainment Completes Acquisition of Shaw Media 

Dividends: Monthly at C$.095 (C$1.14 annually)

Corus Entertainment Declares Monthly Dividend for Class A and Class B Shareholders

Dividends - Corus Entertainment

Dividend Yield: The dividend yield will depend on the then current conversion rate for the ordinary shares priced in USDs. The CAD priced shares were trading at a C$8.19 when I place this trade. The dividend yield at that price is 13.92%. 

The CAD priced shares will have a dividend yield of about 13.9% based on a TC of C$8.2. 

Prior Trades: I have owned briefly the ordinary shares traded on the U.S. pink sheet exchange and in Toronto.  

Item # 2 Sold 100 CJR.B at $13.19: Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 6/26/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = C$118)-Item # 2. Bought 100 CJREF at USD$9.68 (using commission free trade at Fidelity) and 100 CJR.B at C$11.99 (C$1 Commission in IB account) 

I apparently did not discuss selling 100 CJREF: 

2017 CJREF 100 Shares +$14.12

I also had one other flip of CJR.B:CA: 

2016 CJR.B:CA 100 Shares +C$19

The goal, as with other high yielding stocks, is to harvest the dividend and to sell the shares profitably. Any profit, no matter how small, is viewed as acceptable. 

So far, I have made a profit on the shares, but that would not have been the case if I had held onto the lots previously sold until now. This last purchase was well below my lowest prior purchase price. 

Closing Prices 1/24/18: 
CJREF $7.05 +$0.35 +5.22% 
CJR-B.TO  C$8.70 +C$0.35  +4.19% 

The USD priced ordinary shares outperformed the shares traded in Toronto due to the rise in the Canadian Dollar's value yesterday. 

B. Sold 10 MDT at $86.06-Used Commission Free Trade:

Profit Snapshot: +$80.75

Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 2 Bought 10 MDT at $77.99 (10/19/17 Post

Quote: Medtronic PLC  (MDT)
MDT Analyst Estimates

C. Added 10 GMRE at $7.92-Used Commission Free Trade (reaching for more yield in the Schwab account): 

Quote:  Global Medical REIT

This purchase brings me up to 110 shares. 

This is an average down from my previous two 50 share purchases: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 2.B.  (12/26/17 Post) I did reinvest the dividend paid on that 100 share lot. I have nothing to add to that prior discussion.

Quarterly Dividend: $.2 per share

Dividend Yield at a TC of $7.92 =  10.1%

Closing Price 1/24/18: GMRE $8.09 -$0.09 -1.10%

2. SOLD 50+ TDIV at $37.07:

Profit Snapshot:  +$270.61

Item # (4/29/17 Post)(snapshots of prior trades +$683.57)

Quote: First Trust ETF VI NASDAQ Technology Dividend Index Fund (TDIV)

Sponsor's Page: First Trust NASDAQ Technology Dividend Index Fund (TDIV)

Holdings (partial list):

Dividends Quarterly: Distribution History

TDIV Realized Gains to Date: +$954.18

Last Discussed: Item # 4 Added 50 TDIV at $31.28 (7/29/17 Post) 

I still own those shares: 

I also still own 50+ shares in my Schwab account with an average cost per share of $31.83:

Previously Sold Shares:

Sold: 100 TDIV at $25.63 (10/17/14 Post)
Item # 5  Sold 50 TDIV at $22.26 (7/27/13 Post)

Closing Price 1/24/18: TDIV $37.11 -$0.38 -1.01%

3. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:

Short Term Bond/CD Maturities in February 2018: A number of lower coupon instruments will mature next month. The proceeds will be redeployed into higher yielding short term bonds and CDs.

There will be two early bond redemptions this month: 1 JPM 1.7% SU Bond Maturing on 3/1/2018 and 2 Schwab 1.5% SU Bonds Maturing on 3/10/18. Those bonds are being redeemed one month prior to maturity. It is common to create an exception to a make whole payment for optional redemptions shortly before maturity.  

Notice of an optional redemption must be given generally 30 days before redemption, but I have seen many with shorter notice periods. The JPM 3/1/18 bond required notice at least 10 days before redemption. I replaced that bond with a 2.2% JPM SU bond maturing on 10/22/19: Bond Detail.

SU= Senior Unsecured Bond
MI = Monthly Interest

1 JPM 1.7% SU Bond (early redemption by issuer) 2/1/18

2 Citizens Bank 1.35% CDs 2/2/18
2 Bank of Hapoalim 1.4% CDs 2/7/18
2 People's United 1.2% CDs 2/8/18
2 Old National 1% CDs 2/9/18
2 Schwab 1.5% SU Bonds (early redemption by issuer)
2 Washington Federal 1.3% CDs (MI) 2/12/18
2 Bank West CDs 1.35% CDs 2/13/18
2 JP Morgan CDs 1.05% CDs 2/15/18
3 Merrick Bank 1.35% CDs (MI) 2/12/18
2 Bank of East Asia 1.2% CDs 2/13/18
1 Whitney Bank 1.2% CD 2/14/18
2 Bank of China 1.4% CDs 2/15/18
2 JPM 1.05% CDs 2/15/18
1 Treasury 1% 2/15/18
2 Vodafone 1.5% SU 2/19/18
2 Wells Fargo 1.1% CDs (MI) 2/20/18
2 Compass Bank 1.35% CDs 2/20/18
1 S & T Bank 1% CD 2/22/18
2 Franklin Synergy 1.2% CDs (MI) 2/28/18
2 Customers Bank 1.35% CDs 2/28/18
1 Treasury .75% 2/28/18
3 Pinnacle Bank 1.3% CDs (MI) 2/28/18
2 Bank of China 1.4% CDs 2/28/18

$45 K in maturities

Several of the aforementioned CDs had less than 3 month terms.

The key points for me are that these securities (1) generate income greater than cash parked in my brokerage money funds; (2) have no or immaterial credit risks; (3) any value loss due to a rise in interest rates after purchase is quickly recovered as the security nears maturity; and (4) the basket is designed to take advantage of rising short term rates.

For short term bonds, I generally buy bonds in 1 or 2 bond lots and may add 1 bond lots prior to maturity depending on the YTM.

A number of bonds have lost a few dollars in value according to Fidelity, which uses a third party service to value the bonds.

That small diminution in value is due to a variety of reasons that I view as unimportant given the short maturities.

My brokers use a third party service to value the bonds and their evaluated prices are below both the market bid prices and current trades.

The second reason involves the slight upticks in short term rates. Bonds maturing in 2019 have declined more than those maturing this year.

The third reason is that I frequently have to hit the ask price for a seller willing to sell 1 or 2 bond lots, which may be higher than the best available ask price that requires a larger purchase. I have on several occasions made successful transactions at more advantageous prices using limit orders which I am permitted to enter at Fidelity and Interactive Brokers.

Lastly, the brokerage bond commissions, while small, still eat into both my YTM, current yields, and profits.

I have started to buy back some short term bonds at below par value that were recently sold over par value. I have not traded very many bonds maturing in 2018 and 2019. I am more likely to lose one due to an early redemption than by selling the bond. I have two 1.5% Schwab bonds that will be redeemed early next month which is one month prior to their March maturity.

A. Bought 2 Lockheed Martin 1.85% SU Bonds Maturing on 11/23/18: 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail

Credit Ratings: 

Issuer Lockheed Martin Corp.  (LMT) 

LMT Analyst Estimates 

Bought at a Total Cost of 99.966 (with $2 commission; $1 per bond)

YTM at TC Then at 1.887%

Current Yield at 1.8506%

B. Bought 2 Rockwell Collins 1.95% SU Bonds Maturing on 7/15/19:

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Issuer: Rockwell Collins Inc. (COL)
COL Analyst Estimates
United Technologies (UTX) To Acquire Rockwell Collins For $30 Billion

Credit Ratings:

Fitch Places Rockwell Collins L-T Ratings on Rating Watch Positive

Bought at a Total Cost of 99.655 (with $2 commission; $1 per bond)
YTM at TC Then at 2.178%
Current Yield at TC = 1.9568%
Paid 99.555

C. BOUGHT 2 UnitedHealthcare Group 1.7% SU Bonds Maturing on 2/15/19:

Finra Page: Bond Detail

Issuer: UnitedHealth Group Inc.  (UNH)
UNH Analyst Estimates

Credit Ratings:

Fitch Rates UnitedHealth's Senior Note Issuance 'A-'; Affirms IFS Ratings; Outlook to Stable

Bought at a TC of 99.744 (with $2 commission, $1 per bond)
YTM at TC Then at 1.929%
Current Yield at TC = 1.7044%

D. Bought 2 BOFI Federal 1.5% CDs Maturing on 3/29/18 (3 month CDs):

This bank has a five star rating from Bankrate:  Bofi Federal Bank Bank Reviews and Ratings - Bankrate.com

Holding Company: BofI Holding Inc. (BOFI)
BOFI Analyst Estimates

E. Bought 2 BOFI Federal 1.65% CDs Maturing on 6/29/18 (6 month CDs):

The BOFI CDs mature next March and June and the Bond Ghouls currently predict that the FED will likely raise the FF rate by .25% in both months.

F. Bought 2 AstraZeneca 1.75% SU Bonds Maturing on 11/16/18:

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Issuer: AstraZeneca PLC ADR (AZN)
AZN Analyst Estimates

Credit Ratings:
Moody's at A3
FITCH at A-
Fitch Downgrades AstraZeneca to 'A-'; Outlook Negative

Bought at a Total Cost of 99.897 (with $2 commission; $1 per bond)
YTM at TC Then at 1.869%
Current Yield at TC = 1.7518%

With this purchase, I was redirecting the proceeds received from this CD maturity:

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.