Sunday, November 24, 2024

Has a Long Term Bear Market in Intermediate and Long Term Interest Rates Started

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1 comment:

  1. TENNINDEPENDENTNovember 24, 2024 at 12:10 PM

    I am repeating the comments here that I made to the YT video at its website:

    At 3:32, "2020", not 1920.
    "Before the Accord: U.S. Monetary Policy, 1945-1951" published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) which is in a pdf format.

    "Consumer Price Index, 1800-" published by the Minneapolis Federal Reserve

    Chart at the St. Louis Fed: "Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis"

    Freddie Mac website: "Mortgage Rates", click "all" to take the chart back to 1971. I started to build my current home in the fall of 1982.

    Google "National Deficit U.S. Treasury Fiscal data"

    Google: "Major Foreign Owners of US Debt". This is treasury data. Mainland China owned $778B in September and $772B billion in September 2024, the last month reported.

    The U.S. ten year treasury IMO already reflects some supply concerns compared to 10 year bonds from other countries as of 11/22/24:

    U.S. 4.41%
    Spain: 2.9%
    Germany: 2.24%
    France 3.04%
    South Korea 2.98%
    Singapore 2.85%
    Canada 3.43%

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