Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Short Term $1K Par Value Bond/CD Ladder: 1/10/17 Purchases /Current Exchange Traded Bond and Preferred Stock Basket

In addition to the two CNQ bonds maturing next January, and discussed in my last post, I added the following: 

ROTH IRA Short Term Bond/CD Purchases 

Bond Buys ($1 per bond Commission) 

All of these bonds are senior unsecured investment grade bonds and were bought in 1 bond lots under par value.  However, the $1 commission took me a smidgen over par value for the WFC bond. 


The Virginia Electric Power senior unsecured bond, referenced in the snapshot above, has been bought earlier in a taxable account. That purchase was discussed briefly in the comment section here: Short Term Bond Ladder - South Gent | Seeking Alpha or Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management 2016 4th Quarter - South Gent | Seeking Alpha.

I will keep my exposure to the securities issued by one company to less than $15K as a risk mitigation measure. That limit includes securities throughout the capital structure starting with common stock and ending with first lien bonds. I will exclude FDIC insured CDs from that limit but those investments are spread among a number of banks in relatively small amounts. 

My exposure to Vodafone is currently slightly less than $2K in senior unsecured debt. 

I am more likely to hit that limit with Dominion Resources (D) or Wells Fargo (WFC) securities, though I am not currently close.    


Virginia Electric Power (now called Dominion Resources): Matures 1/15/18

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked at the FINRA Page)

YTM at Total Cost = 1.509%

Bond Ratings:  

Moody's RatingA2 (02/01/2016)
Standard & Poor's RatingBBB+ (02/01/2016)
Fitch RatingA (02/01/2016)


Vodafone Group: Matures 9/26/17

FINRA Page:  Bond Detail (prospectus linked at FINRA Page)

YTM at Total Cost = 1.281%

Bond Ratings: 

Moody's RatingBaa1 (07/23/2014)
Standard & Poor's Rating
Fitch RatingBBB+ (08/26/2016)

Wells Fargo: Matures 1/16/18 

FINRA Page Bond Detail (prospectus linked at FINRA Page)

Bond Ratings: 

Moody's RatingA2 (05/14/2015)
Standard & Poor's RatingA (12/02/2015)
Fitch RatingAA- (10/04/2016)

YTM at Total Cost = 1.437%

ROTH IRA: FDIC Insured CD Buy (commission free at Fidelity)


$2K Wells Fargo Bank 1.55% CD Maturing 1/22/19 Monthly Interest Payments 

Taxable Account Short Term Bond/CD Purchases: 

Bond (2) Senior Unsecured BBT


FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked at FINRA page)

Bond Ratings: 

Moody's RatingA2 (08/18/2015)
Standard & Poor's RatingA- (11/14/2012)
Fitch RatingA+ (10/04/2016)

YTM at Total Cost: 1.39%

I also own BBT common and have pared my position down to 171+ shares: 



Some of those shares were acquired in exchange for National Penn shares.  The last common share purchase was discussed here: 

3. Added 50 BBT at $32.35-Satellite Taxable


FDIC Insured CD Purchase (commission free at Fidelity) 

$2K J P Morgan 1.8% Maturing 1/20/20 Monthly Interest Payments

This short term bond/CD basket extends out to three years; so the JPM CD purchase was slightly outside of that time range. 

I am now close to the $200K allocated to this basket strategy. For an investor who generally moves at a snails pace, I have taken this allocation from zero in about 2 weeks which is abnormally fast for the Old Geezer.   

+++++++++++

Exchange Traded Bond and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

I have nipped at the exchange traded bond and preferred stock basket ($25 par values, either in CADs or USDs): 

Basket as of 1/10/17: (click to expand)



I include some ETFs in this basket, which I do not own, for comparison purposes. Currently, the only own bond ETFs are the Guggenheim BulletShares 2020 Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (BSCK) and iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF (FLOT)

The primary dispositions involved profit taking in the Canadian equity preferred reset sector with the most profitable disposition being 300 shares of ENBPRP:  

2017 ENBPRP 300 Shares  +C$1,814  (USDs= +$1.458.25)

For that sale, I immediately converted the CAD proceeds into USDs which cost me 1% of the principal amount. 




Fidelity's 1% currency conversion fee is built into the conversion price. I also had to pay a C$19 Fidelity commission. Those two fees consumed a meaningful amount of my profit before fees and commissions. I have fired Fidelity as my international broker. IB would charge $2 for that currency conversion back into USDs (possibly C$3 for a 300 shares trade/100 shares is C$1).   


The primary reason for that exchange is that I have ceased buying Canadian securities in that Fidelity account. A secondary reason is that I do have concerns about how the CAD will react when and if Trump sets in motion the repeal of NAFTA, which he probably has the power to do as President without the approval of Congress. Yes, President Trump really could kill NAFTA - but it wouldn't be pretty - Nov. 15, 2016 He has certainly promised to do so during the campaign on numerous occasions unless Canada and Mexico meet his demands for revisions.  The market is currently assigning a zero chance of a trade war erupting with Mexico, Canada and/or China. 

About 75% of Canada's exports go to the U.S. Top Canadian officials met Trump team for trade talks: paper | Reuters

The flip side is that Canada imports more goods from the U.S. than it exports to the U.S. Foreign Trade-Census Bureau 

A lot of havoc can happen quickly in trade relations.    

I still own 200 ENBPRB held in my IB account. 

For the Canadian reset equity preferred stocks, I have a realized profit YTD of C$2,481 and have increased my CAD stash through those dispositions by C$9,758. I am using them in part as a hedge for longer duration fixed coupon bonds and potentially perpetual preferred stocks.  I classify the Canadian resets as part of my floating rate equity preferred category. Snapshots can be found in the Gateway Post for that topic: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities 

That classification excludes Synthetic Floaters which pay interest and are classified with other bonds in the Trust Certificate legal form of ownership. 

Short Term Bond/CD Ladder: Bought 2 Canadian Natural Resources 1.75% Senior Unsecured Bonds at 99.826 Maturing on 1/15/18

Earlier today, I went down further on the credit rating scales to buy 2 Canadian Resources 1.75% senior unsecured bonds. This bond is currently rated Baa3 by Moody's or just one notch above junk. 

Moody's downgraded CNQ's debt to Baa3 from Baa1 in January 2016: Moody's downgrades Canadian Natural Resources to Baa3; outlook negative

S & P has a BBB+ rating with a stable outlook and DBRS is currently at BBB with a negative outlook. Canadian Natural Resources - Credit Ratings


This senior unsecured bond was originally issued in 2014 and matures on 1/15/18.  


The FINRA trade page shows that my YTM is 1.825% based on my total cost and 1.926% before Fidelity's $2 commission: 


At the time of my purchase, the one year treasury yield was .8%, United States Rates & Bonds - Bloomberg

While I am taking on some credit risk for an additional 1% over the one year treasury yield, I am not currently concerned about CNQ's ability to pay off this bond next January. 

I also own CNQ's common stock which is near break-even based on the current $31.62 share price. 



The short term bond/CD will top out soon near $200K. The ladder is hyper-sensitive to a rise in short term interest rates with multiple securities maturing each month through 2018. This strategy is predicated on the belief that short term rates will gradually rise and will return to something resembling normal over the next few years. 

As securities mature throughout 2017, I am anticipating that the proceeds can be used to buy securities maturing in 2019 at higher rates than now. 

The ladder is also intended to generate at a minimum 1% more per annum than the Fidelity Government Money Market fund that is the primary funding source for this ladder. While I have not done a precise calculation, I am now at about a 1.5% spread over that low yielding MM fund. 

U.S. treasuries are included in the ladder along with high quality short term corporate bonds, mostly rated A- or higher and bought at discounts to par value. The yield-to-maturity ("YTM") for those bonds will generally be higher than the coupon rate. 

The shortest maturity instruments will be the 4 week treasury bills bought in my Treasury Direct account where I have scheduled 25 reinvestments which can be changed later. 

I am buying short term fixed coupon U.S. treasuries either at auction or in the secondary market which can be done commission free at Schwab, Fidelity and Vanguard. Some other brokers may charge a commission even for auction orders (e.g. TD Ameritrade).  

Except for the 4 week treasury bills, the purchased securities start to mature in March 2017. There are already multiple securities that mature throughout every month from March 2017 through December 2018. A few securities have been bought with 2019 maturities. The intent is to fill out the 2019 maturities with the proceeds received from securities maturing in 2017 and then to use the 2018 maturities to fill out the 18 month period starting on 1/1/20.  

Monday, January 9, 2017

GMTA: Sold 30 at $24.5-Used Commission Free Trade-Small Ball in Potentially Long Duration Exchange Trade Bonds

GATX Corp. 5.625% Senior Notes due 2066 (GMTA) 


GMTA is an Exchange Traded Senior Bond which is currently rated Baa2 by Moody's and BBB by S & P. 



This senior unsecured bond was sold to the public at $25 last May. The issuer has the right to redeem on or after 5/30/2021 "at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, on the principal amount of the notes being redeemed to the applicable redemption date." If not redeemed early at the issuer's option, the bond will mature on 5/30/2066.  

Prospectus 
Position in Schwab Account Prior to Pare: 






I sold the highest cost 30 share lot at $24.5 that was bought at $24.06 (11/29/16) and kept the 50 share lot bought at $22.23 (12/14) and a 20 share lot bought at $22.95 (12/12). 



Closed 1/9/16 at $$24.56
Yield at That Price = 5.73%
Last Quarterly Ex Interest Date: 11/10/16

All of those lots were bought with commission free trades and would not have been in that manner at Schwab's regular commission rate. 

By selling my highest cost lot, I reduced my average cost per share from $22.92 to $22.44, which mitigates future interest rate risk and increases my current yield as well. I will consider buying back that lot at less than $21.75 or up to 50 more shares at less than $20. The foregoing summarizes one trading strategy designed to mitigate interest rate risk. 


The lowest cost lot in that series of odd lot purchases was made in a ROTH IRA at $21.76 and is still owned.   



I now own 110 GMTA shares as part of my Exchange Traded Bonds and Preferred Stocks Basket Strategy. 

GATX SEC Filings 

2016 3rd Quarter Results 

GATX Analyst Estimates

I decided a few weeks ago to buy some longer duration bonds and to attempt interest rate risk management through a variety of measures summarized here:  Summary of Portfolio Management and Positioning at Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management 2016 4th Quarter - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

Short Term Bond Ladder: Bought 6 Month Treasury Bill At Auction and 2 Anheuser Busch Senior Unsecured Maturing on 1/17/18

I have been discussing this particular strategy here: Short Term Bond Ladder - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

I have decided to increase the size again.

Today, I participated in the 6 month treasury bill auction:



The interest is the difference between the auction price and par value.

In a Roth IRA account, I also bought account the Anheuser Busch 1.25% senior unsecured bond maturing on 1/17/18:


I later added one more in my IB account where the commission is $1 per bond.

I now own four of those bonds.

FIRNA PAGE: Bonds Detail

I now anticipate that the short term bond/CD ladder will top out near $200K.

Arantana Therapeutics (PETX) and Merrimack Pharmaceuticals (MACK)

The following are the last two comments that I published at SeekingAlpha:


PETX (own 100 shares-Lotto Ticket):
Aratana Therapeutics, Inc. (PETX)
$8.55 +0.77 (+9.90%)
As of 12:23 PM EST

I did not see any specific PETX news to account for today's move. The shares have been extremely volatile and were up 42% last year:
Why Aratana Therapeutics Inc. Rocketed 42.7% Higher in 2016 -- The Motley Fool
 

Sometimes, the stock spikes based on a knee jerk reaction to acquisition news news that does not involve a company and that may be the case today.
The privately held Mars company, which has a significant pet food business headquartered in Franklin Tennessee, has agreed to acquire VCA Inc.:
VCA Inc. (WOOF)
$90.64 +$19.87 (+28.07%)
As of 12:28 PM EST.

WOOF operates animal hospitals and provides laboratory and consulting for veterinarians.
There has been a lot of acquisition activity in the pet sector over the past few years:
Profit From Trends In The Pet Care Industry | Seeking Alpha
I view PETX as an acquisition candidate given its small market cap and the receipt of three FDA approvals last year
PETX is a drug company focused on animal health.
I first bought 50 shares and discussed that purchase here:
 
2. Bought 50 PETX at $6.43: Update For Healthcare Basket Strategy As Of 7/29/16-Growing Lottery Ticket Component - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
 

The stock has been on a roller coaster rise since that July 2016 purchase: Historical Prices

After one of its periodic dips, I bought another 50 shares at $7.34, an average up, and discussed that trade in Comment Blog # 5: at Seeking Alpha. 

PETX has drifted down some by mid-afternoon and last traded at $8.31, up 6.815 as of 1:58 E.S.T.   

+++++++

MACK: Notwithstanding the market's negative reaction to MACK's announcement's announcement today,  I went ahead and bought another 50 shares this morning at $3.85 using a commission free trade. The other lot is in the IB account. MACK is still well within the definition of a Lottery Ticket.

Merrimack Concludes Strategic Review; Announces Plan to Divest Assets and Sharpen Strategic Focus
Another way to look at this deal, which is not consistent with the current pricing, is that it does monetize ONIVIDE and removes the concern about dilutive share offerings to finance further ONIVIDE trials while retaining benefits in the milestone payments in the event other indications are approved for marketing. In the materials released so far, I did not see any MACK obligation to continue funding those trials in order to receive the milestone payments. Those materials include a slideshow: Merrimack Pharmaceuticals (MACK) Investor Presentation - Slideshow- Seeking Alpha

I also read parts of the acquisition agreement itself which states at page 2 that MACK is transferring "all rights to perform research with respect to, Develop (including clinical development), manufacture, sell, distribute, license, promote and use (or cause to be performed, Developed, manufactured, sold, distributed, licensed, promoted and used) the Transferred Products, including all rights and claims to all clinical study data, reports and analyses to the extent related to the Transferred Products". EX-2.1: SEC Filing

On a related issue, MACK will not have to raise additional capital to further its remaining pipeline drugs into the second half of 2019.
The first MACK dividend of $1.54 looks like close to a sure thing. That mitigates the risk some for a purchase now. Any further dividends, when and if received, would further de-risk stock ownership at the current price. If all milestone payments are made, then the cumulative value of all dividends would exceed the current price.
It is of course virtually impossible to say one way or the other whether the remaining pipeline products will succeed. I am without question unqualified to render an opinion on that subject.
MACK says that seribantumab is now its leading pipeline candidate (page 12 of slide show).
The "U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted seribantumab, also known as MM-121, Fast Track designation for development in patients with heregulin-positive, locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose disease has progressed following immunotherapy." FDA Grants Merrimack Fast Track Designation for Seribantumab (MM-121) in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer 

And, MACK just had a pipeline failure as I have discussed previously. 

++++++

MACK Purchase Today: 50 at $3.85 (commission free at Schwab-over 400 free trades left)




I last sold 100 MACK at $6.43: 




I discussed buying 50 shares of that 100 share lot here: Item # 5 Bought 50 MACK at $5.35: Update For Healthcare Basket Strategy As Of 7/29/16-Growing Lottery Ticket Component - South Gent | Seeking Alpha  

I then bought back 50 shares at $3.6 last Friday in my IB account: 


  

There are several possible reasons for the poor response to MACK's announcement today: (1) Investors believe that ONIVDE was sold at too low of a price or the price for ONIVDE was low due to its disappointing launch which continued into the last quarter; (2) too much of the ONIVDE potential revenues for MACK are backloaded into new FDA indication approvals; (3) the market is not confident that those milestone payments will actually be received; (4) investors are disappointed that MACK decided to stay independent; (5) investors lack confidence in the remaining pipeline and/or (6) the remaining pipeline products are just too far away from securing marketing approval to place value on them.

I am now at 150 MACK shares as a Lotto Ticket. 

Coming Back to This Blog

Starting today, I will be posting only at this website. I will be discussing daily some of my trades, similar to what I have been doing recently at SeekingAlpha in my Comment Instablogs.   

I will no longer be posting or commenting at SeekingAlpha: 


I do not like the advertisements adorning my SeekingAlpha Instablog. My blogs have always been free of those advertisements, and there will be none here.  

I also find it irritating that Instablogs that are nothing more than advertisements for a subscription service have more readers.  I can now avoid that irritation by ignoring the Instablog rankings altogether, since I expect to fall out of the top 100 soon enough. 


I have turned on the comment feature, but I will have to approve any comments prior to publication. That is necessary to avoid an endless number of spam comments that will start to appear when there is no moderation. 

Saturday, August 27, 2016

Updates

I have quit providing links to updates published at SeekingAlpha.

I would suggest bookmarking this page:  South Gent's Instablogs | Seeking Alpha

As noted in a recent blog, I will be transitioning to publishing one blog per quarter:

Future Blogs Will Only Be On A Quarterly Basis - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

I will be leaving substantive comments to my most recent SA Instablog, including some references to portfolio changes.

The most recent Instablog is this one:   South Gent's Comment Blog # 8: REITs, Preferred Stocks And Bonds, Regional Banks, Healthcare & Biotechs, CEFs, Currencies And International Trading - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

This is a link to my last quarterly update: Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management 2016 4th Quarter - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

12/23/16  Short Term Bond Ladder - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Friday, July 29, 2016

Update for Healthcare Basket Strategy as of 7-29-16-Growing Lottery Ticket Component

The easiest way to track what I am doing or saying is to become a follower at SeekingAlpha and to check the "track new comments" box at the end of each Instablog. 

I was somewhat taken back when I looked at the rankings for SA Instablog authors and noted several authors who are using the Instablog format to sell subscriptions.  Top Instablogs | Seeking Alpha (e.g. Superinvestor Bulletin's Instablogs | Seeking Alpha).  I receive zilch and I am not trying to sell myself or anything else.  

Several of these Instablog advertisements are scattered throughout the SA Instablog universe and provide no useful or meaningful information IMO. They are exactly what they appear to be: advertisements for a subscription service. 

Then there are those that could fill a Twitter message with a few more words. No one has ever accused me of such brevity.  Nothing informative about an investment can be put in a 140 word narrative but those Twitter Want-To-Be Instablogs are not likely to lose anyone's short, and growing shorter, attention span.  You Now Have a Shorter Attention Span Than a Goldfish | TIME And one of our presidential contenders will need to struggle mightily to achieve the attentions span of a goldfish.  




Update For Healthcare Basket Strategy As Of 7/29/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

South Gent's Activity feed | Seeking Alpha

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Update for Equity REIT Basket Strategy as of 7/28/16

The easiest way to track what I am doing or saying is to become a follower at SeekingAlpha and to check the "track new comments" box at the end of each Instablog. 

I was somewhat taken back when I looked at the rankings for SA Instablog authors and noted several authors who are using the Instablog format to sell subscriptions.  Top Instablogs | Seeking Alpha (e.g. Superinvestor Bulletin's Instablogs | Seeking Alpha).  I receive zilch and I am not trying to sell myself or anything else.  

Several of these Instablog advertisements are scattered throughout the SA Instablog universe and provide no useful or meaningful information IMO. They are exactly what they appear to be: advertisements for a subscription service. 

Then there are those that could fill a Twitter message with a few more words. No one has ever accused me of such brevity.  Nothing informative about an investment can be put in a 140 word narrative but those Twitter Want-To-Be Instablogs are not likely to lose anyones short, and growing shorter, attention span.  I read several of them this evening for the first time


Link to 6856 SA Activities: South Gent's Activity feed | Seeking Alpha

Monday, April 11, 2016

New Link to SA Instablog

SeekingAlpha has done another makeover. 

The link to my Instablog has changed to South Gent's Social feed | Seeking Alpha

The only improvement IMO is that stock symbol links to prior discussions can now be found on that start page.  

I left a comment at the new start page which was turned into gibberish when I clicked the post button. For now, the only comment boxes that works properly are the ones found on the full version of each post.

The other changes are viewed negatively including the removal of the google search box that allowed me to search my own Instablog.

New comments are no longer listed at the top of the Instablog start page. It is only when the investor opens a single Instablog that the comments appear with the newest first.

Instead, the blog that received the last comment is now in first position, no matter when it was published, and the user has to scroll to the end to find whatever comment was made.