Markets:
The stock market was in a rally mode yesterday, but finished off the intra-day high after the NYT and Washington Post published two articles.
These articles are, as usual, based on anonymous sources.
The Washington Post claimed that a senior White House advisor is a person of "significant interest" in the collusion probe. Russia probe reaches current White House official, people familiar with the case say - The Washington Post
The New York Times reported that, based on an internal White House document, Trump told Russia's Foreign Minister and its U.S. Ambassador the following:
“I just fired the head of the F.B.I. He was crazy, a real nut job. I faced great pressure because of Russia. That’s taken off.”
Trump Told Russians That Firing ‘Nut Job’ Comey Eased Pressure From Investigation - The New York Times
The White House is spinning those statements as a negotiating ploy that Trump was using against the Russians to gain concessions. Perhaps that explanation will work on those whose brains calcified soon after birth and are now among the living braindead. Yes, there are in fact living dead among us. Why do you think that so many enjoy watching stories about zombies at the movies and on TV.
The source of that information were notes taken by someone in the oval office. The notes were the official account of the meeting and had been circulated in the White House.
{F.B.I. Once Warned G.O.P. Congressman That Russian Spies Were Recruiting Him - The New York Times-the GOP's Majority leader, Kevin McCarthy, was recorded late last year saying that there are "two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump.” The congressman warned by the FBI was Rohrabacher, one's of Trump's most fervent admirers. No evidence has been produced yet that shows he was paid as McCarthy suspected in "jest" and the congressman denies being on Moscow's payroll}
The release of those stories resulted in a mild bond rally late yesterday and a slight downtick in major stock indexes off intra-day highs. The WP article is more important if later proved to be accurate. How much of a problem depends on who it is and whether the evidence is sufficient to indict. Jarod Kushner?
It would be reasonable to assume that more damaging information will be released in the weeks and months to come.
Comey will publicly testify sometime after May 29th: Comey agrees to testify before Senate Intelligence Committee in open hearing - CBS News
Closing Prices 5/19/17:
S&P 500 2,381.73 +16.01 +.68% (high at 2,389.06)
^VIX 12.04 -2.62 -17.87%
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF $123.71 +.29 (intra-day low at 123.01)
In a few months, looking back to now, will it be obvious that a double top was hit in the S & P 500 near 2400 or will the current trepidation at that level merely be the pause that refreshes in the next bull stampede:
++++++++++++
Fed Economic Survey:
44% could not pay an emergency expense of $400 or would have to borrow or sell something to pay it.
Page 26 2016-report-economic-well-being-us-households-May 2017.pdf
++++++
Nestle Annual Dividend:
I received Nestle's annual dividend on 5/19/17 and paid a 15% withholding tax to Switzerland.
This position is held in a Fidelity account. I will no longer use Interactive Brokers to purchase foreign ADRs given that firm's failures to assert my tax treaty rights to a 15% dividend tax.
I recently sold my highest cost 50 lot shortly after the ex dividend date.
I am now down to 50 shares:
Closing Price 5/19/17: NSRGY $84.8 +$1.99 +2.4%
For a large cap, this stock, as I recently mentioned in a comment, is enjoying a bull move over the past month:
+++++++++
Mostly Politics:
Trump Knew of Flynn Investigation, Still Hired Him: Report
Flynn Delayed Anti-ISIS Plan That Turkey Opposed - NBC News
House Dems Smash Fundraising Records Ahead of Midterms - NBC News
Trump is ignorant about U.S. history as he repeatedly demonstrates over and over again with one of the latest examples being this statement:
“Look at the way I’ve been treated lately, especially by the media. No politician in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.”
Now, that is funny given the level of historical ignorance on display. Someone must have told Donald that Abe Lincoln was a republican. More than a few really bad things were said about Abe but no one heard him whine and complain like a little boy brat.
Maybe Donald needs to read up on Abe who made the following observation about detractors:
Poor Donald. "Sad!". The "liberals" are being so mean to him. "Why's Everybody always pickin' on Me": The Coasters - Charlie Brown - YouTube He wraps himself in victimhood as easy as he breathes.
In the U.S. today, a "liberal" is anyone who is actually interested in accurate information and is not easily manipulated by false statements and reality creations. Most liberals actually believe in the principles of the U.S. Constitution.
Trump calls the the Russian investigation the "single greatest witch hunt of a politician in American history!" That rant is aimed at the appointment of a special counsel to investigate Russia's election interference on his behalf. He then stated later that this appointment "hurts our country terribly". That last statement reminded me of what Louis IV would probably say under the circumstance: 'L'etat c'est moi' (I am the State). Donald has modeled his NY residence on The Hall of Mirrors at Versailles built by his idol the Sun King.
The appointment of a special counsel was made necessary by Trump's own actions, starting with the firing of Comey, his admission that the firing was related to the FBI's Russian investigation, his tweet on the day of the firing that the investigation was a hoax and a waste of taxpayer funds, and the allegations made in the Comey memo where Trump allegedly asked the FBI Director to stop the Flynn investigation.
Trump is incapable of blaming himself whenever things do not go his way.
Instead of accepting responsibility for his action, Trump is yelling at his staff and blaming them for his actions. The worst job in Washington right now: Working for Trump - The Washington Post; Trump Calls Himself the Victim of a ‘Witch Hunt’ - The New York Times
Trump lashes out over special counsel appointment - CNN
Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein knew Trump would fire Comey before memo, senators say - CBS News (so Trump had him cook up a memo justifying Comey's termination on grounds that pre-dated Trump's Presidency and involved Clinton's emails rather than the Russian investigation, but Rod assures everyone that he really believes in what he said)
I remain curious why the white middle class voters believe that Trump will do something meaningful to help them. The republicans are trying hard to help me.
Trump has already proposed major funding slashes in programs that benefit them or the rural regions where many of them live. And, there is nothing in Trump's 70 year lifespan that indicates that he gives a damn about the working class. When he has done something in the past, he screwed working people and small businesses who performed work for him.
USA TODAY exclusive: Hundreds allege Donald Trump doesn’t pay his bills;
Trump’s DC Hotel Tagged With $5 Million in Unpaid Worker Liens - Bloomberg;
Dozens of lawsuits accuse Trump of not paying his bills, reports claim | Fox News;
Two contractors allege getting stiffed for work on Trump’s D.C. hotel - The Washington Post;
The small business owners Trump never fully paid - CNN;
Donald Trump’s Business Plan Left a Trail of Unpaid Bills - WSJ
The "liberals" are making all of this stuff up, which goes without saying.
+++++++++++++
1. Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
The stock market was in a rally mode yesterday, but finished off the intra-day high after the NYT and Washington Post published two articles.
These articles are, as usual, based on anonymous sources.
The Washington Post claimed that a senior White House advisor is a person of "significant interest" in the collusion probe. Russia probe reaches current White House official, people familiar with the case say - The Washington Post
The New York Times reported that, based on an internal White House document, Trump told Russia's Foreign Minister and its U.S. Ambassador the following:
“I just fired the head of the F.B.I. He was crazy, a real nut job. I faced great pressure because of Russia. That’s taken off.”
Trump Told Russians That Firing ‘Nut Job’ Comey Eased Pressure From Investigation - The New York Times
The White House is spinning those statements as a negotiating ploy that Trump was using against the Russians to gain concessions. Perhaps that explanation will work on those whose brains calcified soon after birth and are now among the living braindead. Yes, there are in fact living dead among us. Why do you think that so many enjoy watching stories about zombies at the movies and on TV.
The source of that information were notes taken by someone in the oval office. The notes were the official account of the meeting and had been circulated in the White House.
{F.B.I. Once Warned G.O.P. Congressman That Russian Spies Were Recruiting Him - The New York Times-the GOP's Majority leader, Kevin McCarthy, was recorded late last year saying that there are "two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump.” The congressman warned by the FBI was Rohrabacher, one's of Trump's most fervent admirers. No evidence has been produced yet that shows he was paid as McCarthy suspected in "jest" and the congressman denies being on Moscow's payroll}
The release of those stories resulted in a mild bond rally late yesterday and a slight downtick in major stock indexes off intra-day highs. The WP article is more important if later proved to be accurate. How much of a problem depends on who it is and whether the evidence is sufficient to indict. Jarod Kushner?
It would be reasonable to assume that more damaging information will be released in the weeks and months to come.
Comey will publicly testify sometime after May 29th: Comey agrees to testify before Senate Intelligence Committee in open hearing - CBS News
Closing Prices 5/19/17:
S&P 500 2,381.73 +16.01 +.68% (high at 2,389.06)
^VIX 12.04 -2.62 -17.87%
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF $123.71 +.29 (intra-day low at 123.01)
In a few months, looking back to now, will it be obvious that a double top was hit in the S & P 500 near 2400 or will the current trepidation at that level merely be the pause that refreshes in the next bull stampede:
++++++++++++
Fed Economic Survey:
44% could not pay an emergency expense of $400 or would have to borrow or sell something to pay it.
Page 26 2016-report-economic-well-being-us-households-May 2017.pdf
++++++
Nestle Annual Dividend:
I received Nestle's annual dividend on 5/19/17 and paid a 15% withholding tax to Switzerland.
I recently sold my highest cost 50 lot shortly after the ex dividend date.
I am now down to 50 shares:
Closing Price 5/19/17: NSRGY $84.8 +$1.99 +2.4%
For a large cap, this stock, as I recently mentioned in a comment, is enjoying a bull move over the past month:
+++++++++
Mostly Politics:
Trump Knew of Flynn Investigation, Still Hired Him: Report
Flynn Delayed Anti-ISIS Plan That Turkey Opposed - NBC News
House Dems Smash Fundraising Records Ahead of Midterms - NBC News
Trump is ignorant about U.S. history as he repeatedly demonstrates over and over again with one of the latest examples being this statement:
“Look at the way I’ve been treated lately, especially by the media. No politician in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.”
Now, that is funny given the level of historical ignorance on display. Someone must have told Donald that Abe Lincoln was a republican. More than a few really bad things were said about Abe but no one heard him whine and complain like a little boy brat.
Maybe Donald needs to read up on Abe who made the following observation about detractors:
“If I were to try to read, much less answer, all the attacks made on me, this shop might as well be closed for any other business. I do the very best I know how - the very best I can; and I mean to keep doing so until the end. If the end brings me out all right, what's said against me won't amount to anything. If the end brings me out wrong, ten angels swearing I was right would make no difference.”
Maybe Donald should actually read a book about Abe. Has anyone asked Donald yet about the last book he read? Trump 'does not read books': report
He apparently skipped 9th grade Civics class as well.
If Comey testifies under oath that Trump asked him to end the Flynn investigation, and Trump has denied that happened, who will you believe? Trump has no credibility whatsoever. The Washington Post has now documented 586 false and misleading statements made our Dear Leader since 1/20/17: The Fact Checker’s tally of Trump’s false claims since becoming president - Washington Post
Truth be known, the "liberals" and Fake News Media are just upset that Donald won the election and are trying to derail his efforts to Make America Great Again. Hats with that slogan, made in Vietnam, are available for purchase everywhere.
He apparently skipped 9th grade Civics class as well.
If Comey testifies under oath that Trump asked him to end the Flynn investigation, and Trump has denied that happened, who will you believe? Trump has no credibility whatsoever. The Washington Post has now documented 586 false and misleading statements made our Dear Leader since 1/20/17: The Fact Checker’s tally of Trump’s false claims since becoming president - Washington Post
Truth be known, the "liberals" and Fake News Media are just upset that Donald won the election and are trying to derail his efforts to Make America Great Again. Hats with that slogan, made in Vietnam, are available for purchase everywhere.
In the U.S. today, a "liberal" is anyone who is actually interested in accurate information and is not easily manipulated by false statements and reality creations. Most liberals actually believe in the principles of the U.S. Constitution.
Trump calls the the Russian investigation the "single greatest witch hunt of a politician in American history!" That rant is aimed at the appointment of a special counsel to investigate Russia's election interference on his behalf. He then stated later that this appointment "hurts our country terribly". That last statement reminded me of what Louis IV would probably say under the circumstance: 'L'etat c'est moi' (I am the State). Donald has modeled his NY residence on The Hall of Mirrors at Versailles built by his idol the Sun King.
The appointment of a special counsel was made necessary by Trump's own actions, starting with the firing of Comey, his admission that the firing was related to the FBI's Russian investigation, his tweet on the day of the firing that the investigation was a hoax and a waste of taxpayer funds, and the allegations made in the Comey memo where Trump allegedly asked the FBI Director to stop the Flynn investigation.
Trump is incapable of blaming himself whenever things do not go his way.
Instead of accepting responsibility for his action, Trump is yelling at his staff and blaming them for his actions. The worst job in Washington right now: Working for Trump - The Washington Post; Trump Calls Himself the Victim of a ‘Witch Hunt’ - The New York Times
Trump lashes out over special counsel appointment - CNN
Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein knew Trump would fire Comey before memo, senators say - CBS News (so Trump had him cook up a memo justifying Comey's termination on grounds that pre-dated Trump's Presidency and involved Clinton's emails rather than the Russian investigation, but Rod assures everyone that he really believes in what he said)
I remain curious why the white middle class voters believe that Trump will do something meaningful to help them. The republicans are trying hard to help me.
Trump has already proposed major funding slashes in programs that benefit them or the rural regions where many of them live. And, there is nothing in Trump's 70 year lifespan that indicates that he gives a damn about the working class. When he has done something in the past, he screwed working people and small businesses who performed work for him.
USA TODAY exclusive: Hundreds allege Donald Trump doesn’t pay his bills;
Trump’s DC Hotel Tagged With $5 Million in Unpaid Worker Liens - Bloomberg;
Dozens of lawsuits accuse Trump of not paying his bills, reports claim | Fox News;
Two contractors allege getting stiffed for work on Trump’s D.C. hotel - The Washington Post;
The small business owners Trump never fully paid - CNN;
Donald Trump’s Business Plan Left a Trail of Unpaid Bills - WSJ
The "liberals" are making all of this stuff up, which goes without saying.
+++++++++++++
1. Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 Realty Income 3% Senior Unsecured Bonds Maturing on 1/15/27:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings
FITCH at BBB+
Fitch Rates Realty Income's $250MM 4.125% Sr. Unsecured Notes Due 2026 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable
Fitch Rates Realty Income's $250MM 4.125% Sr. Unsecured Notes Due 2026 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable
YTM at Total Cost (95.926) = 3.497%
O Analyst Estimates
2016 Annual Report
I have traded the common shares. I bought 100 shares at $36.96. Item # 1 Sold 100 Realty Income at $52.37: Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 1/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot +$1,579.5)- Item # 6 Bought: 100 Realty Income (O) at $36.96 (12/10/13 Post)
I view the stock as overvalued at its current price, particularly taking into account the longer term secular headwinds for box retailers.
I am likely to trade this bond. I seriously doubt that I will own it when and if I can sell it at par value.
2016 Annual Report
I have traded the common shares. I bought 100 shares at $36.96. Item # 1 Sold 100 Realty Income at $52.37: Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 1/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot +$1,579.5)- Item # 6 Bought: 100 Realty Income (O) at $36.96 (12/10/13 Post)
I view the stock as overvalued at its current price, particularly taking into account the longer term secular headwinds for box retailers.
I am likely to trade this bond. I seriously doubt that I will own it when and if I can sell it at par value.
B. Bought 2 General Mills 3.2% Senior Unsecured Bonds Maturing on 2/10/27:
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at A3
Moody's assigns A3 to General Mills $750 million notes offering
S & P at BBB+
Fitch at BBB+ Fitch Affirms General Mills' IDR at 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable | Business Wire
S & P at BBB+
Fitch at BBB+ Fitch Affirms General Mills' IDR at 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable | Business Wire
YTM at Total Cost (99.881) = 3.214%
I do not regard recent earnings reports as satisfactory and consequently no longer own the common shares. I sold my last lot at $60.36 and discussed that disposition here: Item # 1 Sold 52+ GIS at $60.36-Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 4/1/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot $1,285.31)-Item # 1 Bought 50 GIS at $35.53 (1/5/11 Post)
Even though I do find the recent reports to be satisfactory, that will not prevent me from buying back the stock at what I would view as the right price. A price below $50 would probably start the brain cells spinning.
I do not regard recent earnings reports as satisfactory and consequently no longer own the common shares. I sold my last lot at $60.36 and discussed that disposition here: Item # 1 Sold 52+ GIS at $60.36-Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 4/1/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot $1,285.31)-Item # 1 Bought 50 GIS at $35.53 (1/5/11 Post)
Even though I do find the recent reports to be satisfactory, that will not prevent me from buying back the stock at what I would view as the right price. A price below $50 would probably start the brain cells spinning.
Issuer: KR Stock Price - Kroger Co (U.S.: NYSE)
FINRA Page: Bonds Detail (prospectus not linked)
Prospectus
KR The Kroger Co Page at Morningstar
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at Baa1
Moody's upgrades Kroger to Baa1
S & P at BBB
Fitch at BBB Fitch Affirms Kroger at 'BBB/F2' & Rates New Issue 'BBB'; Outlook Stable
YTM at Total Cost (93.920) = 3.406%
Last January, Kroger sold $1B in 4.45% senior unsecured notes maturing in 2047.
KR Analyst Estimates
Kroger SEC Filings
Kroger 2016 Annual Report
D. Bought 2 Entergy Mississippi 3.1% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 7/1/23:
I bought 1 bond in a taxable account ($1 Commission):
Issuer: Wholly Owned Distribution Subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR)
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (PROSPECTUS LINKED)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at A3
Moody's Changes Entergy Mississippi's Rating Outlook to Positive from Stable
YTM at Total Cost (101.679) = 2.791%
I thereafter bought 1 bond in a Roth IRA Account ($2 Commission):
YTM at Total Cost (101.578) = 2.819%
The price had declined some due to a slight uptick in interest rates.
2. Continued to Pare Stock Allocation:
A. Sold 130 VIVHY at $20.13:
Profit Snapshot: +$145.85
The shares received a boost on Monday 4/24/17 based on France's election results.
Closing Prices 4/24/17:
VIVHY $20.34 1.39 +7.34%
VIV.PA €18.76 +€1.10 6.26%
EUR/USD 1.0868 +0.0143 1.34% (late on 4/24/17)
I discussed buying 100 shares in this post: Item # 4.A.: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Observations and Sample Trades (VIVHY, ADX, HTGZ): January 24, 2017/Donald Trump and the Beginning of the End of the Progressive Era
I sold shortly before the annual ex dividend date. Vivendi cut its annual dividend from €1 per share to €.4. Dividend / Distribution - Vivendi
I do not like dividend cuts.
3. Continued to Harvest Profits in Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Sold 100 PPLPRG at C$23.32:
Profit Snapshot: +C$507
Item # 6. Bought 50 PPLPRG at C$17: Update For Exchange Traded Bond And Preferred Stock Basket Strategy As Of 7/13/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Issuer: PBA Stock Price - Pembina Pipeline Corp.(U.S.: NYSE); PPL Stock Price - Pembina Pipeline Corp (Canada: Toronto)
PPLPRG pays cumulative dividends at an annual rate of C$1.125 on a C$25 par value. That is a 4.5% coupon. That fixed rate coupon exists until the first reset date in December 2019. The coupon will then be reset at a 2.94% spread to the five year Canadian government bond and will reset at the same spread every five years thereafter until redeemed by the issuer. The issuer has the option to redeem at par value plus accrued dividends on 12/1/2019 and on every fifth year thereafter. Series-7-Prospectus.pdf
I have bought and sold the NYSE common shares:
Item # 1. Sold 50 PBA at $29.3: Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 4/29/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha-Item # 3. Bought 50 PBA at $24.8: Update For Portfolio Management And Positioning As Of 11/11/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Item # 5 Sold: 100 PBA at $33.19 (10/3/2013)-Item # 3 Bought 100 PBA at $29.21 (2/20/13 Post)
PBA Pembina Pipeline Corp Page at Morningstar
5. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Added 1 Nextera 1.649% Senior Unsecured Bond Maturing on 9/1/18:
I now own 4 of these bonds.
Issuer: NEE Stock Price - NextEra Energy Inc.
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Moody's at Baa1
Moody's: NextEra Energy unaffected at Baa1-Stable amidst regulators' denial of proposed Oncor acquisition
S & P at BBB+
Fitch at A - Fitch Rates NextEra Energy Capital Holdings' Debentures 'A-'
YTM at Total Cost (99.896) = 1.727%
The 1 year U.S. treasury closed at a .99% yield on 4/21, the day that I purchased this bond.
NEE Analyst Estimates
2016 Annual Report
2017 First Quarter Results
B. Bought 2 Compass Bank .85% CDs Maturing on 8/3/17 (Fidelity Taxable Account):
I own one Compass Bank 5.9% junior bond maturing on 4/1/26: Bond Detail
I bought that bond a few years ago at 76.75: Item # 2 BOUGHT 1 Compass Bank 5.9% Subordinated Note Maturing in 2026 at 76.75 (7/11/12 Post). That bond is currently rated Baa3 by Moody's and BBB by S & P. It rarely trades. Moody's takes negative rating actions on six US regional banks with energy concentrations
I am picking up a tad more interest with shorter maturities compared to CDs bought last February that mature in August. I am now reinvesting the expected proceeds from those CDs before they mature with other CDs maturing that month.
D. Added 2 USTs .625% Maturing on 8/31/17 (Schwab Taxable Account: Bought 4/24/17):
YTM at Total Cost (99.924811) = .841%
E. Added 1 UST .625 Maturing on 8/31/17 (Fidelity Account-Bought 4/26/17):
YTM at Total Cost (99.9340) = .817%
I now own 6 of these bonds.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
PBA Pembina Pipeline Corp Page at Morningstar
5. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Added 1 Nextera 1.649% Senior Unsecured Bond Maturing on 9/1/18:
I now own 4 of these bonds.
Issuer: NEE Stock Price - NextEra Energy Inc.
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Moody's at Baa1
Moody's: NextEra Energy unaffected at Baa1-Stable amidst regulators' denial of proposed Oncor acquisition
S & P at BBB+
Fitch at A - Fitch Rates NextEra Energy Capital Holdings' Debentures 'A-'
YTM at Total Cost (99.896) = 1.727%
The 1 year U.S. treasury closed at a .99% yield on 4/21, the day that I purchased this bond.
NEE Analyst Estimates
2016 Annual Report
2017 First Quarter Results
B. Bought 2 Compass Bank .85% CDs Maturing on 8/3/17 (Fidelity Taxable Account):
I own one Compass Bank 5.9% junior bond maturing on 4/1/26: Bond Detail
I bought that bond a few years ago at 76.75: Item # 2 BOUGHT 1 Compass Bank 5.9% Subordinated Note Maturing in 2026 at 76.75 (7/11/12 Post). That bond is currently rated Baa3 by Moody's and BBB by S & P. It rarely trades. Moody's takes negative rating actions on six US regional banks with energy concentrations
C. Bought 2 Bank of India .85% CDs Maturing on 8/2/17:
I am picking up a tad more interest with shorter maturities compared to CDs bought last February that mature in August. I am now reinvesting the expected proceeds from those CDs before they mature with other CDs maturing that month.
D. Added 2 USTs .625% Maturing on 8/31/17 (Schwab Taxable Account: Bought 4/24/17):
YTM at Total Cost (99.924811) = .841%
E. Added 1 UST .625 Maturing on 8/31/17 (Fidelity Account-Bought 4/26/17):
YTM at Total Cost (99.9340) = .817%
I now own 6 of these bonds.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Trumpty Dumpty tweets on his wall.
ReplyDeleteKushner will be the next to fall.
All the King's horses and all the King's men,
Couldn't put Trumpty together again.
(I wonder if, as in the Watergate story, the source of the leaks turns out to be someone at the FBI. Or possibly the CIA, who Trump has insulted too. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/21/cia-donald-trump-first-meeting)
Cathie - :), made me laugh!
DeleteSadly, I do think Trump is beyond repair. It's no longer a matter of his learning a few skillsets. Too many, way too many ways in which he's not able to do this job properly, and has shown not even understanding of what skills he's lacking. Kusher too doesn't seem like a gem.
Saw an interesting media guest's "expert opinion." He said leaks are usually one faction inside trying to get back at another faction inside WH. But these have a different quantity (WAY many more) - and quality to them. They look like real leaking, not policy positioning. Thank goodness for that at least happening or we'd know nothing.
Cathie: Trump has insulted the CIA repeatedly.
ReplyDeleteI believe that there are multiple leakers that include people in the intelligence services (FBI, CIA, NSA) and one or more people in the White House.
The leaks are occurring far more swiftly and in larger numbers compared to prior administrations. A lot of people view Trump as a total nut job who is clearly unfit to be President.
It would not surprise me that Kushner is the FBI's person of interest in the collusion probe.
He initially failed to disclose contacts with the Russian ambassador and and the head of Vnesheconombank which is personally controlled by Putin. A graduate of Russia's spy school, Sergey N. Gorkov, heads up the bank.
He failed to disclose those contacts on his security clearance application.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/06/us/politics/jared-kushner-russians-security-clearance.html
A reporter for the NY magazine has confirmed with 4 sources that Kushner is the person of interest.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jared-kushner-russia-investigation-trump-song-in-law-probe-person-interest-a7745916.html
Kushner is reported to have been the primary moving force behind Comey's dismissal.
I would withhold judgment until more facts are known.
This is currently speculation. When speculating, I am speculating when I say that Kushner is the most likely person given the words "close" and "senior advisor" found in the WP article.
IMDZ, one of small cap biotech lottery tickets, had a pop last Friday:
ReplyDelete$ 7.30 +$0.60 (+8.96%)
Volume 222,901
Avg. Volume 90,568
Market Cap 186.67M
There as some news on the 17th:
"New Clinical and Biomarker Data Validate Immune Design’s Lead Programs and Discovery Platforms"
http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/05/17/987224/0/en/New-Clinical-and-Biomarker-Data-Validate-Immune-Design-s-Lead-Programs-and-Discovery-Platforms.html
http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/05/17/987216/0/en/Immune-Design-Reports-First-Quarter-2017-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Corporate-Update.html
Pipeline:
http://www.immunedesign.com/pipeline/
Major Shareholders:
http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=IMDZ
South Gent,
ReplyDeleteThank you for the IMDZ update. I might sell my shares into this rally. This type of clinical-stage development companies are in constant need of raising capital and I will not be surprised if a stock offering will come soon after all these good news.
Separately, I am keeping my MACK shares (at a -6% unrealized loss). I followed your lotto ticket basket strategy to build a small cap biotech basket of 45 positions in late 2016. I have since sold AXON (+69%), VCYT (+22%) and VRAY (+120%). The remaining basket is up 2% from cost, ranging from AVGR (-84%) to STDY (+151%). A daily swing of +/- 5% to 10% is not uncommon to the individual stocks in this basket.
The overall weighing of this basket is immaterial but I have learned valuable lessons in the process. I have invested in biotech for some time with varying degree of success but your lotto ticket basket strategy seems more appropriate for my current situation.
Y: I have kept a 100 share position in MACK and have requested my broker to reinvest the upcoming $1.06 per share dividend. I may buy back the recently sold 50 shares, as I mentioned earlier, after the ex dividend date depending on far the price falls below the ex dividend adjusted price.
DeleteIMDZ may have a public offering to raise money. The company stated that it had enough cash to fund operations into the second half of 2018.
The last stock offering was in April 2016 at a public offering price of $6.25:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1437786/000119312516712112/d234213d424b5.htm
The IPO was priced at $12 per share back in 2014.
The only other public offering that I found was at $26.5 per share in April 2015:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1437786/000162828015002323/imdz424b4041615.htm
There is also the possibility that it can obtain financing through a partnership. Without funding from another drug company, IMDZ will need to raise cash within the next 6-8 months. None of the pipeline drugs are in Phase III trials so there is a long way to go before the company has an approved product.
With a market cap of $187M at $7.3, the acquisition cost would not be material for larger companies, and IMDZ will not need much success for the price to move up in the absence of being acquired.
One reason for using a basket strategy in the small cap clinical biotech space is that no one really knows who will ultimately succeed or who will fail. I have no idea whether one or more of the IMDZ pipeline drugs will succeed.
The market is expressing skepticism with the price that any will succeed.
The current price is itself indicative of a consensus market opinion that the common stock is more like a warrant or lottery ticket. So the question is how much will I bet, and the answer is not much. And if one of those compounds generates $1B per year in revenues, I would not have to own many shares to have an excellent return.
One approach that I am taking now is to sell some shares and to hold onto some. I can do this cost effectively through commission free trades or using IB's $1 commission for odd lot trades.
I own for example 60 shares of OMER which has done well. I may sell 30 on another pop and then keep 30 to see what happens.
I have followed the same path recently with CYTK and MACK.
I am also eliminating some positions and then buying back at lower prices. I have sold PGNX several times, with the last sell at $10.42:
C. Sold 50 PGNX at $10.42:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/02/observations-and-sample-of-recent_5.html
I just bought back that lot.
The shares have fallen due to disappointing revenues from its one approved drug (Relistor, marketed by Valeant) and less than expected efficacy report for a pipeline compound called Azedra (Phase 2b).
Progenics Pharmaceuticals
$6.99 -0.17 -2.37%
Last Updated: May 19, 2017 4:49 p.m. EDT
http://www.progenics.com/product-pipeline/overview/
I certainly would view PGNX as more risky now than when I last sold shares. The question is how much of the increased risk is priced into the stock at $7 and that depends on factors that require guesses.
IMGN (own 50 shares, small cap biotech lottery ticket basket)
ReplyDeleteIMGN has an ovarian cancer drug that is progressing in mid-state trials.
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170517006236/en/ImmunoGen-Announces-Clinical-Data-Mirvetuximab-Soravtansine-Ovarian
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-cancer-immunogen-idUSKCN18D2Q4
That release was made after the close on 5/17. The shares closed that day at $4.73 and popped to $5.4 the next day before retreating $.15 on Friday.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IMGN/history?p=IMGN
I needed a 50% rise in my 100 share lot in order to sell those shares profitably which occurred earlier this year.
3.C. SOLD 100 IMGN AT $3.55:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/03/observations-and-sample-of-recent_8.html
That has proven to be premature in that the shares closed at $5.25 last Friday.
I currently own 50 shares bought at $1.77 (12/12/16), now up about 196%.
FOLD: Today's largest percentage pop in my small cap biotech basket was Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD):
ReplyDelete$8.41+0.64 (+8.24%)
The company has been making some progress in launching drugs in Europe:
http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/05/09/980918/0/en/Amicus-Therapeutics-Announces-First-Quarter-2017-Financial-Results-and-Corporate-Updates.html
The most recent press release was 3 days ago:
http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/05/19/988168/0/en/Amicus-Therapeutics-Announces-Planned-Analysis-of-Primary-Endpoints-in-Phase-3-Epidermolysis-Bullosa-Study.html
The company did make a presentation today at a UBS conference:
http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/05/10/981738/0/en/Amicus-Therapeutics-to-Present-at-Two-Upcoming-Investor-Conferences.html
I bought and still own 50 shares as part of this lottery ticket basket:
2. Bought 50 FOLD at $5.72:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/434935-south-gent/4898825-update-healthcare-basket-strategy-7-15-16
I have performed a nip and tuck in my bond allocation by selling some bonds, with low current yields, and moving the proceeds into bonds that have higher current yields and YTMs. I am assuming by that reallocation slightly more interest rate risk.
ReplyDeleteI increased my Tennessee municipal bond allocation by another $10K today. Both purchases were 5 bond lots.
One of those bonds was issued by the Health and Education Facilities Board of the Metropolitan Nashville Government. The proceeds were loaned to Vanderbilt University pursuant to an unconditional and unsecured loan agreement.
Coupon 3.25%
Federal Tax and AMT Free According to Bond Counsel (page 12 of offering statement)
Matures 10/1/37
Optional Redemption at Par: On or After 10/1/22 (a possibility)
Credit Ratings:
Fitch at AAA
Moody's at Aa2
S & P at AA
EMMA Page:
https://emma.msrb.org/SecurityView/SecurityDetailsRatings.aspx?cusip=AF11656226BEACC50F1A37ED390F9D73F
Bought 5 at a total cost of 99.95.
++++++
Flynn has refused to produce documents or to answer questions invoking the 5th Amendment. His testimony can not be compelled after asserting that constitutional right, but the protection has far more limited protection to document production.
Supreme Court Decision in
United States v. Hubbell
530 U.S. 27 (2000)
https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/530/27/case.html
Trump Statement on Those Who Invoke the Fifth:
"You see the mob takes the Fifth. "If you're innocent, why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?"
He was then referring to a Clinton aide who invoked the 5th in the email investigation.
No accusation made by Trump against another person applies to Trump.
+++++++++
The Washington Post is reporting this evening that Trump asked the director of national intelligence, Daniel Coats (his appointee), and Adm. Michael S. Rogers, the director of the National Security Agency, to publicly deny the existence of any evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians. This occurred according to two anonymous sources after Comey testified on 3/20/2017 that the FBI was investigating the nature of any links. They refused to do so deeming such a denial to be "inappropriate."
The Post also reports that Trump is about to hire a legal team to help him deal with the investigation.
++++
Manchester Bombing
"At Least 20 Killed After Possible Explosions at Manchester Concert Featuring Ariana Grande"
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/deaths-injuries-confirmed-after-explosions-heard-u-k-concert-featuring-n763286
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/manchester-arena-emergency-services-respond-incident/
"director of national intelligence, Daniel Coats (his appointee), and Adm. Michael S. Rogers, the director of the National Security Agency"
ReplyDeleteDo you have information on what intelligence agencies there are? There seem to be so many.
Listening to news right now as I type. Have to pause to grrr. WHY do media and guest -need- to keep justifying that as "he's not experienced, and always had authoritarian power in his organizations before" so probably he doesn't know better is why he does this? Being an adult spoiled brat, is not a justification for (alleged) interference! He's never read a book or newspaper or heard any stories about how the world works? Even a 10 year old knows if they tell their mom not to tell their dad what they did - it's "interference" and it's -- risky.
(Followed by, he's pandering to his base with the strawman claim that he never mentioned the word Israel, when that's not what anyone alleged.)
It reminds me of media during campaign over and over saying "if he stays on message" like his going off message was NOT A STORY all of it's own.
At any rate, I'm just wondering who all these intelligence people are, relative to the situation.
---
F did a big shake up today. As a F holder, I'm hoping it does shake up the stock price. My impression is they've more progressive than other manufacturers, and a survey apparently showed that -- but most investor money thinks they are behind. So they cited need for better communication as a goal in the shake up. I'm well underwater (bought around 16, 3 years ago now), but just holding. Do you have any auto/F observations?
LMH: The NSA does the electronic interceptions. The Director of National Intelligence is supposed to aggregate and integrate intelligence from all of the intelligence agencies and to provide the President an independent assessment. Dan Coats, its Director, is a cabinet member.
DeleteI did own 175+ Ford shares but sold all of those shares at a $219.9 loss on 2/15/17 when it looked to me that the price was headed lower. The price was $12.61. The loss was lessened somewhat by realizing a profit on one 50 share lot and some lots bought with dividends. The 50 share lot was bought 1/15/16 at $11.79.
Another reason for selling is that new car sales looked to me like they peaked late last year, something that I have mentioned here several times. The prior peaks were near the peak hit last year as shown in this chart:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ALTSALES
I doubt that I would sell at $11 now however, if I still owned shares. I have contemplated buying back one 50 share lot when the price fell below $11 but decided to wait until I see a more positive sales trend than the recent numbers.
LMH: Here is a list of the currently known U.S. intelligence agencies:
Deletehttp://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-17-intelligence-agencies-20170112-story.html
There may be others, off the record.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/05/observations-and-sample-of-recent_23.html
SG - thanks too on Ford. I'm going to call this a mistake in handling. It was one of my first individual buys. Got it right after the 2014 QE ending and right before the market pullback that resulted that fall.
ReplyDeleteGood grief - I went to post and was signed out even though I just posted a moment ago.