Monday, July 3, 2017

Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: (FITB, FNB, OMER, THQ)

Trump: Totally Without Class

Trump has made a large number of disgusting statements and his supporters cheer him on.  


This one is just the latest: 







It is a given that Trump supporters would not be bothered by those tweets or anything else that Trump has said or done or will say and do.   


Dan Scavino, who is Trump's Chief of Social Media, wrote "#DumbAsARockMika and lover #JealousJoe are lost, confused & saddened since @POTUS @realDonaldTrump stopped returning their calls! Unhinged.”


Dan Scavino Jr. (@DanScavino) | Twitter 


A few republicans managed to barely tap Trump's hand in disapproval of those two tweets. 


Trump is after all the heart and soul of the modern day GOP.  


Ben Sasse (R-Kan) possibly had the strongest rebuke: 




Trump Takes MSNBC Feud Into Second Day With Tabloid Charge - Bloomberg


Scarborough, Brzezinski say White House used National Enquirer as threat - Jun. 30, 2017



  
Scarborough, a former republican congressman from Florida's panhandle, basically claims that Trump tried to blackmail him into changing his coverage of Donald. What Happened Between Trump, Morning Joe, and the Enquirer ("Kushner told Scarborough that he would need to personally apologize to Trump in exchange for getting Enquirer owner David Pecker to stop the story. .. Scarborough says he refused, and the Enquirer published the story in print on June 5, headlined “Morning Joe Sleazy Cheating Scandal!”) 

Joe asks what is wrong with Donald? Why is that a question. You do not have to be a head doctor to answer that question beyond any reasonable doubt. 


Donald Trump is not well - The Washington Post-A massive understatement


After creating an uproar among non-Trump voters, Trump issued what I will call a Trump apology: 





"President Trump posted a short video to his Twitter account on Sunday in which he is portrayed wrestling and punching a figure whose head has been replaced by the logo for CNN." Trump Tweets a Video of Him Wrestling ‘CNN’ to the Ground - The New York Times
Lawmakers blast Trump’s ‘crude, false, and unpresidential’ CNN tweet - The Washington Post


Gail Collins noted that Donald expressed his disagreement with one of her columns by sending a copy back to her with his handwritten notations, stating that she was a "dog and liar" and had the "face of a pig"I’ve Overestimated Donald Trump - The New York Times And it is SAD that Heidi Klum is no longer a "10". Heidi Klum responds to Donald Trump - CNN


Kristen Stewart Monologue - SNL - YouTube (talks about Trump's tweets about her)


Bernstein: We are in the midst of a 'malignant presidency' - CNN 


+++++++++++


Trump's Fraudulent Voting Fraud Commission


 Trump’s “election integrity” commission wants every voter’s name, party ID, and address - Vox;


Trump’s voter-fraud commission wants to know voting history, party ID, last 4 digits of Social Security, date of birth, party affiliation and address of every voter in the U.S. - The Washington Post;


The commission requested that this information be forwarded to an email address "unprotected by even basic encryption technology". The Commission's letter to the state election commissions stated clearly that the information would be made public: "Please be aware than any documents that are submitted to the full Commission will also be made available to the public".  


Trump wants to substantiate his claim that he won the popular vote since he believes, without offering any proof, that several million persons voting illegally for Hillary. According to Trump, everyone of those illegal votes were cast for Hillary. 
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Trump and Massive Voter Fraud Allegations-Cover For Voter SuppressionTRANSCRIPT: ABC News Anchor David Muir Interviews President Trump - ABC News

He appointed right wing ideologues to head the commission including the Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach whose efforts to burden the fundamental constitutional right to vote was branded by a federal as a "mass denial of (that) fundamental constitutional right". Fish v. Kobach, 840 F. 3d 710 - Court of Appeals, 10th Circuit 2016  Kobach has spent a great deal of effort and taxpayer money in Kansas to find 9 instances of voting fraud, mostly old republican white men who did not vote for Hillary.


‘Kris Kobach Came After Me for an Honest Mistake’ - POLITICO Magazine


Kris Kobach is a big fraud on Kansas voter fraud | The Kansas City Star  


Trump and the GOP are doing whatever they can to undermine the institutions necessary for a properly functioning democracy. This is the same objective that Putin has which is to undermine American's faith in the voting process and the free press. 



++++++++++


Senate Democrats shine light on health bill’s longer-term effect on Medicaid - The Washington Post (the CBO "make clear that the GOP legislation would squeeze federal Medicaid spending by 35 percent by the end of two decades, compared with current law. .. According to the CBO and other analysts, one ripple effect would be intense pressure on states, forcing them to make hard decisions about cutting benefits, eligibility or payments to doctors and hospitals while trying somehow to make their programs more efficient.")




Analysis | Sarah Huckabee Sanders says Trump has never ‘promoted or encouraged violence.’ She is very wrong.


GOP Activist Who Sought Clinton Emails Cited Trump Campaign Officials 


Trump just made a humiliating economic error in front of South Korea’s president: CNBC ("For many, many years the United States has suffered through massive trade deficits; that's why we have $20 trillion in debt.")  
 


The market is not concerned that Trump will cause a trade war. The facts warrant concern, but it is not certain now that Trump will start one. He is currently making a lot of noise along those lines.   


++++++++++


Economy and Markets


U.S. Forecast: Sixth Consecutive Decline in June for Light Vehicle Sales | Industry content from WardsAuto


U.S. Crude Oil Production May Not Be Growing Quite So Fast - Bloomberg


Trump push for steel tariffs sparks worries about global trade war - MarketWatch


German bonds may offer the clearest warning that the stock market’s bull run is sputtering - MarketWatch


GOP senator rips Trump over sugar deal with Mexico | TheHillTrump touts a sweetheart deal that doesn’t put America First - MarketWatch (basically, Trump has raised sugar prices for consumers to benefit a few sugar farmers including two close friends of his Commerce Secretary who negotiated the deal and larger Trump donors, the so-called Sugar Barons of Florida, 
Sugar Talks May Hint at Trump Approach to U.S.-Mexico Trade - The New York Times). 


China demands US nix arms deal with Taiwan, respect "one-China" policy - CBS News


The next economic crisis could come from trade - Business Insider


The government reported that consumer spending increased .1% in May. 




The personal savings rate was 5.5% (table 1). The PCE Price Index fell by .1%. 


Y-O-Y, the core PCE price index and the PCE price index were up 1.4%.  


Personal Income and Outlays May 2017.pdf


++++++


1.  Intermediate Term Bond/CD Basket Ladder Strategy:

The trades discussed in this section are a continuation of selling some lower current yielding bonds and using the proceeds to generate more current income. 


**I started to become more concerned about a rise in rates after the purchases were made and have continued selling longer duration bonds. 

A. Bought 1 Wells Fargo 3% SU Bond Maturing on 10/23/26


Finra Page: Bond  Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings: 
Moody's at A2

YTM at Total Cost (97.792) = 3.275%
Current Yield = 3.07% 

WFC Analyst Estimates 

This bond and the Citigroup bond discussed below will likely be sold when and if I can do so at 100+. 


B. Bought 1 Citigroup 3.2% SU Bond Maturing on 10/21/26




Issuer:  Citigroup Inc. (C)

FINRA page: Bond  Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at Baa1
S & P at BBB+
Fitch at A
Citigroup Credit Ratings

YTM at Total Cost (97.578) = 3.506%

Current Yield at 3.28%

Citigroup Analyst Estimates  


C. Bought 2 Autozone 3.25% SU Bonds Maturing on 4/15/25




Issuer: AZO Stock Price - AutoZone Inc.

Finra Page: Bond Detail
Credit Ratings: 
Moody's at Baa1
S & P at BBB

YTM at Total Cost (99.738): 3.288%

Current Yield: 3.26%

AZO Analyst Estimates 


D. Sold 1 Centerpoint 1.85% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 6/1/21


Profit Snapshot:   $.73




Issuer: CenterPoint Energy Inc (CNP)

Finra Page: Bond Detail
Fitch Rates CenterPoint Houston's General Mortgage Bonds 'A'

I sold this bond at 98.995, netting 98.795 after Vanguard's $2 brokerage commission. The YTM at 98.795 was 2.168%. The current yield at that price is 1.82%.


I bought this bond at a total cost of 98.616 (2/6/17).


I still own other CNP First Mortgage bonds with higher current yields and YTMs. I currently own 5 CNP first mortgage bonds.


As with other low coupon bonds maturing in 2021 and thereafter, I will be looking for an opportunity to buy the bonds back when and if the price falls below my lowest prior purchase price. I am just raising some cash in hopes of buying at better prices within a few weeks. 


Moreover, for low current yield bond dispositions in my Vanguard accounts, I am not giving up much yield since the funds are redirected into a money market account currently yielding close to 1%. Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund


E. Sold 2 PG 2.7% SU Bonds Maturing on 2/2/26:


The price shown in the following snapshot is adjusted down by $2 for the brokerage commission.




Profit Snapshot: +$26.88




FINRA Page:  Bond Detail


I sold at 99.963, netting 99.863 after a $2 brokerage commission. At 99.863, the YTM was 2.718% as of 6/9/17.


I discussed purchasing this bond in Item # 1.A. My total cost per bond was 98.519. The current yield at that all-in cost is 2.74%



2. Continued to Pare Regional Banks Stock Allocation and Overall Stock Allocation


I am skeptical that Congress will be able to pass major revisions to Dodd-Frank as currently anticipated by the market. 


I have noted that net interest margin has been contracting rather than expanding as predicted by the Stock Jocks who have been deaf to that message.  





10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity-St. Louis Fed




1/3/17

3 Month T Bill: .52%
10 Year Treasury: 2.45%
Difference: 1.93%

6/30/17


3 Month T. Bill 1.03%
10 Year Treasury 2.31% 
Difference  1.28

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity-St. Louis Fed


The yield curve has been contracting rather than expanding. 


Since the underpinnings for the robust rally in regional bank stocks since the election still look like no shows, I have been selling into strength. 


Regional banks have risen in price over the past several days as interest rates rose slightly. 


10 year Treasury: Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates

6/26/17 2.14%
6/30/17 2.31%

SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)

6/26/17 $53.29
6/30/17 $54.95

Profit/Loss Snapshots are available in my Gateway Post:  Stocks, Bonds & Politics: REGIONAL BANK BASKET STRATEGY GATEWAY POST


Net Regional Bank Realized Profit (as of 6/8/17) = $38,386.47  

Start Date: mid-2009 

A. Sold 50 FITB at $24.57 (6/8/17): Used Commission Free Trade 


Profit Snapshot: $443.21




Bought 50 FITB at $15.71: 
Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 2/8/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha


FITB Stock Price - Fifth Third Bancorp 


FITB Analyst Estimates 


FITB Trading Profits: $960.83 (mostly from two 50 share lots)


I sold another 50 share lot earlier this year: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 2.C Sold 50+ FITB at $27.53 (profit $481.05)-


B. SOLD 57+ FNB-Satellite Taxable Account



Profit Snapshot: +$335.42



FNB Stock Price - F.N.B. Corp. 

FNB Analyst Estimates
2017 First Quarter Results

I discussed buying 50 of these shares here: Item #  5 Added 50 FNB at $7.8 (7/20/2010 Post)


FNB cut its quarterly dividend from $.24 to $.12 per share in 2009 and has not raised it since that slash. FNB Corp | Dividend History | Dividend Channel As I have stated repeatedly, that is a huge negative IMO.


I discussed this bank in these recent posts:


Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item 3.A. Sold 50 FNB at $15.53 (3/16/17 Post);


Item # 1 Sold 50 FNB-Recently Bought in a Roth IRA Account: Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 3/17/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha;


Item # 5 Bought 50 FNB at $11.13: Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 1/28/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha


FNB Trading Profits to Date: $888.77


C. Sold 232+ THQ at $17.59+:


Trade Snapshot:




Profit Snapshot: +$157.31





Quote: THQ Stock Price - Tekla Healthcare Opportunities Fund-A leveraged CEF


Of those 232+ shares, 32+ shares were purchased with monthly dividends. I purchased two 100 shares in the open market. The last 100 share lot was purchased at $16.66 (7/18/16) and was mentioned in a comment blog. The other 100 share lot purchase was not discussed and was bought at a total cost of $17.19 per share (10/22/15).


The expense ratio is too high particularly given the fund's performance.


DATA as of 6/12/17:

Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $19.29
Closing Market Price: $17.61
Discount: -8.71%
THQ Tekla Healthcare Page at CEFConnect


Shareholder Report for the Period Ending 3/31/17


Expense ratio numbers with and without interest expenses can be found at page 25. The net unrealized loss was then at $22.897+M.


When I sold these shares, the YTD total return was 17.38% based on price: Tekla Healthcare Opportunities Fund (THQ) Total Returns


D. Sold 118+ THQ Shares in Roth IRA Account at $18.7 (6/23/17):


Trade Snapshot:




Profit Snapshot: +$189.68





I still own THQ shares in another taxable account. I will consider buying back shares when and if the discount expands to greater than 13% and the stock price falls below $16.5. I would also prefer to see a net unrealized gain when buying more shares rather than current net unrealized loss as of 3/31/17. The dividend can only be supported by trading gains.


E. SOLD 30 OF 60 OMER at $20.61


In my IB account, I bought this lot at $9.35 on 1/19/17: 




Sold at $20.61 (6/29/17)


Profit Snapshot: +$335.81





I still own the 30 shares bought at $9.03 that was discussed in this post: Item # 1: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Observations, Ruminations and Sample Trades (SNY, OMER, PWFPRT, THO:CA, G:CA )-JANUARY 18, 2016 I may go ahead and sell that lot, but have made no decision yet.   


As I mentioned in a comment to my last post, OMER was the subject of a short attack by someone named "Art Doyle" who argues that the company is a fraud in reports published at the subscription service Scribd. Omeros continues sell-off from recent 80% runup, shares retrace 23% in five days, bearish report making the rounds -Seeking Alpha Doyle slapped a $1 per share price target. 


Currently, "Doyle's" reports consist of two parts with a third part coming. Those first two reports are written in a clownish and juvenile manner. However, they are jammed packed with information. 


I have a  Scribd subscription and have read both Parts 1 and 2. My subscription allows me to read three books and listen to one audiobook per month for an $8.99 monthly fee. There is a considerable number of investment type reports that are published there as well which is the main reason I subscribe to that service rather than others. I am currently listening to the audiobook of 
The Wright Brothers written and narrated by David McCulloughReview: ‘The Wright Brothers’ by David McCullough - The New York Times


Since I do not have any background in medicine or science, as I have made abundantly clear many times, I am not capable of drawing any firm conclusions about Doyle's reports or OMER's vigorous denial. 


I would note that the last filed 10-Q has a going concern statement that ends with this statement: "We have therefore concluded there is substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern through May 10, 2018." Page 7,  10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/17 


The company had $33+M in cash and short term investments as of 3/31/17, which probably does not provide a sufficient cushion to advance OMS721 through clinical trials and FDA new drug applications for multiple indications without a substantial capital raise. 


I would also note that the ongoing clinical trials for OMS721 have only a small number of patients enrolled in them. 


Omer's only approved product, Omidria, is being challenged by at least one generic company. Doyle asserts that Omidria is merely a combination of two generic drugs. Doyle does not mention that a formulation patent can be secured for a mixture of non-patented drugs. OMER has currently 6 Orange Book patents for this compound. Doyle instead mentions that a compounding pharmacy may mix those two generic drugs at lower costs than a vial of Omidria. OMER discusses that possibility as follows: 







Pages 19-20, 26 10-K


OMER acknowledges in its 10-K and 10-Q filings that this compound will lose its pass through status as of 1/1/12018 which will likely cause the price to decline, possibly a far more serious issue than competition from compounding pharmacies:



Page 6 2016 Annual Report
It seems to me that it would be high risk for a physician to use a compounding facility and for a compounding facility to mix the compounds in a way that avoids violating a patent.

Many of  Doyle's criticisms leveled at other pre-clinical and the clinical compounds allegedly in phase 2 trials (referring to OMS824, OMS405 and OMS201) seem justified to me, but I would want to hear what OMER has to say about those drugs before reaching a firm opinion. OMER does not have the cash to advance any preclinical drugs into trials and have been listed as preclinical compounds for years.  


I would not assign any value to those drugs referenced in the preceding paragraph anyway, so I do not view those contentions as relevant now other than on the issue of management's credibility.


It all comes down to OMS721 in multiple indications: FDA Grants Breakthrough Therapy Designation to Omeros’ MASP-2 Inhibitor OMS721 for the Treatment of IgA NephropathyOmeros Announces OMS721 Presentation at 54th ERA-EDTA Congress 


The most bullish analyst is probably the one at WBB who has a $75 price target: Omeros Corporation's Breakthrough Becomes a Clear Danger to Alexion: WBB - Smarter Analyst


Omeros Corporation (OMER) Accuses Short Seller of Manipulation - Smarter Analyst


Omeros Releases Statement in Response to Recent False Report (no rebuttal facts are contained therein)


OMER did rise almost 10% in price in early morning trading last Thursday after Omeros issued the preceding linked press release early on that day (6/29/17). Investors sold into what was initially close to a 10% stock price rally, knocking the shares into negative territory by mid-day. The shares later recovered to close up some.   

There was  enough in Doyle's reports to cause me to sell this 30 share lot and to book over a 120+% gain in less than 6 months. Some of the issues raised in the "Doyle" reports are acknowledged in OMER's SEC filings as noted above. 


The shares continued their decline last Friday: OMER $19.90 -$0.68 -3.33%



3. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:

I am receiving incrementally higher yields with shorter maturities. 


Proceeds upon maturity will be invested in very short term CDs. (meaning 3 months or less)



A. Bought 2 Bank of North Carolina 1.05% CDs Maturing on 9/15/17-A 3 month CD (monthly interest)-A Roth IRA Account:





I have two .75% Sterling Bank CDs maturing on 9/11/17. I also have two First Bank .65% CDs maturing on 9/15/17, and a Bank of China .75% CD maturing on 9/15/17. All of those CDs had six month terms.   


B. Bought 2 Bank of India 1.1% CDs Maturing on 9/13/17 (3 month CD)




C. Bough 3 Bank of Baroda .9% CDs Maturing on 7/27/17 (one month CD)




Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.

7 comments:

  1. OMER: A recent filing does show that OMS721 is enrolling patients with Atypical Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome (aHUS) in a phase 3 trial. The study design is outlined in that filing:

    https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03205995

    The administration will be by "Intravenous loading dose followed by daily subcutaneous injections"

    This filing answers some of the attacks made by "Art Doyle" regarding no Phase 3 trial, no design for a phase 3 trial and the subcutaneous injection delivery method.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The OMER reports written by "Art Doyle" have been taken off the Scribd website and are no longer available anywhere as far as I can tell. OMER's lawyers have apparently been busy.

      Section 47 U.S.C.A. § 230 (C)(1) provides that "No provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as the publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider."

      https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230

      Omeros Corporation (OMER)
      $20.21 +$0.30 (+1.53%)
      as of close on 7/3/17

      The stocks appears like it wants to stabilize near current levels.

      +++++

      Energy and financials led the DJIA and SPX higher today while technology led the Nasdaq lower. There has been an ongoing sector rotation into energy and financial stocks and out of technology stocks.

      WTI stabilized in the low 40s and started to move back up, possibly in response to the EIA's downward revision for prior monthly production estimates referred to in my post.

      AMU has made a good move since I bought back shares at $17.58 (6/22/17) which I briefly discussed in this comment.

      https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/06/observations-and-sample-of-recent_20.html?showComment=1498059661765#c3075614545775108808

      I also mentioned buying ENB and I bought back 50 FENY at $17.85 as well. This kind of minor activity is mostly just a knee jerk response to rampant pessimism. I am going to add energy stocks when WTI craters to $40 or below. Those are trades.

      Energy stocks are in a bear market. I sold FENY, for example, at $27.81 (8/1/2014):

      5. Sold 50 FENY at $27.81
      https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/search/label/FENY

      The decline to $17.85 almost three years later is about -35.8%. Until energy stocks show me that the bear market cycle is kaput, which is not the case yet IMO, these purchases are just trades.

      U.S. interest rates have been darting up some, pulled up by about a 100% increase in the German ten year yield since 6/26/17:

      http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkde-10y/charts?countrycode=bx

      The U.S. ten year yield closed today at a 2.35% yield, up from 2.14% on 6/26/17.

      This abrupt change in the direction of interest rate movements has caused me to pare my long bond duration some, just in case it continues.

      Delete
  2. How is it that people can write anything on the Internet, and not be held accountable?

    Does the US Code section you cited mean that nothing on the Internet should be considered to be "speech" or "published"?

    What exactly is it then, and what about the real world consequences (harm) that is done by it? Short sellers cash in by putting out false, unsubstantiated allegations that move markets and damage a company's reputation overnight: Who is accountable?

    Who is accountable for the dysfunction of the President, the highest office in the land, the leader of the free world? He Tweets, people pay attention. He loves it.

    He sets a terrible example for our children. He legitimizes sexism, bigotry, intolerance, incivility, crudeness and rude behavior. Malignant indeed.

    Computers and the Internet have fundamentally altered the way humans process information, with deep and widespread ramifications that have not been studied, or even acknowledged.

    We are in uncharted territory.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cathie: "Art Doyle" could be sued for defamation for publishing his reports on Scribd.

      Scribd was only a distributor of that content, exercised no editorial control over those reports and did not approve them prior to publication. It is like the SeekingAlpha Instablog service in that respect or YouTube. In those examples, the distributor is immune from defamation liability, and the distributor of content can not be sued by the author for taking the content down for the reasons specified in the statute which includes "otherwise objectionable content".

      Scribd's contracts with those who upload content to its website may give them the right to remove content claimed to be libelous.

      Trump's daily approval rating measured by Gallup rose after his tweets about Mika/Joe and the CNN assault video.

      Delete
  3. Hello South Gent,

    I wonder how seriously you thought the European Central Bank is in starting to either decrease QE or slightly raising rates. I read what was written about the recent Draghi speech but really it is difficult for me to understand. I see you are selling longer duration bonds and I am concerned that this is the start of the process that will cause at least a real flattening of the yield curve.

    You have any sense of how serious the ECB is in following the US albeit slowly.

    Thank you

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/06/27/draghi-hints-ecb-may-stop-or-even-reverse-qe-euro-bounces-in-response/#364d3a76ae1d

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sam: It is like trying to put toothpaste back in the tube after it is squeezed out.

      The EU economies are improving, and there is no legitimate reason for the ECB to continue NIRP and QE IMO.

      Draghi simply pointed out that the ECB will gradually withdraw those extremely abnormal policies which together have anchored European sovereign bond yields at extremely low levels.

      The German 10 year was at about .25% on 6/25/17 and is now over .47%. That .47% yield is extremely abnormal by pre-Near Depression historical experience.

      The U.S. rates have been influenced by the NIRP and QE programs by several European CBs and the BOJ, with the ECB probably being the most important restraint for U.S. rates.

      However, there have been a number of false starts and head fakes over the past several years.

      And the ECB policies are still in effect and may not change in a material way anytime soon.

      The earliest withdrawal of the ECB's QE program may be late this year. NIRP may continue after the ECB ends its QE program.

      The FED is providing an umbrella for other CBs to start backing out of their extremely abnormal monetary policies.

      The US Dollar Index has been in a meaningful decline since hitting 103+ last September.

      http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/charts

      It is impossible IMO to pinpoint a single reason. The primary reasons are probably eroding faith in the U.S. worldwide and increasing faith in the EU recovery.

      U.S. Image Suffers as Publics Around World Question Trump’s Leadership: Pew Poll

      http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/26/u-s-image-suffers-as-publics-around-world-question-trumps-leadership/

      Delete
  4. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/07/observations-and-sample-of-recent_5.html

    ReplyDelete