Thursday, February 15, 2018

Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: COTY, ENB, ENY, FHB, GPT, IDV, LXP, MRK, NVS, ONB, SNR, VNQ

Economy:

CPI increased .5% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January. For the twelve month period ending in January, CPI rose 2.1%. Core CPI rose .3% in January and was up 1.8% Y-O-Y. 





Household Debt Jumps as 2017 Marks the Fifth Consecutive Year Of Positive Annual Growth Since Post-Recession Deleveraging - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

U.S. retail sales slump in January, and December’s initial gain was erased - MarketWatch



Retail Sales-Census Bureau.pdf

One danger is that rising consumer debt levels and interest costs will combine to slow down consumer spending. Consumer confidence could be sapped by continued volatility in equity markets with a strong overall downside bias.


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Market Commentary and Markets:


Investors cut bond market allocation to 20-year low amid fears of a 'crash': CNBC ("reduced their bond portfolios to a net 69 percent underweight, the lowest since the survey began two decades ago. The survey polled 196 panelists with $575 billion in assets under management.")


Hedge Funds' Biggest Short in Bonds Faces Make-or-Break Moment - Bloomberg


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Portfolio Management:

The stronger than expected CPI increase for January caused a pop in interest rates yesterday. The FED will increase the FF rate by .25% in March.

Continued strength in the economy through 2018 will likely result in at least a .75% increase in FF rate this year. The ten year treasury yield is likely to bust through 3.04% soon, which would be the first higher high yield since 1981 using a long term 10 year treasury chart.

My portfolio weighting in fixed income remains concentrated in 2018-2019 maturities, as I expect a persistent uptrend in interest rates across the maturity spectrum in 2018. While those mostly two bond or CD purchases will decline some in value with a continued uptrend in short term rates, the decline will not last long given the short term maturities.

I will continue to lower interest rate risk through a ladder strategy, where I have several bonds and CDs mature virtually every week. A one year CD bought last year in February would generally have a 1% or 1.1% coupon while the current 1 year maturities are in the 1.9% to 2% range. 

I am down to owning only 1 equity preferred stock, a 50 share position in BPFHP which went ex dividend for its quarterly distribution yesterday. Boston Private Financial Holdings Inc. 6.95% Non-Cumulative Preferred Series D (BPFHP) I am still anticipating that this dividend will be the next to last one given the issuer's right to call on or after 6/15/18: Prospectus. I still own a few Canadian reset equity preferred stocks. 


While fixed coupon equity preferred stocks have fallen some in price, they are not close to the low prices reached when the ten year treasury hit 3.04% on 12/31/13. I am monitoring prices for fixed coupon exchange traded bonds and preferred stocks more closely now for major gaps down in price.

The rising interest rate scenario makes regional banks more attractive and bond like common stocks less so. Regional banks are in general major beneficiaries of the corporate tax reduction and will further benefit from the deregulation push that will likely involve major modifications to the Dodd-Frank law.

I still have an abundance of free commission trades, but all of them expire in August. I have decided to use all of them making small lot purchases and averaging down when and if the price continues to decline.


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Trump as the Number One Fake News Originator:

Donald will never cease to call the free press the Fake News Media, though he has not recently specifically called the press "the enemy of the people".

Possibly someone told Donald that Joseph Goebbels, Lenin and Stalin made that phrase popular among dictators and want to be dictators like Trump. History of Trump's phrase an 'enemy of the people' - Business Insider

Trump's most recent attack on the free press for publishing information that he does not like: 



The overt and underlying message that is repeated by Trump over and over again is that only Donald needs to be consulted for the truth. The Fake News Media, which includes virtually all sources of information, can be ignored altogether. The GOP has been indoctrinating the faithful on that message starting with the Nixon administration and it has been a wildly successful strategy for them, as was their Southern strategy


The Fake News originates from Donald and his extremely limited approved information sources which includes Fox and Friends and Sean Hannity. 


The following is just one recent example of Trump's Fake News.    


The FBI recently released the results of its comprehensive investigation into the death of a border patrol employee Rogelio Martinez.


This is what the FBI found:


"To date none of the more than 650 interviews completed, locations searched, or evidence collected and analyzed have produced evidence that would support the existence of a scuffle, altercation, or attack on Nov. 18, 2017" 


Trump Pledged Justice For Border Patrol Agent But No Evidence Of Homicide Found-NPR


F.B.I. Finds No Evidence of Attack in Death of Border Agent - The New York Times

FBI: No evidence of attack in Border Patrol agent's death - ABC News


Border Patrol agent died in fall, according to memo contradicting Trump’s claim of attack - The Washington Post ("Kevin McAleenan, the acting commissioner of the Border Patrol, told his staff this week that the men fell into a nine-foot-deep culvert on a pitch-black night.")


Shortly after the incident, Donald tweeted the following comment: 

The surviving agent, who does not remember anything now, told the dispatcher that "We ran into a culvert". I do not know whether he was driving. 

The conclusion that illegal immigrants caused the death was reached by Donald, Ted Cruz, the Texas Governor, Sean Hannity and similar ilk based on no evidence. Instead, their ideology dictated their non-factually based conclusions which is their standard modus operandi.  


Donald will frequently use the death of some unfortunate soul to lobby for the wall. It is totally irrelevant to him whether the death would have occurred with or without the wall in place. It is also repulsive to non-Trump supporters.  


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The Trump appointed FBI Director testified on Tuesday that the FBI submitted a partial report on Rob Porter to the White House in March 2017 and completed its investigation in July 2017. 


The Trump WH claims that they were first contacted in the 2017 summer and the investigation was never completed. The WH knew that the FBI would not give Porter a security clearance, yet continued to allow him access to classified material. 


FBI's Christopher Wray contradicts White House's account of Rob Porter’s security clearance-The Washington PostFBI director contradicts White House's Porter timeline-CNN


Porter was up for promotion despite abuse allegations - CNN 


So Trump et. al. are lying again. A fair conclusion to be drawn is that Trump et. al. were not concerned about the abuse allegations until they were revealed by news reports; and even then their first instinct was to rally around Porter which is what they in fact did initially. 

Trump did say yesterday that he was against spousal abuse. That was to dispel the rumor that he was for it. 


+++ 

Observations show sea levels rising-climate change is accelerating it 


Scott Pruitt suggests climate change could benefit humans 


At this point in history, it would be fair to assume now that all republican politicians and probably over 70% of republican tribe members are in fact climate change deniers and will never accept the science that contradicts their opinions on this matter until the world is well past the point of no return.  


Trump Wants To Give Ryan Zinke The Power To Approve Pipelines In National Parks 


Trump budget would boost defense funding, slash domestic spending (big boosts for defenses, slashes in Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, Public Broadcasting and other social programs); 


Trump's budget at least provides a clear statement of what the GOP really wants to do. 


Trump still unconvinced of 2016 Russian election meddling-CNN 


House Russia investigation has 'abundance' of evidence against Trump, says top Democrat

Trump's budget would end student loan forgiveness program: CNBC


Trump’s Longtime Lawyer Says He Paid Stormy Daniels Out of His Own Pocket (So do I believe that Cohen paid Stormy $130K from his bank account and was not reimbursed somehow by Trump? If that is true, did he make what amounts to an undisclosed campaign contribution to Trump's campaign?) The interesting piece of information from Cohen is his statement that the neither the Trump campaign nor the Trump organization reimbursed him. What about Donald? Common Cause has initiated a lawsuit alleging a campaign finance violation in failing to report this $130K payment. 


Common Cause-Trump Attorney Appears to Have Made Illegal Contribution to Trump Campaign With Hush Money Payment to Stormy Daniels

Now, none of that matters to the evangelicals who support Donald no matter what he does.  

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1. Small Ball-REGIONAL BANK BASKET STRATEGY:


A. Added 10 FHB at $28.4 and 5 shares at $27.7-Used Fidelity Commission Free Trade:


  

Quote: First Hawaiian Inc. (FHB)

These were automatic purchases after the price fell below $28.5 and then $28. The next purchase would be a 10 share lot between $26-$27.


I mentioned the $28.5 target level for another 10 share purchase when I discussed buying the first 10 share lot here: Item # 1.A. Bought 50 First Hawaiian at $29 and 10 at $29.11-Used Commission Free Trades (12/21/2017 Post)


I now own 25 shares in this account, with an average cost per share of $28.54 and will buy up to 50 shares.


I also own 50 shares in my Schwab account.


I sold 100 shares as a short trade in my Vanguard account at $30.11.



I am not going to repeat the discussion that can be found in the above linked post. Instead, I will just summarize the 4th quarter earnings report and the recent dividend increase.

Dividend: FHB recently raised its quarterly rate to $.24 per share from $.22. 


Dividend Yield: The yield is about 3.36% at a $28.54 TC per share. 


Last Earnings Report


"Core net income for the quarter ended December 31, 2017 and the full year 2017, which primarily excludes the impact of a one-time charge to provision for income taxes of $47.6 million due to the revaluation of certain tax-related assets at the projected lower corporate tax rate resulting from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, was $59.2 million, or $0.42 per diluted share, and $230.4 million, or $1.65 per diluted share, respectively."



NIM 2.99% (low)
Efficiency Ratio 47.5% (excellent)
Charge Off Ratio .17% (good)
NPA Ratio .08% (excellent) 
ROA (core) 1.16% (okay)
ROE (core) 9.13% (below average)
ROE Tangible Equity (core): 14.9% (fine)
Total Capital Ratio: 13.5% (okay)

Since FHB had a deferred tax asset that had to be revalued due to the lower corporate tax rate, GAAP earnings and other financial metrics  were distorted by a $47.6 non-cash charge to earnings: 

"The provision for taxes in the fourth quarter of 2017 included a $47.6 million charge due to the revaluation of certain tax-related assets at the projected lower corporate tax rate resulting from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.  Excluding the one-time charge, the effective tax rate for the fourth quarter of 2017 was 37.1% compared with 37.7% in the previous quarter and 39.8% percent in the same quarter last year.  Excluding the one-time charge in the fourth quarter of 2017, the effective tax rate for the full year 2017 was 37.2% compared with 38.1% in 2016." (emphasis added)

FHB will be a beneficiary of the lower corporate federal income tax rate. 

First Hawaiian, Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Financial Results and Increases Dividend by 9.1% 


JPM downgraded the stock to neutral after this report. I do not have access to that report. FHB has anemic loan growth and a below average NIM, but I would focus more on the positives including the low charge-offs and non-performing loans, the significant increases in net income due to the lower corporate tax rate, and the excellent efficiency ratio. I recognize the problems too.  


Closing Price Yesterday (2/14/18):  FHB $28.35 +$0.20 0.71% 

B. Bought 10 ONB at $16.75:




QUOTE: Old National Bancorp (ONB)


ONB is the holding company for Old National Bank, headquartered in Evansville, Indiana close to a casino where I like to gamble.


Old National has grown in geographic footprint through a series of acquisitions and now has 191 branches in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. 


Old National Bank Mergers and Acquisitions


DIVIDEND: Quarterly at $.13


Old National Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend (ex date 2/28/18)


Dividend Yield at $16.75 TC = 3.1%


Last Discussed:


Item 2.A. Eliminated ONB-Sold 50 Shares at $18.55 (2/27/17 Post)(profit snapshot=$312.97)


Most Recent Purchase Discussions


Item # 2. Averaged Down: Bought 50 ONB at $12.25-Update For Regional Bank Basket As Of 1/19/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha


Item # 2. Bought 50 ONB at $13.1: Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 1/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha


Item # 5. Bought in Roth IRA: 50 ONB at $11.38:Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 1/28/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha


Trading Profits to Date: $757.11


Last Earnings Report


Old National’s 4th quarter includes strong commercial loan growth and another successful partnership  


ONB had to record a non-cash charge of $39.3M relating to the revaluation of its deferred tax asset.  


"Also included in the 4thquarter were the following pre-tax charges: $11.9 million for merger and integration, $3.0 million for branch consolidations, $1.6 million in severance, $1.3 million for Foundation funding and $0.7 million for a client experience improvement initiative." 


ONB recently completed the acquisition of Anchor Bancorp.   


On a GAAP basis, E.P.S. for the 4th quarter was ($.13). Ex-items, E.P.S. was reported at $.22 per share.  The extraordinary items make the ROA, ROE, E.P.S. and efficiency ratio numbers for the quarter worthless. 


The charge-off ratio was excellent at .03%. The NPL ratio was too high at 1.3%. NIM was reported at 3.47%.


The capital ratios are pedestrian. 




Overall, I have a slightly unfavorable opinion of this bank which explains the 10 share purchase. I want lower prices before buying more. 


The most recent acquisition was Anchor Bancorp. 


Anchor Acquisition Announcement:  Old National partners with Anchor Bank, expands into Minnesota’s Twin Cities (with "$2.1 billion in total assets, $1.6 billion in total loans, $1.7 billion in deposits, and $164 million in common shareholder’s equity as of June 30, 2017, Anchor is a bank holding company with Anchor Bank, N.A. (“Anchor Bank”) as its wholly-owned subsidiary. Founded in 1967 and with 18 total branches, Anchor Bank is one of the largest community banks headquartered in the Twin Cities, and also serves Mankato, Minnesota. Anchor Bank has no affiliation with the former AnchorBank in Madison, Wisconsin, which Old National acquired in 2016.")


Historical Annual Tax Rates: ONB will be a beneficiary of lower federal tax rates: 



Closing Price Yesterday:  ONB $17.55 +$0.35 +2.03% 

2. SMALL BALL- Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy:


REITs are in a major downtrend as interest rates, so I am just nibbling for now.  

A. Small Lot LXP "Buying Program" Using Commission Free Trades in Fidelity Taxable Account


Quote:  Lexington Realty Trust  (LXP)


As shown in this snapshot of small ball buys, LXP is one of the equity REITs whose stock has been hammered recently:



I will continue to add in small lots, using commission free trades, but only at lower prices. I am set up to reinvest the dividend now which I did not do for the few shares owned at the last ex dividend date which was on 12/28/17.  


Average Cost Per Share = $9.07

Dividend: Quarterly at $.1775 ($.71 annually)


Dividend Yield at $9.07 AC = 7.828%


In Item # 1 (1/4/18 Post), I discussed this REIT in more detail.


In 2017 the dividends paid last year were supported in material part by a return of capital. The ROC component is not taxable as a dividend but does reduce the cost basis.



Lexington Realty Trust Final Dividend Allocation for 2017


B. Added 10 SNR at $6.9-Used Commission Free Trade:




Quote: New Senior Investment Group (SNR)

Website: New Senior Investment Group
Property Map | New Senior Investment Group
2017 Third Quarter Investor Presentation.PDF

In this account, my average cost per share is currently at $8.23 per share.



I will sell the 50 share lot bought at $8.79 when and if the prices goes above $9.

New Senior Announces $296 Million of Asset Sales Under Contract (10/5/17 Press Release)  


"On November 1, 2017, the Company sold nine AL/MC properties in the Managed Properties segment for a purchase price of $109,500 and expects to recognize a gain on sale of approximately $7,000. In connection with this sale, the Company repaid approximately $79,000 of debt." Page 18 10-Q for the Q-E 9/30/17 under "Subsequent Events"


I have not seen any press release announcing the sale of $186M of six triple net leased properties that was included in that $296M asset sale announcement. Those properties are leased to Life Care Services who is listed as the buyer. New Senior to Sell Holiday, LCS Properties for $296 Million - Senior Housing News


2017 Third Quarter Results


Closing Price Day of Trade (2/9/18): SNR $6.98 -$0.05 -0.71%

Last DiscussedItem 2.A. Added 20 SNR at $7.65 (12/26/17 Post)


Last Substantive DiscussionItem 4.A. Bought 50 SNR at $8.2k (11/9/17 Post)

Links to Sell Discussions:

Item # 4.A. Sold 100 SNR at $10.44 (8/7/17 Post)

Item # 6 Sold 100 SNR at $11.76 and Item # 7 Sold 50 SNR at $11.85Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 7/28/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

South Gent's Comment Blog # 2 (noting a 50 share sell transaction at $12.3 on 9/16/16 in a Vanguard Roth IRA)

Net Realized Gains to Date: $468.18 (very hard to generate profits)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.26, likely to be cut soon


Assuming no cut, which is not going to happen, the dividend yield at $6.9 would be about 15.07%.


The current dividend is simply not sustainable. If the dividend is maintained at $.26, I would not regard that circumstance as a positive one since it would be most imprudent. 


The next earnings release date is before the market opens on 2/23/18. New Senior Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Earnings Release Date and Conference Call I anticipate that a dividend cut will be announced at that time. My best guess is a cut to $.15 or $.16 per share. At a $.6 annual dividend, down from the current $1.04, the yield at $6.9 would be about 8.7% which is at least comfortably below AFFO.


Last Ex-Dividend Date: 12/7/17


Tax Classification of Dividend Payments:


The entire dividend paid in 2017 was classified as a return of capital: New Senior Announces Tax Treatment of 2017 Dividends The cost basis for shares owned in a taxable account will be reduced by the applicable ROC amount.


For 100 shares owned for the entire year, for example, the total dividend was $1.04 per share or $104. The cost basis would be lowered by $1.04 per share and no tax would apply to the $104 received in dividends. When the shares are sold, the profit will be greater, or the loss lower, than it otherwise would have been without the ROC adjustment to the cost basis.  


C. ADDED 5 GPT at $22.61-Used Commission Free Trade




Quote: Gramercy Property Trust  (GPT)


This brings me up to 35 shares with an average cost per share of $24.25.


The dividend yield at a TC of $24.25 is about 6.19%, assuming a continuation of the current quarterly dividend of $.375 per share ($1.5 annually)


D. Added 5 VNQ at $72.4-Commission Free ETF for Vanguard Customers:




Quote: Vanguard Real Estate ETF Overview


Sponsor's Webpage: Vanguard (.12% expense ratio)


This brings me up to 30 shares, all bought in 5 share lots while averaging down from my first five lot purchase made on 1/25/18.


Fidelity has a similar REIT ETF that can be bought commission free by their customers provided the shares are held for at least 30 days. FREL | ETF Snapshot - Fidelity


VNQ pays quarterly dividends. The VNQ dividend will be assigned the tax characteristics of the dividends paid by the owned stocks which will generally include a return of capital ("ROC") component. That part of VNQ's dividend classified as ROC will reduce the cost basis of VNQ's shares:


"Vanguard REIT Index Fund pays quarterly distributions consisting of dividend income, return of capital, and capital gains. However, the tax characteristics of these distributions cannot be determined until after the end of the year since the REITs in which the fund invests do not designate the composition (i.e., dividend income, return of capital, and capital gains) of their payments until the new calendar year." Vanguard-REIT Index Fund disclaimer


2017 Total Dividend = $3.5136



The Vanguard website does not currently have the tax classifications of those dividends.

If I just took the 2017 dividend and my $72.4 cost per share from this last 5 share purchase, the dividend yield based on last year's total dividend amount is about 4.853% which includes the ROC component.

3. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:

A. Bought 1 Caterpillar Financial Services 1.9% SU Bond Maturing on 3/22/19



FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Issuer: Wholly Owned Subsidiary of Caterpillar Inc., which does not guarantee the bonds

Credit Ratings: 


Bought at a Total Cost of 99.817
YTM at TC Then at 2.059%
Current Yield at TC = 1.9035%

B. Bought 1 McDonalds 2.2% SU Bond Maturing on 5/26/2020:


As time moves closer to maturity and assuming the price falls some, I will probably use proceeds from maturing issues to buy more. At Interactive Brokers and Fidelity, I pay $1 per bond so there is no discounted commission for buying more than 1 bond. Buying 5 bonds one-at-a-time results in the same brokerage commission as buying 5 bonds in one trade. 



FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)


Issuer: McDonald's Corp.  (MCD)

MCD Analyst Estimates

Credit Ratings:




Bought at a Total Cost of 99.641

YTM at TC Then at 2.358%
Current Yield at TC = 2.2079%

I did previously sell 2 of these bonds at 100.918. Item 6.B. (9/21/17 Post) Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: ORKLY The YTM at that price was 1.838%.


I will be looking to add  another 1 bond lot at lower total cost number than 99.641, preferably closer to 99. 


C. Bought 1 Wells Fargo 2.3% CD (monthly interest payments) Maturing on 1/31/20:




D. Bought 1 Citigroup 2.45% SU Bond Maturing on 1/20/20-A Roth IRA Account:




FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)


Issuer: Citigroup Inc. (C)

C Analyst Estimates
Citigroup Reports Fourth Quarter 2017 Financial Results

Credit Ratings:




Bought at a Total Cost of 99.996
YTM & Current Yield Effectively Coupon Yield of 2.45% at Total Cost

E. BOUGHT 2 JP Morgan 2.2% SU Bonds Maturing on 10/22/19:




FINRA Page: Bond Detail


Issuer: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

JPM Analyst Estimates

Credit Ratings:




Bought at a Total Cost of 99.793

YTM at TC Then at 2.321%
Current Yield at TC = 2.2046%

F. Bought 2 American International Group 2.3% SU Bonds Maturing on 7/16/19:



Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)


Issuer: American International Group Inc. (AIG)

AIG Analyst Estimates

Credit Ratings:





Bought at a Total Cost of 99.851

YTM at TC Then at 2.403%
Current Yield at TC = 2.3034%

G. Bought 1 Dow Chemical 2.5% SU Bond Maturing on 10/15/19:


Dow Chemical is now part of DowDuPont Inc. (DWDP ).


Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)


Credit Ratings:




Bought at a Total Cost of 99.975

YTM at TC Then at 2.514%
Current Yield at 2.5006%

H. Bought 2 Live Oak Banking 1.65% CDs (monthly interest payments) Maturing on 8/9/18:




Holding Company: Live Oak Bancshares Inc. (LOB) - MarketWatch

LOB Analyst Estimates

I. Bought 2 Bank of India 1.45% CDs Maturing on 4/3/18 (2 month CDs):




4. Sold 51+ IDV Shares at $33.48 (commission free ETF at Fidelity):




Quote: iShares International Select Dividend ETF (IDV)


Profit Snapshot: +$242.33




Rationale: Profit taking and some concern that the USD's decline may reverse. IDV is a USD priced ETF that owns foreign stocks.  

5. Ingesting Microscopic Crumbs Basket Strategy Using Commission Free Trades:


A. Bought 10 COTY at $16.92:





Quote: Coty Inc. Cl A  (COTY)


Closing Price Yesterday (2/14/18):  COTY $21.25 $0.69 +3.36%

I just sold 20 shares at Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item 1.D. Sold 20 COTY at  $20.89 (1/28/18 POST)(profit snapshot= $80.61)


Maybe I could have splurged and bought back 20 shares rather than just 10 at $16.92, but Left Brain is a stickler for target prices. The next purchase had to be below $16.78. 


Last Discussed: Item # Bought 10 COTY at $16.94 and 10 at $16.78  (11/30/17 Post)


After I bought this lot, COTY reported earnings for its second fiscal quarter ending 12/31/17 and the stock popped in response.


Last Earnings ReportCoty Inc. Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2018 Results




B. Bought Back 10 MRK at $54.53:





Quote: Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK)


I just sold 10 shares at $61.2: Item 1.C. Sold 10 MRK at $61.2 (1/28/18 Post)


Last DiscussedItem # 2.A. Bought 10 MRK at $54.29 (12/7/17 POST)


Prior 2017 DiscussionITEM # 2.B. Sold 113 MRK at $65.28 (2/19/17 Post)(profit snapshot= +$741.19)


Dividend: Quarterly at $.48 per share


Merck Announces Second-Quarter 2018 Dividend


Dividend Yield at a $54.53 TC per share = 3.52%


Recent Earnings Report: Merck Announces Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2017 Financial Results



Merck's growth remains a Keytruda story.

Main Products:




Pipeline Developments:




LYNPARZA® (olaparib) Receives Approval in Japan for the Treatment of Advanced Ovarian Cancer (1/19/18)

Merck Receives Positive CHMP Opinion for PREVYMIS™ (letermovir) in the European Union (11/13/17)


Merck Receives FDA Approval of PREVYMIS™ (letermovir) for Prevention of Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infection and Disease in Adult Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplant Patients (11.9.17 Post)


AstraZeneca DealAstraZeneca and Merck Establish Strategic Oncology Collaboration




At the time of purchase, Morningstar had a $65 fair value estimate and a 4 star rating. Credit Suisse had a $66 target price and an outperform rating. Both of those reports are available to Charles Schwab customers.  S & P had a 3 star rating and a $60 twelve month price target. I am likely to be a seller in the $60 to $65 range based on what is known to me now. That range can go up or down based on future developments.


Closing Price Yesterday (2/14/18): MRK $54.90 0.00 0.00%

C. Bought 10 NVS at $85 and 2 at $82.9  -Used Commission Free Trade:




Quote: Novartis AG ADR (NVS)


I recently sold 30 shares at $93.85. Item 2.A. Sold 30 NVS at $93.85 (2/3/18 Post) I am just buying back those shares and taking my time. 


I discussed the last earnings report in that recent post. 


What's Expected of Novartis's Core Operating Income in 2018? - Market Realist


Annual Ex Dividend Date: 3/6/18


My larger NVS position, close to 105 shares, is held in another account. 


Closing Price Yesterday: NVS $85.52 +$1.92 +2.30%

CHF / USD Currency Chart. Swiss Franc to US Dollar Rates

D. Bought 5 ENB at $33.36-Used Commission Free Trade:




Quote: Enbridge Inc. (ENB)


This brings me up to 45+ shares:



Average Cost Per Share: $35.82

Quarterly Ex Dividend Date: 2/14/18


Enbridge is a Canadian corporation. Canada will withhold a 15% dividend tax:




The amount of the dividend will also depend on the CAD/USD conversion rate. The current quarterly rate is C$.671 per share. Enbridge Dividend History and Securities Info - Enbridge Inc.


Convert CAD/USD. Canada Dollar to United States Dollar


Assume that the CAD/USD is .79. The C$.671 would convert into US$.53. Assuming the same exchange rate for all four quarterly dividends, the dividend yield at a total cost of US$35.82 would be about 5.92% before the withholding tax. 


CAD / USD Currency Chart. Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Rates

At a 1 CAD to 1 USD exchange rate, the quarterly dividend amount would increase to US$.671 and the yield using the same assumptions would then be 7.483%. 


So the owner of ENB would want the CAD/USD to rise after purchase, primarily because of the favorable impact on ENB's price compared to the ordinary shares priced in CADs and secondarily because of the increased USD value of the Canadian Dollar dividend payment. 


I am reinvesting the dividend.


My next add will be another 5 share at <$32.5


I will generally eliminate or pare an ENB position at >$39.


Sell Discussion: Item # 3 Sold 50 ENB at $39.03 (12/21/17 Post)


I also briefly mentioned selling my highest cost 10 share lot, using a commission free trade, at $40.14 here.

Most Recent Substantive Purchase DiscussionItem 3. Added 20 ENB at $36.5 (11/17/17 Post)

E. Added 10 ENY at $7.57-Used Commission Free Trade:



With the recent decline in energy prices, this ETF declined quickly from my last purchase at  $8.27 just a few days ago. Item # 1.A. (2/1/18 Post) 

Guggenheim Canadian Energy Income ETF
Guggenheim Canadian Energy Income ETF
All Holdings

It would be fair to say, without fear of contradiction or dispute, that ENY is not working at the moment. 

Yesterday's Closing Price (2/14/18): ENY $7.69 +$0.10 +1.33%

CAD / USD Currency Chart. Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Rates

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members. 

11 comments:

  1. The ten year treasury declined a slither in yield today which was apparently enough for equity REIT stocks to rally.

    Vanguard Real Estate ETF
    $74.88 +$0.72 +0.97%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vnq

    Brad Thomas remains super bullish on OHI, calling the dividend "well covered" in a comment to his OHI SA article published today.
    He must have a different definition of "well covered" than I have or he is using OHI's core FFO number which includes millions of non-cash revenue.

    You can not cover a cash dividend with non-cash revenues created by the accounting profession.

    What is stunning to me is that he discusses all of the operator problems that came to light last year (Orianna, Signature Healthcare, Daybreak and Preferred Care) and then see nothing but sunny skies ahead.

    You can not prudently make that kind of assumption about the future when so many problems came into being just within the past 12 months. The problems point to the high level of risk that is inherent in leasing properties to nursing home operators. To my knowledge, all of the problems were unrelated to the level of Medicare/Medicaid reimbursements.

    The continued rise in intermediate term interest rates will be a headwind for OHI and other equity REIT stocks. There is also a potential adverse change in Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement levels such as the one included in the recent budget deal:

    http://www.providermagazine.com/news/Pages/2018/FEBRUARY%202018/Congressional-Budget-Deal-Funds-Government,-Repeals-Therapy-Caps,-But-Cuts-SNF-Funding.aspx

    +++

    After falling to about a 2.88% yield around noon E.S.T., the ten year treasury spent the rest of the day moving slowly up in yield and that slight trend up in yields has continued after the stock market's close.

    I doubt that the Bond Ghouls will have much a respite before a bear charge is made on the 3.04% level.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-decades-long-downtrend-in-interest-rates-finally-over-2018-02-08

    The German 10 year is still stuck at abnormally low levels below .8% which probably acts as a tether to the U.S. ten year rising in yield. The question is how much slack remains in that tether.

    The closing high in the S & P 500 was hit at 2,872.87 on 1/26/18.

    The closing low thereafter was at 2,581 on 2/8/18.

    Top to Bottom: 291.87 points and 10.16%, barely a "correction"

    The close today was at 2731.2 or 150 points or a recovery of 51.54% of the 291.87 points.

    Quick snapback rallies, as I recall, can sometimes run out of gas after retracing about 50-60% of a quick decline. Buyers lose interest, short sellers regroup, and long sellers go back into sell the rally mode.

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  2. Hello southgent,

    I am a little fuzzy on my understanding of the rise in long-term bonds rates. I understand that the CPI was way above what was expected although the market really did not react.

    I understand that the Fed will be raising rates maybe three or four times this year.

    My question really pertains to timing the rise of long-term rates. I know you are using a ladder strategy and sacrificing some near-term appreciation as you stated in your most recent market commentary. I am not sure as to the roadmap of how rates will rise. And I'm sure nobody can answer this with certainty.

    I wanted to know since there seemed to be some hidden disinflationary factors in the economy i.e. decrease of the workforce with baby boomers etc., that when the 10 year bond treasury hits 3% or greater, that would really be the time to perhaps increase bond holdings by a lot, by more than just a ladder strategy.

    Obviously no one can time the stock market or the bond market and at present the stock market clearly seems to be in a trading range.

    I do believe long-range rates are going up and we are in a bond bear market, but I wondered if we had a rapid rise to 3 or more percent whether or not that would be a good time to really increase bond holdings

    Once again thanks a lot, Sam

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sam: The reason for using a ladder strategy is that I and no one else really knows the future which is inherently uncertain.

      Rates may come down or go up based on future events that are impossible to predict with any decree of certainty. Is a recession possible within the next 12 months for example and what happens if just about everyone is fooled by that event occurring much sooner than currently expected?

      There are still deflationary forces and massive CB manipulation. One potentially important deflationary force is the massive corporate tax cuts that will likely cause companies in competitive markets to lower prices.

      The primary problem now and over the short term appears to be a potential supply/demand imbalance caused by a substantially increasing bond supply needing buyers. Inflation could remain tethered to 2% over the next two years or so and interest rates could rise meaningfully for that reason.

      There will come a time when I will use proceeds from maturing short term CDs and bonds to go further out in maturity.

      I have started to buy more bonds maturing in 2020 already.

      I was looking, but did not buy some high quality investment grade bonds maturing in the first half of 2022 that had 3.1-3.2% YTMs. The issue for me at the moment is that I can pick most of that yield with bonds maturing two years earlier and I still see interest rates rising this year.

      The next tell for me is how the Bond Bookies react when the ten year bursts through 3.04% in a convincing move to the upside. That may present a better buying opportunity than now.

      The FED will continue raising the FF rate this year and that will cause rates to raise on the short end, particularly those bonds maturing in 2 years or less.

      As I have discussed previously, there is also opportunity costs caused by waiting when I know that the source of funds used to purchase bonds and CDs originates from low yielding broker money market funds. Schwab for example pays .1% in its sweep account. Fidelity's Government MM fund is currently at .98%:

      https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/31617H102

      So, for me, I have to balance that factor with the likelihood that short term rates will rise.

      Another consideration for investors generally is whether any bond purchase can be held to maturity. That is an easier decision to make now when the bond matures this year or possibly next year, but may become more problematic as the investor moves further out in maturities.

      The issue there is whether the investor will have to sell a longer term bond to pay expenses at an inopportune time before maturity, possibly harvesting a loss that would exceed the total amount of interest income received prior to the sell.

      Delete
  3. Enbridge Inc. (ENB)
    $34.80 +$0.25 0.72%
    Last Updated: Feb 16, 2018 at 11:32 a.m. EST

    Enbridge reported better than expected earnings this morning.

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/enbridge-inc-reports-fourth-quarter-2017-results-674275683.html

    Adjusted E.P.S. was reported at C$.61 per share or C$.05 about the consensus estimate. Importantly, liquid pipeline volumes hit record levels in December and "demand outlook remains robust into 2018" according to the CEO.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-enbridge-inc-results/pipeline-operator-enbridge-ceo-sees-no-need-for-more-asset-sales-idUSKCN1G017O

    ENB just went ex dividend for its quarterly distribution of C$.671 per share. Schwab has the USD amount after conversion from CADs as $.5372 that will be payable on 3/1/18.

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  4. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
    2.85 -0.059%
    Last Updated: Feb 16, 2018 at 11:37 a.m. EST
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

    Germany 10 Year Government Bond
    0.704% -0.062%
    Last Updated: Feb 16, 2018 at 5:38 p.m. CEST
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkde-10y?countrycode=bx

    France 10 Year Government Bond
    0.953% -0.051%
    Last Updated: Feb 16, 2018 5:31 p.m. CEST

    As mentioned in a prior comment, I am moving gingerly into some 2020 bond purchases.

    An example was the purchase earlier today of a Morgan Stanley 2.65% SU bond maturing on 1/27/20.

    http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondTradeActivitySearchResult.jsp?ticker=C690426&startdate=02%2F16%2F2017&enddate=02%2F16%2F2018

    I bought the bond at 99.785 or at a total cost of 99.885. The YTM at the total cost number is 2.711%. You can see another at Finra's trading activity another 1 bond purchase at a slightly lower price shortly thereafter, and that would be my purchase in a family member's account.

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  5. Given the possibility that intermediate term interest rates may stall at close to recent levels, I did something a few minutes ago that I said that I would not do.

    Using a commission free trade, I bought 50 HTPRD at $22.98. This will be a trade. Or, if I am caught holding the shares, I would consider at some point averaging down at a lower price, preferably below $20.

    At a TC of $22.68, the yield is about 7.07%.

    I eliminated my position a few weeks ago.

    Monday, October 9, 2017
    Item # 1. A. Sold Last 50 HTPRD Share Lot at $25.85-A Roth IRA Account:
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/10/observations-and-sample-of-recent_9.html

    My lowest purchase price to date was at $22.28 as noted in that post.

    Total HTPRD Trading Profits: +$313.49

    Quote:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ht.pd

    Prospectus:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1063344/000119312516604213/d180096d424b5.htm

    I am being contrary a bit to my own opinion about the direction of intermediate term interest rates. If I knew what would happen, I could manage my bond and preferred stock positions better. So far, the Lord has not enlightened me about the future. So I do place side "bets" that I will be wrong.

    Adding recently to OHI is a bet that I will end up being wrong and Brad Thomas will be prescient urging investors to hold on and to add more. However, since I may only be temporarily wrong and the risks are omnipresent and clear, my side "bet" was small. Those risks may not pop up again for several months or even a few years.

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  6. The S & P 500 drifted down after the DOJ announced indictments against several Russians for interfering in the U.S. election. The indictment makes it clear that the Russians were trying to elect Donald which is generally accepted by most Americans who are not republicans. There is a great deal of evidence summarized in the indictment.

    The indictment does not say that the Trump campaign cooperated with the Russians. However, in paragraph 6, there is a statement that the Russians did "communicate" with "unwitting" members of the Trump campaign, without identifying those persons.

    I would treat with some skepticism the use of the words "unwitting" and "communicate" in paragraph 6 by Jeff Session's Justice Department.

    For now, it is more important just to know that the indicted Russians had contacts with Trump campaign members and leave it for further investigation by an impartial entity whether those contacts were accurately described in the indictment as nothing more than mere unwitting communications.

    The republican controlled committees in Congress are not capable of conducting a proper investigation IMO.

    Internet Research Agency Indictment:

    https://www.justice.gov/file/1035477/download

    The S & P 500 did manage a 1.02 point gain, closing at 2732.22. However, around 2:38 E.S.T. the index was at 2,754.

    Another potentially problematic issue involves Trump imposing duties on aluminum and steel imports.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/16/commerce-department-suggests-trump-impose-steep-tariffs-or-quotas-on-foreign-steel-and-aluminum--sources.html

    The Commerce Department recommended today that a global tariff of at least 24% be levied on all steel imports:

    https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2018/02/secretary-ross-releases-steel-and-aluminum-232-reports-coordination

    I would not dismiss the possibility that Trump will start a trade war.

    U.S. interest rates did decline. As discussed numerous times, interest rates on other sovereign debt, particularly the debt issued by European governments and Japan, restrains U.S. interest rates from finding the normalized rate set by a free market. The FED is also still interfering with the market's normal rate setting mechanism through its $2T+ in debt holdings and maintaining the FF rate well below levels that would be dictated by current and reasonably projected economic conditions.

    Before the U.S. stock market opened today, there was a meaningful decline in European sovereign interest rates.

    Germany 10 Year Government Bond
    0.71% -0.056%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkde-10y?countrycode=bx

    U.K. 10 Year Gilt
    1.584% -0.067%
    Last Updated: Feb 16, 2018 5:00 p.m. GMT
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkgb-10y?countrycode=bx

    Japan 10 Year Government Bond 0.058%
    Italy 10 Year Government Bond 1.991% -0.078%
    Spain 10 Year Government Bond 1.458% -0.038
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkes-10y?countrycode=bx
    France 10 Year Government Bond .953% -.051%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkfr-10y?countrycode=bx

    Swiss 10 Year Government Bond .1% -.03%
    Netherlands 10 Year .749% -.053%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmknl-10y?countrycode=bx

    I mentioned in a comment above that there was a tether linking those bonds yields to the U.S. ten year, with the question being how much slack remained in the tether.

    Today, those abnormally low European yields yanked the U.S. 10 year down in yield IMO:

    U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
    2.873% -0.036%
    Last Updated: Feb 16, 2018 4:59 p.m. EST
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

    ReplyDelete
  7. South Gent,

    I think a lot of what happens next will depend on the interest rates and inflation expectations. What do you think is the odds of 10 Year Treasury Note exceeds 3% and stays above 3%? And in what timeframe? Would there be an equilibrium point of interest rates where the REIT sector reaches its bottom?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Y: Headline CPI has increased at a 4.4% annualized clip over the 3 month period ending in January. Core CPI increased at 2.9% yearly pace.

      If that pace continues for a few more months, I would anticipate a 1% increase in the FF rate this year.

      The increases in the FF rate will have an impact on intermediate term rates, particularly in the 3 to 5 year range. The weighted average maturity for most REITs fall within that range.

      While their interest cost are rising and will likely continue doing so, the REITs do benefit from a strong economy in their occupancy levels and fewer tenant bankruptcies (ex nursing home REITs); and there is some offset in rising rents where there are rent escalators in the leases (e.g. CPI or some number like 2%).

      Based on current economic data, it is my opinion that in a free market the short term overnight rate would be 2% and the ten year treasury would be at 4% to 4.5%. But that market does not currently exist and has not existed for a decade. I do believe that CB manipulation is at least nearing an end, but CBs are still holding down interest rates below normalized levels that would be set in a free market with normal CB benchmark rates rather than such numbers as -.4% or -.7%.

      The unknowable question is how much of the intermediate term increase has already been factored into REIT current prices. That is not knowable with any decree of certainty.

      I do not think market participants are anticipating anytime soon a 4% ten year treasury yield which would be a competitive and tempting rate for many REIT investors. So that kind of move is probably nowhere near being priced into REIT stocks IMO. A move to that level fairly quickly, say within the next 12 months, would likely be a major headwind for REIT stocks IMO.

      My best guess now is that REITs are due for a rally but any such rally would be short lived with the ten year busting through 3.04% to the upside and showing no signs of retreating.

      I am dealing with the interest rate and other uncertainties by buying small lots using commission free trades, averaging down multiple times which has not required a long wait recently (see LXP buys in this post), buying REITs with above average dividend yields, and focusing mostly on disfavored REITs that have been knocked down well into bear market territory already (-20% declines from most recent high).

      Energy infrastructure companies, like REITs, are common stock bond substitutes for many investors. They are also heavily debt ladened entities that will pay a dear price for a meaningful increase in interest costs.

      Enbridge, for example, which is discussed in this post, has over C$62 billion in debt:

      Page 44:
      http://www.enbridge.com/investment-center/~/media/Enb/Documents/Investor%20Relations/2017/2017_YE_ENB_MDA_FS.pdf

      Delete
  8. South Gent,

    Sigh....I guess "buying small lots" will be the road to take when there is no conviction like the one back in March 2009.



    ReplyDelete
  9. I have published a new post.

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/02/observations-and-sample-of-recent_19.html

    ReplyDelete