Economy:
The FED signaled yesterday that it will increase the federal funds rate by .25% next month. Most Fed policymakers say rate hike likely needed 'soon,' minutes show | Reuters That is expected and would increase the FF range to 1.75% to 2%. The Fed Minutes of Last Meeting 5/1-2/2018 The minutes also reveal that the FED is not concerned about inflation spiking which soothed the frayed nerves of the Bond Ghouls:
U.S.-China trade deal 'too hard to get done,' Trump says | Reuters
China was able to secure a cease fire in the incipient trade war by giving Trump a meaningless promise and lowering the tariffs on automobile imports which it had planned to do anyway.
Senator Marc Rubio (R-FL) summed it up correctly as follows IMO:
U.S.-China trade deal 'too hard to get done,' Trump says | Reuters
China was able to secure a cease fire in the incipient trade war by giving Trump a meaningless promise and lowering the tariffs on automobile imports which it had planned to do anyway.
Senator Marc Rubio (R-FL) summed it up correctly as follows IMO:
Trump weighs 10% cuts on EU steel, aluminum exports to U.S. - MarketWatch
The flash estimate for the Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 54.1 in May, an 18 month low: markiteconomics.com
Trump administration mulls tariffs of up to 25% on imported autos - MarketWatch
Trump officials weigh 25 percent tax on imported cars in a bid to force concessions in NAFTA trade talks - The Washington Post
The Stock Jocks do not view Trump as a major risk to the world economy and view the odds as nil that the King of Chaos will cause chaos in world trade.
++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
Small banks trump Wall Street on Dodd-Frank rewrite | Reuters
Small cap stocks whose businesses are U.S. economy centric have been on a run lately. They are major beneficiaries of the corporate tax reduction. Small caps in ‘early innings’ of record run, Wall Street veteran says: CNBC
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Total Returns (through 5/22/18):
YTD: 6.35%
1 Year: 19.65%
vs.
S & P 500 ETF (SPY) Total Returns
YTD 2.56%
1 Year: 15.98%
I will buy small and nano cap stocks, mostly in the regional bank, biotech, and REIT sectors where most of my positions will be in those two size categories. My overall largest position in that category would be the T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock Fund (OTCFX) which is currently closed to new investors. The total average annual return since inception in 1992 through April 2018 is 12.99%.
The Stock Jocks do not normally think long term. Their general tendency is to extrapolate the present into the indefinite future, even though history informs those who are not brain dead that economic conditions do in fact change, frequently in unexpected and/or undesirable ways.
What happens to consumer spending levels as baby boomers retire and have inadequate retirement savings which is for the most part the case?
Small banks trump Wall Street on Dodd-Frank rewrite | Reuters
Small cap stocks whose businesses are U.S. economy centric have been on a run lately. They are major beneficiaries of the corporate tax reduction. Small caps in ‘early innings’ of record run, Wall Street veteran says: CNBC
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Total Returns (through 5/22/18):
YTD: 6.35%
1 Year: 19.65%
vs.
S & P 500 ETF (SPY) Total Returns
YTD 2.56%
1 Year: 15.98%
I will buy small and nano cap stocks, mostly in the regional bank, biotech, and REIT sectors where most of my positions will be in those two size categories. My overall largest position in that category would be the T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock Fund (OTCFX) which is currently closed to new investors. The total average annual return since inception in 1992 through April 2018 is 12.99%.
The Stock Jocks do not normally think long term. Their general tendency is to extrapolate the present into the indefinite future, even though history informs those who are not brain dead that economic conditions do in fact change, frequently in unexpected and/or undesirable ways.
What happens to consumer spending levels as baby boomers retire and have inadequate retirement savings which is for the most part the case?
Households lose out on hundreds or thousands of dollars due to slow pay gains - MarketWatch
Since everything has been going well for the Stock Jocks, there is a misplaced belief that everything is getting better for the average household whose economic well-being supports the U.S. economy. 50 million American households can’t afford basic living expenses - MarketWatch
The ten year treasury yield declined yesterday and closed at 3%, down 6 basis points. Equity REIT stocks responded well to that decline with the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) closing at $77.62, up 1% for the day.
+++++
Portfolio Management:
A reader asked me why I was buying intermediate term bonds when I believed that interest rates would continue to move up. (my reply)
The key word is "believe". I do not know the future. I simply have opinions about future possibilities and probabilities.
The underlying rational for using a bond ladder is that the future is unknowable. If interest rates continue to rise, I will have a constant flow of maturing securities whose redemption proceeds can be used to buy higher yielding bonds and CDs and thereby benefit.
When buying longer dated bonds, I have to accept the interest rate risk that I call the risk of lost opportunity.
I have been experiencing that risk this year as bonds have trended down in price due to interest rates rising. I lose the opportunity to use funds tied up in those purchases to buy higher yielding bonds.
The bond ladder deals with the interest rate risk issue by having maturing securities coming due throughout each month and then holding the bonds until maturity where there are unrealized losses. I control credit risk as much as I can by limiting my purchases to FDIC insured CDs and to higher quality bonds.
If there is a significant rally in bonds, I may lighten up on longer duration ones by taking profits as I did last year and then wait for an opportunity to buy back at lower prices. I substantially pared my intermediate bond position last year when the ten year treasury yield was moving back down to 1.66%.
This is a snapshot of my current list of small ball trades. The prices shown are the lowest prices in the chain. All purchases are made with commission free trades.
+++++++
Trump and Richard Nixon:
Trump wants to use his presidential power to punish Jeff Bezos for owning the Washington Post. Trump personally pushed postmaster general to double rates on Amazon-The Washington Post; Trump pressured U.S. postmaster general to jack up shipping rates for Amazon - MarketWatch That is crystal clear to me.
If he had the power to double AMZN'S shipping rates, the costs would be passed on to consumers and would cause Amazon to use other distributions services, including its own, resulting in larger losses for the USPS. That is beyond the comprehension of a reptilian brain who simply wants to strike.
Trump has repeatedly urged the Attorney General to go after Trump's political enemies including Hillary and Comey.
Trump's abuse of presidential power is reminiscent of another GOP President. I am referring of course to Richard Nixon.
Nixon Tape 5/13/1971 (referring to a new IRS Chief): "I want to be sure he is a ruthless son of a bitch, that he will do what he's told, that every income tax return I want to see I see, that he will go after our enemies and not go after our friends". (emphasis added)
NIXON SOUGHT 'RUTHLESS' IRS CHIEF TO 'DO WHAT HE'S TOLD' AT IRS - The Washington Post
If he had the power to double AMZN'S shipping rates, the costs would be passed on to consumers and would cause Amazon to use other distributions services, including its own, resulting in larger losses for the USPS. That is beyond the comprehension of a reptilian brain who simply wants to strike.
Trump has repeatedly urged the Attorney General to go after Trump's political enemies including Hillary and Comey.
Trump's abuse of presidential power is reminiscent of another GOP President. I am referring of course to Richard Nixon.
Nixon Tape 5/13/1971 (referring to a new IRS Chief): "I want to be sure he is a ruthless son of a bitch, that he will do what he's told, that every income tax return I want to see I see, that he will go after our enemies and not go after our friends". (emphasis added)
NIXON SOUGHT 'RUTHLESS' IRS CHIEF TO 'DO WHAT HE'S TOLD' AT IRS - The Washington Post
Former IRS chief recalls defying Nixon: USA Today
Nixon disliked the L.A. Times and its then owner Otis Chandler, almost as much as Trump dislikes all media outlets that challenge his version of reality:
Nixon Targeted The Times, Tapes Show - latimes
Nixon: 'Go After' Jewish Contributors - latimes
+++++
Nixon disliked the L.A. Times and its then owner Otis Chandler, almost as much as Trump dislikes all media outlets that challenge his version of reality:
 |
| Tape Transcript |
Nixon: 'Go After' Jewish Contributors - latimes
+++++
Trump's Spying Claim-More Virulent Attacks on the DOJ and FBI:
In Trump's Alternate Reality, where false is true and true is false, this is the biggest scandal in U.S. history:
Trump Only Has One Scandal - The Atlantic
Comey's response:
Trump and Devin Nunes have managed to unmask the name of the alleged plant in Trump's campaign, thereby making it clear to all future informants on national security issues that the DOJ and the FBI may not be able to protect their their identity from GOP politicians. Who is Stefan A. Halper, the FBI source who assisted the Russia investigation? - The Washington Post
Mr. Halper is a life long republican who received a doctorate from the University of Oxford in 1971 and was an emeritus professor at Cambridge during 2016.
After graduating from Oxford in 1971, he "quickly ascended, serving on the White House domestic policy council for President Richard M. Nixon and then in the Office of Management and Budget before being tapped as an assistant to President Gerald Ford’s chief of staff."
Halper worked on a republican senators staff before joining George H.W. Bush's 1980 campaign as national policy development director and then working for the Reagan-Bush campaign as national director of policy coordination. In the Reagan administration, he served as deputy assistant secretary of state for politico-military affairs".
When Halper met with Carter Page and George Papadopoulos, the FBI already had information about their Russian activities which Trump of course fails to mention.
Papadopoulos has plead guilty Donald to making false statements about his contacts with Russians to the FBI. Carter Page has been known to the FBI since 2013.
By Demanding an Investigation, Trump Challenged a Constraint on His Power - The New York Times Trump has repeatedly assaulted prosecutorial independence and has nothing but contempt for an independent judiciary and press as proven by his conduct and words repeatedly.
Showboat Rudy has admitted that Trump wants to know what the FBI has on him which explains his tirade on this issue. Giuliani Says Mueller Can't Talk To Trump Until Trump Hears More About FBI Source
Rudy: Trump Might Commit Perjury Because ‘Truth is Relative’ Showboat Rudy has a new phrase to describe Reality Creations and Alternate Facts.
++++
Trump's Attack on the Former CIA Director John Brennan:
Donald Trump Criticizes John Brennan on Twitter | Time
++++++
Trump lawyer 'paid by Ukraine' to arrange White House talks - BBC News
("Donald Trump's personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, received a secret payment of at least $400,000 (£300,000) to fix talks between the Ukrainian president and President Trump, according to sources in Kiev close to those involved.")
Ukraine's President Poroshenko met with Trump. Soon after his return, he ordered his government to cease providing evidence to Mueller. Trump lawyer Cohen was paid to arrange meeting with Ukraine leader
It looks like Stormy Daniels' lawyer has a lot in common with Donald. Both have a higher opinion of themselves than justified by the facts. Law firm of Stormy Daniels' attorney is hit with $10 million judgment
Trump floats management changes instead of sanctions for China's ZTE | Reuters
DHS Secretary Nielsen 'not aware' of intel report on Russian meddling in election (Wow. Of course, non-True Believers knew about this report over a year ago, a finding that has been mentioned by non-True Believer media outlets repeatedly for about 15 months. I read the non-classified report in January 2017, but then I am not Trump's Homeland Security chief: ICA_2017_01.pdf ).
Chinese bank offered chance to dine with Trump for $150K per ticket: report | TheHill; Chinese Bank Offered Clients Chance to Dine With Trump for $150,000 - Bloomberg
Michael Cohen’s Business Partner Agrees to Cooperate as Part of Plea Deal - The New York Times
Pompeo lays out Trump administration’s demands for new Iran deal - MarketWatch The terms are DOA.
Giuliani defends 'stormtroopers' comments about FBI - CNN (the GOP has become hostile to federal law enforcement agencies)
EPA blocks CNN, Associated Press journalists from attending Pruitt speech (one reporter was shoved out of the room)
++++++++
1. Small Ball:
A. Bought 50 of the BDC AINV at $5.58-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: Apollo Investment Corp. (AINV)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share ($.6 per year)
Dividend Yield at a TC of $5.58: 10.75%
Last Reported NAV Per Share as of Date of Purchase: $6.6 as of 12/31/17
2017 4th Quarter Report
2017 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 11 and ends at page 39)
Discount to NAV at $5.58: 17.9%
Rationale: I view AINV as one of the worst externally managed BDCs, an opinion buttressed by its historical performance and total return. This purchase was consequently a lottery ticket buy.
For me, a lottery ticket buy recognizes that the risk/reward balance tilts more toward risk, but the price and recent events suggest the possibility that the worm may turn. The total out-of-pocket exposure for this strategy is $1K per stock plus any net realized gains. I am a long way from that maximum limit with this 50 share purchase.
One important avenue of research, applicable to all BDCs, is to examine the historical net asset value per share trend. Many of these firms richly compensate their external managers to destroy assets. Net asset value per share is moving in many cases inexorably toward zero. Individual investors tend to focus instead on the shiny object, which is dividend yield for these companies. Dividends will of course be cut as assets are vaporized and new money is often raised by share offerings priced at below book value.
AINV Historical Net Asset Values Per Share: 10-K Annual Reports
3/31/18: $6.56 3/31/17 $ 6.74
3/31/16 $ 7.28
3/31/15 $ 8.18
3/31/14 $ 8.67
3/31/13 $ 8.27
3/31/12 $ 8.67
3/31/11 $10.03
3/31/10 $10.06
3/31/09 $ 9.82
3/31/08 $15.93 (Near Depression)
3/31/07 $17.87
3/31/06 $15.15
3/31/05 $14.27
IPO in 2005 at $15 per share: Final Prospectus
Note the substantial decline during and after the Near Depression which highlights the risks of lending money to highly leveraged private companies.
More recently, AINV has been hurt in part my its over exposure to energy companies and has compounded the problem through a poorly timed effort to hedge its exposure with future's contracts that are losing money as crude oil moves up in price. In the Q/E 12/31/17, AINV recorded a 6 cent loss per share on its oil hedges.
Masters of Disaster generally have very high opinions of their capabilities.
AINV's net asset value has stabilized over the past year. As of 12/31/17, 91% of the assets were in floating rate debt and the yield on that debt is rising. The investments as of 12/31/17 can be reviewed in AINV's 10-Q filing starting at page 5. A number of the loans have 1 or 3 month Libor floors of 1% which is not relevant at the current time. Instead, those loans will be at the relevant Libor rate, which is rising, plus some percentage.
Purchase Price-Discount To NAV= -14.94% (using 3/31/18 NAV Per Share)
Maximum Position: 150 Shares (50 share lots)
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rules
Most Recent Discussion: Item # 3 Sold 155+ AINV at $8.81 (9/20/14)
Profit Snapshots-2007 to Date:
Net at + $116.2 (a light year below immaterial)
A. Bought 50 of the BDC AINV at $5.58-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: Apollo Investment Corp. (AINV)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share ($.6 per year)
Dividend Yield at a TC of $5.58: 10.75%
Last Reported NAV Per Share as of Date of Purchase: $6.6 as of 12/31/17
2017 4th Quarter Report
2017 Annual Report (risk summary starts at page 11 and ends at page 39)
Discount to NAV at $5.58: 17.9%
Rationale: I view AINV as one of the worst externally managed BDCs, an opinion buttressed by its historical performance and total return. This purchase was consequently a lottery ticket buy.
For me, a lottery ticket buy recognizes that the risk/reward balance tilts more toward risk, but the price and recent events suggest the possibility that the worm may turn. The total out-of-pocket exposure for this strategy is $1K per stock plus any net realized gains. I am a long way from that maximum limit with this 50 share purchase.
One important avenue of research, applicable to all BDCs, is to examine the historical net asset value per share trend. Many of these firms richly compensate their external managers to destroy assets. Net asset value per share is moving in many cases inexorably toward zero. Individual investors tend to focus instead on the shiny object, which is dividend yield for these companies. Dividends will of course be cut as assets are vaporized and new money is often raised by share offerings priced at below book value.
AINV Historical Net Asset Values Per Share: 10-K Annual Reports
3/31/18: $6.56 3/31/17 $ 6.74
3/31/16 $ 7.28
3/31/15 $ 8.18
3/31/14 $ 8.67
3/31/13 $ 8.27
3/31/12 $ 8.67
3/31/11 $10.03
3/31/10 $10.06
3/31/09 $ 9.82
3/31/08 $15.93 (Near Depression)
3/31/07 $17.87
3/31/06 $15.15
3/31/05 $14.27
IPO in 2005 at $15 per share: Final Prospectus
Note the substantial decline during and after the Near Depression which highlights the risks of lending money to highly leveraged private companies.
More recently, AINV has been hurt in part my its over exposure to energy companies and has compounded the problem through a poorly timed effort to hedge its exposure with future's contracts that are losing money as crude oil moves up in price. In the Q/E 12/31/17, AINV recorded a 6 cent loss per share on its oil hedges.
Masters of Disaster generally have very high opinions of their capabilities.
AINV's net asset value has stabilized over the past year. As of 12/31/17, 91% of the assets were in floating rate debt and the yield on that debt is rising. The investments as of 12/31/17 can be reviewed in AINV's 10-Q filing starting at page 5. A number of the loans have 1 or 3 month Libor floors of 1% which is not relevant at the current time. Instead, those loans will be at the relevant Libor rate, which is rising, plus some percentage.
Purchase Price-Discount To NAV= -14.94% (using 3/31/18 NAV Per Share)
Maximum Position: 150 Shares (50 share lots)
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rules
Most Recent Discussion: Item # 3 Sold 155+ AINV at $8.81 (9/20/14)
Profit Snapshots-2007 to Date:
 |
| 2015 100 Shares Net at -$7.51 |
 |
| 2014 155+ Shares at +$31.37 |
 |
| 2007 50 Shares +$92.34 |
As always, the goal for a BDC stock is to escape at a profit after harvesting several dividends.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/18-released shortly after my purchase):
Net investment income per share fell to $.15 from $.17 in the year ago quarter. Net asset value per share was reported at $6.56, down from $6.74 as of 3/31/17.
During the three months ended March 31, 2018, the Company repurchased 1,943,858 shares at a weighted average price per share of $5.73, inclusive of commissions, for a total cost of $11.1 million.
Apollo Investment Corporation Reports Financial Results for the Quarter and Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2018, Announces Executive Officer Appointments, and Announces Changes to Fee Structure
For the future, it is material that the external manager has agreed to cut their base compensation rate:
Apollo Investment cuts base management fee; names new CEO, president (5/18/18)
While AINV's lending rates tied to Libor will increase as that short term rate rises, AINV has over $200M in floating rate borrowings as of 3/31/18 that will take away some of the benefit from those increases in its lending rates to borrowers. Pages 119-121 Annual Report
On 5/21/18, Fitch place AINV's BBB- rated senior unsecured debt on its negative credit watch. This has to do with AINV increasing its leverage in response to new legislation that permits BDCs to do so. BDCs win leverage cap increase after US$1.3trn budget signed | Reuters
I mentioned earlier, without referencing a particular BDC, that Masters of Disaster want to increase their compensation and wealth by taking risks that may be unjustified and unreasonable. The external BDC managers are paid a base fee that is calculated on gross assets, including assets acquired with debt, and an incentive fee that frequently is way too easy to earn even when net asset value per share is moving down.
Give them more rope and they may hang the shareholders with it while generating more fees and wealth for themselves in the process. Looking at AINV's history, will the external managers likely make or lose more money with more leverage?
I previously owned an AINV exchange traded bond: Bought Roth IRA: 50 AIY at $24 (4/5/14 Post)-Item # 2 Sold 50 AIY at $25.23 (11/11/14 Post); Apollo Investment Corp. 6.875% Sr. Notes due 2043 (AIY)
B. Bought 20 VOD at $26.57-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: Vodafone Group PLC ADR (U.S.: Nasdaq) - MarketWatch
Closing Price Day of Trade: VOD $26.60 -$0.44 -1.63%
Maximum Position: 100 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (each lot has to be bought at the lowest price in the chain)
Last Trade Discussions: Item 1.A. Sold 51+ VOD at $30.21 (11/30/17 Post)-Item 1.A. Bought 50 VOD at $29.13 (6/17/17 Post)
Chart: Bear Trend with a swan dive to a new 52 week low
Some of the recent weakness has been ascribed by pundits to the CEO's retirement. Vittorio Colao had been CEO for the past 10 years.
Dividend: The U.K. does not currently withhold a dividend tax. Dividends are paid semiannually. Prior to selling the 51+ share lot, I owned it long enough to receive the largest of the two semi-annual payment. VOD's dividend payments have historically gone ex-dividend in June and November.
The dividend will be variable based on currency conversion rates. Dividends
The total dividend (minus the ADR custodian fee) for 2017 was $1.64+ per ADR share. At that rate, the dividend yield would be 6.17%.
Fidelity claims that VOD announced the next dividend on May 17th:
I will buy another 10 share lot at some point shortly after the ex dividend date. Generally, I am looking for a decline greater than 1% below the adjusted price on the ex dividend date.
Last Earnings Report:
FY_2018_Press_Release.pdf
These excerpts are self-explanatory:
Forward Guidance:
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/18-released shortly after my purchase):
Net investment income per share fell to $.15 from $.17 in the year ago quarter. Net asset value per share was reported at $6.56, down from $6.74 as of 3/31/17.
During the three months ended March 31, 2018, the Company repurchased 1,943,858 shares at a weighted average price per share of $5.73, inclusive of commissions, for a total cost of $11.1 million.
Apollo Investment Corporation Reports Financial Results for the Quarter and Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2018, Announces Executive Officer Appointments, and Announces Changes to Fee Structure
For the future, it is material that the external manager has agreed to cut their base compensation rate:
Apollo Investment cuts base management fee; names new CEO, president (5/18/18)
While AINV's lending rates tied to Libor will increase as that short term rate rises, AINV has over $200M in floating rate borrowings as of 3/31/18 that will take away some of the benefit from those increases in its lending rates to borrowers. Pages 119-121 Annual Report
On 5/21/18, Fitch place AINV's BBB- rated senior unsecured debt on its negative credit watch. This has to do with AINV increasing its leverage in response to new legislation that permits BDCs to do so. BDCs win leverage cap increase after US$1.3trn budget signed | Reuters
I mentioned earlier, without referencing a particular BDC, that Masters of Disaster want to increase their compensation and wealth by taking risks that may be unjustified and unreasonable. The external BDC managers are paid a base fee that is calculated on gross assets, including assets acquired with debt, and an incentive fee that frequently is way too easy to earn even when net asset value per share is moving down.
Give them more rope and they may hang the shareholders with it while generating more fees and wealth for themselves in the process. Looking at AINV's history, will the external managers likely make or lose more money with more leverage?
I previously owned an AINV exchange traded bond: Bought Roth IRA: 50 AIY at $24 (4/5/14 Post)-Item # 2 Sold 50 AIY at $25.23 (11/11/14 Post); Apollo Investment Corp. 6.875% Sr. Notes due 2043 (AIY)
B. Bought 20 VOD at $26.57-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: Vodafone Group PLC ADR (U.S.: Nasdaq) - MarketWatch
Closing Price Day of Trade: VOD $26.60 -$0.44 -1.63%
Maximum Position: 100 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (each lot has to be bought at the lowest price in the chain)
Last Trade Discussions: Item 1.A. Sold 51+ VOD at $30.21 (11/30/17 Post)-Item 1.A. Bought 50 VOD at $29.13 (6/17/17 Post)
Chart: Bear Trend with a swan dive to a new 52 week low
Dividend: The U.K. does not currently withhold a dividend tax. Dividends are paid semiannually. Prior to selling the 51+ share lot, I owned it long enough to receive the largest of the two semi-annual payment. VOD's dividend payments have historically gone ex-dividend in June and November.
The dividend will be variable based on currency conversion rates. Dividends
The total dividend (minus the ADR custodian fee) for 2017 was $1.64+ per ADR share. At that rate, the dividend yield would be 6.17%.
Fidelity claims that VOD announced the next dividend on May 17th:
I will buy another 10 share lot at some point shortly after the ex dividend date. Generally, I am looking for a decline greater than 1% below the adjusted price on the ex dividend date.
Last Earnings Report:
FY_2018_Press_Release.pdf
These excerpts are self-explanatory:
Forward Guidance:
Q4 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
Back in 2014, Vodafone sold its 45% stake in Verizon Wireless to Verizon for $130 billion.
VOD recently inked a deal to buy Liberty Global's European operations in Germany, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania for €18.4 billion. VODAFONE TO ACQUIRE LIBERTY GLOBAL'S OPERATIONS IN GERMANY, THE CZECH REPUBLIC, HUNGARY AND ROMANIA
In a report dated 5/15/18, Morningstar had a 4 star rating and a $35.5 fair value estimate.
In a report dated 5/12/18, S & P assigned a 3 star rating and a $32 twelve month price target.
C. Bought 2 PPLT at $84.25-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: ETFS Physical Platinum Shares Overview - MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item 1.B. Bought 10 PPLT at $86.05 (5/7/18 Post)
Position: 12 Shares
Maximum Position: 20 Shares
Average cost per share = $85.75
Buying Restriction: Small Ball Rule using 2 share lots and commission free trades
Precious metal prices have trended down some as the USD rose in value along with U.S. interest rates.
The PPLT downtrend has stabilized in the $84 to $87 price range over the past few days this month: PPLT Chart (1 Year) The price was near $97 in January 2018. The prior price decline bottomed in the $84 area in December 2017 and that decline started after PPLT peaked again near $97.
Back in 2014, Vodafone sold its 45% stake in Verizon Wireless to Verizon for $130 billion.
VOD recently inked a deal to buy Liberty Global's European operations in Germany, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania for €18.4 billion. VODAFONE TO ACQUIRE LIBERTY GLOBAL'S OPERATIONS IN GERMANY, THE CZECH REPUBLIC, HUNGARY AND ROMANIA
In a report dated 5/15/18, Morningstar had a 4 star rating and a $35.5 fair value estimate.
In a report dated 5/12/18, S & P assigned a 3 star rating and a $32 twelve month price target.
C. Bought 2 PPLT at $84.25-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: ETFS Physical Platinum Shares Overview - MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item 1.B. Bought 10 PPLT at $86.05 (5/7/18 Post)
Position: 12 Shares
Maximum Position: 20 Shares
Average cost per share = $85.75
Buying Restriction: Small Ball Rule using 2 share lots and commission free trades
Precious metal prices have trended down some as the USD rose in value along with U.S. interest rates.
The PPLT downtrend has stabilized in the $84 to $87 price range over the past few days this month: PPLT Chart (1 Year) The price was near $97 in January 2018. The prior price decline bottomed in the $84 area in December 2017 and that decline started after PPLT peaked again near $97.
2. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 1 Treasury 1% Coupon Maturing on 3/15/19:
YTM = 2.238%
I now own 2 bonds.
B. Bought 2 Total Capital International 2.125% SU Bonds Maturing on 1/10/19:
FINRA PAGE: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Wholly Owned subsidiary of Total S.A. who guarantees the notes
Moodys at Aa3 as of 4/18/18
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.874
YTM at TC Then at 2.295%
Current Yield at TC 2.1277%
A. Bought 1 Treasury 1% Coupon Maturing on 3/15/19:
YTM = 2.238%
I now own 2 bonds.
B. Bought 2 Total Capital International 2.125% SU Bonds Maturing on 1/10/19:
FINRA PAGE: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Wholly Owned subsidiary of Total S.A. who guarantees the notes
Moodys at Aa3 as of 4/18/18
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.874
YTM at TC Then at 2.295%
Current Yield at TC 2.1277%
C. Bought 2 Homestreet Bank 1.7% CDs (monthly interest payments) Maturing on 8/16/18 (3 month CD):
At the time of my purchase, 1.7% was the top rate for August maturities, which included CDs that paid interest at their maturities and this Homestreet CD. When the monthly interest coupon provides the same rate as those that pay at maturity, I will go with the monthly payor.
I am just reinvesting the proceeds from maturing short term bonds and CDs.
I have been quickly rolling over maturing CDs in my Schwab account since that broker pays only .1% on funds held in a sweep account. I may allow $10K+ to aggregate to buy 10 corporate bonds in one order. Schwab has a $1 per bond commission charge but has a minimum commission of 10 bonds. Before turning to that approach and away from short term CDs and treasuries in that account, I would want a current yield greater than 4% and a YTM above 4.25% from a bond rated BBB+ or preferably higher that matures within five years.
3. Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 Sysco 2.5% SU Bonds Maturing on 7/15/21:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Issuer: Sysco Corp. (SYY)
Last March, SYY sold $500M in 3.55% SU bonds maturing in 2025 and $500M in 4.45% SU bonds maturing in 2048. Prospectus (SYY intends "to use the net proceeds of this offering to fund the purchase of up to $200 million combined aggregate principal amount of 2039 notes, 2027 debentures, 2028 debentures and 2035 notes that are tendered and accepted for purchase pursuant to the tender offer."); Sysco Corporation Announces Pricing of Its Pending Cash Tender Offer to Purchase up to $230,538,000 Combined Aggregate Principal Amount of Certain Outstanding Senior Notes and Debentures (higher coupon and longer term bonds)
In this account, I have 2 SYY bonds maturing on 4/1/2019. I am extending the maturity in advance of maturity.
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 97.942
YTM at TC Then at 3.18%
Current Yield at TC = 2.55%
B. Bought 1 Morgan Stanley 3.125% SU Bond Maturing on 1/23/23:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Morgan Stanley (MS)
MS Analyst Estimates
Current Position MS Bonds in This Account (1 bond lots):
These MS bonds are liquid now in one bond lots.
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 97.962
YTM at TC Then at 3.597%
Current Yield at TC = 3.19%
C. Bought 1 Anheuser-Busch Finance 3.3% SU Bond Maturing on 2/1/23:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Final Prospectus Supplement
Issuer: Wholly Owned Subsidiary of Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A. who guarantees the notes
Credit Ratings:
Fitch Affirms Anheuser-Busch InBev at 'BBB'; Outlook Stable (3/22/18)
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.364
YTM at TC Then at 3.446%
Current Yield at TC= 3.3211%
4. Long Term Bond Strategy- Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bonds:
A. Bought 30 EAI at $24.15-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: Entergy Corp. 1st Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066 (EAI)
Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Credit Ratings:
Next Ex-Interest Date: 5/30/18 at $.304688 per share (trades flat like a common stock, which simply means that the buyer does not pay accrued interest to the seller and whoever owns the security on the ex date receives the entire distribution, with the price adjusted to account for distribution)
Interest payments are made quarterly. The issuer has the option to call at par value on or after 9/1/21. If that option is never exercised, this bond will mature on 9/1/66.
I have a long history of trading exchange traded first mortgage bonds and that is my approach now to them.
This bond has a lot of interest rate risk. My maximum position would be 50 shares with the next 20 shares bought when and if the price sinks below $22.
I mentioned this bond in a recent post, where I discussed my preference for buying $1K first mortgage bonds that mature in less than 10 years. Item # 3.A. Bought 1 Entergy Arkansas 3.5% First Mortgage Bond (5/7/18 Post) I also own the 3.05% maturing in 2023: Bond Detail
The yield is 5.05% at a total cost of $24.15. As previously discussed, I am buying more securities with yields over 4% as I gradually raise my entire portfolio's current yield to greater than 4%. That will take at least 12 months and will require a continued rise in interest rates or a bear market in dividend paying stocks.
Financial information about Entergy Arkansas can be found in Entergy's Annual Report, starting at page 300: 10-K
B. Bought 1 Morgan Stanley 3.125% SU Bond Maturing on 1/23/23:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Morgan Stanley (MS)
MS Analyst Estimates
Current Position MS Bonds in This Account (1 bond lots):
These MS bonds are liquid now in one bond lots.
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 97.962
YTM at TC Then at 3.597%
Current Yield at TC = 3.19%
C. Bought 1 Anheuser-Busch Finance 3.3% SU Bond Maturing on 2/1/23:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Final Prospectus Supplement
Issuer: Wholly Owned Subsidiary of Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A. who guarantees the notes
Credit Ratings:
Fitch Affirms Anheuser-Busch InBev at 'BBB'; Outlook Stable (3/22/18)
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.364
YTM at TC Then at 3.446%
Current Yield at TC= 3.3211%
4. Long Term Bond Strategy- Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bonds:
A. Bought 30 EAI at $24.15-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: Entergy Corp. 1st Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066 (EAI)
Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Credit Ratings:
Next Ex-Interest Date: 5/30/18 at $.304688 per share (trades flat like a common stock, which simply means that the buyer does not pay accrued interest to the seller and whoever owns the security on the ex date receives the entire distribution, with the price adjusted to account for distribution)
Interest payments are made quarterly. The issuer has the option to call at par value on or after 9/1/21. If that option is never exercised, this bond will mature on 9/1/66.
I have a long history of trading exchange traded first mortgage bonds and that is my approach now to them.
This bond has a lot of interest rate risk. My maximum position would be 50 shares with the next 20 shares bought when and if the price sinks below $22.
I mentioned this bond in a recent post, where I discussed my preference for buying $1K first mortgage bonds that mature in less than 10 years. Item # 3.A. Bought 1 Entergy Arkansas 3.5% First Mortgage Bond (5/7/18 Post) I also own the 3.05% maturing in 2023: Bond Detail
The yield is 5.05% at a total cost of $24.15. As previously discussed, I am buying more securities with yields over 4% as I gradually raise my entire portfolio's current yield to greater than 4%. That will take at least 12 months and will require a continued rise in interest rates or a bear market in dividend paying stocks.
Financial information about Entergy Arkansas can be found in Entergy's Annual Report, starting at page 300: 10-K
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Precious metals and bonds are moving up in price after Donald cancelled the NK summit meeting.
ReplyDeleteU.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
2.961% -0.033%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx
SPDR Gold Shares
$123.69 +$1.15 +0.94%
Last Updated: May 24, 2018 at 10:54 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/gld
The Stock Jocks are concerned, but their attention span for news of this kind has about 1/40th to 1/50th of the fruit fly's lifespan.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
24,629.05 -257.76 -1.04%
Hi!
ReplyDeleteI'm not familiar with the principle of "prosecutorial independence". Could you give a quick history, with links? I always assumed that prosecutors were the natural slaves of the executive branch, and I seem to vaguely remember some Supreme Court opinions which hinted at the same suspicion.
Thanks.
David.
https://www.acslaw.org/acsblog/a-history-of-prosecutorial-independence-in-america
DeleteProsecutorial independence at the federal level has been a fundamental principle of U.S. democracy from the start. Politicians are not supposed to make decisions on who gets audited by the IRS, sued civilly by the federal government or federal agency or indicted and tried for a crime in federal court.
Consumer staples are moving up today probably due to the decline in crude oil's price. Selling the bounce is already in motion for some of these stocks.
ReplyDeleteGeneral Mills Inc.
$42.77 +$0.57 +1.35%
DAY RANGE
42.26 - 43.16
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gis
One of the input cost items squeezing their margins is transportation costs, referred to as "logistics" by some companies.
The rise in transportation costs is due to more factors than just the price of gasoline however.
Other factors includes a particular firm's need to book shipments at spot rates and the shortage of truck drivers.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/25/companies-are-complaining-they-cant-find-enough-truck-drivers-to-ship-their-stuff-because-of-amazon.html
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/04/26/truck-driver-shortage-raises-prices/535870002/
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/05/observations-and-sample-of-recent_28.html