Economy:
NAHB
Median Sale Price for New Homes:
Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States-St. Louis Fed
Weekly Average for Mortgage Rates:
Mortgage Rates-Freddie Mac
Red light: Ford facing hold-ups at China ports amid trade friction - sources | Reuters
China tariffs are starting to hurt American industries
How Trump's steel tariffs kick the can business | Reuters
"Most energy experts say that a revival of American sanctions on banks and other companies that do business with Iran could reduce Iranian production and exports by at least 10 to 15 percent, and that drop could take six months or more to be felt." U.S. Pullout From Iran Nuclear Deal May Unsettle Oil Markets - The New York Times
The U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear accord has increased the price of gasoline significantly for American consumers. The price increases started over a month ago when it became apparent that Trump would withdraw.
Iran deal: Gas prices rise as Trump withdraws from Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action today - CBS News )("For the U.S. economy, a prolonged rise in oil prices could reverse part of the benefits from the fiscal stimulus," wrote Gregory Daco, head of U.S. economics at Oxford Economics, in a research note. Oxford estimated a GDP boost of 0.7 percentage points from the tax cuts, but if oil stays at the price it was Monday, "this could offset half of the fiscal boost in 2018," he wrote.)
April 2018 CPI: +2.5% Y-O-Y; Core +2.1%
Consumer Price Index Summary
As previously discussed, one expenditure item raises a question whether the BLS is capturing all of the inflationary pressures building in the economy, many of which are being aggravated by Donald's policies (e.g. lumber prices are rising due to Donald's tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber). In the detailed list of prices by item, the BLS claims that health insurance costs rose .2% over the twelve month period ending in April 2018. Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category (look under "Services less energy services" and then under "Medical Care Services")
Median Sale Price for New Homes:
Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States-St. Louis Fed
Weekly Average for Mortgage Rates:
Mortgage Rates-Freddie Mac
Red light: Ford facing hold-ups at China ports amid trade friction - sources | Reuters
China tariffs are starting to hurt American industries
How Trump's steel tariffs kick the can business | Reuters
"Most energy experts say that a revival of American sanctions on banks and other companies that do business with Iran could reduce Iranian production and exports by at least 10 to 15 percent, and that drop could take six months or more to be felt." U.S. Pullout From Iran Nuclear Deal May Unsettle Oil Markets - The New York Times
The U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear accord has increased the price of gasoline significantly for American consumers. The price increases started over a month ago when it became apparent that Trump would withdraw.
April 2018 CPI: +2.5% Y-O-Y; Core +2.1%
Consumer Price Index Summary
As previously discussed, one expenditure item raises a question whether the BLS is capturing all of the inflationary pressures building in the economy, many of which are being aggravated by Donald's policies (e.g. lumber prices are rising due to Donald's tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber). In the detailed list of prices by item, the BLS claims that health insurance costs rose .2% over the twelve month period ending in April 2018. Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category (look under "Services less energy services" and then under "Medical Care Services")
+++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
The Stock Jocks do not care that Donald has withdrawn the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal. The only discernible impact has been a positive one on energy stocks.
Jamie Dimon sees 4% bond yields ahead- MarketWatch
The Stock Jocks do not care that Donald has withdrawn the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal. The only discernible impact has been a positive one on energy stocks.
Jamie Dimon sees 4% bond yields ahead- MarketWatch
Americans haven’t been this optimistic about house prices since just before the crash - MarketWatch
Walmart's Tax Windfall Will Create More Minimum Wage Jobs...In India: Forbes
Walmart's Tax Windfall Will Create More Minimum Wage Jobs...In India: Forbes
+++++
Michael Cohen: Swap Creature Extraordinaire
Cohen set up an LLC called Essential Consultants that was used to pay off Stormy. That entity also received $4.4 million starting in October 2016 through January 2018 that was allegedly compensation for Mr. Cohen's expertise on matters where he had no expertise. How Michael Cohen, Denied White House Job, Was Seen as Its Gatekeeper
It is not publicly known at the moment what happened to the money or whether any of those funds were used by Cohen to pay off Stormy and possibly other women. So far, Novartis has issued five statements trying to explain why it paid Essential Consultants $1.2M. Novartis official: Michael Cohen was 'promising access' after Trump election; Novartis Paid Cohen’s Firm Four Times as Much as It Paid Its Lobbyists; AT&T and Novartis’s payments to Michael Cohen are definitely sketchy - Vox
Michael Cohen Took Cash From Russian Oligarch After Election; Tycoon Viktor Vekselberg Tied to Michael Cohen Payment-Time; Firm Tied to Russian Oligarch Made Payments to Michael Cohen-The New York Times These payments may cause Donald some problems. I would assume that Mueller knows whether the money used to make these payments was sourced from Vekselberg, a close associate of Putin.
Firm Tied to Russian Oligarch Made Payments to Michael Cohen - The New York Times
Giuliani Says Trump Was 'Unaware' of Cohen's Consulting Income
+++
Senator Hatch (R-UT): 'Ridiculous' for John McCain to block Trump from funeral-CNN Prior to Hatch's criticism of McCain, I had never heard anyone criticizing a dying person's wish on who could or could not be invited to their funeral. Hatch referred to Trump as a "very good man".
Trump calls on Congress to pull back $15 billion in spending, including on Children’s Health Insurance Program
+++
Trump and Iran:
Trump repeatedly claimed during his campaign that the Iran nuclear deal was the worst agreement ever reached in history or words to that effect. Of course, Donald simply makes declarative statements without explaining why. The most likely reason IMO is that Obama did it and that is a sufficient reason to undo it.
To elicit cheers from the True Believers, it is only necessary for Donald to say that the treaty with Iran was one of the worst deals ever.
Discussing the pros and cons in an informed, intelligent and detailed fashion is not necessary. The explanations given by Donald for the withdrawal are riddled with false and misleading statements. Fact-checking President Trump’s reasons for leaving the Iran nuclear deal - The Washington Post
It is clear that the U.S. will be alone in reimposing sanctions on Iran. I seriously doubt that there will be any amended agreement during Trump's Presidency. The most likely outcome IMO would be an acceleration of Iran's development of nuclear weapons.
Another point is that the Trump Administration's U.S. Middle East policy appears to have been developed by Israel and Saudi Arabia, the new odd couple who both want the U.S. to take care of their problems with Iran and with Iraq when that country was under Saddam Hussein's leadership. Saudi Arabia also receives a substantial benefit from the rise in crude oil prices.
+++++
Trump as the Swamp Creature in Chief:
Scott Pruitt's is a teeny little pigling compared to Donald's feeding at the trough.
Ex-White House ethics chief: Trump’s Mar-a-Lago is a ‘symbol of corruption’
Trump Properties Earned a Fortune from GOP and Foreign Governments During President's First Year in Office: Report
Cohen set up an LLC called Essential Consultants that was used to pay off Stormy. That entity also received $4.4 million starting in October 2016 through January 2018 that was allegedly compensation for Mr. Cohen's expertise on matters where he had no expertise. How Michael Cohen, Denied White House Job, Was Seen as Its Gatekeeper
It is not publicly known at the moment what happened to the money or whether any of those funds were used by Cohen to pay off Stormy and possibly other women. So far, Novartis has issued five statements trying to explain why it paid Essential Consultants $1.2M. Novartis official: Michael Cohen was 'promising access' after Trump election; Novartis Paid Cohen’s Firm Four Times as Much as It Paid Its Lobbyists; AT&T and Novartis’s payments to Michael Cohen are definitely sketchy - Vox
Michael Cohen Took Cash From Russian Oligarch After Election; Tycoon Viktor Vekselberg Tied to Michael Cohen Payment-Time; Firm Tied to Russian Oligarch Made Payments to Michael Cohen-The New York Times These payments may cause Donald some problems. I would assume that Mueller knows whether the money used to make these payments was sourced from Vekselberg, a close associate of Putin.
Firm Tied to Russian Oligarch Made Payments to Michael Cohen - The New York Times
Giuliani Says Trump Was 'Unaware' of Cohen's Consulting Income
+++
Senator Hatch (R-UT): 'Ridiculous' for John McCain to block Trump from funeral-CNN Prior to Hatch's criticism of McCain, I had never heard anyone criticizing a dying person's wish on who could or could not be invited to their funeral. Hatch referred to Trump as a "very good man".
Trump calls on Congress to pull back $15 billion in spending, including on Children’s Health Insurance Program
+++
Trump and Iran:
Trump repeatedly claimed during his campaign that the Iran nuclear deal was the worst agreement ever reached in history or words to that effect. Of course, Donald simply makes declarative statements without explaining why. The most likely reason IMO is that Obama did it and that is a sufficient reason to undo it.
To elicit cheers from the True Believers, it is only necessary for Donald to say that the treaty with Iran was one of the worst deals ever.
Discussing the pros and cons in an informed, intelligent and detailed fashion is not necessary. The explanations given by Donald for the withdrawal are riddled with false and misleading statements. Fact-checking President Trump’s reasons for leaving the Iran nuclear deal - The Washington Post
It is clear that the U.S. will be alone in reimposing sanctions on Iran. I seriously doubt that there will be any amended agreement during Trump's Presidency. The most likely outcome IMO would be an acceleration of Iran's development of nuclear weapons.
Another point is that the Trump Administration's U.S. Middle East policy appears to have been developed by Israel and Saudi Arabia, the new odd couple who both want the U.S. to take care of their problems with Iran and with Iraq when that country was under Saddam Hussein's leadership. Saudi Arabia also receives a substantial benefit from the rise in crude oil prices.
+++++
Trump as the Swamp Creature in Chief:
Scott Pruitt's is a teeny little pigling compared to Donald's feeding at the trough.
Ex-White House ethics chief: Trump’s Mar-a-Lago is a ‘symbol of corruption’
Trump Properties Earned a Fortune from GOP and Foreign Governments During President's First Year in Office: Report
Presidency for Sale: 64 Trade Groups, Companies, Candidates, Foreign Governments and Political Groups Spending Money at Trump’s Properties - Corporate Presidency
GOP-affiliated groups have spent more than $3 million at Trump properties - ABC News
GOP-affiliated groups have spent more than $3 million at Trump properties - ABC News
+++++++++
1. Small Ball:
A. Initiated MDRX-Bought 30 at $11.69 and 10 at $11.28 (Used Commission Free Trades):
Quote: Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc. (MDRX)
MDRX Analyst Estimates
MDRX is a healthcare technology and services company that provides electronic health records; financial solutions to "support revenue cycle, claims management, budgeting and analytic functions of a healthcare organization, among others", a "community-connected population health management platform that delivers care coordination, patient engagement, connectivity, data aggregation and analytics"; and customizable professional and managed service offerings that include "hosting, consulting, optimization and managed IT services to revenue cycle services for practices."
The shares did bounce last Tuesday: MDRX $12.25 +$0.50 4.26%
Closing Price on 5/9/18: MDRX $12.47 +$0.22 +1.80%
I am not attributing that bounce to the earnings report released on 5/3/18, but to the proposed acquisition of a competitor. Elliott Management makes unsolicited bid for Athenahealth | Reuters
A. Initiated MDRX-Bought 30 at $11.69 and 10 at $11.28 (Used Commission Free Trades):
Quote: Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc. (MDRX)
MDRX Analyst Estimates
MDRX is a healthcare technology and services company that provides electronic health records; financial solutions to "support revenue cycle, claims management, budgeting and analytic functions of a healthcare organization, among others", a "community-connected population health management platform that delivers care coordination, patient engagement, connectivity, data aggregation and analytics"; and customizable professional and managed service offerings that include "hosting, consulting, optimization and managed IT services to revenue cycle services for practices."
A more detailed description can be found at pages 3-7 2017 Annual Report
Closing Price on 5/9/18: MDRX $12.47 +$0.22 +1.80%
I am not attributing that bounce to the earnings report released on 5/3/18, but to the proposed acquisition of a competitor. Elliott Management makes unsolicited bid for Athenahealth | Reuters
"Buying Program": Up to 100 shares in 10 or 20 share lots using small ball buying rule
Current Position: 40 Shares
Average Cost Per Share = $11.58
Dividend: NONE
Chart: Bear Market Trend
The stock recently topped out at $16 last January.
Prior Trade Discussions:
My current sell range is between $14 and $15.
Item 2.B. Sold 50 MDRX at $14.18 (12/11/17 Post)(profit snapshot=$69.48)-Item # 3,B, Bought 50 MDRX at $12.75 (11/13/17 Post)
Item # 2 Sold 50 MDRX at $14.32 (10/16/17 Post)(profit snapshot= $49.58)-Item # 2 Bought 50 MDRX at $13.28 Update For The Healthcare Basket Strategy As Of 5/9/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
SOLD MDRX at $11.82 (4/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot=$152.48)-BUY of 50 MDRX at $8.45 (2/3/2009 Post)-
MDRX Trading Profits to Date: $271.54
Earnings Report: This is the earnings report that I had when I made these two odd lot purchases. I knew that MDRX was going to release its first quarter report on 5/3 after the close which I will briefly discuss below.
Allscripts announces fourth quarter and 2017 full-year results
"GAAP earnings per share in the fourth quarter of 2017 were $0.03, compared with loss per share of $0.04 in the fourth quarter of 2016. Non-GAAP earnings per share in the fourth quarter of 2017 were $0.18, compared with $0.14 in the fourth quarter of 2016."
"Cash flow from operations for the fourth quarter of 2017 totaled $106 million, compared to $84 million the same period of 2016, due to strengthening business results. Free cash flow for the fourth quarter of 2017, totaled $68 million, compared to $41 million in the same period of 2016."
Bookings for the quarter were reported at $314M compared to $406M in the 2016 4th quarter.
"Gross margin in the fourth quarter of 2017 was 41.4 percent on a GAAP basis and 47.8 percent on a non-GAAP basis, compared with 43.8 and 48.1 percent, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2016."
2018 Guidance:
This outlook was affirmed in the 1st quarter report.
1st Quarter Earnings Report Released on 5/3/18: Allscripts announces first quarter 2018 results
The Stock Jocks were confused on how to react to this report. The stock did close at $11.64, up $.12 for the day, but traded as low as $11.09 and as high as $12.16 intra-day. I thought the after-market close price of $11.75 was about right. SunTrust upgraded the stock to buy from hold after the report.
"First quarter 2018 GAAP revenue was $514 million, an increase of 24 percent year-over-year. Non-GAAP revenue totaled $519 million, improving 25 percent year-over-year."
"Bookings were $304 million in the first quarter of 2018. This result compares with $286 million in the first quarter of 2017. Contract revenue backlog as of March 31, 2018, totaled $4.7 billion, up 19 percent compared to a year ago."
"GAAP loss per share in the first quarter of 2018 was $0.22, compared with loss per share of $0.11 in the first quarter of 2017. Non-GAAP earnings per share in the first quarter of 2018 were $0.16, compared with $0.13 in the first quarter of 2017."
Allscripts to significantly expand FollowMyHealth® patient engagement platform portfolio with new, advanced capabilities through acquisition of HealthGrid (5/3/18)
Allscripts to acquire Practice Fusion business (1/8/18)
Practice Fusion is one of the largest providers of cloud based physician electronic health care records ("EHR") with over 30K sites and 5M patients.
Allscripts closes acquisition of McKesson’s Enterprise Information Solutions business (10/2/17)
Analyst Reports:
In a report dated 4/27/18, S & P rated MDRX at 4 stars with a $18 twelve month price target. The analyst noted a concern about soft booking in the quarter.
In a report dated 4/16/18, Argus rated MDRX as a buy with a $15 price target. I view that target as more realistic than S & P's $18. I will currently sell my shares in the $14-$15 target range.
In a report dated 2/16/18, the Morningstar analyst gave a 3 star rating and a fair market value of $12.6 which I currently view as too low. The analyst mentioned the soft bookings, but the overall concern was based on the health care technology sector being highly competitive with two strong competitors in Cerner Corp. (CERN) and EPIC. Another concern is that the EHR business is becoming a commodity type business with no moats.
B. Bought 1 IBM at $143.72 and 1 at $142.25-Used Commission Free Trades:
Quote: International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)
Last Substantive Discussion: Item 1.A. (4/26/18 Post)
Warren Buffett says Berkshire Hathaway has sold completely out of IBM (Berkshire had initially bought 64M shares in 2011 at an average cost per share of $170) I had zero interest in IBM until the stock broke down below $150 recently and I am not exactly close to 64M shares in my buying spree)
IBM Position: 5 Shares
Maximum IBM Position: 20 Shares
Buying Restriction: Small Ball Rule
Average Cost Per Share: $145.65
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.57 per share ($6.28 annually)
IBM Board Approves Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 4.31%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 5/9/18
The stock did gain back $1.18 of the $1.57 dividend amount yesterday: IBM $142.61 +$1.18 +0.83%
Current Position: 40 Shares
Average Cost Per Share = $11.58
Dividend: NONE
Chart: Bear Market Trend
The stock recently topped out at $16 last January.
Prior Trade Discussions:
My current sell range is between $14 and $15.
Item 2.B. Sold 50 MDRX at $14.18 (12/11/17 Post)(profit snapshot=$69.48)-Item # 3,B, Bought 50 MDRX at $12.75 (11/13/17 Post)
Item # 2 Sold 50 MDRX at $14.32 (10/16/17 Post)(profit snapshot= $49.58)-Item # 2 Bought 50 MDRX at $13.28 Update For The Healthcare Basket Strategy As Of 5/9/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
SOLD MDRX at $11.82 (4/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot=$152.48)-BUY of 50 MDRX at $8.45 (2/3/2009 Post)-
MDRX Trading Profits to Date: $271.54
Earnings Report: This is the earnings report that I had when I made these two odd lot purchases. I knew that MDRX was going to release its first quarter report on 5/3 after the close which I will briefly discuss below.
Allscripts announces fourth quarter and 2017 full-year results
"GAAP earnings per share in the fourth quarter of 2017 were $0.03, compared with loss per share of $0.04 in the fourth quarter of 2016. Non-GAAP earnings per share in the fourth quarter of 2017 were $0.18, compared with $0.14 in the fourth quarter of 2016."
"Cash flow from operations for the fourth quarter of 2017 totaled $106 million, compared to $84 million the same period of 2016, due to strengthening business results. Free cash flow for the fourth quarter of 2017, totaled $68 million, compared to $41 million in the same period of 2016."
Bookings for the quarter were reported at $314M compared to $406M in the 2016 4th quarter.
"Gross margin in the fourth quarter of 2017 was 41.4 percent on a GAAP basis and 47.8 percent on a non-GAAP basis, compared with 43.8 and 48.1 percent, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2016."
2018 Guidance:
This outlook was affirmed in the 1st quarter report.
1st Quarter Earnings Report Released on 5/3/18: Allscripts announces first quarter 2018 results
The Stock Jocks were confused on how to react to this report. The stock did close at $11.64, up $.12 for the day, but traded as low as $11.09 and as high as $12.16 intra-day. I thought the after-market close price of $11.75 was about right. SunTrust upgraded the stock to buy from hold after the report.
"First quarter 2018 GAAP revenue was $514 million, an increase of 24 percent year-over-year. Non-GAAP revenue totaled $519 million, improving 25 percent year-over-year."
"Bookings were $304 million in the first quarter of 2018. This result compares with $286 million in the first quarter of 2017. Contract revenue backlog as of March 31, 2018, totaled $4.7 billion, up 19 percent compared to a year ago."
"GAAP loss per share in the first quarter of 2018 was $0.22, compared with loss per share of $0.11 in the first quarter of 2017. Non-GAAP earnings per share in the first quarter of 2018 were $0.16, compared with $0.13 in the first quarter of 2017."
The mean estimate using non-GAAP was $.17 per share. MDRX Analyst Estimates
"Adjusted EBITDA totaled $96 million in the first quarter of 2018, a 20 percent increase compared with the first quarter of 2017."
This company is frequently acquiring other businesses and has a number of non-cash and cask expenses that are made to GAAP net income to arrive at the Non-GAAP number:
Adjusted EBITDA Calculation:
Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) Q1 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
Recent News:
Recent News:
Allscripts to significantly expand FollowMyHealth® patient engagement platform portfolio with new, advanced capabilities through acquisition of HealthGrid (5/3/18)
Allscripts to acquire Practice Fusion business (1/8/18)
Practice Fusion is one of the largest providers of cloud based physician electronic health care records ("EHR") with over 30K sites and 5M patients.
Allscripts closes acquisition of McKesson’s Enterprise Information Solutions business (10/2/17)
Analyst Reports:
In a report dated 4/27/18, S & P rated MDRX at 4 stars with a $18 twelve month price target. The analyst noted a concern about soft booking in the quarter.
In a report dated 4/16/18, Argus rated MDRX as a buy with a $15 price target. I view that target as more realistic than S & P's $18. I will currently sell my shares in the $14-$15 target range.
In a report dated 2/16/18, the Morningstar analyst gave a 3 star rating and a fair market value of $12.6 which I currently view as too low. The analyst mentioned the soft bookings, but the overall concern was based on the health care technology sector being highly competitive with two strong competitors in Cerner Corp. (CERN) and EPIC. Another concern is that the EHR business is becoming a commodity type business with no moats.
B. Bought 1 IBM at $143.72 and 1 at $142.25-Used Commission Free Trades:
Quote: International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)
Last Substantive Discussion: Item 1.A. (4/26/18 Post)
Warren Buffett says Berkshire Hathaway has sold completely out of IBM (Berkshire had initially bought 64M shares in 2011 at an average cost per share of $170) I had zero interest in IBM until the stock broke down below $150 recently and I am not exactly close to 64M shares in my buying spree)
IBM Position: 5 Shares
Maximum IBM Position: 20 Shares
Buying Restriction: Small Ball Rule
Average Cost Per Share: $145.65
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.57 per share ($6.28 annually)
IBM Board Approves Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend
Dividend Yield at Average Cost: 4.31%
Last Ex Dividend Date: 5/9/18
The stock did gain back $1.18 of the $1.57 dividend amount yesterday: IBM $142.61 +$1.18 +0.83%
C. Bought 3 GIS at 42.82; 2 at $42.52; 2 at $41.56 and 2 at $41.12 -Used Commission Free Trades:
Quote: General Mills Inc. (GIS)
General Mills: Brands overview
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 3.A. (3/25/18 Post)
Last Sold:
Item #2.A. Sold 10 GIS at $56.18-Used Commission Free Trade (12/21/17 Post)
Snapshot of 2007-2016 Trades at Item 1.B: +$1,809.99
Position: 36+ Shares
Maximum Position: 200 Shares
Current Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (may change to unrestricted when and if the price falls below $38)
Average Cost Per Share: $46.87
Highest Cost Lot in Chain: 10 shares at $51.5 bought 10/27/17
Closing Price 5/9/18: GIS $42.51 +$0.21 +0.50%
D. Initiated FDRR-Bought 10 at $29.73 (Commission Free ETF To Fidelity Customers):
Quote: Fidelity Dividend ETF for Rising Rates Overview
Fidelity Stats on Date of Purchase:
Holdings: 111 Stocks as of 5/2/18
Some Holdings:
Expense Ratio: .29%
Maximum Postion: 100 Shares
Closing Price 5/9/18: FDRR $30.21 +$0.26 +0.87%
2. Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
I am picking up some yield through purchases of bonds that mature in 3 to 5 years. The yields are not that much different from similarly rated bonds maturing in 2024-2025.
A. Bought 2 Corporate Office Properties L.P. 3.7% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/15/21:
This bond's maturity is just 2 months outside of my short term bond maturity range.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Quote: General Mills Inc. (GIS)
General Mills: Brands overview
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 3.A. (3/25/18 Post)
Last Sold:
Item #2.A. Sold 10 GIS at $56.18-Used Commission Free Trade (12/21/17 Post)
Snapshot of 2007-2016 Trades at Item 1.B: +$1,809.99
Position: 36+ Shares
Maximum Position: 200 Shares
Current Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (may change to unrestricted when and if the price falls below $38)
Average Cost Per Share: $46.87
Highest Cost Lot in Chain: 10 shares at $51.5 bought 10/27/17
Closing Price 5/9/18: GIS $42.51 +$0.21 +0.50%
D. Initiated FDRR-Bought 10 at $29.73 (Commission Free ETF To Fidelity Customers):
Quote: Fidelity Dividend ETF for Rising Rates Overview
Fidelity Stats on Date of Purchase:
Holdings: 111 Stocks as of 5/2/18
Some Holdings:
Expense Ratio: .29%
Maximum Postion: 100 Shares
Closing Price 5/9/18: FDRR $30.21 +$0.26 +0.87%
2. Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
I am picking up some yield through purchases of bonds that mature in 3 to 5 years. The yields are not that much different from similarly rated bonds maturing in 2024-2025.
A. Bought 2 Corporate Office Properties L.P. 3.7% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/15/21:
This bond's maturity is just 2 months outside of my short term bond maturity range.
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Prospectus
Issuer: Operating Entity for Corporate Office Properties Trust (OFC) who guarantees the notes.
OFC SEC Filings
OFC 2017 Annual Report (debt listed and discussed starting at page F-43)
COPT Reports 4Q and Full Year 2017 Results
COPT Reports First Quarter 2018 Results
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.92 (includes $4 Vanguard Commission)
YTM at TC Then at 3.726%
Current Yield at TC = 3.7%
B. Bought 2 Highwoods Realty LP 3.2% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/15/21:
This bond also barely qualifies as intermediate term. I am starting to see more investment grade bonds maturing in 2021 with current yields greater than 3% and YTMs greater than 3.25%.
FINRA PAGE: Bond Detail (Prospectus linked)
Issuer: Operating entity for Highwoods Properties Inc. (HIW)
Website: Highwoods Properties
SEC Filings
2017 Annual Report
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.066
YTM at TC Then at 3.516%
Current Yield at 3.23%
C. Bought 1 Morgan Stanley 2.75% SU Bond Maturing on 5/19/22:
Finra Page: Bond Detail (Prospectus linked)
Issuer: Morgan Stanley (MS)
MS Analyst Estimates
Morgan Stanley profit climbs 38% to beat estimates - MarketWatch
Bought at a Total Cost of 97.017
YTM at TC Then at 3.544%
Current Yield at TC = 2.8346%
Issuer: Operating Entity for Corporate Office Properties Trust (OFC) who guarantees the notes.
OFC SEC Filings
OFC 2017 Annual Report (debt listed and discussed starting at page F-43)
COPT Reports 4Q and Full Year 2017 Results
COPT Reports First Quarter 2018 Results
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.92 (includes $4 Vanguard Commission)
YTM at TC Then at 3.726%
Current Yield at TC = 3.7%
B. Bought 2 Highwoods Realty LP 3.2% SU Bonds Maturing on 6/15/21:
This bond also barely qualifies as intermediate term. I am starting to see more investment grade bonds maturing in 2021 with current yields greater than 3% and YTMs greater than 3.25%.
FINRA PAGE: Bond Detail (Prospectus linked)
Issuer: Operating entity for Highwoods Properties Inc. (HIW)
Website: Highwoods Properties
SEC Filings
2017 Annual Report
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.066
YTM at TC Then at 3.516%
Current Yield at 3.23%
C. Bought 1 Morgan Stanley 2.75% SU Bond Maturing on 5/19/22:
Finra Page: Bond Detail (Prospectus linked)
Issuer: Morgan Stanley (MS)
MS Analyst Estimates
Morgan Stanley profit climbs 38% to beat estimates - MarketWatch
YTM at TC Then at 3.544%
Current Yield at TC = 2.8346%
3. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 Synchrony Financial 3% SU Bonds Maturing on 8/15/19:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Synchrony Financial (SYF)
2017 Annual Report (debt discussed starting at page 99)
Credit Ratings: BBB-
Last Bond Offering Prospectus (November 2017 for a 3.95% SU bond maturing in 2027)
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.927
YTM at TC Then at 3.055%
Current Yield at TC = 3.0022%
B. Bought 2 UBS Bank USA 1.9% CDs (monthly interest) Maturing on 10/30/18:
B. Bought 2 UBS Bank USA 1.9% CDs (monthly interest) Maturing on 10/30/18:
C. Bought 1 Treasury .875% Coupon Maturing on 10/15/18:
YTM = 1.9236%
I now own 4 bonds.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
YTM = 1.9236%
I now own 4 bonds.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Investors are becoming slightly more comfortable with nursing home REITs after OHI and SBRA released their third quarter reports.
ReplyDeleteSBRA released after the close yesterday:
Sabra Healthcare REIT Inc
$20.38 +$0.68 +3.45%
Last Updated: May 10, 2018 at 11:01 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/sbra
Last Discussed: Monday, February 12, 2018
Item 2.D. Added 10 SBRA at $16.21-Used Commission Free Trade:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/02/observations-and-sample-of-recent_12.html
Some of my largest percentage gains with the past month or so have been in out-of-favor REITs with one notable exception.
New Senior Investment Group Inc (SNR)
$7.27 -$1.40 -16.15%
Last Updated: May 10, 2018 at 11:03 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/snr
I did pare my position recently based on concerns that management would not sell the company and would do something else that would end up screwing SNR's shareholders.
Item # 2. Monday, April 16, 2018
2. Pared SNR: Sold 139+ Shares at $8.28:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/04/observations-and-sample-of-recent_16.html
The shareholders are not pleased with what the Board and management have done which is explained in the press release:
At the moment, I do not see any benefit to what they have done in terminating the Holiday triple net leases; entering into a management agreement with Holiday; and refinancing SNR's debt at a high spread to Libor which is increasing.
" The Company expects to refinance the existing debt with a one-year $720 million secured loan bearing interest at LIBOR plus 4.0% for the first six months and increasing by 50 basis points after the sixth monthly payment date and by an additional 50 basis points after the ninth monthly payment date. If the Company is successful in refinancing the existing debt, the Company is expected to incur approximately $65 million of prepayment fees and expenses."
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180510005575/en/
Holiday is controlled by SNR's external manager. Allegedly, "independent" Board members approved of this deal with Holiday as being in the best interests of SNR shareholders rather than of course the external manager and its owners.
The dividend will have to be slashed based on the first quarter's results. The prudent cut would be from $.26 to $.13 to $.15 per share given the negative Y-O-Y same store operating income and the FAD number. Normalized FAD was reported at $.18 per share for the first quarter. The company experienced a 4.8% decrease in NOI for its managed portfolio. The triple net lease portfolio experienced a +3.5% increase in Y-O-Y NOI.
So the Board and management laid multiple eggs this morning.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/05/observations-and-sample-of-recent_14.html