Economy:
Rising inflation, particularly at the gas pump, contributed to a higher than expected rise in retail sales last month. U.S. retail sales jump 0.8% in May, point to strong second-quarter GDP - MarketWatch
Second quarter real GDP growth will probably end up at greater than 3.5%, though the consensus is closer to 3% at the moment. GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Nowcasting Report- FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK The tax cuts are providing economic stimulus when none is needed and are fiscally irresponsible IMO. I believe that is the True Conservative position. The fiscal deterioration of the federal government will be aggravated of course by a rise in interest rates accompanying the surging budget deficits.
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Markets and Market Commentary:
Last Friday, Donald imposed a 25% tariff on $50B in Chinese imports and threatened to impose even more if China retaliated which will happen. Trump to slap 25% tariff on $50 billion of Chinese goods; China hits back: CNBC; Commerce Ministry: China will immediately implement tariffs on the same scale as the US; China to impose 25 percent tariffs on 659 U.S. goods worth $50 billion | Reuters
The Stock Jocks had an insignificant negative reaction to the tariff war escalation by the U.S..
The general consensus among the Stock Jocks is that cooler heads will prevail. The thinking is that tariffs are "just noise","make no difference" and are simply a "way of getting dialogue going," Those sentiments are expressed in this article. So Donald and Peter Navarro, who just said publicly that the Canadian P.M. deserved a special place in hell, are going to work things out just fine.
It is of course possible that Donald's gambit will work with China offering more trade concessions down the road than it would have otherwise agreed to do without the tariffs.
But, it is also possible, even though the Stock Stocks assign a zero percent chance, that foreign nations will react negatively to Donald's strong arm tactics and will respond in kind with no willingness to take a knee before our Dear Leader.
Perhaps the politicians who implemented the tariffs wars in 1930 believed that cooler heads would prevail too. The Great Depression Lesson About ‘Trade Wars’ - HISTORY
If I was in China's shoes, I would respond to Donald by implementing 25% tariffs on every agricultural product exported by the U.S. and every other product whose origin was in republican dominated states and congressional districts. I would then wait it out until the mid-term elections in November.
The fact that the Stock Jocks are not taking the market down much actually takes the pressure off Donald to compromise.
A fast 20% decline in the S & P 500 might persuade him to back off enough to permit a compromise deal.
It is my assessment that the Stock Jocks could care less about the tariff war. You would not know by looking at last Friday's closing numbers that anything of substance happened.
Closing Price 6/15/18: S & P 500 2,779.42 -3.07 -0.11%
The Stock Jocks had an insignificant negative reaction to the tariff war escalation by the U.S..
The general consensus among the Stock Jocks is that cooler heads will prevail. The thinking is that tariffs are "just noise","make no difference" and are simply a "way of getting dialogue going," Those sentiments are expressed in this article. So Donald and Peter Navarro, who just said publicly that the Canadian P.M. deserved a special place in hell, are going to work things out just fine.
It is of course possible that Donald's gambit will work with China offering more trade concessions down the road than it would have otherwise agreed to do without the tariffs.
But, it is also possible, even though the Stock Stocks assign a zero percent chance, that foreign nations will react negatively to Donald's strong arm tactics and will respond in kind with no willingness to take a knee before our Dear Leader.
Perhaps the politicians who implemented the tariffs wars in 1930 believed that cooler heads would prevail too. The Great Depression Lesson About ‘Trade Wars’ - HISTORY
If I was in China's shoes, I would respond to Donald by implementing 25% tariffs on every agricultural product exported by the U.S. and every other product whose origin was in republican dominated states and congressional districts. I would then wait it out until the mid-term elections in November.
The fact that the Stock Jocks are not taking the market down much actually takes the pressure off Donald to compromise.
A fast 20% decline in the S & P 500 might persuade him to back off enough to permit a compromise deal.
It is my assessment that the Stock Jocks could care less about the tariff war. You would not know by looking at last Friday's closing numbers that anything of substance happened.
Closing Price 6/15/18: S & P 500 2,779.42 -3.07 -0.11%
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Portfolio Management:
This snapshot of cash flow into one of my four taxable accounts shows where my head is at:
The mind set is to favor lending to well established and investment grade companies and banks through short and intermediate term bonds and FDIC insured CDs purchases, where I receive a promise to pay a sum certain on a specific date. The cash flow is designed to be small for each loan since the emphasis is on recurring cash flow from maturing securities and interest payments.
Current Small Ball List: Any new purchase has to be at price lower the price shown.
+++++++
Trump:
President Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims in 497 days - The Washington Post
Trump said that Manafort had "nothing to do with our campaign". Here’s what Trump said about Paul Manafort — hours before he was sent to jail
The fact that Manafort was actually Trump's campaign manager just illustrates-once again-that Trump will constantly state as a fact something that is demonstrably and obviously untrue.
It is in-your-face lying.
Trump also repeated the lie in the same interview that it was the Democrat's law that is separating children from their parents at the Mexican border when it is actually an order from Jeff Sessions. Trump again falsely blames the Democrats for his administration's family separations - CNN Trump knows that he is lying, and could care less since he is able to easily manipulate his base with demonstrably false statements. The separation started only after Jeff Sessions announced a change in U.S. policy called "zero tolerance". Memorandum for Federal Prosecutors Along the Southwest Border Sessions was not required by any law to issue that order.
++
The Justice Department presented evidence to a federal district court judge that Manafort was in fact tampering with witness testimony. That is a clear cut violation of his bail agreement and would warrant a revocation of his bail. Trump says that is harsh, particularly since the DOJ is not charging "Crooked Hillary", Comey and "all of the others":
Manafort did not receive "a tough sentence" but a revocation of his bail pending trial. Ex-Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort jailed after witness tampering charge - The Washington Post
++
President Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims in 497 days - The Washington Post
Trump said that Manafort had "nothing to do with our campaign". Here’s what Trump said about Paul Manafort — hours before he was sent to jail
The fact that Manafort was actually Trump's campaign manager just illustrates-once again-that Trump will constantly state as a fact something that is demonstrably and obviously untrue.
It is in-your-face lying.
Trump also repeated the lie in the same interview that it was the Democrat's law that is separating children from their parents at the Mexican border when it is actually an order from Jeff Sessions. Trump again falsely blames the Democrats for his administration's family separations - CNN Trump knows that he is lying, and could care less since he is able to easily manipulate his base with demonstrably false statements. The separation started only after Jeff Sessions announced a change in U.S. policy called "zero tolerance". Memorandum for Federal Prosecutors Along the Southwest Border Sessions was not required by any law to issue that order.
++
The Justice Department presented evidence to a federal district court judge that Manafort was in fact tampering with witness testimony. That is a clear cut violation of his bail agreement and would warrant a revocation of his bail. Trump says that is harsh, particularly since the DOJ is not charging "Crooked Hillary", Comey and "all of the others":
Manafort did not receive "a tough sentence" but a revocation of his bail pending trial. Ex-Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort jailed after witness tampering charge - The Washington Post
++
This is what happens to republicans who offer the faintest criticism of Donald: Trump critic Mark Sanford falls in South Carolina GOP primary-CNN; Even a Whiff of Disloyalty to Trump Can Imperil a G.O.P. Incumbent-The New York Times (Martha Roby, who represents Alabama's Second Congressional District, withdrew her support for Trump after the Access Hollywood Tape, but has voted "nearly in lock step" with Donald.)
Others who have criticized Donald have chosen to "retire" before losing an election to a Trumpster.
Donald Trump represents GOP values, and even the mildest form of criticism will result in ostracism from the party.
Trump Celebrates Virginia U.S. Senate Primary Win By Alt-Right Pal Corey Stewart | Mediaite (Mr. Stewart made Confederate statues the main issue in his campaign and has close ties to "both anti-Semite Paul Nehlen and Jason Kessler, organizer of the 2017 white power rally in Charlottesville"); Senate Candidate Corey Stewart Praised White Nationalist Paul Nehlen, Neo-Nazi
Contrary to Donald's belief that the free press is the "enemy of the people" in a Democracy, it is Donald and like minded authoritarians, who hold the free press in contempt, who are the greatest dangers to our freedoms and democracy.
America has had over the past 100 years a large percentage of the population who would support an authoritarian leader.
The rise of an authoritarian demagogue has historically been limited to times of economic stress such as the Great Depression where two demagogues achieved considerable sway over Americans. I am referring to Huey Long (D), who was one of the most successful demagogues in American political history, and the openly anti-democratic and racist Father Charles Coughlin whose radio broadcasts reached almost 40M people. Both were insignificant compared to Donald and the scope of his hold over American voters.
In 1968, the demagogue and racist George Wallace had a similar approval rating to Donald now, a claim that I recently saw in the book How Democracies Die.
Joseph McCarthy would qualify as another, but he never threatened to move higher than a U.S. Senator from Wisconsin.
Until Trump was elected, none of the American demagogues actually came close to becoming President. Wallace came the closest with 13.5% of the vote in 1968.
How Democracies Die' Authors Say Trump Is A Symptom Of 'Deeper Problems' : NPR; How Democracies Die review – Trump and the shredding of norms | Books | The Guardian
I agree wholeheartedly with this observation made by Thomas Friedman:
"First Donald Trump remade the Republican Party in his own image, and now he is trying to remake America the same way — into a selfish, dishonest country with no close friends, totally unpredictable, free of any commitment to enduring values, ready to stab any ally in the back on Twitter if it doesn’t do our bidding and much more comfortable with mafia-like dictators than elected democrats." Opinion | Trump: Trying to Remake America in His Own Image - The New York Times
Alexander Hamilton made a prescient observation in the Federalist Papers. "History will teach us" that "of those men who have overturned the liberties of republics, the greater number have begun their career by paying an obsequious court to the people; commencing demagogues, and ending as tyrants". The Federalist #1
Given the military might of the U.S., the greatest danger to U.S. democracy and freedoms comes from within and that threat is substantial and growing.
Trump returns salute of North Korean general at summit, state media footage reveals - CNN
Cohen signals openness to cooperating with federal investigators
The 49 wildest quotes from Donald Trump's bananas interview with Fox News - CNNPolitics (one of my favorites is his statement "there is no trade war, there is no trade war" on the day he announced $50B in new tariffs against China. China: 'The US has launched a trade war'; Five whoppers from President Trump’s impromptu news conference - The Washington Post)
Trump praises Kim’s authoritarian rule, says ‘I want my people to do the same’ - The Washington Post (“He’s the head of a country, and I mean he’s the strong head. Don’t let anyone think anything different. He speaks and his people sit up at attention. I want my people to do the same.” Donald was kidding right? Just in case he was telling us what he really wants in his heart, I want Donald to know that I clapped so loudly when I saw this video that my hands will need two days rest)
+++++++
Trump Foundation:
Trump Foundation lawsuit: New York attorney general alleges violations of charities law - CNN; N.Y. Attorney General Sues Trump Foundation Over Self-Dealing - The New York Times
Complaint
After reviewing the complaint and the hard evidence provided therein, the only conclusion possible is that Trump engaged in persistent lawless conduct.
New York attorney general sues Trump Foundation, alleging vast illegal activity
5 details from the New York attorney general lawsuit against the Trump Foundation
Trump used this foundation to pay personal expenses.
For example, in 2007, Trump's Mar-A-Lago Club was faced with $120K in fines levied by Palm Beach. Trump settled the case by having his foundation pay $100K to a charity in return for Palm Beach waiving that fine.
In another case, one of Trump's golf courses settled a suit by having the foundation pay $150K to a charity.
Trump used the Foundations money to buy a large portrait of himself.
The Foundation also made a $25K illegal campaign contribution to the Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi who had under her jurisdiction an investigation, later dropped, into the fraudulent activities of Trump University. Trump Foundation under fire in New York, reviving Bondi connection | Tampa Bay Times
Those scams were previously reported by several news organization that Trump and his acolytes view as the Fake News Media because they report facts that undermine their alternate reality creations.
In a new revelation, it is alleged that Trump raised $2.8M for veterans at an Iowa event shortly before that state held its 2016 election caucus. The money was then turned over to the Trump campaign for disbursement by Corey Lewandowski to achieve a political advantage in the Iowa Caucuses which Trump ultimately won and that win made him a player in the GOP field. Just disgusting. Here's how the Trump Foundation helped buy victory in the Iowa caucuses — Quartz
Trump views the factual charges as politically motivated:
Donald does not want anyone to actually focus on the facts that are spelled out in great detail in the complaint. And, it goes without saying that Donald is above the law and not subject to such pedestrian restraints as a mere mortal.
And nothing that Trump does or has done in the past will change the opinion of his supporters, roughly 40% of the U.S. adult population.
Republicans will of course simply ignore the facts or dismiss them as false or unimportant no matter how true and important.
Schneiderman resigned as the New York Attorney General last month.
The suit was brought by the career prosecutor Barbara Underwood who is a Democrat.
The NY AG also referred the matter to the IRS: How the I.R.S. Could Punish Trump and His Foundation - The New York Times (Trump signed the foundation's tax returns. "In 2007, Vincent Fumo, then a powerful Democratic state senator in Pennsylvania, was indicted by the Justice Department for misusing a charity run by a former member of his government staff. A federal jury convicted him. Mr. Fumo’s punishment: four years in prison.") The IRS would be too scared IMO to challenge Donald even in a civil proceeding. Opinion | Why the I.R.S. Should Go After Trump - The New York Times
There are good reasons why Donald will never release his tax returns and none of those reasons reflect favorably on him. Given the evidence about his frequently nefarious financial history and dealings, expert examination of those returns would lead to a variety of unfavorable news items for Donald.
++++++++++
DOJ's Inspector General Report:
Inspector general blasts Comey and also says others at FBI showed ‘willingness to take official action’ to hurt Trump - The Washington Post
This email exchange between FBI employees is highly improper and would warrant their firing (only Strzok currently works at the FBI):
Lisa Page: “[Trump’s] not ever going to become president, right? Right?!”
Peter Strzok: “No. No he won’t. We’ll stop it.”
Strzok has volunteered to testify before Congress and discuss what he knew about Trump's activities when he made that statement. FBI agent removed from Russia probe for anti-Trump texts says he’s willing to testify before Congress
DOJ IG report faults Comey on Clinton email probe, but says not politically motivated - CNN
“We found no evidence that the conclusions by department prosecutors were affected by bias or other improper considerations. Rather, we concluded that they were based on the prosecutor’s assessment of facts, the law, and past department practice.” {Page vii of the Report Full Report DOJ OIG Releases Report on Various Actions by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Justice in Advance of the 2016 Election}
Further, the finding that the evidence did not justify charging Clinton "was consistent with the department's historical approach in prior cases under different leadership, including in the decision not to prosecute former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales for mishandling classified documents".
I will wait eagerly for Donald to tweet the previous two findings. If I miss that tweet, someone needs to provide me with a link.
Comey Broke From FBI Procedures in Clinton Probe, Watchdog Finds
The report does provide some fodder for Donald, but the major points contradict his story lines. Analysis: Report Gives Trump an Opening, but Undercuts His Narrative
Contrary to Donald's spin, the main point about Comey is that he broke FBI protocol by publicly discussing the Clinton email investigation, a discussion that helped Donald win the election. That is not new news.
We will never know one way or the other whether that serious breach of protocol cost Clinton the election. Holding a news conference to announce that the email investigation had been re-opened ten days before the election after finding emails on Weiner's computer only helped Hillary in the alternate reality inhabited by Donald and his followers.
Having said all of that, Hillary was clearly a bad choice to run for President. She had far too much baggage and a poor favorability rating.
While the nation is frequently presented with two bad options for President, this last election was unique IMO in just how bad both of those options were.
++++++
Trump promised millions to charity. We found less than $10,000 over 7 years. - The Washington Post (another reason why Trump will not release his tax returns since they would show a lack of charitable giving in years that he promised to make donations)
Sessions cites Bible to justify separating kids from parents at the border - MarketWatch; Attorney General Jeff Sessions quotes Bible to defend immigration policies - BBC News (Maybe Jeff will be surprised by the decision when he attempts to enter the Pearly Gates-Revelation 21:21.)
Bible verse Sessions used to defend immigration policy once defended slavery; Romans 13: A History of Jeff Sessions's Favorite Verse - The Atlantic
What does the Bible verse Jeff Sessions quoted really mean? - CNN
Sessions cited Romans 13: "Let everyone be subject to the governing authorities, for there is no authority except that which God has established. The authorities that exist have been established by God. Consequently, whoever rebels against the authority is rebelling against what God has instituted, and those who do so will bring judgment on themselves."
I bet that is Donald's favorite bible passage as well.
Donald has caused the separation of 1,995 children from their parents between April 19 and May 31. DHS: Nearly 2,000 children separated from adults at the border
Trump Again Falsely Blames Democrats for His Separation Tactic - The New York Times; How Trump Came to Enforce a Practice of Separating Migrant Families - The New York Times
Trump repeated this lie in a Saturday tweet. He will never stop lying since lying works so well for him:
Lying works easily on the willfully ignorant. Willful Ignorance and Self-Deception | Psychology Today
Inside Border Protection's processing detention center: Chain link fences and thermal blankets - CNN
Sessions takes responsibility for implementing this policy at Trump's request and claims it can be justified by the Bible.
What is really happening? Trump, while professing feigned empathy and concern, are holding these children as hostages to get what he wants on other immigration issues, including restrictions on legal immigration and the entire border wall. Trump suggests separation of families at border a negotiating tool Trump has the power to reverse these separations by calling Jeff and telling him to rescind his order.
++
South Korea, U.S. to announce suspension of major military drills this week: Yonhap | Reuters Before the summit, Putin told Donald that the drills were provocative and Donald adopted that instruction. Trump stopping "war games" with South Korea was Putin's idea — Quartz (references WSJ article)
Dennis Hof, Nevada's most famous pimp, wins GOP primary
Steve King (R-Iowa) retweets prominent Nazi sympathizer, sparks controversy King represents Iowa's 4th congressional district which is primarily rural, and King personifies many of the desired characteristics among modern day republicans. Steve King-Wikipedia (King displayed a confederate flag on his desk); Republicans embrace the ‘cult’ of Trump-The Washington Post
Scott Pruitt’s abuses of power, ranked - The Washington Post;
EPA chief Scott Pruitt tapped aide, donors to help wife land job at conservative group - The Washington Post ("Environmental Protection Agency chief Scott Pruitt last year had a top aide help contact Republican donors who might offer his wife a job, eventually securing her a position at a conservative political group that has backed him for years, according to multiple individuals familiar with the matter.")
The Gallup poll currently has Trump's job approval at 45% as of 6/17/18, up from 42% in the prior week as many American's accepted Donald's version of the NK summit.Trump Job Approval (Weekly)
The RealClearPolitics websites aggregates and averages all of the polls and currently has an average approval rating of 44.3% with the last data coming from 6/17.
Trump does have unusually strong approval and strong disapproval numbers. Those numbers are not likely to change much between now and the 2020 election. IMO, a lot of the strong disapprovals are primarily based on Trump's character which is viewed as repulsive by millions. There are still people in the U.S. who believe telling the truth is a conservative value.
Others who have criticized Donald have chosen to "retire" before losing an election to a Trumpster.
Donald Trump represents GOP values, and even the mildest form of criticism will result in ostracism from the party.
Trump Celebrates Virginia U.S. Senate Primary Win By Alt-Right Pal Corey Stewart | Mediaite (Mr. Stewart made Confederate statues the main issue in his campaign and has close ties to "both anti-Semite Paul Nehlen and Jason Kessler, organizer of the 2017 white power rally in Charlottesville"); Senate Candidate Corey Stewart Praised White Nationalist Paul Nehlen, Neo-Nazi
Contrary to Donald's belief that the free press is the "enemy of the people" in a Democracy, it is Donald and like minded authoritarians, who hold the free press in contempt, who are the greatest dangers to our freedoms and democracy.
America has had over the past 100 years a large percentage of the population who would support an authoritarian leader.
The rise of an authoritarian demagogue has historically been limited to times of economic stress such as the Great Depression where two demagogues achieved considerable sway over Americans. I am referring to Huey Long (D), who was one of the most successful demagogues in American political history, and the openly anti-democratic and racist Father Charles Coughlin whose radio broadcasts reached almost 40M people. Both were insignificant compared to Donald and the scope of his hold over American voters.
In 1968, the demagogue and racist George Wallace had a similar approval rating to Donald now, a claim that I recently saw in the book How Democracies Die.
Joseph McCarthy would qualify as another, but he never threatened to move higher than a U.S. Senator from Wisconsin.
Until Trump was elected, none of the American demagogues actually came close to becoming President. Wallace came the closest with 13.5% of the vote in 1968.
How Democracies Die' Authors Say Trump Is A Symptom Of 'Deeper Problems' : NPR; How Democracies Die review – Trump and the shredding of norms | Books | The Guardian
I agree wholeheartedly with this observation made by Thomas Friedman:
"First Donald Trump remade the Republican Party in his own image, and now he is trying to remake America the same way — into a selfish, dishonest country with no close friends, totally unpredictable, free of any commitment to enduring values, ready to stab any ally in the back on Twitter if it doesn’t do our bidding and much more comfortable with mafia-like dictators than elected democrats." Opinion | Trump: Trying to Remake America in His Own Image - The New York Times
Alexander Hamilton made a prescient observation in the Federalist Papers. "History will teach us" that "of those men who have overturned the liberties of republics, the greater number have begun their career by paying an obsequious court to the people; commencing demagogues, and ending as tyrants". The Federalist #1
Given the military might of the U.S., the greatest danger to U.S. democracy and freedoms comes from within and that threat is substantial and growing.
Trump returns salute of North Korean general at summit, state media footage reveals - CNN
Cohen signals openness to cooperating with federal investigators
The 49 wildest quotes from Donald Trump's bananas interview with Fox News - CNNPolitics (one of my favorites is his statement "there is no trade war, there is no trade war" on the day he announced $50B in new tariffs against China. China: 'The US has launched a trade war'; Five whoppers from President Trump’s impromptu news conference - The Washington Post)
Trump praises Kim’s authoritarian rule, says ‘I want my people to do the same’ - The Washington Post (“He’s the head of a country, and I mean he’s the strong head. Don’t let anyone think anything different. He speaks and his people sit up at attention. I want my people to do the same.” Donald was kidding right? Just in case he was telling us what he really wants in his heart, I want Donald to know that I clapped so loudly when I saw this video that my hands will need two days rest)
+++++++
Trump Foundation:
Trump Foundation lawsuit: New York attorney general alleges violations of charities law - CNN; N.Y. Attorney General Sues Trump Foundation Over Self-Dealing - The New York Times
Complaint
After reviewing the complaint and the hard evidence provided therein, the only conclusion possible is that Trump engaged in persistent lawless conduct.
New York attorney general sues Trump Foundation, alleging vast illegal activity
5 details from the New York attorney general lawsuit against the Trump Foundation
Trump used this foundation to pay personal expenses.
For example, in 2007, Trump's Mar-A-Lago Club was faced with $120K in fines levied by Palm Beach. Trump settled the case by having his foundation pay $100K to a charity in return for Palm Beach waiving that fine.
In another case, one of Trump's golf courses settled a suit by having the foundation pay $150K to a charity.
Trump used the Foundations money to buy a large portrait of himself.
The Foundation also made a $25K illegal campaign contribution to the Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi who had under her jurisdiction an investigation, later dropped, into the fraudulent activities of Trump University. Trump Foundation under fire in New York, reviving Bondi connection | Tampa Bay Times
Those scams were previously reported by several news organization that Trump and his acolytes view as the Fake News Media because they report facts that undermine their alternate reality creations.
In a new revelation, it is alleged that Trump raised $2.8M for veterans at an Iowa event shortly before that state held its 2016 election caucus. The money was then turned over to the Trump campaign for disbursement by Corey Lewandowski to achieve a political advantage in the Iowa Caucuses which Trump ultimately won and that win made him a player in the GOP field. Just disgusting. Here's how the Trump Foundation helped buy victory in the Iowa caucuses — Quartz
Trump views the factual charges as politically motivated:
And nothing that Trump does or has done in the past will change the opinion of his supporters, roughly 40% of the U.S. adult population.
Republicans will of course simply ignore the facts or dismiss them as false or unimportant no matter how true and important.
Schneiderman resigned as the New York Attorney General last month.
The suit was brought by the career prosecutor Barbara Underwood who is a Democrat.
The NY AG also referred the matter to the IRS: How the I.R.S. Could Punish Trump and His Foundation - The New York Times (Trump signed the foundation's tax returns. "In 2007, Vincent Fumo, then a powerful Democratic state senator in Pennsylvania, was indicted by the Justice Department for misusing a charity run by a former member of his government staff. A federal jury convicted him. Mr. Fumo’s punishment: four years in prison.") The IRS would be too scared IMO to challenge Donald even in a civil proceeding. Opinion | Why the I.R.S. Should Go After Trump - The New York Times
There are good reasons why Donald will never release his tax returns and none of those reasons reflect favorably on him. Given the evidence about his frequently nefarious financial history and dealings, expert examination of those returns would lead to a variety of unfavorable news items for Donald.
++++++++++
DOJ's Inspector General Report:
Inspector general blasts Comey and also says others at FBI showed ‘willingness to take official action’ to hurt Trump - The Washington Post
This email exchange between FBI employees is highly improper and would warrant their firing (only Strzok currently works at the FBI):
Lisa Page: “[Trump’s] not ever going to become president, right? Right?!”
Peter Strzok: “No. No he won’t. We’ll stop it.”
Strzok has volunteered to testify before Congress and discuss what he knew about Trump's activities when he made that statement. FBI agent removed from Russia probe for anti-Trump texts says he’s willing to testify before Congress
DOJ IG report faults Comey on Clinton email probe, but says not politically motivated - CNN
“We found no evidence that the conclusions by department prosecutors were affected by bias or other improper considerations. Rather, we concluded that they were based on the prosecutor’s assessment of facts, the law, and past department practice.” {Page vii of the Report Full Report DOJ OIG Releases Report on Various Actions by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Justice in Advance of the 2016 Election}
Further, the finding that the evidence did not justify charging Clinton "was consistent with the department's historical approach in prior cases under different leadership, including in the decision not to prosecute former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales for mishandling classified documents".
I will wait eagerly for Donald to tweet the previous two findings. If I miss that tweet, someone needs to provide me with a link.
Comey Broke From FBI Procedures in Clinton Probe, Watchdog Finds
The report does provide some fodder for Donald, but the major points contradict his story lines. Analysis: Report Gives Trump an Opening, but Undercuts His Narrative
Contrary to Donald's spin, the main point about Comey is that he broke FBI protocol by publicly discussing the Clinton email investigation, a discussion that helped Donald win the election. That is not new news.
We will never know one way or the other whether that serious breach of protocol cost Clinton the election. Holding a news conference to announce that the email investigation had been re-opened ten days before the election after finding emails on Weiner's computer only helped Hillary in the alternate reality inhabited by Donald and his followers.
Having said all of that, Hillary was clearly a bad choice to run for President. She had far too much baggage and a poor favorability rating.
++++++
Trump promised millions to charity. We found less than $10,000 over 7 years. - The Washington Post (another reason why Trump will not release his tax returns since they would show a lack of charitable giving in years that he promised to make donations)
Sessions cites Bible to justify separating kids from parents at the border - MarketWatch; Attorney General Jeff Sessions quotes Bible to defend immigration policies - BBC News (Maybe Jeff will be surprised by the decision when he attempts to enter the Pearly Gates-Revelation 21:21.)
Bible verse Sessions used to defend immigration policy once defended slavery; Romans 13: A History of Jeff Sessions's Favorite Verse - The Atlantic
What does the Bible verse Jeff Sessions quoted really mean? - CNN
Sessions cited Romans 13: "Let everyone be subject to the governing authorities, for there is no authority except that which God has established. The authorities that exist have been established by God. Consequently, whoever rebels against the authority is rebelling against what God has instituted, and those who do so will bring judgment on themselves."
I bet that is Donald's favorite bible passage as well.
Donald has caused the separation of 1,995 children from their parents between April 19 and May 31. DHS: Nearly 2,000 children separated from adults at the border
Trump Again Falsely Blames Democrats for His Separation Tactic - The New York Times; How Trump Came to Enforce a Practice of Separating Migrant Families - The New York Times
Trump repeated this lie in a Saturday tweet. He will never stop lying since lying works so well for him:
Lying works easily on the willfully ignorant. Willful Ignorance and Self-Deception | Psychology Today
Inside Border Protection's processing detention center: Chain link fences and thermal blankets - CNN
Sessions takes responsibility for implementing this policy at Trump's request and claims it can be justified by the Bible.
What is really happening? Trump, while professing feigned empathy and concern, are holding these children as hostages to get what he wants on other immigration issues, including restrictions on legal immigration and the entire border wall. Trump suggests separation of families at border a negotiating tool Trump has the power to reverse these separations by calling Jeff and telling him to rescind his order.
++
South Korea, U.S. to announce suspension of major military drills this week: Yonhap | Reuters Before the summit, Putin told Donald that the drills were provocative and Donald adopted that instruction. Trump stopping "war games" with South Korea was Putin's idea — Quartz (references WSJ article)
Dennis Hof, Nevada's most famous pimp, wins GOP primary
Steve King (R-Iowa) retweets prominent Nazi sympathizer, sparks controversy King represents Iowa's 4th congressional district which is primarily rural, and King personifies many of the desired characteristics among modern day republicans. Steve King-Wikipedia (King displayed a confederate flag on his desk); Republicans embrace the ‘cult’ of Trump-The Washington Post
Scott Pruitt’s abuses of power, ranked - The Washington Post;
EPA chief Scott Pruitt tapped aide, donors to help wife land job at conservative group - The Washington Post ("Environmental Protection Agency chief Scott Pruitt last year had a top aide help contact Republican donors who might offer his wife a job, eventually securing her a position at a conservative political group that has backed him for years, according to multiple individuals familiar with the matter.")
The Gallup poll currently has Trump's job approval at 45% as of 6/17/18, up from 42% in the prior week as many American's accepted Donald's version of the NK summit.Trump Job Approval (Weekly)
Trump does have unusually strong approval and strong disapproval numbers. Those numbers are not likely to change much between now and the 2020 election. IMO, a lot of the strong disapprovals are primarily based on Trump's character which is viewed as repulsive by millions. There are still people in the U.S. who believe telling the truth is a conservative value.
+++++
1. Small Ball:
A. Sold 18 XOM at $81.33-Used Commission Free Trade:
Profit Snapshot: $84.68
Quote: Exxon Mobil Corp.
Closing Price Last Friday (6/5): XOM $80.66 -$1.23 -1.50%
Last Substantive Discussions :Item 3.A (3/19/18 Post) and ITEM # 2.A. (2/19/18 Post)
Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)
It appears that the rise in crude oil's price has topped out and turned down in response to increased supply. As noted in my prior posts discussing Exxon, I am not a fan.
B. Bought 30 REXRPRB at $23.33-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: Rexford Industrial Realty Inc. 5.875% Cumulative Preferred Series B Stock
Closing Price Last Friday (6/15): REXR-PA $23.95
Issuer: Rexford Industrial Realty Inc. (REXR)
Rexford Industrial Announces First Quarter 2018 Financial Results
Rexford Industrial Announces Fourth Quarter And Full Year 2017 Financial Results
REXR SEC FILINGS
REXR 2017 Annual Report (properties listed starting at page 31; debt discussed starting at page 74)
Capital Structure: Superior only to common stock
REXR.PB Stock Chart
Prospectus
Par Value= $25
Optional Call Date: At par value on or after 11/13/22
Dividend: Cumulative, non-qualified and quarterly
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/14/18 (shortly after purchase)
Yield at $23.33 = 6.3%
Rationale: Part of my ongoing effort to increase my portfolio's weighted average yield
Prior Round-Trip Related Security: Item 3.B. Sold 50 REXRPRA at $23.2 (1/27/17 Post)
If I average down, the price would have to be below $20 with the price decline due solely to a rise in interest rates rather than to any adverse change in the issuer's creditworthiness.
A. Sold 18 XOM at $81.33-Used Commission Free Trade:
Profit Snapshot: $84.68
Quote: Exxon Mobil Corp.
Closing Price Last Friday (6/5): XOM $80.66 -$1.23 -1.50%
Last Substantive Discussions :Item 3.A (3/19/18 Post) and ITEM # 2.A. (2/19/18 Post)
Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)
It appears that the rise in crude oil's price has topped out and turned down in response to increased supply. As noted in my prior posts discussing Exxon, I am not a fan.
B. Bought 30 REXRPRB at $23.33-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: Rexford Industrial Realty Inc. 5.875% Cumulative Preferred Series B Stock
Closing Price Last Friday (6/15): REXR-PA $23.95
Issuer: Rexford Industrial Realty Inc. (REXR)
Rexford Industrial Announces First Quarter 2018 Financial Results
Rexford Industrial Announces Fourth Quarter And Full Year 2017 Financial Results
REXR SEC FILINGS
REXR 2017 Annual Report (properties listed starting at page 31; debt discussed starting at page 74)
Capital Structure: Superior only to common stock
REXR.PB Stock Chart
Par Value= $25
Optional Call Date: At par value on or after 11/13/22
Dividend: Cumulative, non-qualified and quarterly
Last Ex Dividend Date: 6/14/18 (shortly after purchase)
Yield at $23.33 = 6.3%
Rationale: Part of my ongoing effort to increase my portfolio's weighted average yield
Prior Round-Trip Related Security: Item 3.B. Sold 50 REXRPRA at $23.2 (1/27/17 Post)
If I average down, the price would have to be below $20 with the price decline due solely to a rise in interest rates rather than to any adverse change in the issuer's creditworthiness.
C. Sold 50 ARCC at $16.98-In a Roth IRA Account:
Quote: Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC)
ARCC Website
2017 Annual Report
History This ROTH IRA Account:
Profit Snapshot: +$63.24
Item # 1.A. Bought 50 ARCC at $15.44-In a Roth IRA Account (2/22/18 Post)
Net Asset Value Per Share as of 3/31/18: $16.84 10-Q at page 3
Dividend: Quarterly at $.38 per share ARCC-Dividends
Total ARCC Trading Profits (all accounts): $525.41
Rationale: Capital preservation is my primary goal, and that goal is on steroids in my Roth IRA accounts. ARCC was the only BDC owned in a Roth IRA account since it is viewed as the best externally managed BDC. Even with that opinion, I will only own a few shares and will tightly manage the position.
I also started a small ball buying program in my Fidelity account where I have an abundance of free trades. Item # 2.A. (3/25/18 Post)
D. Sold 50 FNB at $13.9-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: F.N.B. Corp. (FNB)
FNB Analyst Estimates
Profit Snapshot: +$51.59
Item # 2.A. Bought 50 FNB at $12.87 (5/14/18 Post)
Closing Price Last Friday: FNB $13.82 +$0.03 +0.22%
For the reasons discussed in that post and numerous others, I have an unfavorable opinion about this bank.
This is yet another elimination of my position in this stock.
Last Round-Trip Discussions:
Item 2.A. Sold 60 FNB at $14.59 (3/5/2018)Item # 1.C Added 10 FNB-Used Commission Free Trade (11/30/17 Post) and Item # 4.B. Bought Back 50 FNB at $13.59-Used Commission Free Trade (10/23/17 Post)
Item # 4.A. Sold 100 FNB at $13.94-Satellite Taxable Account (10/23/17 Post)-Item # 1.A. Bought 100 FNB at $12.43 (9/14/17 Post)
Trading Profits to Date: $1,143.74 (prior trades at $1,092.15: snapshots in Stocks, Bonds & Politics: REGIONAL BANK BASKET STRATEGY GATEWAY POST)
I received one quarterly dividend of $.12 per share. FNB Dividend History-Dividend Channel (highly unfavorable with a 50% slash in 2009 and no increases since that slash)
2. Bought 200 Shares TransAlta Renewables (100 shares using CADs and 100 Shares Using USDs):
A. Bought 100 RNW:CA at C$12.91 (C$1 IB Commission):
QUOTE: TransAlta Renewables Inc. (Canada: Toronto)
Website: TransAlta Renewables
Closing Price Last Friday: RNW.TO C$12.61 +C$0.19 +1.53%
Facilities in Operation/Development | TransAlta Renewables
Dividends: Monthly at C$.07833 per share (C.$94 annually)
Dividend Information | TransAlta Renewables
Dividend Yield at C$12.91 = 7.28%
Organizational Chart: TransAlta Corp. (Canada: Toronto) owns 39.2% of RNW stock.
Recent Earnings Report: Q/E 3/31/18
RNW-Q1-2018.pdf
Recent News: TransAlta Renewables Announces the Acquisition of Three Renewable Assets from TransAlta Corporation, Implementation of a Dividend Reinvestment Plan and Declares Dividends ("TransAlta Renewables has acquired an economic interest in the 50 MW Lakeswind Wind Farm in Minnesota and 21 MW of solar projects located in Massachusetts, from TransAlta Corporation. In addition, TransAlta Renewables acquired ownership of the 20 MW Kent Breeze Wind Farm located in Ontario. The total purchase price for the three assets, which have an average weighted contract life of 15 years, is $166 million, including the assumption of $62 million of tax equity obligations and project debt. The equity value of $104 million represents a 10x multiple of CAFD and is expected to be accretive on a per share basis. TransAlta Renewables will fund the equity value portion of the acquisition using existing liquidity.")
The rapid decline in solar panel costs and improvements in technology may make solar power generation more competitive with natural gas. This company only has one solar power facility.
One potential negative for an independent power generation company is what happens have a power purchase agreement expires. Will the company then be able to market the output to a buyer and at what price? The company provides information on the PPA contract expirations here.
B. Bought 100 TRSWF at $9.55-Used Commission Free Trade:
OTC Markets | TRSWF
Closing Price Last Friday: TRSWF $9.4246 -$0.0584 -0.62%
The ordinary shares traded in Toronto and priced in CADs rose 1.53%. The CAD/USD declined in value.
Subsequent to my purchase discussed above, the company sold 11.86M shares at C$12.65 with an overallotment option for the underwriters of up to an additional 1.779M shares. TransAlta Renewables Announces $150 Million Bought Deal Offering of Common Shares
The ordinary shares do trade in the U.S. Grey Market under the symbol TRSWF. As previously discussed, the Grey Market is dark with no bid/ask prices and trading is at best sporadic and light. The investor has to use limit orders and has to determine the limit price by converting the CAD price into a USD price. Some brokers charge a non-standard commission rate.
I will only use Schwab to execute orders in the GM since the conversion has already been done by that broker when displaying a quote and the ordinary commission rate applies. Schwab takes the CAD quote and converts that price into a USD price. My ordinary commission rate in my Schwab account is still zero, but will increase to the standard rate of $4.95 within two months.
I received one quarterly dividend of $.12 per share. FNB Dividend History-Dividend Channel (highly unfavorable with a 50% slash in 2009 and no increases since that slash)
2. Bought 200 Shares TransAlta Renewables (100 shares using CADs and 100 Shares Using USDs):
A. Bought 100 RNW:CA at C$12.91 (C$1 IB Commission):
QUOTE: TransAlta Renewables Inc. (Canada: Toronto)
Website: TransAlta Renewables
Closing Price Last Friday: RNW.TO C$12.61 +C$0.19 +1.53%
Dividends: Monthly at C$.07833 per share (C.$94 annually)
Dividend Information | TransAlta Renewables
Dividend Yield at C$12.91 = 7.28%
Organizational Chart: TransAlta Corp. (Canada: Toronto) owns 39.2% of RNW stock.
Recent Earnings Report: Q/E 3/31/18
RNW-Q1-2018.pdf
Recent News: TransAlta Renewables Announces the Acquisition of Three Renewable Assets from TransAlta Corporation, Implementation of a Dividend Reinvestment Plan and Declares Dividends ("TransAlta Renewables has acquired an economic interest in the 50 MW Lakeswind Wind Farm in Minnesota and 21 MW of solar projects located in Massachusetts, from TransAlta Corporation. In addition, TransAlta Renewables acquired ownership of the 20 MW Kent Breeze Wind Farm located in Ontario. The total purchase price for the three assets, which have an average weighted contract life of 15 years, is $166 million, including the assumption of $62 million of tax equity obligations and project debt. The equity value of $104 million represents a 10x multiple of CAFD and is expected to be accretive on a per share basis. TransAlta Renewables will fund the equity value portion of the acquisition using existing liquidity.")
The rapid decline in solar panel costs and improvements in technology may make solar power generation more competitive with natural gas. This company only has one solar power facility.
One potential negative for an independent power generation company is what happens have a power purchase agreement expires. Will the company then be able to market the output to a buyer and at what price? The company provides information on the PPA contract expirations here.
B. Bought 100 TRSWF at $9.55-Used Commission Free Trade:
OTC Markets | TRSWF
Closing Price Last Friday: TRSWF $9.4246 -$0.0584 -0.62%
The ordinary shares traded in Toronto and priced in CADs rose 1.53%. The CAD/USD declined in value.
Subsequent to my purchase discussed above, the company sold 11.86M shares at C$12.65 with an overallotment option for the underwriters of up to an additional 1.779M shares. TransAlta Renewables Announces $150 Million Bought Deal Offering of Common Shares
The ordinary shares do trade in the U.S. Grey Market under the symbol TRSWF. As previously discussed, the Grey Market is dark with no bid/ask prices and trading is at best sporadic and light. The investor has to use limit orders and has to determine the limit price by converting the CAD price into a USD price. Some brokers charge a non-standard commission rate.
I will only use Schwab to execute orders in the GM since the conversion has already been done by that broker when displaying a quote and the ordinary commission rate applies. Schwab takes the CAD quote and converts that price into a USD price. My ordinary commission rate in my Schwab account is still zero, but will increase to the standard rate of $4.95 within two months.
3. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 People's United BK 1.85% CDs Maturing on 9/6/18 (3 month CDs):
Holding Company: People's United Financial Inc. (PBCT)
PBCT Analyst Estimates
B. Bought 1 Nextera Energy Capital 2.3% SU Bond Maturing on 4/1/19-In a Roth IRA Account:
I now own 4 bonds. Currently, I currently own $15K in Nextera SU bonds maturing between 9/1/18 and 9/15/19 with $9K maturing on 9/1/18.
B. Bought 1 Nextera Energy Capital 2.3% SU Bond Maturing on 4/1/19-In a Roth IRA Account:
FINRA PAGE: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Prospectus
Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE) who guarantees the bonds.
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/18
2017 Annual Report
2018 1st Quarter Earnings Press Release-SEC Filing
Credit Ratings:
Fitch Affirms Ratings for NextEra Energy Capital at A- ; Outlook Stable (4/4/18)
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.83
YTM at TC Then at 2.505%
Current Yield at TC = 2.3039%
C. Bought 2 Investors Bank 1.9% CDs Maturing on 10/9/18:
Holding Company Investors Bancorp Inc. (ISBC)
ISBC Analyst Estimates
Investors Bancorp, Inc. Announces First Quarter Financial Results and Cash Dividend
I have no intermediate term bond purchases to discuss. I am waiting for yields to rise before starting back with some light buying. Proceeds from maturing short term bonds and CDs will largely be rolled over for now into more of the same.
While intermediate term interest rates moved down late last week, and may continue that decline as trade tensions accelerate, the bottom line is that tariffs are taxes that raise prices and are inflationary in their impact initially. The tariffs provide domestic producers with an umbrella to raise prices as foreign products become less competitive on price due to a 10% to 25% tariff. Domestic buyers who have to buy the foreign product will try to pass some or all of the increased cost onto their domestic customers.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
I have no intermediate term bond purchases to discuss. I am waiting for yields to rise before starting back with some light buying. Proceeds from maturing short term bonds and CDs will largely be rolled over for now into more of the same.
While intermediate term interest rates moved down late last week, and may continue that decline as trade tensions accelerate, the bottom line is that tariffs are taxes that raise prices and are inflationary in their impact initially. The tariffs provide domestic producers with an umbrella to raise prices as foreign products become less competitive on price due to a 10% to 25% tariff. Domestic buyers who have to buy the foreign product will try to pass some or all of the increased cost onto their domestic customers.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Verastem Inc.
ReplyDelete$7.23 +0.6927 10.61%
Last Updated: Jun 18, 2018 at 9:32 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/vstm
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180616005012/en/
""History will teach us" that "of those men who have overturned the liberties of republics, the greater number have begun their career by paying an obsequious court to the people; commencing demagogues, and ending as tyrants"."
ReplyDeleteThis may be true, for all I know, but it's worth noting that the quotation fits Hamilton's own extreme anti-populist politics suspiciously well.
"While the nation is frequently presented with two bad options for President, this last election was unique IMO in just how bad both of those options were."
ReplyDeleteI heard of a certain professor of Classical Studies who said on Election Day in 1972 (Nixon-McGovern): "Now I have to go choose between a fool and a knave."
David: At least McGovern thought the Vietnam War was a bed idea and had served admirably in WWII.
DeleteI would not call Hamilton an extreme anti-populist. Those who participated in the Constitutions drafting recognized the need for checks and balances. David Brooks, an old fashioned republican, correctly noted that the country was "built by anti-populists" and Hamilton was certainly one who wanted a strong central government and a national economy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/26/opinion/26brooks.html
“Give all the power to the many, they will oppress the few. Give all the power to the few, they will oppress the many.”
“On the other hand, it will be equally forgotten that the vigor of government is essential to the security of liberty; that, in the contemplation of a sound and well-informed judgment, their interest can never be separated; and that a dangerous ambition more often lurks behind the specious mask of zeal for the rights of the people than under the forbidden appearance of zeal for the firmness and efficiency of government. History will teach us that the former has been found a much more certain road to the introduction of despotism than the latter, and that of those men who have overturned the liberties of republics, the greatest number have begun their career by paying an obsequious court to the people; commencing demagogues, and ending tyrants."
https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/51287.Alexander_Hamilton
Verastem Inc. (VSTM):
ReplyDelete$8.58 +$2.05 +31.39%
Volume 21,168,793
Avg. Volume 1,587,282
Market Cap 629.716M
"duvelisib is starting to come across as a viable platform drug for various forms of hematological malignancies, which could translate into some truly stellar sales figures down the road."
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VSTM?p=VSTM
As I previously discussed, VSTM has a NDA filed with the FDA which an action date on or before 10/5/18.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/06/18/why-verastems-stock-is-bolting-higher-today.aspx
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180409005377/en/FDA-Accepts-New-Drug-Application-Duvelisib-Grants
I own 50 shares as part of my small cap biotech lottery ticket basket:
Item 1. A. Bought 50 VSTM at $4.73
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/05/observations-and-sample-of-recent_28.html
++
I mentioned in a prior comment that the rally in consumer stable stocks was not likely to last for long:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/06/observations-and-sample-of-recent_11.html?showComment=1528739733871#c1138509151186738104
The rally was sold today.
Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF
$30.77 -$0.44 -1.41%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fsta
While I am just guessing about the future, sentiment remains sufficiently negative for stocks in this sector that a mere hope about a turnaround will not cause any sustained recovery in share prices. There will need to facts to support that turnaround story and then the sector can take off. The next main data point will be GIS earnings scheduled to be released before the market opens on 6/27.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gis/analystestimates
Housing starts rose to an 11 year high in May.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-19/u-s-housing-starts-rise-to-decade-high-while-permits-decline
The Stock Jocks were reassured last Friday by Donald that there was no trade war.
That had to be true since Donald said it twice: "There is no trade war. There is no trade war". Some attribute this quote to Lenin: "A lie told often enough becomes the truth." Others thought that Joseph Goebbels was the first to utter that observation. Whatever, there is some truth to this observation when the observer focuses on the ignorant and stupid among us.
The Stock Jocks believed Donald until this morning when a few of them started to wonder that maybe all of this trade stuff could possibly be relevant.
E-Mini Dow Sep 2018
24,659 -357
Last Updated: Jun 19, 2018 at 7:46 a.m. CDT
In TrumpWorld, it is important to repeat a statement over and over and over again so that it becomes true even if it is clearly false or just more of Donald's Bull Shit which oozes daily from every pore in his body.
Comedians' Take of Donald's Perpetual BS Machine:
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2018/apr/24/trevor-noah-trump-bullshit-foundation-late-night
The stock downdraft in pre-market trading originates from Donald threatening to impose $200B in additional tariffs on China in the event China levies tariffs on U.S. exports in response to Donald's $50B in 25% tariffs. If implemented, virtually all exports from China would be hit with tariffs.
China has made clear that it would respond in kind. This is not a new development. Trump has made this threat previously and China has been consistent in saying that it will respond in kind.
Treasuries and the German bonds are receiving a lift in a flight to quality move.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkde-10y?countrycode=bx
The negative sentiment is currently spilling over into PM prices.
I went through one of my early morning drills. I saw that my January 2019 CD and bond maturities were still light.
ReplyDeleteI first looked at Fidelity's CD offerings for that month. The best rate was 2.15% with monthly interest payments. I next checked a treasury maturing on 1/15/19. For a 1 bond purchase, the YTM was 2.111% for a 1.125% coupon.
I next checked the corporate bonds. I saw a Black Hills 2.5% maturing on 1/11/19 priced at 99.891. I had previously one. I now own 2 having bought 1 more at a total cost of 99.991 with gives me a current yield and YTM of a sliver over the 2.5% coupon (2.515% YTM at total cost)
http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C645881
The liquidity benefit clearly favors the treasury bill. Since I will not have to sell anything if I don't want to, I went with the higher YTM. I have no current concerns about Blacks Hills, an electric utility, paying off this loan in 6 months.
Notwithstanding the narrowing of the yield curve today and the decline in longer term interest rates, the regional bank ETF is in the green:
ReplyDeleteS&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
63.88+0.24 (+0.38%)
As of 1:29PM EDT
Generally, the smaller regional banks are doing better than the super regionals. The movement may be explained by the U.S. centric businesses of those smaller banks.
Equity REITs are generally holding up with several still in the green that I own, though the REIT index ETFs have just declined into the red:
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)
$78.81-0.17 (-0.22%)
Day's Range 78.75 - 79.28
As of 1:33PM EDT
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VNQ/?p=VNQ
Several BDC and consumer staple stocks are up as well.
I regard today's stock market decline as insignificant and consequently the Stock Jocks have not really started yet to price a major trade war which Trump's trade advisor Peter Navarro views as beneficial to American businesses, though he did qualify his bullish view with "eventually".
China is not reacting well to Trump's threats calling them blackmail.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-trump/china-slams-u-s-blackmailing-as-trump-issues-new-trade-threat-idUSKBN1JE2ZQ
++
I have $11K in maturing CDs this week in my Schwab account. Of those $6K matured yesterday and I have redeployed 1/2 of that amount in a 2.3% monthly interest CD maturing in June 2019 and a U.S. treasury bill maturing on 5/31/19 which has the same YTM. The treasury is more liquid but pays semi-annually. I will generally go with the monthly interest CD when the treasury YTM is equal to or less than the CD's coupon.
Utilities also bucked the minor downtrend today.
ReplyDeleteVanguard Utilities ETF (VPU)
$113.48 $1.20 1.07%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vpu
The .4% decline in the S & P 500 was so tepid that I would not know by looking just at the market's action that anything of a negative nature was happening.
The ramifications of tariffs go far beyond the dollar value of the exports.
Major supply chain disruptions can be expected to occur in a major trade involving several large economies.
Companies that depend on exports will cut spending and jobs.
Companies that provide services and goods to companies that lose exports will be adversely impacted.
It is not just an Iowa farmer who loses soybean sales to China, but also the middleman, processors, and shippers of that product (rail and sea).
The cost of goods for American consumers will rise eating into discretionary spending.
Profits will decrease in several industries.
Foreign countries targeted by Donald may sell treasury holdings or refuse to buy more pending a dispute resolution.
Citizens in foreign countries are already organizing boycotts of American products, including those produced locally.
Who could blame the Canadians after what Donald and Navarro said about their PM?
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/06/18/starbucks-microsoft-heinz-trump-inspires-canadians-boycott-goods/706671002/
The Stock Jock consensus remains that nothing serious will happen and the tariffs will be nothing more than a short term negotiating tactic.
Nothing has changed about my observations made in this post based on today's action. Investors are just not concerned about a trade war spinning out of control.
South Gent,
ReplyDeleteRe. ".... Hillary was clearly a bad choice to run for President. She had far too much baggage and a poor favorability rating. ...." the 2016 race was so close yet so far for Hillary. Individually none of the 2016 election events will hurt her chance of winning, but when combined and with social media fiascos the scale has tipped.
Y: There was a negative cumulative effect.
DeleteWhile I would argue that the email issue did not warrant a criminal indictment, Clinton showed poor judgment in keeping a private email server that she used for personal and government business.
The republicans made a big deal out of Benghazi, but they would have defended a republican Secretary of State where there was a similar breakdown in security at an embassy. The entire two year Benghazi episode was both an example of republican hypocrisy and an attempt to stain Hillary for political purposes as Kevin McCarthy admitted.
The problem with the Democrats is that they have lost contact with the middle class white working men and women. Those voters were at one time part of the FDR coalition.
Listening to Hillary, and other Democrats, you would have thought the election was about transgender persons right to use the bathroom of their choice.
The white middle class voters were not hearing much for them but only for the poor and cultural minorities.
And better control of the border has not seemed like a Democrat priority at all, nor has providing worthwhile alternatives for those displaced by foreign competition.
Trump has an innate ability to play to those concerns that the Democrats have ignored or just swept under the rug.
At the minimum those voters believed that the Democrats did not care about them.
Trump's ability to connect to them, however, is with lies and misleading statements that appeal to their worst instincts and fears. Most of his policy prescriptions will end up hurting those who support him the most and will accelerate the U.S. government's day of fiscal reckoning.
The republicans have an uncanny ability to convince middle class voters that they are helping them when the objective is to help those who contribute large sums to their campaigns including the top 1% and the pollution industry.
Perhaps, those voters would need to be reminded what the republican politicians will do to them when they have an unfettered ability to enact laws in Washington.
The 2011 Ryan budget is just an example, passed almost unanimously by the republicans, where large tax cuts were given to the wealthiest Americans; social programs were slashed including those relied on by rural Americans that are heavily republican; and Medicare premiums would have been doubled for those than 55 years or younger compared to traditional Medicare when they become eligible. I called that later effort at the time a transparent effort to bankrupt most members of the middle class in their golden years, but those so impacted would continue voting for those who wanted to visit that plague upon them.
South Gent,
ReplyDeleteRe "....The entire two year Benghazi episode was both an example of republican hypocrisy and an attempt to stain Hillary for political purposes ...". It was so clear that Hilary would run again and the negative campaign against her started long before that. However, nobody took Trump's election campaign serious until it was too late to stop him.
Y: There would be a large number of men who would never vote for an intelligent and informed woman for President, even if the candidate was likable. Makes them feel inadequate. Misogyny is certainly prevalent particularly when one person is a high school educated man and the other is a well educated, intelligent and successful woman.
DeleteThe GOP campaign to discredit Hillary began before Bill Clinton was elected. Many of those efforts involved conduct that were successfully branded by the GOP as being unethical or even criminal. Large segments of the American population are vulnerable to false branding of political opponents.
While criminal charges were never brought and were probably never justified by hard evidence, there was smoke to some of these prior events that left a bad taste and gave an appearance of being somewhat on the less than ethical side of the equation.
https://www.npr.org/2016/06/12/481718785/clinton-scandals-a-guide-from-whitewater-to-the-clinton-foundation
I would emphasize that Trump has done far worse but nothing stuck to him among his supporters. Instead, what stuck was Donald's derogatory branding of both republicans and Democrats who opposed him (e.g. "Crooked Hillary")
These events like "Whitewater" and "Travelgate" were branded so successfully by the GOP that the mere mention of the name proved misconduct to millions without regard to any knowledge about the underlying evidence or lack thereof.
The same is true of the more recent GOP effort that falls under the brands "Clinton Foundation" and "Uranium One".
But the problem is that this largely successful branding of allegedly illegal business conduct and other alleged nefarious activities would not have been successful if tried against Obama, Carter or Truman.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/06/observations-and-sample-of-recent_21.html