Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: IBM, NBRV, NVS, VOD

Economy: 

CoreLogic Reports April Home Prices Up, Washington State Increased 12.8 Percent (CoreLogic Home Price Index increased nationally by 6.9 percent year over year from April 2017 to April 2018. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 1.2 percent in April 2018)

U.S. trade deficit falls to seven-month low in April| Reuters

Household wealth tops $100 trillion for first time - MarketWatch

Sourced Federal Reserve.pdf

New warnings about cuts to Social Security and Medicare are a reason to worry - MarketWatch

Retaliatory tariffs may hit 46 percent of U.S. spirits exports: trade body | Reuters

Calculated Risk: AAR: Rail Carloads Up 3.2% YoY, Intermodal Up 6.6% YoY

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Markets and Market Commentary: 

Leon Cooperman says he would sell stocks on strength: CNBC

Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates hedge fund said to be bearish on financial assets: CNBC

Bullish sentiment hits highest level since February as stock rally charges on - MarketWatch

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Trump: 

In just another bizarre statement, Donald called the Canadian Prime Minister "very dishonest and weak", adding that Trudeau was also so "meek".  

Donald is doing everything that he can to alienate America's traditional allies among western democracies. 

While Putin recently lavished praise on Donald, Trump is doing whatever he can to implement Putin's playbook for disrupting U.S. relations with western democracies and fragmenting the EU and NATO. 

Trump calls for Russia to be reinstated to G-7, threatens allies on trade - The Washington Post

Under Trump, “America First” Really Is Turning Out to Be America Alone | The New Yorker

France condemns Trump 'anger' after G7

European leaders are outraged by Trump over G-7 statement. But they’re not surprised. - The Washington Post (Donald is the quintessential Ugly American)

NBC/WSJ poll: Trump's support has gotten deeper — but not broader  

First Canada Tried to Charm Trump. Now It’s Fighting Back. - The New York Times

The TV personality Larry Kudlow claimed that Trudeau betrayed Donald without offering specifics. Trump's trade advisor Peter Navarro said there was "special place in hell" for Canada's PM.   

The Canadians claim that Trudeau has maintained the same positions privately and publicly. U.S.-Canada spat escalates after tense G7, Europeans criticize Trump | Reuters The general consensus among foreign leaders was that Trump threw a temper tantrum after foreign leaders pushed back on Donald's trade agenda. Trump's sycophants then doubled down in hurling insults in their effort to defend him.    

The U.S. has an agricultural trade surplus with its trading partners.  USDA ERS - U.S. Agricultural Trade at a Glance ("U.S. agricultural exports grew steadily over the last two decades, reaching $140.47 billion in 2017, from $56.2 billion in 1995.") When other activities related to those exports are included, such as processing and manufacturing, the total economic impact is close to $316B annually. Advances for US Agricultural Exports in Trade War Jeopardy | Global Trade Magazine 

If there is an escalation in trade tensions, foreign governments will levy more tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, which China and Mexico have already done in response to the U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products. More agricultural tariffs would probably target rural areas that overwhelmingly supported Donald in the election. The general idea would be to punish those responsible for electing Donald the most. 

The stock market has substantially downplayed the possibility that trade tensions will escalate which does not take into account Donald's potential to cause major economic disruptions while throwing a hissy fit reflecting his maturity level.   

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This is just one more highly inappropriate tweet from Donald: 

Once again, Donald is misusing presidential power to interfere in a pending criminal case.

Claire Finkelstein, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania, correctly noted that it “highly improper for the president to weigh in on a pending case and to urge the Justice Department not to accept a plea deal involving Mr. Awan and his wife.” Trump urges punishment for former House IT worker - The Washington Post  

Trump of course does not provide any evidence to even warrant an investigation of congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL). Right wing media outlets have claimed, without providing a scintilla of evidence, that Awan hacked the server rather than Russia. In addition to his clear cut abuse of presidential power, Trump is fabricating a conspiracy to cast doubt on the conclusions made by U.S. intelligence agencies about Russia's involvement in the DNC server hack.   

Awan worked as an IT specialist in the House. Trump as usual gives conspiracy theories that have no factual foundation credence. Awan was charged with bank fraud for submitting false information to a bank in loan documents. 

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Special counsel Mueller indicts Paul Manafort, Russian associate on obstruction charges (Mueller's "witch hunt" has so far snagged 20 individual witches and 3 corporate witches, with several of the witches pleading guilty. While Manafort has not yet plead guilty to any charges, he looks done to me)

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Putin has requested that Donald arrange a summit in Vienna, Austria through Austria's Chancellor Sebastian Kurz who just closed several mosques and who regularly receives praise from Russia's state controlled media outlets. Kurz is widely viewed as a Trump acolyte and fervent xenophobe. Austria to close 7 mosques, expel imams in crackdown-ABC News; Putin visits his best buddy in the EU: Austria's Sebastian Kurz; Sebastian Kurz, 31, will be Austria's next chancellor; Austria’s Welcome to a Party With a Nazi Past - The New York Times; Austria Offers to Host Trump And Putin for Summit in Vienna - Bloomberg; Putin asks Austrian leader to organize summit with Trump this summer - MarketWatch

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Republicans Want to Dismantle ACA's Pre-Existing Condition Protections:  

Trump's Justice Department will not defend the ACA's requirement that required insurers to provide coverage to those with pre-existing conditions at the same premiums as those with none. That requirement is being attacked as unconstitutional by 20 states controlled by republicans. 

Sessions said the DOJ will not "defend the pre-existing conditions provision as well as one forbidding insurers from charging people in the same community different rates based on gender, age, health status or other factors." Reuters; Trump administration won’t defend ACA in case brought by GOP states - The Washington Post; Letter from Attorney General Jeff Sessions regarding Texas v. United States No. 4:18-cv-00167-0 (N.D. Tex.) 

In the event the republicans are successful in removing the pre-existing condition and other consumer protections from the ACA, there would be a measure of justice meted out to voters who depend on those protections and who voted for Trump and other republicans. ‘You’ve handed us an issue’: Democrats pounce on Trump administration’s health-care move - The Washington Post ("Republicans on Capitol Hill had no advance warning that the administration was going to assert that protections for people with preexisting conditions is unconstitutional — a position that defies President Trump’s promises to maintain those protections.")

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Pruitt enlisted security detail in picking up dry cleaning, moisturizing lotion - The Washington Post

Pruitt is just another one of Trump's small time grifters. At least Trump thinks big in his grifts. One of Trump's smaller grifts was the Trump "University". What Donald Trump’s University Reveals About His Nature | Time; Trump University: It’s Worse Than You Think | The New Yorker; Judge finalizes $25 million settlement for 'victims of Donald Trump's fraudulent university' - ABC News

A scandal for all seasons: those Scott Pruitt ethics violations in full

The Chemical Industry Scores a Big Win at the E.P.A. - The New York Times (EPA will not evaluate the impact of chemical exposure through air and water contamination, focusing instead on their impact in the workplace)  

Senate Investigators May Have Found a Missing Piece in the Russia Probe

Muhammad Ali's lawyer says Trump's proposed pardon 'out of the blue' - CNN (Ali can not be pardoned since he was not convicted of any crime. His conviction was overturned on appeal)

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1. Small Ball:
  
A. Bought 5 VOD at $26.16; 5 at $25.87; and 5 at $25.27-Used Commission Free Trades:

The last 5 share buy at $25.27 was made after the ex dividend date which occurred on 6/7.  

Quote: Vodafone Group PLC ADR   (ADR)

Last Substantive Discussion: Item 1.B. Bought 20 VOD at $26.57(5/24/18 Post)

Maximum Position: 100 Shares

Current Position: 35 Shares

Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule

Average Cost Per Share: $26.22 

Semi-Annual Ex Dividend Date: 6/7/18 ($1.223661 per share)

I will be looking to buy more shares after the ex dividend date, provided the shares continue to decline. I was willing to buy a few shares prior to the upcoming ex dividend date since the shares have declined recently more than the value of the dividend.

Last Sell Discussion: Item 1.A. Sold 51+ VOD at $30.21 (11/30/17 Post)

I am gradually buying back that 51+ share lot at lower prices. I will be reinvesting the dividend. 

B. Bought 1 IBM at $140.67-Used Commission Free Trade:

Last Substantive Discussion: Item 1.A. (4/26/18 Post)

Current Position: 6 Shares (using commission free trades)

Maximum Position: 20 shares

Average Cost Per Share = $144.81

Dividend: Quarterly at $1.57 per share ($6.28 annually)

Dividend Yield at Average Total Cost = 4.38%

Last Ex Dividend Date: 5/9/18

My next buy will be 2 shares somewhere in the $138 to $140 range.

C. Bought 2 Novartis (NVS) at $74.76-Used Commission Free Trade:

Quote: Novartis AG ADR (NVS)

Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 1.B. Added 2 NVS at $77.91, 2 at $76.9, and 18 at $77.34-Used Commission Free trades (4/30/18 Post)

I decided to restart my small ball buying program after the stock extended its price decline.

Last Sold: Item 2.A. Sold 30 NVS at $93.85 (2/3/18 Post)

Chart: Bear Market Trend

Current Position This Account: 44+ Shares

Maximum Position: 50 Shares in this account

Average Cost Per Share in this Account = $79.55

Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (now at 2 share lot buys; each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain)

Dividend: Annually

NVS has been raising the dividend in Swiss Francs. For the owner of NVS, the gross amount will depend on the CHF/USD conversion rate. The 2018 dividend was $2.9365 per share.

Last Ex Dividend Date: 3/16/18

I also own 108+ shares in another taxable account with an average total cost per share of $74.63.

Recent News Since Last Substantive Discussion:

Novartis announces JCO publication of Lutathera® NETTER-1 data showing significantly longer time to deterioration of key quality of life measures in patients with progressive midgut NETs (6/7/18)

Third Novartis Phase III trial shows Kisqali® combination therapy significantly improves PFS in HR+/HER2- advanced breast cancer | Novartis (6/3/18)

Novartis completes sale of stake in consumer healthcare joint venture to GSK for USD13.0 billion (6/1/18)

Sandoz receives positive CHMP opinion for proposed biosimilar adalimumab (6/1/18)(the brand name for this compound is Humira)  

FDA expedites review of Novartis drug Promacta® for first-line severe aplastic anemia (SAA) (5/30/18)

Novartis and Amgen announce FDA approval of Aimovig(TM) (erenumab), a novel treatment developed specifically for migraine prevention (5/18/18)


2. Small/Nano Cap Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy:

A. Bought 50 NBRV at $4.47 ($1 Commission-IB):

Quote: Nabriva Therapeutics PLC (NBRV)

Company Website: Clinical Stage Biopharmaceutical Company | Nabriva.com

Pipeline:

Nabriva Therapeutics Announces Positive Topline Results from Pivotal Phase 3 Clinical Trial of Oral Lefamulin for the Treatment of Community-Acquired Bacterial Pneumonia ("In LEAP 2, lefamulin met the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) primary endpoint of non-inferiority (NI, 10.0% margin) compared to moxifloxacin for early clinical response (ECR) assessed 72 to 120 hours following initiation of therapy in the intent to treat (ITT) patient population. ECR was 90.8% for the 5-day treatment course of lefamulin and 90.8% for the 7-day treatment course of moxifloxacin (treatment difference 0.1 [95% confidence interval (CI) -4.4, 4.5])." emphasis added)

The company intends to file a NDA for this drug during the 2018 4th quarter. The indication would be for moderate community-acquired bacterial pneumonia. Moxifloxacin is a generic and would be cheaper than NBRV's alternative. Since the NBRV drug is not superior, I would suspect that an existing generic antibiotic would be used initially and then another drug when the generic fails. Growing immunity to existing antibiotics is a major health problem. 

Another issue is that other new classes of antibiotics will be competing against one another for treating common infections. In an upcoming post, I will be discussing one of those new antibiotics Omadacycline owned by Paratek which I have repurchased after flipping the stock at least three times: Cantor Fitzgerald Thinks Paratek Pharmaceuticals' Stock is Going to Recover.

The stock initially gained after this announcement and then sold off, probably due to the side effects which are similar to the generic except that NBRV's drug had significantly more incidences of diarrhea and nausea, which are treatable in a hospitable setting. 

Nabriva Therapeutics unveils positive results in bacterial pneumonia drug trial - MarketWatch

I do not know whether this drug will be approved by the regulatory agencies.

The stock does fit into what I am looking for when selecting lottery tickets in the small/nano cap clinical stage drug company sector. There is one drug that has finished its phase 3 trial. The market capitalization is about $178M at $4.47. The company says that it has enough cash to fund operations into the 2020 first quarter:

Recent Financial Report: Q/E 3/31/18

Nabriva Therapeutics Reports First Quarter 2018 Financial Results and Recent Corporate Highlights  

3. Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy: 

A. Bought 2 Select Income 4.5% SU Bonds Maturing on 2/1/25: 

FINRA PAGE: Bonds Detail (prospectus linked) 

Issuer: Select Income REIT (SIR) 

Select Income REIT Announces First Quarter 2018 Results 

Credit Ratings: 

Bought at a Total Cost of 97.694 (includes $4 Vanguard brokerage commission)

YTM at TC Then at 4.906%

Current Yield at TC = 4.6062%

I previously sold this bond at 102: Item # 3.A. (9/11/17 Post) 

I also own 2 Select Income 4.25% SU bonds maturing in 2024 and the common shares. 

Last Discussions on SIR Common Share Buys: 

Item # 1.D. Bought 10 SIR at $18.96 and 5 at $18.61 (3/8/18 Post) 

Item 1.B. (1/21/18 Post)

B. Bought 2 Kroger 3.5% SU Bonds Maturing on 2/1/26:

FINRA: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)

Prospectus

Issuer: Kroger Co. (KR)
KR Analyst Estimates

Kroger Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results

2017 Annual Report (debt discussed starting at page 60)

KR SEC Filings

Last Bond Offering: July 2017

Prospectus

Credit Ratings:

Bought at a Total Cost of 94.571
YTM at TC Then at 4.335%
Current Yield at 3.7%

C. Bought 1 Martin Marietta Materials 3.45% SU Bond Maturing on 6/1/27:

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Issuer:  Martin Marietta Materials Inc. (MLM)
MLM Analyst Estimates
Martin Marietta Reports First Quarter 2018 Results NYSE:MLM

2017 Annual Report
MLM SEC FILINGS

Last Bond Offering-December 2017:

Prospectus

I did not buy the 2027 bond referenced in the previous snapshot. That bond matures in December 2027 and was sold at 99.75. Bond Detail I bought the 3.45% MLM bond maturing about 6 months earlier that was sold in a May 2017 offering. The offering price was 99.798. So over about a year in time, the bond has declined about 7% to my 92.79 purchase price. I would not attribute any of that decline to an increase in credit risk. It is about interest rate risk only.

Credit Ratings:

Bought at a Total Cost of 92.79
YTM at TC Then at 4.433%
Current Yield at TC = 3.7181%

My last intermediate bond purchase was on 5/31. I have stayed further purchases until the ten year treasury moves about its 2018 high yield. 2018 Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates (3.11% on 5/17/18)

4. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:

A. Bought 2 Citizens Bank 1.8% CDs Maturing on 8/30/18 (3 month CDs):

Holding Company: Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG)

B. Bought 1 Seattle Bank 1.75% CD Maturing on 7/30/18:

Seattle Bank Reviews and Ratings - Bankrate.com

C. Bought 2 Roper Technologies 3% SU Bond Maturing on 12/15/20:

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked) 

Issuer: Roper Technologies Inc. (ROP)
ROP Analyst Estimates

Roper Technologies Announces Record First Quarter Results 

Roper Technologies to Acquire PowerPlan, Leading Provider of Software and Solutions for Financial and Compliance Management (5/21/18) ("a definitive agreement to acquire PowerPlan in an all-cash transaction valued at $1.1 billion. PowerPlan is a leading provider of software and solutions for asset-centric companies, enabling its customers to optimize their financial performance and achieve regulatory compliance.")

2017 Annual Report (long term listed and discussed starting at page 48)

Last Bond Offering-December 2016:

Prospectus

Credit Ratings: 

S & P upgraded Roper to BBB+ from BBB last February. The report is available to Fidelity customers.

Bought at a Total Cost of 99.437
YTM at TC Then at 3.231%
Current Yield at TC =  3.017%

D. Bought 1 Treasury 1.5% Coupon Maturing on 12/31/18:
YTM at 2.05+%

I now own 6 bonds.

E. Bought 2 Bank of India 1.7% CDs Maturing on 7/11/18 (1 Month CD): 

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.