Economy:
Third-quarter GDP cools a bit to a still-solid 3.5% rate - MarketWatch; US Q3 gross domestic product This was the government's first estimate of third quarter growth. The second quarter growth in real GDP was at 4.2%.
U.S. - Real GDP growth by year 1990-2017 | Statista
The consensus opinion is that real GDP growth will slow from its 2018 second peak.
While the tax cuts have resulted in an increase in GDP, publicly traded companies have used most of the savings to buyback stock and increase dividends which has primarily benefited those who will not spend the increases in wealth. The revised tax law also provides for accelerated depreciation that simply moves corporate spending from future years into the present. New rules and limitations for depreciation and expensing under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act | Internal Revenue Service
Overall, the benefit to those in the bottom 80%, particularly those in the first three quintiles, have been non-existent or so immaterial that the benefits have been offset by cost increases in purchased goods and services, including those specifically linked to the GOP's tariffs, and by a steady rise in interest rates. The end result is that the driving force of the U.S. economy-consumer spending-received at best a minor push that will putter out. Majority Of Americans Say Their Finances Haven't Improved Since 2016 Election | Bankrate.com
The economy is currently receiving a benefit as well from consumers borrowing and spending more: Consumer Debt Statistics; The Fed- Consumer Credit - G.19; Total Household Debt Rises for 16th Straight Quarter-FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK Debt fueled expansions do have some longevity, as proven by the Age of Consumer Leverage that started in the mid-1980s and ended in 2008, but will end badly.
Sales of newly constructed homes in September fell 5.8% below the downwardly revised August number and were 13.2% below the September 2017 number. New Home Sales.pdf
Fed’s Beige Book says wages, prices growing at ‘modest to moderate’ rates - MarketWatch
Fed's new Vice Chair Clarida backs rate hikes in first major speech
Fed says the new NAFTA isn't going to help US dairy farmers
This Chart Explains How Badly Trump's Trade War Is Hurting Soybean Farmers;
Midterm elections: President Donald Trump to tout his help for farmers
More than one-third of S&P 500 reporting earnings are talking tariffs And what will happen when the GOP increases the tariff to 25% from 10% on China's exports starting on 1/1/19. That really was not a question.
European aluminum producers not hurt by Trump’s tariffs, pass costs to U.S. customers - MarketWatch
Fed’s Beige Book says wages, prices growing at ‘modest to moderate’ rates - MarketWatch
Fed's new Vice Chair Clarida backs rate hikes in first major speech
Fed says the new NAFTA isn't going to help US dairy farmers
This Chart Explains How Badly Trump's Trade War Is Hurting Soybean Farmers;
Midterm elections: President Donald Trump to tout his help for farmers
More than one-third of S&P 500 reporting earnings are talking tariffs And what will happen when the GOP increases the tariff to 25% from 10% on China's exports starting on 1/1/19. That really was not a question.
European aluminum producers not hurt by Trump’s tariffs, pass costs to U.S. customers - MarketWatch
+++++++
Markets and Market Commentary:
The global selloff has erased $5 trillion from stock and bond markets in October - MarketWatch
A trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon you are talking real money.
October will soon be over. One benefit of a market slide is that it allows me to increase the weighted average yield of my portfolio which is already receiving a lift from rising short term rates.
Since I am already in my bunker waiting for more incoming, I would be fine with a 50% stock market decline. Bonds and cash are also providing a ballast in my brokerage accounts.
Closing Prices Last Friday:
IEF $101.14 +$0.45 +0.45%:iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
TLT $114.99 +$0.69 +0.60%: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
LQD $112.93 +$0.19 +0.17%: iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bonds ETF
I do not own those bond ETFs. My largest allocation is in individual investment grade corporate bonds, high quality Tennessee Municipal Bonds, and treasuries. I can hold all of those bonds until their respective maturity dates.
My feel is that the maximum downside from SPX's recent high is about 20% to 25%, but that will not occur until next year and would require a number of adverse events actually occurring.
That percentage decline would probably take an all out trade war with China, a substantial slowdown in U.S. GDP growth, rising unemployment, rising interest rates and inflation, continued downward pressure on profit margins Y-O-Y, and Y-O-Y profit and revenue declines from several large companies. I view many of those conditions to be in the more probable than not column. Note the use of the word "probable" rather than "certain"
The global selloff has erased $5 trillion from stock and bond markets in October - MarketWatch
A trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon you are talking real money.
October will soon be over. One benefit of a market slide is that it allows me to increase the weighted average yield of my portfolio which is already receiving a lift from rising short term rates.
Since I am already in my bunker waiting for more incoming, I would be fine with a 50% stock market decline. Bonds and cash are also providing a ballast in my brokerage accounts.
Closing Prices Last Friday:
IEF $101.14 +$0.45 +0.45%:iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
TLT $114.99 +$0.69 +0.60%: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
LQD $112.93 +$0.19 +0.17%: iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bonds ETF
I do not own those bond ETFs. My largest allocation is in individual investment grade corporate bonds, high quality Tennessee Municipal Bonds, and treasuries. I can hold all of those bonds until their respective maturity dates.
My feel is that the maximum downside from SPX's recent high is about 20% to 25%, but that will not occur until next year and would require a number of adverse events actually occurring.
That percentage decline would probably take an all out trade war with China, a substantial slowdown in U.S. GDP growth, rising unemployment, rising interest rates and inflation, continued downward pressure on profit margins Y-O-Y, and Y-O-Y profit and revenue declines from several large companies. I view many of those conditions to be in the more probable than not column. Note the use of the word "probable" rather than "certain"
I thought that Dr. Doom had passed away. You have to be of certain age to remember Henry Kaufman who could roil markets with his missives. Well, he is back and making sense to the Old Geezer: Dr. Doom’s Latest Warning Should Not Go Unheeded - Barron's (subscription publication)
I would agree with his comments that efforts to stabilize the financial system following the Near Depression has created more serious risks longer term due to the vast increase in debt and its ownership in too big to fail institutions.
As the quantity of debt has exploded in recent years, the credit quality has gone down.
The FED, moreover, has encouraged leverage by in effect shrinking the yield spread between junk bonds and higher quality bonds.
There is also a problem related to corporations borrowing heavily to buy back stock. In short, a debt bomb has already been created, and is becoming more powerful by the day. The question now is when will the fuse be lit.
The problem with that kind of dire forecast is that it can be way off as to timing, measured in years, but not on the factors that cause the next debt explosion or the more serious financial consequences likely to follow compared to the Near Depression.
I would agree with his comments that efforts to stabilize the financial system following the Near Depression has created more serious risks longer term due to the vast increase in debt and its ownership in too big to fail institutions.
As the quantity of debt has exploded in recent years, the credit quality has gone down.
The FED, moreover, has encouraged leverage by in effect shrinking the yield spread between junk bonds and higher quality bonds.
There is also a problem related to corporations borrowing heavily to buy back stock. In short, a debt bomb has already been created, and is becoming more powerful by the day. The question now is when will the fuse be lit.
The problem with that kind of dire forecast is that it can be way off as to timing, measured in years, but not on the factors that cause the next debt explosion or the more serious financial consequences likely to follow compared to the Near Depression.
U.S. economic growth could send the 10-year yield as high as 4.5%
Investors weigh whether to ditch stocks for bonds as yields finally offer an alternative-MarketWatch The answer depends in part on financial objectives, situational risks and risk tolerances. For most households a two year treasury note kind of return is not going to cut it.
Jeremy Siegel urges caution: Challenges will keep stock prices flat
The Trump bump in stocks is weakening
Watch out for ‘dead cat bounce’ in stocks because there’s more pain ahead: Morgan Stanley’s Wilson - MarketWatch
China’s stock selloff could wreak a lot more havoc before it’s over: Merrill Lynch - MarketWatch
Market pro says US-China trade war is what worries him the most in this sell-off
How the U.S. and China misread the signals in the trade war - The Washington Post (China and the U.S. are nowhere close to a resolution, and China regards Trump as undermining the negotiations and acting in bad faith)
U.S. won't talk to China on trade until it gets specific plan to halt tech theft (even if there was a specific plan, theft of technology would continue on a wide scale)
Italy is ‘the No. 1 risk factor in the fourth quarter’ for European investments - MarketWatch
Texas Instruments (TXN), STMicro (STM) Confirm What Investors Have Already Been Pricing In - TheStreet
Big drops for AMD and Nvidia fuel ‘death cross’ for chip sector ahead of earnings - MarketWatch
Iron Mountain (IRM) Tops Q3 FFO and Revenue Estimates - October 25, 2018-Zacks.com; Iron Mountain Reports Third-Quarter 2018 Results The company increased its quarterly dividend by 4% to 61.1 cents.
Intel earnings Q3 2018
++++++
Investors weigh whether to ditch stocks for bonds as yields finally offer an alternative-MarketWatch The answer depends in part on financial objectives, situational risks and risk tolerances. For most households a two year treasury note kind of return is not going to cut it.
Jeremy Siegel urges caution: Challenges will keep stock prices flat
The Trump bump in stocks is weakening
Watch out for ‘dead cat bounce’ in stocks because there’s more pain ahead: Morgan Stanley’s Wilson - MarketWatch
China’s stock selloff could wreak a lot more havoc before it’s over: Merrill Lynch - MarketWatch
Market pro says US-China trade war is what worries him the most in this sell-off
How the U.S. and China misread the signals in the trade war - The Washington Post (China and the U.S. are nowhere close to a resolution, and China regards Trump as undermining the negotiations and acting in bad faith)
U.S. won't talk to China on trade until it gets specific plan to halt tech theft (even if there was a specific plan, theft of technology would continue on a wide scale)
Italy is ‘the No. 1 risk factor in the fourth quarter’ for European investments - MarketWatch
Texas Instruments (TXN), STMicro (STM) Confirm What Investors Have Already Been Pricing In - TheStreet
Big drops for AMD and Nvidia fuel ‘death cross’ for chip sector ahead of earnings - MarketWatch
Iron Mountain (IRM) Tops Q3 FFO and Revenue Estimates - October 25, 2018-Zacks.com; Iron Mountain Reports Third-Quarter 2018 Results The company increased its quarterly dividend by 4% to 61.1 cents.
Intel earnings Q3 2018
++++++
Trump:
Donald Trump wrong that opioid bill didn't get much Democratic backing | PolitiFact (rated "Pants on Fire")
Donald said the new opioid legislation signed into law last Wednesday had "very little" support from the Democrats.
The legislation passed 98 to 1 in the Senate and 396-14 in the House. The only no vote in the Senate was the republican senator from Utah Mike Lee. In the House, 13 of the 14 no votes were republican. Final Vote Results for Roll Call 288
Before Donald was elected, it was impossible to even contemplate a President lying in such a brazen manner over and over and over again.
FACT CHECK: Did Donald Trump Encourage Violence at His Rallies? True; Trump on suspicious packages: 'Threats or acts of political violence have no place' in US - CNN
++
Donald and the "Bomb Stuff":
Donald is upset that all of this Bomb stuff was taking away the GOP's momentum going into the midterm elections. Note that he puts the word "Bomb" in quotes, indicating that the bombs were not to be taken seriously:
Trump points finger at opponents, media on day when bombs sent to Democrats and CNN
According to Don the Con, the press is to blame for creating an atmosphere of hate against Democrats and other Trump critics. Come again. I am going to assume that this line was intended for the brain dead since conception crowd.
Consequently the media--not Donald--is to blame for the bombs sent to Democrats and other critics regularly lambasted by Trump in his harsh demagoguery. And what would Donald say when the media quits covering his insults?
Pro-Trump Pundits Claim Without Evidence That Mailed Explosives Are 'False Flag'
Fox Business Network host Lou Dobbs peddles conspiracy theory about suspicious packages - CNN
Cesar Sayoc, a a fervent Trump supporter, was arrested for sending the bombs. His van was plastered with pro-Trump stickers (including pictures of Trump), the slogan "CNN Sucks" and Democrat figures with red crosshairs over their faces. Fingerprint, DNA lead to Florida man's arrest in bombs sent to Trump critics
Cesar Sayoc was ‘someone lost’ — but then he ‘found a father in Trump,’ family attorney tells CNN - The Washington Post
‘He felt that somebody was finally talking to him’: How the package-bomb suspect found inspiration in Trump - The Washington Post
On the day of Sayoc's arrest, the Trumpsters were heard chanting "CNN Sucks" and "Lock Him Up", referring to Soros, after Trump complained about the "Fake News" media. Crowd chants 'fake news,' 'CNN sucks-TheHill The Trumpster chants were repeated at Donald's NC campaign rally later in the day. Demagogue Don basked in the True Believer's chants.
Trump supporters respond to news of package bombs (one said it was probably the Clintons and Obama who paid Sayoc to send the bombs to them; another said there was no proof that Sayoc was a Trump supporter notwithstanding the abundant and over flowing proof that it was); Pipe bomb suspect Cesar Sayoc is a registered Republican and a Trump fan; Video shows suspect Cesar Sayoc at Trump rally-YouTube (Sayoc holding a "CNN Sucks" sign at a Trumpster rally)
When asked by a reporter whether he should tone down his rhetoric, Demagogue Don replied "I could really tone it up". Trump recast himself as the real victim of Sayoc's attempted assassinations of the Duck's critics: ‘I could really tone it up’: Trump shows little interest in uniting the nation during crises - The Washington Post
A reporter asked Trump whether the bomber was a supporter. Trump replied: “I did not see my face on the van." His face was plastered all over the van:
Donald's Response to Mass Murder at Jewish Synagogue:
Donald responded to the multiple murders yesterday at a Jewish synagogue as follows: "If there was an armed guard inside the temple, they would have been able to stop him, maybe there would have been nobody killed, except for him, frankly." CBS News
The alleged assailant was identified as Robert Bowers who reportedly shouted "All Jews Must Die" as he opened fire on those attending a worship service. He was a frequent user of a website associated with White Supremacists. Trump says Illinois rally to go as planned after synagogue shooting Bowers was armed with an AR-15 type assault rifle and two guns, among the 21 registered guns that he owned.
++
Donald Trump wrong that opioid bill didn't get much Democratic backing | PolitiFact (rated "Pants on Fire")
Donald said the new opioid legislation signed into law last Wednesday had "very little" support from the Democrats.
The legislation passed 98 to 1 in the Senate and 396-14 in the House. The only no vote in the Senate was the republican senator from Utah Mike Lee. In the House, 13 of the 14 no votes were republican. Final Vote Results for Roll Call 288
Before Donald was elected, it was impossible to even contemplate a President lying in such a brazen manner over and over and over again.
FACT CHECK: Did Donald Trump Encourage Violence at His Rallies? True; Trump on suspicious packages: 'Threats or acts of political violence have no place' in US - CNN
++
Donald and the "Bomb Stuff":
Donald is upset that all of this Bomb stuff was taking away the GOP's momentum going into the midterm elections. Note that he puts the word "Bomb" in quotes, indicating that the bombs were not to be taken seriously:
Consequently the media--not Donald--is to blame for the bombs sent to Democrats and other critics regularly lambasted by Trump in his harsh demagoguery. And what would Donald say when the media quits covering his insults?
Teflon Don will blame others for what he does.
He lies and accuses those who are telling the truth as liars.
This particular undesirable personality trait is called gaslighting or psychological projection. Why Gaslighters Accuse You of Gaslighting | Psychology Today
It is just another one of Trump's major personality disorders. I do not consider this particular mental illness to be Donald's most serious.
He lies and accuses those who are telling the truth as liars.
This particular undesirable personality trait is called gaslighting or psychological projection. Why Gaslighters Accuse You of Gaslighting | Psychology Today
It is just another one of Trump's major personality disorders. I do not consider this particular mental illness to be Donald's most serious.
Pro-Trump Pundits Claim Without Evidence That Mailed Explosives Are 'False Flag'
Fox Business Network host Lou Dobbs peddles conspiracy theory about suspicious packages - CNN
Cesar Sayoc, a a fervent Trump supporter, was arrested for sending the bombs. His van was plastered with pro-Trump stickers (including pictures of Trump), the slogan "CNN Sucks" and Democrat figures with red crosshairs over their faces. Fingerprint, DNA lead to Florida man's arrest in bombs sent to Trump critics
Cesar Sayoc was ‘someone lost’ — but then he ‘found a father in Trump,’ family attorney tells CNN - The Washington Post
‘He felt that somebody was finally talking to him’: How the package-bomb suspect found inspiration in Trump - The Washington Post
On the day of Sayoc's arrest, the Trumpsters were heard chanting "CNN Sucks" and "Lock Him Up", referring to Soros, after Trump complained about the "Fake News" media. Crowd chants 'fake news,' 'CNN sucks-TheHill The Trumpster chants were repeated at Donald's NC campaign rally later in the day. Demagogue Don basked in the True Believer's chants.
Trump supporters respond to news of package bombs (one said it was probably the Clintons and Obama who paid Sayoc to send the bombs to them; another said there was no proof that Sayoc was a Trump supporter notwithstanding the abundant and over flowing proof that it was); Pipe bomb suspect Cesar Sayoc is a registered Republican and a Trump fan; Video shows suspect Cesar Sayoc at Trump rally-YouTube (Sayoc holding a "CNN Sucks" sign at a Trumpster rally)
When asked by a reporter whether he should tone down his rhetoric, Demagogue Don replied "I could really tone it up". Trump recast himself as the real victim of Sayoc's attempted assassinations of the Duck's critics: ‘I could really tone it up’: Trump shows little interest in uniting the nation during crises - The Washington Post
A reporter asked Trump whether the bomber was a supporter. Trump replied: “I did not see my face on the van." His face was plastered all over the van:
Donald's Response to Mass Murder at Jewish Synagogue:
Donald responded to the multiple murders yesterday at a Jewish synagogue as follows: "If there was an armed guard inside the temple, they would have been able to stop him, maybe there would have been nobody killed, except for him, frankly." CBS News
The alleged assailant was identified as Robert Bowers who reportedly shouted "All Jews Must Die" as he opened fire on those attending a worship service. He was a frequent user of a website associated with White Supremacists. Trump says Illinois rally to go as planned after synagogue shooting Bowers was armed with an AR-15 type assault rifle and two guns, among the 21 registered guns that he owned.
++
USDA’s enforcement of animal welfare laws plummeted in 2018, agency figures show - The Washington Post
One of the biggest whoppers told by Lying Don recently was a claim that he had a 100 photographs of Comey and Mueller kissing. 100 Photos Of James Comey And Robert Mueller ‘Hugging And Kissing’? An enterprising reporter filed a Freedom of Information Act request and the government was unable to produce one. FBI unable to find photos of Comey, Mueller 'hugging and kissing' as Trump claimed | TheHill
++
Demagogue Don:
Trump is setting the tone for the entire republican party top to bottom. There is no real daylight between Trump and any republican running for Congress or the Senate. Trump is the GOP.
Trump doubles down on dubious immigration claims ahead of midterms - CBS News ("There's no proof of anything. There's no proof of anything. But there could very well be.") Donald creates his own reality. It is rare for him to acknowledge that he just made something up.
Trump claims the caravan moving slowly through Mexico is a National Emergency of epic proportions. The caravan is currently in southern Mexico: This map shows how far the migrant caravan is from the U.S. border - MarketWatch
In the last caravan, only three of the migrants have been granted asylum so far, CBS News, but Donald views that number to be a national emergency and the entire issue as so critical to national security that he will use the U.S. military to turn back those seeking asylum. Migrant caravan: Trump considers restricting asylum at US border This is a lesson on how the Demagogue Party manufactures a crisis for political reasons.
While the Homeland Security chief had nothing much to say about the bombs sent to prominent Democrats including two past Presidents, she did reassure the Liptards that the military will not open fire on the caravan as it peacefully approached the U.S. border. Kirstjen Nielsen: Military has 'no intention' of shooting at caravan - CNN
The airwaves are now inundated with republican campaign videos that demagogue this issue.
An example is this one in support of Jim Hagedorn (R), the GOP's candidate for Minnesota's first congressional district.
(MN-01) Caravan - YouTube
One of Hagedorn's more noteworthy claims to fame was his reference to Senators Maria Cantwell and Patty Murray as "undeserving bimbos in tennis shoes." Wayback Machine He also suggested that the nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court was an effort to "fill the bra of Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor". House Candidate Called Female Senators “Undeserving Bimbos in Tennis Shoes”
Hagedorn is also known for this remark that provides a clear window into his soul: “Good news from Hawaii, Pasty Mink is still dead. Bad news from Hawaii, some other communist will win her congressional seat.” GOP Chief Shocked to Discover His Candidate Jim Hagedorn’s Crazy Remarks Yes Hagedorn is a Trumpster.
Trump has campaigned for Hagedorn. President Trump Campaigns in Rochester for Jim Hagedorn-KEYC.com
The shooter who committed mass murder at the Pittsburgh synagogue thought that Jews were providing transportation for the caravan and he was upset that this synagogue was providing assistance to refugees.
The Democrat, tarred and feathered in that disgusting video, is Dan Feehan. Southern Minnesota has the opportunity to send thoughtful, well-spoken leader to Congress: Dan Feehan - StarTribune.com Feehan served two tours in Iraq and also served as a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. Sounds like the guy depicted in the preceding GOP commercial which is so typical?
+++
Kroger shooting: Man who killed 2 tried to enter a predominantly black church minutes earlier - CNN After being unable to enter the black church, he shot and killed two randomly selected African Americans in the Kroger parking lot.
+++
Ryan Zinke:
The Interior Secretary, Ryan Zinke, has similar ethics problems that resulted in the canning of cabinet secretaries Scott Pruitt and Tom Price.
There are several active investigations of Zinke by Interior's Inspector General. A Guide to the 14 Federal Investigations into Ryan Zinke - CREW
A few days ago, there was an effort to replace the IG pursuing the Zinke investigations with a political appointee who worked in Trump's campaign.
After that plan was exposed in the "Fake News Media", it was abandoned for now. HUD appointee abruptly moved to lead Interior Dept.’s watchdog unit amid Zinke probe - The Washington Post
++
Lee Zeldin (R-NY):
Zeldin mailer uses wrong deadline for absentee ballots | Newsday (10/22/18 publication date) Zeldin targeted likely Democrat voters, providing them a date that was too late for their vote to count.
He did exactly the same thing in 2016: Lee Zeldin mailer gives wrong deadline for absentee ballots | Newsday (10/18/16 publication date)
Zeldin claims he made the same mistake in 2016 and 2018 accidentally.
++
Josh Hawley:
The facts contained in the following linked article demonstrate that Josh Hawley (R), who is running for the Senate, has demonstrated both his incompetence and his ideological zealotry as Missouri's Attorney General. Josh Hawley, Missouri Senate Candidate, Oversees an Office in Turmoil - The New York Times
+++++++
The Donald and the Trumpsters are the primary source of Fake News: Wife of Supreme Court justice spreads fake news about the migrant caravan - MarketWatch; Debunking 5 Viral Images of the Migrant Caravan; How #fakenews about migrant caravan and terrorism fools so many people - MarketWatch
“Blatant voter suppression”? Conservative group’s mailer touches off furor in Washington’s 19th District | The Seattle Times It is a typical republican dirty tricks campaign.
This is laughable: Donald Trump calls for more civility in politics following suspect packages - BBC News Donald is after all the most uncivil and uncouth politician in modern American history. The Trumpsters love him for being that way.
John Brennan had a comeback: Mail bomb target John Brennan slams Trump on Twitter after president lashes out at media
The Dirty Trickster | The New Yorker (2008 article about Roger Stone)
Nevada Republican's family blasts his campaign: 'It's all fake'
One of the biggest whoppers told by Lying Don recently was a claim that he had a 100 photographs of Comey and Mueller kissing. 100 Photos Of James Comey And Robert Mueller ‘Hugging And Kissing’? An enterprising reporter filed a Freedom of Information Act request and the government was unable to produce one. FBI unable to find photos of Comey, Mueller 'hugging and kissing' as Trump claimed | TheHill
Demagogue Don:
Trump is setting the tone for the entire republican party top to bottom. There is no real daylight between Trump and any republican running for Congress or the Senate. Trump is the GOP.
Trump doubles down on dubious immigration claims ahead of midterms - CBS News ("There's no proof of anything. There's no proof of anything. But there could very well be.") Donald creates his own reality. It is rare for him to acknowledge that he just made something up.
Trump claims the caravan moving slowly through Mexico is a National Emergency of epic proportions. The caravan is currently in southern Mexico: This map shows how far the migrant caravan is from the U.S. border - MarketWatch
In the last caravan, only three of the migrants have been granted asylum so far, CBS News, but Donald views that number to be a national emergency and the entire issue as so critical to national security that he will use the U.S. military to turn back those seeking asylum. Migrant caravan: Trump considers restricting asylum at US border This is a lesson on how the Demagogue Party manufactures a crisis for political reasons.
While the Homeland Security chief had nothing much to say about the bombs sent to prominent Democrats including two past Presidents, she did reassure the Liptards that the military will not open fire on the caravan as it peacefully approached the U.S. border. Kirstjen Nielsen: Military has 'no intention' of shooting at caravan - CNN
The airwaves are now inundated with republican campaign videos that demagogue this issue.
An example is this one in support of Jim Hagedorn (R), the GOP's candidate for Minnesota's first congressional district.
(MN-01) Caravan - YouTube
One of Hagedorn's more noteworthy claims to fame was his reference to Senators Maria Cantwell and Patty Murray as "undeserving bimbos in tennis shoes." Wayback Machine He also suggested that the nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court was an effort to "fill the bra of Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor". House Candidate Called Female Senators “Undeserving Bimbos in Tennis Shoes”
Hagedorn is also known for this remark that provides a clear window into his soul: “Good news from Hawaii, Pasty Mink is still dead. Bad news from Hawaii, some other communist will win her congressional seat.” GOP Chief Shocked to Discover His Candidate Jim Hagedorn’s Crazy Remarks Yes Hagedorn is a Trumpster.
Trump has campaigned for Hagedorn. President Trump Campaigns in Rochester for Jim Hagedorn-KEYC.com
The shooter who committed mass murder at the Pittsburgh synagogue thought that Jews were providing transportation for the caravan and he was upset that this synagogue was providing assistance to refugees.
The Democrat, tarred and feathered in that disgusting video, is Dan Feehan. Southern Minnesota has the opportunity to send thoughtful, well-spoken leader to Congress: Dan Feehan - StarTribune.com Feehan served two tours in Iraq and also served as a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. Sounds like the guy depicted in the preceding GOP commercial which is so typical?
+++
Kroger shooting: Man who killed 2 tried to enter a predominantly black church minutes earlier - CNN After being unable to enter the black church, he shot and killed two randomly selected African Americans in the Kroger parking lot.
+++
Ryan Zinke:
The Interior Secretary, Ryan Zinke, has similar ethics problems that resulted in the canning of cabinet secretaries Scott Pruitt and Tom Price.
There are several active investigations of Zinke by Interior's Inspector General. A Guide to the 14 Federal Investigations into Ryan Zinke - CREW
A few days ago, there was an effort to replace the IG pursuing the Zinke investigations with a political appointee who worked in Trump's campaign.
After that plan was exposed in the "Fake News Media", it was abandoned for now. HUD appointee abruptly moved to lead Interior Dept.’s watchdog unit amid Zinke probe - The Washington Post
++
Lee Zeldin (R-NY):
Zeldin mailer uses wrong deadline for absentee ballots | Newsday (10/22/18 publication date) Zeldin targeted likely Democrat voters, providing them a date that was too late for their vote to count.
He did exactly the same thing in 2016: Lee Zeldin mailer gives wrong deadline for absentee ballots | Newsday (10/18/16 publication date)
Zeldin claims he made the same mistake in 2016 and 2018 accidentally.
++
Josh Hawley:
The facts contained in the following linked article demonstrate that Josh Hawley (R), who is running for the Senate, has demonstrated both his incompetence and his ideological zealotry as Missouri's Attorney General. Josh Hawley, Missouri Senate Candidate, Oversees an Office in Turmoil - The New York Times
+++++++
The Donald and the Trumpsters are the primary source of Fake News: Wife of Supreme Court justice spreads fake news about the migrant caravan - MarketWatch; Debunking 5 Viral Images of the Migrant Caravan; How #fakenews about migrant caravan and terrorism fools so many people - MarketWatch
“Blatant voter suppression”? Conservative group’s mailer touches off furor in Washington’s 19th District | The Seattle Times It is a typical republican dirty tricks campaign.
This is laughable: Donald Trump calls for more civility in politics following suspect packages - BBC News Donald is after all the most uncivil and uncouth politician in modern American history. The Trumpsters love him for being that way.
John Brennan had a comeback: Mail bomb target John Brennan slams Trump on Twitter after president lashes out at media
The Dirty Trickster | The New Yorker (2008 article about Roger Stone)
Nevada Republican's family blasts his campaign: 'It's all fake'
++++++
1. Starting Buying MCDFX Again:
Current Position: 22+ shares
Average Cost Per Share: $15.68
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share. The dollar purchase limit for one transaction is $100.
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must reduce my average cost per share. The dollar purchase limit for one transaction is $100.
MCDFX Matthews China Dividend Investor Fund-Morningstar (rated 5 stars at the time of purchases)
Sponsor's Website: Overview-Matthews China Dividend Fund (expense ratio 1.19%)
Top Ten Holdings as of 9/30/18:
Historical Dividends:
I will periodically buy shares in this fund and then liquidate it in one sell transaction.
I will generally wait to sell until there is a big up move which periodically happens.
I recognize that I do not know when so there will likely be a period where I am averaging down to reduce my average cost per share.
I will generally wait to sell until there is a big up move which periodically happens.
I recognize that I do not know when so there will likely be a period where I am averaging down to reduce my average cost per share.
My last liquidation occurred on 4/4/18: Item # 3 Eliminated MCDFX-Sold 111+ at $17.95 (4/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $315.95). The fund had a total return of 37.69% in 2007 and was up 2.27% through 4/4/18 YTD)
The prior elimination was after another price spurt in 2015:
 |
| 204+ Shares +$821.23 |
I will use Schwab to gradually build up a position since there is only a $1 minimum investment compared to Fidelity's initial $2,500 and $250 minimum adds. This mutual fund is a tightly controlled risk. I am not going to go hog wild and try to hit a home run. Instead, I am bunting or hitting line drives over an infielders head for singles
I am not comfortable investing in China's stock market now given the tariff war with the U.S.. I see no reason to accept the majority consensus that both sides will "come to their senses" and reach a new deal soon.
This fund has done better so far this year than the China index mutual funds and ETFs including the following:
YTD Total Returns Through 10/27/18
YTD Total Returns Through 10/27/18
iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) Total Returns = -20.72%
Barron's published an article about China's stock market in this week's edition: Bargain-hunting in China stocks-Barron's (subscription publication) The MSCI China Index is trading at a 9.4 forward P/E.
Barron's published an article about China's stock market in this week's edition: Bargain-hunting in China stocks-Barron's (subscription publication) The MSCI China Index is trading at a 9.4 forward P/E.
2. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
Most of my proceeds from maturing securities are being held in a sweep account or used to purchase short term treasury bills at auction or in the secondary market. I am increasingly using more proceeds to buy dividend paying stocks as the market moves down.
Most of my proceeds from maturing securities are being held in a sweep account or used to purchase short term treasury bills at auction or in the secondary market. I am increasingly using more proceeds to buy dividend paying stocks as the market moves down.
A. Bought Two 3 Month Treasury Bills at Auction Maturing on 1/24/19:
IR = 2.346%
Auction Results:
IR = 2.346%
B. Bought 1 GATX 2.6% SU Bond Maturing on 3/30/20:
I now own 3 bonds.
FINRA Page: Bonds Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: GATX Corp. (GATX)
Website: GATX
FINRA Page: Bonds Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: GATX Corp. (GATX)
Website: GATX
GATX Analyst Estimates
2017 Annual Report (debt listed starting at page 84)
GATX Corporation Reports 2018 Third-Quarter Results
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/18 ("Our effective tax rate was 26% for the nine months ended September 30, 2018, compared to 32% for the nine months ended September 30, 2017. The difference in the effective rates for the current year compared to the prior year is primarily attributable to the reduction in the U.S. corporation income tax rate from 35% to 21%, as part of the Tax Act", page 13)
Last Bond Issuance: 4.55% SU Bonds Maturing in 2028 (May 2018)
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.939
YTM at TC Then at 3.364%
Current Yield at TC = 2.6279%
Comparable Maturity Treasury YTMs at Time of Purchase:
1 Bond Purchase
YTM at 2.816%
Current Yield at 1.403%
C. Bought Two 1 Month and 24 Day T Bills at Auction Maturing on 12/18/18:
2017 Annual Report (debt listed starting at page 84)
GATX Corporation Reports 2018 Third-Quarter Results
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/18 ("Our effective tax rate was 26% for the nine months ended September 30, 2018, compared to 32% for the nine months ended September 30, 2017. The difference in the effective rates for the current year compared to the prior year is primarily attributable to the reduction in the U.S. corporation income tax rate from 35% to 21%, as part of the Tax Act", page 13)
Last Bond Issuance: 4.55% SU Bonds Maturing in 2028 (May 2018)
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.939
YTM at TC Then at 3.364%
Current Yield at TC = 2.6279%
Comparable Maturity Treasury YTMs at Time of Purchase:
1 Bond Purchase
YTM at 2.816%
Current Yield at 1.403%
IR = 2.218%
Auction:
3. REGIONAL BANK BASKET STRATEGY: Small Ball
A. Bought 25 TRST at $7.87 and 25 at $7.3-USED Commission Free Trades:
Quote: Trustco Bank Corp.
Closing Price Last Friday: TRST $7.36 -$0.04 -0.54%
TRST is a savings and loan that operates 148 offices through its subsidiary Trustco Bank in Albany, Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Orange, Putnam, Rensselaer, Rockland, Saratoga, Schenectady, Schoharie, Ulster, Warren, Washington and Westchester counties of New York; Hillborough, Lake, Orange, Polk, Sarasota, Seminole, and Volusia counties in Florida; Berkshire County, Massachusetts; Bennington County, Vermont; and Bergen County, New Jersey.
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 1.A. Bought 100 TRST at $8.55 and 25 at $8.26 (10/7/18 Post)
Current Position: 175 Shares
Average Cost Per Share: $8.23
Maximum Position: 300 shares
Highest Cost Lot in Current Chain: 100 shares at $8.55 (will be sold when and if the stock price moves into a $9 to $9.5 range)
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (currently buying in 25 share lots)
Dividends: The quarterly rate had been stuck at $.065625 per share since the 2009 third quarter. The dividend was reduced to that level from $.11 per share. Effective for the 2018 third quarter, the penny rate was raised to $0.068125 per share, or $0.2725 per share on an annualized basis. TrustCo Declares 3.8% Increase in Cash Dividend
Dividend Yield at TC = 3.31%
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes at below $9
Last Ex Dividend Date: 9/6/18 (before I started the current chain)
TRST Realized Gains to Date: $985.36
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.B. Sold 161+ TRST at $9.2+ (7/2/18 Post)
Last Earnings Report: 9/30/18
TrustCo Announces Third Quarter 2018 Net Income of $15.2 Million
Trustco reported "third quarter 2018 net income of $15.2 million compared to $12.6 million for the third quarter 2017, an increase of 20.7%. Third quarter 2018 results include the impact of a lower tax rate resulting from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act"
Coverage Ratio: 180%
Overall, I would classify this report as a good one. NIM is at least going in the right direction. The efficiency ratio is good. The NPL ratio is okay at this stage in the credit cycle at .62% of total loans. The coverage ratio (allowance for loan losses to NPLs) is comforting at 180%. Net charge offs was excellent at $67,000.
A. Bought 25 TRST at $7.87 and 25 at $7.3-USED Commission Free Trades:
Quote: Trustco Bank Corp.
Closing Price Last Friday: TRST $7.36 -$0.04 -0.54%
TRST is a savings and loan that operates 148 offices through its subsidiary Trustco Bank in Albany, Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Orange, Putnam, Rensselaer, Rockland, Saratoga, Schenectady, Schoharie, Ulster, Warren, Washington and Westchester counties of New York; Hillborough, Lake, Orange, Polk, Sarasota, Seminole, and Volusia counties in Florida; Berkshire County, Massachusetts; Bennington County, Vermont; and Bergen County, New Jersey.
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 1.A. Bought 100 TRST at $8.55 and 25 at $8.26 (10/7/18 Post)
Current Position: 175 Shares
Average Cost Per Share: $8.23
Maximum Position: 300 shares
Highest Cost Lot in Current Chain: 100 shares at $8.55 (will be sold when and if the stock price moves into a $9 to $9.5 range)
Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (currently buying in 25 share lots)
Dividends: The quarterly rate had been stuck at $.065625 per share since the 2009 third quarter. The dividend was reduced to that level from $.11 per share. Effective for the 2018 third quarter, the penny rate was raised to $0.068125 per share, or $0.2725 per share on an annualized basis. TrustCo Declares 3.8% Increase in Cash Dividend
Dividend Yield at TC = 3.31%
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes at below $9
Last Ex Dividend Date: 9/6/18 (before I started the current chain)
TRST Realized Gains to Date: $985.36
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.B. Sold 161+ TRST at $9.2+ (7/2/18 Post)
Last Earnings Report: 9/30/18
TrustCo Announces Third Quarter 2018 Net Income of $15.2 Million
Overall, I would classify this report as a good one. NIM is at least going in the right direction. The efficiency ratio is good. The NPL ratio is okay at this stage in the credit cycle at .62% of total loans. The coverage ratio (allowance for loan losses to NPLs) is comforting at 180%. Net charge offs was excellent at $67,000.
4. Small Ball-Commission Free ETF and Mutual Fund Purchases:
I have two broad index funds on my small ball purchase list. Shares in both ETFs can be purchased with no minimums, and both have zero expense ratios. I will be using cash flow to fund these purchases.
The focus is on setting the parameters for averaging down. If the stock market continues skyward into LaLa Land, I would have no regrets that I did not buy more now and would sell what I own into that parabola. I am not in a capital accumulation phase of life.
A. FZROX - Fidelity ZERO SM Total Market Index Fund | Fidelity Investments:
Maximum Position: $10K Out-of-Pocket
The general idea is to average down in small amounts:
Purchase Amount Restrictions:
$50 to $100 per transaction until there is a correction (10% to 20% SPX decline from recent high of 2,930.75);
increase the amounts during the course of a correction at $100+ to $200 per transaction (-10% to -20% decline);
increase the purchase amounts more after the onset of a bear market at $200+ to $300 per transaction (greater than 20% decline);
increase only in $1K increments after a catastrophic event which I generally describe as a 45+% decline in SPX over a relatively brief period of time (e.g. September 2008 through early March 2009) and consider raising the maximum out-of-pocket limit up to $50K.
I have two broad index funds on my small ball purchase list. Shares in both ETFs can be purchased with no minimums, and both have zero expense ratios. I will be using cash flow to fund these purchases.
The focus is on setting the parameters for averaging down. If the stock market continues skyward into LaLa Land, I would have no regrets that I did not buy more now and would sell what I own into that parabola. I am not in a capital accumulation phase of life.
A. FZROX - Fidelity ZERO SM Total Market Index Fund | Fidelity Investments:
Maximum Position: $10K Out-of-Pocket
The general idea is to average down in small amounts:
Purchase Amount Restrictions:
$50 to $100 per transaction until there is a correction (10% to 20% SPX decline from recent high of 2,930.75);
increase the amounts during the course of a correction at $100+ to $200 per transaction (-10% to -20% decline);
increase the purchase amounts more after the onset of a bear market at $200+ to $300 per transaction (greater than 20% decline);
increase only in $1K increments after a catastrophic event which I generally describe as a 45+% decline in SPX over a relatively brief period of time (e.g. September 2008 through early March 2009) and consider raising the maximum out-of-pocket limit up to $50K.
From Intraday S & P 500 High of 2,930.75 (9/20/18)
10% Decline = 2,637.68
Last Friday's close was at 2,658.69
20% Decline = 2,344.6
45% Decline = 1,904.99
10% Decline = 2,637.68
Last Friday's close was at 2,658.69
20% Decline = 2,344.6
45% Decline = 1,904.99
Current Outlay: $350
Average Cost Per Share = $9.8 per share
In this restricted and restrained purchase program, I do not have to buy only at the lowest price in the chain, but am restricted in the amounts of each purchase within the dollar ranges set out above and each purchase must lower my average cost per share.
A lot of what I do is very methodical and tightly constrained as part of my risk management strategies.
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 1.B. (9/23/18 Post)
Other Applicable Rules:
I will not sell any shares at a loss.
I will reinvest the dividends.
I will only sell my highest cost lots only when my total out-of-pocket investment exceeds $5K.
Average Cost Per Share = $9.8 per share
In this restricted and restrained purchase program, I do not have to buy only at the lowest price in the chain, but am restricted in the amounts of each purchase within the dollar ranges set out above and each purchase must lower my average cost per share.
A lot of what I do is very methodical and tightly constrained as part of my risk management strategies.
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 1.B. (9/23/18 Post)
Other Applicable Rules:
I will not sell any shares at a loss.
I will reinvest the dividends.
I will only sell my highest cost lots only when my total out-of-pocket investment exceeds $5K.
Maximum Position: $3K Out-of-Pocket
Current Outlay: $300
Average Cost Per Share: $9.34
I will key purchases off percentage declines in the ETF VEU: VEU Fund- Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF Overview
Closing VEU High at $58.55 (1/24/18)
10% Correction: $52.7 (currently in correction territory): $50-$100
Close Last Friday: VEU $47.00 -$0.39 -0.82%
20% Bear Market: $46.84: $150-$300
45% Catastrophic Event: $38.06 $500 (consider raising maximum limit up to $10K)
Last Substantive Discussion: Item 1.A. (9/23/18 Post)
C. Added to PRPFX at $39.24 (just $50):
Permanent Portfolio Overview
Sponsor's Page: The Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds
There is no rule constraining purchases in this fund. I just add small amounts from time to time as the spirit moves me.
I have referred to this mutual fund as a hedge against disaster, an opinion based on its relatively constant portfolio allocations to gold and silver bullion, treasuries, high quality corporate bonds, Swiss government bonds, and equity REITs and natural resource stocks. There is also an allocation to what the sponsor calls "aggressive growth" which IMO is primarily oriented to value stocks.
Several of the asset classes have been in bear markets, notably gold and silver bullion.
Snapshot of Gold, Silver and Swiss Franc Allocations as of 7/31/18:
SEC Filed Semi-Annual Report
Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 2.B. (12/21/17 Post)
Trading Profits to Date: $898.7
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| Fidelity Taxable 251+ Shares +$590.26 |
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| Vanguard Taxable: +$308.44 |
Prior profits from selling shares have been constrained by unusually large capital gain distributions in 2013, 2014 and 2015:
My current position is held in my Schwab account where I can add in minuscule amounts. I am reinvesting the dividend, paid annually, and currently own 167+ shares.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
IBM has agreed to acquire Red Hat in an all cash deal at $190 per share.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ibm-to-acquire-red-hat-completely-changing-the-cloud-landscape-and-becoming-worlds-1-hybrid-cloud-provider-300739142.html
To help for the deal, IBM will suspend its stock purchase program in 2020 and 2021.
I will be interested to see how the Stock Jocks react.
I have an ongoing "small ball buying program" in IBM shares with a maximum position at 20 shares and a current position at 10 shares. My last buy, using a commission free trade, was 1 share at $126.08.
Today was shaping up as an ominous one for the Stock Jocks, with the early morning gains in SPX evaporating and then turning down with gusto.
ReplyDeleteWhile that is a negative, a positive is that a rally was mounted into the close that kept SPX out of correction territory, but just by around 4 points and that was really close. I was not inspired by the late day rally off the session lows into the close.
The technicals look awful with the 200 day SMA sitting at 2766, using a one year chart, versus today's close tat 2,641+.
S&P 500 Index
DAY RANGE 2,603.54 - 2,706.85
The wild swings are not going to bring comfort especially when the Stock Jocks just keep receiving the coup de grâce after mounting a rally of sorts.
Technology stocks are particularly weak. Part of that has to do with their robust performance earlier in the year. The threat of an all out trade war with China creates potential problems as do new efforts to raise tax revenue from their operations in the U.K. and possibly in Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-budget-digital-tax/britain-to-target-online-giants-with-new-digital-services-tax-idUSKCN1N3265?il=0
Some of the weakest sectors this month bucked the downtrend:
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
$52.96 +$1.04 +2.00%
Vanguard Real Estate ETF
$78.18 +$0.98 +1.27%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vnq
VanEck Vectors BDC Income ETF
$15.58 +$ 0.06 +0.39%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/bizd
Consumer staples and the utility sector posted gains as well.
Fidelity MSCI Utilities Index ETF
$35.54 +$0.42 +1.20%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/futy
Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF
$32.89 +$0.41 +1.26%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fsta
Most of my individual stock positions were up.
CBOE Volatility Index 24.70 +0.54 +2.24%
DAY RANGE 22.01 - 27.86
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix
The peak was hit around 2:45 P.M CST.
Only 32.53% of S & P 500 components are now above their 200 day moving average lines.
ReplyDeleteOn the NYSE, there were 18 new highs and 401 new lows. Three of the new highs were exchange traded bonds
http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-newhinyse-newhighs.html?mod=topnav_2_3022
I added to the Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund which is discussed in this post. Dollar amounts are very small.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fzrox
The key catalyst for today's wild swings was a Bloomberg report that Donald would levy tariffs on the remaining imports from China if his meeting with China's President next month fails to reach an agreement:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-29/u-s-said-to-plan-more-china-tariffs-if-trump-xi-meeting-fails?srnd=premium
The tariffs on those additional imports would take effect sometime in February after a 60 day public comment period.
The tariffs on about $250 in China exports will increase from the current 10% to 25% on 1/1/19.
Suez, one of my losers, reported its best profit growth in seven years for the 2018 third quarter. I own the ADR SZEVY:
ReplyDeleteSuez S.A. ADR $7.32 +0.341 +4.89%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/szevy
https://www.reuters.com/article/suez-results/update-1-utility-suez-sees-best-quarter-in-seven-years-despite-china-paper-impact-idUSL8N1XA1KQ
https://www.suez.com/en/News/Press-Releases/SUEZ-results-at-September-30-2018
I own 200 shares.
++
Manulife (MFC) is rising today after receiving an order from the Government of Saskatchewan that will "limit the amount of premiums a life insurer may receive or accept for deposit in life insurance policies and associated side accounts."
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manulife-addresses-expected-impact-of-new-saskatchewan-regulations-on-mosten-litigation-300740260.html
This is relevant to litigation brought by a hedge fund that bought an old policy and claimed it could deposit unlimited sums and receive a guaranteed rate of 4% as I recall. A short seller wrote an article about this litigation and MFC tanked in response. I discussed this issue then, noting that I would suspend my small ball purchases until I had clarity on the issue. I also expressed dissatisfaction with MFC in failing to disclose this litigation. I had actually looked before buying at the litigation discussion in the annual report.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-manulife-financi-lawsuit/manulife-faces-backlash-from-investors-over-failure-to-disclose-court-case-idUSKCN1MM2NR
Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC)
$15.780 +$0.640 (+4.23%)
As of 1:16PM EDT
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MFC/press-releases?p=MFC
This is only one province. I suspect that the same kind of order will have to be issued by other governmental entities to provide MFC with protection. MFC acknowledges as much:
"Because the public policy concern addressed in Saskatchewan is equally relevant across Canada, the Canadian Life and Health Insurance Association, which intervened in the litigation on behalf of the industry, plans to request other provincial and territorial governments to take comparable regulatory steps to avoid unnecessary, costly litigation in other jurisdictions"
I currently own 40+ shares.
The Stock Jocks actually believed Donald when he said earlier today that he expects a "great trade deal" with China. The clear suggestion is that one is in the works and only needs a few deals ironed out with China's President when they meet briefly at the G-20 summit on 11/30 in Brazil.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/30/trump-says-he-expects-great-deal-with-china-but-more-tariffs-if-not.html
Possibly, that will happen as many are suggesting:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/29/us-china-trade-deal-and-market-rally-by-year-end-predicts-strategist.html
It is also possible, and more likely IMO, that Donald decided to manipulate investors into buying stocks in order to stop the market's slide which has been occurring just before the election. He was successful today:
S&P 500 Index 2,682.63 +41.38 +1.57%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx
The bond ghouls were a bit spooked by all of this new found optimism about an imminent trade deal with China:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-rise-after-trump-predicts-great-deal-with-china-2018-10-30
I say that electioneering is more likely reason for Trump's claim that he expects a great trade deal given that the election is next week and all recent reports had no ongoing trade discussions with China and no agreement in sight.
We will find out soon enough whether Donald was playing investors in order to improve republican chances next week or whether there is in fact a "great" trade deal in the works.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/10/observations-and-sample-of-recent_31.html