Saturday, June 14, 2014

Performance Numbers YTD/Intel/MBC Redeemed by Issuer/Pared MIN-Sold 300 at $5.42/Roth IRA: Added 100 NBB at $20.1 and Bought 50 BWG at $17.75 and Sold 50 EXL at $13.68/Sold Taxable Accounts: 100 MDIV at $22.17, 116 ADX at $13.61 (Lowers Average Cost to $10.02 per Share) and 50 MHNC at $25.5/Added 50 CCNE at $16.11


Stocks:
Stable Vix Pattern (Bullish)
Vix Asset Allocation Model Explained Simply
Short Term: Market in Dire Need of a 15% Correction
Intermediate Term: Slightly Bullish (rise since 3/2009 borrows from future gains)
Long Term Bullish

My energy stocks and ETFs hit new 52 week highs last week as oil prices surged due in large part to the escalating Iraq civil war.

The Canadian energy companies did particularly well last week with both CNQ and SU hitting new 52 week highs.

CNQ: $44.24 +0.88 (+2.03%)
SU: $42.69 +0.87 (+2.08%)

I own two ETFs that focus on the Canadian energy sector. If prices continue to surge next week, one of those, probably ENY, may be sold into the price spike, but I am in no hurry to do so:

ENY Position as of 6/13/14
Bonds:
Short to Long Term: Slightly Bearish Based on Interest Rate Normalization
The Difficult Path to Interest Rate Normalization

The bond forecast assumes that the market is pricing correctly the average annual inflation number in the 10 year TIP. Based on the TIP pricing, the nominal ten year treasury is estimated to have a negligible real yield before taxes over the next ten years.

The average junk bond fell to almost a 5% yield last week. Barrons.com Bond yields are way of whack with credit risks, inflation and inflation expectations.

Over the past week, a few bond gurus have started to argue that the FED is behind the curve in raising the federal funds rate to contain inflation. I would not regard that as a debatable point. With CPI currently at 2% Y-O-Y, and accelerating, a federal funds rate at zero is indisputably behind the curve.

According to Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, FED rhetoric suggests that it will not respond appropriately to inflation accelerating over 2%. {MarketWatch; Feldstein's Op-Ed Column in the WSJ} I agree with that assessment.

In order to keep the pedal to the metal, the FED will argue that any spurt inflation in the coming months will be temporary. Their abnormal monetary policies, including ZIRP, are intended in part to create inflation.

The potential danger is that the FED creates an inflation problem which requires quick and significant rises in the FF rate at some point. In that kind of scenario, the possibility of a FED induced recession increases compared to a far less disruptive gradual and incremental rise in the FF rate to more normal levels consistent with current and anticipated inflation.

A similar warning was given by Joe LaVorgna, the chief U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank who argues that the FED is behind the curve and on the verge of sparking another crisis by refusing to respond appropriately to the improving economy and rising inflation. MarketWatch

I would agree that the real economy would not be damaged at all by raising the FF incrementally and gradually from zero, an abnormally low rate in existence for almost 6 years now. Some positives to the economy would flow by providing some incremental and disposable income to those savers who have now over $10T in risk free accounts earning zilch.

I would recognize that this is just an academic debate since the current FED will keep the FF rate at zero well into 2015, even if the core PCE price index, its preferred inflation measure at the moment, accelerates over 2%. That index went from a Y-O-Y increase of 1.1% in March 2014 to 1.6% in April 2014. News Release: Personal Income and Outlays The FED will risk letting the inflation genie back out of the bottle rather than to risk a relapse in the economy by raising the FF rate by just .25% every few months starting sooner rather than later. 

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Recent Developments:

The Mortgage Bankers Association composite index for mortgage applications increased 10.3% for the week ending 6/6/14 compared to the prior week.

The odds of another budget limit increase debacle probably increased with Eric Cantor's defeat last week, as Greg Valliere has already noted in a Barron's article. The next showdown is scheduled to occur early next year.

Cantor will soon step down as the House Majority Leader.  Cantor was in the right wing of a party that is becoming more reactionary by the day. Cantor's lifetime rating from the "American Conservative Union" was 95%. MarketWatch He was not "conservative" enough. He was defeated by Brat who received backing from Laura Ingraham, one of those Fox "news" personalities, noteworthy only for her endless series of reality creations easily proven to be false. Laura Ingraham's file

I noted last week that those who were responsible for our $2+ trillion invasion of Iraq and the deaths of over a half-million Iraqis were blaming Obama for what is now happening in Iraq. There is no need to identify the perpetrators by name. If I understand their latest effort at formulating a thought, the U.S. needed to remain in Iraq another few decades "until the job was done" and to do the fighting for Iraqi army until the end of days whenever some bad guys show up in pickup trucks.

Four Divisions of the Iraqi army abandoned their posts and weapons at the first sign of trouble, and that is Obama's fault too. And Obama is responsible for Maliki's many failures as a leader. The Washington Post

Reuter's Story: "Iraq war to cost U.S. more than $2 trillion"

The Iraqi Army Collapse- NYT (4 divisions abandoned posts and left weapons)

"The Iraqi Army Left Weapons Like These in the Hands of Terrorists Today" - ABC News

FP Group: "Iraqis Stream Out of Mosul as Army Flees Islamist Advance"

It is reminiscent of what happened in Vietnam after the U.S. withdrew its military forces. Tens of millions are simply incapable of learning anything from history and are easily manipulated with cliches and false information. 

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Apple Stock Split 7 for 1:

I received my stock split shares last week:


Item # 2 Bought: 5 AAPL at $524.5 (11/12/14 Post)

I now own 35 shares.

On the first trading day after the distribution, the shares rose some:

6/9/14 Closing Price: AAPL: $93.70 +1.48 (+1.60%)

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Performance Numbers Year-To-Date  Through May 31, 2014 Calculated by Fidelity:



The first two numbers are large taxable accounts. The first taxable account shown in this snapshot has more cash earning zilch than the second one. The bottom two are IRAs.

Market Numbers YTD:


The Vanguard Roth IRA is up 8.9% from 1/1/14 through 5/31/14.

I have to compute that percentage gain. It is managed in the same way as the two IRAs at Fidelity and the performance of all three accounts are similar.

I am not publishing other account performance information including mutual funds held outside of brokerage accounts and smaller taxable satellite brokerage accounts. Some of those later accounts hold common stocks that have performed well this year including OHI, HCP and NVS.

Prior Performance Updates:

Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Performance Numbers YTD (5/17/14 Post)

Portfolio Management Goals-Snapshots of Performance Numbers (April 18, 2014)

Main Taxable and Regular IRA Accounts Performance Numbers Calculated by Broker (12/13/11 Post)

********************************
Intel (own):

Needless to say, my recent pares of my Intel position were premature. Headknocker wanted to know which staff member here at HQ was responsible for leaving almost a $1,000 on the table. LB and RB quickly pointed to the Old Geezer who was taking a nap at the time, preparing to stay up late on Saturday in order to watch the Vanderbilt College World Series baseball game which starts at 7:00 P.M. C.S.T.

Intel Raises Second-Quarter and Full-Year Revenue and Gross Margin Expectations

I still own 110+ shares:

Intel Position as of 6/13/14 Average Cost Per Share=$15.52

Last Friday's Close: INTC: $29.87 +1.91 (+6.83%)

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1. Pared MIN-Sold 300 at $5.42 (see Disclaimer):

Snapshot of Trade:



Snapshot of Profit: 

2014 MIN 300 Shares +$38.87
The profit number will likely be increased early next year when the fund reports 2014 ROC. 


Security Description: MFS Intermediate Income Trust MIN)

CEFConnect Page for MIN

Data as of 5/29/14:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $5.61
Closing Market Price: $5.42
Discount: -3.39%
Average Discounts:
1 Year = -7.46%
3 Years= -1%
5 Years= -1.27%

The fund had an unrealized gain of about $20.325+M as of 1/31/14. MFS INTERMEDIATE INCOME TRUST N-Q

However, there was $33.184+M in loss carryforwards as of 10/31/13, as shown at page 36 of the last SEC Filed Shareholder report. MFS INTERMEDIATE INCOME TRUST N-CSR)

Prior Trade: I still own shares bought in a Roth IRA where I am reinvesting the dividends.

Rationale: This CEF has been supporting its dividend will a significant amount of ROC. And, the monthly dividend rate has been cut several times since topping out at $.04838 in November 2010: MFS Intermediate Income Trust (MIN) Dividend History The monthly rate is now at .03974. Even at that reduced rate the dividend is being supported significantly by a return of capital. According to CEFConnect, only $.0127 of the June dividend of $.0397 was earned by the fund. The remaining $.027 was a return of capital. (click "distributions" tab at CEFConnect)

The fund is rated at 2 stars by Morningstar which seems fair to me.

I regard the loss carryforward to be inconsistent with good portfolio management for an investment grade bond fund, given the very strong tailwind and long term secular bull market for that asset class.

Future Buys/Sells: I will simply continue owning the shares purchased in the ROTH IRA, where ROC is irrelevant, until I can realize a profit on the shares, or I become more concerned about net asset value per share trends. The general idea in the Roth is simply to harvest the dividends without losing anything on the shares.

Last Friday's Close: MIN: $5.33 -0.02 (-0.37%)

2. Added 100 NBB at $20.1 Roth IRA (see Disclaimer):

Snapshot of Trade:

2014 Roth IRA Bought 100 NBB at $20.1
Recent History:


NBB went ex dividend for its monthly dividend shortly after my purchase. NBB Historical Prices

Security Description: The Nuveen Build America Bond Fund (NBB) owns Build America Bonds which are taxable municipal bonds. The fund will terminate on or about 6/30/2020 and will then distribute the fund's assets to its shareholders. NBB uses leverage.

CEFConnect Page for NBB

Data from Date of Purchase 5/30/14:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $22.18
Closing Market Price: $20.12
Discount: -9.29%
Average Discounts:
1 Year = 9.31%
3 Years= 6.52%
5 Years= Not Available

NBB Page at Morningstar (rated 3 stars)



Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report (period ending 3/31/14)

This fund is currently paying monthly distributions at $.116 per share. Nuveen Closed-End Funds Declare Monthly Distributions The last ex dividend date was last Wednesday.

Prior Trades: My last discussion was in this post: Item # 6 Added 50 of the Bond CEF NBB at $17.76 (November 2013 Post)

Other trades are linked in this post: Item # 2 Added 50 NBB at $18.55 (6/29/13 Post) Some flips have realized to date $184.16 in profits: Sold 100 NBB at $20.13-ROTH IRA November 2011Sold 100 NBB at $20.07 November 2011Sold 50 NBB @ 19.24 in the Regular IRA December 2010.

Related Trades: I have also bought and sold NBD, a similar fund from the same sponsor. Sold 100 of the Bond CEF NBD at $21.86-Roth IRA (May 2013)

Rationale: The usual reasons are behind this purchase. I turn this taxable bond fund into a tax free one by buying it in the Roth IRA. Taxable municipal bonds will have higher yields than tax free ones. The Build America Bonds represent a way to own municipal bonds in a retirement account. I would never buy a tax free municipal bond in a retirement account.

As noted above, the fund is tilted toward "A" or better rated bonds.

At the current monthly distribution rate, the dividend yield at a total cost of $20.1 is about 6.93%.

I am basically trading these long duration funds. I also own them to address a low probability scenario which I usually just call the Japan Scenario. In that low possibility scenario, rates remain range bound at abnormally low levels, possibly even moving lower, due to persistent low inflation with drifts into deflationary periods. The best security to own during a deflationary period would be high quality long term bonds. Since I assign a very low probability to the Japan Scenario, I will address it with a limited number of securities and NBB is just one of them.

Risks: This CEF has significant interest rate given its long duration number. As of 4/30/14, the fund calculated the leveraged adjusted duration at 12.2 years. NBB - Holdings and Detail Tab

To calculate how a fund will react to a change in interest rates, the rule of thumb is to multiply the duration by the percentage change in interest rates for similar maturities and bonds. Get to know your bond fund: Duration | Vanguard Thus, a 2% rise in rate could generate almost a 25% loss in NBB's value. That kind of loss would wipe out about 3 1/2 years of dividend payments, so I tread softly with these long duration funds unless I significantly raise the odds of a Japan Scenario for the U.S.

The timing of the liquidation could be disadvantageous to shareholders, which would be the case with interest rates spiking near the liquidation date in 2024 that causes significant price deterioration in the securities just before they are sold by the fund.

Last Friday's closing price: NBB: $20.05 +0.05 (+0.25%)

3. Sold 50 MHNC at $25.5 (see Disclaimer):

Snapshot of Trade:

2014 Sold 50 MHNC at $25.5
Snapshot of Profit:

2014 MHNC 50 Shares $119.07
Item # 3 Bought: 50 MHNC at $22.8 (2/10/14 Post)

Interest Paid=$50.05
Total Return= $169.12 or 14.72%

Security Description: The Maiden Holdings Ltd. 7.75% Notes 2043 (MHNC) is a senior unsecured note issued by Maiden Holdings North America and guaranteed as provided in the Prospectus by Maiden Holdings Ltd. (MHLD), a Bermuda based company that provides reinsurance solutions.

Maiden Holdings does significant business with AmTrust. Barry Ziskind is a large shareholder in both companies. Profile

Rationale: When I purchased 50 MHNC shares, I cited a series of articles that raised questions about AmTrust's accounting. Barron's was one of the publications that discussed these issues, Barrons, along with several published at SeekingAlpha by a short seller known as the "Geo Team". The GeoTeam's Articles on AFSI at Seeking Alpha I reluctantly bought this 50 share lot of a Maiden Holding's senior bond, even at a 8.5% yield, after reviewing those articles.

More accounting issues were raised in another Barron's article that focused on both AmTrust and Maiden. I simply have no training in accounting and consequently can not offer a worthwhile opinion on the issues raised by Barron's. My response, an admittedly knee jerk one, is just to take my profit and exit the position at a premium to par value.

Last Friday's Closing Price: MHNC: $25.99 +0.05 (+0.19%)

4. Sold 116 of the Highest Cost ADX Shares Held for More than 1 Year at $13.61 (see Disclaimer):

Snapshot of Trade:

2014 Sold 116 ADX at $13.61
Snapshot of Profit:

2014 Realized LT Gain ADX 116 Shares=$319.38
This snapshot includes the profit realized from selling 200 of the highest cost shares, purchased in 2008, earlier this year.

Of those shares, only one lot, the 50 shares bought on 6/03/11, was an open market purchase. Added 50 ADX at $10.95 (6/6/11 Post) The remaining shares were purchased with dividends including the 33.737 shares bought on 12/27/12 and 20.02 shares purchased on 12/28/10.

By focusing on selling shares bought with dividends profitably, I increase the dividend yield of those payments.

By choosing the highest cost shares purchased more than one year ago, I lessen my tax liability and improve the dividend yield on the remaining shares.

ADX does not pay dividends supported by a ROC.

Position After Trade:

610.274 Shares Average Cost Per Share=$10.02
I did not sell the 42.071 shares purchased on 12/27/2013 with the year-end dividend distributions (mostly long term capital gains; snapshot in introduction under Adams Express) Those shares were bought at $12.61. I will consider selling those next year, along with the 100 share lot purchased 11/16/12 at a total cost of $10.22, provided the S & P 500 is near or preferably over 2100. Bought 100 ADX at $10.14 (11/21/12 Post)

Prior Trades: In addition to those linked above, some of the earlier discussions include the following: Added 50 of the Stock CEF ADX at $9.77Added 50 ADX at 10.95Bough 200 ADX @ $9.99Added 50 ADX at $9.7Added To CEF ADX at $9.98Bought  ADX at $8.34

Security Description: Adams Express Co.  (ADX) is a closed end stock fund that was formed shortly before the 1929 crash.

ADX page at CEFConnect
ADX Page at Morningstar

Last SEC Filed Annual Report: ADAMS EXPRESS COMPANY - FORM N-CSR - DECEMBER 31, 2013

ADAMS EXPRESS COMPANY - FORM N-Q - MARCH 31, 2014 (list of holdings)

Adams Express Company | Quarterly Changes in Portfolio Securities

This fund will typically trade a 14% to 15% discount to net asset value per share.

ADX committed in September 2011 to an annual distribution rate "of at least 6%". Adams Express Company Historically, ADX has not supported its dividends with a ROC. Most of the dividends are sourced from long term capital gains distributed in December. Adams Express Company Dividend History

Average Discount to Net Asset Value Per Share as of 6/6/14:
1 Year:  14.1%
3 Years: 14.16%
5 Years: 14.61%

This persistent large discount range takes away a profit opportunity for a CEF representing a significant narrowing of the discount after a purchase, when the net asset value is climbing as the the discount shrinks.

Rationale: I am slightly reducing my stock allocation in ways that make sense to me.

Last Friday's Closing Price: ADX: $13.59 +0.03 (+0.26%)

5. Bough 50 of the Bond CEF BWG at $17.75-Roth IRA (see Disclaimer):

Snapshot of Trade:

2014 Roth IRA Bought 50 BWG at $17.75
Security DescriptionLegg Mason BW Global Income Opportunities Fund (BWG) is a leveraged world bond CEF with significant exposure to junk rated securities.


Data from Date of Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $20.67
Closing Market Price: $17.76
Discount: -14.08%
Average 1 Year Discount: -12.54%
Fund Is Less than 3 Years Old

CEFConnect Page for BWG

Sponsor's Website: Overview (effective duration 9.4 years)

Full Holdings

Credit Quality and Currency Exposure as of 3/31/14:

Credit Quality as of 3/31/14

Currency Exposure Including Hedging

BWG Page at Morningstar

Last SEC Filed Form N-Q: Legg Mason BW Global Income Opportunities Fund (period ending 1/31/14)

Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report: LM BW Global Income Opportunities Fund (period ending 10/31/13)(average interest rate cost for year at .85%, see page 33, item # 5)

Prior Trades: I am slightly in the hold for shares held in a taxable account after averaging down:

BWG TAXABLE ACCOUNT  As of 6/13/14
My most recent purchases are discussed in these posts: Bought: 50 BWG at $16.43 (November 2013)Bought 50 BWG at $16.68 (10/3/13 Post)

Rationale: This fund is currently paying a monthly dividend of $.125 per share. Assuming a continuation of that rate, which is in no way assured, the yield at a total cost of $17.75 per share would be about 8.45%.  In the Roth IRA, that taxable dividend is transformed into a tax free one. Money will double in about 8.54 years at 8.45% compounded annually. Estimate Compound Interest

The fund is also selling at a large discount to net asset value and hopefully that discount will narrow some with the net asset value going up hereafter.

Since inception through 6/10/14, the total annualized return based on market price was 3.17% but the fund's annualized return based on net asset value was 12.45%. That is a significant disconnect in my opinion.

Those numbers are calculated by CEFConnect and are available by clicking the "performance" tab.

BWG is a new fund that started in March 2012. On the first day of trading (3/28/12), this fund closed with a net asset value of $19.06 per share. The net asset value per share as of 6/10/14 was $20.98, or a 10% increase, unadjusted for monthly dividend payments. The market price was $20.05 on 3/28/12, declining 11.47% until I purchased shares at $17.75.

The general idea is to collect several monthly dividends and then to exit the position without losing money on the shares before interest rates turn up significantly. Any profit on the share will be viewed as acceptable and as a bonus to the monthly dividend.

Risks: This kind of fund has an abundance of risks attached to it, including credit, interest rate, currency, country and normal CEF risks. One of the normal CEF risks is that the percentage decline in the market price can far exceed the percentage drop in net asset value per share.

Last Friday's Closing Price: BWG: $18.10 +0.11 (+0.61%)

6. Added 50 CCNE at $16.11 (REGIONAL BANK BASKET STRATEGY)(see Disclaimer):

Snapshot of Trade:



Company Description: CNB Financial (CCNE) is the parent company of CNB bank, its principal subsidiary. CNB bank has 28 full service banking offices in Pennsylvania. CCNE recently acquired FCBank, now a division of CNB Bank, that has 8 full service offices in central Ohio.

The bank owns 25 offices and leases the remainder from independent owners. Page 27, Form 10-K.

Bank CNB - Locations

Divisions of CNB

CCNE's market capitalization at my purchase price is less than $250M. Trading volumes are normally thin with a significant bid/ask spread.

CCNE is currently paying a quarterly dividend of $.165 per share. CNB Financial Corporation

CCNE did not cut its dividend during the last recession. The quarterly dividend rate has gone from $.037 per share in 1991 to $.165. However, the dividend has been stuck at $.165 since the 2008 4th quarter.

Prior Trade: I currently own 50 shares bought in 2010:  Bought 50 CCNE at $11.06 (6/30/2010 Post)

Prior Earnings Report: 

2014 First Quarter vs. 2013 First Quarter:

E.P.S.: $. 36 / $.34
Net Income: $5.2M / $4.3M
Net Interest Margin: 3.79% / 3.41% (a notable increase)
ROA= .97% (okay, prefer over 1% or higher)
ROE: 11.97% (fine)
Net Charge Offs-Total Loans: .18% / .47% (good to go down)
NPA Ratio: .62% / .93% (better)
Total Risk Based Capital Ratio: 14% / 15.53%
Tangible Common Equity/Tangible Assets: 6.7% / 7.51% (a negative)

SEC Filed Press Release

Form 10-Q

Rationale: Overall, the financial metrics point to a well run bank with solid capital ratios. At a total cost of $16.11 per share, the dividend yield is decent at 4.1%. While the dividend rate has been stagnant for several years, there are rational reasons to postulate a return to dividend growth in the coming years, though the current abnormal FED monetary policies are negatively impacting net interest margins, the key variable component of earnings for small banks.

The current TTM P/E is reasonable. CCNE Key Statistics

Only one analyst provides estimates. That "consensus" E.P.S. estimate is for $1.4 in 2014 and $1.5 in 2015. CCNE Analyst Estimates At a $16.11 price, the forward P/E based on the 2015 estimate is 10.74. The dividend yield as noted above at that total cost per share number is 4.1%.

Risks: Bank stocks perform poorly during recessions which is far from a pithy observation. CCNE's stock price did better than most regional banks during the last big nasty. The price was hovering around $14 back in 2007 and bottomed near $9 during early 2009.  CCNE Interactive Chart

There are also disadvantages associated with the small size. There is just not much interest in this bank. Trading volume is extremely light.  CCNE Historical Prices

The abnormal FED monetary policies are contributing to net interest margin compression. Due to the last financial crisis, costs associated with new regulations have increased.

CCNE discusses risks incident to its operations starting at page 17 of its 2013 Annual Report. Form 10-K Many of these risks are just generic to banks and simply need to be identified and understood.

Last Friday's Closing Price: CCNE: $16.34 -0.11 (-0.67%)

7. Sold 50 EXL at $13.68-Roth IRA (See Disclaimer):

Snapshot of Trade:



Snapshot of Recent Roth IRA History:



Snapshot of Profit:

2014 Roth IRA EXL 50 Shares +$82.98
Roth IRA: Bought 50 EXL at $11.75 (12/3/13 Post)

Total Return: $100.48 or 16.92%

Security Description: Excel Trust  (EXL) is a self-administered REIT that owns "value oriented community and power centers, grocery anchored neighborhood centers and freestanding retail properties". Page 13 FORM 10-Q

Excel Trust Profile Page at Reuters

Key Developments Page at Reuters

Excel does have an equity preferred stock outstanding: Final Prospectus SupplementExcel Trust Inc. 8.125% Cum. Redeem. Pfd. Series B Stock (EXL.PB)

SEC Filed Earnings Report for Q/E 3/31/14 (FFO at $.23, up from $.22 as of 3/31/12)

Rationale: A number of insiders recently sold stock (see page 8: S-3) That development triggered this disposition taking into account the good annualized total return over about a six month period. I was not exactly enthusiastic with this REIT as evidenced by just a 50 share purchase.

Last Friday's Closing Price: EXL: $13.40 +0.05 (+0.37%)

8. Sold 100 MDIV at $22.17 (see Disclaimer): After I completed last Sunday an analysis of stock additions, pares and deletions, and discovered that I had unintentionally added $31,000 to my stock allocation, I started on Monday selecting securities to sell to take that number down to February 2014 levels.

This security was the third one sold last Monday, and will be the only one of those three discussed in this post. The other two will be mentioned in the next post. I selected MDIV to discuss now since I sold 100 shares in a ROTH IRA last week, and have nothing to add to that recent discussion: Sold 100 MDIV at $21.81.

Multi-Asset Diversified Income ETF Chart

Snapshot of Trade:
2014 Sold 100 MDIV at $22.17
Snapshot of Profit:

2014 MDIV 100 Shares +$157.32 
Item # 2 Bought 100 MDIV at $20.51 (September 2012)

Snapshot of History:

MDIV History-Taxable Account
Dividends Received: $210.01 

Total Return: $367.33 or 17.85%

Security Description: The First Trust ETF VI Multi-Asset Diversified Income Index Fund (MDIV) is an ETF that attempts to track, before fees and expenses, the Nasdaq Multi-Asset Diversified Income Index:

Multi-Asset Diversified Income Index Fund (MDIV) Holdings

Last Friday's Closing Price: MDIV: $22.11 +0.11 (+0.50%)

9. MBC Redeemed at its $10 Par Value: 

MBC was a principal protected note whose coupon was the greater of 3% or a percentage gain in the Russell 2000. I am leaving out some important details since they no longer matter.

In an earlier post, I mentioned that this note would be redeemed by the issuer on 6/9/14. The redemption proceeds would consist of the final annual coupon payment and the $10 par value. MBC Ends Its Final Annual Period with about a 13.03% Coupon Payment on a $10 Par Value I noted that this one provided some excitement in its 2013 coupon period, when it came down to the wire whether I would receive almost $600 or $60 in interest payments. I received $60 due to a Maximum Level Violation three days before the End Date.

I owned 200 shares. Those shares were held in two separate accounts in 100 share lots. Bought 100 MBC at $9.84Bought 100 MBC at $9.78

I received  redemption proceeds of $1,130.27 for each 100 share lot, consisting of $1,000 in principal and $130.27 in interest.




I realized a negligible profit on the bonds in addition to their interest payments.  

The next owned Citigroup Funding PPN to mature will be MKZ which will likely pay more than the 3% coupon. 

Sunday, June 8, 2014

Stock and Stock Fund Update 6/6/14


In this exercise, I am attempting to figure out whether my stock allocation has increased or decreased since the last update and by how much.

A few days ago, I believed that I had reduced my stock allocation a tad since the last update. Instead, I have increased it by over $31,000 according to the following calculations. Most of the adds are in bond substitutes like REITs and BDCs. 

I estimated that the stock allocation increased by about $24,000 between October 2013 and late February when I last performed this analysis. 

The Stable Vix Pattern was formed in September 2012. Vix Asset Allocation Model Explained Simply

As noted in the comment section of an earlier Post, I am attempting to follow the applicable trading strategy for a long term secular bull market in stocks. I am currently above a stock allocation that most financial planners would recommend for someone who is 62.

Generally speaking, the fundamental strategy for a long term secular bull market is buy and hold which simply means keeping my stock allocation at a high level.

It does not mean that I will hold most individual securities for as long as the market remains in a long term secular bull phase. Several stock funds will be held throughout that period, or acquired hopefully in the early stages, with minor pares or no changes. The individual stocks will be subject to what I call "nip and tuck". I may keep some stocks for the entire bull period, while others will be liquidated or pared with other stocks substituted in their place.

One recent shift in the nip and tuck approach was to buy REIT stocks after many of them fell in price by 10% to 20%, and now I am likely to start selling one or two that have risen 20% since my purchase. That is a sector rotation, nip and tuck.

The weight of the evidence is, in my opinion, supportive of the long term secular bull label, as I noted in the introduction section of a December 2013 Post. Long term secular bull markets will have a number of 10% to 20% corrections and at least one 20% to 30% cyclical bear market. The current bull move off the March 2009 lows reminds me of the 1982-1987 move, the first phase of that prior long term secular bull market.

The bull run from August 1982 to 2000 had a 20%+ cyclical bear market which commenced in the October 1987 crash, which is noticeable on a long term chart: Dow Jones Industrial Average (1900 - Present) Notwithstanding that temporary setback, the S & P 500 had over a 14%+ annualized return with dividends reinvested and adjusted for inflation between 1982-2000. The pattern is a somewhat choppy trending up line, ascending at something approaching a 45 degree angle. LONG TERM SECULAR BULL PATTERN 1950 TO 1966

The period preceding that run is a  clear long term secular bear market that produced a negative 1% annualized return calculated on the same basis between 1966 to 1982. Stocks, Bonds & Politics: The Roller Coaster Ride of the Long Term Secular Bear Market (May 2010 Post)

In 2009-2011, I was characterizing the move off the March 2009 lows as a likely (more probable than not) cyclical bull move within the confines of a long term secular bear market, similar to the move made in 1974 to 1976 after the catastrophic phase of a long term bear market occurred in 1974 (similar to what happened after Lehman's failure in September 2008).

1974 or 1982: Start of Cyclical Bull in a Long Term Secular Bear Market or the Start of Secular Bull Market? (September 2009 Post); Stocks, Bonds & Politics: More on 1982 or 1974 (September 2009 Post); The Importance of Identifying the Underlying Causes of Long Term Bull and Bear Markets (June 2011); LONG TERM SECULAR BULL PATTERN 1950 TO 1966/ Long Term Secular Bear Pattern from The Great Depression (September 2009); Stocks, Bonds & Politics: The Big Picture Questions (August 2011).

Irrespective of the characterization, the move had to be played to the upside. Short term bull cycles in long term secular bear markets have been among the most robust rallies in stock market history (e.g. 1933-1937, 1974 to 1976).  The difference is that a cyclical bull move in a long term secular bear must be sold after two or three years generally, whereas an investor needs to transition to buy and hold when evidence supports a long term secular bull characterization. I was able to characterize the move starting in August 1982 immediately as the start of a long term secular bull market. The current situation is not as clear.

My update prior to February 2014 was in October 2013: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Updated Stock Fund Table as of 10/18/13

The following table contains additions and reflects deletions since that last update, plus a few additions and deletions that have not yet been discussed. The additions include shares purchased with reinvested dividends which were unusually high late last year. The shares purchased with the dividends do not add to the value unless those shares increase in price after the reinvestment.

I include some balanced funds where the stock allocation exceeds 50%. I also include the Permanent Portfolio since the large gold and silver bullion positions scare the OG more than stocks. 

As a general rule, I will adjust my stock allocation by buying and selling stock funds. In 2007, I eliminated most of my mutual funds and pared the others down to 100 or 150 shares except for the Permanent Fund which is viewed as a portfolio designed to withstand most disasters. I sold all of my stock ETFs.

This exercise will cause me to do sell some stocks sooner rather than later. While this computation may be off some due to math errors or a failure to include all transactions, it is close enough to prompt me to respond. The net stock addition since October 18, 2013 is almost $55,000.

Click to Enlarge:

Stock Funds as of 6/6/14
Fund Adds (excluding reinvested dividends):

Bought: 50 IF at 9.73 (6/7/14 Post)= +$487

Bought: 100 ASEA at $16.57, 100 FDL at $23.04/Bought 300 of the Canadian ETF FIE:CA at C$7.26 (5/31/14 Post)= +$5,943

Bought:  50 FNLC at $15.6 30 CHN at $19.89 /Bought 50 IFGL at $31.27 (5/24/14 Post)= +2,941

Bought 150 JDD at $11.7 in Taxable Account and 100 at $11.64 in Roth IRA/Added 50 SWZ at $14.32 (4/12/14 Post)= $3635

Bought Two Fidelity Sector ETFs: 100 FSTA at $25.42 and 50 FENY at $25.49 (3/10/14 Post)= +$3,817.


I am in the process of using some cash flow to buy ETFs that can be purchased commission free. The absence of a brokerage commission makes dollar cost averaging with small lots cost effective.

Approximate Fund Purchases Excluding Reinvested Dividends=  +$16,823



Fund Deletions and Pares: 

Pare:  Sold 100 MDIV at $21.81 (6/7/14 Post)= -2,181.

Deletion:  Sold: 123+ BIAUX at $23.13 (6/7/14 Post)= -2,845

Deletion: Roth IRA: SOLD 109+ STK at $16.53 (5/24/14 Post)= -1,802.

Pare: Pared ADX: Sold Highest Cost 200 Shares at $13.21-Reduces Average Cost Per Share from $10.76 to $10.14 (5/17/14 Post)= -2,642

Deletion:  Sold 50 AMJ at $47.49-Roth IRA (4/26/14 Post)= -2,375
Pare: Sold 200 IRR at $10.06 (3/10/14 Post)= -2,012

Pare: Sold: 200 RMT at $12.8-Lowers Average Cost Per Share to $8.61 (3/17/14 Post)= -2,560.

Approximate Fund Deletions/Pares= -16,417 Reduction 
Plus Pare ADX To Be Discussed: -1579
Total= -$17,996

Net Fund Deletion and Pares:  -$1,173

I thought that this net deletion number would be higher. I will need to do something here. 

When updating this table, I will also attempt to measure whether my overall stock allocation has gone up or down since October. In this section, I will calculate individual stock purchases and sells when the transaction exceeds $500, and will assume that lesser amounts just cancel each other out. 

I am omitting from the following compilations stocks that were bought and sold since the last update (e.g. PRDSY).

Stock Additions


(Assumes 1 CAD=$.91)

Bought: 300 DIR_UN:CA at C$9.53 (6/7/14 Post) =+2,602

Added 200 HLP_UN:CA at C$10.2 (5/31/14 Post)= +1,856

Bought 50 ONB at $13.29 (5/26/14 Post)= $665

Bought: 30 RIG at $42.86 AND 30 ESV AT $50.61, 50 FNLC at $15.6, 50 WARFY at $13.08 (4/24/14 Post)= $4,238

Bought:  50 CZNC at $18.5 (5/17/14 Post)= +$925

Bought: 50 BPFH at $12.35, 50 TRMK at $22.73 and 100 AINV at $7.95/Bought 300 ARCP at $12.69 (5/10/14 Post)= $6,357

Bought: 100 HLP_UN:CA at C$10.17 and 100 American Hotels at C$10.05/Bought 100 PNNT Taxable Account at $10.84 (5/3/14 Post)= $2,904

Added 50 NMFC at $14.2 (4/26/14 Post)= +$710

Bought 200 Northwest Healthcare REIT at C$9.79/ Bought Bought Regular IRA-100 MPW at $12.76/ Bought 50 BKCC at $9.22 In Roth IRA and 60 BKCC Taxable Account at $9.24 (4/18/14 Post, combining two BKCC buys)= +$4,073

Added 100 TICC at $9.75-Main Taxable (4/5/14 Post)= +$975

Bought 100 CSG at $7.73, 50 FNCL at $26.57, 100 Cominar REIT at C$18.14 (4/1/14 Post)=$3,753

Bought 300 Temple Hotels at C$5.85, 50 MET at $51.76/Bought 150 CCG at $8.51-Taxable Account (3/24/14 Post)= +5,462

Bought 30 EPR at $53.3, Bought 300 Dundee International REIT at C$9.27 (3/17/14 Post)= $4,130

Bought 50 NABZY at $15.48 (3/10/14 Post)= $774

Bought: 100 Dundee REIT at C$29.35, 150 IRC at $10.35 and 30 Digital Realty (DLR) at $53.4/Bought: 100 FULL at $7.8 (3/3/14 Post)= $6,606

To be Discussed: $805

Approximate Additions= $46,835


Stocks Sells:

Sold 158+ BDN at $15.28 (5/24/14 Post)= -2,402

Sold 100 of 400 ARCP at $13.35/Sold: 100 PFE at $31.68 (5/17/14 Post)= -1,335

Sold: 58+ DWX at $48.75 & 200 CA:ERF at C$22.14 (4/18/14 Post)= -6,857

Pared Intel Again: Sold 40 at $24.61 (3/10/14 Post)= -605

Sold 100 DRE at $16.57/Sold Roth IRA: 50 TCPC at $17.8 (3/3/14 Post)= -2,547

To Be Discussed -$684

Stock Sells Total: $14,430

Net Individual Stock Adds:  $32,405

******************** Total Net Stock Addition= +31,232

Update for Closed End Fund Portfolio as of 6/6/14

The last update for this table was in February 2014: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Update for CEF Portfolio as of 2/14/14

Since I am running about a week behind in discussing my trades, the following table reflects some pares and additions that have not yet been discussed in my weekly posts. For example I recently sold 116 of my highest cost ADX shares, mostly purchased with dividends, and realized a gain of $319.38, plus the value of the original dividends used to purchase shares.  

Click to Enlarge: 




The CEF portfolio is a portfolio within a portfolio. It is a balanced world portfolio that focuses on income generation with capital appreciation being a secondary objective. I have eliminated several buy-write stock funds due to underperformance. I still have a couple that I want to jettison at some point (BCF and IGD), hoping for better prices down the road. I did pare IGD recently. 

For some of these CEFs, I hold positions in two or even three accounts and will vary the reinvestment option by accounts.

I have started to reinvest all dividends paid by bond CEFs due to their abnormally large discounts by historical standards.

Vanguard recently started to allow reinvestment for VGI so I changed the reinvestment option to reinvestment. I am reinvesting the dividend paid by GDO in two out of three accounts. For DPG, I am reinvesting only the dividends for the 100 shares bought in the Roth IRA. 

I have reinvested all dividends paid by SWZ since I first purchased shares.

For ADX, I am currently only reinvesting the capital gains distributions. I tried to stop that reinvestment about a year ago, but Fidelity continues to reinvest the year end ADX capital gain distribution which is by far the largest part of the distributions. Adams Express Company (The) (ADX) Dividend History 


Additions Since Last Update: 

Some recent and small additions are included in this table, but have not yet been discussed due to falling a week to two weeks behind in discussing trades.

Roth IRA: Bought 100 JPI at $23.34/Bought: 50 IF at 9.73/ROTH IRA Paired Trade: Sold 50 ARCPP at $23.75 and Bought 100 JPI at $23.38 (JPI bought in two separate Roth IRA accounts)

Bought: 100 ARMF at $22.15, 100 EMD at $12.8 (5/31/14 Post)

Bought: 30 CHN at $19.89 (5/24/14 Post)

Bought 100 of AIF at $17.88 (5/3/14 Post)

Bought 50 ARMF at $21.8/Bought: 50 FPF at $22.07/Bought 100 FPF at $22.12 (4/26/14 Post)

Bought 100 ESD at $17.28/Bought 150 JDD at $11.7 in Taxable Account and 100 at $11.64 in Roth IRA/Added 50 SWZ at $14.32 (4/12/14 Post)

Bought 100 ESD at $17.28/Bought 150 JDD at $11.7 in Taxable Account and 100 at $11.64 in Roth IRA/Added 50 SWZ at $14.32 (4/12/14 Post)



Added 100 FAM at $13.68 (3/17/14 Post)

Added 100 GDO at $18.06 (2/25/14 Post)



Sold 200 IRR at $10.06 (3/10/14 Post)

Saturday, June 7, 2014

Roth IRA: Sold 100 MDIV at $21.81 and 50 PYS at $23.3 and Bought 100 JPI at $23.34/Sold: 123+ BIAUX at $23.13 and 50 AGIIL at $24.480/Bought: 50 IF at 9.73, 50 GSPRD at $20.2, 300 DIR_UN:CA at C$9.53 / ROTH IRA Paired Trade: Sold 50 ARCPP at $23.75 and Bought 100 JPI at $23.38


Stocks:

Stable Vix Pattern (bullish)
Short Term: Market Needs a 15% Correction
Intermediate Term: Slightly Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Sam Eisenstadt, the quant behind the Value Line ratings who is now retired after 63 with that firm, told Mark Hulbert that his model is predicting another 10% advance in the S & P 500 by 11/30/14 (i.e. above 2,100)

I may be taking some chips off the table with a continued move upward.

A few considerations are keeping me near a 60% stock allocation: (1) the green light in my Vix Asset Allocation Model; (2) my opinion that the weight of the evidence justifies classifying the stock market as being in a long term secular bull mode; (3) the difficulty in timing tops and re-entry points and (4) the lack of anything rational that I can point too at the moment that would cause a crash.

I am not that concerned about a 10% to 20% correction; and I recognize that many were calling for the bottom to fall out in 2011 and 2012. Now, we could have a 20%+ correction and still be way above the S & P 500 close in late August 2011 at 1050. A 20% correction based on a 1950 close would take us down 390 points to 1560.   

Bonds:
Short to Long Term: Slightly Bearish Based on Interest Rate Normalization

The bond forecast is predicated on an average annual inflation rate between 2% to 2.25% over the next 10 years, which is consistent with the forecast embodied in the 10 year TIP pricing.

****************

Recent Developments:

ISM reported that the services PMI rose to 56.3% in May, better than expected. The new orders component rose to 60.5 from 58.2. Prices, which are starting to concern me some, rose to 61.4 from 60.8. Inflation is perking up as the FED continues its monetary policies designed to stoke inflation.

The government reported a 217,000 increase in jobs during May. Employment Situation Summary The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3%. The U-6 number declined to 12.2% from 12.3%. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization Average hourly earnings rose $.05 and have increased 2.1% over the past year. Total employment is now 98,000 above the pre-recession peak.  

ADP estimated that the private sector added 179,000 jobs in May, below the 210,000 consensus estimate. ADP National Employment Report ADP also revised the April increase from +220,000 to +215,000.

The Commerce Department reported that the trade deficit increased to $47.2B in April, up from the revised March number of $44.2B. census.gov.pdf

According to AutoData, light vehicle sales rose 9% Y-O-Y in May, and increased 5% over April. Fox BusinessAuto Sales - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com.

Eurostat reported that inflation rose .5% Y-O-Y in May. 

Eurostat reported last Wednesday that seasonally adjusted first quarter euro area GDP rose .2% and was up .9% seasonally adjusted Y-O-Y. Europe's first quarter GDP number was better than the U.S. which was recently revised down into negative territory.

In an effort to combat the low inflation trend in Europe, the ECB lowered its benchmark rate to .15% from .25% and applied a negative rate .1% interest rate to average reserve holdings in "excess of minimum reserve requirements". ECB: Monetary policy decisionsECB: ECB introduces a negative deposit facility interest rate"European Central Bank Takes a Radical Step" - NYT The negative rate on excess reserves represents an effort to force banks to make more loans. The ECB has not yet pulled the trigger on QE.

**********************

Cascades Tender Offer for 7.75% Senior Unsecured Bond Maturing in 2017:

Cascades Inc. Announces Cash Tender Offer and Consent Solicitation for Any and All of its 7.75% Senior Notes due in 2017 and its 7.34% notes due in 2016

I own the one maturing in 2017: Bought 1 Cascades 7.75% Senior Bond Maturing on 12/15/2017 at 96.5 (9/1/11 Post)

I spent a few seconds trying to locate the optional redemption provision in the prospectus. If the note is redeemed prior to 12/15/14, which looks likely, then the issuer has to pay 103.875% plus accrued interest to the redemption data: Page 71, Prospectus.

I am noting this tender offer since it is just another manifestation of an ongoing problem. Generally, the issuer will conduct a tender offer for any and all bonds and then complete the purchase of the outstanding balance at whatever price has to be paid under the prospectus. I consequently expect to lose this bond relatively soon.

Cascades Inc. just sold upsized bond offerings, selling $550M 5.5% notes maturing in 2022 and C$250 notes with the same coupon maturing in 2021. The company specifically states that it will redeem whatever is left after the tender using the proceeds from those bond sales.

So, the company extends the maturity and cuts the rate by 2.25%.

I would just add another note to this saga. The unsecured senior debt of Cascades is currently rate Ba3 by Moody's and B by S & P: Cascades - Current Credit Ratings

***************************
Compass Bond Upgrade:

One of my bonds is now rated investment grade by all three rating agencies: Compass Bank 5.9% Maturing in 2026

I bought this one in July 2012. BOUGHT 1 Compass Bank 5.9% Subordinated Note Maturing in 2026 at 76.75 It is now selling near par. This bond is lightly traded, and a one bond lot would be extremely difficult to sell. I am pretty much stuck with it until maturity.

**************************

1. Sold 50 PYS at $23.3-Roth IRA (see Disclaimer):

Snapshot of Trade:
2014 Roth IRA Sold 50 PYS at $23.3

Snapshot of Profit:

2014 PYS 50 Shares +$163.52
Bought 50 PYS at $19.75-Roth IRA (February 25, 2014 Post)

Security Description: The Merrill Lynch Depositor Inc. PPLUS Cl A 6.3% TRUCs Series RRD-1 for R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co. (PYS) is an Exchange Traded Bond in the Trust Certificate form of legal ownership.

The TC represents an undivided beneficial interest in RR Donnelley senior bonds owned by a trust maturing on 4/15/2009. PYS has a lower coupon than the underlying senior bond. The TC has a 6.3% coupon on a $25 par value, whereas the bonds owned by the trust have a 6.625% coupon on a $1,000 par value. 

PYS Prospectus

Prior Trades: Most of my profits trading this security originated from two fifty lots sold in 2010 for a $222.68 profit. Bought 50 PYS at 20.01 March 2010Added 50 PYS at 19.59 June 2010Sold 50 PYS at 20.76 July 2010Sold  50 PYS @ 24 November 2010

I have also profitably traded RRD common shares and RR Donnelley bonds in the bond market. I currently own just one $1,000 par value RRD senior unsecured bond: Bought 1 R.R. Donnelley 6.125% Senior Bond Maturing 1/15/2017 at 89 That one generally trades in the 108-111 range and I would gladly sell when and if a buyer emerges for just one bond in that price range. Bonds Detail

Rationale: I am raising cash levels in my IRA due to concerns that the FED may allow the inflation genie back out of the bottle by continuing their extraordinary easy money policies as inflation ticks up. This is a precautionary move.

I managed my IRAs with preservation of capital as the prime consideration. Most likely, I will never withdraw any of the those funds. I will gradually transfer the remaining funds in a regular IRA into a ROTH IRA which has no mandatory withdrawal requirements for the owner (as opposed to someone who inherits a Roth IRA, MRDs for Inherited IRAs)

Future Buys: Given the junk rating, the long standing secular decline in RRD's business, and interest rate risk inherent in any long bond, I will require a price below $20 before I would consider repurchasing a small lot.

Closing Price Last Friday: PYS: $23.60 0.00 (0.00%) 

2. Sold 50 AGIIL at $24.48 (see Disclaimer):

2014 Sold 50 AGIIL at $24.48
Snapshot of Profit:

2014 AGIIL 50 Shares +$152.58
Item # 3 Bought:  50 AGIIL at $21.11 (October 2013 Post)

I received two quarterly interest payments, totaling $40.62 :




Total Return: $193.2 or 18.17% on a total cost basis of $1,063.45 (holding period=7 months)

Security Description: The Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. 6.5% Senior Notes Due 2042 (AGIIL) is a senior unsecured exchange traded bond issued by the Argo Group, a U.S. subsidiary of the Argo Group International Holdings Ltd.  (AGII). This notes makes quarterly interest payments at the fixed coupon rate of 6.5% per annum on a $25 par value. The issuer has the option to redeem at par plus accrued interest on or after 9/15/2017. If not redeemed early, the note matures in 2042. 

Prior Trades: I still own 50 shares in a Roth IRA. Item # 6 Bought 50 AGIIL at $20.2 (December 2013 Post). 

Rationale: AGIIL is a potentially long term bond with considerable interest rate risk. While this bond was yielding more than 6% at the $24.48, I elected to harvest the profit anyway due to my concerns about inflation/interest rate risk. I will consider repurchasing shares when and if the price declines below my last purchase price.  In the last analysis, and at the current stage of the interest rate cycle, I am inclined to believe that 6.5% to 6.7% is inadequate compensation for a bond maturing 2042.

Closing Price Last Friday: AGIIL: $24.10 -0.15 (-0.62%) 

3. Added 50 of the foreign stock CEF IF at $9.73 (Emerging Market Consumer Super Cycle Strategy)(See Disclaimer): I mentioned adding to my position in last week's post. This add brings up to 164+ shares. 

Snapshot of Trade:


Security Description: The Aberdeen Indonesia Fund (IF) is a closed end fund that invest in Indonesia's stocks. 

Subsequent to my last purchase, this fund paid a $1.1037 per share long term capital last December and a $.2186 per long term capital gain distribution in September 2013. I reinvested both distributions. 

Data from Day of Trade: 5/21/14
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $10.84
Closing Market Price: $9.67
Discount: -10.79%
1 Year Average Discount: -11.11%
3 Year Average Discount: -9.81%
5 Year Average Discount: -8.84%
10 Year Annualized Total Return to 5/21/14: 18.4% (based on net asset value)

CEFConnect for IF  


Aberdeen Indonesia Fund Page at Morningstar (currently unrated)

JKSE Index Index Chart (Jakarta index was trading over its 50 and 200 day SMA at the time of purchase)

Prior Trades:  Prior to this trade, I owned 114+ shares. Bought Back IF at $11.23

Item # 5 Sold 100 IF at $12.91 (April 2013)(snapshot of profit=$110.77)-Item #1 Bought 100 of IF at $11.64 (1/3/13 Post)

Rationale: Again, I am playing a long term super cycle involving the parabolic growth of middle class consumers in emerging markets. Indonesia is just one of those markets. This fund has generated an excellent annualized total return over the past 10 years. The past may not be prologue but I believe that Indonesia has better days ahead of it. 



Risks: There are numerous risks associated with a CEF that invests in stocks from one foreign country. Currency risk was highlighted recently, starting last May, when a spike in U.S. interest rates caused a significant decline in EM currencies, stocks and bonds. Emerging markets can be quite volatile, and can be positively correlated with downside moves in U.S. stocks with much higher betas.  

USD/IDR Currency Conversion Chart

Closing Price Last Friday: IF: $9.70 +0.03 (+0.31%)

4. Sold 100 MDIV at $21.81-Roth IRA (see Disclaimer):

Snapshot of Trade:

2014 Roth IRA Sold 100 MDIV at $21.81 
Snapshot of Roth IRA History:


Dividends Paid as of 5/1/14: $188.53
Dividend Paid 5/30/14= $12.48
Total Dividends= $201.01

Snapshot of Profit:

2014 Roth IRA 100 MDIV= +$126. 96
Bought 100 MDIV at $20.4-ROTH IRA (Sept. 2012

Total Return: $327.97 or 16%

Security Description: The First Trust ETF VI Multi-Asset Diversified Income Index Fund (MDIV) is an ETF that attempts to track the Nasdaq Multi-Asset Diversified Income Index. Multi-Asset Diversified Income Index Fund (MDIV) Holdings

Prior Trades: I still own 100 shares in a taxable account, but will probably sell those shares later this year. Item # 2 Bought 100 MDIV at $20.51 (September 2012)

Rationale: I am raising cash in the Roth IRA. I also do not like this fund's 15% exposure to a junk bond ETF. I view junk bonds as overvalued taking into consideration their current low yields in relation to their default risks. During the Near Depression period, the Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Effective Yield Index soared to over 20%, and is now below 5.5%. St. Louis Fed This fund was hurt last year due to its exposure to Mortgage REITs whose market prices and net asset values per share spiraled downward as interest rates rose, made worse by a series of dividend cuts.

The total return was decent provided I harvested a profit rather than a loss on the shares.

Closing Price Last Friday: MDIV: $22.22 +0.07 (+0.32%)

5. Bought 300 DIR_UN:CA at C$9.53 (Canadian Dollar (CAD) Strategy)(see Disclaimer):

Snapshot of Trade:

2014 Bought 300 DIR_UN:CA at C$9.53
Security Description: The Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (DIR.UN:TOR) is a Canadian REIT that owns industrial properties. As of 3/31/2014, DIR owned 205 light industrial buildings located in seven Canadian provinces.

Website: Dundee Industrial REIT (former name)

Prior Trades: None

Recent Earnings Reports: For the 2014 first quarter, DIR reported FFO per unit of 24 cents, up 11% from the year ago quarter. Adjusted AFFO per unit was C$.20 per unit, up 18% over the 2013 first quarter. The AFFO payout ratio was 86.3% (and 71.1% based on FFO). Occupancy was reported at 96.3%. The portfolio size was 15.6 million square feet, with a weighted average capitalization rate of 6.73% on stabilized net operating income. Leverage was at 52.4%. The weighted average interest rate on DIR's debt was 4.17%.

DIR_Q1_2014.pdf

This is a very detailed report.

Rationale: This REIT is currently paying a monthly dividend of C$.058 per unit or C$.7 annually. At that rate, the dividend yield at a total cost of C$9.53 per share is about 7.35%.

As with other Canadian REITs, I am attempting to earn some return on my Canadian dollar stash. The general goal is harvest at some point a 10% or higher annualized total return which can be achieved with less than a 3% appreciation in the share price per year assuming a continuation of the dividend at the present rate.

The occupancy rate for an industrial REIT is excellent. Recent lease renewals have been at higher rates:

Page 9 of First Quarter Report
Risks: This is a new REIT that commenced operations in 2012. In the initial IPO, DIR sold 15.5M unit at C$10 per unit. Another 13.57M units were sold in December 2012 at C$10.6. Another 10.465M units were sold at C$11 in March 2013. Shares were also issued to the sellers of some properties as noted at page 19 of the 2013 Annual Report.

DIR_2013 Annual Report.pdf

The company discusses risks relating to its operations starting at page 32 of the Annual Report.

Currency risk is always present when a U.S. investor buys a foreign security. That risk is not avoided by buying an ADR using USDs or by converting USDs into a foreign currency to buy the ordinary shares on a foreign stock exchange. The ADR purchase using USDs does avoid the currency conversion fees (1% at Fidelity) and the higher commission rate charged by most brokers for purchasing the ordinary shares on a foreign stock exchange.

Closing Price Last Friday: DIR-UN.TO: C$9.62 -0.06 (-0.62%)

6. Added 50 GSPRD at $20.2 (see Disclaimer): This brings me up to 150 shares. I have convinced myself that I can successfully trade these floaters, but the past may not be prologue.

Snapshot of Trade:


Security Description: The Goldman Sachs Group  Non-Cumulative Preferred Series D (GS.PD) is a floating rate equity preferred stock that pays non-cumulative and qualified dividends at the greater of 4% or .67% above the three month Libor rate on a $25 par value. Prospectus

I generally describes the advantages and disadvantages of equity preferred floaters in this post: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities

One of the advantages is that some protection is built into the same security for both the deflation/low inflation and problematic inflation scenarios. The minimum coupon addresses the deflation/low inflation scenario while the float above the 3 month Libor is relevant for the problematic inflation scenario.

Prior Trades: This purchase brings my current position up to 150 share (100 shares in a taxable account and 50 shares in a Roth IRA). This purchase was made in a taxable account and represents an average down.

Currently Owned Shares: 

Item # 6 Bought Roth IRA: 50 GSPRD at $21.65 (July 2013)

Item # 1 Bought 50 GSPRD at $20.6 December 2012

I have repeatedly flipped this security for small capital gains:

Item # 5 Sold 100 GSPRD at $23.71-Roth IRA (April 2013)(contains snapshot of gain=$219.25)-Item # 4 Bought 100 GSPRD at $21.38 (February 2013);

Item # 6 Sold 100 GSPRD @ $23.89 (4/23/13 Post)(snapshot of realized gain $257.24)-Bought 100 GSPRD at $21.18 January 2013

Item # 6 Sold 50 GSPRD at $20.03 July 2012 (snapshot of profit $42.47)-Item # 1 Bought Back GSPRD at $18.9 July 2012;

Item #2 Sold 50 GSPRD at $20.47 (March 2012)(snapshot of gain=$79.48)-Item # 1 Bought 50 GSPRD at $18.6 (September 2011 Post)

Item # 1 Sold 50 GSPRD @ $22.72 (April 2011)(realized gain $41.07-snapshot in Gateway Post)-Item # 2 Bought 50 GSPRD at 21.58 (January 2011)

Total Realized Capital Gains: $639.51

Related Trades: I have also bought and sold two other functionally equivalent Goldman Sachs equity preferred floaters, GSPRA and GSPRC. Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Floaters: Links in One Post I currently own 50 shares of GSPRC: Bought: 50 GSPRC at $19.95

I have also bought and sold GSPRJ, a fixed to floating rate equity preferred stock. Bought:  50 GSPRJ at $22.78

Rationale and Risks: The current yield at a total cost of $20.2 per share is about 4.95% which looks okay for a floater; given what is available now after the FED's Jihad Against the Savings Class, now in its 6 year. The three month Libor would have to rise above 3.33% to trigger an increase in the coupon, and I do not expect that this will happen for several more years.

Inflation and inflation expectations may force the FED to raise the federal funds rate sooner and/or faster than currently expected by the market.

I am obviously in a trading mode for this security. Prices for equity preferred floaters were hit hard when interest rates started to rise last year. Generally, the percentage decline in equity preferred floaters with low minimum coupons (4% or less) was greater than fixed coupon equity preferred stocks from the same or similar issuers. Rates were not rising based on an increase in inflation or inflation expectations, but due to the process of interest rate normalization.

Equity preferred stocks can become volatile with a strong downside bias during periods of market turbulence. The last such period was during the summer of 2011, when the VIX spiked and stocks corrected by almost 20%. I noted the price action on one day back in August 2011: Fear and Enhanced Volatility in Certain Classes of Income Securities

The Near Depression period was far worse for equity preferred stocks, as their prices plummeted to the single digits for most issues, particularly those issued by banks and other  leveraged firms including equity REITs. So, when and if that kind of event rolls around again, don't ask me why an equity preferred stock bought near its $25 par value is selling at $8 or even lower even when it is paying its dividend.

Future Buys/Sells: On a rise above $22, I will consider selling my highest cost 50 share lot bought at $20.6 in the taxable account.

Closing Price Last Friday: GS-PD: $20.22 +0.11 (+0.55%)

7. Bought 100 JPI at $23.34 Roth IRA (see Disclaimer): I also added 100 shares in another Roth IRA account, part of a paired trade, discussed in # 9 below.

This fund intends to liquidate on or before 8/31/2024. (Prospectus at page 1 Nuveen Preferred and Income Term Fund)

Snapshot of Trade:

2014 Roth IRA Bought 100 JPI at $23.34
Security Description: The Nuveen Preferred & Income Term Fund (JPI)

Data From Date of Purchase (5/28/14)
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $25.47
Closing Market Price: $23.39
Discount: -8.17%
1 Year Average Discount: -7.82%
Fund Commenced July 2012

Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report: Period Ending 1/31/14

CEFConnect Page for JPI

Sponsor's webpage: JPI - Nuveen Preferred and Income Term Fund (as of 3/31/14, effective duration was 5.74 years and the leverage adjusted duration was 8.01 years)


The market price went from $26.38 on 5/8/13 to $21.77 on 12/12/13: JPI Interactive Chart The net asset value per share went from $26.29 to $24.51 during that same period. Unadjusted for dividends, the market price declined 17.48%, while the net asset value per share went down 6.8%.

Prior Trades: None

Rationale: The primary rationale is to generate tax free income in the Roth IRA. The current monthly dividend rate is $.158 per share. Nuveen Closed-End Funds Declare Monthly Distributions; CEFConnect-Distributions Tab.

Assuming a continuation of that rate, which is in way assured, the dividend yield at a total cost of $23.34 would be about 8.12%.

The fund did pay out a short term capital gain of $.4879 per share last December.

The monthly rate was cut from $.169 to $.158 in March 2014.

So far, CEFConnect does not show any ROC.

The liquidation data in 2024 could be a positive, provided rates have not risen substantially between now and then. By buying this CEF at a greater than 8% discount to the current net asset value per share, an investor desiring to hold long term has some cushion insulating them from a rise in rates over the next decade, while collecting almost ten years of monthly dividends and possibly more capital gain distributions. That cushion may prove to be nowhere near enough, however, depending on credit and interest rate risk issues.

Risks: The fund summarizes risks at its website and starting at page 17 of its last SEC filed shareholder report.

The liquidation feature, which turns JPI into a term bond fund, may be good, bad or indifferent. It would be bad for a long term holder with interest rates spiking near the liquidation data, causing the fund to sell bonds at a loss in preparation for the liquidation. The positive side is that the term bond fund mimics in some ways the purchase of a bond with a maturity date. The term funds that own only bonds maturing in a particular year, such as the Guggenheim term junk and investment grade ETFs, have less interest rate risk than a term bond fund like GDO, IGI or JPI which owns bonds many bonds maturing after the liquidation date. That difference may be an advantage or a disadvantage depending on what prices are doing before the liquidation date.

Future Buys/Sells: I view this purchase as a trade, but I may also decide to hold until the 2024 liquidation date. That kind of decision will be based on what amounts to a guess about the future course of interest rates. If it appears reasonable that I could collect the monthly dividend and lose nothing on the shares by holding, I may elect to just hold. If the shares spike back toward $25, harvesting the profit would be likely given the uncertainty about future interest rates.

Closing Price Last Friday:  JPI: $23.32 +0.03 (+0.13%)

8. Sold 123+ of the Stock Mutual Fund BIAUX at $23.13 (see Disclaimer):

Snapshot of Trade:



Snapshot of Profit:

2013 Sold 123+ BIAUX +$217.13

The shares sold included those purchased with the 2013 annual distribution: 4.842 shares bought at $22.85 or $110.64 (Snapshot in Introduction under "Recent Mutual Fund Dividend Reinvestments)

Initiated Position ($2,500 minimum) in BIAUX

Total Return= $347.79 on $2,500 or 13.9% annualized (proceeds $2,847.79 - $2,500 total investment)

Security Description: The Brown Advisory Small-Cap Fundamental Value Fund;Investor Fund Price Today (BIAUX) is a mutual fund.

BIAUX Page at Morningstar (rated 5 stars)

Rationale: This fund was briefly made available to Fidelity customers on a NTF basis.  The availability was subsequently changed to a transaction fee for new purchases so I decided to let it go. I will not pay a transaction fee to acquire any mutual fund. I could sell the shares bought on a NTF basis, and reinvested dividends, without incurring a commission. I am also very concerned about valuations in small caps.

9. Paired Trade Roth IRA: Sold 50 ARCPP at $23.75 and Bought 100 JPI at $23.38 (see Disclaimer): I pick up more yield with an overall higher credit quality and a diversified portfolio with JPI. This JPI purchase was made in another ROTH IRA account.

Snapshot of ARCPP:

2014 Roth IRA Sold 50 ARCPP at $23.75
Snapshot of ARCPP History-Roth IRA:


Dividends Received + One Pending=$37.46

I will receive one more monthly dividend since this security went ex dividend shortly after this transaction.

Snapshot of ARCPP Profit:


2014 Roth IRA 50 ARCPP +$107.22


Item # 1 Bought ROTH IRA 50 ARCPP at $21.33 (2/13/14 Post)

Total Return 50 ARCPP=$144.68 or 13.48% annualized in slightly more than 4 months

Snapshot of JPI Purchase:

2014 Roth IRA Bought 100 JPI at $23.38
Security Descriptions:

ARCPP: American Realty Capital Properties 6.7% Cumulative Preferred Series F (ARCPP) is an equity preferred stock that pays cumulative and non-qualified dividends at the fixed coupon rate of 6.7% on a $25 par value. Prospectus

JPI: Discussed in Item # 7 Above

Prior Trades for ARCPPItem # 7 Paired Trade: Sold 100 ARCPP at $23.43 and Bought 300 ARCP at $12.69 (5/10/2014 Post)Item # 2 Paired Trade: Bought 100 ARCPP at $22.76-Sold 50 BMLPRJ at $21.05 (4/15/14 Post)

Rationale: My disdain for the ARCP's CEO is growing exponentially. Without going into any great detail here, I would just reference my comments about Nick's history; and the recent less than desirable actions of this company, including the clear statement by Nick that ARCP would not issue shares at $12 made in February 2014 followed by the sell of 138M shares at $12 in May: southgent1951's Comments on ARCP

I elected to dispose of the ARCPP since the current yield at the $23.75 sale's price was 7%, which is at my marker (7% or less) for selling an equity preferred stock. I also pick up more current yield and a more diversified higher quality portfolio with JPI.

The two governance watchdogs, ISS and Glass, Lewis & Co., recommended that shareholders vote against ARCP's compensation plan as being too generous. WSJ Shareholders defeated the proposed compensation package in an advisory vote:  WSJ

For: 134,034,390
Against: 279,510,480

SEC Form 8-k

The number of withheld votes for the election of the Directors indicates to me significant displeasure with what is happening at ARCP.  

A hedge fund known as Marcato Capital Management sent a letter to ARCP expressing its displeasure with recent events: Marcato Sends Letter to American Realty Capital Properties

Future Buys and Sells: Given my growing disdain for ARCP's management, and Nick's recent history of contradictory promises made to shareholders, I am not likely to buy more ARCP or ARCPP shares. Given the recent involvement of Marcato, I may hold until there is a dividend cut or a substantial recovery in the share price, which ever occurs first. Part of that approach is based on what happened to the CWH share price after a similar letter was sent to management, which allowed me to sell the shares at a decent profit.

Closing Price Last Friday: ARCPP: $23.56 +0.06 (+0.28%)

Politics and Etc:

1. Opinions Formed Via Brain Malfunctions and No Accurate Information: Two of my favorite topics are the "efficient market" theory and the "rational man" foundation of modern economic thought. Efficient Market Theory: Do Humans Really Behave Rationally-Seek out Relevant Information & Then Process Information With Good Judgment?Efficient Market Hypothesis as Hokum; ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS

It is humorous at times to read comments made at SeekingAlpha that are based on clearly erroneous information. There is also a strong correlation between the certainty of those opinions and the absence of reliable information underlying them. More reliable information and a measure of good judgment deflates dogmatism and sows the seeds of doubt.

Many will even become angry with anyone that points to a reliable piece of information inconsistent with their reality creations. True Believers, the name that I assign to this crowd, can not be persuaded with accurate factual information. They are beyond hope in that regard.

I read an article in Newsweek that delves into a common brain malfunction known generally as conspiracy theories. "The Plots to Destroy America" In that article, there is a reference to a poll which showed that 28% of Americans believe "a secret power elite is conspiring to rule the world through a global authoritarian government" (usually the United Nations). Another 15% believe the government is exercising mind control through television broadcasts. Other examples are given in that article that simply highlights other topics involving mass delusion.

While descriptions of these wingnut fantasies are illuminating, they only scratch the surface. Millions of investors are acting on basically the same kind of fantasies and reality creations, having no inclination to discover accurate information and no mental toolkit to separate fact from fiction. The mass delusions underlying bubbles in asset prices is just one of many manifestations. The title of that book published in 1841, Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, scratches the surface of this particular manifestation of a collective brain malfunction. I would never assume that the market price is a "rational" price because a large number of humans are involved in setting it.

The same kind of lemming infestation frequently occurs in the U.S. when the masses make going to war decisions. I am just highlighting here the major adverse ramifications of this thesis. How many citizens formed a coherent and informed opinion about the Vietnam or Iraq War before the U.S. became involved in those conflicts, during their course, or even after their conclusion. It is really frightening from my perspective how easily tens of millions can be manipulated with false information.