The U.S. stock futures are reacting positively to France's election, viewing the centrist candidate Macron as easily beating Le Pen in the runoff election:
E-Mini S&P 500 Future Jun 2017 Price= 2,368.75 +21 or .89% as of 6:04 C.S.T on 4/23/17.
The Euro is gaining ground against the USD as EU disintegration fears subside.
EUR/USD 1.0877 0.0152 1.42%
Euro Gaps Sharply Higher as Le Pen, Macron Advance in French Vote
This sigh of relief may not last long.
A partial U.S. government shutdown is looming by week's end.
The White House Seems Excited to Shut Down the Government - The New Yorker
11 Quick Facts About A Potential Government Shutdown: Forbes
Government shutdown? Here's who keeps working and who doesn't: CNBC
Trump and his aides take hard line on border wall, as threat of government shutdown looms - The Washington Post
I suspect that a continuing resolution will be passed extending the deadline to 9/30/17, the end of the government's current fiscal year.
++++++++++
1. Intermediate Term Bond Ladder Basket Strategy:
E-Mini S&P 500 Future Jun 2017 Price= 2,368.75 +21 or .89% as of 6:04 C.S.T on 4/23/17.
The Euro is gaining ground against the USD as EU disintegration fears subside.
EUR/USD 1.0877 0.0152 1.42%
Euro Gaps Sharply Higher as Le Pen, Macron Advance in French Vote
This sigh of relief may not last long.
A partial U.S. government shutdown is looming by week's end.
The White House Seems Excited to Shut Down the Government - The New Yorker
11 Quick Facts About A Potential Government Shutdown: Forbes
Government shutdown? Here's who keeps working and who doesn't: CNBC
Trump and his aides take hard line on border wall, as threat of government shutdown looms - The Washington Post
I suspect that a continuing resolution will be passed extending the deadline to 9/30/17, the end of the government's current fiscal year.
++++++++++
1. Intermediate Term Bond Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 1 Shell International 1.875% Senior Unsecured Bond Maturing on 5/10/21:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at Aa2
Moody's downgrades Royal Dutch Shell to Aa2; negative outlook
S & P at A
Bonds and credit ratings information | Shell Global
Moody's downgrades Royal Dutch Shell to Aa2; negative outlook
S & P at A
Bonds and credit ratings information | Shell Global
YTM at Total Cost (98.074 )= 2.37%
B. Bought 2 Microsoft 2% Senior Unsecured Bonds Maturing on 8/8/23:
This bond was bought in a Roth IRA account. This bond was sold to the public back in August 2016.
Issuer: Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
MSFT Microsoft Corp Page at Morningstar
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus is not linked)
Prospectus
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at AAA
S & P at AAA
YTM at Total Cost (96.305) = 2.636%
Earnings Report for the Q/E 12/31/16
MSFT SEC Filings
MSFT Analyst Estimates
Microsoft sold $17B in senior unsecured notes last January:
Prospectus
C. Bought 1 Public Service of Colorado 2.9% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 5/15/25:
Issuer: Wholly Owned Subsidiary of Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL:NYSE)
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
XEL Xcel Energy Inc Page at Morningstar
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at A1
S & P at A
Fitch at A+
Fitch Rates Public Service Co. of Colorado's FMBs 'A+'
Moody's affirms Public Service Company of Colorado
Credit Ratings | Xcel Energy
YTM at Total Cost (99.697) = 2.942%
XEL 2016 Annual Report
D. Bought 1 Public Service E & G 2% First Mortgage Bond Maturing 8/15/2019-ROTH IRA Account:
Issuer: Operating Electric Utility wholly owned by Public Service Enterprise Group Inc (PEG)
PEG Public Service Enterprise Group Inc Page at Morningstar
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at A1
S & P at A
Fitch at A+
YTM at Total Cost (100.138 ) = 1.938%
PEG 2016 Annual Report (Public Service Electric and Gas "distributes electric energy and gas to customers within a designated service territory running diagonally across New Jersey where approximately 6.2 million people, or about 70% of New Jersey’s population resides.")
E. Bought 2 Corporate Office Properties 3.6% Senior Unsecured Bonds Maturing on 5/15/23:
Issuer: Corporate Office Properties Trust (OFC:NYSE)-A REIT
OFC Corporate Office Properties Trust Page at Morningstar
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at Baa3
Moody's affirms the ratings of Corporate Office Properties; outlook stable
S & P at BBB-
YTM at Total Cost (98.264) = 3.922%
OFC SEC Filings
OFC Analyst Estimates
2016 Annual Report (debt summary starts at page F-41)
2016 4th Quarter Report
Corporate Office Properties Trust website
I have never owned the OFC common stock. I did rent one of its equity preferred stocks for a brief period: Bought: 50 FPOPRA at $24.25, 50 OFCPRL at $24.04, 50 STK at $14.38 /Added to Vanguard Wellington (VWELX) and the Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX)/Added 50 KWN at $23.79 -Roth IRA (1/6/14 Post)
2. Continued to Pare Non-REIT Stock Allocation:
A. Sold 50+ BDGE Shares at $35.03:
Profit Snapshot: +$372.06
Quote: Bridge Bancorp Inc. (BDGE)
BDGE Analyst Estimates
BDGE Bridge Bancorp Inc page at Morningstar
2016 Annual Report
2016 4th Quarter Earnings Report (core efficiency ratio at 53.57%; NPL Ratio at .05%; NPA Ratio at .03%; Total Capital Ratio at 15%; Operating expense as a percentage of average assets at 1.88%; NIM at 3.41%; ROTE at 13.6%; coverage ratio at 2,087.35%; net charge-offs for 2016 at $400,000)
This 50 share lot was purchased at $27.65, using a commission free trade, on 10/26/16. I briefly mentioned that purchase here and discussed the bank in more detail shortly after that discussion.
I am selling regional bank stocks that have rallied after the election based on the herd opinion that Trump would cause inflation through liberal doses of stimulus. For awhile, the Bond Ghouls bought into that narrative and I mentioned the narrative as a catalyst for regional banks on 11/9/16: South Gent's Comment Blog # 4:
The consensus narrative was in vogue until mid-March, when the 10 year treasury yield closed at a 2.62% yield. The trend since that time has been for lower intermediate and long term rates as short term interest rates rise in response to the FED increasing the FF rate. The consensus opinion that net interest margin would expand under a Trump Presidency was met with the hard reality that the yield was not expanding, but was contracting again.
The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed at $43.97 on 11/8/16 and at $59.36 on 3/1/17, a gain of 35% unadjusted by dividend payments. After intermediate and long term interest rates turn back down, so did KRE. Reality was undermining the consensus opinion.
I have a favorable view of this bank and will continue to hold a 109+ share stake with an average cost per share basis of $19.05.
I will consider buying back shares somewhere south of $27.65.
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: REGIONAL BANK BASKET STRATEGY GATEWAY POST
Realized BDGE Gains To Date: $729.91 (see snapshots in Gateway Post for this topic)
One major problem for me is that the quarterly dividend has remained at $.23 per share since 2005 (payout ratio shown at 46%).
The shares are also pricey IMO at over $30 based on the consensus analyst E.P.S. estimates of $2.02 and $2.29 for 2017 and 2018 respectively. BDGE Analyst Estimates
3. Small Cap Biotech Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 30 AKBA at $9.17-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA)
To emphasize again, I am flying by the seat of my pants and acting with my gut when selecting Lotto Tickets in the small cap biotech area. I have zero training in medicine and science.
The furthest along compound is called Vadadustat, "an oral hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) stabilizer currently in Phase 3 development for the treatment of anemia related to chronic kidney disease. Vadadustat exploits the same mechanism of action used by the body to adapt naturally to lower oxygen availability associated with a moderate increase in altitude. At higher altitudes, the body responds to lower oxygen availability with increased production of HIF, which coordinates the interdependent processes of iron mobilization and erythropoietin production to increase red blood cell production and, ultimately, improve oxygen delivery." I had to quote that information since I would not be capable of explaining it better.
Pipeline:
AKBA_Presentation at the_Needham_Conference: April_2017.pdf
Akebia Announces Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2016 Financial Results ("The company ended 2016 with cash, cash equivalents and available for sale securities of $260.3 million. The company expects cash resources, together with the timing of amounts expected to be received from collaborators, including a $33.8 million payment from Otsuka received in March of 2017, to fund the current operating plan into mid-2018.")
Akebia Announces Publication of Phase 2a Results for Vadadustat in Patients with Anemia Related to Chronic Kidney Disease (3/28/17 Press Release)
Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
Akebia and Otsuka Pharmaceutical Announce Collaboration to Develop and Commercialize Vadadustat in the U.S. (December 20, 2016 Press Release)("Akebia will receive $265 million in committed funds plus development and commercial milestones, representing a total transaction value that could exceed $1 billion. The companies intend to contribute equally to commercialization efforts and share equally all costs and revenue in the U.S., where sales of erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESAs), the current standard of care, are estimated to be $3.5 billion. Akebia will continue to lead the ongoing global Phase 3 development program for vadadustat."
2016 Annual Report (clinical trials described starting at page 4)
Why Akebia Therapeutics Inc. Tanked Today (3/7/17 Motley Fool Article)
The stock traded at over $24 back in 2014, but has been range bound near $10 since 2014: Akebia Therapeutics The market cap is about $352+M at $9 per share.
4. Small Cap Canadian E & P Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy:
A. Added 100 of SGY:CA at C$2.61 (C$1 commission):
Quote: Surge Energy Inc. (SGY:TOR)
Pink Sheet Market Quote Priced in USDs: ZPTAF
I discussed two others Surge Energy stock purchase in Item # 3A: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Observations and Sample of Recent Trades (SGY:CA-ZPTAF, VWELX, BIREF): 2/24/17/GOP and Healthcare/ Economic Nationalism = Nihilistic Protectionism
I bought the U.S. pink sheet listed ordinary shares at $2.13 using a commission free trade and the CAD priced ordinary shares at C$2.81 using my IB account where I was charged a C$1 commission.
I am buying a bundle of small cap Canadian energy E & P stocks as a speculation.
Surge does pay a monthly dividend. Surge Energy Inc. Announces Intended 15 Percent Increase to its Dividend - On Growing Production Volumes and Free Funds Flow - Feb 8, 2017
Surge Energy Inc.
Surge March 2017 Corporate Presentation.pdf
Surge Energy Inc. Announces Q4 and Year End 2016 Results; Exceeds 2016 Production Exit Rate Target; Cash Flow Per Share Up 43 Percent; Confirms March 2017 Dividend - Mar 15, 2017
I now own 300 shares. Of that number, 100 shares were bought using USDs on the U.S. pink sheet exchange. The symbol is ZPTAF. The price will generally reflect the ordinary shares price in CADs as converted into USDs. Stocks that have symbols ending in "F" are ordinary shares rather than an ADR. There is no difference between ZPTAF and and SGY:TOR other than the currency in which the shares are bought and sold. SGY will also be far more liquid than the US pink sheet traded shares.
SGY Stock Interactive Stock Charts
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
This bond was bought in a Roth IRA account. This bond was sold to the public back in August 2016.
Issuer: Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
MSFT Microsoft Corp Page at Morningstar
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus is not linked)
Prospectus
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at AAA
S & P at AAA
YTM at Total Cost (96.305) = 2.636%
Earnings Report for the Q/E 12/31/16
MSFT SEC Filings
MSFT Analyst Estimates
Microsoft sold $17B in senior unsecured notes last January:
C. Bought 1 Public Service of Colorado 2.9% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 5/15/25:
Issuer: Wholly Owned Subsidiary of Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL:NYSE)
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
XEL Xcel Energy Inc Page at Morningstar
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at A1
S & P at A
Fitch at A+
Fitch Rates Public Service Co. of Colorado's FMBs 'A+'
Moody's affirms Public Service Company of Colorado
Credit Ratings | Xcel Energy
YTM at Total Cost (99.697) = 2.942%
XEL 2016 Annual Report
D. Bought 1 Public Service E & G 2% First Mortgage Bond Maturing 8/15/2019-ROTH IRA Account:
Issuer: Operating Electric Utility wholly owned by Public Service Enterprise Group Inc (PEG)
PEG Public Service Enterprise Group Inc Page at Morningstar
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at A1
S & P at A
Fitch at A+
YTM at Total Cost (100.138 ) = 1.938%
PEG 2016 Annual Report (Public Service Electric and Gas "distributes electric energy and gas to customers within a designated service territory running diagonally across New Jersey where approximately 6.2 million people, or about 70% of New Jersey’s population resides.")
E. Bought 2 Corporate Office Properties 3.6% Senior Unsecured Bonds Maturing on 5/15/23:
Issuer: Corporate Office Properties Trust (OFC:NYSE)-A REIT
OFC Corporate Office Properties Trust Page at Morningstar
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at Baa3
Moody's affirms the ratings of Corporate Office Properties; outlook stable
S & P at BBB-
YTM at Total Cost (98.264) = 3.922%
OFC SEC Filings
OFC Analyst Estimates
2016 Annual Report (debt summary starts at page F-41)
2016 4th Quarter Report
Corporate Office Properties Trust website
I have never owned the OFC common stock. I did rent one of its equity preferred stocks for a brief period: Bought: 50 FPOPRA at $24.25, 50 OFCPRL at $24.04, 50 STK at $14.38 /Added to Vanguard Wellington (VWELX) and the Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX)/Added 50 KWN at $23.79 -Roth IRA (1/6/14 Post)
2. Continued to Pare Non-REIT Stock Allocation:
A. Sold 50+ BDGE Shares at $35.03:
Profit Snapshot: +$372.06
Quote: Bridge Bancorp Inc. (BDGE)
BDGE Analyst Estimates
BDGE Bridge Bancorp Inc page at Morningstar
2016 Annual Report
2016 4th Quarter Earnings Report (core efficiency ratio at 53.57%; NPL Ratio at .05%; NPA Ratio at .03%; Total Capital Ratio at 15%; Operating expense as a percentage of average assets at 1.88%; NIM at 3.41%; ROTE at 13.6%; coverage ratio at 2,087.35%; net charge-offs for 2016 at $400,000)
This 50 share lot was purchased at $27.65, using a commission free trade, on 10/26/16. I briefly mentioned that purchase here and discussed the bank in more detail shortly after that discussion.
I am selling regional bank stocks that have rallied after the election based on the herd opinion that Trump would cause inflation through liberal doses of stimulus. For awhile, the Bond Ghouls bought into that narrative and I mentioned the narrative as a catalyst for regional banks on 11/9/16: South Gent's Comment Blog # 4:
The consensus narrative was in vogue until mid-March, when the 10 year treasury yield closed at a 2.62% yield. The trend since that time has been for lower intermediate and long term rates as short term interest rates rise in response to the FED increasing the FF rate. The consensus opinion that net interest margin would expand under a Trump Presidency was met with the hard reality that the yield was not expanding, but was contracting again.
The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed at $43.97 on 11/8/16 and at $59.36 on 3/1/17, a gain of 35% unadjusted by dividend payments. After intermediate and long term interest rates turn back down, so did KRE. Reality was undermining the consensus opinion.
I have a favorable view of this bank and will continue to hold a 109+ share stake with an average cost per share basis of $19.05.
I will consider buying back shares somewhere south of $27.65.
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: REGIONAL BANK BASKET STRATEGY GATEWAY POST
Realized BDGE Gains To Date: $729.91 (see snapshots in Gateway Post for this topic)
One major problem for me is that the quarterly dividend has remained at $.23 per share since 2005 (payout ratio shown at 46%).
The shares are also pricey IMO at over $30 based on the consensus analyst E.P.S. estimates of $2.02 and $2.29 for 2017 and 2018 respectively. BDGE Analyst Estimates
3. Small Cap Biotech Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 30 AKBA at $9.17-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA)
To emphasize again, I am flying by the seat of my pants and acting with my gut when selecting Lotto Tickets in the small cap biotech area. I have zero training in medicine and science.
The furthest along compound is called Vadadustat, "an oral hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) stabilizer currently in Phase 3 development for the treatment of anemia related to chronic kidney disease. Vadadustat exploits the same mechanism of action used by the body to adapt naturally to lower oxygen availability associated with a moderate increase in altitude. At higher altitudes, the body responds to lower oxygen availability with increased production of HIF, which coordinates the interdependent processes of iron mobilization and erythropoietin production to increase red blood cell production and, ultimately, improve oxygen delivery." I had to quote that information since I would not be capable of explaining it better.
Pipeline:
So this stock will succeed or fail based on this compound.
AKBA_Presentation at the_Needham_Conference: April_2017.pdf
Akebia Announces Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2016 Financial Results ("The company ended 2016 with cash, cash equivalents and available for sale securities of $260.3 million. The company expects cash resources, together with the timing of amounts expected to be received from collaborators, including a $33.8 million payment from Otsuka received in March of 2017, to fund the current operating plan into mid-2018.")
Akebia Announces Publication of Phase 2a Results for Vadadustat in Patients with Anemia Related to Chronic Kidney Disease (3/28/17 Press Release)
Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
Akebia and Otsuka Pharmaceutical Announce Collaboration to Develop and Commercialize Vadadustat in the U.S. (December 20, 2016 Press Release)("Akebia will receive $265 million in committed funds plus development and commercial milestones, representing a total transaction value that could exceed $1 billion. The companies intend to contribute equally to commercialization efforts and share equally all costs and revenue in the U.S., where sales of erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESAs), the current standard of care, are estimated to be $3.5 billion. Akebia will continue to lead the ongoing global Phase 3 development program for vadadustat."
2016 Annual Report (clinical trials described starting at page 4)
Why Akebia Therapeutics Inc. Tanked Today (3/7/17 Motley Fool Article)
The stock traded at over $24 back in 2014, but has been range bound near $10 since 2014: Akebia Therapeutics The market cap is about $352+M at $9 per share.
4. Small Cap Canadian E & P Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy:
A. Added 100 of SGY:CA at C$2.61 (C$1 commission):
Quote: Surge Energy Inc. (SGY:TOR)
Pink Sheet Market Quote Priced in USDs: ZPTAF
I discussed two others Surge Energy stock purchase in Item # 3A: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Observations and Sample of Recent Trades (SGY:CA-ZPTAF, VWELX, BIREF): 2/24/17/GOP and Healthcare/ Economic Nationalism = Nihilistic Protectionism
I bought the U.S. pink sheet listed ordinary shares at $2.13 using a commission free trade and the CAD priced ordinary shares at C$2.81 using my IB account where I was charged a C$1 commission.
I am buying a bundle of small cap Canadian energy E & P stocks as a speculation.
Surge does pay a monthly dividend. Surge Energy Inc. Announces Intended 15 Percent Increase to its Dividend - On Growing Production Volumes and Free Funds Flow - Feb 8, 2017
Surge Energy Inc.
Surge March 2017 Corporate Presentation.pdf
Surge Energy Inc. Announces Q4 and Year End 2016 Results; Exceeds 2016 Production Exit Rate Target; Cash Flow Per Share Up 43 Percent; Confirms March 2017 Dividend - Mar 15, 2017
I now own 300 shares. Of that number, 100 shares were bought using USDs on the U.S. pink sheet exchange. The symbol is ZPTAF. The price will generally reflect the ordinary shares price in CADs as converted into USDs. Stocks that have symbols ending in "F" are ordinary shares rather than an ADR. There is no difference between ZPTAF and and SGY:TOR other than the currency in which the shares are bought and sold. SGY will also be far more liquid than the US pink sheet traded shares.
SGY Stock Interactive Stock Charts
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
