Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Bought 200 GRU at 5.43/ Bought GE at 15.48/Sold 100 ETW after OG was Fired/NADX Spurt/ AT & T & CBR

1. Third Quarter GDP: The BEA released its third estimate of GDP for the 3rd quarter, and it revised it down again to 2.2%. News Release: Gross Domestic Product The first estimate was 3.5% which was later revised to 2.8% in the second estimate. The consensus estimate for the third revision was for no change in the prior estimate of 2.8%.

2. AT & T (own common and bonds): AT&T raised its common stock dividend to 42 cents from 41 cents, its 26th consecutive annual raise. I have been contemplating selling 50 of the most recently bought TC containing an AT & T bond, bought in the taxable account, and investing those proceeds into common stock. The yield is close to being the same and the dividend is tax advantaged in the taxable account.

3. Ciber (owned-LT category): Ciber is one of the few failures in the LT category this year, which makes it unique. I did notice some unusual trading activity in CBR recently and a technical analysis is given in this Seeking Alpha article. Prior to looking at the chart contained in that article, I was considering about selling CBR for a small loss before the end of the year. Now, I will hold onto it to see what happens in the new year. Since my purchase at $4.5 in January 2009, CBR has had a series of disappointing earnings reports. While that is not desirable, it was not unexpected given the economic downturn. I view the 8 million share issuance at $2.75 to be worse www.sec.gov, since I view that as dilutive and I bought the shares before the dilution.

4. Marc Faber Interview in the The Economic Times: Faber appears to be gloomier than even Alan Abelson which explains why he is a member of the Barron's RoundTable. He is forecasting that the federal government's debt to GDP will balloon to over 600%, the FED will have to print money like crazy; interest rates will rise and the interest payments on the national debt will rise to between 35 to 50% of tax revenues in about 7 years. He refers to China as the emerging superpower and the U.S. as the declining one. He expects tension between China and the U.S. as China expands its influence worldwide, which it has obviously been doing for years now, and will continue to do so. He is bullish on agricultural commodities. He likes Wheat which is at a 200 year low adjusted for inflation. I do not disagree with the general direction of Faber's predictions. I do expect interest rates and inflation to become a problem, the irresponsibility of the U.S. government and its citizens will caused a weakening of the U.S. currency against the currencies of more responsible nations, and interest payments by the U.S. government will take up a larger part of the budget (35% in 7 years would not surprise me at all).

5. BOUGHT 200 GRU at $5.43 (see Disclaimer): Okay, I will take another bite on the agricultural commodities with an emphasis on wheat. I already own RJA, an ETN for agricultural commodities. GRU attempts to use futures contracts to track the MLCX Grains Index after fees and expenses. The current expense ratio is .75%.

As to the weighting, I only have the information in the prospectus, which states that the initial weightings will be:

Initial Index

Wheat 45.57%
Corn 26.54%
Soybeans 18.98%
Soybean oil 8.91

(page PS-21- https://www.elementsetn.com/pdfs/Prospectus-GRU.pdf) This is an ETN, not an ETF. This is a link to the sponsor's web site: ELEMENTS ETN Products So, this brings me in the commodity sector to 300 RJI, 150 RJA, 100 RJZ , and 200 GPU. I sold 100 of the 200 RJZ bought at $6.96. Sold 100 RJZ at $9 The initial purchase of RJI was at $5.97 and then I added more at $6.73: bought rji Bought RJI The second purchase was meant to replace GSG, a commodity ETF that had been sold. (item # 7: /Sold GSG)).

What do I know about grains, corn and soybean prices? OG only knows that he likes corn on the cob and some grains in the morning for their fiber. I can look at a chart. The price of this index has not yet rallied much with the other commodities.AB SVENSK MLCX ELEME Share Price Chart | GRU Since this security was introduced in early 2008, the high was over $11 last reached in June 2008.

6. VIX: The VIX traded below 20 for the first time today since August 29 ,2008: ^VIX: Historical Prices for CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX It closed at 19.54, down 4.64% yesterday. The VXD, the DJIA volatility index, tumbled 7.53% to 17.32: ^VXD: Summary for CBOE DJIA VOLATILITY

7. Nasdaq OMX (NDAQ) (owned): I did not see until yesterday that Goldman Sachs had upgraded NDAQ on 11/23 to buy from neutral apparently saying that its growth potential was under-appreciated by the market. Nasdaq (NDAQ) I picked up on the upgrade after watching the interview with NDAQ's CEO on Fast Money: CNBC I bought 50 in October: Bought 50 NDAQ at $19.98 I did not care for the last earnings report so I did not buy more after NDAQ slid after my purchase (see item # 4: Earnings from NDAQ NADX) The stock did slide to below 19 intra-day after that October purchase, and has since recovered to trade around $20: NDAQ: Historical Prices for The NASDAQ OMX Group

8. National Dentex (owned LT category): RB noted that it has more power than the HK and LB know and is going to say something about NADX, bought at $1.07 and $4. Buy of 50 NADX at $1.27 Buy of 50 National Dentex (NADX) When RB was asked how many shares to buy at $1.07, the RB said 10,000 and what did the LB do, the Nerd bought 50 shares of a $1.07 stock. That is no joke. Calling the LB a girlie man is an insult to girlie men worldwide, girlie man does not quite capture the essence of the LB. , RB believes the LB has no Weenie at all, certainly no apparatus attached to the weenie, need the RB say more. Isn't this NADX buy of 50 shares proof beyond a reasonable doubt? Sure, if the HK was as destitute as our Uncle Sam, it could possibly be explained. Possibly, the RB is being too harsh, engaging in hyperbole about that weenie, if HK brought in an electron microscope to take a hard look at LB on high resolution, you know, take a look down there, something of a man nature might be detected under the highest resolution possible, RB would not totally rule that out, RB added in closing.

LB responded that the HK would have been more destitute than our Uncle Sam, living under a bridge now, unable to scrap together that $60 together to buy that 50 of NADX, had the RB been charge of the trading desk in 1999. It is the LB that keeps the HK's capital position expanding, and who saved the day in 2007, with the Vix Asset Allocation Model. Just another stinking model that keeps the RB from doing its thing, making the HK richer than Bill Gates and Uncle Warren combined times a zillion zillion, enough to buy Canada and Switzerland, RB said with conviction.

Now, back to NADX before LB was so rudely interrupted by that No Wit. Lost the train of thought of why NADX is in the minutes.

Okay, NADX was up almost 22% on Tuesday to close at $10.63, on what I would consider torrid volume for this mini micro cap. Volume accelerated to over 45,000 shares, about 10 times normal volume. The only news was the filing of a succession plan. www.sec.gov The LB has been critical of the prior managment's acquisition spree, commenting many times that more attention needs to be placed on improving profits at existing facilities. More on NADX/ So maybe a few investors share my sentiments on that issue.

Early next year, when LB is at the helm of the trading desk, some of these LTs that the OG and its no wit ally RB have added will be sold for long term capital gains, in a sensible & logical fashion. Besides the entire LT category was to keep the RB entertained and less of a distraction to the LB. And the OG and the RB has taken it to extremes now. Sure the Old Goat and the no wit have had some success with this category so far at least. But even for the 16 year old Stock Jock LB, it is becoming difficult to keep up with all of these names. OG ordered the OG to decrease the names from 28 back in September Evaluation of Lottery Tickets so far in 2009 , and as you would expect, the OG probably at the urging of the ignoramus meathead miscreant, RB, have increased the number of names to 38 open positions. LB does not even want to count them anymore. LOTTERY TICKET PURCHASES: LINKS IN ONE POST LB closes one and then OG buys two.

OG thinks the LB needs to help out Uncle Sam during its turn as HT, everybody needs to chip end before the first of the year so that Uncle will not have to borrow more than a trillion dollars for the fiscal year ending in September 2010. And OG wants the LB to know that the RB is embarrassed to be associated with the LB.

9. Added to GE at 15.48 (see disclaimer): The OG is feeling sorry for GE. Slashed its dividend by almost 70% when other American industrials have been raising their dividends. Having even an old guy in the SUV Capital questioning the vaunted management expertise at the company, and with good reason. GE Capital appears to have been caught with its pants down as the world entered a recession. But, the OG is a creature of ritual. One ritual is to buy a few shares of GE whenever the spirt moves him. So far, including the brokerage commission (total cost figures shown), the following shares were bought in 2009: 50 shares at 12.54 on 1/23; 30 shares at 11.16 on 2/18; 30 shares at 12.02 on 6/24; and 40 shares today at 15.48 (excluding commission on that one). Dividends are being reinvested to buy additional shares. I believe that GE is ex dividend on Wednesday: GE Stock Quote - General Electric Co

10. Sold 100 ETW at $14.18 (see disclaimer): This is about 1/5th of the current holdings in the taxable account. Those 100 shares were the highest cost shares and were sold by the LB pursuant to instructions from HK to decrease the amount of accrued charitable contributions made in 2009 by the OG to our destitute Uncle Sam by selling a boatload of securities at short term capital gains, occurring mostly LB noted when the OG had the shakes rather than the frequently announced purpose of contributing to Uncle Sam in its hour of need.

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