Economy:
Home prices stay high, up 6.2% from a year earlier, Case-Shiller shows - MarketWatch
Pending Home Sales Inch Up 0.2 Percent in November | www.nar.realtor
Home prices stay high, up 6.2% from a year earlier, Case-Shiller shows - MarketWatch
Pending Home Sales Inch Up 0.2 Percent in November | www.nar.realtor
The GOP tax overhaul kept this $1,300 tax break for seniors (most retirees need that extra standard deduction)
Trump officials preparing for harder 'America first' line on China - The Washington Post
Incomes Grew After Past Tax Cuts, but Guess Whose - The New York Times ("those in the bottom half of the income pile — income actually shrank on Reagan’s watch. In 1980, the year he was elected, they earned $16,371 a year on average, in today’s dollars, according to the World Wealth and Income Database. By 1988, Reagan’s last year in office, they had to make do with $16,268.")
Nashville TN Home Prices & Home Values | Zillow (up 12.3%-1 year change)
Incomes Grew After Past Tax Cuts, but Guess Whose - The New York Times ("those in the bottom half of the income pile — income actually shrank on Reagan’s watch. In 1980, the year he was elected, they earned $16,371 a year on average, in today’s dollars, according to the World Wealth and Income Database. By 1988, Reagan’s last year in office, they had to make do with $16,268.")
Nashville TN Home Prices & Home Values | Zillow (up 12.3%-1 year change)
++++++++
Market Commentary and Markets:
2017:
Nasdaq Index +28%
S & P 500 Index +19%
DJIA +25%
VIX at 11.04 Stable Vix Pattern (Vix Asset Allocation Model)
If markets start out next year with a pop, I may do some selling of short term holdings that were bought as a trade. It remains to be seen whether other individual traders delayed taking profits until 2018 due to somewhat lower taxes on short term profits.
T. Rowe Price tech-fund manager says cloud stocks’ big gains are yet to come - MarketWatch
Individual stock selections may work better than a cloud ETF. For those who do not want to pick a stock, there is the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY), which I have owned in the past.
Analysts Cut iPhone X Shipment Forecasts, Citing Lukewarm Demand - Bloomberg
China to Overtake U.S. Economy by 2032 as Asian Might Builds - Bloomberg
I do not buy individual stocks issued by companies domiciled in mainland China. I have bought individual stocks issued by companies based in Hong Kong, but do not have any current positions.
I do own two mutual funds that own stocks issued by companies located in China.
MCDFX Matthews China Dividend Investor Fund
MAPTX Matthews Pacific Tiger Investor Fund
+++++++
Interest Rates and The Compression of the Yield Curve:
Flattening U.S. Yield Curve Nears Decade Lows in Final 2017 Push - Bloomberg
Bond Giants Lay Out Their Top Trades for 2018 - Bloomberg
As the FED increased the Federal Funds rate by .75% this year, and 1% since the December 2016 meeting, the ten year treasury yield ended 2017 at 2.43%, having closed out 2016 at 2.45%. 2017 Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
The flattening of the yield curve is a major negative for regional banks. Further the flattening has caused me to reallocate out of intermediate term bonds into short term securities.
The narrowing yield spread is highlighted by a recent Goldman Sachs SU bond purchase which has not yet been discussed here. I bought 2 Goldman Sachs 2.3% SU bonds maturing on 12/13/19 at a total cost of 99.957, creating a YTM of 2.322%. Bond Detail This bond closed last Friday at 99.83. A 3.5% GS SU bond maturing on 12/15/27 closed last Friday at par value. Bond Detail So extending the maturity by about 8 years increases my yield by only 1.178%. In the past decade, it made some sense to go further out in time since short term rates were near zero and higher quality intermediate term bonds had a yield advantage and provided some capital gain opportunities. The situation is different now. Short term rates are rising which causes the intermediate term yield advantage to shrink and capital gains are hard to generate and may soon lead to realized or unrealized capital losses.
++++++++
Trump:
"You all just got a lot richer," Trump tells friends, referencing tax overhaul - CBS News; Trump Tells Rich Mar-a-Lago Friends “You All Just Got a Lot Richer” After Tax Bill
Mar-a-Lago membership fee doubles to $200,000 (Trump increased the fee from $100K to $200K after the election. Those who wish to lobby him personally during his frequent visits to his resort would view that additional $100K fee to be worth that direct access.)
In his own way, Trump wished CNN and the FBI Merry Christmas with two of his Christmas tweets.
In a Christmas Eve Tweet, there was a photo of Donald riding in a limousine, with that standard smug and arrogant look, with a raised shoe showing CNN's blood.
He even thanked on Christmas Eve the Deputy Director of the FBI for his 20+ years of government service:
He really wanted to send Deputy Director McCabe several of his Merry Christmas salutations:
The GOP is engaged in repeated attacks on the FBI for the sole purpose of devaluing their Russian investigation and to protect Trump.
Trump has proven beyond doubt how easy it is for a Demagogue to manipulate tens of millions with demonstrably false statements and to undermine the foundations of a properly functioning Democracy.
How Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) turned the Republican tax bill away from populism - The Washington Post I regard Toomey as a Trump Clone. He was re-elected in 2016.
Trump would very much like to punish Amazon since Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post and the WP persistently points out Trump's many undesirable characteristics such as lying. (e.g. In a 30-minute interview, President Trump made 24 false or misleading claims - The Washington Post or one every 75 seconds; Trump sounded delusional in his New York Times interview: CNBC)
This is just an idiotic statement from Donald. The U.S. Post Office does not deliver many packages for Amazon, usually just small packages that would fit in a mailbox like a DVD. Most of the packages are delivered by U.P.S. or increasingly to me by Amazon's own delivery service. Some third party sellers use Federal Express. If the U.S.P.S. raised prices as Donald suggested, they would lose volume from Amazon and other shippers and would be in worst shape than it is now.
This tweet and countless others demonstrate Donald's strong authoritarian impulses and his persistent and increasingly successful efforts to undermine the pillars of a properly functioning Democracy. It is unfortunate that millions support his efforts.
++++++++
Trump:
"You all just got a lot richer," Trump tells friends, referencing tax overhaul - CBS News; Trump Tells Rich Mar-a-Lago Friends “You All Just Got a Lot Richer” After Tax Bill
Mar-a-Lago membership fee doubles to $200,000 (Trump increased the fee from $100K to $200K after the election. Those who wish to lobby him personally during his frequent visits to his resort would view that additional $100K fee to be worth that direct access.)
In his own way, Trump wished CNN and the FBI Merry Christmas with two of his Christmas tweets.
He even thanked on Christmas Eve the Deputy Director of the FBI for his 20+ years of government service:
He really wanted to send Deputy Director McCabe several of his Merry Christmas salutations:
The GOP is engaged in repeated attacks on the FBI for the sole purpose of devaluing their Russian investigation and to protect Trump.
Trump has proven beyond doubt how easy it is for a Demagogue to manipulate tens of millions with demonstrably false statements and to undermine the foundations of a properly functioning Democracy.
How Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) turned the Republican tax bill away from populism - The Washington Post I regard Toomey as a Trump Clone. He was re-elected in 2016.
Trump would very much like to punish Amazon since Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post and the WP persistently points out Trump's many undesirable characteristics such as lying. (e.g. In a 30-minute interview, President Trump made 24 false or misleading claims - The Washington Post or one every 75 seconds; Trump sounded delusional in his New York Times interview: CNBC)
This is just an idiotic statement from Donald. The U.S. Post Office does not deliver many packages for Amazon, usually just small packages that would fit in a mailbox like a DVD. Most of the packages are delivered by U.P.S. or increasingly to me by Amazon's own delivery service. Some third party sellers use Federal Express. If the U.S.P.S. raised prices as Donald suggested, they would lose volume from Amazon and other shippers and would be in worst shape than it is now.
This tweet and countless others demonstrate Donald's strong authoritarian impulses and his persistent and increasingly successful efforts to undermine the pillars of a properly functioning Democracy. It is unfortunate that millions support his efforts.
++++++++
1. Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy:
A. Pared MPW-Sold 50 at $14.05-Used Commission Free Trade:
Two Year History This Account:
Using FIFO accounting, I sold the highest cost lot bought at $12.84+ (used commission free trade). I reinvested one dividend and have now quit since I would not make an open market purchase at the current price. I am a seller at >$14.
MPW has a bad habit of selling stock when the price peeks over $14. The five year chart also reveals an inability to stay over that price for long. MPW Chart A price over $15 will trigger an automatic sell.
Closing Price Day of Trade (12/15/17): MPW $13.99 0.23 1.67%: Medical Properties Trust, Inc.
The enthusiasm that day was apparently based on JPM upgrading MPW from an underweight to an equal weight.
Profit Snapshot: +$60.37
Item # 5.A. Reinitiated Position in MPW with a 50 Share Buy at $12.85 (8/3/2017 Post)
I will also receive the quarterly dividend for this 50 share lot that went ex dividend a few days prior to selling the lot.
Trading Profits To Date: $1,395.2 (prior at $1,334.83)
Last Discussed a Purchase: Item # 2.A. Bought 50 MPW at $12.66 (8/29/17 Post)
Last Sell: Item # 3 Sold 50 MPW at $13.93 (5/15/17 Post)(post contains links to prior discussions)
Dividends: Quarterly at $.24 per share Dividend History-Medical Properties Trust (that link provides information on the classification of dividends. There was some ROC support in 2016)
Last Earnings Report: Medical Properties Trust, Inc. Reports Third Quarter Results
When providing investors with a forecast, MPW uses "normalized funds from operations" rather than AFFO:
Medical Properties Trust's (MPW) CEO Edward Aldag on Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
Other Press Releases:
Medical Properties Trust Transitions Adeptus Leases to UCHealth (12/7/17 Press Release)
Medical Properties Trust Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock (4/25/17 Press Release)
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. Completes $1.4 Billion Investment in Eleven IASIS Hospitals Now Operated by Steward Health Care (9/29/17 Press Release)
Medical Properties Trust Announces Upsizing and Pricing of $1.4 Billion of 5.000% Senior Notes Due 2027 (9/7/17 Press Release)
2. Small Ball in REGIONAL BANK BASKET STRATEGY:
A. Bought 50 TRST at $9.2-Used Commission Free Trade:
Quote: Trustco Bank Corp. (TRST)
"TrustCo Bank Corp NY is a $4.9 billion savings and loan holding company and through its subsidiary, Trustco Bank, operated 144 offices in New York, New Jersey, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Florida at September 30, 2017."
Only one analyst provides an E.P.S. estimate. TRST Analyst Estimates The estimate for 2018 is $.63, up from $.5 this year. I do not know whether the 2018 includes an increase in net income resulting from a lower tax rate. The last quarterly E.P.S. was $.131 or $.524 annually at that rate. As noted below E.P.S. increased by 15% Y-O-Y in the third quarter.
Recent Earnings Report: 2017 Third Quarter SEC Filed Press Release
Net income increased 15% to $12.596M compared to $10.93M in the 2016 third quarter. E.P.S. increased to $.131 from $.114.
The efficiency ratio is good at 52.79%.
The coverage ratio is at 180%. I view any number over 100% as good when making an initial purchase.
The NPL and NPA ratios are below average levels for U.S. banks.
Nonperforming Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans for all U.S. Banks-St. Louis Fed
ROA and ROE are close to average national numbers, but did increase Y-O-Y.
Return on Average Assets for all U.S. Banks-St. Louis Fed
Return on Average Equity for all U.S. Banks-St. Louis Fed
The dividend payout ratio is high at 52.82%. When over 50%, I would not view it as prudent to raise the dividend. With a major decrease in its tax rate, the bank may be in a position to increase the dividend in 2018 or 2019.
Loans were up: "Average loans were up $171.0 million or 5.1% in the third quarter of 2017 over the same period in 2016."
Dividends: The quarterly rate has been stuck at $.065625 per share since the 2009 third quarter. The dividend was reduced to that level from $.11 per share. Both the dividend slash and the lack of any increase thereafter are both major negatives IMO.
Assuming a continuation of $.06562, which results in an annual rate of $.2625 per share, the dividend yield at a total cost of $9.2 per share is about 2.85%.
Chart: Over the past month through 12/22/17 (date of purchase), TRST had gained .55% compared to KRE's +7.23%. TRST did have a spike in price that ended on 11/29/17. TRST Stock Chart
Trading Profits to Date: $934.27 (snapshots at REGIONAL BANK BASKET STRATEGY GATEWAY POST)
Effective Tax Rate: This is another minor trade made primarily on the new tax law and reasonably anticipated favorable changes in bank regulation.
Latest Quarter: Page 56 10-Q
Annual:
Sourced at Page 27 Exhibit 13 to 10-K
Discussions of Most Prior Trades Linked Here: Sold 315+ TRST at $6.92 (1/11/15 Post)-Item # 2. Sold 100 TRST at $6.69: Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 7/26/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha-Item # 2. Bought 100 TRST at $5.9: Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 9/4/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
2015 Agreement with the Office of the Comptroller:
In the last linked post from SA, I discussed a problem that had knocked the share price down and involved an agreement reached with TRST's primary regulator (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency).
Quote from 9/14/15 Post
"The earnings were okay, but the bank announced that its regulator found issues in need of repair that would cost an annual estimated $2.5 to $5M to fix according to TRST. The after tax impact on net income would be less depending on TRST's tax rate. In addition to the after tax impact on net income, the market is assuming that the additional annual costs can not be offset, at least in part, by cutting operating costs elsewhere. . .. I would estimate that this annualized additional cost issue has cut the price from $6.81 to $6.05 or $.76 per share, with the market meltdown contributing to the remaining decline. When I multiply $.76 by the number of shares outstanding as of 6/30/15 which was 95.132M, the net market capitalization lost was about $72.3 million for an annualized increased expenditure between $2.5 to $5m, assuming TRST's management is being forthcoming in its future estimates."
End of Quote
The bank is still subject to requirements of that agreement:
Page 35 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/17
Capital Ratios are good (sourced from page 57 10-Q):
3. Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Sold 2 SVB Financial 3.5% SU Bonds Maturing on 1/29/25:
Profit Snapshot: +$13.5
Issuer: SVB Financial Group (SIVB)
SIVB Analyst Estimates
Finra Page: Bond Detail
Sold at 100.416
YTM Then at 3.433%
Current Yield at 3.486%
Bought at a TC of 99.941
Item #1.A.
YTM Then at 3.553%
Current Yield at 3.502%
B. Sold 2 Old Republic 3.875% SU Bonds Maturing on 8/26/26:
Profit Snapshot: +$18.6
Issuer: Old Republic International Corp. (ORI)
ORI Analyst Estimates
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Credit Ratings:
Sold at 101.074
YTM Then at 3.741%
Current Yield at 3.834%
Net at 100.974 (adjusted for $2 commission/$1 per bond)
Bought at a TC of 99.944
Item # 2.C.
YTM at TC Then at 3.882%
Current Yield at 3.88%
A. Sold 2 SVB Financial 3.5% SU Bonds Maturing on 1/29/25:
Profit Snapshot: +$13.5
Issuer: SVB Financial Group (SIVB)
SIVB Analyst Estimates
Finra Page: Bond Detail
Sold at 100.416
YTM Then at 3.433%
Current Yield at 3.486%
Bought at a TC of 99.941
Item #1.A.
YTM Then at 3.553%
Current Yield at 3.502%
B. Sold 2 Old Republic 3.875% SU Bonds Maturing on 8/26/26:
Profit Snapshot: +$18.6
Issuer: Old Republic International Corp. (ORI)
ORI Analyst Estimates
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Credit Ratings:
YTM Then at 3.741%
Current Yield at 3.834%
Net at 100.974 (adjusted for $2 commission/$1 per bond)
Bought at a TC of 99.944
Item # 2.C.
YTM at TC Then at 3.882%
Current Yield at 3.88%
4. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 1 Washington Federal 1.4% CD (monthly interest) Maturing on 6/20/18 (6 month CD):
B. Bought 1 Bank of China 1.35% CD Maturing on 3/15/18 (3 month CD):
C. Added 1 Royal Bank of Canada 1.625% SU Bond Maturing on 4/15/19:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail
Issuer: Royal Bank of Canada (RY)
RY Analyst Estimates
Credit Ratings:
Debt Investors
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.65
YTM at TC = 1.887%
Current Yield at TC = 1.63%
I now own 3 bonds.
I have 2 RY 1.5% bonds maturing on 1/16/2018:
D. Bought 3 BNY Mellon CDs-Staggered Maturities:
One 1.3% CD Maturing on 3/12/2018
Two 1.4% CDs Maturing on 5/11/2018
Issuer: Bank of New York Mellon (BK)
BK Analyst Estimates
BNY Mellon Reports Third Quarter Earnings Of $983 Million Or $0.94 Per Common Share
E. Bought 1 Citigroup 2.05% SU Bond Maturing on 6/7/19:
FINRA PAGE: Bond Detail
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at Baa1
S & P at BBB+
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.847
YTM at TC = 2.154%
Current Yield at TC = 2.053%
F. Bought 2 Cisco 1.6% SU Bonds Maturing on 2/28/19:
Finra Page: Bond Detail
Issuer: Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO Analyst Estimates
Cisco Reports First Quarter Earnings (Q/E 10/28/17)
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.771
YTM at Total Cost = 1.789%
Current Yield at TC = 1.604%
I also own 50 Cisco common shares.
G. ADDED 1 Anheuser 1.9% SU Bond Maturing on 2/1/19:
Bought at a TC of 99.961
YTM then at 1.934%
This brings me up to 3 bonds as of the purchase date. I am basically replacing the 4 BUD 1.25% SU bonds that were redeemed early by the issuer. Item # 4.D.
5. Added $250 to the T. Rowe Price Financial Services Fund (PRISX):
This fund paid a year end distribution of $1.31 per share which I took in cash as with all other owned Price stock funds. PRISX T. Rowe Price Financial Services Fund
T. Rowe Price Financial Services Fund (PRISX) Top Portfolio Holdings
I have decided to reinvest only $500 of the $8.5K+ in cash dividends received in December from my T. Rowe Price stock mutual funds. The total cash dividends was higher than my previous estimate due to the higher than expected dividend amount paid by the T Rowe Price Spectrum Growth Fund (PRSGX)($1.96 per share)
There will be a lot of noise relating to bank earnings due to tax reform. The large banks will be hit with a mandatory repatriation tax on accumulated foreign earnings that have not been repatriated back to the U.S. Those banks and regional banks will be impacted in various ways by the lowering of the corporate tax rate.
While I may discuss in some detail later the impact on revaluing "deferred tax assets" and "deferred tax liabilities" due to the reduction to 21%, the banks with deferred tax assets will be taking a charge and those with deferred tax liabilities will be recording a gain.
One of the few banks with deferred tax liabilities is NYCB which will record an approximate $25M gain due to revaluation of those liabilities in the 4th quarter. In other words, the reduction in the tax rate means that this bank will owe less in future tax liabilities that are currently in deferral for one reason or another. New York Community Bancorp, Inc. Announces Benefits from Enactment of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act This benefit will be accretive to the bank's capital ratios. I do not yet understand why NYCB is predicting a 27% effective tax rate in 2018.
Old National, a regional bank with a tax deferred asset, will record a charge since that asset will be worth less at a lower tax rate. Old National Bancorp (Form: 8-K)(" The Company performed an analysis to determine the impact of the revaluation of the deferred tax asset using its September 30, 2017 balance of $138.0 million and included an estimate of the impact from the recently acquired Anchor Bancorp, Inc.’s ("Anchor") deferred tax position. It is estimated that the value of the deferred tax asset will be reduced by approximately $41 million (including the impact of Anchor), less the amount of tax deferral utilized in the fourth quarter. Under this methodology, the estimated fourth quarter earnings impact would be approximately ($0.28) per share and the estimated tangible book value impact would be approximately ($0.27) per share based on estimated fourth quarter weighted average diluted shares of approximately 147 million and total shares outstanding of approximately 152 million at year end.")
I do own NYCB, but no longer own ONB. I will consider buying back ONB on a decline below $17. I last eliminated my position by selling 50 shares at $18.55: Item 2.A. (2/27/17 Post)
I believe that sophisticated investors will simply ignore those one time accounting benefits and charges related to revaluing deferred tax assets and liabilities.
Goldman Sachs estimated that the repatriation tax and the revaluation of its deferred tax assets will result in about a $5B charge. The repatriation tax will account for about 2/3 of that charge. Goldman taking $5 billion hit in Q4 earnings from new tax law Regional bank by and large would not have any foreign earnings to repatriate.
The same issues apply to non-financial multinationals: Amgen estimates its U.S. tax bill at over $6 billion as it repatriates cash; Form 8-K
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
