Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: (GMTA, MPW, RMT)

Economic Reports:

A. Automobile Sales: Trending Down:

U.S. car sales continue to skid, drop 5.7% in July - LA Times

AutoNation earnings slide 21% as sales slow - MarketWatch

July 2017 Auto Sales: A Slow Slide, As Expected | Automobile Magazine

B. ADP July Private Sector Jobs Report:

+178K vs. 173K Consensus

June Revised to 191K from 158K

ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-July2017-Final-Press-Release.pdf
Private-sector continues to see strong job gains in July, ADP says - MarketWatch

C. Personal Consumption Expenditures ("PCE") for June 2017:

The government's Personal Income and Outlays Report for June reinforced the downward trend in consumer expenditures compared to 2016. PCE increased .1 in June. Real PCE was flat with the prior month.

The numbers for the first six months of this year are materially weaker than the comparable period in 2016 and the last six months of 2016.

% Change from Preceding Period
Table 13, Line 17 News Release.pdf

REAL PCE

June-December 2016

+.4%, +.2%, +.1%, +.5%, +.1% +.3%, +.4%

January-June 2017

-.1%, 0, .7%, .1%, .2%, 0

D. ISM Services PMI: Marked Slowdown in July:

The ISM's non-manufacturing index fell to a reading of 53.9 last month, the lowest since August 2016, from 57.4 in June. ISM - ISM Report - July 2017 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

The new orders component decline to 55.1 from 60.5.  The employment component declined from 55.8 to 53.6.

E.  S & P/Experian Consumer Composite Default Index Drops to 1 year Low in June

The Bond Ghouls and Currency Dopers do not see a robust economy but a weakening one.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note -MarketWatch
DXY Charts - U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Interactive Chart
BBDXY Quote - Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index - Bloomberg Markets

++++++

Trump dictated son’s misleading statement on meeting with Russian lawyer - The Washington Post

According to that report, Trump deliberately tried to mislead the public about the reasons for that meeting that was called specifically to receive damaging information about Hillary from the Russians.

Since Don Jr.'s emails were released by him, I have listened to a number of Trump voters claim there was no proof of collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign.

The emails show an unmistakable intent to collude.

Quote From First Email Sent to Donald Trump Jr.:

Good morning

Emin just called and asked me to contact you with something very interesting.

The Crown prosecutor of Russia met with his father Aras this morning and in their meeting offered to provide the Trump campaign with some official documents and information that would incriminate Hillary and her dealings with Russia and would be very useful to your father.

This is obviously very high level and sensitive information but is part of Russia and its government's support for Mr. Trump - helped along by Aras and Emin.

What do you think is the best way to handle this information and would you be able to speak to Emin about it directly?

I can also send this info to your father via Rhona, but it is ultra sensitive so wanted to send to you first.

Best

Rob Goldstone   (emphasis added)

Donald Trump's Reply:

Translation: I can't wait to get Russia's help in the election, so my Daddy can defeat Crooked Hillary. 

Read the Emails on Donald Trump Jr.’s Russia Meeting - The New York Times

In the President's Alternate Reality Universe, the subject of the meeting was "not a campaign issue" even though that is explicitly why the meeting was called: 

Prior to the publication of this WP article, Trump's personal attorney, Jay Sekulow, made the following statements: 

"CHUCK TODD: You were very careful to say the president didn’t draft the statement. That isn’t what I asked. Did the president get a heads-up on the statement? Did he sign off on the statement? Was he asked to read the statement before it was given to the New York Times on Air Force One?

SEKULOW: No, I mean, I can’t say whether the president was told the statement was going to be coming from his son on that. I didn’t have that conversation and let me say this — but I do want to be clear — that the president was not involved in the drafting of the statement and did not issue the statement. It came from Donald Trump Jr. So that’s what I can tell you because that’s what we know. And Donald Trump Jr. has said the same thing. That it was, in fact, from him and I believe it was his lawyer was in consultation — I’m sure his lawyer was in consultation."(emphasis added)

Sourced Meet the Press - July 16, 2017 - NBC News

Sekulow claimed that the WP story was inaccurate but would not answer specific questions presented by the WP: “Apart from being of no consequence, the characterizations are misinformed, inaccurate, and not pertinent.” 

Trump's new Press Secretary had a different take than Mr. Sekulow:  Trump 'weighed in' on Don Jr.'s statement about meeting Russian lawyer, Sanders says - MarketWatch There is no way to reconcile Mr. Sekulow's comment that the "president was not involved in the drafting of the statement" with either the Post story or the White House's admission that Trump "weighed in".  

++++

The Heavy Weight Champion of Chaos-The One and Only Mr. Donald Trump, President of the United States:

What will historians say in a 100 years?    

The Mooch lasted 10 days as Trump's Communications Director, the shortest stint in U.S. history, but that is not unusual in Trump's first few months as President. Trump denies there is chaos.   

It looks like the Mooch's talents, whatever they may be other than mooching of course, were not fully appreciated by John Kelly, the newly installed Chief of Staff and a retired 4 star Marine general. Or maybe, the Mooch did not tell Donald that he loved him more than fifty times. 

Kelly probably saw little humor in the Mooch's off-color remarks including his somewhat dubious claim about an anatomically impossible task.   

Anthony Scaramucci out as WH communications director - CNN 
Harvard accidentally lists Scaramucci as dead in alumni directory - CBS News

I looked at Mooch's hedge fund performance. His fund is known as Skybridge Multi-Advisor HF Portfolios G. Mooch just selected other hedge funds to own in his fund. He is attempting to sell his hedge fund to a Chinese company called HNA Group, a mysterious private company: The Conglomerate That Troubles China - Bloomberg

The five year total return through 7/31/17 was 36.81%. Barron's Market Lab Table - Barrons.com The five year total return of SPY through 7/31/17 was 98.72%. DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel The Vanguard Star Fund (VGSTX), a fund of funds which includes a significant allocation to bond funds, had an annualized total return of 9.61% over the same period which handily beats the 36.81% total return for that Skybridge fund. Vanguard Star Fund Investor Shares (VGSTX) Fund Performance and Returns

Apparently, General Kelly did not agree with Trump's decision to fire Comey who Trump called a nut job when conversing about the matter with the Russians.

The House Republicans want the Justice Department to hire a special prosecutor to investigate Comey who provided unfavorable testimony about the GOP's Leader. The GOP and their apparatchiks will go after anyone providing damaging testimony about President Donald. 

Kelly called Comey to express anger over firing, sources say - CNN 

Maybe the General will be able to damp down some on the lunacy and chaos that have been the dominant traits that blast out of the Trump White House daily.   

Trump's approval rating slumps to new low - CBS News

National (US) Poll - August 2, 2017 - Trump Drops To New Low, Close | Quinnipiac University Connecticut (62% say Trump is not honest; so SAD that the number is not 100%) 

Who plays more golf: Donald Trump or Barack Obama? | PolitiFact

Trump Says U.S. 'Losing' Afghan War in Tense Meeting With Generals - NBC News ("Over nearly two hours in the situation room, Trump complained about NATO allies, inquired about the United States getting a piece of Afghan’s mineral wealth and repeatedly said the top U.S. general there should be fired. . . . The focus on the minerals was reminiscent of Trump's comments early into his presidency when he lamented that the U.S. didn't take Iraq's oil when the majority of forces departed the country in 2011.")  

Sanders forced to revise Trump's claim about conversations with heads of Boy Scouts, Mexico - CBS News

Transcript shows Trump asked Pena Nieto to stop saying Mexico wouldn’t pay for wall - MarketWatch (WHY, so Trump could keep telling the True Believers that Mexico would pay for the wall)

++++++++

More Than Disgusting If True: 

Lawsuit: Fox News concocted Seth Rich story with oversight from White House - Aug. 1, 2017

Suit alleges Trump reviewed draft of Fox story about murdered DNC aide Seth Rich - MarketWatch

Seth Rich Case: Fox News Made Fake News to Protect Trump, Lawsuit Alleges - NBC News

DNC Staffer's Murder Draws Fresh Conspiracy Theories - NBC News

A copy of the complaint is available at Scribd: Fox Lawsuit 

Cuomo grills Butowsky over retracted story

Fox concocted a story that a DNC staffer leaked their emails to Wiki and was - thereafter-  murdered by the Democrats to shut him up. The purpose of this particular Fox reality creation was to come up with an alternative to the consensus opinion formed by the intelligence agencies that Russia interfered in the U.S. election to help Donald.

++++++++

1. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy: 

A. Bought 3 Fidelity National 1.15% CDs (monthly interest) Maturing on 10/27/17 (3 month CD):

B. Bought 2 Washington Federal Bank 1.3% CDs (monthly interest) Maturing on 2/12/18 (6 month CD): 

C. Bought 2 Blue Hills 1.2% CDs Maturing on 11/30/17 (4 month CD):

D. Bought 2 Merrick Bank 1.45% CDs (monthly interest) Maturing on 7/27/18 (1 Year CD):

E. Bought 3 Peoples National Bank 1.05% CDs Maturing 9/11/2017 (one month CDs): 

$12K Inflow into Short Term Bond/CD Basket

Hopefully short term rates will continue to meander up. 

2. Long Term Bond Basket Strategy: 

A. Sold 50 GMTA at $26.69 (used Commission Free Trade):

Profit Snapshot: +$222.84

This lot was purchased at $22.23 (11/14/2016).

Quote: GATX Corp. 5.625% Senior Notes due 2066 (GMTA)

GMTA is an exchange traded senior baby bond that matures in 2066 unless redeemed earlier at the issuer's option. The issuer may call on or after 5/30/21 Prospectus The optional redemption right and the potentially very long duration creates asymmetric interest rate that disfavors the bond owner and is lopsidedly in the issuer's favor.

Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
Baby Bonds - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Exchange Traded Bonds: New Gateway Post

My last transaction was to sell 40 shares at $25.53: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 2.A.  (profit snapshot of $124.75). Prior to that sell, I sold 20 shares using a commission free trade at $25.13 that had been purchased at $22.95: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 3.A.

I no longer have a position and will simply wait for a significant price downdraft before considering a new purchase.

3. Continued to Pare Stock Allocation:

A. Sold 274+ Shares of RMT at $8.9:

Profit Snapshot: +$45.41

Quote: Royce Micro-Cap Trust Inc. (RMT)

I took a loss of $49.21 on a 200 share lot purchased on 7/15/15 and a $64.48 profit on a 50 share bought at $7.61 total cost per share. I realized also a gain on all shares purchased with reinvested dividends but did not reinvest the quarterly dividends paid in March and June of this year and the $.61 per share distribution made in December 2015.

Royce Micro-Cap Trust (RMT)

This transaction eliminates RMT from my portfolio. I will consider buying back shares when and if the discount to net asset value per share is greater than 15% and after a 20% correction in the Russell 2000.

Closing Data Date of Trade: 
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share:  $9.91
Closing Market Price: $8.9
Discount:  -10.64% 
Average Discounts: 
1 Year: -13.84%
3 Years: -13.4%
5 Years: -12.85%

This fund was frequently trading at over a 15% discount in the 2016 4th quarter and occasionally over 16%. 

RMT Royce Micro Cap Trust, closed-end fund summary - CEF Connect 

RMT Trading Profits to Date: $2,461.36

Last Sell Transaction:  Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item 3.A. 

2016 Annual Report 
RMT Royce Micro Cap Trust CEF Page at Morningstar 
SEC Filings for Royce Micro-Cap Trust

Item # 2 Sold 433+ RMT at $12.76-Average Cost Per Share $7.91 (snapshot of profit=+$2,057.88 including profits for all shares bought with reinvested dividends)

Earlier in 2014, I sold 126 RMT shares bought with dividends and realized a $149.91 profit on those shares. Item # 6 Sold Taxable Account: 126 RMT at $12.6 (7/12/14 Post)

I will frequently harvest profits in shares bought with dividends in order to improve the dividend yield of those distributions. Many investors may prefer to leave matters alone.

Snapshots of RMT round-trip prior to 7/28/15 can be found in the Appendix section to this post: Update On Closed End Fund Basket Strategy As Of 7/28/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

Links to Some Prior Discussions: 

Item # 1. Added 100 RMT at $7.77: Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 8/28/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

Item # 1. Averaged Down-Added 100 RMT at $7.71: Update For CEF Basket Strategy As Of 11/18/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha

RMT Total Returns with Dividends Reinvested: Feast and Famine

10/9/2007 to 3/9/2009: -69.33%

3/10/2009 to 12/31/14: +348.38% or an average annualized total return of 29.45%

1/1/15 to 12/30/15:  -16.64%

1/1/16 to 7/21/17: +40.49%

4. Intermediate Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy: 

A. Bought 2 WFC 1.85% CDs (monthly interest) Maturing on 7/28/20 (3 year CDs): 

This CD was at the tail end of my three year period for the short term ladder.


5. Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Gateway Post: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy: 

On a net basis, I am significantly reducing my exposure to equity REITs and have adopted a more aggressive trading posture. 

The primary concerns are (1) valuations for most of them; (2) a potential downdraft in major stock indexes which will take REIT stocks down as well; and/or (3) a significant move up in interest rates. I have also trimmed Canadian REITs recently, partly due due to the rise in the CAD/USD that allowed me to sell some position in my Fidelity account profitably and to immediately convert the proceeds into USDs as I transition away from Fidelity. 

A. Reinitiated Taxable Account Position in MPW with a 50 Share Buy at $12.85 (used commission free trade):

Closing Price Day of Purchase (7/24/17): MPW $12.88 -$0.22 -1.68% 

MPW Stock Price - Medical Properties Trust Inc. 
Medical Properties Trust Website

Medical Properties Trust, Inc. Reports First Quarter Results:

Note the significant non-cash revenue item included in normalized FFO. At least MPW correctly makes the straight line rent adjustment to FFO in order to arrive at AFFO which is more than I can say for Omega Healthcare (OHI).

The current quarterly dividend is $.24 per share. At that rate, the dividend yield is about 7.47%.

My last transaction was to sell 50 shares at $13.93: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 3 (5/15/17 Post) That post contains several links to prior discussions. 

Since I exited my position, MPW's underwriters sold to the public $43+M shares at $13.25, with the proceeds going to fund the cash portion of MPW's acquisitions of eight hospitals from Steward Health Care Systems, 2 hospitals from Alecto Healthcare, and 2 hospitals from RCCH Healthcare. Prospectus; Medical Properties Trust Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock  

Medical Properties Trust, Inc. to Invest $1.4 Billion in Ten Acute Care Hospitals and One Behavioral Health Facility (MPW "has signed definitive agreements to acquire the real estate interests of ten acute care hospitals and one behavioral health facility currently operated by IASIS Healthcare (“IASIS”) and to be operated by Steward Health Care System LLC (“Steward”) when the transaction is completed. The $1.4 billion real estate transaction will be immediately accretive to normalized FFO per share by approximately $0.10 (and to net income by $0.05 per share) in 2018 assuming all debt financing. Steward and IASIS separately announced a simultaneous merger transaction, completion of which is a condition of MPT’s investment.")

The company ran into some problems with one of its tenants as described in this press release: Medical Properties Trust, Inc. Describes Plans for Restructuring of Adeptus Health, Inc. Leases 

MPW is a serial acquirer and its management and Board can be properly classified as empire builders. One problem with that approach is that MPW will often do a big deal when the stock is doing well; and the subsequent common stock offering stops the rally in its tracks and causes a sharp decline in the stock price. MPW also incurs more and more debt with these acquisitions that will have to be refinanced and refinanced, potentially at much higher rates than now. 

There is also an abundance of risks associated with government reimbursements to MPW's tenants. While those risks may not materialize over the near term, they will materialize.  

Trading Profits to Date: $1,334.83 (snapshots in Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Gateway Post: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy)

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.