Market Commentary:
Since late June, investors have pulled approximately $30B out of stock funds which is the largest outflow since 2004: U.S. Equity Funds Post Longest Run of Outflows Since 2004 - Bloomberg; Investors pull billions from US stocks in longest streak since 2004: CNBC
U.S. Corporations have reduced their stock buybacks by approximately $100 billion over the past 12 months. Over the past six years, stock buybacks have been an important source for demand and has shrunk market capitalization by about 17.5%. The Stock Market: the Best Defense Against a Shutdown-Barron's (subscription publication) A large number of corporation are funding buybacks and dividend payments, at least in part, by borrowing money. When those uses of cash are combined, the total will exceed free cash flow in many cases.
U.S. Stock Buybacks Are Plunging - Bloomberg
In the FactSet report published last December, shareholder distributions of the S & P 500, which is the total cash used to pay dividends and to buy back stock, were 117% of aggregate earnings over the trailing twelve months ending in the 2016 third quarter. Buyback Quarterly Q3 2016_12.19.pdf This kind of financial engineering indicates a short term share price focus among many publicly traded U.S. corporations, doing nothing for growth in future earnings and will become a drag on earnings when debt servicing costs rise to even normal historical levels.
Interest rates continue to be supportive for stocks. While interest and inflation rates are currently below long term historical norms, it is more important for stocks IMO that the long term forecasts call for a continuation of those abnormally low numbers.
The average U.S. inflation rate from 1914 through 2016 was 3.28%. United States Inflation Rate
Recent Annual CPI Numbers Starting with the Near Depression:
Consumer Price Index, 1913- | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
The market is currently projecting an annual average U.S. inflation rate below 2% over the next ten years which has been the case continuously for about 3 years:
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate -St. Louis Fed
Importantly IMO, the market believes that the annual average U.S. inflation rate will be below 2% for the next 30 years:
30-year Breakeven Inflation Rate-St. Louis Fed
The underlying tendency is to take recent historical data and to project more of the same into infinity.
The inflation numbers since the Near Depression are similar to what happened in the long term secular bull market that started in 1950, but those inflation numbers occurred in the context of much higher real GDP growth than now:
The onset of the Korean War in the later part of 1950 caused CPI to jump in 1951.
Real GDP Growth:
US Real GDP Growth Rate by Year
The U.S. economy is now too large to grow anywhere near the annual average rate of 4.63% during that earlier period.
Without a doubt, recent trends in historical interest rates and inflation have been impacted by the Near Depression and the extraordinarily abnormal central bank monetary policies that have been in place for an extended period.
Interest rates are falling today in a flight to safety: 2.094%, down .062 as of 8:31 A.M. on 8/29/17- U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note - MarketWatch.
Precious metals are rising in price as well. The recent spike in gold, however, started on 7/10/2017, when the A.M. London fix was at $1,207.55, and has been gaining in momentum since then: Historical London Fix Prices 2017 Today's A.M. London fix was at $1,323.4, up from yesterday's $1,287.05.
++++++
Economic Reports:
Durable good orders declined 6.8% in July. That followed a 6.4% increase in June.
++++++++
J P Morgan Guide to the Markets 2017 Third Quarter as of 6/30/17:
This report as usual has a lot of useful information. 2017 3rd Quarter PDF.
Reports can be downloaded at Guide to the Markets - J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
As I noted in an earlier comment, JPM has different time duration measurements for bull and bear market cycles than several other firms.
The bear cycle starts with a 20% decline from a previous market high (see page 14):
Using JPM's calculations, the current U.S. bull stock cycle is the second longest in history at 99 months through June 2017. The average duration is 54 months.
Since late June, investors have pulled approximately $30B out of stock funds which is the largest outflow since 2004: U.S. Equity Funds Post Longest Run of Outflows Since 2004 - Bloomberg; Investors pull billions from US stocks in longest streak since 2004: CNBC
U.S. Corporations have reduced their stock buybacks by approximately $100 billion over the past 12 months. Over the past six years, stock buybacks have been an important source for demand and has shrunk market capitalization by about 17.5%. The Stock Market: the Best Defense Against a Shutdown-Barron's (subscription publication) A large number of corporation are funding buybacks and dividend payments, at least in part, by borrowing money. When those uses of cash are combined, the total will exceed free cash flow in many cases.
U.S. Stock Buybacks Are Plunging - Bloomberg
In the FactSet report published last December, shareholder distributions of the S & P 500, which is the total cash used to pay dividends and to buy back stock, were 117% of aggregate earnings over the trailing twelve months ending in the 2016 third quarter. Buyback Quarterly Q3 2016_12.19.pdf This kind of financial engineering indicates a short term share price focus among many publicly traded U.S. corporations, doing nothing for growth in future earnings and will become a drag on earnings when debt servicing costs rise to even normal historical levels.
Interest rates continue to be supportive for stocks. While interest and inflation rates are currently below long term historical norms, it is more important for stocks IMO that the long term forecasts call for a continuation of those abnormally low numbers.
The average U.S. inflation rate from 1914 through 2016 was 3.28%. United States Inflation Rate
Recent Annual CPI Numbers Starting with the Near Depression:
The market is currently projecting an annual average U.S. inflation rate below 2% over the next ten years which has been the case continuously for about 3 years:
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate -St. Louis Fed
Importantly IMO, the market believes that the annual average U.S. inflation rate will be below 2% for the next 30 years:
30-year Breakeven Inflation Rate-St. Louis Fed
The underlying tendency is to take recent historical data and to project more of the same into infinity.
The inflation numbers since the Near Depression are similar to what happened in the long term secular bull market that started in 1950, but those inflation numbers occurred in the context of much higher real GDP growth than now:
The onset of the Korean War in the later part of 1950 caused CPI to jump in 1951.
Real GDP Growth:
US Real GDP Growth Rate by Year
The U.S. economy is now too large to grow anywhere near the annual average rate of 4.63% during that earlier period.
Without a doubt, recent trends in historical interest rates and inflation have been impacted by the Near Depression and the extraordinarily abnormal central bank monetary policies that have been in place for an extended period.
Interest rates are falling today in a flight to safety: 2.094%, down .062 as of 8:31 A.M. on 8/29/17- U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note - MarketWatch.
Precious metals are rising in price as well. The recent spike in gold, however, started on 7/10/2017, when the A.M. London fix was at $1,207.55, and has been gaining in momentum since then: Historical London Fix Prices 2017 Today's A.M. London fix was at $1,323.4, up from yesterday's $1,287.05.
++++++
Economic Reports:
Durable good orders declined 6.8% in July. That followed a 6.4% increase in June.
++++++++
J P Morgan Guide to the Markets 2017 Third Quarter as of 6/30/17:
This report as usual has a lot of useful information. 2017 3rd Quarter PDF.
Reports can be downloaded at Guide to the Markets - J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
As I noted in an earlier comment, JPM has different time duration measurements for bull and bear market cycles than several other firms.
The bear cycle starts with a 20% decline from a previous market high (see page 14):
Using JPM's calculations, the current U.S. bull stock cycle is the second longest in history at 99 months through June 2017. The average duration is 54 months.
++++++++++++
Trump, Mexico Will Pay For the Wall or Else, Threatens to Terminate NAFTA Again:
Mexico and Canada are not rolling over for Donald which has made Trump throw another temper tantrum.
Trump reiterated that threat yesterday in a news conference stating that he may initiate termination of the NAFTA agreement and reiterated that Mexico will pay for the wall. Trump further stated that Mexico has "been very difficult" in the negotiations that just got underway on August 16th. Is Donald Trump Right About NAFTA? Forbes
As I have stated in the past, both the Senate and House approved the NAFTA trade treaty. It is certainly questionable whether Donald can terminate the agreement without the consent of Congress. The provision in NAFTA, Article 2205, that governs termination does not refer to the U.S. President but to the parties to the agreement. The Government of the United States is the party to the treaty. Preamble
More republican voted for that trade agreement than Democrats who traditionally were not in favor of these free trade agreements which were pushed by republicans.
U.S. Senate: U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 103rd Congress - 1st Session
Final Vote Results for Roll Call 575: House of Representatives
The North American Free Trade Agreement: Ronald Reagan's Vision Realized | The Heritage Foundation
Canada and Mexico are the two largest importers of U.S. products.
2017 YTD:
Foreign Trade - U.S. Trade with .
In 2016, U.S. exports to Mexico and Canada amounted to 34.22% of all U.S. exports:
2016 Foreign Trade - U.S. Trade with .
After threatening to shut down the government during his Phoenix rants unless Congress appropriated funds for the wall, Trump insisted again in a tweet last Sunday that Mexico will pay for the wall:
Mexico replied again that it will not pay for the wall "under any circumstances". Mexico reiterates it won't pay for the wall - CNN
In his first conversation with the Mexican President after his inauguration, Trump went off script and started to threaten the imposition of tariffs on Mexico's exports to the U.S., which would of course start a trade war. Career employees of the State Department were probably aghast at Trump's threats and someone leaked the transcript.
Transcripts of Trump’s calls with Mexico and Australia - Washington Post (Trump: "I just wanted to very simply – and with a high level of precision – we put on a border tariff so that products coming in from Mexico to the United States would be taxed at a rate to be determined. But you know, it could be 10 percent or 15 percent or it could be 35 percent for some products . . Now, Mexico may in turn try to do something like that to us. . . So if Mexico adds a tax, we will add a tax."; Mexico's President replied "to tell you the truth Mr. President, I feel quite surprised about this new proposal that you are making because it is different from the discussion that both of our teams have been holding")
The Stock Jocks pay no attention to Trump's threats to terminate NAFTA by Executive Order, which is questionable legally since Congress approved that trade treaty and arguably must approve a termination notice as well.
Nonetheless, given the fact that the President of the U.S. is an ignorant and mentally unstable demagogue, there is a definite and significant risk that Trump will actually do something that the Stock Jocks can no longer ignore since the adverse economic repercussions would inevitably soon follow.
+++++++
Trump and Russia:
Trump’s business sought deal on a Trump Tower in Moscow while he ran for president - The Washington Post
Felix Sater, Trump Associate, Boasted That Moscow Business Deal ‘Will Get Donald Elected’ - The New York Times (Felix Sater, a Trump business associate, "said he had lined up financing for the Trump Tower deal with VTB Bank, a Russian bank that was under American sanctions for involvement in Moscow’s efforts to undermine democracy in Ukraine." Quoting from a Sater email to Trump's attorney Richard Cohen, Sater reportedly stated he will "Putin on this program and we will get Donald elected." Later in January 2016, Cohen wrote to Putin's spokesman requesting Putin's help in restarting a Trump hotel project in Moscow. The project did not get off the ground apparently, at least for now) Remember that Jared sat down for a private with VTB's Chairman and a close Putin associate on 12/13/2016.
Trump Organization attorney admits pursuing Moscow tower deal during campaign - MarketWatch
+++++++
Trump and Tillerson:
Scoop: Trump frustration with Tillerson rising fast - Axios
In an interview last Sunday, the following exchange occurred between Tillerson and Chris Wallace where Tillerson clearly distanced himself from Trump on American values:
Secretary Tillerson-Fox News
++++
Hurricane Harvey and GOP Politicians in Texas:
All but one GOP representative in Congress voted against the Sandy hurricane relief package in 2013. More than 20 Texas representatives and senators voted against Sandy aid. How will they vote on Harvey? - LA Times
Texas lawmakers, now bracing for Harvey, voted against Sandy spending -Dallas News
H.R. 152 (113th): Disaster Relief Appropriations Act, 2013 -- GovTrack.us
Cruz claims that the Sandy relief package included unrelated pork projects such as repairing damage to the shoreline, repairing commuter rail systems, bridges and tunnels damaged by that hurricane and to reimburse local governments for emergency spending. All of those "pork" type projects will be supported by the Texas GOP delegation when the money flows into their state.
Ted Cruz’s claim that two-thirds of the Hurricane Sandy bill ‘had nothing to do with Sandy’ - The Washington Post ("The Congressional Research Service issued a comprehensive report on the provisions, and it’s clear that virtually all of it was related to the damage caused by Sandy. There may have been some pork in an earlier Senate version, but many of those items were removed before final passage. There were also some items that appear to have been misunderstood.")
In 2005, Congressman Mike Pence led a GOP effort to deny funding for Katrina unless the Democrats agreed to Medicare spending cuts and cuts to other social programs.
After the Joplin, Missouri tornado disaster, Eric Cantor (R-VA), then the House Majority Leader, led a GOP effort to deny disaster relief unless the Democrats agreed to cut funding elsewhere. Cantor Says Congress Won’t Pay For Missouri Disaster Relief Unless Spending Is Cut Elsewhere; Politics and the Joplin Tornado: Eric Cantor Comes to the Unrescue. Is the Tea Party Happy Now? - St. Louis Magazine
I do anticipate that the GOP will have a different attitude when a predominately GOP region is hit by a disaster rather than blue states like NY and NJ and Democrat strongholds like New Orleans (Orleans Parish voted 80.8% for Hillary with Donald capturing just 14.7%-Louisiana Election Results 2016 – The New York Times) Hillary did carry Harris County 54% to 41.6%.
++++++++++
North Korea: Another Ballistic Missile Test:
Yesterday, a NK ballistic missile flew over Japan's Hokkaido Island. NK said the missile landed 733 miles east of Cape Erimo Japan. SK claimed that the missile hit a maximum altitude of 348 miles and traveled 1678 miles. North Korea Fires 'Unidentified Ballistic Missile' Through Japanese Airspace, South Korean Official Says - NBC News NK launched non-ballistic missiles over Japan's territory in 1998 and 2009.
What will Donald say now? More lock and loaded comments? What comes after lock and loaded"? His reply was to say all options are on the table, a meaningless and empty phrase that has been in vogue for a few decades.
I do not believe that anything has been done to date, including the recently passed U.N. sanctions that will change North Korea's accelerated development of ICBM's with nuclear payloads. Possibly, NK can be brought to its senses by reducing oil exports to NK by certain percentages whenever NK tests an ICBM or detonates a nuclear bomb.
+++++++
Trump, Mexico Will Pay For the Wall or Else, Threatens to Terminate NAFTA Again:
Mexico and Canada are not rolling over for Donald which has made Trump throw another temper tantrum.
Trump reiterated that threat yesterday in a news conference stating that he may initiate termination of the NAFTA agreement and reiterated that Mexico will pay for the wall. Trump further stated that Mexico has "been very difficult" in the negotiations that just got underway on August 16th. Is Donald Trump Right About NAFTA? Forbes
As I have stated in the past, both the Senate and House approved the NAFTA trade treaty. It is certainly questionable whether Donald can terminate the agreement without the consent of Congress. The provision in NAFTA, Article 2205, that governs termination does not refer to the U.S. President but to the parties to the agreement. The Government of the United States is the party to the treaty. Preamble
More republican voted for that trade agreement than Democrats who traditionally were not in favor of these free trade agreements which were pushed by republicans.
U.S. Senate: U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 103rd Congress - 1st Session
Final Vote Results for Roll Call 575: House of Representatives
The North American Free Trade Agreement: Ronald Reagan's Vision Realized | The Heritage Foundation
Canada and Mexico are the two largest importers of U.S. products.
2017 YTD:
Foreign Trade - U.S. Trade with .
In 2016, U.S. exports to Mexico and Canada amounted to 34.22% of all U.S. exports:
2016 Foreign Trade - U.S. Trade with .
After threatening to shut down the government during his Phoenix rants unless Congress appropriated funds for the wall, Trump insisted again in a tweet last Sunday that Mexico will pay for the wall:
Mexico replied again that it will not pay for the wall "under any circumstances". Mexico reiterates it won't pay for the wall - CNN
In his first conversation with the Mexican President after his inauguration, Trump went off script and started to threaten the imposition of tariffs on Mexico's exports to the U.S., which would of course start a trade war. Career employees of the State Department were probably aghast at Trump's threats and someone leaked the transcript.
Transcripts of Trump’s calls with Mexico and Australia - Washington Post (Trump: "I just wanted to very simply – and with a high level of precision – we put on a border tariff so that products coming in from Mexico to the United States would be taxed at a rate to be determined. But you know, it could be 10 percent or 15 percent or it could be 35 percent for some products . . Now, Mexico may in turn try to do something like that to us. . . So if Mexico adds a tax, we will add a tax."; Mexico's President replied "to tell you the truth Mr. President, I feel quite surprised about this new proposal that you are making because it is different from the discussion that both of our teams have been holding")
The Stock Jocks pay no attention to Trump's threats to terminate NAFTA by Executive Order, which is questionable legally since Congress approved that trade treaty and arguably must approve a termination notice as well.
Nonetheless, given the fact that the President of the U.S. is an ignorant and mentally unstable demagogue, there is a definite and significant risk that Trump will actually do something that the Stock Jocks can no longer ignore since the adverse economic repercussions would inevitably soon follow.
+++++++
Trump and Russia:
Trump’s business sought deal on a Trump Tower in Moscow while he ran for president - The Washington Post
Felix Sater, Trump Associate, Boasted That Moscow Business Deal ‘Will Get Donald Elected’ - The New York Times (Felix Sater, a Trump business associate, "said he had lined up financing for the Trump Tower deal with VTB Bank, a Russian bank that was under American sanctions for involvement in Moscow’s efforts to undermine democracy in Ukraine." Quoting from a Sater email to Trump's attorney Richard Cohen, Sater reportedly stated he will "Putin on this program and we will get Donald elected." Later in January 2016, Cohen wrote to Putin's spokesman requesting Putin's help in restarting a Trump hotel project in Moscow. The project did not get off the ground apparently, at least for now) Remember that Jared sat down for a private with VTB's Chairman and a close Putin associate on 12/13/2016.
Trump Organization attorney admits pursuing Moscow tower deal during campaign - MarketWatch
+++++++
Trump and Tillerson:
Scoop: Trump frustration with Tillerson rising fast - Axios
In an interview last Sunday, the following exchange occurred between Tillerson and Chris Wallace where Tillerson clearly distanced himself from Trump on American values:
Secretary Tillerson-Fox News
++++
Hurricane Harvey and GOP Politicians in Texas:
All but one GOP representative in Congress voted against the Sandy hurricane relief package in 2013. More than 20 Texas representatives and senators voted against Sandy aid. How will they vote on Harvey? - LA Times
Texas lawmakers, now bracing for Harvey, voted against Sandy spending -Dallas News
H.R. 152 (113th): Disaster Relief Appropriations Act, 2013 -- GovTrack.us
Cruz claims that the Sandy relief package included unrelated pork projects such as repairing damage to the shoreline, repairing commuter rail systems, bridges and tunnels damaged by that hurricane and to reimburse local governments for emergency spending. All of those "pork" type projects will be supported by the Texas GOP delegation when the money flows into their state.
Ted Cruz’s claim that two-thirds of the Hurricane Sandy bill ‘had nothing to do with Sandy’ - The Washington Post ("The Congressional Research Service issued a comprehensive report on the provisions, and it’s clear that virtually all of it was related to the damage caused by Sandy. There may have been some pork in an earlier Senate version, but many of those items were removed before final passage. There were also some items that appear to have been misunderstood.")
In 2005, Congressman Mike Pence led a GOP effort to deny funding for Katrina unless the Democrats agreed to Medicare spending cuts and cuts to other social programs.
After the Joplin, Missouri tornado disaster, Eric Cantor (R-VA), then the House Majority Leader, led a GOP effort to deny disaster relief unless the Democrats agreed to cut funding elsewhere. Cantor Says Congress Won’t Pay For Missouri Disaster Relief Unless Spending Is Cut Elsewhere; Politics and the Joplin Tornado: Eric Cantor Comes to the Unrescue. Is the Tea Party Happy Now? - St. Louis Magazine
I do anticipate that the GOP will have a different attitude when a predominately GOP region is hit by a disaster rather than blue states like NY and NJ and Democrat strongholds like New Orleans (Orleans Parish voted 80.8% for Hillary with Donald capturing just 14.7%-Louisiana Election Results 2016 – The New York Times) Hillary did carry Harris County 54% to 41.6%.
++++++++++
North Korea: Another Ballistic Missile Test:
Yesterday, a NK ballistic missile flew over Japan's Hokkaido Island. NK said the missile landed 733 miles east of Cape Erimo Japan. SK claimed that the missile hit a maximum altitude of 348 miles and traveled 1678 miles. North Korea Fires 'Unidentified Ballistic Missile' Through Japanese Airspace, South Korean Official Says - NBC News NK launched non-ballistic missiles over Japan's territory in 1998 and 2009.
What will Donald say now? More lock and loaded comments? What comes after lock and loaded"? His reply was to say all options are on the table, a meaningless and empty phrase that has been in vogue for a few decades.
I do not believe that anything has been done to date, including the recently passed U.N. sanctions that will change North Korea's accelerated development of ICBM's with nuclear payloads. Possibly, NK can be brought to its senses by reducing oil exports to NK by certain percentages whenever NK tests an ICBM or detonates a nuclear bomb.
+++++++
A. Sold 100 TRPPRD at C$21.75:
Profit Snapshot: +C$359
I discussed buying this lot at C$18.14 here.
Quote: TRP.PR.D Stock Price - TransCanada Corp. Pfd. Series 7 (Canada: Toronto)
Issuer: TransCanada Corp. (U.S.: NYSE); TransCanada Corp. (Canada: Toronto)
TRP Analyst Estimates
TransCanada Prospectuses
The problem as I see it is that April 30, 2019 is not that far away and the five year Canadian treasury note is currently range bound near 1.55%: Canada 5 Year Government Bond If that rate was in effect on the April 2019 reset date, the coupon would actually decline from the current 4% for five years thereafter. (2.38% spread+ 1.55% = 3.93%)
Profit Snapshot: +C$359
I discussed buying this lot at C$18.14 here.
Quote: TRP.PR.D Stock Price - TransCanada Corp. Pfd. Series 7 (Canada: Toronto)
Issuer: TransCanada Corp. (U.S.: NYSE); TransCanada Corp. (Canada: Toronto)
TRP Analyst Estimates
This security currently pays a cumulative dividend at the fixed coupon rate of 4% on a C$25 par value.
The fixed coupon rate remains in effect to but excluding April 30, 2019. The coupon is then set for five years at a 2.38% spread to the five year Canadian bond and every five years thereafter at the same spread. TRP has the option to redeem at par value on each reset date. The owner has the option to convert their shares on the reset date into Series 8 shares that pay a 2.38% spread to the 3 month Canadian T. Bill.
TransCanada Prospectuses
The problem as I see it is that April 30, 2019 is not that far away and the five year Canadian treasury note is currently range bound near 1.55%: Canada 5 Year Government Bond If that rate was in effect on the April 2019 reset date, the coupon would actually decline from the current 4% for five years thereafter. (2.38% spread+ 1.55% = 3.93%)
2. Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Gateway Post: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy:
A. Added 50 MPW at $12.66 (Used Commission Free Trade):
My last purchase in this account was at $12.85: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 5.A. (8/3/17 Post) That purchase was made on 7/24/17.
Thereafter, MPW released its second quarter report. I view the report as sufficiently satisfactory to buy another 50 shares pursuant to my usual risk/reward type analysis given my investment objectives.
Guidance:
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. Reports Second Quarter Results; Provides Net Income and FFO Estimates for 2017 and 2018
Form 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/17 (debt is discussed starting at page 22(
MPW needs to quit being an empire builder IMO. When the share price pops over $14, I expect MPW to make another large acquisition and to fund it in part with a significant share offering that knocks down the price. Significantly more debt is incurred as well.
Last April and to fund some acquisitions, MPW sold 43.125 shares to the public at $13.25, netting $12.72 after the underwriter's discount. Net proceeds before MPW's own expenses connected to the offering were approximately $548M: Prospectus
Just prior to the announcement of that share offering, the shares were trading at over $14 and has been drifting down since then. MPW Historical Prices
Have the shareholders benefited from the frequent large transactions financed with debt and stock offerings The five year chart provides the answer:
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. to Invest $1.4 Billion in Ten Acute Care Hospitals and One Behavioral Health Facility
Bigger does not necessarily mean better.
MPW did run into some problems with a major tenant as described in this excerpt from the most recently filed 10-Q:
MPW SEC Filings
MPW Trading Profits to Date: $1,334.84 (snapshots can be found in Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Gateway Post: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy)
B. Averaged Down: Added 50 APLE at $17.92 (used commission free trade):
Apple Hospitality REIT Inc. (APLE)
In this account, I am averaging down from a 50 share purchase made at $18.58: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 3.A.
My last purchase was at $18.15: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 1.B.
Apple Hospitality REIT is currently paying a monthly dividend of $.1 per share. Apple Hospitality REIT Announces September 2017 Distribution
At that rate, the dividend yield at a total cost of $17.92 per share is about 6.7%.
For the dividends paid in 2016, 24% of the total was classified as return of capital which resulted in a $.29 per share adjustment to the cost basis: APLE IRS Form 8937.PDF The portion of a dividend classified as ROC is not taxable as a dividend, but does reduce the cost basis by an equivalent amount. (different rules may apply for non-U.S. individual taxpayers).
Apple Hospitality REIT "owns one of the largest portfolios of upscale, select service hotels in the United States." The "geographically diverse portfolio consists of 236 Hilton® and Marriott® branded hotels located across 33 states", with over 30,000 guestrooms. Corporate Overview
Last Earnings Report: Apple Hospitality REIT Reports Results of Operations for Second Quarter 2017
2017 Guidance: Stagnant RevPar Growth
Hotel Map - Apple Hospitality Reit
APLE SEC Filings
Brad Thomas published a SA article about this REIT: Spend A Night, Not A Fortune, Collect Monthly Dividends --Seeking Alpha
Cramer interviewed APLE's CEO on Mad Money.
I am aiming lower on my re-entry point to provide a greater cushion for realizing a total return in excess of the dividend yield.
I have sold shares profitably at $19.75 (12/12/16); at $20.24 (1/4/17), and at $19.42 (4/26/17).
Hotel REITs are at the moment in disfavor. The Dow Jones U.S. Hotel & Lodging REITs Index closed at 122.88 on 6/19/17 and at 112.78 last Friday.
APLE is currently trading below its 100 and 200 day SMA lines: Apple Hospitality REIT
The 52 week range is currently at $17.32 to $20.68 with the high hit in January 2017. Among REIT sectors, hotel REITs will probably be the worst or close to the worst performing sector during a recession. In early March 2009, the Hotel REIT index was hovering around 22.
APLE closed at $17.75 yesterday (8/28), down .78% for the day.
2. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 BMW Bank 1.6% CDs (semi-annual interest) Maturing on 2/19/18:
This bank has a 4 star rating from Bankrate: BMW BANK OF NORTH AMERICA Review
B. Bought 1 Compass Bank 1.25% CD Maturing on 1/25/18-Roth IRA:
Compass Bank has a 3 star rating from Bankrate: COMPASS BANK Review
Holding Company: BBVA Compass Bancshares, a wholly owned subsidiary of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. ADR (BBVA)
The Fidelity Government MM yield was .63% when I bought this CD in a Roth IRA and paid for it out of that MM account.
SPAXX - Fidelity ® Government Money Market Fund | Fidelity Investments
I have entered a more conservative preservation of capital phase for the Roth IRA accounts while continuing to pick up some yield in high quality corporate bonds (both exchange traded with $25 par values and $1K par value bonds including several first mortgage bonds), TIPs, several REITs and a broad assortment of other higher income producing securities.
I own one Compass Bank junior bond that was bought in 2012. Stocks, Bonds & Politics: BOUGHT 1 Compass Bank 5.9% Subordinated Note Maturing in 2026 at 76.75 (7/11/2012 Post); FINRA Page .
C. Bought 2 Compass Bank 1.4% CDs Maturing on 5/25/18 (9 month CD):
D. Bought 2 Customers Bank 1.35% CDs Maturing on 2/28/18:
The holding company is publicly traded as Customers Bancorp Inc. (CUBI)
CUBI Analyst Estimates
This bank has a 4 star rating from Bankrate: CUSTOMERS BANK Review
E. Bought 2 Sterling Bank 1.65% CDs (monthly interest) Maturing on 4/29/18 (20 month CDs):
This bank has a five star rating from Bankrate: STERLING BANK Review
$9K Inflow into Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
A. Added 50 MPW at $12.66 (Used Commission Free Trade):
My last purchase in this account was at $12.85: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 5.A. (8/3/17 Post) That purchase was made on 7/24/17.
Thereafter, MPW released its second quarter report. I view the report as sufficiently satisfactory to buy another 50 shares pursuant to my usual risk/reward type analysis given my investment objectives.
Guidance:
"Based on management’s present investment, capital and operating strategies, and the expected timing of each, management estimates 2017 net income as a range of between $0.87 and $0.89 per diluted share and 2017 Normalized FFO between $1.29 and $1.31 per diluted share. This range is based on management’s estimate of the likely timing of closing of the $1.4 billion Steward investment and the timing and interest rate related to the anticipated debt financing of such investment.
The Company today is also introducing its estimate of 2018 net income as a range of between $1.02 and $1.06 per diluted share and 2018 Normalized FFO between $1.42 and $1.46 per diluted share. This estimate assumes no additional acquisitions or investments and no asset sales." (emphasis added)
The midpoint of the 2018 estimated normalized FFO range is $1.44 per share or about a P/AFFO ratio of 8.79 based on a $12.64 total cost per share.
The current quarterly dividend is $.24, with the next ex dividend date in September. Medical Properties Trust, Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend of $0.24 Per Share At that rate, the dividend yield is about 7.58% at a $12.66 per share total cost.
FFO and AFFO Calculations:The midpoint of the 2018 estimated normalized FFO range is $1.44 per share or about a P/AFFO ratio of 8.79 based on a $12.64 total cost per share.
The current quarterly dividend is $.24, with the next ex dividend date in September. Medical Properties Trust, Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend of $0.24 Per Share At that rate, the dividend yield is about 7.58% at a $12.66 per share total cost.
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. Reports Second Quarter Results; Provides Net Income and FFO Estimates for 2017 and 2018
Form 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/17 (debt is discussed starting at page 22(
MPW needs to quit being an empire builder IMO. When the share price pops over $14, I expect MPW to make another large acquisition and to fund it in part with a significant share offering that knocks down the price. Significantly more debt is incurred as well.
Last April and to fund some acquisitions, MPW sold 43.125 shares to the public at $13.25, netting $12.72 after the underwriter's discount. Net proceeds before MPW's own expenses connected to the offering were approximately $548M: Prospectus
Just prior to the announcement of that share offering, the shares were trading at over $14 and has been drifting down since then. MPW Historical Prices
Have the shareholders benefited from the frequent large transactions financed with debt and stock offerings The five year chart provides the answer:
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. to Invest $1.4 Billion in Ten Acute Care Hospitals and One Behavioral Health Facility
Bigger does not necessarily mean better.
MPW did run into some problems with a major tenant as described in this excerpt from the most recently filed 10-Q:
MPW SEC Filings
MPW Trading Profits to Date: $1,334.84 (snapshots can be found in Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Gateway Post: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy)
B. Averaged Down: Added 50 APLE at $17.92 (used commission free trade):
Apple Hospitality REIT Inc. (APLE)
In this account, I am averaging down from a 50 share purchase made at $18.58: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 3.A.
My last purchase was at $18.15: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 1.B.
Apple Hospitality REIT is currently paying a monthly dividend of $.1 per share. Apple Hospitality REIT Announces September 2017 Distribution
At that rate, the dividend yield at a total cost of $17.92 per share is about 6.7%.
For the dividends paid in 2016, 24% of the total was classified as return of capital which resulted in a $.29 per share adjustment to the cost basis: APLE IRS Form 8937.PDF The portion of a dividend classified as ROC is not taxable as a dividend, but does reduce the cost basis by an equivalent amount. (different rules may apply for non-U.S. individual taxpayers).
Apple Hospitality REIT "owns one of the largest portfolios of upscale, select service hotels in the United States." The "geographically diverse portfolio consists of 236 Hilton® and Marriott® branded hotels located across 33 states", with over 30,000 guestrooms. Corporate Overview
Last Earnings Report: Apple Hospitality REIT Reports Results of Operations for Second Quarter 2017
2017 Guidance: Stagnant RevPar Growth
Hotel Map - Apple Hospitality Reit
APLE SEC Filings
Brad Thomas published a SA article about this REIT: Spend A Night, Not A Fortune, Collect Monthly Dividends --Seeking Alpha
Cramer interviewed APLE's CEO on Mad Money.
I am aiming lower on my re-entry point to provide a greater cushion for realizing a total return in excess of the dividend yield.
I have sold shares profitably at $19.75 (12/12/16); at $20.24 (1/4/17), and at $19.42 (4/26/17).
Hotel REITs are at the moment in disfavor. The Dow Jones U.S. Hotel & Lodging REITs Index closed at 122.88 on 6/19/17 and at 112.78 last Friday.
APLE is currently trading below its 100 and 200 day SMA lines: Apple Hospitality REIT
The 52 week range is currently at $17.32 to $20.68 with the high hit in January 2017. Among REIT sectors, hotel REITs will probably be the worst or close to the worst performing sector during a recession. In early March 2009, the Hotel REIT index was hovering around 22.
APLE closed at $17.75 yesterday (8/28), down .78% for the day.
2. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 BMW Bank 1.6% CDs (semi-annual interest) Maturing on 2/19/18:
This bank has a 4 star rating from Bankrate: BMW BANK OF NORTH AMERICA Review
B. Bought 1 Compass Bank 1.25% CD Maturing on 1/25/18-Roth IRA:
Compass Bank has a 3 star rating from Bankrate: COMPASS BANK Review
Holding Company: BBVA Compass Bancshares, a wholly owned subsidiary of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. ADR (BBVA)
The Fidelity Government MM yield was .63% when I bought this CD in a Roth IRA and paid for it out of that MM account.
SPAXX - Fidelity ® Government Money Market Fund | Fidelity Investments
I have entered a more conservative preservation of capital phase for the Roth IRA accounts while continuing to pick up some yield in high quality corporate bonds (both exchange traded with $25 par values and $1K par value bonds including several first mortgage bonds), TIPs, several REITs and a broad assortment of other higher income producing securities.
I own one Compass Bank junior bond that was bought in 2012. Stocks, Bonds & Politics: BOUGHT 1 Compass Bank 5.9% Subordinated Note Maturing in 2026 at 76.75 (7/11/2012 Post); FINRA Page .
C. Bought 2 Compass Bank 1.4% CDs Maturing on 5/25/18 (9 month CD):
D. Bought 2 Customers Bank 1.35% CDs Maturing on 2/28/18:
The holding company is publicly traded as Customers Bancorp Inc. (CUBI)
CUBI Analyst Estimates
This bank has a 4 star rating from Bankrate: CUSTOMERS BANK Review
E. Bought 2 Sterling Bank 1.65% CDs (monthly interest) Maturing on 4/29/18 (20 month CDs):
This bank has a five star rating from Bankrate: STERLING BANK Review
$9K Inflow into Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
A number of REITs own property in and near Houston and other localities severely impacted by Harvey.
ReplyDeleteTo date, I have seen a press release from only one, Xenia Hotels, about the impact on owned properties.
Xenia claims that there was no significant damage to the four hotels in the region (3 in Houston) and all were currently open.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/xenia-hotels--resorts-provides-hurricane-harvey-update-300510191.html
TravelCenters (TA) hit a new 52 week low today. I did not see any specific news. I thought that today's downdraft might be connected in some way to the hurricane Harvey.
The three TA senior unsecured bonds are tanking as well. I view all TA bonds as high risk, as I previously discussed most recently in a comment to the last post.
TA apparently does not have many locations in the impacted area, judging from this map:
Select Texas
https://www.ta-petro.com/location/
1. What is the conclusion to be drawn from your "Market Commentary"? What is your guess as to what will happen in the short and medium term?
ReplyDelete2. "the President of the U.S. is an ignorant and mentally unstable demagogue"
Sometimes I get the feeling that you don't like him.
D: It would be fair to say that I am not a Donald fan. I expect republican presidents to cut taxes for rich people and to reduce the number of regulations primarily for big businesses. That is not my problem with Donald.
DeleteThe stock market still has momentum to the upside. That could of course change at anytime and could turn on a dime. Short term movements are basically not predictable with anything approaching certainty.
My Vix Asset Allocation model is still flashing green. The VIX Model is most of the time an intermediate term indicator, meaning 3 to 5 years from the onset of a Stable Vix Pattern. We are currently 13+ months into the most recently formed Stable VIX Pattern. The SVP can only be terminated by a Trigger Event.
Vix Asset Allocation Model Explained Simply
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2009/05/vix-asset-allocation-model-explained.html
My asset allocation moves are dominated by a capital preservation focus. I do not have a high tolerance for risk, a need to assume any risks, and a relatively short time frame. If I had none of those conditions, I personally would use that model now in conjunction with a 200 day SMA line for investors The 200 day SMA is around 2398 at the moment. The general idea would be to lighten up on the total stock allocation during the Recovery Period following a Trigger Event and the downside piercing of the 200 day line. Both the downside break in the 200 day SMA line and the Trigger Event must have been in existence. There can be nips and tucks along the way, as new positions are added and some old ones are discarded for one or more good reasons.
The Stock Jocks are ignoring a significant number of potential risks. It is impossible to predict with certainty when one or more of those risks can no longer be ignored.
TANNZ: As a Lotto Ticket, I bought 30 of this TA senior unsecured bond this morning at $17.25. It is high risk which is reflected in the current yield and YTM.
ReplyDeleteTravelCenters of America LLC 8% Sr. Notes Maturing on 10/15/30
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tannz
Current Yield at $17.25: 11.59%
Next Quarterly Ex Interest Date: 9/29/17
Whenever I buy one of these high risk bonds, I have to be willing to risk a default.
There could also be a problem with TA centers being unable to secure gasoline supplies due to refinery shutdowns even if none of the operations are closed due to flooding. I suspect there will be a gasoline shortage. Even if the refineries can restart operations, many of the workers may now be homeless and arrangements will have to be made for them before returning to work.
I last sold this particular exchange traded senior unsecured TA bond at $25.65 on 3/30/17:
Item 4.A.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/04/observations-and-sample-of-recent_14.html
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/04/observations-and-sample-of-recent_14.html
That was a 50 share lot. So the 5 month decline in price since I eliminated my position is about 32.75%.
TANNZ: I sold another 50 share lot at $25.72 pm 2/16/17.
ReplyDeleteItem # 4.A.
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/02/observations-and-sample-of-recent_27.html
I have a hair trigger, more than normal, whenever I purchase a distressed debt issue. I will not wait for a price over $25 before I sell that 30 share lot bought at $17.25 this morning.
IMGN: This stock is another bungee jumper in my small cap biotech lottery ticket basket and was my biggest percentage gainer in that basket today. Volume was heavy.
ReplyDeleteImmunoGen, Inc. (IMGN)
$7.58 +1.12 (+17.34%)
Volume 12,980,491
Avg. Volume 2,915,704
Day's Range 6.87 - 7.91
52 Week Range 1.51 - 8.04
At one time, I owned 150 shares. My first 100 shares went down significantly in price and was sold for a $77.48 gain after a 50+% price bounce.
That left me with 50 shares bought at $1.77 which I still own. (12/12/16)
There was some news today.
"Jazz Pharmaceuticals and ImmunoGen, Inc. Announce a Strategic Collaboration and Option Agreement to Develop and Commercialize Antibody-Drug Conjugate Products"
http://investor.immunogen.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1038471
Pipeline:
http://www.immunogen.com/pipeline
South Gent,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update and the link to J P Morgan Guide to the Markets 2017 Third Quarter, a lot of good useful information.
Re. APLE glancing at its management roster it looks like a family business: Glade M. Knight (Founder and Exec. Chairman), Justin G. Knight (Chief Exec. Officer, Pres) and Nelson G. Knight (Chief Investment Officer). The family has been a serial REIT owners/creators.
South Gent,
ReplyDeleteRe. IMGN I normally would consider selling when the price approaches its Target Price (from sell side analysts), which is the case now for IMGN. However, MYOK went up 53% since I sold it on 8/7 as the analysts adjusted the TP upward after the good news. I guess Target Price is not a very reliable tool of selling.
Y: IMO, the upside or downside price for a clinical biotech stock is unknowable and consequently any estimate is unreliable.
DeleteIMGN rose another 11.74% today, closing at $8.47. One noteworthy fact is that the volume continues to be heavy as the price spikes, so one or more institutions are still buying.
8/30/17
Volume 11,519,152
Avg. Volume 3,070,050
The Fidelity Biotechnology fund already owned 14.588+M shares based on the last report but other health care funds with large biotech positions are not in the top 10 based on the dated data:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IMGN/holders?p=IMGN
I read a story earlier today that a MS analyst significantly cut his earnings forecast for that stock but at the same time raised his target price.
"In May, Jonas had estimated per-share losses (excluding stock-option expense) of $3.53 in 2017 and $1.14 in 2018, and a profit of $2.43 in 2019. His latest estimates: losses of $7.60 and $3.66, and a 2019 profit of $2.01."
That is, increase loss estimates and the price target together which is not going to compute for this Old Geezer.
Barron's Subscription Publication
http://www.barrons.com/articles/a-canary-in-the-wall-street-coal-mine-1503724900
Tesla has been around for 14 years now, has a cumulative loss of $3.7B, must sell stock to pay for its operating deficits and its Model S and Model X car sales have been stagnant for 4 quarters. Yet WS is brimming with all kinds of rosy future predictions, first about the onset of a profit and then profit growth.
GDP: The government revised real GDP growth in the second quarter up to 3% from the prior estimate of 2.6%.
ReplyDeleteConsumer spending growth was revised up to 3.3% from 1.9%.
Personal consumption expenditure inflation fell sharply to .3% from 2.2%.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-economic-growth-hits-3-rate-in-second-quarter-2017-08-30
Over the past few weeks, I have been selling intermediate term bonds and moving the proceeds into short term bonds and CDs. The underlying theme was that intermediate interest rates have fallen too far. Consequently, I thought there was a good chance that I would be able to buy those bonds back at prices 1% lower than my prior lowest purchase price relatively soon.
The short term CD/Bond basket will provide a continuing source of redemption proceeds that can be redeployed to buy intermediate term bonds or whatever other securities provide the best risk/reward profile given my capital preservation and income objectives.
In case I am wrong about that forecast, and even near term future forecasting is prone to being wrong, I have slightly increased my long term Tennessee municipal bond exposure buying yesterday another one that provides me with a 3% current tax free yield.
So far, the ten year treasury is barely reacting to the GDP revision, possibly due to the abrupt decline in the PCE price index.
2.144% - 0.015
Last Updated: Aug 30, 2017 8:59 a.m. EDT
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx
Though, being a member of the old school, it is very hard for me to see a 2.14% ten year treasury rate being consistent with 2% real GDP growth and <5% unemployment, let alone 3% growth and a 4.3% unemployment rate.
Since I have multiple brokerage accounts, I have observed differences in CD yields for the same bank CD maturing at the same time.
ReplyDeleteI bought earlier today at Schwab 2 Comenity Bank 1.4% CDs that pay monthly interest and mature on 6/7/18.
Fidelity has the same CD with a 1.3% coupon that pays monthly interest and matures on the same day.
The CUSIP numbers will of course be different but they are in effect the same CDs.
Fidelity CUSIP: DSH8P8538
Schwab CUSIP: 20033AWH5
COMENITY BANK is a wholly owned subsidiary of Alliance Data Systems (ADS).
South Gent,
DeleteI think we discussed this once. A couple of months ago we had both bought (at different brokers) CDs from the same bank of same maturity, but at different yields. After raising the concern to my broker I have learned that at the wholesale level the issuer might give different rates to different brokers for various reasons, e.g., maybe a larger distribution network will get a preferential rate (a larger commission). Also at the retail level a broker might decide by itself to pocket a higher fee than the normal one. My broker's conclusion was that their CD Desk will do their best to get the best deals for the customers. Sometimes parity does exist and we, the customers, also enjoy other perks so we shouldn't really complain. They need to make a profit as well.
Y: We did discuss this previously where Schwab had the better rate than Fidelity.
DeleteFYI: Fidelity is much larger than Schwab with 24.9M brokerage accounts compared to about 11M for Schwab.
https://www.fidelity.com/about-fidelity/fidelity-by-numbers/corporate-statistics
When I have noted a difference in CD yields from the same issuer and maturity date, Fidelity has always been the lowest.
While it is not possible to know the motives or the reasons, the most reasonable assumption is that Fidelity is just charging a greater fee than Schwab in those cases, and the rest is just so much jive.
But you have a point about looking at the entirety as well. One major detriment at Schwab is that the MM fund that I am forced to use has a .1% yield, which is why I am buying more CDs at Schwab. Yet, Fidelity's Government Fund is about .4% lower than Vanguard's MM fund.
Fidelity prohibits online orders for an array of securities. Try buying AEB or AMJ for example.
I do not have that problem anywhere else.
Schwab charges $1 per bond like Fidelity and IB but has a $10 minimum.
Since I do a lot of trading I see issues involving execution of thinly traded securities. Schwab is often better than the others and particularly on Canadian Grey Market listed securities.
Schwab in the past does almost nothing to claim the foreign tax treaty rate for international companies outside of Canada, and IB is problematic on that issue as well. Vanguard and Fidelity are my best brokers for claiming the benefits of foreign tax treaty rates for dividend payments which are invariably lower than making no claim of U.S. citizenship for a brokerage customer.
Fidelity has a number of problems which requires me to have other brokerage accounts to avoid the self inflicted issues like trade prohibitions and sometimes to get a better price or deal.
I am currently using 500 free trades available at Schwab and Fidelity. Their stock commission rates without the fee trades are $4.95 with IB at $1 for my small lot trades.
GILD: Looks like some institutions have decided that the KITE transaction is a good one:
ReplyDeleteGilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)
$79.89 +$4.15 (+5.49%)
As of 11:18AM EDT.
The FDA approved the NVS CAR-T therapy drug earlier today which may explain the GILD move:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/novartis-ags-car-t-cell-therapy-for-leukemia-approved-by-fda-in-historic-action-2017-08-30-11911531
At least my 30+ share GILD position is now profitable by $100+.
My larger position is in NVS at 135 shares.
"Novartis’ CAR-T gene therapy, the first approved by FDA, to cost $475,000"
Deletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/novartis-car-t-gene-therapy-the-first-approved-by-fda-to-be-priced-based-on-cancer-patients-outcomes-2017-08-30
TANNZ: I mentioned in a comment to my last blog buying a 30 share Lotto ticket in this exchange traded senior unsecured bond at $17.25:
ReplyDeleteClosed today at $20.54 +$2.79 (+15.72%)
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tannz
It may be hazardous to offer a rational reason why the bond was at $17.25 yesterday and at $20.54 today.
I would just note that the common shares perked up some today:
TravelCenters of America LLC
$3.25 +$0.15 +4.84%
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ta
Norman published a SA article about these bonds:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4102117-travelcenters-america-view-perspective-preferred-investor
I never find his analysis noteworthy.
I did note, when reading the article today, that a few commenters raised a valid point.
E.G. "This company is a source of blood for the vampire RMR/HPT/Portnoy complex," referring to this SA article:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4022836-travelcenters-america-q3-update-ongoing-stale-status-quo
A somewhat more favorable view about TA can be found here:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4086211-travelcenters-taking-road-less-traveled
I may have a more favorable opinion of Trump compared to the two Portnoys Barry and his son Adam. But there is something to be said that the Portnoys will do what they can to keep TA alive as long as it does not hurt them personally to do a salvage operation.
The Travelcenters twitter page has information on store closures and operations in the Harvey impacted areas.
https://twitter.com/TATravelCenters?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ta-petro.com%2Fnewsroom%2F
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/08/observations-and-sample-of-recent_31.html