Economy:
Dollar gains buoyancy after Powell’s upbeat comments about the U.S. economy - MarketWatch
Powell's testimony indicates that the FED remains on track to increase the federal funds rate gradually. Fed's Powell: Years of strong jobs, low inflation still ahead | Reuters (“With appropriate monetary policy, the job market will remain strong and inflation will stay near 2 percent over the next several years.”)
Retail sales increased by .5% in June. Advance Monthly Sales.pdf
Powell's testimony indicates that the FED remains on track to increase the federal funds rate gradually. Fed's Powell: Years of strong jobs, low inflation still ahead | Reuters (“With appropriate monetary policy, the job market will remain strong and inflation will stay near 2 percent over the next several years.”)
Retail sales increased by .5% in June. Advance Monthly Sales.pdf
Here’s when Americans will start feeling the pain from escalating Trump-imposed tariffs - MarketWatch (may be better to buy toys for kids sooner rather than later)
China's trade surplus with U.S. hits record as exporters rush to beat tariffs | Reuters
China growth slows slightly in second quarter - MarketWatch (GDP +6.7%, down from +6.8% in the first quarter)
China growth slows slightly in second quarter - MarketWatch (GDP +6.7%, down from +6.8% in the first quarter)
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Markets and Market Commentary:
Vanguard: You'll make less money in the market over the next 10 years (estimated annual return at 3% to 5% unadjusted for inflation) Mario Gabelli has a more bullish estimate of 6% to 8% annual return in the S & P 500 index, which I view as optimistic. Mario Gabelli on Tariffs, Treasuries, Taxes and Technology-Barron's Both estimates could be wildly optimistic with the onset of a long term secular bear market covering most of that period when total returns, unadjusted for inflation and taxes, could be negative.
The period between 1/1/1966 through 7/31/1982, which is longer than my current life expectancy using the mortality tables, produced a total annual average return of -1.798% adjusted for inflation and before taxes. S&P 500 Return Calculator, with Dividend Reinvestment The total return number includes reinvestment of the dividends.
Another bad period started in August 2000 and lasted through February 2009, when the annual average total return adjusted return was -7.59%. During long term bear markets, there are a lot of up and downs but the end result is that the stock index investment has lost ground with dividends reinvested and adjusted for inflation and before taxes, over a significant period of time. The worst period started before I was born so I missed that one.
The most recent longer term bear markets have had their origins in too much debt. That was certainly the case in the 2008 Near Depression period. The solution to the world having too much debt was to increase the total (government and consumer) over the next ten years by about $70 trillion which is bad enough before you take into account the return of normalized interest rates.
I am estimating that number. It is probably larger. McKinsey came up with a $57 trillion number through the 2014 second quarter or over 4 years ago. Debt and (not much) deleveraging | McKinsey & Company
U.S. government debt can be serviced only by issuing more debt to pay the interest on maturing securities. The annual budget deficit for the current fiscal year is probably going to exceed $800 billion and $1 trillion by 2010. The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028 | Congressional Budget Office
Whatever the number turns out to be, the deficit can only be financed with new debt growing in a parabolic fashion. At some point, the world refuses to belly up to the bar. It is not a question of whether this will happen but when.
The U.S. Treasury through the Federal Reserve has been a major buyer of U.S. debt issued by the U.S. treasury starting with the first QE program in 2009. That pile is being allowed to wind down now. By November 2018, the Fed will be allowing $50B a month to mature that will have to be financed by the treasury with new paper.
High yield could be the next pillar in the market to crack, warns technician: CNBC In my opinion, the yield spread between junk bonds and investment grade bonds is sufficiently low that it makes no sense to me to take on the extra credit risk.
For example, look at the YTMs for this Ashland 4.75% SU bond maturing in 2022 rated Ba3/BB- and this 2.5% TransCanada SU bond maturing in 2022 rated at A3. I own the TransCanada 2022 bond. I still own one bond, originally issued by Hercules, that is now an Ashland obligation, that was bought in 2011. Item # 2 Bought 1 Hercules 6.5% Junior Bond Maturing on 6/30/29 at 86 (6/24/11 Post); Bond Detail.
P&G says Canada denies tariff exemptions, many products hit | Reuters
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The period between 1/1/1966 through 7/31/1982, which is longer than my current life expectancy using the mortality tables, produced a total annual average return of -1.798% adjusted for inflation and before taxes. S&P 500 Return Calculator, with Dividend Reinvestment The total return number includes reinvestment of the dividends.
Another bad period started in August 2000 and lasted through February 2009, when the annual average total return adjusted return was -7.59%. During long term bear markets, there are a lot of up and downs but the end result is that the stock index investment has lost ground with dividends reinvested and adjusted for inflation and before taxes, over a significant period of time. The worst period started before I was born so I missed that one.
The most recent longer term bear markets have had their origins in too much debt. That was certainly the case in the 2008 Near Depression period. The solution to the world having too much debt was to increase the total (government and consumer) over the next ten years by about $70 trillion which is bad enough before you take into account the return of normalized interest rates.
I am estimating that number. It is probably larger. McKinsey came up with a $57 trillion number through the 2014 second quarter or over 4 years ago. Debt and (not much) deleveraging | McKinsey & Company
U.S. government debt can be serviced only by issuing more debt to pay the interest on maturing securities. The annual budget deficit for the current fiscal year is probably going to exceed $800 billion and $1 trillion by 2010. The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028 | Congressional Budget Office
Whatever the number turns out to be, the deficit can only be financed with new debt growing in a parabolic fashion. At some point, the world refuses to belly up to the bar. It is not a question of whether this will happen but when.
The U.S. Treasury through the Federal Reserve has been a major buyer of U.S. debt issued by the U.S. treasury starting with the first QE program in 2009. That pile is being allowed to wind down now. By November 2018, the Fed will be allowing $50B a month to mature that will have to be financed by the treasury with new paper.
High yield could be the next pillar in the market to crack, warns technician: CNBC In my opinion, the yield spread between junk bonds and investment grade bonds is sufficiently low that it makes no sense to me to take on the extra credit risk.
For example, look at the YTMs for this Ashland 4.75% SU bond maturing in 2022 rated Ba3/BB- and this 2.5% TransCanada SU bond maturing in 2022 rated at A3. I own the TransCanada 2022 bond. I still own one bond, originally issued by Hercules, that is now an Ashland obligation, that was bought in 2011. Item # 2 Bought 1 Hercules 6.5% Junior Bond Maturing on 6/30/29 at 86 (6/24/11 Post); Bond Detail.
P&G says Canada denies tariff exemptions, many products hit | Reuters
++++
Trump and Russia:
Dear Comrades:
Я расчищаюсь на своем русском языке в рамках подготовки к слиянию Соединенных Штатов в Российской Федерации. Когда республиканцам удается создавать Соединенные Штаты России, мне интересно, станет ли Путин или Дональд нашим Великим лидером на всю жизнь. Моя идея в этом отношении заключается в том, что они должны бороться за титул. Мои деньги на Влада, чтобы победить. Мой альтернативный метод разрешения заставил их показать их (слово, снятое российскими цензорами or a phrase rumored to be "Mr. Winky"), и тот, у кого самый большой, является победителем.
I meant to say arm wrestle, but I had trouble coming up with the right words in Russian.
My Russian is a little rusty so please excuse anything that failed to make perfect sense in the prior sentences.
Just prior to his two hour one-on-one meeting with Putin, Trump tweeted that the Mueller witch hunt, which just produced twelve indictments against Russian GRU agents for U.S. election interference, and foolish U.S. policies, had resulted in the worse relations with Russia ever.
Of course, in Trump's Alternate Reality Universe inhabited by tens of millions, Russia had nothing to do with the rocky current relationship.
71% of republicans approved of Donald's performance. POLL
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly agreed with Trump's assessment: "We agree" At least our two nations can agree on something.
Yes, all of our leaders prior to the Duck were just stupid, but now we have a stable genius leading us.
Praise the Duck and his Trumpsters for saving us from generations of inexcusably stupid leaders who have simply failed the nation in their inability to even recognize that it is all our fault and Russia is just blameless.
Dana Milbank summed up just how stupid we have been: "We brainlessly criticized Russia when it invaded Georgia and Ukraine. We idiotically protested when Russia poisoned people in Britain. Like dunces, we punished Russians for killing human rights activists. Morons that we are, we complained when Russia shot down a passenger jet. And then, revealing ourselves to be truly daft and inane, we blamed Russia for interfering in our election."
After all, Russia was not responsible for the Crimea Annexation, the U.S. election interference, and their efforts to destabilize Ukraine and countless other democracies. Obama was responsible for all of that. Trump found a way to blame Obama for Putin invading Crimea - CNN; Trump blames Obama for Russian election meddling - POLITICO
‘Shameful,’ ‘disturbing,’ and an 'embarrassment’ — Congress reacts to Trump’s press conference with Putin - MarketWatch
Donald also used the meeting with Vlad to reiterate his contention that "Much of our news media is indeed the enemy of the people". The Trumpsters could not agree more; and no poll is needed to verify that opinion.
The Russian news media outlets, firmly under Vlad's control, were effusive in their praise for Trump who, in their consensus view, has been unfairly maligned in the U.S. by our Fake News Media. Trump wins sympathy from Russian media ahead of summit {The easiest way to control Donald, besides having dirt on him, is to praise him in an embarrassing effusive manner and to never correct or criticize anything that he says or does.}
Donald Trump just can't stop saying nice things about Vladimir Putin - CNN
Donald called the probe into Russia's election interference, which Putin denied, a "disaster for our country".
Putin did admit that he wanted Donald to win the election however, which comes as no surprise, allegedly "because he talked about normalizing relations”. Putin again denies Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election; Trump calls probe a ‘disaster for our country’
In response to a question, Trump said he was not convinced Russia even meddled in the 2016 election. Shock as Trump backs Putin on election meddling at summit | Reuters (hardly a shock); Trump, at Putin’s Side, Questions U.S. Intelligence on 2016 Election - The New York Times; President says Putin denial of election interference was ‘powerful’ - MarketWatch
Transcript: Trump And Putin's Joint Press Conference : NPR
Donald Trump's 'missing' server comments get all of the details wrong | PolitiFact (just more lies from a pathological liar); Fact check: Trump promoted conspiracy theories. Here's the truth.
What can you say other than we need to find that that Uncle Sam fellow and give him a good whipping.
A reference to some indictments of Russian intelligence operatives contains a lot of detail that the Duck will not acknowledge, preferring instead to accept the KGB's version of events.
Donald even thought it was an unbelievable idea for Mueller to cooperate with the KGB in investigating Russia's election interference. Why not just direct Mueller to sit down with Russian intelligence officers and tell them about all of our intelligence sources and methods.
Indictment (7/13/18).pdf; Internet Research Agency Indictment (2/16/18)
Donald was really pleased by his performance:
Trump says summit with Putin was ‘even better’ than NATO meeting as growing number of Republicans criticize his Helsinki comments (NATO countries did not agree to increase their defense spending beyond the promises previously given four years ago during Obama's administration: Trump Nato spending claims in dispute - BBC News)
I understand what the Trumpsters are saying now.
I see the light finally. It has been an admittedly long and difficult road for me. Praise the Lord.
All of the hard evidence provided in those two indictments against Russian operatives and entities, which is probably just the tip of iceberg, is part of the Deep State Conspiracy against the Duck hatched out of the same pizza parlor in D.C. where Hillary ran her child trafficking ring. Yea man, Lock Her Up and where is that DNC server and those Hillary emails anyhoo. I can't wait for Devin Nunes (R-CA), Mark Meadows (R-NC) and Jim Jordan (R-OH) to launch an investigation into this latest nefarious Hillary scheme disclosed by Vlad himself. (note: the DNC server is not missing. The FBI did accept a forensic analysis by a third party firm)
Trump attacks Mueller at joint news conference with Putin, advances conspiracy theories; Fact check: Trump promoted conspiracy theories. Here's the truth.
Trump walks into a 'Russian trap' before Putin meeting: Ex-ambassador
Outrage at Trump performance with Putin: Former CIA Director Calls it "nothing short of treasonous".
That tweet is over the top IMO. There is no hard proof that Trump has been compromised by Russia or that he is Russia's Manchurian candidate. That is not equivalent to being an exoneration of any kind. We may never know one way or the other. It is reasonable now to be at least deeply suspicious. Analysis: The growing Trump-Putin kompromat question I am unaware of a single example where a large number of American citizens believed that a U.S. President had been coopted by a hostile foreign power. You would have to go back to the treason charges made in 1807 against a former Vice President, Aaron Burr, the guy who killed Alexander Hamilton in a duel, to find such traitor and treason rumblings about either a President or a Vice-President, either currently in office or out of office. Aaron Burr’s Notorious Treason Case - HISTORY
There is evidence that Trump has been saying a lot of things about our traditional western allies that Putin would want a U.S. President to say.
A number of Trump remarks could have just as easily been spoken by Putin; and both men share a common contempt for the free press and other institutions essential to a properly functioning democracy.
Is Donald Putin's "poodle" as some have claimed? I do not want to offend poodles so I would prefer to insert "lap dog". At a minimum, I would characterize Trump's most recent foreign country excursion to be without question the worst performance by a U.S. President in my lifetime, but then that is what I expect from Donald.
CNN's Cooper calls Trump's summit performance 'disgraceful' - StarTribune.com We can now all rest and relax. Vlad denied that Russia had any compromising information on the Duck, calling such allegations "utter nonsense". It only looks like the Duck is carrying Putin's water.
McCain continued to be one of the few republican politicians willing to criticize Donald in any meaningful way, calling the Duck's performance in Russia “one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory” and "pathetic" adding that no "prior president has ever abased himself more abjectly before a tyrant. John McCain says Trump abased himself before Putin at summit
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) agrees with Donald that U.S. intelligence agencies have it all wrong and the KGB is right. Rand Paul sides with Trump over US intel - CNN Video
Only a handful of republican politicians will stand up to Trump. You can count them on the fingers of one hand and have several left over when excluding those that are retiring this year rather than losing to a Trumpster in a primary challenge. You could probably play the clarinet with the left over fingers.
There is zero daylight between Trump and virtually all republican politicians.
90% of republicans approve of Trump: Trump Job Approval at 90% among republicans The Trumpsters are in absolute and unquestionable control of the GOP which represents Trump's values and policies, both domestic and international.
Republicans dismiss criticisms of Trump by calling them collectively the Trump Derangement Syndrome, which is the Trump way of deflecting factual criticism by attacking the critic. It is far easier to go through life dismissing facts as untrue and to accept reality creations and demonstrably false statements as true. It makes everything much more simple.
The man who has seen Trump's tax returns says that we need to see them now. A New Reason for Trump to Release His Tax Returns: Helsinki - Bloomberg
Trump Sheds All Notions of How a President Should Conduct Himself Abroad.
Why Russian officials were gleeful at Trump's diplomatic train wreck
George Will's take: Trump is a sad, embarrassing wreck of a man - The Washington Post
Even if one accepts that he meant to say "wouldn't" rather than "would" (see transcript above), the Duck needs to be judged by the totality of what he said in foreign countries over the past week or so. Ex-CIA chief Michael Hayden: I'm laughing at Trump (the statement as revised is now a double negative)
In doing his mea culpa yesterday, he could not resist saying that it could have been a lot of people who interfered with the election besides Russia {Trump Quote from Yesterday: "I accept our intelligence community’s conclusion that Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election took place. It could be other people also. There’s a lot of people out there. There was no collusion at all, and people have seen that and they’ve seen that strongly." emphasis added} I would call that as saying it could have been Russia or it could have been just about anybody other than Russia which is what he has been saying for over a year now.
(e.g. July 2017: “I think it was Russia, and I think it could have been other people in other countries. Could have been a lot of people interfered.” He then attacks the news media and Obama and comes back to say the following: “I think it was Russia, but I think it was probably other people and/or countries. I see nothing wrong with that statement. Nobody really knows. Nobody really knows for sure.” (emphasis added) Trump Downplays Russian Election Meddling Yet Again)
Amanda Carpenter, a conservative Never Trump republican, demonstrates an understanding of the Trump creature in her book Gaslighting America: Why We Love It When Trump Lies to Us.
I’m a Republican. Why Is My Party Gaslighting America? - POLITICO Magazine (my reply to this author, who is Ms. Carpenter, is that the GOP has been moving toward Know Nothing Trumpism for years, where reality creations are the norm and facts that contradict those creations are Fake News. While I am not that familiar with Ms Carpenter's beliefs, the fact that she worked for Senator Ted Cruz and the former tea party Senator Jim Demint suggests that we would find almost no other common ground on many other important issues, which is fine. DeMint is the kind of guy who wants to privatize Social Security; take a dump on Medicare and Medicaid and is to the far right on all social issues.)
11 Warning Signs of Gaslighting | Psychology Today
Gaslight (1944) - IMDb (use of the gaslighting process)
None of this or anything else will have any negative impact on Trump's approval rating among republicans. His approval rating did tick up t0 43% in the week ending 6/15 from 41% in the prior week, based on Gallups weekly poll.
++
Trump and the EU:
Trump: The European Union is our ‘foe’ - MarketWatch;
Trump, in interview with CBS News, says "I think the European Union is a foe" ahead of Putin meeting in Helsinki - CBS News
When ask about who were the U.S. foes, the Duck did not hesitate to mention the EU first and foremost. Apparently, this has something to do with Donald's understanding of trade relationships.
The EU imposes a trade weighted average 3% tariff on U.S. exports according to the WTO, which is viewed by Trump as tantamount to an act of war against the U.S. Is the European Union a 'protectionist racket'? - BBC News
Sure the EU imposes a 10% tariff on U.S. automobile exports compared to the U.S. at 2.5%.
What Trump never says when talking about that difference is that the U.S. has a 25% tariff on pickup imports.
The U.S. has a 14% tariff on train carriages whereas the EU has a 1.7% tariff on that product. Then the U.S. has a 350% tariff on tobacco, 9% on chocolate, 20% on key milk products, and 130% on peanuts. Factsheet on Trade in goods and customs duties in TTIP; EU tariffs Europe has a 17% tariff on apples and 20% on grapes.
The situation is more complex than Trump will ever convey to the American people, which is just a small part of his tireless efforts to mislead the public with demonstrably false information. All countries have tariff barriers to varying decrees.
Trump is transparently attemptiong to condition the easily manipulated True Believers to be pro-Russia, anti-EU and anti-NATO. Trump’s NATO summit antics were great for Putin - Vox; Trump is Training His Base to Hate NATO and Like Putin
Putin is about as trustworthy as Trump, which is to say that both have zero credibility, and both do think alike in important ways that are inconsistent with the primary principles of western democracies. So I at least understand that the Duck has a natural affinity for Putin and finds leaders of western democracies and a free press annoying and worthy of his disdain.
++
Trump and the U.K:
Dear Comrades:
Я расчищаюсь на своем русском языке в рамках подготовки к слиянию Соединенных Штатов в Российской Федерации. Когда республиканцам удается создавать Соединенные Штаты России, мне интересно, станет ли Путин или Дональд нашим Великим лидером на всю жизнь. Моя идея в этом отношении заключается в том, что они должны бороться за титул. Мои деньги на Влада, чтобы победить. Мой альтернативный метод разрешения заставил их показать их (слово, снятое российскими цензорами or a phrase rumored to be "Mr. Winky"), и тот, у кого самый большой, является победителем.
I meant to say arm wrestle, but I had trouble coming up with the right words in Russian.
My Russian is a little rusty so please excuse anything that failed to make perfect sense in the prior sentences.
Just prior to his two hour one-on-one meeting with Putin, Trump tweeted that the Mueller witch hunt, which just produced twelve indictments against Russian GRU agents for U.S. election interference, and foolish U.S. policies, had resulted in the worse relations with Russia ever.
Of course, in Trump's Alternate Reality Universe inhabited by tens of millions, Russia had nothing to do with the rocky current relationship.
71% of republicans approved of Donald's performance. POLL
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly agreed with Trump's assessment: "We agree" At least our two nations can agree on something.
Yes, all of our leaders prior to the Duck were just stupid, but now we have a stable genius leading us.
Praise the Duck and his Trumpsters for saving us from generations of inexcusably stupid leaders who have simply failed the nation in their inability to even recognize that it is all our fault and Russia is just blameless.
Dana Milbank summed up just how stupid we have been: "We brainlessly criticized Russia when it invaded Georgia and Ukraine. We idiotically protested when Russia poisoned people in Britain. Like dunces, we punished Russians for killing human rights activists. Morons that we are, we complained when Russia shot down a passenger jet. And then, revealing ourselves to be truly daft and inane, we blamed Russia for interfering in our election."
After all, Russia was not responsible for the Crimea Annexation, the U.S. election interference, and their efforts to destabilize Ukraine and countless other democracies. Obama was responsible for all of that. Trump found a way to blame Obama for Putin invading Crimea - CNN; Trump blames Obama for Russian election meddling - POLITICO
‘Shameful,’ ‘disturbing,’ and an 'embarrassment’ — Congress reacts to Trump’s press conference with Putin - MarketWatch
Donald also used the meeting with Vlad to reiterate his contention that "Much of our news media is indeed the enemy of the people". The Trumpsters could not agree more; and no poll is needed to verify that opinion.
The Russian news media outlets, firmly under Vlad's control, were effusive in their praise for Trump who, in their consensus view, has been unfairly maligned in the U.S. by our Fake News Media. Trump wins sympathy from Russian media ahead of summit {The easiest way to control Donald, besides having dirt on him, is to praise him in an embarrassing effusive manner and to never correct or criticize anything that he says or does.}
Donald Trump just can't stop saying nice things about Vladimir Putin - CNN
Donald called the probe into Russia's election interference, which Putin denied, a "disaster for our country".
Putin did admit that he wanted Donald to win the election however, which comes as no surprise, allegedly "because he talked about normalizing relations”. Putin again denies Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election; Trump calls probe a ‘disaster for our country’
In response to a question, Trump said he was not convinced Russia even meddled in the 2016 election. Shock as Trump backs Putin on election meddling at summit | Reuters (hardly a shock); Trump, at Putin’s Side, Questions U.S. Intelligence on 2016 Election - The New York Times; President says Putin denial of election interference was ‘powerful’ - MarketWatch
Transcript: Trump And Putin's Joint Press Conference : NPR
Donald Trump's 'missing' server comments get all of the details wrong | PolitiFact (just more lies from a pathological liar); Fact check: Trump promoted conspiracy theories. Here's the truth.
What can you say other than we need to find that that Uncle Sam fellow and give him a good whipping.
A reference to some indictments of Russian intelligence operatives contains a lot of detail that the Duck will not acknowledge, preferring instead to accept the KGB's version of events.
Donald even thought it was an unbelievable idea for Mueller to cooperate with the KGB in investigating Russia's election interference. Why not just direct Mueller to sit down with Russian intelligence officers and tell them about all of our intelligence sources and methods.
Indictment (7/13/18).pdf; Internet Research Agency Indictment (2/16/18)
Donald was really pleased by his performance:
Trump says summit with Putin was ‘even better’ than NATO meeting as growing number of Republicans criticize his Helsinki comments (NATO countries did not agree to increase their defense spending beyond the promises previously given four years ago during Obama's administration: Trump Nato spending claims in dispute - BBC News)
I understand what the Trumpsters are saying now.
I see the light finally. It has been an admittedly long and difficult road for me. Praise the Lord.
All of the hard evidence provided in those two indictments against Russian operatives and entities, which is probably just the tip of iceberg, is part of the Deep State Conspiracy against the Duck hatched out of the same pizza parlor in D.C. where Hillary ran her child trafficking ring. Yea man, Lock Her Up and where is that DNC server and those Hillary emails anyhoo. I can't wait for Devin Nunes (R-CA), Mark Meadows (R-NC) and Jim Jordan (R-OH) to launch an investigation into this latest nefarious Hillary scheme disclosed by Vlad himself. (note: the DNC server is not missing. The FBI did accept a forensic analysis by a third party firm)
Trump attacks Mueller at joint news conference with Putin, advances conspiracy theories; Fact check: Trump promoted conspiracy theories. Here's the truth.
Trump walks into a 'Russian trap' before Putin meeting: Ex-ambassador
Outrage at Trump performance with Putin: Former CIA Director Calls it "nothing short of treasonous".
That tweet is over the top IMO. There is no hard proof that Trump has been compromised by Russia or that he is Russia's Manchurian candidate. That is not equivalent to being an exoneration of any kind. We may never know one way or the other. It is reasonable now to be at least deeply suspicious. Analysis: The growing Trump-Putin kompromat question I am unaware of a single example where a large number of American citizens believed that a U.S. President had been coopted by a hostile foreign power. You would have to go back to the treason charges made in 1807 against a former Vice President, Aaron Burr, the guy who killed Alexander Hamilton in a duel, to find such traitor and treason rumblings about either a President or a Vice-President, either currently in office or out of office. Aaron Burr’s Notorious Treason Case - HISTORY
There is evidence that Trump has been saying a lot of things about our traditional western allies that Putin would want a U.S. President to say.
A number of Trump remarks could have just as easily been spoken by Putin; and both men share a common contempt for the free press and other institutions essential to a properly functioning democracy.
Is Donald Putin's "poodle" as some have claimed? I do not want to offend poodles so I would prefer to insert "lap dog". At a minimum, I would characterize Trump's most recent foreign country excursion to be without question the worst performance by a U.S. President in my lifetime, but then that is what I expect from Donald.
CNN's Cooper calls Trump's summit performance 'disgraceful' - StarTribune.com We can now all rest and relax. Vlad denied that Russia had any compromising information on the Duck, calling such allegations "utter nonsense". It only looks like the Duck is carrying Putin's water.
McCain continued to be one of the few republican politicians willing to criticize Donald in any meaningful way, calling the Duck's performance in Russia “one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory” and "pathetic" adding that no "prior president has ever abased himself more abjectly before a tyrant. John McCain says Trump abased himself before Putin at summit
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) agrees with Donald that U.S. intelligence agencies have it all wrong and the KGB is right. Rand Paul sides with Trump over US intel - CNN Video
Only a handful of republican politicians will stand up to Trump. You can count them on the fingers of one hand and have several left over when excluding those that are retiring this year rather than losing to a Trumpster in a primary challenge. You could probably play the clarinet with the left over fingers.
There is zero daylight between Trump and virtually all republican politicians.
90% of republicans approve of Trump: Trump Job Approval at 90% among republicans The Trumpsters are in absolute and unquestionable control of the GOP which represents Trump's values and policies, both domestic and international.
Republicans dismiss criticisms of Trump by calling them collectively the Trump Derangement Syndrome, which is the Trump way of deflecting factual criticism by attacking the critic. It is far easier to go through life dismissing facts as untrue and to accept reality creations and demonstrably false statements as true. It makes everything much more simple.
The man who has seen Trump's tax returns says that we need to see them now. A New Reason for Trump to Release His Tax Returns: Helsinki - Bloomberg
Why Russian officials were gleeful at Trump's diplomatic train wreck
George Will's take: Trump is a sad, embarrassing wreck of a man - The Washington Post
Even if one accepts that he meant to say "wouldn't" rather than "would" (see transcript above), the Duck needs to be judged by the totality of what he said in foreign countries over the past week or so. Ex-CIA chief Michael Hayden: I'm laughing at Trump (the statement as revised is now a double negative)
In doing his mea culpa yesterday, he could not resist saying that it could have been a lot of people who interfered with the election besides Russia {Trump Quote from Yesterday: "I accept our intelligence community’s conclusion that Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election took place. It could be other people also. There’s a lot of people out there. There was no collusion at all, and people have seen that and they’ve seen that strongly." emphasis added} I would call that as saying it could have been Russia or it could have been just about anybody other than Russia which is what he has been saying for over a year now.
(e.g. July 2017: “I think it was Russia, and I think it could have been other people in other countries. Could have been a lot of people interfered.” He then attacks the news media and Obama and comes back to say the following: “I think it was Russia, but I think it was probably other people and/or countries. I see nothing wrong with that statement. Nobody really knows. Nobody really knows for sure.” (emphasis added) Trump Downplays Russian Election Meddling Yet Again)
Amanda Carpenter, a conservative Never Trump republican, demonstrates an understanding of the Trump creature in her book Gaslighting America: Why We Love It When Trump Lies to Us.
I’m a Republican. Why Is My Party Gaslighting America? - POLITICO Magazine (my reply to this author, who is Ms. Carpenter, is that the GOP has been moving toward Know Nothing Trumpism for years, where reality creations are the norm and facts that contradict those creations are Fake News. While I am not that familiar with Ms Carpenter's beliefs, the fact that she worked for Senator Ted Cruz and the former tea party Senator Jim Demint suggests that we would find almost no other common ground on many other important issues, which is fine. DeMint is the kind of guy who wants to privatize Social Security; take a dump on Medicare and Medicaid and is to the far right on all social issues.)
11 Warning Signs of Gaslighting | Psychology Today
Gaslight (1944) - IMDb (use of the gaslighting process)
None of this or anything else will have any negative impact on Trump's approval rating among republicans. His approval rating did tick up t0 43% in the week ending 6/15 from 41% in the prior week, based on Gallups weekly poll.
++
Trump and the EU:
Trump: The European Union is our ‘foe’ - MarketWatch;
Trump, in interview with CBS News, says "I think the European Union is a foe" ahead of Putin meeting in Helsinki - CBS News
When ask about who were the U.S. foes, the Duck did not hesitate to mention the EU first and foremost. Apparently, this has something to do with Donald's understanding of trade relationships.
The EU imposes a trade weighted average 3% tariff on U.S. exports according to the WTO, which is viewed by Trump as tantamount to an act of war against the U.S. Is the European Union a 'protectionist racket'? - BBC News
Sure the EU imposes a 10% tariff on U.S. automobile exports compared to the U.S. at 2.5%.
What Trump never says when talking about that difference is that the U.S. has a 25% tariff on pickup imports.
The U.S. has a 14% tariff on train carriages whereas the EU has a 1.7% tariff on that product. Then the U.S. has a 350% tariff on tobacco, 9% on chocolate, 20% on key milk products, and 130% on peanuts. Factsheet on Trade in goods and customs duties in TTIP; EU tariffs Europe has a 17% tariff on apples and 20% on grapes.
The situation is more complex than Trump will ever convey to the American people, which is just a small part of his tireless efforts to mislead the public with demonstrably false information. All countries have tariff barriers to varying decrees.
Trump is transparently attemptiong to condition the easily manipulated True Believers to be pro-Russia, anti-EU and anti-NATO. Trump’s NATO summit antics were great for Putin - Vox; Trump is Training His Base to Hate NATO and Like Putin
Putin is about as trustworthy as Trump, which is to say that both have zero credibility, and both do think alike in important ways that are inconsistent with the primary principles of western democracies. So I at least understand that the Duck has a natural affinity for Putin and finds leaders of western democracies and a free press annoying and worthy of his disdain.
++
Trump and the U.K:
Trump rips Theresa May, says ‘soft’ Brexit would ‘kill’ any future U.S.-U.K trade deal - MarketWatch
Trump blasts Prime Minister Theresa May in interview published during his first official visit to Britain - The Washington Post (Donald like Boris Johnson much better than May since Boris is effusive in his praise for Donald: “I have a lot of respect for Boris. He obviously likes me and says very good things about me.” Donald also claimed to be a "stable genius" again, which I suppose is better than an unstable one. He needs to submit to an IQ test. The easiest way for a foreign leader to manipulate the Duck is through effusive praise coupled with zero criticism); I’m A Very Stable Genius,’ President Donald Trump Says As NATO Summit Ends | NBC News - YouTube
President Trump denies he criticized British prime minister after criticizing her - CNN Perhaps, Donald needs to say something and then wait longer before he denies saying it. When the statement and denial are in the same sentence or close together in time, even the True Believers may start to question whether Donald is such an honest straight shooter who tells it like it is. Maybe some will even start to question Donald as a role model for their young children.
Trump blasts Prime Minister Theresa May in interview published during his first official visit to Britain - The Washington Post (Donald like Boris Johnson much better than May since Boris is effusive in his praise for Donald: “I have a lot of respect for Boris. He obviously likes me and says very good things about me.” Donald also claimed to be a "stable genius" again, which I suppose is better than an unstable one. He needs to submit to an IQ test. The easiest way for a foreign leader to manipulate the Duck is through effusive praise coupled with zero criticism); I’m A Very Stable Genius,’ President Donald Trump Says As NATO Summit Ends | NBC News - YouTube
President Trump denies he criticized British prime minister after criticizing her - CNN Perhaps, Donald needs to say something and then wait longer before he denies saying it. When the statement and denial are in the same sentence or close together in time, even the True Believers may start to question whether Donald is such an honest straight shooter who tells it like it is. Maybe some will even start to question Donald as a role model for their young children.
I told May how to do Brexit but she wrecked it — the US trade deal is off, says Donald Trump; Even May's UK opponents are backing her against Trump: CNBC The opposition party said that Trump was "extraordinarily rude". It is hardly surprising to anyone that Donald enjoys being mean and rude, a predilection which, according to the Trumpsters, express his "authenticity" rather than the Duck just being a jerk and a wind bag full of B.S.) Donald had to walk back that comment within 24 hours. It was outrageous even by his standards.
Donald claims that he told the U.K PM Theresa May how to handle to the Brexit plan without providing any details of his advice. The P.M. has now disclosed what Donald told her. Donald's advice was to sue the EU rather than to negotiate which is idiotic advice. Theresa May: Donald Trump told me to sue the EU
I will not bother to count the number of times the uncouth and quintessential Ugly American insulted Queen Elizabeth. Twitter counts ways President Trump 'insulted' Queen Elizabeth Just about any dunce knows better to walk in front of the Queen while reviewing the honor guard. Trump breaks royal etiquette, walks in front of Queen - YouTube
After repeatedly insulting his U.K. hosts, Donald traveled to Scotland to promote his money losing golf course at Turnberry. In Trump’s U.K. Visit, Some See ‘Infomercial’ for Money-Losing Golf Resort - The New York Times; CREW: Trump using visit to Scotland as ‘infomercial’ for golf club | TheHill
Donald is using the Presidency to enrich himself. In this particular case, the taxpayers are footing about a $6.6 million dollar bill so that the Duck can waddle along the Turnberry links for one round. Trump is set for a $6.6 million round of golf: CNBC
The Trumpsters were up in arms when Obama took the afternoon off to play at the Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, MD. just a short motorcade drive from the White House. Trump was livid at the times Obama played golf telling his supporters that he would not have time to play golf including at Turnberry.
Trump won't play golf as President. Believe me... - YouTube (just a big fat bag harboring nothing more than a bountiful supply of self generating Bull Shit, yet republicans view him to be a straight shooter who tells it like it is)
Donald is on pace to 650 rounds of golf if he is re-elected to another four year term. President Donald Trump on pace for 650-plus rounds of golf as Commander-in-Chief
He is of course playing for more golf than Obama and his excursions have cost the taxpayers over $69M so far, Trump Golf Count, but that is okay since it is Donald rather than a democrat. The Democrat can be booed by the Trumpsters while they applaud Donald's promise to work so hard at being President that he will not have any time to play at all.
Trump Spent Almost One-Third Of His Presidency At His Own Properties, Golfed More Than Obama (12/27/17 Newsweek);
And, besides, Donald said that playing golf was his only exercise which explains I suppose why Melania sleeps in an different room.
More Trump Lies and Prevarications:
It is a full time occupation to keep up with Donald's false statements. The only reasonable assumption to make is that he is lying until proven beyond a reasonable doubt that he managed to tell the truth.
Just more Donald lies: John Kerry rebuts Trump, says NATO spending was up, not down | PolitiFact ("Total defense spending by the European members rose 8 percent or $20 billion dollars from 2014 to 2017."); Trump falsely claims NATO countries owe United States money for defense spending | PolitiFact The U.S. does spend a higher percentage of GDP, but that money would be spent irrespective of spending by other Nato members. Ask a republican whether they want to cut the defense budget to 2% of GDP.
Most of Donald's rhetoric about NATO could be coming from Putin's mouth.
The U.S. is the only country to invoke the NATO mutual defense Article 5 to date, and that was done in response to 9/11. NATO countries sent troops and other personnel to aid the U.S. in the War in Afghanistan (2001–present). At its height, NATO allies provided 130K personnel with troops from 50 NATO countries. NATO and Afghanistan The largest contributor of combat troops was the U.K who the Duck just insulted several times.
Donald claims that he told the U.K PM Theresa May how to handle to the Brexit plan without providing any details of his advice. The P.M. has now disclosed what Donald told her. Donald's advice was to sue the EU rather than to negotiate which is idiotic advice. Theresa May: Donald Trump told me to sue the EU
I will not bother to count the number of times the uncouth and quintessential Ugly American insulted Queen Elizabeth. Twitter counts ways President Trump 'insulted' Queen Elizabeth Just about any dunce knows better to walk in front of the Queen while reviewing the honor guard. Trump breaks royal etiquette, walks in front of Queen - YouTube
After repeatedly insulting his U.K. hosts, Donald traveled to Scotland to promote his money losing golf course at Turnberry. In Trump’s U.K. Visit, Some See ‘Infomercial’ for Money-Losing Golf Resort - The New York Times; CREW: Trump using visit to Scotland as ‘infomercial’ for golf club | TheHill
Donald is using the Presidency to enrich himself. In this particular case, the taxpayers are footing about a $6.6 million dollar bill so that the Duck can waddle along the Turnberry links for one round. Trump is set for a $6.6 million round of golf: CNBC
The Trumpsters were up in arms when Obama took the afternoon off to play at the Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, MD. just a short motorcade drive from the White House. Trump was livid at the times Obama played golf telling his supporters that he would not have time to play golf including at Turnberry.
Trump won't play golf as President. Believe me... - YouTube (just a big fat bag harboring nothing more than a bountiful supply of self generating Bull Shit, yet republicans view him to be a straight shooter who tells it like it is)
Donald is on pace to 650 rounds of golf if he is re-elected to another four year term. President Donald Trump on pace for 650-plus rounds of golf as Commander-in-Chief
He is of course playing for more golf than Obama and his excursions have cost the taxpayers over $69M so far, Trump Golf Count, but that is okay since it is Donald rather than a democrat. The Democrat can be booed by the Trumpsters while they applaud Donald's promise to work so hard at being President that he will not have any time to play at all.
Trump Spent Almost One-Third Of His Presidency At His Own Properties, Golfed More Than Obama (12/27/17 Newsweek);
And, besides, Donald said that playing golf was his only exercise which explains I suppose why Melania sleeps in an different room.
More Trump Lies and Prevarications:
It is a full time occupation to keep up with Donald's false statements. The only reasonable assumption to make is that he is lying until proven beyond a reasonable doubt that he managed to tell the truth.
Just more Donald lies: John Kerry rebuts Trump, says NATO spending was up, not down | PolitiFact ("Total defense spending by the European members rose 8 percent or $20 billion dollars from 2014 to 2017."); Trump falsely claims NATO countries owe United States money for defense spending | PolitiFact The U.S. does spend a higher percentage of GDP, but that money would be spent irrespective of spending by other Nato members. Ask a republican whether they want to cut the defense budget to 2% of GDP.
Most of Donald's rhetoric about NATO could be coming from Putin's mouth.
The U.S. is the only country to invoke the NATO mutual defense Article 5 to date, and that was done in response to 9/11. NATO countries sent troops and other personnel to aid the U.S. in the War in Afghanistan (2001–present). At its height, NATO allies provided 130K personnel with troops from 50 NATO countries. NATO and Afghanistan The largest contributor of combat troops was the U.K who the Duck just insulted several times.
+++++
1. Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy:
A. Sold 83+ SIR at $23.2-Used Commission Free Trade:
Profit Snapshot: $101.78
Closing Price Yesterday: SIR $22.31 -$0.13 -0.58%
The problem is shown in the snapshot.
I started this small lot buying program by buying 50 shares at $23.1, which, in retrospect, was a poor entry point for this decidedly out-of-favor, though high yielding, REIT. Bought Back 50 SIR at $23.1-Used Commission Free Trade (1/21/18 Post) The lowest purchase price was at $18.5 made less than two months after the 50 share purchase.
I also own 20+ shares in my Fidelity account where I have an average cost per share of $19.17. The dividend yield at that average cost number is about 10.64%.
Purchases are subject to the small ball purchase restrictions. The next purchase would have to be below $18.61. Item # 1.D. Bought 10 SIR at $18.96 and 5 at $18.61 (3/8/18 Post)
Last Round-Trips: Item 6.A. Sold 50 SIR at $25.28 (11/20/17 Post)-Item # 6.A. Bought 50 SIR at $22.95 (9/11/17 Post); Item # 5 Sold 50 SIR at $25.17 (8/4/12 Post)-Item # 2 Bought 50 SIR at $21.86 (5/29/12 Post)
I have been increasing my exposure to SIR's senior unsecured bonds. My last purchase was 2 SIR 3.6% SU bonds maturing on 2/1/20: Item # 3.D. (6/15/18 Post)
Management: External
Dividend: Quarterly at $.51 per share
Trading Profits to Date: +$377.84
Trading Goal: Collect the dividend and sell at whatever profit is available
Website: Select Income REIT - Home
Select Income REIT - Properties
Last Earnings Report: Q/E 3/31/18
Select Income REIT Announces First Quarter 2018 Results
2. Sold 100 XEG:CA at C$13.27 (C$ IB Commission):
Quote: iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF Overview
Sponsor's website: iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF | XEG
TOP Ten Holdings:
Cash Distribution History:
This was not a successful trade. I at least managed to avoid a loss and had a positive total return. If I am going to end up with a lackluster return, it is better than the investment is insignificant which was the case with this Canadian ETF.
I decided to go with the higher yielding Invesco Canadian Energy Income ETF (ENY) for exposure to the Canadian energy sector. I recently added to that position and currently own 362+ shares. Item # 1.D. Added 20 ENY at $7.87 Used Commission Free Trade (6/21/18 Post) I am reinvesting the dividend.
There are two main differences between the two ETFs. ENY is priced in USDs and traded in the U.S. whereas XEG:CA is an Canadian ETF that is priced in USDs. Unlike XEG:CA, which owns only E & P stocks, ENY also owns the higher yielding energy infrastructure stocks.
Profit Snapshot: +C$27
A. Sold 83+ SIR at $23.2-Used Commission Free Trade:
Profit Snapshot: $101.78
Closing Price Yesterday: SIR $22.31 -$0.13 -0.58%
The problem is shown in the snapshot.
I started this small lot buying program by buying 50 shares at $23.1, which, in retrospect, was a poor entry point for this decidedly out-of-favor, though high yielding, REIT. Bought Back 50 SIR at $23.1-Used Commission Free Trade (1/21/18 Post) The lowest purchase price was at $18.5 made less than two months after the 50 share purchase.
I also own 20+ shares in my Fidelity account where I have an average cost per share of $19.17. The dividend yield at that average cost number is about 10.64%.
Purchases are subject to the small ball purchase restrictions. The next purchase would have to be below $18.61. Item # 1.D. Bought 10 SIR at $18.96 and 5 at $18.61 (3/8/18 Post)
Last Round-Trips: Item 6.A. Sold 50 SIR at $25.28 (11/20/17 Post)-Item # 6.A. Bought 50 SIR at $22.95 (9/11/17 Post); Item # 5 Sold 50 SIR at $25.17 (8/4/12 Post)-Item # 2 Bought 50 SIR at $21.86 (5/29/12 Post)
I have been increasing my exposure to SIR's senior unsecured bonds. My last purchase was 2 SIR 3.6% SU bonds maturing on 2/1/20: Item # 3.D. (6/15/18 Post)
Management: External
Dividend: Quarterly at $.51 per share
Trading Profits to Date: +$377.84
Trading Goal: Collect the dividend and sell at whatever profit is available
Website: Select Income REIT - Home
Select Income REIT - Properties
Last Earnings Report: Q/E 3/31/18
Select Income REIT Announces First Quarter 2018 Results
2. Sold 100 XEG:CA at C$13.27 (C$ IB Commission):
Quote: iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF Overview
Sponsor's website: iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF | XEG
TOP Ten Holdings:
Cash Distribution History:
This was not a successful trade. I at least managed to avoid a loss and had a positive total return. If I am going to end up with a lackluster return, it is better than the investment is insignificant which was the case with this Canadian ETF.
I decided to go with the higher yielding Invesco Canadian Energy Income ETF (ENY) for exposure to the Canadian energy sector. I recently added to that position and currently own 362+ shares. Item # 1.D. Added 20 ENY at $7.87 Used Commission Free Trade (6/21/18 Post) I am reinvesting the dividend.
There are two main differences between the two ETFs. ENY is priced in USDs and traded in the U.S. whereas XEG:CA is an Canadian ETF that is priced in USDs. Unlike XEG:CA, which owns only E & P stocks, ENY also owns the higher yielding energy infrastructure stocks.
Profit Snapshot: +C$27
In the energy sector fund category, I also own 193+ shares of the CEF PEO, last discussed in this post:
3. Eliminated the Synthetic Floater GJP:
A. Sold 100 GJP at $23.06-Used Commission Free Trade:
2 Year History This Account:
Closing Price Yesterday: GJP $22.57 -$0.10 -0.44%
Profit Snapshot: +$108.29
Item # 2.A. Bought 50 GJP at $21.35 (4/26/17 Post)
Item # 2.C. Added 50 GJP at $22.6 (3/29/18)(detailed description can be found here)
GJP is a Synthetic Floater in the Trust Certificate legal form of ownership. It is an Exchange Traded Bond.
The 3% minimum coupon is increased when the three month T. Bill rate exceeds 1.85%.
Since the synthetic floaters are in the trust certificate form of legal ownership, I include round trip snapshots in this post: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Trust Certificates: New Gateway Post
B. Sold 50 GJP at $23 ($1 Commission at IB):
Profit Snapshot: +$147.98
Item # 4 Bought 50 Back Back 50 GJP at $20-Update For Exchange Traded Bond And Preferred Stock Basket Strategy As Of April 1, 2016 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
Other Discussions:
Item # 1 Sold 100 of the Synthetic Floater GJP at $23.2: ROTH IRA (12/5/11 Post)-Bought Back Synthetic Floater GJP at 22.25-ROTH IRA March 2011
GJP Realized Gains To Date: $1,080.27 ($824 prior trades)
Trust Certificates Profit to Date: $31,500.89
Trust Certificates are largely extant now due to redemptions by the call warrant owners who created the Grantor Trusts.
Trust Certificates are largely extant now due to redemptions by the call warrant owners who created the Grantor Trusts.
4. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 Healthcare Trust of America Holdings LP 3.375% SU Bonds Maturing on 7/15/21-In a Roth IRA Account:
FINRA PAGE: Bond Detail (Prospectus linked)
Issuer: Operating Entity for Healthcare Trust of America Inc. (HTA) who guarantees the notes:
HTA 2017 Annual Report (debt discussed starting at page 92)
The last bond offering was in June 2017: Prospectus
Credit Ratings:
Bought at a Total Cost of 99.853 (with $ 4 brokerage commission)
YTM at TC Then at 3.427%
Current Yield at TC at 3.38%
On the day of my purchase the three year treasury yield closed at a 2.625% yield. 2018 Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
On a tax free basis, and before inflation, a 3.43% yield will double in about 20.55 years. Estimate Compound Interest That rate of return, which is before inflation and after taxes, will be insufficient for most households to meet their financial needs.
Realistic estimates of what will be needed will drive in significant part the risks that will be necessary to take over a lifetime.
At some point, some households will reach an age and a financial condition where preservation of capital and reliable income generation become far more important than capital appreciation. Then, this kind of investment that produces tax free income in a Roth IRA starts to make more sense.
B. Bought 1 Dominion Energy 2.579% Junior Unsecured Bond Maturing on 7/1/20:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Prospectus
Issuer: Dominion Energy Inc. (D)
D Analyst Estimates
Press Release: Earnings for the Q/E 3/31/18
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/18
Dominion SEC Filings
Credit Ratings:
Fitch Rates Dominion Energy's Senior Notes 'BBB+' (5/30/18); Fitch Upgrades Dominion Energy's Remarketed Junior Sub Notes Rating to 'BBB' (5/12/17)
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.825
YTM at TC Then at 3.198%
Current Yield at TC = 2.6097%
C. Bought 2 AON 2.8% SU Bonds Maturing on 3/15/21:
I now own 4.
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Prospectus
Issuer: Aon PLC (AON)
AON Analyst Estimates
Aon Reports First Quarter 2018 Results
AON SEC Filings
AON 2017 Annual Report (debt discussed and listed starting at page 71)
Credit Ratings:
Fitch Affirms Aon's SU Rating at BBB+; Outlook Stable (5/4/18)
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.67 (with $4 Vanguard Commission)
YTM at TC Then at 3.322%
Current Yield at TC = 2.8377%
D. Bought 1 Wells Fargo 3% CD (monthly interest payments) Maturing on 7/31/21 (3 year CD):
E. Bought 1 Treasury 1.5% Coupon Maturing on 1/31/19:
YTM: 2.125%
I now own 4.
This treasury had a slightly higher YTM than CDs maturing in January 2019:
When the treasury provides a higher YTM than a CD, I will generally go with the treasury which is liquid. The treasury yield advantage is more likely to occur when the term is less than 1 year.
B. Bought 1 Dominion Energy 2.579% Junior Unsecured Bond Maturing on 7/1/20:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Prospectus
Issuer: Dominion Energy Inc. (D)
D Analyst Estimates
Press Release: Earnings for the Q/E 3/31/18
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/18
Dominion SEC Filings
Credit Ratings:
Fitch Rates Dominion Energy's Senior Notes 'BBB+' (5/30/18); Fitch Upgrades Dominion Energy's Remarketed Junior Sub Notes Rating to 'BBB' (5/12/17)
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.825
YTM at TC Then at 3.198%
Current Yield at TC = 2.6097%
C. Bought 2 AON 2.8% SU Bonds Maturing on 3/15/21:
I now own 4.
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Prospectus
Issuer: Aon PLC (AON)
AON Analyst Estimates
Aon Reports First Quarter 2018 Results
AON SEC Filings
AON 2017 Annual Report (debt discussed and listed starting at page 71)
Credit Ratings:
Fitch Affirms Aon's SU Rating at BBB+; Outlook Stable (5/4/18)
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.67 (with $4 Vanguard Commission)
YTM at TC Then at 3.322%
Current Yield at TC = 2.8377%
D. Bought 1 Wells Fargo 3% CD (monthly interest payments) Maturing on 7/31/21 (3 year CD):
E. Bought 1 Treasury 1.5% Coupon Maturing on 1/31/19:
YTM: 2.125%
This treasury had a slightly higher YTM than CDs maturing in January 2019:
 |
| Snapshot as of 7/10/18 |
5. Tennessee Municipal Bonds:
A. Bought 5 Metropolitan Nashville 2.5% GO Bonds Maturing on 1/1/29:
Emma Page
This is what a Vanguard confirmation looks like:
Since this bond just paid its semi-annual interest payment, I only had to pay the seller $3.13 in accrued interest. When the issuer makes its next payment, I will receive the entire payment including that $3.13. If this was an exchange traded bond (one that trades on the stock exchange like a common stock), which trades flat, I would not have paid any accrued interest to the seller.
I now own 10 bonds. This last 5 bond purchase was an average down.
The Metropolitan Government of Nashville includes all of Davidson County Tennessee. Davidson County - Google Maps
Forbes: Nashville, TN
Security:
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at Aa2
S & P at AA
Issuer's Optional Redemption: On or after 7/1/26 at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest
Bought at a Total Cost of 95.419 (includes $10 Vanguard Brokerage Commission)
A. Bought 5 Metropolitan Nashville 2.5% GO Bonds Maturing on 1/1/29:
Emma Page
This is what a Vanguard confirmation looks like:
Since this bond just paid its semi-annual interest payment, I only had to pay the seller $3.13 in accrued interest. When the issuer makes its next payment, I will receive the entire payment including that $3.13. If this was an exchange traded bond (one that trades on the stock exchange like a common stock), which trades flat, I would not have paid any accrued interest to the seller.
I now own 10 bonds. This last 5 bond purchase was an average down.
The Metropolitan Government of Nashville includes all of Davidson County Tennessee. Davidson County - Google Maps
Forbes: Nashville, TN
Security:
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at Aa2
S & P at AA
Issuer's Optional Redemption: On or after 7/1/26 at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest
Bought at a Total Cost of 95.419 (includes $10 Vanguard Brokerage Commission)
YTM at Total Cost Then at 3.013%
Tax Free Current Yield at Total Cost = 2.62%
Current Tennessee Municipal Bond Positions:
Par Value = $280K
Total Cost = $277.03K
Weighted Average Tax Free Yield at TC = 2.99%
Annual Tax Free Income = $8,274
My long bond exposure is primarily in high quality Tennessee municipal bonds.
I will probably wait until 2019 before buying another municipal bond. The general idea is to gradually increase the position until I hit $10K in annual tax free income. I can buy almost $10K in principal amount per year now with the annual interest paid on the current positions.
The municipal bonds that I am buying are far more difficult to sell than the corporate bonds. I would call the Tennessee tax free bonds that I have bought illiquid. I am not saying that they are impossible to sell.
The most likely course of action will be that all of them will be held to maturity. Due to the absence of an active market, I am not devoting any cash to their purchase that may be needed prior to their respective maturities. The first batch matures in 2026-2029.
Tax Free Current Yield at Total Cost = 2.62%
Current Tennessee Municipal Bond Positions:
Par Value = $280K
Total Cost = $277.03K
Weighted Average Tax Free Yield at TC = 2.99%
Annual Tax Free Income = $8,274
My long bond exposure is primarily in high quality Tennessee municipal bonds.
I will probably wait until 2019 before buying another municipal bond. The general idea is to gradually increase the position until I hit $10K in annual tax free income. I can buy almost $10K in principal amount per year now with the annual interest paid on the current positions.
The municipal bonds that I am buying are far more difficult to sell than the corporate bonds. I would call the Tennessee tax free bonds that I have bought illiquid. I am not saying that they are impossible to sell.
The most likely course of action will be that all of them will be held to maturity. Due to the absence of an active market, I am not devoting any cash to their purchase that may be needed prior to their respective maturities. The first batch matures in 2026-2029.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Novartis AG ADR (NVS)
ReplyDelete$80.97 +$ 2.25 +2.89%
Last Updated: Jul 18, 2018 at 10:36 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nvs
NVS reported earnings earlier today:
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/07/18/1538689/0/en/Novartis-delivers-solid-growth-in-second-quarter-and-continues-transformation-to-a-focused-medicines-company.html
I own somewhere near 150 shares with the position held in two accounts. The larger of the two positions, 108+ shares, is in my Vanguard taxable account and is up about $700. I have been discussing the purchase of small lots in my Fidelity account, where I am now up to 44+ shares, and those discussions can be reviewed by clicking the NVS symbol in the long "label" list to the right hand side.
Hope Bancorp also reported this morning. Investors are somewhat disappointed but I view the report as okay and about what I expected.
https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/hope-bancorp-reports-2018-second-quarter-financial-results-20180717-01126
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/hope
Just another day of sector rotation. Consumer staples were stronger than the S & P 500 yesterday and gave back those gains today.
ReplyDeleteFidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF
$31.80 -0.22 -0.69%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fsta
Bank stocks were generally strong again after flatlining yesterday:
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
$62.29 +$0.70 +1.14%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
The S & P 500 rose .22%
The ten year treasury yield increased by about .01% which I would call more of the same torpor.
Bond like sectors acted like there was something negative may happen in bond land, even though the day to day, week-to-week movement would put the most excitable trader into a deep slumber :
Vanguard Real Estate ETF
$80.92 -$0.36 -0.44%
Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF
$52.18 -$0.27 -0.51%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/xlu
The energy sector managed to come back from the red to close near unchanged for the day after crude oil recovered in price.
Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF
$21.01 +$0.025 +0.12%
DAY RANGE 20.68 - 21.04
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/feny
The recovery in crude oil's price started around 10:30 A.M. E.S.T.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic
The industrial sector was a bright spot:
Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI)
$74.55 +$0.81 +1.10%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/xli
This sector has been in an uptrend this month.
IBM reported better than expected earnings and is up in after hours trading.
AFTER HOURS Last Updated: Jul 18, 2018 at 4:34 p.m. EDT
$146.45 +$1.93 +1.34%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ibm
I am up to 7 shares in my small ball "buying program", somewhat of a joke here at HQ's trading desk. I would not call that a position.
NVS ended up +$2.26 based on today's favorable response to its earnings report.
HOPE, which reported earlier today, finished down $.59 or 3.37%. The bank missed the consensus estimate by 1 cent and a brokerage company, Wedbush, reduced its price target by $1 to $18.
I do not own the DJIA component American Express which is down over 3% in after hours:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-express-shares-dive-after-company-misses-on-revenue-2018-07-18
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/axp
A number of BDCs have been moving up in price as of late. The ones worthy of the most contempt are not participating much.
ReplyDeleteMy approach to this niche sector is to be pleased with any capital appreciation given the dividend yield. The goal is simply to harvest a total return greater than the dividend yield and to be more than satisfied when and if that goal comes to fruition.
I would attribute the generally positive trend to a favorable economic climate and a steady rise in the Libor rate. Most BDCs loan most of their money at a spread over the 3 month Libor rate which has been rising steadily.
Some of the small ones that I currently own:
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG):
$13.33 +$0.44 +3.41%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tpvg
Stellus Capital Investment Corp. (SCM)
$13.53 +0.28 +2.11%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/scm
THL Credit Inc.
$8.29 +0.04 +0.48%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tcrd
PennantPark Investment Corp. (PNNT)
$7.40 +$0.22 +3.06%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pnnt
My positions in the BDC sector includes several other names and the combined total dollar exposure, including BDCL, is immaterial to me.
My largest position is the riskiest which is the ETN BDCL, one of the 2x leveraged products that most individual investors may need to just say no to.
Sponsor's Page:
http://etracs.ubs.com/product/detail/index/ussymbol/BDCL
I am near break-even after averaging down several times. I am in the hole after adjusting for taxes. My last two buys, neither of which was discussed, were 10 shares bought at $14.14 (4/5/18) and at $15.25 (4/15/18) using commission free trades at Schwab.
2xLeveraged Long E-TRACS Linked to Wells Fargo Business Development Co. Index ETN
$15.94 +$ 0.63 +4.11%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bdcl
The yield is close to 15% according to Marketwatch at today's closing price. The last quarterly dividend was at $.591 and went ex dividend on 7/13/18. I have managed to clip some profits on the shares over the years, but that has been extremely difficult to do during a bear trend for this sector that started in late 2013 with a 2 or 3 month rally in the 2016 first quarter that started to fade in April 2016. A rally in the sector started again around 3/1/18 but has been subdued with several of the most hated BDCs failing to contribute much, if anything, to the rally.
One of the larger percentage gainers since 3/1/18 is Main Street which is internally managed, going from $35.41 to $39.69 today.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/main
Unilever PLC (UL)
ReplyDelete$56.07 +$1.26 (+2.30%)
As of 9:58AM EDT.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UL?p=UL
I have traded both UN and UL while keeping a UL position acquired on 3/23/2009 at $18.
Unilever reported earlier today:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/19/reuters-america-update-3-unilever-forecasts-improved-sales-as-it-reforms-structure.html
BB&T Corp. $50.35 -$2.63 -4.96%
ReplyDeleteLast Updated: Jul 19, 2018 at 11:53 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bbt
I recently eliminated my position, but was curious why the Stock Jocks were reacting so negatively to the 2nd quarter earnings report released earlier today.
Non-GAAP E.P.S. was reported at $1.01 which met the consensus estimate. Revenues were reported at $2.88B compared to $2.86B a year ago and below the consensus estimate of $2.92B. That may have something to do with the decline.
There was a slight decline in non-performing loans to .38% from .43%, but that kind of number is about as good as it is going to get. The next major move for banks will be increases in NPLs, NPAs and charge-offs. The question is only when, not if.
My guess is that investors are gradually starting to wonder when NIM will start to expand. NIM was reported at 3.45% compared to 3.44% in the 2018 first quarter and 3.47% in the 2017 second quarter:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bbt-reports-record-quarterly-earnings-of-0-99-per-diluted-share-up-0-22--or-28-6-percent-compared-to-second-quarter-2017--300683315.html
I will not be publishing a Portfolio Management post tomorrow. The next post will be my now regular Sunday post.
ReplyDeleteMy only comment about portfolio management is that I have become dissatisfied with short term CD rates which have been coming down.
The internal gyrations of the market are not sending a clear signal. Yesterday, the consumer stable, REITs and utility sectors were down. Today, as the S & P 500 declined by .4%, those sectors managed gains today.
Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA)
$31.82 +0.0171 +0.05%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fsta/holdings
PG, the largest components in that sector ETF with an 11+% weighting, traded ex dividend today.
Fidelity MSCI Real Estate Index ETF
$24.64 +$0.2668 + 1.09%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/frel
Fidelity MSCI Utilities Index ETF
$34.75 +0.34 +0.99%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/futy
Bank ETFs declined today but were up yesterday. .
At least all of that internal gyration made some sense with intermediate interest rates ticking down some.
U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
2.837% -0.035%
Last Updated: Jul 19, 2018 at 4:19 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx
I have mixed feeling about the ten year trending down since hitting 3.11% in May. On the one hand, the value of my vintage bonds have quit going down in price and have started to increase in value. On the other, I am finding more bonds unattractive for current purchases. The decline in yields also makes it more difficult to achieve my 4% yield on a total portfolio basis.
One sector that is in a clear downtrend is the precious metals. A long term secular bear market in PMs started in 2011 and shows no signs of becoming a long term secular bull market. The last bull market started around 2002 and ended in 2011. There will be rallies in long term bear markets but they are temporary and will be snuffed out.
I have a published a new post.
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/07/observations-and-sample-of-recent_22.html