Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: CFG, FHN, PEO, PG, VRP

Economy: 

ADP Private payrolls gain 227K in Oct, vs 189K estimate; Private payrolls rise in October; wages surge in third quarter | Reuters 

U.S. adds 250,000 jobs in October, wages rise at fastest pace in more than nine years - MarketWatch 

The Bond Ghouls did not find comfort in that report. The ten year treasury yield closed last Friday at 3.22%, up 8 basis points from Thursday: 

The previous high this year was at 3.23%  

Closing Prices Last Friday: 

SHY $82.88 -$0.10 -0.12%: iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
IEF $99.97 -$0.56 -0.56%: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
TLT $112.00 -$1.41 -1.24%: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
ZROZ $100.48 -$1.80 -1.76%: PIMCO 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury ETF (the longest duration in this bunch)

Employment Situation Summary ("In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents to $27.30. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 83 cents, or 3.1 percent.") The U-16 number declined to 7.4% from 7.5% in September. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

Trump complaints or no, Fed December interest-rate hike looks like ‘done deal’ after strong jobs report - MarketWatch

U.S. imports hit all-time high, trade deficit with China sets new record despite tariffs - MarketWatch

US trade deficit rises more than expected (up 10% YTD)

ISM manufacturing index falls to six-month low in October as price rises, shortages weigh - MarketWatch I have been anticipating some weakness in this index due in significant part to the ongoing tariff wars. The October number was still strong at 57.7. The new orders component fell 4.4 points to 57.4. The employment component declined 2 points to 46.8. New export orders declined by 3.8 points to 52.2. I am expecting the export number to fall within contraction territory within the next three months. The main variable is whether there will be a resolution of the China trade war. ISM October 2018 Manufacturing 

Trump represented that the trade negotiations with China's President were "moving along nicely".  

11/1/18

Trump says he and China's Xi Jinping talked about trade amid tariffs

Video Interview: Kudlow: There's no massive movement to deal with China trade("response to our asks have been unacceptable", "have not seen anything from the Chinese yet, nothing"); Kudlow says the Cabinet was not asked to draw up trade plan for China

Shortly after Kudlow threw cold water on a trade deal, the Duck told reporters that the two countries are much closer to striking a deal; and he represented that China and the U.S. will have a good deal in place. Dow pares sharp losses after Trump says trade deal with China is closer Trump's representations reversed a slide in the stock market mid-day last Friday. 

White House officials push back on the idea that trade deal with China is imminent While I certainly hope this problem is resolved soon, I suspect the recent happy talk from Trump, even after his economic advisor said China was not even responding , was intended to break the stock market's declines last month and last Friday and to generate a rally into the mid-term elections.  

If Donald is lying in order to improve republican chances next Tuesday, and you bought stocks in reliance on Donald's representations and later paid the piper, then perhaps you need to take the Duck off your Christmas card list. 

I assign negative credibility to Donald, which means that I assume he is lying until proven otherwise. 

+++++++

Markets and Market Commentary: 

The Nasdaq Composite declined 9.2% last month. SPX was down 6.9% with the DJIA at a -5.1%. 

While there were 4 days where the VIX climbed over 26, all of those prints were intra-day and there was not a single close above 26. Consequently, my day count for a Trigger Event is still at zero.   

Cramer: Tariffs, interest rates are setting stocks up for a rough 2019

U.S. productivity pops 2.2% in third quarter, caps best back-to-back gain in four years - MarketWatch; BLS: Productivity and Costs, Third Quarter 2018, Preliminary

Kudlow calls federal minimum wage 'a terrible idea'

Why falling stock prices could lead to a long, deep recession - MarketWatch (opinion column written by economist Martin Feldstein)

Mondelez plans price rises to cope with rising freight costs | Reuters

Big biotech companies have flushed $100 billion in stock buybacks down the toilet - MarketWatch

General Motors earnings Q3 2018; GM Reports Income of $2.4 Billion and EBIT-adjusted of $3.2 Billion

Why one Wall Street analyst finds this stock-market rally ‘uninspiring’ - MarketWatch

The housing market’s slowdown is going to kill the home renovation boom too - MarketWatch I doubt that. People are staying longer in their current homes and many would prefer remodeling IMO over moving, particularly when their long term mortgage loan has an interest rate below what is available now. As the housing market stagnates, American homeowners are staying put I am the exception to that general tendency in that I have stayed put since I built my home in 1982 and my desire to remodel is near zero and has been that way for my entire life. 

A good faith argument can be made, citing numerous events spanning decades, that large financial institutions are infused with people who are criminals or make Trump look like a model for probity and honest dealings. Goldman Stung by 1MDB Corruption Scheme That's Rocked Malaysia - Bloomberg   

+++++

Trump: 

Michael Cohen Says Trump Repeatedly Used Racist Language Before His Presidency | Vanity Fair According to Teflon Don's former fixer and attack dog, Trump claimed that African Americans were too stupid to vote for him. 

The Washington Post has now identified 6,420 false and misleading claims since his inauguration. He is averaging over 30 false claims per day in the past seven weeks. Tracking all of President Trump’s false or misleading claims - Washington Post

Analysis: President Trump has made 6,420 false or misleading claims over 649 days

Trump I will always tell you the Truth - YouTube

Telling the truth is not a conservative value if the GOP is a conservative party.   

Rest assured that Donald will tell the truth "when he can" which means almost never. Trump: "When I Can, I Tell The Truth" | Video | RealClearPolitics

Midterm elections 2018: Trump sparks outrage with divisive campaign ad: USA Today; Trump shocks with racist new ad days before midterms The guy featured in that Trump video was released from jail by the republican sheriff Joe Arpaio. Cop killer in Trump video was released by Republican Sheriff Joe Arpaio-MarketWatch He was deported during the Clinton Administration. And, he then returned to the U.S. illegally during the Bush Administration. He thereafter secured a marriage license in 2002 during the Bush Administration. The Sacramento Bee  

Trump Demagoguery About the Caravan "Invasion": 

This map shows how far the migrant caravan is from the U.S. border - MarketWatch (My estimate is that about 1,000 to 1,500 migrants in the current caravan will eventually make it to the U.S. border. Donald will be sending another 10,000 to 15,000 regular troops to meet them. Unicef estimates that there are 2,300 children in this caravan, Trump says migrant caravan can be called an invasion-and is bigger than we’re being told - MarketWatch)

Trump’s border deployments could cost $200 million by year-end - The Washington Post

Trump wants more troops at border to deal with migrant caravan. Political stunt or national emergency? USA Today;

Army assessment of migrant caravans undermines Trump’s rhetoric

The Pentagon estimates that about 20% of the 7000 migrants will actually even make it to the border. Army assessment of migrant caravans undermines Trump’s rhetoric - The Washington Post A major threat from the Pentagon's viewpoint comes from armed and unregulated U.S. militias, some of whom have stolen national guard equipment in the past. Migrant Caravan: Border Troops Preparing for Threat of Armed, Unregulated Militias, Leaked Documents Show  

Kindness of strangers: A day in the life of the migrant caravan in Mexico | Reuters; 

Fact vs. Fiction: What you need to know about the caravan passing through Mexico on its way to the USA | Amnesty International

Trump to Caravan: Rocks Will Be Considered A Firearm 

++

Ryan Zinke:  

Sources: Justice Department investigating Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke - CNN; White House concerned Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke violated federal rules - The Washington Post The Trump Administration will go down as the most corrupt in U.S. history. It is just a question of whether all of the rocks will be turned over to expose the slime to daylight.   

++

King Donald and the Constitution:

King Donald wants to repeal section 1 of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution by an Executive Order. Trump eyeing executive order to end birthright citizenship, a move most legal experts say runs afoul of the Constitution 

The issue here is not whether birthright citizenship is a good or bad policy. The issue is whether the President has the power to change the clear wording of the U.S. Constitution and abolish a law passed by Congress by Executive Order.  

The 14th Amendment was passed in response to the Supreme Court's infamous decision in Dred Scott v. Sandford, 60 U.S. 393 (1856) that denied citizenship to former slaves and their descendants. 

The 14th Amendment reads in pertinent part as follows: 

"All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside. No state shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any state deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws." (emphasis added)

14th Amendment Constitution 

So, as I understand the argument, a baby may not really be a person but a corporation is most definitely one. 

While the Supreme Court considers a corporation to be a person within the meaning of the 14th Amendment, I would not be surprised now to read a 5-4 decision that a baby is not a person but a corporation is one. The reactionaries have won. 

The History of Corporate Personhood | Brennan Center for Justice
  
Donald: “We’re the only country in the world where a person comes in and has a baby, and the baby is essentially a citizen of the United States for 85 years, with all of those benefits It’s ridiculous. It’s ridiculous. And it has to end.” Exclusive: Trump targeting birthright citizenship with executive order - Axios 

Donald is lying as usual when he claims that the U.S. is the only country that grants birthright citizenship. 

30 countries in the Western Hemisphere grant birthright citizenship. Birthright Citizenship in the United States | Center for Immigration Studies; Pages 135-136 Harvard Human Rights Journal.pdf Only 5 countries in the Western Hemisphere do not provide automatic citizenship to babies born within their respective territories.  

Demagogue Don's executive order would also repeal an Act of Congress:

8 U.S. Code § 1401 (a) 

Donald does not have a clue about what "subject to the jurisdiction" of the U.S. means: 

Any person in the U.S. other than an accredited diplomat is subject to U.S. jurisdiction. That would include illegal immigrants. If a diplomat residing in the U.S. has a child, that child does not become a citizen.  

In Donald's view, an illegal immigrant who commits a murder in the U.S. is not subject to the jurisdiction of the United States and consequently can not be arrested or charged for committing that crime against a U.S. citizen. To arrive at that conclusion, Donald would have to think about his contention before speaking, mind before mouth so to speak, which is of course impossible for him.  

Donald appears to be advancing a wingnut theory advanced by Michael Anton, who is a Trumpster with no law degree, that a child born in the U.S. to illegal immigrants is not subject to U.S. jurisdiction since the parents owe their allegiance to a foreign power. That interpretation makes no sense whatsoever and would create the problem of subjecting illegal immigrants to all of the civil and criminal laws of the U.S.  

Under Anton's asinine interpretation of "subject to the jurisdiction", I would just note that a large number of slaves would never have been citizens after the passage of the 14th Amendment since they were brought illegally to the U.S. after Congress outlawed the importation of slaves from Africa in 1807. Act Prohibiting Importation of Slaves, Copy.pdf The framers of the 14th Amendment clearly wanted to provide those slaves and their descendants citizenship irrespective of whether they were lawfully present in the U.S. 

Trump attacks Paul Ryan, says he 'knows nothing' about birthright citizenship-CNN It is Donald who knows nothing. His ignorance knows no boundaries. What is more disturbing is that the Duck could care less about facts, laws,  and U.S. constitutional history. 

Only an authoritarian would even contemplate issuing an Executive Order eliminating a constitutional provision and an Act of Congress by executive fiat.  

While many democracies are moving swiftly toward authoritarism and/or political control through demagoguery and false narratives, the U.S. is much further along in that process than most others including Poland, Hungary and Brazil. The trend toward authoritarianism and rule by demagoguery is without question growing in democracies. Far-right lawmaker Jair Bolsonaro wins Brazil's presidency, worrying rights groups - CBS News 

Donald continued to attack the free press as the enemy of the people:

Donald is without question a demagogue with exceedingly strong authoritarian tendencies. 

Perhaps he will consider repealing Article III of the Constitution, just get rid of all of those so-called judges, and appoint Judge Jeanine Pirro to hear all future permitted cases which will henceforth be limited to lawsuits filed by Donald Trump and his direct lineal descendants. That would require an Executive Order repealing part of the First Amendment as well. Might as well repeal the entire First Amendment since that Liptard provision protects the Fake News media.  

++++

Bill Kristol is another conservative who does not hold the Duck in high regard. Bill Kristol: Tucker Carlson and Fox News Have Become "Ethno-Nationalist"-RealClearPolitics; Bill Kristol Wanders the Wilderness of Trump World-The New Yorker Among True Conservatives, the conservative intellectuals have probably had the hardest time accepting Donald as the GOP standard bearer. Many have left the party. 

Indicted Rep. Duncan Hunter maintains lead over Democratic opponent Ammar Campa-Najjar - CBS News The republicans are running an ad claiming that the Democrat is a secret Jihadist because his grandfather, who died 16 years before he was born, was involved in the Munich terrorist attack in 1972. The Democrat was born in San Diego and is a Christian. He also passed a FBI security check.  Duncan D. Hunter's Shocking, Disturbing Campaign Attack Ad | MTP Daily | MSNBC - YouTube; 10News fact-checks Duncan Hunter &amp-YouTube

I anticipate that the two GOP congressman who have been charged with crimes will be returned to Washington by republicans in their districts. 

Exclusive: Trump blamed ex-counsel McGahn for Mueller investigation - CNN

Rising national debt to affect voter midterm election decisions, poll says; Yellen says rising US deficit unsustainable: 'If I had a magic wand, I would raise taxes' I view both political tribes as fiscally irresponsible, though I now view the current GOP as being more reckless than the Democrats. But it is a question of who I give a "C" and who receives an "D" on the fiscal responsibility grading scale.  

The IRAQ war for example was a war of choice initiated based on false information that will cost well over $2 trillion which was borrowed and will have to be refinanced over and over for as long as the U.S. remains a viable debtor. 

++

Agriculture Sec. Sonny Perdue: Florida governor's race 'so cotton-pickin' important' - CNNPolitics The Democrat is an African American. The republican candidate asked voters not to "monkey this up" by voting for an African American. 

++++++

1. Small Ball-Energy Stocks: 

A. Bought 10 PEO at $17.58-Used Schwab Commission Free Trade: 

Quote: Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc. Stock Quote

Closing Price Last Friday: PEO $17.66 -$0.06 -0.34%

PEO is a CEF that owns natural resource stocks. It come into existence shortly before the 1929 stock market crash.

Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report: Period Ending 6/30/18 (unrealized net gain at $198.31+M)

Top 10 Holdings as of 6/30/18:

Both Exxon and Chevron reported third quarter earnings last Friday: 

CVX $114.73 +$3.56 +3.20%-Chevron Reports Third Quarter Net Income of $4.0 Billion 


XOM $81.95 +$1.28 +1.59%-ExxonMobil Earnings Increase 57 Percent to $6.2 Billion in Third Quarter of 2018 

Oil prices started to tank after 9/30/18. Crude Oil

I will periodically trade Exxon and Chevron but do not currently have a position in any of the stocks listed above. 

Data Date of Trade (10/25/18)
Closing NAV Per Share = $ 20.94
Closing Market Price = $ 17.59
Discount: - 16%
Average Discount 1 Year = -15.48 %

CEF Connect Page for PEO

Current Position: 224+ shares

Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 4.B. Added 15 PEO at $18.71 (12/14/17 Post)(purchase made after a $.88 per share 4th quarter dividend) 

PEO_Principal_Portfolio Changes_for the Q/E 6/30/2018.pdf

Historical Distributions: The major paid of the dividend is paid at year-end and is sourced from long term capital gains. 

Adams Natural Resources Fund Declares Year-End Distribution; Exceeds Its Annual 6% Minimum Distribution Rate Commitment (11/9/17)

Adams Natural Resources Fund Declares Year-End Distribution; Exceeds Its Annual 6% Minimum Distribution Rate Commitment (11/10/16)

Adams Natural Resources Fund Declares Year-End Distribution; Exceeds Its Annual 6% Minimum Distribution Rate Commitment (11/12/15)

Reinvestment: Yes

Last Eliminated: Item # 1 Sold 104+ PEO at $27.06 (8/10/13 Post)

Natural resource stocks have been in a bear market since the summer of 2014, as shown by the following five year ETF chart: iShares North American Natural Resources ETF (IGR) 

B.  Added 10 VRP at $24.35 (Commission Free for Vanguard Brokerage Customers): 

Quote: Invesco Variable Rate Preferred ETF Overview 

Sponsor's Website: Invesco - Product Detail

Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Bought 50 VRP at $24.53 (10/24/18 Post) 

Current Position: 60+ Shares

Maximum Position: 150 Shares 

Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (changed from 20 share lots to 10)

Dividend Reinvestment: I decided to reinvest the dividends. 

Dividend: Monthly at a Variable Rate

Last Ex Dividend: 10/22/18 (after 50 share purchase and before this last purchase)

I decided to drop my additional share purchases to 10 shares since the securities owned by this fund will be adversely impacted by rising rates. 

Why would that be the case since this is purportedly a "variable rate" ETF?

As I have stated earlier, most of the securities owned by this fund are not paying now a rate that floats over a short term rate but a fixed rate. The fund's fact sheet claims that only 19% were paying a variable rate as of 6/30/18:  Page 4 Floating rate securities overview (PDF)

That is the case for most fixed-to-floating rate securities that will transition in the future from a fixed rate to a spread over a short term rate provided the issuer does not call when that transition occurs or at anytime thereafter.  

A pure floating rate security would also exclude those issues which pay the greater of a fixed coupon or a float over a short term rate, when the fixed coupon rate is still higher than the floating rate. 

There are some securities that are pure variable instruments. Most of those are in $1K par values and traded in the bond market. There are a few synthetic floaters, which I have discussed many times in this blog , that pay a float over a short term rate and nothing but that float.  

2. Short Term Bond/CD Basket Strategy: 

I am slowing down purchases some and allowing redemption proceeds to accumulate. With further declines in the stock market, I may choose to redeploy more of the proceeds into dividend paying common stocks. 

A. Bought 1 Wells Fargo 3.05% CD (monthly interest payments) Maturing on 11/20/20 (2 year CD):

B. Bought 2 Treasury 55 Day Bills at Auction: 
IR =2.243% 

Auction Results: 

C. Bought 1 Treasury .875% Coupon Maturing on 6/15/19: 
YTM = 2.51%

IMO, the coupon is irrelevant when buying a bond with no more than 1 semi-annual payment remaining. This bond will make its last semi-annual payment on 6/15/19 when it matures. At that time, I will capture most of my return representing the difference between my total cost and the $1K par value. That amount will be precisely $10.04. 

The next to last semi-annual payment will be made on 12/15/18 when I will recapture the $3.32 in accrued interest paid to the seller plus about 45 days in additional interest.  

When buying a bond, I know precisely my total return to the penny which can change when and if the issuer exercises an optional redemption right. The only assumption is that the issuer survives to make the interest payments and to pay the principal amount at maturity.  

The promise to pay a sum certain on a date certain is what appeals to me now.  

3. REGIONAL BANK BASKET STRATEGY:

A. Bought 25 CFG at $35.61-Used Commission Free Trade:

Quote: Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG)

Closing Price Last Friday:  CFG $37.52 +$0.11 +0.29% 

CFG was spun out of the Royal Bank of Scotland in 2014. 

CFG Analyst Consensus E.P.S. Estimates as of Date of Purchase (10/16)
2018: $3.47
2019: $3.82
P/E at TC of $35.61 and $3.82 Estimated 2019 E.P.S. = 9.32
Projected E.P.S. Growth Rate Y-O-Y 10.09%
Projected P.E.G at 1 PEG & ROI Calculator

Maximum Position: 100 Shares

Current Position: 25 Shares

Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule

Recent Dividend History: Quarterly at $.27 per share ($1.08 annually)

Rising at a brisk pace

Dividend History – Citizens Bank

Dividend yield at a $35.61 TC per share = 3.03%

Last Ex Dividend Date: 10/30/18 (shortly after purchase)

Last Earnings Report:

Citizens Financial Group, Inc. Reports Third Quarter Net Income of $443 Million with Diluted EPS of $0.91 up 34% Year over Year; Underlying Net Income of $450 million and EPS of $0.93, up 37% Year over Year

The bank beat the consensus estimate by 4 cents per share.

GAAP Numbers
NIM                  3.19% (okay, and up from 3.09% in the 2017 4th quarter)
ROA                 1.13% (below average)
Return on Average Assets for all U.S. Banks-St. Louis Fed
ROE                  8.82% (below average)
Return on Average Equity for all U.S. Banks-St. Louis Fed
ROTE              13.29% (okay)
Efficiency         58.2%  (acceptable, prefer closer to 50%)

The effective income tax rate was at 23.16% down from 32.18% in the 2017 third quarter. 

Capital Ratios: Okay

The market responded favorably to this report: CFG $36.37 +$1.45 +4.15% (closing price 10/19/18)

Citizens Financial Group CEO: Higher interest rates are a benefit

Barron's published on 10/19 a favorable article: You Probably Bought Your iPhone With This Bank’s Help. Its Stock Is Worth Buying, Too - Barron's CFG provides unsecured financing for IPhone purchases made directly from Apple. 

Barron's did a follow up on 10/22, noting that two brokerages upgraded CFG with Bank of America/Merrill Lynch going to buy from underperform, and the stock fell in response that day. Citizens Bank Stock Gets Two Upgrades, but Still Doesn’t Rally - Barron's CFG declined 1.65% on Monday 10/22, but the regional bank ETF KRE was down 3.13% that day, close to a 20% decline from its June 2018 intra-day high. 

CFG recently sold $300M of a 6.375% fixed-to-floating rate equity preferred stock. Citizens Financial Group Announces Pricing of $300 Million Preferred Stock Offering; Free Writing Prospectus Dated October 22, 2018 This one will not be traded on a stock exchange. Par value is $1,000 per share.  

B. Bought 25 FHN at $15.56-Used Commission Free Trade:

Quote: First Horizon National Corp. (FHN)

Closing Price Last Friday: FHN $16.46 +$0.06 +0.37% 

First Horizon is a Tennessee based holding company whose operating banking subsidiary is First Tennessee. FHN through its operating banks is ranked #1 in Tennessee for deposits and is the 4th largest bank operating in the southeast. Through a recent acquisition, FHN expanded its operation in other southeastern states. First Horizon National Corp. Completes Acquisition of Capital Bank Financial Corp.; First Horizon and Capital Bank merger to create fourth largest regional bank in Southeast  

FHN Consensus Analyst E.P.S. Estimates  

1 Year Chart: Bear Trend, currently trading below 50 and 200 day SMA lines.  

FHN crashed and burned during the Near Depression. The stock price topped out near $43 in February 2007. By July 2008, the stock was trading below $7. 

Maximum Position: 100 Shares

Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule

Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share

First Horizon declares quarterly dividends 

Dividend Yield at a TC of $15.56 =  3.08%

Last Ex Dividend Date: 9/8/18

Last Earnings Report: Q/E 9/30/18

First Horizon Reports Third Quarter 2018 Results 

First Horizon National Corporation (FHN) CEO Bryan Jordan on Q3 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

The GAAP earnings number was much higher than the non-GAAP operating number due to a $219M pre-tax gain on FHN's Visa shares. 

Repurchased during the quarter  1.1 million shares for $19.0 million with a volume weighted average price of $17.84. 

Efficiency Ratio: 66.55% (too high)

Charge Off Ratio: .02% (excellent) 

NPA Ratio: .63% (okay at this late stage in the credit cycle)

Net Interest Margin: 3.44%

Loans outstanding fell to $27.35+B from $27.701B. 

At the time of purchase, the S & P analyst rated FHN five stars with a 12 month target price of $23. The buy rating was maintained after the earnings report but the price target was reduced to $21. S & P lowered its 2009 E.P.S. estimate to $1.74 from $1.91 based on tempered expectations for loan growth and NIM expansion. 

RBC reiterated its market perform rating and lowered its price target to $17 from $19. 

4. Small Ball Trading-Pared PG: 

In this risk management technique, there will generally be a large number of small purchases which each purchase at the lowest price in the chain. 

When and if the shares pop, enabling me to sell my highest cost lot or lots profitably, I may exercise that option to reduce my average cost per share, minimize taxes, and increase the dividend yield. 

Additional shares can only be bought at the lowest price in the chain which is currently $70.89 for PG: Item # 1.C. (5/7/18 Post)

A. Sold Highest Cost PG Lots: 20 at $89.05 and 4 at $90.44-Used Commission Free Trades: 

20 Shares

4 Shares

Quote: Procter & Gamble Co.  

Before Pares: Average Cost Per Share = $81.23

After Pare: Average Cost Per Share = $75.13

I am done paring.  

Profit Snapshot: +$80.11 

24 Shares Sold on 10/24/18 +$80.11

Dividend: Quarterly at $.7172 per share 

Splits & Dividend History | P&G

Dividend Yield at $75.13 Average Cost = 3.82%

Last Ex Dividend Date:  10/18/18  (shortly before pare) 

Dividend Reinvestment: Yes


Last Earnings Report: Q/E 9/30/18

P&G Announces Fiscal Year 2019 First Quarter Results 

Discussed at Procter & Gamble shares jump on biggest sales gain in 5 years.

The stock popped in response to this earnings report. The most favorable aspect IMO was the +4% organic sales gain. (see my previous comment) The consensus forecast was for 1.4%. 

I have periodically bought and sold PG. I bought PG at $47.59 in March 2009 and then sold that lot at $56.49 about 4 months later. I then bought 100 PG shares at $52.85 in September 2009 and then sold that lot at $59.45 in November 2009 and so on.  

Since 3/3/2009, PG has substantially underperformed the S & P 500 ETF SPY: 

Through 10/30/2018
PG Total Return 175.87%
SPY Total Return 377.48%

DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.