Sunday, November 11, 2018

Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: GDO, HBAN, HTPRD, OFS, VLY

Economy


Mortgage rates surge to a near 8-year high as house-hunters race the clock - MarketWatch As previously discussed, I am anticipating a slowdown in new home sales due to the Triple Whammy: (1) higher mortgage rates; (2) the rise in home prices; and (3) limits on the deductibility of state income and property taxes. The end result is declining affordability.  

Trade war: China's exports are still soaring despite US tariffs

Navarro says ‘globalist billionaires’ are pressing White House to cut a deal with China - MarketWatch Peter Navarro is Trump's trade advisor. Apparently he is referring to the global Jewish cabal headed up by George Soros and Michael Bloomberg who, according to the republicans, tried to steal the mid-term election from the hard working WASPs in God's country.


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Election:


In Kansas, a four term Republican congressman Kevin Yoder was defeated by a gay Native American woman.


Gun control advocate Lucy McBath wins Georgia House race; Lucy McBath Wins Georgia's Sixth Congressional District (formerly held by republicans Newt Gingrich and the disgraced former Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price)


Democrat Kendra Horn wins Oklahoma seat in major upset | TheHill



In the Texas 7th congressional district, the nine term republican incumbent and republican committee chairman John Culbertson lost a seat held by republicans for decades and transitioned to the republicans when George H.W. Bush won there. 

The republicans experienced their worst drubbing in House races since 1974, the year when Nixon resigned in disgrace, when they lost 48 seats.


The republicans lost 323 seats in state legislatures and seven governorships. The most notable loser among GOP incumbent governors was Scott Walker (WIS).  


Where Democrats have won back control of state legislatures - Axios


The republicans beat three incumbent Democrat senators in deep red states. Senators McCaskill (D-MO), Heitkamp and Donnelley (R-IN) were going to lose no matter what Trump did on behalf of their republican challengers. 


The Democrats had to defend 10 Senate seats in states carried by Trump in 2016. They lost in Indiana, Missouri and South Dakota and possibly in Florida which will undergo a recount. 


The votes are still being counted in the Arizona senate race to replace the retiring republican Jeff Flake. If Sinema wins, and she is pulling ahead, the Democrats will have flipped two senate seats formerly held by republicans. Senator's McCain's seat will have to be defended by the republicans in 2020.  


Arizona Senate: Democrat Kyrsten Sinema Widens Lead | Phoenix New Times

The Republicans had to defend 1 senate seat in a state carried by Hillary-Nevada- and they failed to hold. Jacky Rosen unseats Dean Heller in Nevada Senate race - POLITICO


Trump 2016 Margins Of Victory: 


Indiana  =           18.9% 

Missouri =          18.63%
South Dakota=  29.8%  

The republican challengers in those states won in 2018 by significantly thinner margins.   


The main reason McCaskill survived in 2012 was that the republican candidate was a gift, the nitwit Todd Aiken who claimed that women could be raped and avoid pregnancy by controlling their bodies, a feat previously unknown to medical science. 


2018 election results: Republican Josh Hawley wins Missouri Senate race, defeating Claire McCaskill - Vox Maybe the Democrats should not give up on Missouri but their money could be better utilized for the foreseeable future elsewhere. Despite Claire McCaskill’s Loss, Democrats Shouldn’t Give Up in Missouri | The New Yorker This time the republicans fielded a legitimate, young and photogenic candidate (Josh Hawley) to run against McCaskill.  


Senators Tester and Manchin survived in states that Trump carried by 20.5 and 42.7 respectively, and the incumbent republicans lost in Nevada which has now become a blue state along with New Mexico.  


The Florida senate race is headed for a recount. 

Donald viewed the election results as a "tremendous" victory due to his tireless campaign efforts: 




In his press conference last Wednesday, the Duck declared that it was "very close to complete victory.” Trump prefaced that remark by saying that he was going to be "very honest". When Donald prefaces a remark with "I am going to be honest with you", or words to that effect, what comes out of is mouth almost invariably is a lie and a frequently absurd one as well.     


The GOP can not do anything more with a slightly larger Senate majority than prior to the election.


And with the Democrats in control of the House, nothing controversial is going to get passed into law unless the Democrats want it. I doubt that we will see much straying from the party line on the divisive issues. 


While the mainstream press gave the republicans their due for increasing their senate majority, recounting facts for Donald was not enough. Failure to slovenly praise the Duck is now Fake News:



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Trump

Recess Appointment of Matthew Whitaker as Acting Attorney General

Sessions was obviously going to be fired after the election. Trump made it official one day after the election. Jeff Sessions Is Forced Out as Attorney General as Trump Installs Loyalist


Trump replaced Sessions with the Trump sycophant and loyalist Matthew Whitaker who was Session's Chief of Staff and a football jock in college.


Donald Trump: 'I don't know Matt Whitaker' 


About one month ago, Trump told Fox in a taped interview the exact opposite: "I can tell you Matt Whitaker's a great guy..I mean, I know Matt Whitaker." (emphasis added) 


Whitaker reportedly visited the oval office several times. Trump on Friday: ‘I Don’t Know Matt Whitaker.’ Trump Last Month: ‘I Know Matt Whitaker.’ - The New York Times 


Trump Denies Knowing Whitaker, Who He Met a Dozen Times


Exclusive: Matthew Whitaker advised Donald Trump on investigating Hillary Clinton - Vox


Whitaker will take over the Mueller investigation.


Last year, Whitaker wrote an opinion that Mueller's investigation of Trump had gone too far. 


Mathew Whitaker mused about attorney general defunding Mueller-The Washington Post


Trump's Acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker, who has criticized the Mueller probe, will now oversee it


Whitaker thought it was advisable for Don Jr. to meet with the Russians to secure dirt on Hillary. "Anybody would have taken that meeting," Whitaker told CNN in a July 2017 interview. What we know about Matthew Whitaker, the man now in charge of the Mueller probe after Jeff Sessions' ouster - ABC News


After being defeated in a bid to become a senator, coming in fourth among republican contenders, Whitaker joined the advisory board of an invention-promotion company, a common scam that has been around for decades.  "The company was shut down earlier this year amid an FTC probe that accused it of being a sham group that cheated inventors by falsely promising them help with marketing their ideas in exchange for exorbitant fees." Matthew Whitaker: Acting Attorney General and Special Counsel probe critic - The Washington Post


Trump's acting attorney general involved in firm that scammed veterans out of life savings | US news | The Guardian Huckster Don can relate: Trump University: It’s Worse Than You Think | The New Yorker


Acting attorney general was board member of company accused of scam - MarketWatch


Whitaker's link to a 'scam' company that was shut down by the government;


FBI is investigating Florida company linked to acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker - MarketWatch


Whitaker then told several people that he was going to become a pundit on cable news in hope of being noticed by Trump. Trump’s Top Lawman Cut Teeth With Partisan Attacks, TV Spots - Bloomberg




In an August 2017 tweet, he requested that his followers read an article titled "Note to Trump's lawyer: Do Not cooperate with Mueller Lynch Mob".

Whitaker believes that Chief Justice John Marshall incorrectly held in Marbury v. Madison, 5 U.S. 137 (1803) that the Supreme Court is the final arbiter of constitutional issues. Acting Attorney General Once Declared Courts ‘Inferior’ and Criticized Supreme Court’s Power - The New York Times Whitaker's opinion is pure crackpot . In TrumpWorld, it is the Duck who can decide what is and is not constitutional. After the Duck passes, his son Baron Trump will become the final arbiter. 


Matthew Whitaker's controversial prosecution of a gay Democrat - CNN 


Iowa Democrat accuses Matt Whitaker of politically motivated prosecution in decade-old case


As far as I can tell, Whitaker's sole qualification is his total fealty to the Duck. 


Everything Trump Touches Dies: A Republican Strategist Gets Real About the Worst President Ever eBook: Rick Wilson: Kindle Store Rick Wilson has a way with words. I am listening to the audiobook version that is available under my Scribd subscription. 


Whitaker can serve no more than 210 days as acting AG under the Federal Vacancies Reform Act, 5 U.S. Code § 3345 et. seq., which period can be extended when the President nominates an AG for senate confirmation.   


His appointment as acting AG, a "principal" position, may be illegal under the Appointments Clause of the Constitution, Article II, Section 2, Clause 2. National Labor Relations Board v. SW General, Inc (Supreme Court 2017)
Matthew Whitaker's Appointment as Acting Attorney General: Three Lingering Questions - Lawfare If successfully challenged on that basis, every action taken by Whitaker as AG would be illegal.  


Deranged Don's News Conference Last Wednesday:


Trump held a news conference last Wednesday where he returned to his normal mean-spirited, egomaniacal, vituperative, deeply authoritarian, incoherent and unhinged statements. The Trumpsters love it. 


Fact-checking Trump's combative press conference 


He returned to his favorite topic, calling the free press the enemy of the people. According to Donald, it was the free press, rather than Teflon Don, who was responsible for republican losses.  


Demagogue Don warned the Democrats that any investigation of him will result in a retaliation. Trump warns House Dems against 'war-like' posture in boastful, bitter remarks-POLITICO  


Donald can not stop House investigations which is why he is already threatening anyone who dares to launch one-no matter how justified the investigation may be. 


Don the Con made it clear that he would not cooperate with the Democrats on passing legislation if they started to investigate him. When he starts hurling threats like that, he sure sounds guilty as hell.


Jim Acosta responds after heated exchange with Trump - YouTubeWhite House Revokes Press Credentials for CNN's Jim Acosta | Time Trump did not like Acosta's question or being challenged in any way about his characterization of the caravan as an "invasion". Caravan Walks Quietly On, U.S. Opposition a Distant Rumble  


White House shares doctored video to support punishment of journalist Jim Acosta - The Washington Post ("The edited video looks authentic: Acosta appeared to swiftly chop down on the arm of an aide as he held onto a microphone while questioning President Trump. But in the original video, Acosta’s arm appears to move only as a response to a tussle for the microphone. His statement, “Pardon me, ma’am,” is not included in the video Sanders shared."); Fact-checking distorted video Sarah Sanders used to bar a CNN White House reporter | PolitiFact Just more Fake News from the Lying Don who later denied that the video had been altered. Donald received the doctored video from Alex Jones conspiracy website Infowars. 


An African American reporter asked Donald whether he has emboldened White Nationalists by calling himself a "nationalist". The Duck dismissed her, stating that her question was "racist". Trump accuses black reporter of asking 'racist' question He later referred to that reporter as a "loser" and  "very nasty".  Trump Calls Reporter April Ryan a 'Loser' and 'Nasty' as He Continues His Assault on Black Female Journalists 

Trump assails three black female reporters;


‘What a stupid question’: Trump demeans three black female reporters in three days - The Washington Post


Apparently this is how republicans reach out to non-caucasians. 


Instead of recognizing his major role in republican losses, the Duck opined that republicans lost by failing to slavishly embrace him. 

If only they had taken a knee and kissed the ground that Donald walks upon, praising him as the wisest and smartest leader in the universe since the big bang (and in all known and unknown dimensions and alternate reality universes as well), then victory would have been in their grasp.

He identified and trashed several republicans by name who did not embrace Trumpism full throttle with abject subservience. President blasts Republican candidates who lost in midterms-MarketWatch  


One of those former GOP representatives was Mia Love (Utah) who was the only black woman republican in Congress. Mia, Trump said, did not give him enough love. Donald's criticism of Ms. Love was another aspect of the GOP's outreach program to non-caucasians. Actually, Utah is still counting votes. Ms. Love has not lost yet but will probably lose.    


What is far worse from Donald's perspective is that those republicans did not engage in enough demagoguery and knowingly false representations to the voters, the very essence of being true to Trumpism. Donald's demagoguery continues to work with white nationalists and those who are easily manipulated with false information and narratives. 

Rather than changing, Trump will double down on his lies and demagoguery as evidenced by his remarks post election.  


Trump is now back to claiming that counting votes is tantamount to stealing an election.  


He is making a number of statements that make claims unsupported by evidence as part of his ongoing efforts to undermine the democratic process and institutions necessary for its proper functioning. 




Nothing unusual about vote count in Arizona dragging on - The Washington Post ("There is zero evidence of anything unusual going on in the Arizona vote-counting - and no elected Republican officials in the state have cried foul.")


Senator Jeff Flake (R-AZ) slams Trump for doubting vote count: There is no evidence of 'electoral corruption'


The primary method for voting in Arizona is by mail, which is why it is taking so long to count the votes. 

Even for This President, It Was a Remarkable Week of Attacks on American Institutions - The New York Times


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US appeals court rules against Trump on DACA immigration programRead the decision upholding ruling blocking Trump from ending DACA 

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A. Added 50 HTPRD at $22.3-Used Schwab Commission Free Trade




Par Value: $25
Optional Call Date: On or after 5/31/21
Cumulative Dividends: Yes
Stopper Clause: Yes  
Dividends: Paid Quarterly
Last Ex Dividend Date: 9/28/18 
Maturity Date: Potentially perpetual subject to issuer's call right
Qualified Dividends: No, pass through entity; Hersha Hospitality Trust Announces Dividend Classification for 2017

Last Substantive Buy DiscussionItem 3.A. Bought 50 HTPRD at $22.98-Used Commission Free Trade (3/1/18 Post) I still own that lot. 


Issuer WebsiteHersha Hospitality Trust

Last Issuer Earnings Release: Q/E 9/30/18

Hersha Hospitality Trust Announces Third Quarter 2018 Results


As the owner of the preferred stock rather than the common, I am only concerned about the ability to pay the preferred share dividend rather than the equity value of the business. I did not see anything in this last report that would cause me to have concerns now about Hersha's ability to pay the preferred stock dividend.


The preferred stock dividend has to be paid for as long as a cash dividend is paid to the common stock shareholders. The preferred shareholders' superior right to cash compared to the common shareholders is enforced by the Stopper Clause:



Page S-16 Prospectus
The market reacted negatively to this report.

Hersha Hospitality Trust (HT) CEO Jay Shah on Q3 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

Two Year HTPRD History in This Account


With the rise in interest rates over the two year period reflected in the previous snapshot, fixed coupon equity preferred stocks will trend down in price. 

Small Ball Trading Strategy for HTPRD: The general idea will be to profitably sell the 50 share lot bought at a total cost of $22.98 which may be possible shortly before the next ex dividend date. 

I would then keep the lot bought at $22.3.

I may then rinse and repeat.


If I sell the lot bought at $22.98 profitably, then I will look for an opportunity to buy the lot back somewhere in the $21 to $21.75 range and then rinse and repeat if possible. This is typical small ball trading designed to reduce risk, lower my cost basis, realize some trading gains in addition to the dividend yield, harvest at least one dividend and reduce my dollar exposure over time through lowering my average cost per share.  


Realized Gains To Date: $313.49:

B. Bought 50 HTPRD at $21.34 in Vanguard Roth IRA Account:



I am now at my maximum 150 share position in this equity preferred stock, with the lowest price shares bought in a Roth IRA account.

As part of my risk management strategy, I will place limits on my maximum dollar exposure. The limit on HTPRD is based primarily on interest rate risk and secondarily on credit risk.


Prior HTPRD History in this ROTH IRA Account:




Dividend Yield at $21.34 = 7.61%


2.  Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy

A. Bought 1 Caterpillar Finance 2.95% SU Bond Maturing on 5/15/20-In a Roth IRA Account:



FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)


Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of who does not guarantee the notes


Credit Ratings:




Bought at a Total Cost of 99.92

YTM at TC Then at 3.004%
Current Yield at TC = 2.9524%

B. Bought 3 Three Month T Bills at Auction Maturing on 2/7/19 :

IR = 2.366%


Auction Results:



C. Bought 1 One Year Treasury Bill at Auction Maturing on 11/7/19:

IR = 2.737%



Auction Results: 


I have slowed down my purchases of treasury bills since I am expecting higher rates. 

3. REGIONAL BANK BASKET STRATEGY:

A. Added 10 HBAN at $13.85-Used Fidelity Commission Free Trade:




Quote: Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN)


Closing Price Last Friday: HBAN $14.67 -$0.06 -0.41% 


HBAN Consensus Analyst E.P.S. Estimates

2018: $1.23
2019: $1.39

Current Position This Account: 30 Shares


Average Cost Per Share: $14.29


For regional bank stock purchases, I am for the most part catching falling knives.


Maximum Position This Account: 100 shares + Share Bought with Dividends


Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share ($.56 annually), raised from $.11 effective for the 2018 third quarter


Dividend Yield at AVTCPS of $14.29: 3.92%

Dividend Yield at $13.85: 4.04%

Next Ex Dividend Date: 12/17/18


Dividend Reinvestment: Yes


HBAN Trading Profits to Date: $434.13


Last EliminationItem # 3.A. Sold 100 HBAN at $16.12  (2/3/18 Post)


Last Earnings Report: Q/E 9/30/18 


I thought this was overall a good report. NIM was up only 3 basis points to 3.22%, however, Y-O-Y. 


HBAN reported "net income for the 2018 third quarter of $378 million, an increase of 37% from the year-ago quarter.  Earnings per common share for the 2018 third quarter were $0.33, up 43% from the year-ago quarter.  Tangible book value per common share as of 2018 third quarter-end was $7.06, a 3% year-over-year increase.  Return on average assets was 1.42%, return on average common equity was 14.3%, and return on average tangible common equity (ROTCE) was 19.0%."



Capital ratios are okay IMO: 



The Charge-Off ratio was excellent at .16%. 


Huntington Bancshares Incorporated Reports 2018 Third Quarter Earnings Of $0.33 Per Common Share


I also own 2 HBAN 3.125% SU bonds maturing on 3/14/2021: Item # 2.C. (9/16/18 Post)Bond Detail.


B.  Bought 20 VLY at $9.45-Used Fidelity Commission Free Trade:




Quote: Valley National Bancorp  (VLY)

VLY Analyst Estimates

Closing Price Last Friday: VLY $10.07 -$0.01 -0.10% 


Current Position: 20 Shares


Maximum Position: 100 Shares


Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule


Dividend: Quarterly at $.11 per share


Dividend Yield at a Total Cost of $9.45 per share = 4.66%


Last Ex Dividend Date: 9/13/18


Dividend History: Unfavorable Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Dividend  History - Nasdaq


5 Year Chart: Awful Valley National Bancorp Interactive Chart


Last Sell DiscussionsItem # 2.A. Eliminated VLY Sold 51+ VLY at $12.76 (7/25/18 Post)Item # 2.B. Sold 60 VLY at $12.52 (1/28/18 Post)


Last Buy DiscussionItem 1.B. Added 50 VLY in 3 Commission Free Trades (12/7/17 Post)


Last Earnings Report: Q/E 9/30/18


Valley National Bancorp Reports Increased Third Quarter Net Income and 15 Percent Annualized Loan Growth


Net income for the third quarter was reported at $69.6M or $.2 per share which included "infrequent charges of $4.8 million ($3.4 million after-tax) mainly related to the impairment of branches selected for closure, merger expenses related to the USAmeriBancorp, Inc. ("USAB") acquisition and litigation reserves."


"Excluding these charges and other non-core items, our adjusted net income was $73.1 million, or $0.21 per diluted common share, for the third quarter of 2018, $46.4 million, or $0.17 per diluted common share, for the third quarter of 2017, and $75.2 million, or $0.22 per diluted common share, for the second quarter of 2018."


"Loans increased $876.6 million, or 15.1 percent on an annualized basis, to approximately $24.1 billion at September 30, 2018 from June 30, 2018. The increase was largely due to solid organic loan growth within most loan categories.  Additionally, we sold approximately $151 million of residential mortgage loans resulting in pre-tax gains of $3.7 million during the third quarter of 2018."


NIM: 3.12% (up from 3.03% in the 2017 third quarter)

ROA = .96% (below average)
ROTE = 13.61% (below average)
Adjusted Efficiency Ratio = 57.85%% (okay +)
Non Accrual Loans to Total Loans: .33% (good) 
Total Risk Based Capital Ratio: 11.55% (low IMO) 
Charge Offs: Net recovery of $231K (excellent)

Taxi Medallion loans remained a problem. 


RBC reiterated its outperform rating after this report but reduced its price target to $12 from $13. 

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) CEO Ira Robbins on Q3 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

4. Income Generation:

A. Added 10 GDO at $15.44 and 10 at $15.29 -Used Commission Free Trades:






Quote: Western Asset Global Corp Defined Opportunity Fund Inc.  (GDO)


Closing Price Last Friday: GDO $15.40 -$0.05 -0.32% 


Last Substantive Discussion: Item # 1.C. Bought 15 GDO at $16.27-Used Fidelity Commission Free Trade (9/16/18 Post)


Sponsor's Website: WA Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. | Legg Mason


Current Position: 180+ shares


Average Cost Per Share: $16.4


Maximum Position: 300 Shares


Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule


Dividend: Monthly at $.101 per share ($1.21 annually)


Dividend Yield at TC of $16.4 = 7.38%

Dividend Yield at $15.29  (lowest price in current chain) = 7.91%

Last Ex Dividend Date: 10/18/18


Data as of $15.44 Purchase (10/23/18):

Closing Market Price:$15.51
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share = $17.49
Discount: -11.32%

Data as of $15.29 Purchase (10/30/18):

Closing Market Price: $15.28
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share = $17.36
Discount: -11.98%

Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Inc. (GDO): Form N-Q (holdings as of 7/31/18; cost at $343.948+M/value at $350.249+M) I suspect that there is now a net unrealized loss.  


GDO Page at CEFConnect


B. Added 10 OFS at $11.07 and 10 at $10.75-Used Fidelity Commission Free Trades:




Quote: OFS Capital Corp.  (OFS)


Closing Price Last Friday: OFS $11.27 -$0.02 -0.18% 


Last Substantive DiscussionItem # 3.B. Bought 20 OFS at $11.7 (10/17/18 Post)


Current Position this Account: 50 Shares


Average Cost Per Share = $11.3


Last Reported Net Asset Value Per Share (as of 9/30/18): $13.75


Discount to NAV Per Share at $11.3 = -17.81%


Maximum Position: 100 shares


Dividend: Quarterly at $.34 ($1.36 annually)


Next Ex Dividend Date: 12/14/18


Dividend Yield at $11.3 = 12.04%


Last Earnings Report: 9/30/18


This report was released after this last purchase.


OFS Capital Corporation Announces Third Quarter 2018 Financial Results




Book value per share increased to $13.75 per share from $13.7 as of 6/30/18. 


NII was reported at $.35 per share. 


The weighted average yield on performing debt investments was 12.14% as of 9/30/18. 


"As of September 30, 2018, floating rate loans comprised 79% of OFS Capital’s debt investment portfolio, with the remaining 21% in fixed rate loans, as a percentage of fair value." (emphasis added)


"As of September 30, 2018, the fair value of OFS Capital's debt investment portfolio totaled $357.7 million in 42 portfolio companies, of which 82% and 18% were senior secured loans and subordinated loans, respectively. As of September 30, 2018, we also held approximately $38.3 million in equity investments, at fair value, in 15 portfolio companies in which we also held debt investments and 5 portfolio companies in which we solely held an equity investment." (emphasis added)


10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/18  


OFS SEC Filings

DisclaimerI am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members. 

12 comments:

  1. I am receiving hundreds of comments virtually every hour, apparently generated by a machine, that make it difficult to select legitimate from spam comments. I have consequently added a word verification to submitting comments which may cut down on that problem, but will also make it slightly more burdensome for legitimate comments to be made.

    ReplyDelete
  2. While the bond market is closed today, and the normal Monday treasury auctions have been moved to Tuesday, there is an ongoing flight to safety into ETFs that own higher quality bonds.

    This would not include the junk bond ETFs:

    SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond ETF
    $34.96 -$0.185 -0.53%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/jnk

    It would include the treasury bond ETFs:

    iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
    $100.41 +$0.2385 +0.24%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/ief

    Investment grade corporate bond ETFs are down slightly:

    iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF
    $112.10 -0.08 -0.07%
    Last Updated: Nov 12, 2018 at 12:40 p.m. EST
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/lqd

    Electric utilities, other than those located in California, and equity REITs are generally up.
    Vanguard Real Estate ETF
    $81.18 +$0.58 +0.72%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vnq

    E.G. Duke Energy Corp.
    $86.58 +$1.00 +1.17%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/duk

    I am avoiding the California electric utilities:

    PG&E Corp
    $33.64 -$6.28
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pcg

    Some of the stocks that have moved the major market indexes to new highs since November 2016 are either in bear market territory now or soon will be. I am referring to stocks like AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOG, INTC, and NFLX.

    Apple is being hit today based on a Lumentum earnings warning where that firm informed investors that a major customer told it to materially cut back on delivering a component.

    Lumentum Holdings Inc.
    $38.89 -$17.06
    Last Updated: Nov 12, 2018 at 12:51 p.m. EST
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/lite

    ReplyDelete
  3. Using a one year YF chart for SPX, the S & P 500 stayed three trading days above its 200 days SMA line before breaking down again and piercing that line to the downside.

    On 11/7/2018, SPX's upside move was stymied short of the 50 and 100 day SMA lines and that index started to turn back down on the 8th. Today's close was at 2,726.22 -54.79 (-1.97%) with the 200 day line now at 2762.

    There were a lot of problems out there today.

    The U.S.D. resumed its upside move with the U.S. Dollar Index making a new 52 week high:

    U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
    52 WEEK RANGE 88.25 - 97.69
    97.65 + 0.65 +0.67%
    Last Updated: Nov 12, 2018 at 4:48 p.m. EST
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

    This has negative repercussions in multinational earnings and in emerging market debt and equity markets.

    I mentioned Apple and other tech companies in a prior comment.

    Apple Inc
    $194.17 -$10.30 -5.04%
    52 WEEK RANGE
    150.24 - 233.47
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aapl

    Amazon.com Inc.
    $1,636.85 -75.58 -4.41%
    52 WEEK RANGE 1,121.63 - 2,050.50
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/amzn

    That is a 20.18% decline in AMZN's price from the 52 week high.

    GS is tumbling due to its potential liability to Malaysia.

    The California utilities were smashed today. Two of the top five losers in the S & P 500 were EIX (down 12.2%) and PCG which finished down 17.4%

    GE's CEO sounded desparate in an interview saying it was urgent that the company pay down debt.

    Crude oil continues to crash.

    Donald is looking even more mentally unstable President than he did prior to the election.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trump is worried WE GET HIS FKING TAX RETURNS! And Don Jr lied to authorities when he said his father did not know about Trump Tower meeting w/ Russians. Trump has hundreds of LLCs offshore, and the State of NY, Manhattan can still charge him (absent statute of limitations) with tax evasion. We will see...

      Delete
  4. There are huge redemptions by hedgefund "investors" Of course, they aren't investors and these funds are not "hedged" They have had their worst year in 7, and they need to satisfy redemptions by Nov 15, to those "investors" who have asked for their money back. Only stupid-arse hedgefunds are going to wait til the 15th.

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  5. I see 2.1% on 2-month CDs on TDAmeritrade, it's suspicious that there isn't a 1-month, assuming the Fed will raise rates in Dec. Waiting to see what is offered tomorrow, Tuesday, or Wed. $50K for 2-month is $175.00 in interest, maybe it's not that big a deal. But I noticed only the 3-month CDs settled this week. So, that is a factor.

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    Replies
    1. Short term CD rates will now be lower than treasury bill investment rates.

      Schwab has a one month CD, offered by Beal Bank, that has a 1.95% coupon. That broker offers several 2 month CDs at 2.10%. That will be lower than the IR from the 2 month treasury bill that will be auctioned tomorrow.

      Generally, you have to go out at least 2 years to find a CD that offers a slightly better rate than the treasury. Even when that happens, the treasury would provide the better after tax yield when bought in a taxable account where a state taxes CD interest income while prohibited from taxing interest paid by the U.S. treasury.

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    2. Investment Rates on today's treasury bill auctions:

      1 Month = 2.234%
      2 Month = 2.325% (actually 54 days)
      3 Month = 2.387%
      6 Month = 2.531%

      https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/press_auctionresults.htm

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  6. The decline in the stock market so far is not sufficient-not even close-for me to make a major reallocation back into stocks.

    The small ball buying programs are analogous to peeking outside my bunker and risking a paper cut.

    If all of the securities bought using small ball rules went down 50%, I would suffer that paper cut.

    To implement the small ball buying programs, I am using either commission free trades or commission free ETFs.

    While several brokers including Fidelity and Schwab have a number of commission free ETFs, Vanguard nows offers commission free ETF trades on all ETFs other than the leveraged ones. That is about 1800+ commission free ETFs.

    On a day like yesterday, I look for something to buy and technology stocks were being hit hard led down by Apple.

    I had previously eliminated my position in the First Trust Technology Dividend Index ETF (TDIV):

    Monday, February 26, 2018
    Item # 3 Eliminated TDIV Sold 50 at $36.56 and 50+ at $36

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/02/observations-and-sample-of-recent_26.html

    Yesterday, I bought a 5 share lot at $35 in my Vanguard brokerage account.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tdiv

    Sponsor's Page:

    http://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=TDIV

    Holdings:
    https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfHoldings.aspx?Ticker=TDIV

    Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule (each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain)

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  7. I had a reader ask me about the leveraged bond CEF NBB a few weeks ago when the price was around $20.6.

    Nuveen Build America Bond Fund (NBB)
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nbb

    I had bought and sold that fund, and similar CEFs owning BABs, taxable municipal bonds issued under the Build America Bond program, many times but had sold those funds based on two fundamental issues: (1) interest rates on borrowed funds was rising and (2) the bonds owned by the fund, with their long durations, were going down in price including those bought with borrowed money. I did not like NBB at $20.6 based on what I knew a few weeks ago and my forecast for a continued rise in short to long term interest rates.

    The net asset value per share started the year at $22.4 and closed yesterday at $20.74. The market value over that period has gone from $21.91 to $19.05 or a 13.05% decline, easily offsetting the value of the dividends. The dividends would lose value through reinvestment over the past year as well, given the persistent decline in market prices.

    The discount to net asset value was at -2.19% on 1/2/18 and had expanded to -8.15% as of 11/12/18. The expansion of the discount is a known risk when net asset value per share is going down meaningfully which creates a double whammy for anyone buying on 1/2/18 for example.

    CEF Page:
    https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/NBB

    There is some news on NBB. The other Nuveen BABs fund, NBD, is about to be merged into NBB. And, the term limit, which was in 2024, has been eliminated with shareholder approval.

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20181101006190/en/Nuveen-Update-Closed-End-Fund-Merger

    When buying a bond fund, I prefer a liquidation date to a perpetual open date. It is hard to say whether the elimination of NBB's term date will be beneficial or detrimental. It depends on the future course of interest rates. For example, if interest rates are declining materially into the term date, and the fund then sells the bonds as part of the liquidation plan, that is not a good outcome if interest rates start to go back down shortly after the liquidation and recover past losses.

    I am not a fan of leverage bond CEFs now, but I managed to buy 30 shares of NBB today at $19.03. That starts a small ball buying program which will be similar to the one in progress for GDO.

    It is possible, though ultimately unknowable, that long term interest rates have peaked for high quality and long duration bonds. I doubt it which explains the meaningless starting buy of 30 shares.

    There is an interim partial monthly dividend that will go ex soon. The regular monthly rate is $.103 or $1.24 annually (rounded). The yield would then convert to 6.52% at a TC per share of $19.03.

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    Replies
    1. Correction: The old NBB term date was 6/30/20 rather than 2024:

      https://www.nuveen.com/closed-end-funds/NBB-Nuveen-Build-America-Bond-Fund

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  8. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2018/11/observations-and-sample-of-recent_14.html

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