Observations and Sample of Recent Trades: ARGD, ICMB, TEF, TRP, TRPPRE

Economy: 

Markit's September flash estimate for Eurozone manufacturing PMI declined to a 83 month low. The reading was 45.6. Any number below 50 indicates contraction. German manufacturing PMI declined to 41.4 from 43.5, the lowest level in 123 months. Eurozone manufacturing PMI drops in September to worst level in nearly 7 years - MarketWatch 

The Stock Jocks are dismissing evidence of a substantial slowdown in manufacturing as being irrelevant or incorrect.  

Markit PMI Releases

US existing home sales rise in August to 17-month high

Substantial Decline in Architecture Billings (declined to 47.2; any number under 50 indicates contraction; viewed by many as a leading indicator of new commercial real estate development)  

Trump and China shouldn't do a trade deal, CME Group chief economist says

Mnuchin claimed that the U.S. asked China to cancel the farm visit last Friday. Trump surprised when Mnuchin says he asked China to cancel farm tour; Cramer: Mnuchin is going to be trouble for making Trump look bad Donald wanted to know why China was asked to cancel the meeting, something that was not disclosed to investors for days. Mnuchin replied that the U.S. "didn’t want there to be any confusion." If the U.S. canceled the trip, why not say so last Friday? 

U.S. consumer confidence sinks to 3-month low on trade worries, softer jobs market - MarketWatch (index at 125.1, down from 134.2 in August)

US-China trade talks: UBS Axel Weber sees 'potential for resolution'

Donald claimed in his U.N. speech yesterday that he would not accept a "bad deal" with China. 

China Gives New Waivers for Tariff-Free U.S. Soy Purchases - Bloomberg

More Americans are house-rich

Home price growth slowed to a crawl in July, Case-Shiller’s 20-city index shows - MarketWatch (annual increase of 2% through July 2019) There is a lag in reporting. 

++++++

Markets and Market Commentary: 

Intermediate and longer term interest rates have experience fast and significant up and down moves this month: 

I quit selling corporate bonds during the brief surge in interest rates.

EBay warns of ‘dramatically increased’ shipping rates if Trump pulls U.S. out of Universal Postal Union - MarketWatch UPS and FDX may benefit when and if that happens. Universal Postal Union Meeting Today Has High Stakes for Holiday Shoppers - Barron's

Stocks will soar 17% through 2020, market bull Ed Yardeni predicts

Stock market’s eerie parallels to September 2007 should raise recession fears - MarketWatch

Hedge-fund billionaire raises cash to prepare for potential ‘market meltdown’ - MarketWatch

A majority of ultra-wealthy expect a recession and are hunkering down (based on a UBS survey of 360 families with a minimum net worth of $1.2B). 

+++++++

Trump:

It is interesting to me that republicans are circling the wagons around Donald,  while they were hot to impeach Clinton for lying about receiving oral sex from Monica. 

The Democrats have formally started the impeachment process in the House which may improve their position in the courts when seeking documents and witness testimony. 

I expect Trump to successfully obstruct those investigations for at least a year by refusing to produce documents and by instructing witnesses not to testify. Trump's attorneys at the Department of Justice will continue to aid and abet that obstruction with frivolous legal arguments. 

Even if the Democrats pass articles of impeachment, there will not be a single republican senator willing to convict. Even clear, compelling and convincing evidence of impeachable acts committed by Donald would not change that result. 

For the democrats, the bridge too far was Trump allegedly connecting military aid for Ukraine with its agreement to investigate Joe Biden and his son.    

At a time when Trump had just delayed a military aid package for the Ukraine, Donald reportedly discussed the need for Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden with Ukraine's newly elected President.  

Rudy Giuliani was actively pressuring Ukraine to launch an investigation during the same time period. 

Rudy Giuliani's quest for dirt on Biden via Ukraine-a timeline-The Guardian; 

Rudy Giuliani's Role In Trump Ukraine Call: NPR; 

Trump won't be prosecuted for Ukraine call about Biden. But Rudy Giuliani can.; 

Impeachment Inquiry: U.S. Ambassador Roped Into Rudy Giuliani’s Quest to Smear Biden  

Trump authorizes release of transcript of Ukraine call on Wednesday Trump now admits that he discussed the Bidens in that call. Trump admits he discussed Biden with Ukraine - Vox

Trump's claims about the Bidens are not factually supported but that is irrelevant to the Trumpsters. 

Trump Twists Facts on Biden and Ukraine - FactCheck.org

Fact-checking President Trump’s wild jabs at Joe Biden - The Washington Post; Trump’s Pinocchio-laden claims about Joe Biden, Ukraine and polls - The Washington Post

Trump, Joe Biden, Hunter Biden And Ukraine: 5 Questions Answered : NPR; 

Fact check: What Trump has been getting wrong on Biden and Ukraine 
  
Trump ordered hold on military aid days before calling Ukrainian president, officials say (Senator "Murphy, who spoke with Zelensky during an early September visit to Ukraine, said Monday that the Ukrainian president “directly” expressed concerns at their meeting that 'the aid that was being cut off to Ukraine by the president was a consequence' of his unwillingness to launch an investigation into the Bidens.") 

Trump confirms he withheld military aid from Ukraine, says he wants other countries to help pay; 

Trump Blames Europe for His Delay of Ukraine Aid - The New York Times; 

Trump’s Ukraine Explanations Are All Over The Map As House Gears Up For Impeachment 

The republican defense will be that Donald did not explicitly tell Ukraine's President that an investigation of Biden and his son was necessary in order to secure the almost $400M in U.S. military aid. That is a ridiculous defense given the fact pattern, designed to work on the weak minded, since it would be clearly understood there was a quid pro quo without one being explicitly stated.  

Trump urged Ukraine president 8 times to investigate Joe Biden's son

Trump holds up Ukraine military aid meant to confront Russia - POLITICO

Trump: ‘It doesn’t matter what I discussed’ on call that drew whistleblower’s complaint

The whistleblower's complaint was judged to be credible and a matter of "urgent concern" by the Inspector General of the Intelligence Community Michael Atkinson as defined in the statute. The Mysterious Whistleblower Complaint- Lawfare

Whistleblower files complaint about Trump “promise” to foreign leader - Vox

Once the Inspector General determined that the complaint was both credible and urgent, the law clearly required him to forward the complaint to Trump's Director of National Intelligence, Joseph McGuire, which he did. 

McGuire was then required by law to provide the Urgent and Credible complaint to Congress within 7 days which McGuire refused to do based on instructions received from the White House and Donald's attorneys at the DOJ. 

Atkinson then went around McGuire and directly informed Congress of the Complaint without divulging its contents. 

Rudy Giuliani tells Chris Cuomo he asked Ukraine about Joe Biden after denying it 30 seconds earlier - The Washington Post Showboat Rudy has lost his credibility.  

After preventing disclosure of the whistleblower complaint to the House and Senate Intelligence committees as required by law, Donald claimed the whistleblower was "highly partisan", while acknowledging that he did not know who filed the complaint, and asserted he was a victim of the "Radical Left Democrats and their Fake News Media Partners": 

The whistleblower's complaint reportedly goes beyond Donald's call with Ukraine's President and covers other maters. Trump Says He Will Release Transcript of Call With Ukraine’s President - The New York Times The whistleblower wants to discuss the matter with the House Intelligence committee. Schiff says House Intel committee hopes whistleblower will testify ‘as soon as this week’ - MarketWatch

Yesterday, the Senate passed unanimously a resolution requesting Trump to turn over the whistleblower complaint to the House and Senate Intelligence committees. GOP-led Senate unanimously passes resolution saying Trump should release whistleblower complaint Apparently the White House is working on redactions to that complaint before complying. Perhaps Barr will make another intentionally misleading summary of its contents before releasing the redacted version. 

Donald and his acolytes will smear anyone with knowingly false or factually unsupported statements who dares to contradict Donald, who stands in the way of Donald achieving his personal goals, or who discloses accurate information that he does not like. 

It is not surprising that the unnamed whistleblower is already being smeared by Donald. 

In addition to calling the whistleblower a "partisan", the Teflon Don has now questioned the patriotism of the whistleblower. Trump questions patriotism of whistleblower central to Ukraine firestorm 

Fox provides the venue and megaphone for  Trump's' smears which are supported by its TV personalities.  

Only after news leaked that Donald had put a hold on Ukraine's aid package, and after  bipartisan pressure thereafter, did the Duck finally release his hold on the aid. 

As Don the Authoritarian has said, he can do whatever he wants without repercussions. Trump says the Constitution says "I can do whatever I want as President" | C-SPAN.org 

Trump Lawyers Argue He Cannot Be Criminally Investigated - The New York Times

Vice President Pence said that Americans "do not care" about Trump's conflicts. Mike Pence targeted by GOP group over Trump alleged business conflicts: USA Today  Sure, Republicans do not care since Donald is a republican. 

Tracking Trump’s Conflicts of Interest-Sunlight Foundation; Trump's 2,000 Conflicts of Interest (and Counting) - CREW

Covering up the corruption: GOP tries to block probe of Mike Pence's Ireland trip | Salon.com; Trump made 'suggestion' Pence stay at president's Irish golf club, VP's chief of staff says

Pentagon Says It Spent $184,000 in 2 Years at Trump’s Scotland Resort - The New York Times

Trump sues Manhattan DA Cyrus Vance Jr. over attempt to get tax returns Donald certainly does not want anyone looking at his tax returns. What is the probability that he has committed tax fraud? 

Trump nominee Michael Pack used nonprofit donations to fund media firm; Film company founded by Trump nominee profited off think tank deal  

+++++

1. Small Ball-Income Generation (all purchases made with commission free trades):

A. Bought 50 TEF at $7.34:

Quote: TEF | Telefonica S.A. ADR Overview | MarketWatch

Closing Price Yesterday: TEF $7.49 -$0.03 -0.40% 

This is my first purchase of TEF stock.

Shareholders & Investors -Telefónica

Business Overview: TEF is a diversified telecommunications company that operates in Europe and Latin America. The company provides wireline, wireless cable, data, internet, television and other digital services. 

TEF - Telefonica S.A. (ADR) Key Developments | Reuters

Customers:

Subsidiaries include Telefonica Spain, Telefonica Brazil, Telefonica Germany, Telefonica United Kingdom and Telefonica Hispanoamerica (operations in Argentina, Chile, Peru, Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Uruguay)

Category: Lottery Ticket Basket based on long term chart

Long Term Chart: TEF never recovered from the Near Depression.

Basic Stock Information at time of purchase:

Dividends: Semi-Annually (ex dividend in June and December)

There is a tax treaty between Spain and the U.S. that imposes a 15% limit on Spain's withholding tax for dividends paid to U.S. citizens. The broker still has to claim their U.S. citizen tax treaty right to that limit, which many will fail to do. When there is no treaty right claim made at the source, the foreign country will collect its highest tax percentage as if the U.S. citizen was a citizen of a country that had no tax treaty with Spain.

Last Ex Dividend: 6/18/19

Last Earnings Report:

2019 Guidance:

Stock Reports:

Morningstar (7/25/19): 5 stars with a FV of US$14 (reduced from $14.5)

S & P (7/30/19): 3 Stars with a 12 month PT of $8

Maximum Position: 100 shares

Current Position: 50 shares

Purchase restriction: Small Ball Rule

Other News: Spain's Telefonica looks to make money from mobile towers - Reuters

Concerns: Heavy debt load, viable competitors, high capital and labor costs, periodic major financial crises in Latin American countries which are also growth markets   

B. Added 50 ICMB at $6.88-Probably Masochistic: 

Quote Investcorp Credit Management BDC Inc. Overview | MarketWatch

Closing Price Yesterday: ICMB $7.08 +$0.24 +3.51% 

I would attribute the price rise yesterday to individual investors buying the quarterly dividend, which is ex dividend today. 

Website: Investcorp Credit Management BDC, Inc.

SEC Filings

Investcorp is the new name for CM Finance, formerly traded under the CMFN symbol. CM Finance was IMO a deservedly hated BDC that has been destroying net assets for years, generating pathetic total returns for its shareholders. 

Investcorp Credit Management US LLC ("Investcorp") acquired a majority interest in the external management company effective 8/30/19. This BDC will now use "Investcorp’s resources to accelerate the pace at which we diversify our portfolio into new middle market lending relationships." Hope springs eternal and maybe this change will produce better results. Investcorp will also buy within two years of 8/31/19 

After my purchase, ICMB reported second quarter results which was more of the usual. 

Net asset value per share declined to $10.51 from 680,985 shares of new issued ICMB shares "at the most recently determined net asset value per share of the Company’s common stock at the time of such purchase, as adjusted as necessary to comply with Section 23 of the Investment Company Act." Investcorp will also purchase 680,985 ICMB shares in the open market over that same two year period.

Last Discussed: Item # 4 (4/24/19 Post) 

Current Position: 184+ Shares 

Dividend: $.25 per share  

Average Total Cost Per share = $7.41

Dividend Yield at Total Average Cost = 13.5%

Reinvestment: Yes as a means to average down 

Goal: Escape with a total return in excess of the dividends (likely will be difficult, which is optimistic) 

Net Asset Value History: Unfavorable 

Q/E  6/30/19: $10.51 
Q/E  3/31/19:  $ 11.14   10-Q 
Q/E 12/31/18: $11.49
Q/E 6/30/18:  $12.57 
Q/E 3/31/18:   $12.55
Q/E 12/31/17:  $12.5
Q/E  6/30/17:  $12.41
Q/E  6/30/16:  $11.9
Q/E  6/30/15:  $14.41 
IPO at $15 with net proceeds at $14.55 February 2014 

Based on my total cost per share of $7.41, the discount to the $10.51 per share net asset value at that price is 29.5%. That is a relevant number only if the external managers cease destroying assets. The decline in the net asset value per share numbers between 6/30/18 through 6/30/19, was 16.39%.  

It is hard to believe that anyone is paid for that performance. And, I would emphasize that the economy has been in an expansion cycle since the BDC sold shares to the public in 2014.  

Last Earnings Report (6/30/19): Unfavorable 

The NII per share number was below the dividend penny rate. Net asset value per share declined significantly. Investcorp Credit Management BDC, Inc. Reports Results for its Fiscal Fourth Quarter Ended June 30, 2019   

"The aggregate capital invested during the quarter totaled $32.2mm at cost, and investments were made at a weighted average yield of 11.47%." 

"Subsequent to June 30, 2019 and through September 9, 2019, (ICMB) invested $19.6 million in new and existing portfolio companies and received sales proceeds of $15.2 million. As of September 9, 2019, the Company had 34 portfolio companies." 

Investcorp Credit Management BDC, Inc. (ICMB) CEO Michael Mauer on Q4 2019 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

Claimed Asset Quality as of 6/30/19: 

Annual Report at pages 81-82 (list of loans starts at page 91)

The main Fusion Connect loan is on non-accrual, as indicated by the #, and has not been written down that much: 

Amortized Cost $11.874+M/Valued at $8.074+M

Note the debtor-in-possession loan which indicates that Fusion Connect is in bankruptcy. Fusion Connect Announces Bankruptcy Exit Date, Analyst Expects Asset Sale

C. Bought 10 TRP at $49.78: 

Quotes: 

USD: TC Energy Corp. (U.S.: NYSE)
CAD: TC Energy Corp. (Canada: Toronto)

Closing Price Yesterday: TRP $51.88 -$0.13 -0.25% 

In Item # 2 below, I discuss the purchase of a TC Energy reset equity preferred stock.

Asset Map:

TC Energy — Operations — Natural Gas Map
TC Energy — Oil and Liquids
TC Energy — Power
TC Energy — Operations Maps

Chart (Sept 2008 to Date of Purchase): 

This is my first common stock purchase. 

I have bought and sold TRP equity preferred stocks and senior unsecured bonds. In addition to TRPPRE discussed in Item # 2 below, I currently own one TRP reset equity preferred stock that pays cumulative dividends at a 1.28% spread to the 3 month Canadian treasury bill on a C$25 par value. Item # 3. Bought 100 TRPPRH at C$13  (2/23/19 Post)

I recently sold 1 TRP 2.5% SU bond maturing in 22 at 100.45. Item # 4.B. (9/7/19 Post)

Dividends: Quarterly at C$.75 per share 

TC Energy — Dividend Information

Next Ex Dividend: 9/27/19 (after purchase)  

Last Earnings Report: TC Energy reports strong second quarter financial results 

CAD profit of $924M or C$1 per share, up from C$.86 per share in the 2018 second quarter. TRP reported distributable cash flow of C$1.519B. 

Source

Other Recent News: 

TC Energy reaches agreement to sell Ontario natural gas-fired power plants for $2.87 billion ("interests in three Ontario natural gas-fired power plants to a subsidiary of Ontario Power Generation Inc., for approximately $2.87 billion. The facilities include the 683-megawatt Halton Hills power plant, the 900-megawatt Napanee generating station which is nearing completion and TC Energy’s 50 per cent interest in the 550-megawatt Portlands Energy Centre. The transaction is expected to close in late 2019."

TC Energy enters agreement to sell Columbia Midstream assets for US$1.275 billion

TC Energy expects to realize $1.15 billion from the partial monetization of Northern Courier Pipeline 

Court lifts injunction that blocked Keystone XL pipeline construction | PBS NewsHour; Keystone XL Pipeline's Alternate Route Gets Go-Ahead From Nebraska Supreme Court : NPR

Keystone XL Pipeline 

Stock Reports: 

S & P (8/13/19): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $57

Morningstar (9/3/19): 3 stars with a FV of $54

Maximum Position: 50 shares 

Current Position: 10 shares

Purchase Restriction: Small Ball Rule 

2. Bought 100 TRPPRE at C$15.60 (C$1 IB Commission): 

Quote: TRP-PE.TO

Security Description: This security reset its coupon commencing on 10/31/19 at 3.762%, a 2.35% spread to the 5 year Canadian bond yield.  

The coupon will reset in October 2024 at a 2.35% spread to the then existing 5 year Canadian bond yield. The issuer can redeem at par value on reset dates.

Issuer: TC Energy Corporation
Par Value: C$25
Current Yield at C$15.6 = 6.029%  
Next Ex Dividend: 9/27/19 (after purchase)

Prospectus Except: 

Chart: 

As with other Canadian reset preferred stocks, the price is depressed due to the abnormally low 5 year Canadian bond yields. 

Canada 5 Year Government Bond Overview | MarketWatch 

If the 5 year Canadian bond was at 4% on the October 2024 reset date, the new coupon for 5 years would become 6.35% which translates into a 10.18% yield at C$15.6.  

On the other hand, if the 5 year was at 1% then, the coupon would simply go down a tad from the current 3.903% to 3.35% which would translate into a 5.37% yield at C$15.06-less than 1% lower than the current yield. 

I will also occasionally convert CADs into USDs when I can do so profitably. The last conversion occurred when the CAD/USD was slightly over .8:  

Item #1.A  Converted C$18,747,15 to US$15,000(8/31/17 Post) 

The profit on that transaction was part of the US$1,917.2 CAD profit in 2017: 

ST Currency Profits 2017

In other words, I can increase my total return on these reset equity preferred positions by selling them profitably and then at some point profitably converting the CADs into USDs as I have done in the past. 

CAD / USD Currency Chart. Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Rates

Tax profits and losses are also realized whenever I buy a security on a foreign exchange which requires me to sell the foreign currency with a USD tax cost basis to pay for the trade. 

I have no intention of converting CADs back into USDs unless the CAD rises considerably in value. 

Realized Gains to Date Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks = C$10,643.5.

Snapshots included in Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities
   

3. Sold 50 ARGD at $25.7: 

Quote: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. 6.5% Senior Notes Due 2042 (ARGD) (this security formally traded under the AGIIL symbol)

Closing Price Yesterday: ARGD $25.76 +0.02 +0.08% 

Profit Snapshot: +$16.08 

Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds

This bond can be called now at anytime which is the problem. 

Security Description: 

Par Value: $25
Trades Flat
Interest: Quarterly 
Last Ex Interest Date: 8/28/19 (before sell)
Optional Redemption: At $25 plus accrued interest at issuer's option 
Final Prospectus Supplement
Guarantor: Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. (ARGO)


Realized ARGD Gains to Date: $385.95 (prior trades = $369.15)

I still own 100 shares with an average total cost of $25.10 which translates into a 6.474% yield. Item # 3.A. Bought 70 ARGD at $24.93 (12/26/18 Post); Item # 1.A. Bought 30 ARGD at $25.33-Used Commission Free Trade  (7/25/18 Post) 

Any profit on the shares is viewed as a victory. I received 13 quarterly interest payments on the 50 shares sold: 

Interest Payments = $264.03

4. Intermediate Term Bond Ladder Basket Strategy:

A. Sold 2 Sovran Acquisition L.P.  3.5% SU Maturing on 7/1/2026-In a Roth IRA Account:

Profit Snapshot: +$154.15

Item # 3.B. Bought 2 Sovran Storage 3.5% SU at a TC of 95.752 in a Roth IRA Account (3/27/19 Post) YTM was then at 4.184%.

FINRA Page: Bond  Detail (prospectus linked)

Issuer: The issuer is an operating subsidiary of Life Storage Inc.  (LSI)
Sovran Self Storage, Inc. to Rebrand as Life Storage
SEC Filings

Sold at 103.873
YTM at 103.873 = 2.903%

I previously sold 2 bonds held in another account. Item # 3.A. Sold 2 Sovran 2026 SU at 98.872 (6/23/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $37.54)-Item # 2.C. Bought 2 Sovran Storage 3.5% SU at a TC of 96.985 (8/16/17 Post)

5. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy: 

A. Early Issuer Redemption: 4 HTA 2.95% SU Maturing in 2022: 

Profit Snapshots: $155.02

Item # Bought 2 HTA SU 2022 at a TC of 98.91 (3/31/19 Post); Item # 4.A. Bought 2 HTA 2022 SU IB Account at a TC of 98.807 (2/22/18 Post)

The issuer paid a make whole premium of $27.34 per bond or $109.36 for the 4 bonds. The annual interest payment per bond was $29.5. 

I also received $25.9 in accrued and unpaid interest for the 4 bonds. The last semi-annual payment was made 7/1/19. 

B. Sold 1 Caterpillar Financial Services 2.95% SU Maturing on 5/15/20-In a Roth IRA Account:  

Profit Snapshot: +$5.6

Item # 2.A. Bought 1 Caterpillar Financial 2020 SU at a Total Cost of 99.92 -In a Roth IRA Account (11/11/18 Post) YTM was then at 3.004%. 

FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)

Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of Caterpillar (CAT) who does not guarantee the bond

Sold at 100.58

YTM at 2.121%

C. Sold 2 JP Morgan  2.55% SU Maturing on 3/1/21:

Profit Snapshot: $35.18

I bought this bond in January 2019. Item # 2.A. Bought 2 JPM 2021 SU at a Total Cost of  98.889 (2/9/19 Post) The YTM was then at 3.099%.

FINRA Page: Bonds Detail (prospectus not linked)

Issuer: JPMorgan Chase & Co.  (JPM)
JPM Analyst Estimates

Sold at 100.748
YTM at 100.788 = 2.013%
Proceeds at 100.648 (after $1 per bond commission)

D. Bought $5,000 SNOXX: 

The MM fund will be one of the short term alternative to Schwab's low yielding sweep account that currently pays .18%. The other alternatives are 28 and 56 days treasury bills bought at auction. 

I discussed this purchase in a comment published earlier this week. 

SNOXX Details as of 9/23/19: 

Schwab Purchased MM Funds: 

The key difference is that Schwab removed any minimums for the investor classes. Expense ratios are still much higher than comparable Vanguard MM funds. 

Yields will continue to come down as the Fed cuts the FF rate. 

E. Bought 2 Treasury 6 Month Bills at Auction Maturing on 3/5/19:
1.873%IR

Auction Results:

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.