Market Commentary:
A. Bonds:
After a Summer Bond Binge, Signs of Angst Are Growing in the Market - Bloomberg
A. Bonds:
After a Summer Bond Binge, Signs of Angst Are Growing in the Market - Bloomberg
U.S. Default? Unlikely, But Bond Traders Are Taking No Chances - Bloomberg
I have started to reduce somewhat my weighted average bond duration by selling longer duration securities and buying short term bonds and CDs. The short term ladder has several maturing securities each month. I will consequently have a constant flow of redemption proceeds over the next three years that can be redeployed into whatever appears reasonable at the time. I view current stock prices and long duration bond yields to have considerable downside risk.
Cramer breaks down your bond exposure by age — how to protect yourself from market volatility: CNBC
Retirement Portfolio Allocation | Charles Schwab
Flaws With the 100 Minus Age Allocation Rule
The most important problems going forward in making asset allocations is that bonds are in the 35th year of a long term secular bull market with historically low yields and stocks are richly valued based on future predictions that may turn out to be way off.
B. Stocks:
‘Just say no’ to the S&P 500 and buy these stocks instead, say GMO’s strategists - MarketWatch; GMO White Paper link: the-s-p-500-just-say-no.pdf (buy emerging market and international high quality stocks and own as little as you can of U.S. equities)
I would not agree with that assessment. Most U.S. based investors need to concentrate on what they know best and gain international exposure through U.S. based multinationals. The currency risks associated with foreign securities can be profound and did in fact contribute to poor performance of foreign stock ETFs over the past few years.
Annual Average Five Year Returns Through 8/16/17:
SPDR® S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Total Returns = 14.15%
Vanguard FTSE Europe Index Fund ETF Shares (VGK) Total Returns = 8.76% (2.14% over 10 yrs)
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund ETF Shares (VEU) Total Returns = 7.31% (2.15% over 10 years)
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VWO) Total Returns = 3.65% (2.88% over ten years)
Performance of foreign stock funds priced in USDs has been much better this year as the USD started to decline in value against most major foreign currencies and prices rose in local currencies.
Investors waiting for the promised land in those funds over the past ten years have instead experienced total returns barely above the inflation rate. There is certainly a possibility of mean reversion where U.S. stocks stagnant for several years while international stocks go up meaningfully.
I do own several foreign quality stocks including Nestle and Novartis.
C. Foreign Economies:
Japan’s Economy Grows Again, in Longest Streak in 11 Years - The New York Times ("Japanese gross domestic product increased by 4 percent in annualized terms in the three months through June. . The economy has now expanded for six consecutive quarters, the first time it has gone that long without a contraction since the 2005-6 period.")
China's Economic Growth Dials Back - Bloomberg (some slowing from higher growth numbers-nothing to worry about yet IMO)
Eurostat reported today that its GDP flash estimate for the second quarter showed .6% growth in both the euro area and the EU28 and +2.2% and +2.3 % respectively Y-O-Y. Eurostat However, industrial production did decline -.6% in June compared to May in the Euro area and -.5% in the EU28. Eurostat
++++++++
Economic Reports:
Retail Sales:
The government reported on that retail sales rose last month at a greater than expected .6% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Retail Sales July 2017.pdf
However, I would note that Amazon's Prime Day promotion occurred last Month. Nonstore retailers experienced a 1.3% gain in sales.
It is also important to note that the savings rate fell to 3.8% last quarter from 6.2% during the 2015 second quarter while wage growth is relatively stagnant at 2.5% or slightly highly than the inflation rate.
Strong U.S. retail sales bolster third quarter growth outlook: Reuters
I would also note that the unadjusted number for July 2017 showed a decline from June 2017 (see Table 1).
The better than expected number caused the Bond Ghouls to increase the odds of a .25% rate increase on or before the FED's December meeting. The probability assigned for a .25% hike has jumped to 54.7% from 37.4% last Friday. CME FedWatch Tool
B. Household Debt:
The NY FED reported that household debt hit a record in the 2017 second quarter. Total Household Debt Increases, Driven by Mortgage, Auto and Credit Card Debt - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK ("Of note, credit card balance flows into both early and serious delinquencies increased from a year ago – a persistent upward movement not seen since 2009. Meanwhile, delinquency flows for other non-housing debt increased modestly, and in particular, the upward trend for auto loans in recent years continued."); HHDC_2017Q2.pdf
++++++++++
Trump Finally Manages To Criticize White Supremacists And Then Walks it Back:
Trump has repeatedly failed to even criticize White Nationalists.
It took a murder in Charlottesville committed by one, and widespread public criticism for his refusal to condemn these belligerent racists by name, for him to publicly rebuke them last Monday (8/14/17). Trump calls KKK, white supremacists 'repugnant' (8/14/17)- CNN
Reagan never had that trouble:
Letter to the Chairman of the Commission on Civil Rights Concerning the President's Views on the Ku Klux Klan
The White Nationalists are after all a critical part of the GOP's base now. I am using the term "White Nationalists" to include more than just the Nazis, KKK and other organized white supremacist groups.
On the same day day (8/14/17), however, Trump blasted Merck's CEO, Kenneth Frazier, who criticized racists and praised what use to be fundamental and traditional American values:
Trump's Reply:
It took Donald about 1 hour to respond to Frazier's tweet. Kenneth Frazier quits Trump manufacturing council; Trump lashes out - Aug. 14, 2017
Is he primarily engaged during the workday in reading and writing tweets and watching TV?
Infowars' Alex Jones falsely says George Soros, Hillary Clinton instigated Charlottesville violence | PunditFact
Alex Jones: A lot of KKK protesters are “Jewish actors” who look like the “cast of Seinfeld” with their hoods off
How the Liberal Media Created Charlottesville - Townhall (Townhall and its owner Salem Media Group refer to themselves as conservative. Using the warped definition of conservatism that has gained dominance in the GOP, that publication and its owner are conservative.)
A Guide To Donald Trump’s Relationship With Alex Jones (Trump has praised Alex Jones)
All the Charlottesville conspiracy theories from Trump's Friends in the lunatic fringe: Slate
Stephen Colbert Attempts To List Everything Trump Has Attacked Harder Than Nazis
Controversial Trump Aide Katharine Gorka Helped End Funding For Group That Fights White Supremacy; The husband-and-wife team Sebastian and Katharine Gorka driving Trump's national security policy-POLITICO
Trump did not really believe in his criticism of White Nationalism that he read from a teleprompter on Monday.
Trump waited just one day after his Monday remarks to reveal what he really believes.
The following statements made by Trump are of course welcomed by the White Nationalists, particularly the part about comparing Robert E. Lee and other confederate generals to George Washington and Thomas Jefferson. Statues of confederate generals and politicians are merely symbols of White Nationalism now. And, unless we forget, the confederates were traitors to the United States (all of my ancestors that participated in the Civil War did so on the Confederate side, primarily in the Army of Tennessee)
Trump is unable to see a difference between a George Washington statue and one of a confederate general:
“You had people in that group who were protesting the taking down of what to them is a very, very important statue. Many of those people were there to protest the taking down of the statue of Robert E. Lee. This week, it is Robert E. Lee and this week, Stonewall Jackson. Is it George Washington next? You have to ask yourself, where does it stop? You're changing history and culture ”
CBO: Trump threat to scrap cost-sharing payments would increase federal deficits, premiums - MarketWatch; Premiums and deficit would rise if Trump ends Obamacare payments, CBO says - CBS News (Trump never mentions the consequences from withholding those cost sharing payments)
Trump retweets cartoon appearing to show train hitting CNN reporter (just more juvenile behavior from the U.S. President).
I have started to reduce somewhat my weighted average bond duration by selling longer duration securities and buying short term bonds and CDs. The short term ladder has several maturing securities each month. I will consequently have a constant flow of redemption proceeds over the next three years that can be redeployed into whatever appears reasonable at the time. I view current stock prices and long duration bond yields to have considerable downside risk.
Cramer breaks down your bond exposure by age — how to protect yourself from market volatility: CNBC
Retirement Portfolio Allocation | Charles Schwab
Flaws With the 100 Minus Age Allocation Rule
The most important problems going forward in making asset allocations is that bonds are in the 35th year of a long term secular bull market with historically low yields and stocks are richly valued based on future predictions that may turn out to be way off.
B. Stocks:
‘Just say no’ to the S&P 500 and buy these stocks instead, say GMO’s strategists - MarketWatch; GMO White Paper link: the-s-p-500-just-say-no.pdf (buy emerging market and international high quality stocks and own as little as you can of U.S. equities)
I would not agree with that assessment. Most U.S. based investors need to concentrate on what they know best and gain international exposure through U.S. based multinationals. The currency risks associated with foreign securities can be profound and did in fact contribute to poor performance of foreign stock ETFs over the past few years.
Annual Average Five Year Returns Through 8/16/17:
SPDR® S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Total Returns = 14.15%
Vanguard FTSE Europe Index Fund ETF Shares (VGK) Total Returns = 8.76% (2.14% over 10 yrs)
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund ETF Shares (VEU) Total Returns = 7.31% (2.15% over 10 years)
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VWO) Total Returns = 3.65% (2.88% over ten years)
Performance of foreign stock funds priced in USDs has been much better this year as the USD started to decline in value against most major foreign currencies and prices rose in local currencies.
Investors waiting for the promised land in those funds over the past ten years have instead experienced total returns barely above the inflation rate. There is certainly a possibility of mean reversion where U.S. stocks stagnant for several years while international stocks go up meaningfully.
I do own several foreign quality stocks including Nestle and Novartis.
C. Foreign Economies:
Japan’s Economy Grows Again, in Longest Streak in 11 Years - The New York Times ("Japanese gross domestic product increased by 4 percent in annualized terms in the three months through June. . The economy has now expanded for six consecutive quarters, the first time it has gone that long without a contraction since the 2005-6 period.")
China's Economic Growth Dials Back - Bloomberg (some slowing from higher growth numbers-nothing to worry about yet IMO)
Eurostat reported today that its GDP flash estimate for the second quarter showed .6% growth in both the euro area and the EU28 and +2.2% and +2.3 % respectively Y-O-Y. Eurostat However, industrial production did decline -.6% in June compared to May in the Euro area and -.5% in the EU28. Eurostat
++++++++
Economic Reports:
Retail Sales:
The government reported on that retail sales rose last month at a greater than expected .6% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Retail Sales July 2017.pdf
However, I would note that Amazon's Prime Day promotion occurred last Month. Nonstore retailers experienced a 1.3% gain in sales.
It is also important to note that the savings rate fell to 3.8% last quarter from 6.2% during the 2015 second quarter while wage growth is relatively stagnant at 2.5% or slightly highly than the inflation rate.
Strong U.S. retail sales bolster third quarter growth outlook: Reuters
I would also note that the unadjusted number for July 2017 showed a decline from June 2017 (see Table 1).
The better than expected number caused the Bond Ghouls to increase the odds of a .25% rate increase on or before the FED's December meeting. The probability assigned for a .25% hike has jumped to 54.7% from 37.4% last Friday. CME FedWatch Tool
B. Household Debt:
The NY FED reported that household debt hit a record in the 2017 second quarter. Total Household Debt Increases, Driven by Mortgage, Auto and Credit Card Debt - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK ("Of note, credit card balance flows into both early and serious delinquencies increased from a year ago – a persistent upward movement not seen since 2009. Meanwhile, delinquency flows for other non-housing debt increased modestly, and in particular, the upward trend for auto loans in recent years continued."); HHDC_2017Q2.pdf
++++++++++
Trump Finally Manages To Criticize White Supremacists And Then Walks it Back:
Trump has repeatedly failed to even criticize White Nationalists.
It took a murder in Charlottesville committed by one, and widespread public criticism for his refusal to condemn these belligerent racists by name, for him to publicly rebuke them last Monday (8/14/17). Trump calls KKK, white supremacists 'repugnant' (8/14/17)- CNN
Reagan never had that trouble:
Letter to the Chairman of the Commission on Civil Rights Concerning the President's Views on the Ku Klux Klan
The White Nationalists are after all a critical part of the GOP's base now. I am using the term "White Nationalists" to include more than just the Nazis, KKK and other organized white supremacist groups.
On the same day day (8/14/17), however, Trump blasted Merck's CEO, Kenneth Frazier, who criticized racists and praised what use to be fundamental and traditional American values:
Trump's Reply:
It took Donald about 1 hour to respond to Frazier's tweet. Kenneth Frazier quits Trump manufacturing council; Trump lashes out - Aug. 14, 2017
Is he primarily engaged during the workday in reading and writing tweets and watching TV?
Infowars' Alex Jones falsely says George Soros, Hillary Clinton instigated Charlottesville violence | PunditFact
Alex Jones: A lot of KKK protesters are “Jewish actors” who look like the “cast of Seinfeld” with their hoods off
How the Liberal Media Created Charlottesville - Townhall (Townhall and its owner Salem Media Group refer to themselves as conservative. Using the warped definition of conservatism that has gained dominance in the GOP, that publication and its owner are conservative.)
A Guide To Donald Trump’s Relationship With Alex Jones (Trump has praised Alex Jones)
All the Charlottesville conspiracy theories from Trump's Friends in the lunatic fringe: Slate
Stephen Colbert Attempts To List Everything Trump Has Attacked Harder Than Nazis
Controversial Trump Aide Katharine Gorka Helped End Funding For Group That Fights White Supremacy; The husband-and-wife team Sebastian and Katharine Gorka driving Trump's national security policy-POLITICO
Trump did not really believe in his criticism of White Nationalism that he read from a teleprompter on Monday.
Trump waited just one day after his Monday remarks to reveal what he really believes.
The following statements made by Trump are of course welcomed by the White Nationalists, particularly the part about comparing Robert E. Lee and other confederate generals to George Washington and Thomas Jefferson. Statues of confederate generals and politicians are merely symbols of White Nationalism now. And, unless we forget, the confederates were traitors to the United States (all of my ancestors that participated in the Civil War did so on the Confederate side, primarily in the Army of Tennessee)
Trump is unable to see a difference between a George Washington statue and one of a confederate general:
“You had people in that group who were protesting the taking down of what to them is a very, very important statue. Many of those people were there to protest the taking down of the statue of Robert E. Lee. This week, it is Robert E. Lee and this week, Stonewall Jackson. Is it George Washington next? You have to ask yourself, where does it stop? You're changing history and culture ”
He also concluded without evidence that not "all of those people were neo-Nazis, believe me. Not all of those people were white supremacists by any stretch.”
Perhaps he needed to listen to their chants during their night Tiki Torch march.
GOP lawmakers react to Trump: “very fine people” don’t participate in rallies with racist chants
Perhaps he needed to listen to their chants during their night Tiki Torch march.
GOP lawmakers react to Trump: “very fine people” don’t participate in rallies with racist chants
This was the chant: “Blood and soil!” “You will not replace us!” “Jews will not replace us!”
Trump probably knows and should know what those chants mean.
Blood and Soil is of course a Nazi slogan. What does "blood and soil" mean? White nationalists in Charlottesville chanted a Nazi slogan — Quartz; 'Blood and soil': Protesters chant Nazi slogan in Charlottesville - CNN The chant "Jews will not replace us" is self-explanatory.
White House Watch: Trump and the 'Very Fine People' Who March with Neo-Nazis | The Weekly Standard
Another favorite technique used by Trump is to constantly refer to the Lying Press, a phrase which gained prominence during the Hitler's regime. The Nazi term for the Fake News Media, meaning anyone who did not support the Nazis, was Lügenpresse'. He demonizes the press constantly and did so during this news conference calling them bad people. Full transcript: Donald Trump’s press conference defending the Charlottesville rally - Vox
The President's comments last Tuesday were what the KKK wanted to hear from the President:
Blood and Soil is of course a Nazi slogan. What does "blood and soil" mean? White nationalists in Charlottesville chanted a Nazi slogan — Quartz; 'Blood and soil': Protesters chant Nazi slogan in Charlottesville - CNN The chant "Jews will not replace us" is self-explanatory.
White House Watch: Trump and the 'Very Fine People' Who March with Neo-Nazis | The Weekly Standard
Another favorite technique used by Trump is to constantly refer to the Lying Press, a phrase which gained prominence during the Hitler's regime. The Nazi term for the Fake News Media, meaning anyone who did not support the Nazis, was Lügenpresse'. He demonizes the press constantly and did so during this news conference calling them bad people. Full transcript: Donald Trump’s press conference defending the Charlottesville rally - Vox
The President's comments last Tuesday were what the KKK wanted to hear from the President:
Trump also blamed the "Alt-Left" for the violence in their counter-protests to the KKK and Nazis. He claimed they were "very, very violent".
This is what actually happened according to the police:
"Charlottesville Police Chief Al S. Thomas Jr. said the rallygoers went back on a plan that would have kept them separated from the counterprotesters. Instead of coming in at one entrance, he said, they came in from all sides. Headlong into the counterprotesters. A few minutes before 11 a.m., a swelling group of white nationalists carrying large shields and long wooden clubs approached the park on Market Street. About two dozen counterprotesters formed a line across the street, blocking their path. With a roar, the marchers charged through the line, swinging sticks, punching and spraying chemicals. Counterprotesters fought back, also swinging sticks, punching and spraying chemicals. . ." Charlottesville timeline - How white supremacist protests turned deadly over 24 hours - Washington Post
Trump says he is only interested in making decisions after acquiring all of the facts. Here are some comments on that point made during the news conference:
"When I make a statement, I like to be correct. I want the facts. This event just happened. A lot of the event didn't happen yet as we were speaking. This event just happened. Before I make a statement, I need the facts. I don't want to rush into a statement. So making the statement when I made it was excellent."
"Honestly, if the press were not fake and if it was honest, the press would have said what I said was very nice. Unlike you (referring to a reporter) and unlike the media, before I make a statement, I like to know the facts."
"I would do it the same way, because I want to make sure when I make a statement that the statement is correct. There was no way of making a correct statement that early. I had to see the facts, unlike a lot of reporters."
"What about the alt left that came charging at, as you say, at the alt right? Do they have any assemblage of guilt? What about the fact that they came charging with clubs in their hands swinging clubs?Wait a minute. I'm not finished. I'm not finished, fake news"
Trump seemed earnest when claiming repeatedly that he wants to know the facts. If that is the case, it is profoundly delusional. He rarely makes accurate factual statements.
It may have been better for the protesters to allow those Trump supporters to beat them with clubs and spray chemicals at them without any response.
That Martin Luther King approach is hard to do when you are being attacked by those filled with rage and hate armed with clubs and chemical spray. Sure, I believe that some of those counter-protesters knew that they would be attacked by the Trump followers, probably have been in the past, and were ready and more than willing to defend themselves once attacked.
Trump says he is only interested in making decisions after acquiring all of the facts. Here are some comments on that point made during the news conference:
"When I make a statement, I like to be correct. I want the facts. This event just happened. A lot of the event didn't happen yet as we were speaking. This event just happened. Before I make a statement, I need the facts. I don't want to rush into a statement. So making the statement when I made it was excellent."
"Honestly, if the press were not fake and if it was honest, the press would have said what I said was very nice. Unlike you (referring to a reporter) and unlike the media, before I make a statement, I like to know the facts."
"I would do it the same way, because I want to make sure when I make a statement that the statement is correct. There was no way of making a correct statement that early. I had to see the facts, unlike a lot of reporters."
"What about the alt left that came charging at, as you say, at the alt right? Do they have any assemblage of guilt? What about the fact that they came charging with clubs in their hands swinging clubs?Wait a minute. I'm not finished. I'm not finished, fake news"
It may have been better for the protesters to allow those Trump supporters to beat them with clubs and spray chemicals at them without any response.
That Martin Luther King approach is hard to do when you are being attacked by those filled with rage and hate armed with clubs and chemical spray. Sure, I believe that some of those counter-protesters knew that they would be attacked by the Trump followers, probably have been in the past, and were ready and more than willing to defend themselves once attacked.
Trump puts a fine point on it: He sides with the alt-right in Charlottesville - The Washington Post The Alt-Right, which now dominates the GOP, elected him.
Trump Gives White Supremacists an Unequivocal Boost - The New York Times
He 'Went Rogue': President Trump's Staff Stunned After Latest Charlottesville Remarks - NBC News (really just showing his soul which should surprise no one)
"Of at least 372 murders that were committed by domestic extremists between 2007 and 2016, according to a study by the Anti-Defamation League, 74 percent were committed by right-wing extremists. Muslim extremists were responsible for 24 percent of those killings, and the small remainder were committed by left-wing extremists, the study concluded." One Theory Over Meaning of Trump’s ‘Many Sides’ Remark - The New York Times
Trump Gives White Supremacists an Unequivocal Boost - The New York Times
He 'Went Rogue': President Trump's Staff Stunned After Latest Charlottesville Remarks - NBC News (really just showing his soul which should surprise no one)
"Of at least 372 murders that were committed by domestic extremists between 2007 and 2016, according to a study by the Anti-Defamation League, 74 percent were committed by right-wing extremists. Muslim extremists were responsible for 24 percent of those killings, and the small remainder were committed by left-wing extremists, the study concluded." One Theory Over Meaning of Trump’s ‘Many Sides’ Remark - The New York Times
++++++
CBO: Trump threat to scrap cost-sharing payments would increase federal deficits, premiums - MarketWatch; Premiums and deficit would rise if Trump ends Obamacare payments, CBO says - CBS News (Trump never mentions the consequences from withholding those cost sharing payments)
Trump retweets cartoon appearing to show train hitting CNN reporter (just more juvenile behavior from the U.S. President).
+++++
1. Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 3 Northpointe 1.2% CDs (monthly interest payments) Maturing on 12/18/17 (4 month CDs):
This bank has a five star rating from Bankrate: NORTHPOINTE BANK Review
B. Bought 2 Bank of the West 1.35% CDs Maturing on 2/13/18:
This bank has a 4 star rating from Bankrate: BANK OF THE WEST Review
C. Bought 2 People's United Bank 1.2% CDs Maturing on 11/16/2017 (3 month CDs):
Bank Holding Company: People's United Financial Inc. (PBCT)
PBCT Analyst Estimates
This operating subsidiary, People's United Bank, has a 4 star rating from Bankrate: PEOPLE'S UNITED BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION Review
D. Bought 3 Bank of India 1% CDs Maturing on 9/27/17 (one month):
C. Bought 2 People's United Bank 1.2% CDs Maturing on 11/16/2017 (3 month CDs):
Bank Holding Company: People's United Financial Inc. (PBCT)
PBCT Analyst Estimates
This operating subsidiary, People's United Bank, has a 4 star rating from Bankrate: PEOPLE'S UNITED BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION Review
D. Bought 3 Bank of India 1% CDs Maturing on 9/27/17 (one month):
E. Bought 2 Bank of the West 1.45% CDs Maturing on 5/14/18 (9 month CDs):
This bank has a four star rating from Bankrate: BANK OF THE WEST Review
$12K Inflow Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket
2. Intermediate Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
This bank has a four star rating from Bankrate: BANK OF THE WEST Review
$12K Inflow Short Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket
2. Intermediate Bond/CD Ladder Basket Strategy:
A. Bought 2 Voya 3.15% SU Bonds Maturing on 7/15/24: This is a new bond that was offered in late June 2017.
Issuer: Voya Financial Inc. (VOYA)
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (Prospectus is not linked)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at Baa2
S & P at BBB
YTM at Total Cost (99.5) = 3.206%
Current Yield at 3.141%
2016 Annual Report
B. SOLD 1 Public Service of Colorado 2.25% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 9/15/22:
Profit Snapshot: $12.15
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at A1
S & P at A
Sold at 99.818
YTM Then at 2.288%
Current Yield at 2.25%
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.503
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 2.A.
YTM Then at 2.537%
Current Yield at 2.28%
C. Bought 2 Sovran Acquisition Partner 3.5% SU Note Maturing on 7/1/26:
Issuer: Operating Subsidiary of Life Storage Inc. (LSI)- A Self-Storage REIT (fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Sovran Self Storage, now known as Life Storage
Sovran rebranded as Life Storage after acquiring Life Storage in 2016: Sovran Self Storage, Inc. Acquires LifeStorage; Sovran Self Storage, Inc. to Rebrand as Life Storage
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus is linked)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at Baa2
S & P at BBB
YTM at Total Cost (96.985) = 3.917%
Current Yield at 3.61%
$3K Inflow into Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket
3. Long Term Bond Basket: Trimming Exposure to Potentially Long Duration Exchange Traded Corporate Bonds After Building a Significant Allocation to Tennessee Municipal Bonds (mostly rated AA to AAA):
I built up earlier this year a material allocation to long term Tennessee municipal bonds, with maturities ranging from 2027 to 2045.
As a consequence of that allocation, I am trimming my long term corporate bond exposure. My potentially longest duration corporate bonds are exchange traded baby bonds.
For First Mortgage Bonds issued by Entergy subsidiaries, I am selling the long duration exchange traded bonds and buying $1K par value intermediate term maturities that have make whole protections unlike the exchange traded bonds.
I have been trading first mortgage bonds issued by Entergy subsidiaries since October 2008.
Since the issuers reserve the right to call on or after a call date, generally five years after the IPO or thereabouts, all of the ones that I bought between 2008 through 2015 have been called at par value, as the issuers were able to refinance at lower coupons and to extend the maturities further into the future.
A. Sold 50 EAI at $24.84-ROTH IRA ACCOUNT:
Profit Snapshot: +$34.57
Quote: Entergy Arkansas 1st Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066 (EAI)
Prospectus
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
I will consider buying back at a lower price than my last entry point which was $23.85: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 2.B.
EAI is a Baby Bond that is traded like a stock on the stock exchange rather than in the bond market, which explains why this security is called an Exchange Traded Bond. Par value is $25 rather than the $1K par value for bonds traded in the bond market which is why these $25 par value bonds are called baby bonds.
This Entergy Arkansas first mortgage bond was sold to the public at $25 last August. The shares declined to $20.85 shortly after issuance, bottoming around 12/12/2016: EAI Stock Charts
Interest payments are made quarterly. The issuer has the option to redeem at par on or after 9/1/21. If the issuer does not exercise its optional redemption right, the bond matures on 9/1/66.
I currently one a $1K par value Entergy Arkansas First Mortgage bond maturing in 2023: Item # 1.E. Bought 2 Entergy Arkansas 3.05% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 6/1/23:
B. Sold 50 ELC at $24.77 (used commission free trades round-trip):
Profit Snapshot: +$94.54
Quote: Entergy Louisiana LLC First Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066 (ELC)
Prospectus
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 2.B. Bought 50 ELC at $22.88 (4/13/17 Trade)
South Gent's Comment Blog # 6: Bought 30 ELC at $21.12 (11/26/16 Comment)
ELC was sold to the public at $25 per share in mid-August 2016. So the price had declined about 15% when I bought that 30 share lot at $21.12 last December. I still own that 30 share lot bought in my IB account.
I own 3 Entergy Louisiana 2.6% First Mortgage Bonds maturing in 2026: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 1.B.
4. CONTINUED to Pare Stock Allocation:
A. Sold 218+ Shares of MAPTX at $28.29:
Eliminated Position in my Fidelity Account
Trade Snapshot:
Profit Snapshot: +$2,573.82
This position originated from a small purchase made in 2004. I pared the position in 2007 as I substantially downsized my stock fund portfolio. Stocks, Bonds & Politics: 2007 STOCK FUND DISPOSITIONS
All of the distributions were taken in cash.
E.G. 2015
Dividends are paid annually:
It is not unusual to see large capital gain distributions that are connected with abnormally large shareholder redemptions which will occur in major market downdrafts.
I still own 234+ shares in my Schwab account that were bought starting in October 2013. I have been reinvesting the dividends in that account. It is not unusable for me to own the same stock fund in two or more accounts, where I reinvest the dividends in one account while taking cash payments in another.
Currently, this fund is rated four stars by Morningstar.
Through 8/11/17, the YTD total return was 21.2% which was worth harvesting by paring some shares given my prime directive of capital preservation objective.
I many add to the shares currently held in my Schwab account after a meaningful decline in price.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
B. SOLD 1 Public Service of Colorado 2.25% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 9/15/22:
Profit Snapshot: $12.15
Finra Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at A1
S & P at A
Sold at 99.818
YTM Then at 2.288%
Current Yield at 2.25%
Bought at a Total Cost of 98.503
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 2.A.
YTM Then at 2.537%
Current Yield at 2.28%
C. Bought 2 Sovran Acquisition Partner 3.5% SU Note Maturing on 7/1/26:
Issuer: Operating Subsidiary of Life Storage Inc. (LSI)- A Self-Storage REIT (fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Sovran Self Storage, now known as Life Storage
Sovran rebranded as Life Storage after acquiring Life Storage in 2016: Sovran Self Storage, Inc. Acquires LifeStorage; Sovran Self Storage, Inc. to Rebrand as Life Storage
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus is linked)
Credit Ratings:
Moody's at Baa2
S & P at BBB
YTM at Total Cost (96.985) = 3.917%
Current Yield at 3.61%
$3K Inflow into Intermediate Term Bond/CD Ladder Basket
3. Long Term Bond Basket: Trimming Exposure to Potentially Long Duration Exchange Traded Corporate Bonds After Building a Significant Allocation to Tennessee Municipal Bonds (mostly rated AA to AAA):
I built up earlier this year a material allocation to long term Tennessee municipal bonds, with maturities ranging from 2027 to 2045.
As a consequence of that allocation, I am trimming my long term corporate bond exposure. My potentially longest duration corporate bonds are exchange traded baby bonds.
For First Mortgage Bonds issued by Entergy subsidiaries, I am selling the long duration exchange traded bonds and buying $1K par value intermediate term maturities that have make whole protections unlike the exchange traded bonds.
I have been trading first mortgage bonds issued by Entergy subsidiaries since October 2008.
Since the issuers reserve the right to call on or after a call date, generally five years after the IPO or thereabouts, all of the ones that I bought between 2008 through 2015 have been called at par value, as the issuers were able to refinance at lower coupons and to extend the maturities further into the future.
A. Sold 50 EAI at $24.84-ROTH IRA ACCOUNT:
Quote: Entergy Arkansas 1st Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066 (EAI)
Prospectus
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds
I will consider buying back at a lower price than my last entry point which was $23.85: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 2.B.
EAI is a Baby Bond that is traded like a stock on the stock exchange rather than in the bond market, which explains why this security is called an Exchange Traded Bond. Par value is $25 rather than the $1K par value for bonds traded in the bond market which is why these $25 par value bonds are called baby bonds.
This Entergy Arkansas first mortgage bond was sold to the public at $25 last August. The shares declined to $20.85 shortly after issuance, bottoming around 12/12/2016: EAI Stock Charts
Interest payments are made quarterly. The issuer has the option to redeem at par on or after 9/1/21. If the issuer does not exercise its optional redemption right, the bond matures on 9/1/66.
I currently one a $1K par value Entergy Arkansas First Mortgage bond maturing in 2023: Item # 1.E. Bought 2 Entergy Arkansas 3.05% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 6/1/23:
Profit Snapshot: +$94.54
Quote: Entergy Louisiana LLC First Mortgage Bonds 4.875% due 2066 (ELC)
Prospectus
Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 2.B. Bought 50 ELC at $22.88 (4/13/17 Trade)
South Gent's Comment Blog # 6: Bought 30 ELC at $21.12 (11/26/16 Comment)
ELC was sold to the public at $25 per share in mid-August 2016. So the price had declined about 15% when I bought that 30 share lot at $21.12 last December. I still own that 30 share lot bought in my IB account.
I own 3 Entergy Louisiana 2.6% First Mortgage Bonds maturing in 2026: Stocks, Bonds & Politics: Item # 1.B.
4. CONTINUED to Pare Stock Allocation:
A. Sold 218+ Shares of MAPTX at $28.29:
Eliminated Position in my Fidelity Account
Trade Snapshot:
Profit Snapshot: +$2,573.82
This position originated from a small purchase made in 2004. I pared the position in 2007 as I substantially downsized my stock fund portfolio. Stocks, Bonds & Politics: 2007 STOCK FUND DISPOSITIONS
All of the distributions were taken in cash.
E.G. 2015
Dividends are paid annually:
It is not unusual to see large capital gain distributions that are connected with abnormally large shareholder redemptions which will occur in major market downdrafts.
I still own 234+ shares in my Schwab account that were bought starting in October 2013. I have been reinvesting the dividends in that account. It is not unusable for me to own the same stock fund in two or more accounts, where I reinvest the dividends in one account while taking cash payments in another.
Currently, this fund is rated four stars by Morningstar.
Through 8/11/17, the YTD total return was 21.2% which was worth harvesting by paring some shares given my prime directive of capital preservation objective.
I many add to the shares currently held in my Schwab account after a meaningful decline in price.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
Regional Banks: My allocation to this sector is down to fumes for one simple reason. There is no expansion in net interest rate margins. The Stock Jocks predicted there would be an expansion of net interest margins after Trump's victory and consequently poured money into this sector. The evidence clearly refutes that prediction so far. Intermediate and longer term rates are in a downtrend while short term rates paid to depositors are rising. That will lead put downward pressure on NIM.
ReplyDeleteI still own a few regional bank stocks including AROW, BBT, BDGE, BHB and WASH. I have trimmed 3 of those over the past year or so.
BHB has recently suffered a greater than 10% correction in price. I have noticed that several bank stocks, previously sold at higher prices, have fallen between 10% to 20% off their 52 week highs.
I am expecting more of a downdraft and will start to nibble again at lower prices.
It is possible that the GOP will lower corporate tax rates which will benefit regional banks.
Some cost savings changes in Dodd-Frank are still possible.
NIM expansion remains the main problem, and I do not see that changing for the better this year.
As more investors come to the same conclusion, the rational response, which is frequently a no show among Stock Jocks, would be to take prices lower.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
$52.63 -$0.43 -0.81%
Last Updated: Aug 17, 2017 at 11:49 a.m. EDT
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre
This ETF closed at $43.97 on 11/8/17 and hit a top at over $59 intra-day on 3/2/17. That move was predicated in significant part on a belief that NIM would expand under Trump's expansionary fiscal policies that was then expected to generate higher inflation and an increased spread between the banks' cost of funds and their loan yields.
Bank Charge Offs, another important factor in earnings, are not likely to get any better and are currently near historical lows. Those charges will rise and fall based on cyclical events in the economy.
Charge Off Chart 1985 to First Quarter 2017:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CORALACBN?cid=32439
NIM Chart:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USNIM
AGNCP: I noticed today that this preferred stock was being called by its issuer AGNC. The coupon is 8%. The last dividend will be $.333 per share paid on 9/15/17:
ReplyDeletehttp://ir.agnc.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=219916&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2294266
I currently own 50 shares with a total cost basis of $24.88. I will simply allow the issuer to redeem my shares.
SG
ReplyDeletelooking at NIM over the past few years , what ratio would you consider profitable for bank earnings? Do you have a number in mind? thanks Sam
Sam: The profitability is a function of the NIM and other factors including non-performing loans and charge-offs. NIM is more important for small regional banks than for banks like JPM that have other major profit centers other than plain vanilla loans to consumers and mostly small businesses.
DeleteIn other words, with an NPL ratio below 1% and charge-offs near .4% on an aggregate basis, banks with a 3% NIM would be profitable but they would have difficulty growing earnings and the dividend. Eventually, a negative credit cycle will arrive that will cause bad loans to spike and a low NIM would consequently result in lower profits or losses depending on the severity. A lot of regional banks are reporting flat or relatively flat Y-O-Y E.P.S. numbers since NIM is not expanding and credit conditions are about as good as they get, late in an economic cycle with no recession since the last one ended in June 2009.
SGP:AU: I mentioned in a comment a few weeks ago buying 500 shares of this Australian REIT at a total cost of AUD$4.26.
ReplyDeleteIn a down market, the share price was rising in trading this evening so I checked the news.
The report for the year ending 6/20/17 yesterday:
https://www.stockland.com.au/media-centre/media-releases/stockland-delivers-another-strong-performance-for-fy17
The report looked solid.
Stockland Corporation Limited (SGP.AX)
A$4.43 +0.03 (+0.68%)
As of 10:32AM AEST. Market open.
The Australian stock market index ASX is down .82%:
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets
+++
RDHL: I am near break-even on my lottery ticket position which is just 50 shares.
RDHL did manage to go up today, gaining 2.69%.
RedHill Biopharma Ltd. (RDHL)
$8.77 +$0.23 (+2.69%)
At close
There was some news today, and I do not know of its potential revenue and profit impact:
http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/08/17/1087023/0/en/RedHill-Biopharma-Announces-U-S-Commercialization-Agreement-for-FDA-Approved-GI-Product-Esomeprazole-Strontium-Delayed-Release-Capsules.html
I would attribute the slight downdraft today to an anxiety attack about Trump. The worry may have been in part a delayed reaction to a NYT article published on 8/16 that Gary Cohn, who is Jewish, was "disgusted" and "deeply upset" about Trump's comments about Charlottesville:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/16/us/politics/trump-jewish-neo-nazi-jared-kushner-ivanka.html?_r=0
Cohn and the Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who is also Jewish, are the ones keeping Bannon at bay and are at the center of Trump's "tax reform" package for rich people and corporations.
Remember that Trump said he viewed the Tiki lit night march, reminiscent of the SS marches during Hitler's regime, and concluded that there were very decent people in that march. Trump further asserted that Fake News failed to report as true Trump's reality creation.
In fact, the videos show the participants chanting the Nazi slogan "Blood and Soil" and "Jews will not replace us". No decent human being would be in that March.
Personally, I would never have accepted a job from Trump, viewing him in a most unfavorable light. I doubt that the Jews working for Trump will quit no matter how many racists comments Trump makes.
Look's like I was right about Cohn. The WP just published a story that Cohn was staying: "The White House on Thursday took the unusual step of saying that National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn would not resign"
DeleteSo Cohn wants to criticize Trump's remarks indirectly through intermediaries but is too interested in power, and a potential appointment to become the FED's Chairman, to cut his ties with Trump and his obvious racism. Power for these guys is far more important than any moral issue.
The futures have now turned up:
E-Mini S&P 500 Future Sep 2017
2,433.25 + 3.75 0.15%
Last Updated: Aug 17, 2017 at 8:52 p.m. CDT
I view it as a positive that Bannon is being ousted from the White House. However, as noted yesterday by Senator Corker (R-TN), the problem is not the staff or the advisors to the President but Trump himself.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/dickerson-bob-corkers-critique-of-trump-extraordinary/
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2017/08/observations-and-sample-of-recent_19.html